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Objective: We aimed to determine the predictive capacity and diagnostic yield of a 10-fold increase in serum IgA antitissue transglutaminase (tTG) antibody levels for detecting small intestinal injury diagnostic of coeliac disease (CD) in adult patients., Design: The study comprised three adult cohorts. Cohort 1: 740 patients assessed in the specialist CD clinic at a UK centre; cohort 2: 532 patients with low suspicion for CD referred for upper GI endoscopy at a UK centre; cohort 3: 145 patients with raised tTG titres from multiple international sites. Marsh 3 histology was used as a reference standard against which we determined the performance characteristics of an IgA tTG titre of ≥10×ULN for a diagnosis of CD., Results: Cohort 1: the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for IgA tTG levels of ≥10×ULN at identifying individuals with Marsh 3 lesions were 54.0%, 90.0%, 98.7% and 12.5%, respectively. Cohort 2: the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for IgA tTG levels of ≥10×ULN at identifying individuals with Marsh 3 lesions were 50.0%, 100.0%, 100.0% and 98.3%, respectively. Cohort 3: the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for IgA tTG levels of ≥10×ULN at identifying individuals with Marsh 3 lesions were 30.0%, 83.0%, 95.2% and 9.5%, respectively., Conclusion: Our results show that IgA tTG titres of ≥10×ULN have a strong predictive value at identifying adults with intestinal changes diagnostic of CD. This study supports the use of a no-biopsy approach for the diagnosis of adult CD., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DSS receives an educational grant from Dr Schär (a gluten‐free food manufacturer). PHRG serves on the advisory board of ImmusanT, Cellimmune and ImmunogenX, and is an unpaid member of Nima’s Scientific Advisory Board. The remaining authors disclose no conflicts., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)