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Stochastic variance reduced gradient (SVRG) is a popular variance reduction technique for accelerating stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We provide a first analysis of the method for solving a class of linear inverse problems in the lens of the classical regularization theory. We prove that for a suitable constant step size schedule, the method can achieve an optimal convergence rate in terms of the noise level (under suitable regularity condition) and the variance of the SVRG iterate error is smaller than that by SGD. These theoretical findings are corroborated by a set of numerical experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We explore productivity convergence of container seaports using SFA-based Malmquist productivity index. • Norwegian and comparable seaports in the Nordic countries and the UK are examined. • Annual average total productivity is 9.7%, but technical efficiency regressed by −3.2%. • Norwegian seaports are best performers with regard to scale efficiency change. • Convergences are found; seaports with initially lower productivities progressed faster than those with initially higher. • Convergences exist; seaports with initially lower productivities progressed faster than those with initially higher. This paper examines the productivity of Norwegian container seaports and the extent to which the initially less productive seaports are converging/diverging in productivity in relation to the initially more productive seaports. The rationale of the paper is that productivity assessment of Norwegian seaports is scarce in the literature, and studies of convergence/divergence in container seaports are missing in the literature on transportation. The methodology used is the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA)-based Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to assess productivity. To infer productivity convergence/divergence over the years, Beta (Β) and Sigma (Γ) types of convergence/divergence are used. The data used are for the 2002–2014 period and include comparable container seaports from the Nordic countries and the UK to increase the discriminatory power in the analyses and to compare the Norwegian container seaports with their peers. The results attest that (i) there has been annual average total productivity improvement across seaports of approximately 9.7%, (ii) the productivity improvement observed has been due to improvement in pure efficiency change of approximately 11% and scale efficiency improvement of approximately 3.2% and a decrease in technical change of approximately 3.2% annually, (iii) Norwegian seaports are also experiencing productivity improvement and are best performers with regard to scale efficiency change, and (iv) there is an indication of convergence among seaports with respect to all productivity indices, suggesting that seaports with initially lower productivity indices progress faster than those with initially higher indices. A major conclusion is that the overall productivity of seaports has improved, and the productivity growth rates have converged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Brexit vote triggered a new wave of policy developments for a future outside the EU. In this context, we analyse the business performance of English hill and upland farms, characterised by marginal economic conditions but also high nature value (HNV). The analysis aims to help identify farm‐level management and policy options for greater economic, environmental and social sustainability. Business performance is measured as technical efficiency and the occurrence and persistence of abnormal profits, estimated through stochastic frontier analysis and static and dynamic panel‐data methods. The results help indicate rationales for recent trends including farm enlargement, farm family diversification, and agri‐environment scheme entry. The single farm payment is found to be negatively associated with farm technical efficiency while agri‐environmental subsidies were positively associated to short‐term farm profitability. Farm adaptation and resilience during a period of likely turbulence in external circumstances is discussed in light of these findings, as well as potential parallels with marginal HNV areas across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We use exploratory modelling to address uncertainty of transitions in the UK's mobility sector using the MATISSE model. • This allows the behaviour of complex, non-linear transitions to be mapped out. • Our analysis shows transitions to a public transport mobility regime in the UK. • Exploratory modelling enables the systematic analysis of stochastic behavioural changes. Modelling is an important approach for analysing the behaviour of sustainability transitions. However, the presence of uncertainty challenges the usefulness of models and our inference from model results. We use the example of the MATISSE agent-based model to examine conditions for a transition to a public transport mobility regime under uncertainty in the UK. We use 'exploratory modellingö to investigate the regions of model uncertainty in a structured way. Model results are generated from a wider range of input values compared to that applied normally in transitions modelling. A stochastic description of the pathways of adoption of different mobility lifestyles is developed. Our approach identifies possible transition pathways under an uncertain future in response to ranges of behavioural changes of households. A sensitivity analysis over the critical behavioural parameters also shows how the interactions between households and mobility lifestyle niches are determined by the dynamics of household behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

