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Background: We investigated whether associations between prevalent diabetes and cancer risk are pertinent to older adults and whether associations differ across subgroups of age, body weight status or levels of physical activity.Methods: We harmonised data from seven prospective cohort studies of older individuals in Europe and the United States participating in the CHANCES consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the associations of prevalent diabetes with cancer risk (all cancers combined, and for colorectum, prostate and breast). We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts using pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis.Results: A total of 667,916 individuals were included with an overall median (P25-P75) age at recruitment of 62.3 (57-67) years. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 114,404 total cancer cases were ascertained. Diabetes was not associated with the risk of all cancers combined (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-1.04; I2 = 63.3%). Diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk in men (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26; I2 = 0%) and a similar HR in women (1.13; 95% CI: 0.82-1.56; I2 = 46%), but with a confidence interval including the null. Diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.85; I2 = 0%), but not with postmenopausal breast cancer (HR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.89-1.03; I2 = 0%). In exploratory subgroup analyses, diabetes was inversely associated with prostate cancer risk only in men with overweight or obesity.Conclusions: Prevalent diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer risk and inversely associated with prostate cancer risk in older Europeans and Americans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12-1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly. Objective: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged $60 y. Design: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model. Results: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I2 = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I2 = not applicable). Conclusion: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a public health demand to prevent health conditions which lead to increased morbidity and mortality among the rapidly-increasing elderly population. Data for the incidence of such conditions exist in cohort studies worldwide, which, however, differ in various aspects. The Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES) project aims at harmonizing data from existing major longitudinal studies for the elderly whilst focussing on cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, cancer, fractures and cognitive impairment in order to estimate their prevalence, incidence and cause-specific mortality, and identify lifestyle, socioeconomic, and genetic determinants and biomarkers for the incidence of and mortality from these conditions. A survey instrument assessing ageing-related conditions of the elderly will be also developed. Fourteen cohort studies participate in CHANCES with 683,228 elderly (and 150,210 deaths), from 23 European and three non-European countries. So far, 287 variables on health conditions and a variety of exposures, including biomarkers and genetic data have been harmonized. Different research hypotheses are investigated with meta-analyses. The results which will be produced can help international organizations, governments and policy-makers to better understand the broader implications and consequences of ageing and thus make informed decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single 'baseline' measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25-<30 kg/m) or moderately obese (≥30-<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5-<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58-0.82) and 0.78 (0.63-0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79-0.94) and 0.80 (0.72-0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76-1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62-1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization (WHO) has formulated guidelines for a healthy diet to prevent chronic diseases and postpone death worldwide. Our objective was to investigate the association between the WHO guidelines, measured using the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), and all-cause mortality in elderly men and women from Europe and the United States. We analyzed data from 396,391 participants (42% women) in 11 prospective cohort studies who were 60 years of age or older at enrollment (in 1988–2005). HDI scores were based on 6 nutrients and 1 food group and ranged from 0 (least healthy diet) to 70 (healthiest diet). Adjusted cohort-specific hazard ratios were derived by using Cox proportional hazards regression and subsequently pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. During 4,497,957 person-years of follow-up, 84,978 deaths occurred. Median HDI scores ranged from 40 to 54 points across cohorts. For a 10-point increase in HDI score (representing adherence to an additional WHO guideline), the pooled adjusted hazard ratios were 0.90 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 0.93) for men and women combined, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.92) for men, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.95) for women. These estimates translate to an increased life expectancy of 2 years at the age of 60 years. Greater adherence to the WHO guidelines is associated with greater longevity in elderly men and women in Europe and the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer's perspective. Methods Employees used a 'loyalty card' to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates. Results The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. Conclusions The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer's perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable "business model" which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.Methods: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.Findings: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.Interpretation: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies.Funding: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Financial incentives have been advocated by the UK and U.S. governments to encourage adoption of healthy lifestyles. However, evidence to support the use of incentives for changing physical activity (PA) behavior is sparse. Purpose: To investigate the effectiveness of financial incentives to increase PA in adults in the workplace. Design: Two-arm quasi-experimental design. Setting/participants: Employees (n=406) in a workplace setting in Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK. Intervention: Using a loyalty card to collect points and earn rewards, participants (n=199) in the Incentive Group monitored their PA levels and received financial incentives (retail vouchers) for minutes of PA completed over the course of a 12-week intervention period. Participants (n=207) in the comparison group used their loyalty card to self-monitor their PA levels but were not able to earn points or obtain incentives (No Incentive Group). Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was minutes of PA objectively measured using a novel PA tracking system at baseline (April 2011); Week 6 (June 2011); and Week 12 (July 2011). Other outcomes, including a self-report measure of PA, were collected at baseline, Week 12, and 6 months (October 2011). Data were analyzed in June 2012. Results: No significant differences between groups were found for primary or secondary outcomes at the 12-week and 6-month assessments. Participants in the Incentive Group recorded 17.52 minutes of PA/week (95% CI=12.49, 22.56) compared to 16.63 minutes/week (95% CI=11.76, 21.51) in the No Incentive Group at Week 12 (p=0.59). At 6 months, participants in the Incentive Group recorded 26.18 minutes of PA/week (95% CI=20.06, 32.29) compared to 24.00 minutes/week (95% CI=17.45, 30.54) in the No Incentive Group (p=0.45). Conclusions: Financial incentives did not encourage participants to undertake more PA than self-monitoring PA. This study contributes to the evidence base and has important implications for increasing participation in physical activity and fostering links with the business sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Smoking is known to be a major cause of death among middle-aged adults, but evidence on its impact and the benefits of smoking cessation among older adults has remained limited. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the influence of smoking and smoking cessation on all-cause mortality in people aged ≥60 years.Methods: Relative mortality and mortality rate advancement periods (RAPs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models for the population-based prospective cohort studies from Europe and the U.S. (CHANCES [Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the U.S.]), and subsequently pooled by individual participant meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were performed from June 2013 to March 2014.Results: A total of 489,056 participants aged ≥60 years at baseline from 22 population-based cohort studies were included. Overall, 99,298 deaths were recorded. Current smokers had 2-fold and former smokers had 1.3-fold increased mortality compared with never smokers. These increases in mortality translated to RAPs of 6.4 (95% CI=4.8, 7.9) and 2.4 (95% CI=1.5, 3.4) years, respectively. A clear positive dose-response relationship was observed between number of currently smoked cigarettes and mortality. For former smokers, excess mortality and RAPs decreased with time since cessation, with RAPs of 3.9 (95% CI=3.0, 4.7), 2.7 (95% CI=1.8, 3.6), and 0.7 (95% CI=0.2, 1.1) for those who had quit <10, 10 to 19, and ≥20 years ago, respectively.Conclusions: Smoking remains as a strong risk factor for premature mortality in older individuals and cessation remains beneficial even at advanced ages. Efforts to support smoking abstinence at all ages should be a public health priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Background: CKD as defined by KDIGO/KDOQI has been shown to affect ~ 8.5% of the UK population. The prevalence of CKD in the UK is similar to that in the USA, yet incident dialysis rates are dramatically different. This retrospective cohort study investigates the association between reduced kidney function and mortality in a large UK population., Methods: All serum creatinine results covering Northern Ireland's 1.7 million population were collected between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated for all serum creatinine measurements using four-variable MDRD equation (IDMS aligned). Patients were followed up for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality data until the end of December 2006. Patients on renal replacement therapy were excluded. Subgroup analysis in the 75,345 subjects enrolled within a parallel primary care study permitted additional survival analysis with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors., Results: A total of 1,967,827 serum creatinine results from 533,798 patients were collected. During the period of follow-up, 59,980 deaths occurred. In multivariate survival analysis, using eGFR as a time-varying covariate, a graded association between CKD (defined by eGFR) and all-cause mortality was identified. Compared with participants with an eGFR of > 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the adjusted hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for participants with an eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.02 (0.99-1.04), an eGFR of 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.44 (1.40-1.47), an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 2.12 (2.05-2.20) and an eGFR of < 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 3.46 (3.24-3.70). Significantly, increased all-cause mortality was associated with an eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) following adjustment for age and gender. The association between cardiovascular mortality and reduced renal function continued to be significant for participants with an eGFR of 45-65 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Subgroup analysis in 75,345 individuals with more detailed clinical information available confirmed this association following adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors in addition to age and gender., Conclusions: This study demonstrates a graded association between reduced renal function as represented by eGFR and mortality in a UK population. The all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increases sharply when estimated GFR falls < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The association between an eGFR measured between 45 and 65 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and cardiovascular mortality persists in this cohort and highlights the ongoing uncertainty in accurately categorizing renal dysfunction.