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In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches were used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19-related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t). These candidate models use different modelling approaches or differing assumptions about spatial or age-mixing, and some capture genuine uncertainty in scientific understanding of disease dynamics. Combining estimates using appropriate statistical methodology from multiple candidate models is important to better understand the variation of these outcome measures to help inform decision-making. In this paper, we combine estimates for specific UK nations/regions using random-effects meta-analyses techniques, utilising the restricted maximum-likelihood (REML) method to estimate the heterogeneity variance parameter, and two approaches to calculate the confidence interval for the combined estimate: the standard Wald-type and the Knapp and Hartung (KNHA) method. As estimates in this setting are derived using model predictions, each with varying degrees of uncertainty, equal-weighting is favoured over the standard inverse-variance weighting to avoid potential up-weighting of models providing estimates with lower levels of uncertainty that are not fully accounting for inherent uncertainties. Both equally-weighted models using REML alone and REML+KNHA approaches were found to provide similar variation for R(t) and r(t), with both approaches providing wider, and therefore more conservative, confidence intervals around the combined estimate compared to the standard inverse-variance weighting approach. Utilising these meta-analysis techniques has allowed for statistically robust combined estimates to be calculated for key COVID-19 outcome measures. This in turn allows timely and informed decision-making based on all available information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Amniotic fluid embolism (AFE) remains one of the principal reported causes of direct maternal mortality in high-income countries. However, obtaining robust information about the condition is challenging because of its rarity and its difficulty to diagnose. This study aimed to pool data from multiple countries in order to describe risk factors, management, and outcomes of AFE and to explore the impact on the findings of considering United Kingdom, international, and United States AFE case definitions.Methods and Findings: A population-based cohort and nested case-control study was conducted using the International Network of Obstetric Survey Systems (INOSS). Secondary data on women with AFE (n = 99-218, depending on case definition) collected prospectively in population-based studies conducted in Australia, France, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and the UK were pooled along with secondary data on a sample of control women (n = 4,938) collected in Australia and the UK. Risk factors for AFE were investigated by comparing the women with AFE in Australia and the UK with the control women identified in these countries using logistic regression. Factors associated with poor maternal outcomes (fatality and composite of fatality or permanent neurological injury) amongst women with AFE from each of the countries were investigated using logistic regression or Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The estimated incidence of AFE ranged from 0.8-1.8 per 100,000 maternities, and the proportion of women with AFE who died or had permanent neurological injury ranged from 30%-41%, depending on the case definition. However, applying different case definitions did not materially alter findings regarding risk factors for AFE and factors associated with poor maternal outcomes amongst women with AFE. Using the most liberal case definition (UK) and adjusting for the severity of presentation when appropriate, women who died were more likely than those who survived to present with cardiac arrest (89% versus 40%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 10.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.93-28.48, p < 0.001) and less likely to have a source of concentrated fibrinogen (40% versus 56%, aOR 0.44, 95% CI 0.21-0.92, p = 0.029) or platelets given (24% versus 49%, aOR 0.23, 95% CI 0.10-0.52, p < 0.001). They also had a lower dose of tranexamic acid (median dose 0.7 g versus 2 g, p = 0.035) and were less likely to have had an obstetrician and/or anaesthetist present at the time of the AFE (61% versus 75%, aOR 0.38, 95% CI 0.16-0.90, p = 0.027). Limitations of the study include limited statistical power to examine factors associated with poor maternal outcome and the potential for residual confounding or confounding by indication.Conclusions: The findings of our study suggest that when an AFE is suspected, initial supportive obstetric care is important, but having an obstetrician and/or anaesthetist present at the time of the AFE event and use of interventions to correct coagulopathy, including the administration of an adequate dose of tranexamic acid, may be important to improve maternal outcome. Future research should focus on early detection of the coagulation deficiencies seen in AFE alongside the role of tranexamic acid and other coagulopathy management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Maternal cardiac arrest is a complex and demanding clinical situation requiring a well-attuned team effort of healthcare workers of multiple disciplines. A recent report on maternal cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom reported a rise in incidence over a span of 10 years, while maternal mortality increased in the United States between 2000 and 2014. However, reported causes of maternal cardiac arrest differed between both countries.Objective(s): To determine the incidence, causes and management of maternal cardiac arrest in the Netherlands and compare incidence with previous estimates in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.Study Design: Using the Netherlands Obstetric Surveillance System, all Dutch cases of maternal cardiac arrest during a three-year period (2013-2016) were prospectively collected. Complete casefile copies were obtained for analysis. Main outcome measures were incidence of maternal cardiac arrest and cardiac arrest in pregnancy, use of perimortem caesarean section if appropriate and maternal death.Results: The monthly card return rate was 97%; 18 women with cardiac arrest during pregnancy and 20 postpartum met the inclusion criteria. Incidence of maternal cardiac arrest was 7.6 per 100,000 pregnancies and 3.6 per 100,000 pregnancies excluding postpartum maternal cardiac arrest. Main causes were pulmonary embolism (n = 9), major obstetric hemorrhage (n = 7) and amniotic fluid embolism (n = 6). Aortocaval compression relief and perimortem caesarean section were performed in 9/14 (29%) and 11/14 (79%) respectively in pregnancies 