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Nominal yield can be decomposed into real rates, inflation expectations, and inflation risk premia. We estimate an affine term structure model that allows us to decompose nominal bond yields and use the model to study Korea-US exchange rate movements. Our results show that expected inflation and the inflation risk premium have considerable predictive power for Korea-US exchange rates beyond other yield curve factors and macro-variables. In particular, we find that those two nominal factors play a stronger role after 2005. It implies that not only the level of inflation but also inflation uncertainty should be taken into account for predicting Korea-US exchange rates dynamics (JEL classification: E43, F31, G12). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and −2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: −3021 to −1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Subchondral stress fracture of the femoral head is a rare condition that usually occurs as an insufficiency fracture in people with poor bone quality. We evaluated the clinical characteristics of subchondral fatigue fractures of the femoral head that occurred in young, healthy military recruits.Methods: Between January 1998 and November 2001, seven subchondral fatigue fractures of the femoral head were treated in five patients. The characteristics of this condition were ascertained by assessing the clinical course as well as radiographs, bone scintigrams, and magnetic resonance images.Results: All patients were male military recruits in their early twenties in whom pain had developed within five months after recruitment. Definite abnormal findings were observed on the initial radiographs of four hips in three patients, and the femoral head was markedly collapsed in two of these four hips. Bone scintigrams were made of five hips in four patients, and all of them showed increased radionuclide uptake in the femoral head. In all affected hips, magnetic resonance images demonstrated a localized or diffuse bone-marrow-edema pattern in the femoral head and/or neck. A subchondral fracture line (a magnetic resonance crescent sign) was identified in all hips. In the patients who did not have collapse of the femoral head, the pain decreased gradually and disappeared completely within six months, with correspondingly improved findings on sequential magnetic resonance images. The patients with femoral head collapse were treated with total hip arthroplasty or an iliac bone strut graft.Conclusions: When a military recruit or an athlete reports hip pain, a diagnosis of subchondral fatigue fracture of the femoral head should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios., Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty., Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057-2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method., Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200-7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057-2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non-heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions., Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002-2004, with thousands of heat wave-related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.