`The results of the stochastic dominance tests stand in marked contrast to previous empirical studies of unit trust performance. Specifically, these results suggest that trusts as a group have generally outperformed the market. While this result may be partly attributable to the short data period considered, it should be noted that when mean-variance efficiency frontiers were calculated for the same time-period, no superior portfolio performance resulted for trusts as a group (see footnote 2). consequently, it is argued here that mean-variance models which ignore the higher moments of the distribution of trust returns may well have biased downwards the performance of unit trusts relative to the market. The use of the more sensitive and discriminating stochastic dominance methods indicates their superior performance as a group over the data period considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency has become a primary energy policy goal in Europe and many countries and has conditioned the policies towards energy-intensive sectors such as road freight transport. However, energy efficiency improvements can lead to changes in the demand for energy services that offset some of the achieved energy savings in the form of rebound effects. Consequently, forecasts of energy savings can be overstated. This paper analyses the energy efficiency and rebound effects for road freight transport in 15 European countries during the 1992–2012 period. We use a recent methodology to estimate an energy demand function using a stochastic frontier analysis approach and examine the influence of key features of rebound effect in the road freight transport sector. We obtain, on average, a fuel efficiency of 89% and a rebound effect of 4%. Our results indicate that the achieved energy efficiencies are retained to a large extent. We also find, among other results, that the rebound effect is higher in countries with higher fuel efficiency and better quality of logistics. Finally, a simulation analysis shows significant environmental externalities costs even in countries with lower rebound effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an approach to probabilistically assess the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the UK. The approach proposed is based on direct stochastic simulation of the seismic input to conduct nonlinear dynamic analysis of a structural model of the NPP analysed. Therefore, it does not require the use of ground motion prediction equations and scaling/matching procedures to define suitable accelerograms as is done in conventional approaches. Additionally, as the structural response is directly calculated, it does not require the use of Monte Carlo-type algorithms to simulate the damage state of the NPP analysed. However, it demands longer use of computer resources as a relatively large number of nonlinear dynamic analyses are needed to perform. The approach is illustrated using an example of a 1000 MW Pressurised Water Reactor building located in a representative UK nuclear site. A comparison of risk assessment is made between the conventional and proposed approaches. Results obtained are reasonable and well constrained by conventional procedures; hence, it can confidently be used by the UK New Build Programme in the next two decades to generate 16 GWe of new nuclear capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-seismicity regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) pose a chal-lenge for seismic hazard analysis in view of the limited amount of locally recorded data available. In particular, ground-motion prediction is faced with the problem that most of the instrumental observations available have been recorded at large distances from small earthquakes. Direct extrapolation of the results of regression on these data to the range of magnitudes and distances relevant for the seismic hazard analysis of engineered structures generally leads to unsatisfactory predictions. The present study presents a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the UK in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA), based on the results of numeri-cal simulations using a stochastic point-source model calibrated with parameters derived from local weak-motion data. The predictions from this model are compared with those of previous GMPEs based on UK data, other GMPEs derived for stable continental regions (SCRs), as well as recent GMPEs developed for the wider European area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Given the amount of direct and indirect CO2 emissions attributable to UK households, policy makers need a good understanding of the structure of household energy expenditure and the impact of both economic and non-economic factors when considering policies to reduce future emissions. To help achieve this, the structural time series model is used here to estimate UK ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ energy expenditure equations for 1964–2009. This allows for the estimation of a stochastic trend to measure the underlying energy expenditure trend and hence capture the non-trivial impact of ‘non-economic factors’ on household ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ energy expenditure; as well as the impact of the traditional ‘economic factors’ of income and price. The estimated equations are used to show that given current expectations, CO2 attributable to ‘transport’ and ‘housing’ expenditures will not fall by 29% (or 40%) in 2020 compared to 1990, and is therefore not consistent with the latest UK total CO2 reduction target. Hence, the message for policy makers is that in addition to economic incentives such as taxes, which might be needed to help restrain future energy expenditure, other policies that attempt to influence lifestyles and behaviours also need to be considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