20 weeks gestational age onwards. Twenty-two women died, representing a case fatality rate of 58% (95% CI 42-72%).Conclusion(s): There is a higher incidence of cardiac arrest in pregnancy compared to both previous estimates in the Netherlands and recently established figures in the United Kingdom. Main causes of maternal cardiac arrest are potentially preventable and/or treatable complications of pregnancy. Insufficient use of critical elements of obstetric resuscitation identifies the need for enhanced obstetric emergency training for obstetric and non-obstetric first responders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common cause of disability in the elderly. Clinical frailty is associated with high mortality, but few studies have explored the relationship between OA and frailty. The objective of this study was to consider the association between OA and frailty/pre-frailty in an elderly population comprised of six European cohorts participating in the EPOSA project.Methods: Longitudinal study using baseline data and first follow-up waves, from EPOSA; 2,455 individuals aged 65-85 years were recruited from pre-existing population-based cohorts in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Data were collected on clinical OA at any site (hand, knee or hip), based on the clinical classification criteria developed by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR). Frailty was defined according to Fried's criteria. The covariates considered were age, gender, educational level, obesity and country. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyse the associations between OA, frailty/pre-frailty and other covariates.Results: The overall prevalence of clinical OA at any site was 30.4 % (95 % CI:28.6-32.2); frailty was present in 10.2 % (95 % CI:9.0-11.4) and pre-frailty in 51.0 % (95 % CI:49.0-53.0). The odds of frailty was 2.96 (95 % CI:2.11-4.16) and pre-frailty 1.54 (95 % CI:1.24-1.91) as high among OA individuals than those without OA. The association remained when Knee OA, hip OA or hand OA were considered separately, and was stronger in those with increasing number of joints.Conclusions: Clinical OA is associated with frailty and pre-frailty in older adults in European countries. This association might be considered when designing appropriate intervention strategies for OA management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Recent studies have consistently shown that amongst staff working with MRI, transient symptoms directly attributable to the MRI system including dizziness, nausea, tinnitus, and concentration problems are reported. This study assessed symptom prevalence and incidence in radiographers and other staff working with MRI in healthcare in the UK. Methods: One hundred and four volunteer staff from eight sites completed a questionnaire and kept a diary to obtain information on subjective symptoms and work practices, and wore a magnetic field dosimeter during one to three randomly selected working days. Incidence of MRI-related symptoms was obtained for all shifts and prevalence of MRI-related and reference symptoms was associated to explanatory factors using ordinal regression. Results: Incident symptoms related to working with MRI were reported in 4 % of shifts. Prevalence of MRI-related, but not reference symptoms were associated with number of hours per week working with MRI, shift length, and stress, but not with magnetic field strength (1.5 and 3 T) or measured magnetic field exposure. Conclusions: Reporting of prevalent symptoms was associated with longer duration of working in MRI departments, but not with measured field strength of exposure. Other factors related to organisation and stress seem to contribute to increased reporting of MRI-related symptoms. Key Points: • Routine work with MRI is associated with increased reporting of transient symptoms • No link to the strength of the magnetic field was demonstrated. • Organisational factors and stress additionally contribute to reporting of MRI-related symptoms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that in order to take into account changes in the governance era, performance assessment at the local level may well have to be refocused. Researchers will have to reconsider their strategies. They should consider the governance character of public administration and pay attention to co-operative settings and democratic aspects. In addition, researchers should think not just about gathering facts about the performance of local government, they should also try to contribute to a learning process. This paper presents a new strategy for assessing the capacity that local governments have to get things done. This strategy acknowledges the governance context of local authorities and casts a keen eye on the way local governments fulfil their functions and aim to involve various stakeholders. The evaluation of this assessment strategy shows its relevance, although minor improvements could be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the characteristics and outcomes of people who initiated different antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens during the era of integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs)., Design: UK-based observational cohort study., Methods: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study participants were included if they had started ART between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2017. Virological failure was defined as the first of two consecutive plasma HIV RNA more than 50 copies/ml, at least 6 months after starting ART. Follow-up was censored at ART discontinuation, class switch or death. The risk of virological failure among those on INSTI, protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) regimens was compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods., Results: Of 12 585 participants, 45.6% started a NNRTI, 29.0% a protease inhibitor and 25.4% an INSTI regimen. Over a median follow-up of 20.3 months (interquartile range 7.9-38.9), 7.5% of participants experienced virological failure. Compared with those starting an NNRTI regimen, people receiving INSTIs or protease inhibitors were more likely to experience virological failure: INSTI group adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.95, P = 0.0009; protease inhibitor group adjusted hazard ratio 2.70, 95% confidence interval 2.27-3.21, P less than 0.0001, likelihood ratio test P less than 0.0001., Conclusion: First-line INSTI regimens were associated with a lower risk of virological failure than protease inhibitor regimens but both groups were more likely to experience virological failure than those initiating treatment with a NNRTI. There is likely to be residual channelling bias resulting from selected use of INSTIs and protease inhibitors in specific clinical contexts, including in those with a perceived risk of poor adherence.