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We present a systematic assessment of polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction across more than 1,500 traits using genetic and phenotype data in the UK Biobank. We report 813 sparse PRS models with significant (p < 2.5 x 10−5) incremental predictive performance when compared against the covariate-only model that considers age, sex, types of genotyping arrays, and the principal component loadings of genotypes. We report a significant correlation between the number of genetic variants selected in the sparse PRS model and the incremental predictive performance (Spearman's ⍴ = 0.61, p = 2.2 x 10−59 for quantitative traits, ⍴ = 0.21, p = 9.6 x 10−4 for binary traits). The sparse PRS model trained on European individuals showed limited transferability when evaluated on non-European individuals in the UK Biobank. We provide the PRS model weights on the Global Biobank Engine (https://biobankengine.stanford.edu/prs). Author summary: Polygenic risk score (PRS), an approach to estimate genetic predisposition on disease liability by aggregating the effects across multiple genetic variants, has attracted increasing research interest. While there have been improvements in the predictive performance of PRS for some traits, the applicability of PRS models across a wide range of human traits has not been clear. Here, applying penalized regression using Batch Screening Iterative Lasso (BASIL) algorithm to more than 269,000 individuals of white British ancestry in UK Biobank, we systematically characterize PRS models across more than 1,500 traits. We report 813 traits with PRS models of statistically significant predictive performance. While the statistical significance does not necessarily directly translate into clinical relevance, we investigate the properties of the 813 significant PRS models and report a significant correlation between predictive performance and estimated SNP-based heritability. We find that the number of genetic variants selected in our sparse PRS model is significantly correlated with the incremental predictive performance in both quantitative and binary traits. Our transferability assessment of PRS models in UK Biobank revealed that the sparse PRS models trained on individuals of European ancestry had a lower predictive performance for individuals of African and Asian ancestry groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation The prediction performance of Cox proportional hazard model suffers when there are only few uncensored events in the training data. Results We propose a Sparse-Group regularized Cox regression method to improve the prediction performance of large-scale and high-dimensional survival data with few observed events. Our approach is applicable when there is one or more other survival responses that 1. has a large number of observed events; 2. share a common set of associated predictors with the rare event response. This scenario is common in the UK Biobank dataset where records for a large number of common and less prevalent diseases of the same set of individuals are available. By analyzing these responses together, we hope to achieve higher prediction performance than when they are analyzed individually. To make this approach practical for large-scale data, we developed an accelerated proximal gradient optimization algorithm as well as a screening procedure inspired by Qian et al. Availabilityandimplementation https://github.com/rivas-lab/multisnpnet-Cox [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Biobank is a very large, prospective population-based cohort study across the United Kingdom. It provides unprecedented opportunities for researchers to investigate the relationship between genotypic information and phenotypes of interest. Multiple regression methods, compared with genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have already been showed to greatly improve the prediction performance for a variety of phenotypes. In the high-dimensional settings, the lasso, since its first proposal in statistics, has been proved to be an effective method for simultaneous variable selection and estimation. However, the large-scale and ultrahigh dimension seen in the UK Biobank pose new challenges for applying the lasso method, as many existing algorithms and their implementations are not scalable to large applications. In this paper, we propose a computational framework called batch screening iterative lasso (BASIL) that can take advantage of any existing lasso solver and easily build a scalable solution for very large data, including those that are larger than the memory size. We introduce snpnet, an R package that implements the proposed algorithm on top of glmnet and optimizes for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets. It currently supports ℓ1-penalized linear model, logistic regression, Cox model, and also extends to the elastic net with ℓ1/ℓ2 penalty. We demonstrate results on the UK Biobank dataset, where we achieve competitive predictive performance for all four phenotypes considered (height, body mass index, asthma, high cholesterol) using only a small fraction of the variants compared with other established polygenic risk score methods. Author summary: With the advent and evolution of large-scale and comprehensive biobanks, there come up unprecedented opportunities for researchers to further uncover the complex landscape of human genetics. One major direction that attracts long-standing interest is the investigation of the relationships between genotypes and phenotypes. This includes but doesn't limit to the identification of genotypes that are significantly associated with the phenotypes, and the prediction of phenotypic values based on the genotypic information. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is a very powerful and widely used framework for the former task, having produced a number of very impactful discoveries. However, when it comes to the latter, its performance is fairly limited by the univariate nature. To address this, multiple regression methods have been suggested to fill in the gap. That said, challenges emerge as the dimension and the size of datasets both become large nowadays. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework that enables us to solve efficiently the entire lasso or elastic-net solution path on large-scale and ultrahigh-dimensional data, and therefore make simultaneous variable selection and prediction. Our approach can build on any existing lasso solver for small or moderate-sized problems, scale it up to a big-data solution, and incorporate other extensions easily. We provide a package snpnet that extends the glmnet package in R and optimizes for large phenotype-genotype data. On the UK Biobank, we observe competitive prediction performance of the lasso and the elastic-net for all four phenotypes considered from the UK Biobank. That said, the scope of our approach goes beyond genetic studies. It can be applied to general sparse regression problems and build scalable solution for a variety of distribution families based on existing solvers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a scalable and highly efficient algorithm to fit a Cox proportional hazard model by maximizing the $L^1$-regularized (Lasso) partial likelihood function, based on the Batch Screening Iterative Lasso (BASIL) method developed in Qian and others (2019). Our algorithm is particularly suitable for large-scale and high-dimensional data that do not fit in the memory. The output of our algorithm is the full Lasso path, the parameter estimates at all predefined regularization parameters, as well as their validation accuracy measured using the concordance index (C-index) or the validation deviance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm, we analyze a large genotype-survival time dataset across 306 disease outcomes from the UK Biobank (Sudlow and others, 2015). We provide a publicly available implementation of the proposed approach for genetics data on top of the PLINK2 package and name it snpnet-Cox., (© The Author 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Clinical laboratory tests are a critical component of the continuum of care. We evaluate the genetic basis of 35 blood and urine laboratory measurements in the UK Biobank (n = 363,228 individuals). We identify 1,857 loci associated with at least one trait, containing 3,374 fine-mapped associations and additional sets of large-effect (>0.1 s.d.) protein-altering, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) and copy number variant (CNV) associations. Through Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, we discover 51 causal relationships, including previously known agonistic effects of urate on gout and cystatin C on stroke. Finally, we develop polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for each biomarker and build 'multi-PRS' models for diseases using 35 PRSs simultaneously, which improved chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, gout and alcoholic cirrhosis genetic risk stratification in an independent dataset (FinnGen; n = 135,500) relative to single-disease PRSs. Together, our results delineate the genetic basis of biomarkers and their causal influences on diseases and improve genetic risk stratification for common diseases.