SUMMARY The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio-economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high socio-economic status is never worse than having one with a lower status. Using existing inferential procedures for testing unconditional stochastic monotonicity, we first test a set of 149 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 different countries and find that monotonicity cannot be rejected in hardly any table. In addition, we propose new testing procedures for testing conditional stochastic monotonicity and investigate whether monotonicity still holds after conditioning on a number of covariates such as education, cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Based on the NCDS cohort data from the UK, our results provide evidence that monotonicity holds, even conditionally. Moreover, we do not find large differences in our results when comparing social class and wage class mobility. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Interdependence of the interest rates of the US, the UK, and Japan is analyzed in this work by means of spectral analysis and network methods. A predominant effective factor in the interest rate market is which country floats a bond issue, and a minor effective factor is time to maturity of bonds. Power-law cross-correlation among different countries is analyzed by the detrended cross-correlation analysis method. Long-range cross-correlation is found between the first factors of interest rate, while there is no cross-correlation between some of the second factors. The tail dependency is indicated by tail indices from Archimedean copulas, including an empirical copula. In contrast to other pairs, the US–UK first factor pair has tail dependencies in both the upper-tail and lower-tail. Dynamic properties of interest rate are modeled by a stochastic volatility model. The properties of mean reverting and volatility clustering are observed and reflected in this model. The proposed simulation method combines the dependence structures and the factor dynamics model; it simultaneously describes the interest rates of different countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The reduction of CO2 emissions linked with human activities (mainly energy services and transport), together with the increased use of renewable energies, remain high priorities on various political agendas. However, considering the increased consumption of energy services (especially electricity), and the stochastic nature of some of the most promising renewable energies (wind for instance), the challenge is to find the optimal mix of technologies that will provide the energy services, without increasing the CO2 emissions, but nonetheless ensuring reliability of supply. The focus of this paper is to present the DESDOP tool, based on mixed integer linear optimisation technics, that helps giving insight in the optimal mix of technologies that will simultaneously help decrease the emissions while at the same time guarantee resilience of supply. The results show that while it is not yet possible to avoid electricity from the grid completely (hence nuclear or fossil fuel), CO2 reductions up to 20%, at no extra costs compared to the business-as-usual case, are easily achievable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In light of continuing mixed results in the literature, this paper re-examines the German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) and considers whether the UK should join the Eurozone. For this purpose, short-term interest rate relationships between the UK, Germany, the Eurozone and the USA, for the period January 1982 to June 2007, are studied. The policy implication of a loss of monetary autonomy for the UK in favour of Germany or the European Central Bank (ECB) would give support to the UK joining the EMU as an economic response. From the early 1980s the Bundesbank's responsibility was to use money growth targets to keep average inflation rate down in the long run. This long run objective suggests that an appropriate methodology for testing the GDH is to test whether the German stochastic trend is a driving stochastic trend. In other words we determine whether a permanent shock to the German interest rate has a permanent effect on the UK interest rate. To this end the structural shocks in a VECM are identified by imposing long-run restrictions of the type developed in King et al. (1991). We apply the same techniques to testing whether the UK has suffered a loss of monetary autonomy in favour of the ECB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: International cost efficiency benchmarking played a central role in informing the Office of Rail Regulation''s (ORR) determination of Network Rail''s future funding during the 2008 periodic review (PR08) of the company''s finances. This paper sets out how international benchmarking can inform a regulator''s decisions on efficiency and, in particular, how international econometric studies can be used alongside other evidence in the regulatory context. We start by reviewing the use of previous international benchmarking work. We then set out the data, methodology and results in respect of the two separate econometric studies carried out as part of PR08. The further work that was done in support of the econometric results is then described. The paper shows that top-down econometric techniques, combined with bottom-up engineering analysis produced a robust comparison between Network Rail and its peers. We conclude by outlining how the econometric results were used, in conjunction with other evidence, to reach a final efficiency determination, and how we consider that international benchmarking can be applied by other regulators. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The decline in the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) demands a review of control strategies to ensure that they remain proportionate. Amongst controls that are subject to review are those intended to minimise the risk of BSE exposure of consumers through food. Such risk mitigation steps are costly, and the relative impact of each in terms of human exposure to BSE infectivity is not known. This risk assessment, termed the BSE Control Model, aims to estimate by use of stochastic simulation the impact of testing of cattle at slaughter and the removal of Specified Risk Materials (SRM) on potential BSE infectivity consumed. This paper describes the use of the model to investigate the effect of different risk management methods that have been or could be implemented between 2005 and 2010. Our results suggest that the amount of infectivity consumed in 2005 with the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule in place was a mean of 0.03 bovine oral ID50 (BO ID50). This is an extremely low amount, particularly considering that it would be spread over, on average, 236 infected carcases that would be further sub-divided into portions for human consumption. The highest contributor to the total amount of infectivity consumed per year is spinal contamination at carcase splitting (35%). In 2006 the OTM scheme was discontinued and head meat was again permitted into the food chain. These changes resulted in an increase in the amount of infectivity consumed, rising to an estimated 28 BO ID50 in 2006, and 19 BO ID50 in 2007. In 2008 the age at removal of vertebral column was raised from 24 to 30 months, and an estimated 24 BO ID50 of infectivity was consumed. At the beginning of 2009 the age at testing of cattle was raised to 48 months for healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter and fallen stock. Under these conditions, an estimated mean of 24 BO ID50 will be consumed in 2009, decreasing to 20 BO ID50 in 2010. Even though presented in terms of bovine rather than human oral ID50, such estimates represent an extremely low exposure of the British population. Considerable uncertainty would surround any attempt to try to convert such exposure into estimates of new cases of vCJD, but the most recent estimates of the size of the species barrier between cattle and humans (4000, ) suggest that there would be few, if any, new cases of vCJD arising from such exposure levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, I use stock return data to test an intertemporal model of the current account. I find that the model performs well in three countries: the U.K., Canada, and Japan. Hall [Hall, R.E., 1978. Stochastic implication of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence. J. Polit. Econ. 86 (6), 971–987] points out that because stock price predicts the future state of the economy, it predicts consumption. Assuming that consumption depends on permanent income, my empirical finding indicates that a representative agent smoothes consumption based on stock market information. In other words, stock market returns yield information about permanent income. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, the latent stochastic frontier model is used to estimate the technical efficiency of UK airports. These airports are ranked according to their technical efficiency for the period 2000-06 and the airports are disentangled and segmented by the cost frontier model, which leads us to advise the implementation of policies by segments. Economic implications arising from the study are also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: One of the main uses of an epidemic model is to predict the scale of an outbreak from the first few cases. In a homogeneous and non-spatial model there is a straightforward relationship between the basic reproductive ratio, , and the final epidemic size; however when there is a significant spatial component to disease spread and the population is heterogeneous predicting how the epidemic size varies with the initial source of infection is far more complex. Here we use a well-developed spatio-temporal model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, parameterised to match the 2001 UK outbreak, to address the relationship between the scale of the epidemic and the nature of the initially infected farm. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in both the likelihood of a epidemic and the epidemic impact (total number of farms losing livestock to either infection or control) and that these two elements are best captured by measurements at different spatial scales. The likelihood of an epidemic can be predicted from a knowledge of the reproduction ratio of the initial farm , whereas the epidemic impact conditional on an epidemic occurring is best predicted by averaging the second-generation reproduction ratio in a 58km ring around the infected farm. Combining these two predictions provides a good assessment of both the local and larger-scale heterogeneities present in this complex system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We consider the pricing of life insurance contracts under stochastic mortality and interest rates assumed not independent of each other. Employing the method of change of measure together with the Bayes’ rule for conditional expectations, solution expressions for the value of common contracts are obtained. A demonstration of how to apply our proposed stochastic modelling approach to value survival and death benefits is provided. Using the Human Mortality Database and UK interest rates, we illustrate that the dependence between interest rate and mortality dynamics has considerable impact in the value of even a simple survival benefit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The design of water distribution networks is a large-scale combinatorial, non-linear optimisation problem, involving many complex implicit constraint sets, such as nodal mass balance and energy conservation, which are commonly satisfied through the use of hydraulic network solvers. These problem properties have motivated several prior studies to use stochastic search optimisation, because these derivative-free global search algorithms have been shown to obtain higher quality solutions for large network design problems. Global stochastic search methods, however, require many iterations to be performed in order to achieve a satisfactory solution, and each iteration may involve running computationally expensive simulations. Recently, this problem has been compounded by the evident need to embrace more than a single measure of performance into the design process, since by nature multi-objective optimisation methods require even more iterations. The use of metamodels as surrogates for the expensive simulation functions has been investigated as a possible remedy to this problem. However, the identification of reliable surrogates is not always a viable alternative. Under these circumstances, methods that are capable of achieving a satisfactory level of performance with a limited number of function evaluations represent a valuable alternative. This paper represents a first step towards filling this gap. Two recently introduced multi-objective, hybrid algorithms, ParEGO and LEMMO, are tested on the design problem of a real medium-size network in Southern Italy, and a real large-size network in the UK under a scenario of a severely restricted number of function evaluations. The results obtained suggest that the use of both algorithms, in particular LEMMO, could be successfully extended to the efficient design of large-scale water distribution networks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The UK Government has introduced a new class of health service providers called Treatment Centres that provide routine elective services but that do not deal with emergency cases or non-routine elective patients. The introduction of these centres provides a possible mechanism for improving the efficiency of service delivery in terms of overall capacity requirements. In this paper we discuss a mathematical modelling approach that has been used to examine circumstances under which such benefits might be realised. As an illustration of the analysis, we present results obtained using data concerning urological services, for which there would seem to be benefits associated with the introduction of a TC in only a limited range of circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK. Existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on whether or not regional house prices exhibit long-run convergence with each other. The application is proposed of a new test involving unit root testing of the first principal component based on regional-national house price differentials. Using mix-adjusted quarterly data for 1973-2006, it is found that the first principal component is stationary. This suggests that all UK regional house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend. Further analysis suggests that those regions that are more distant from London exhibit the highest degrees of persistence with respect to deviations in house price differentials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we develop a test of infinite order degree stochastic dominance based on the use of the empirical Laplace transform function. Two applications are considered. One uses the income data of Anderson (Econometrica 64:1183–1193, ) and derives results consistent with his. In the other application we examine the dominance between the U.S. and U.K. stock markets. Using data on the S&P 500 and the FTALL-Share we show that the U.S. displays infinite order degree stochastic dominance of the U.K. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microsimulation models are commonly used to examine the distributional impact of reforms of the means-tested benefit system. Take-up behaviour is related to the level of entitlement, so reform may induce changes in take-up. We develop a stochastic simulation method and apply it to a probit model of ‘income support’ take-up by the UK pensioners. The method allows us to adjust net income for the welfare losses because of tangible or intangible claim costs. Endogenous take-up and claim costs both have an important impact on the simulated outcomes of the policy reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares two types of volatility models for returns, ARCH-type and stochastic volatility (SV) models, both from a theoretical and an empirical point of view. In particular a GARCH(1,1) model, an EGARCH(1,1) model and a log-normal AR(1) stochastic volatility model are considered. The three models are estimated on UK stock data: a series of the British equity index FTSE100 is used to estimate the relevant parameters. Diagnostic tests are implemented to evaluate how well the models fit the data. The models are used to obtain daily volatility forecasts and these volatilities are used to estimate the “VaR” on a simple one-unit position on FTSE100. The VaR accuracy is tested by means of a backtest. While the results do not lead to a straightforward preference between GARCH(1,1) and SV, the EGARCH shows the best performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some recent developments in the stochastic modelling of single site and spatial rainfall are summarised. Alternative single site models based on Poisson cluster processes are introduced, fitting methods are discussed, and performance is compared for representative UK hourly data. The representation of sub-hourly rainfall is discussed, and results from a temporal disaggregation scheme are presented. Extension of the Poisson process methods to spatial-temporal rainfall, using radar data, is reported. Current methods assume spatial and temporal stationarity; work in progress seeks to relax these restrictions. Unlike radar data, long sequences of daily raingauge data are commonly available, and the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) (which can represent both temporal and spatial non-stationarity) to represent the spatial structure of daily rainfall based on raingauge data is illustrated for a network in the North of England. For flood simulation, disaggregation of daily rainfall is required. A relatively simple methodology is described, in which a single site Poisson process model provides hourly sequences, conditioned on the observed or GLM-simulated daily data. As a first step, complete spatial dependence is assumed. Results from the River Lee catchment, near London, are promising. A relatively comprehensive set of methodologies is thus provided for hydrological application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the idea of stochastic dominance, the long-run post-merger stock performance of UK acquiring firms is studied. Performance is compared by using the entire distribution of returns rather than only the mean as in traditional event studies. The main results are as follows: First, it is found that, in general, acquiring firms do not significantly underperform in three years after merger since no evidence of first- or second-order stochastic dominance relation between acquirer and benchmark portfolios is observed. Second, it is found that acquirers paying excessively large premiums are stochastically dominated by their benchmark portfolio implying that overpayment is a possible reason for post-merger underperformance. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that cash financed mergers outperform stock financed ones. Finally, no evidence is observed that glamour acquirers underperform value ones as no stochastic dominance relations between the two. In general, the results underline the importance of examining long-run post-merger stock performance from alternative perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article modifies and extends the test against nonstationary stochastic seasonality proposed by Canova and Hansen. A simplified form of the test statistic in which the nonparametric correction for serial correlation is based on estimates of the spectrum at the seasonal frequencies is considered and shown to have the same asymptotic distribution as the original formulation. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of the seasonality test statistics is not affected by the inclusion of trends, even when modified to allow for structural breaks, or by the inclusion of regressors with nonseasonal unit roots. A parametric version of the test is proposed, and its performance is compared with that of the nonparametric test using Monte Carlo experiments. A test that allows for breaks in the seasonal pattern is then derived. It is shown that its asymptotic distribution is independent of the break point, and its use is illustrated with a series on U.K. marriages. A general test against any form of permanent seasonality, deterministic or stochastic, is suggested and compared with a Wald test for the significance of fixed seasonal dummies. It is noted that tests constructed in a similar way can be used to detect trading-day effects. An appealing feature of the proposed test statistics is that under the null hypothesis, they all have asymptotic distributions belonging to the Cramér-von Mises family. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigates the stochastic structure of time-varying betas from companies in Great Britain. Estimation of time-varying betas by means of the bivariate MA-GARCH model; Investigation of the stochastic structure by means of two fractional integration tests, the Geweke and Porter-Hudak and the Robinson tests, and a structural-break-oriented unit root test.

Presents stochastic analysis of the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Evidence of the infection dynamics; Examination of spatial distribution, sizes and species composition; Assessment on the duration of epidemic and control strategies.

Presents information on a study which analyzed variants on the HI-LO gaming problem from a stochastic dynamic programming perspective. Pictorial overview of variable wager HI-LO, round by round; Card layout for the British television quiz program `Play Your Cards Right' (PYCR); Analysis of two contrasting PYCR to illustrate application of the dynamic programming procedure.

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between postwar, quarterly UK consumption, investment and income within a VAR framework. Use is made of two developments which allow sets of restrictions to be tested and imposed, and which potentially make the VAR framework much more economically interpretable. One set is placed by neoclassical growth theory and involves the presence of common stochastic trends linking the secular movement of the series (i.e. the great ratios), while the other set is placed by notions of common, or more generally, codependent cycles which have their origin in ideas of comovements between growth rates. Evidence is found to support the existence of the great ratios for the UK, and evidence is also found of a codependent cycle of order one in the growth rates of consumption, investment and income, so that although the cycles are not exactly synchronized, the response of the three growth rates to a shock will be similar from two quarters after the shock has occurred. Moreover, it is lagged consumption shocks that are primarily driving the cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The profile DSR estimation method features a better balance of error compared with previous methods. • Clustering of detailed usage data to create profiles is a viable approach for improving DSR estimation. • Profiles can provide greater account of estimation uncertainty compared to existing deterministic methods. In principle, Demand Side Response (DSR) is increasingly seen as a critical component of a low-carbon electricity network with renewables as main sources of generation. In practice, DSR has been slow to emerge in most electricity markets of developed and developing countries. One of the main reasons for the slow penetration of DSR is the difficulty to assess the flexibility potential of individual sites. This paper develops a new DSR estimation method which uses detailed profiles information based on data on Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) chillers in five UK hotels between 2013 and 2017 and applies a combination of clustering analysis and subsequent stochastic sampling using cluster-weighted date-based predictors. Findings show that the profile DSR estimation method features a better balance of error compared with previous methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY This paper summarizes the results of research undertaken during the last few years with a triple motivation. Firstly, it was desired to illustrate the feasibility of estimating complex non-linear economic models, when the non-linearities occur in variables and parameters. Secondly, though the richness of the vintage putty-clay model has long been realized, there are few reported empirical studies of the model and so this appeared to be an area ripe for development. Thirdly, it was hoped that in adopting the putty-clay technology assumption economically more plausible results would be obtained from estimating the developed model for the UK than had previously been obtained for a putty-putty technology model. The production relation estimated has the general form: Q(t) = B(t)N(t)[sup n]H(t)[sup m] ...(1) ignoring stochastic error terms, when Q(t) is the level of production, N(t) the employment of labour and H(t) the hours worked at time t. This functional form is very similar to that of the standard short run putty-putty production function (e.g. Brechling [6] or Ball and St Cyr [1]), but a difference lies in the specification of B(t). In putty-putty models B(t) is usually represented by a scale factor and an exponential trend, whereas in the model presented here B(t) is a function of past investment, the economic life of equipment, past and expected future prices, and exponential rates of discount, deterioration, and embodied and dismbodied technical progress. The adopted approach assumes that there is a single output Q(t) and analyses the short-run behaviour of production and employment for the capacity determined by past investment. Particular functional forms are chosen for the UK aggregate ex-ante production function and the ex-post or utilization function, rather than building up information about them via isoquant maps and capacity distributions as in the Johansen approach [18, chapter 9]. In fact, Johansen is able to adhere much [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of thesis titles for higher degrees taken entirely by dissertation in the academic years 1987-88 and early 1988-89 in Great Britain. "Economics and Modes of Security in the Philosophy of History," by R. J. Blackburn; "Capital and Inventory Investment: Essays in Stochastic Economic Theory," by S. Modica; "Bounded Beliefs and Keynesian Speculation," by P. B. Seabright; "Essays on Cooperation and Communication in Microeconomics Theory," by U. Zachau; Others.

An eight equation dynamic model of aggregate demand in the United Kingdom is estimated by a variety of methods which make different assumptions about, and provide different treatments of, the problems of simultaneity and serial correlation, the latter being both within and between equations. Although the system appears to perform quite well on conventional criteria, the alternative estimators reveal a number of misspecifications and demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to estimator choice. The paper also considers the methodological problems involved in estimating dynamic simultaneous equation models with possibly auto-correlated errors using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dairy quotas were introduced in April 1984. Since then, producers have been adjusting their production systems to cope with a constraint on milk output. In this paper, stochastic production functions are used to examine both allocative efficiency of input use and technical efficiency in the industry during the post-quota period. The results indicate that producers have successfully adjusted the use of the variable input, feed, to optimal levels but are finding it more difficult to adjust quasi-fixed inputs such as labour, land, machinery and the herd size. Technical efficiency has remained relatively constant.
Production quotas were imposed on the dairy sector by the EC in April 1984 and since then policy-makers have been examining the sector's performance closely. During this post-quota period, farmers have been operating in a constrained environment. Consequently, they have become more aware of potential efficiencies and there is now a greater need to monitor the dairy industry at both farm and sector levels. This paper examines some indicators of performance in the dairy sector in England and Wales since 1984 using stochastic frontier production functions and discusses their implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of the statistical cost curve are usually derived using the least squares technique, with the implication that the deviations from the fitted relationship are normally distributed. However, a theoretical restriction on the distribution of the disturbances implies that the least squares technique is inappropriate. An alternative specification and estimation technique are considered and applied in a study of the operating costs of British crematoria.
This paper adopts a more rigorous approach to statistical cost analysis (SCA) and the estimation of the efficient scale of production. The assumption of normally distributed disturbances is inconsistent with economic theory. Consequently, a more appropriate specification of the model is considered, together with an estimation technique, which is in turn applied in the study of the operating costs of public crematoria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence from cointegration theory points towards the efficiency of the London Metal Exchange Ltd. We show that on theoretical grounds this evidence could be misleading. We also conduct multivariate and univariate unit roots tests on prices of three different metals, namely: copper, lead and zinc. The price data are seasonal and unadjusted quarterly data from the London Metal Exchange and they cover the period from 1972.1-1987.4. The evidence presented here supports the presence of common stochastic trends in metal price movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY A model has been developed to reproduce temperature behaviour in respect of the variations that occur from day to day, month to month and year to year. The model has been designed to cover all times of year, but searching quantitative study has so far been confined to the winter months, these being particularly crucial to the Gas Industry. The structure of the model is explained and a description is given of how the model was fitted, evaluated and simulated. Results are presented for Renfrew, Bradford and Hastings weather stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]