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Importance: The prevalence of obesity among United States adults has increased from 30.5% in 1999 to 41.9% in 2020. However, despite the recognition of long-term weight gain as an important public health issue, there is a paucity of studies studying the long-term weight gain and building models for long-term projection. Methods: A retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study using the publicly available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2017–2020) was conducted in patients who completed the weight questionnaire and had accurate data for both weight at time of survey and weight ten years ago. Multistate gradient boost modeling classifiers were used to generate covariate dependent transition matrices and Markov chains were utilized for multistate modeling. Results: Of the 6146 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 3024 (49%) of patients were male and 3122 (51%) of patients were female. There were 2252 (37%) White patients, 1257 (20%) Hispanic patients, 1636 (37%) Black patients, and 739 (12%) Asian patients. The average BMI was 30.16 (SD = 7.15), the average weight was 83.67 kilos (SD = 22.04), and the average weight change was a 3.27 kg (SD = 14.97) increase in body weight (Fig. 1). A total of 2411 (39%) patients lost weight, and 3735 (61%) patients gained weight (Table 1). We observed that 87 (1%) of patients were underweight (BMI < 18.5), 2058 (33%) were normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25), 1376 (22%) were overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) and 2625 (43%) were obese (BMI > 30). From analysis of the transitions between normal/underweight, overweight, and obese, we observed that after 10 years, of the patients who were underweight, 65% stayed underweight, 32% became normal weight, 2% became overweight, and 2% became obese. After 10 years, of the patients who were normal weight, 3% became underweight, 78% stayed normal weight, 17% became overweight, and 2% became obese. Of the patients who were overweight, 71% stayed overweight, 0% became underweight, 14% became normal weight, and 15% became obese. Of the patients who were obese, 84% stayed obese, 0% became underweight, 1% became normal weight, and 14% became overweight. Conclusions: United States adults are at risk of transitioning from normal weight to becoming overweight or obese. Covariate dependent Markov chains constructed with gradient boost modeling can effectively generate long-term predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a deep learning-aided deterioration modeling approach for highway bridge components (i.e., decks, superstructures, and substructures). The method trains a set of deep learning models for the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in a Markov chain. The likelihood function is based on observed numbers of transitions between different condition states. The deep learning is leveraged for efficient representation of various factors that influence the deterioration process. Aided by deep learning, the proposed method is suitable for deterioration modeling using large-scale and high-dimensional bridge datasets. The study demonstrates an application of this approach using the historical National Bridge Inventory database from 1993 to 2019. The Convolutional Neural Network is adopted as the deep learning model. The proposed method is validated with ten-fold cross-validation that encompasses a nationwide selection of 88,596, 101,414, and 96,244 bridge decks, superstructures, and substructures, respectively. The validation shows this approach achieved a robust and low prediction error with the maximum mean-squared-error near 0.5 in a 26-years-forecast. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional Artificial Neural Network and four selected Markov-chain based deterioration modeling approaches. The study shows this approach can be a promising data-driven tool for deterioration modeling of highway bridge components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent evidence showing that computer-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is associated with better outcomes compared with conventional TKA for patients with end-stage knee osteoarthritis has not been included in economic evaluations of computer-assisted TKA, which are needed to support coverage decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of computer-assisted TKA from a payer's perspective, incorporating recent evidence., Methods: We compared computer-assisted TKA with conventional TKA with regard to costs (in 2022 U.S. dollars) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using Markov models for elderly patients (≥65 years of age) and patients who were not elderly (55 to 64 years of age). Costs and QALYs were estimated in the lifetime for elderly patients and in the short term for patients who were not elderly, under a bundled payment program and a Fee-for-Service program. Transition probabilities, costs, and QALYs were retrieved from the literature, a national knee arthroplasty registry, and the National Center for Health Statistics. Threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of key estimates used in the base-case analysis. Using projected estimates of TKA utilization, the total cost savings of performing computer-assisted TKA rather than conventional TKA were estimated., Results: Compared with conventional TKA, computer-assisted TKA was associated with higher QALYs and lower costs for both elderly patients and patients who were not elderly, regardless of payment programs, making computer-assisted TKA a favorable treatment option. Widespread adoption of computer-assisted TKA in all U.S. patients would result in an estimated total cost saving of $1 billion for payers., Conclusions: Compared with conventional TKA, computer-assisted TKA reduces costs to payers while providing favorable outcomes. Payers may consider providing additional payment incentives to providers for performing computer-assisted TKA, to achieve outcome improvement and cost control by facilitating widespread adoption of computer-assisted TKA., Level of Evidence: Economic and Decision Analysis Level II . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence., Competing Interests: Disclosure: No external funding was received for this work. The Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest forms are provided with the online version of the article ( http://links.lww.com/JBJS/H975 )., (Copyright © 2024 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.)

Background: Heavily treatment-experienced (HTE) people with HIV (PWH) have limited treatment options owing to multidrug resistance (MDR). Lenacapavir (LEN) is indicated, in combination with other antiretrovirals, for the treatment of adults with MDR HIV-1 experiencing failure of their current antiretroviral regimen because of resistance, intolerance, or safety considerations., Objective: To evaluate the cost-utility of LEN in combination with an optimized background regimen (OBR) vs alternative recently approved treatments for HTE PWH, fostemsavir (FTR)+OBR and ibalizumab (IBA)+OBR, for the treatment of PWH with MDR, from a mixed US health care payer perspective., Methods: A Markov state-transition model with a lifetime time horizon was developed. Transition probabilities between viral load categories were based on individual participant data from the CAPELLA trial for LEN+OBR and on relative efficacy parameters obtained from indirect treatment comparisons for comparators. Health state utilities were sourced from the literature. Costs included drug acquisition costs, drug administration costs, disease management costs, adverse event costs, AIDS-related event costs, and treatment switching costs and were sourced from red book costs, Medicare and Medicaid fees, and the literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. The model was used to estimate total and incremental costs, life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. A deterministic and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, as well as scenario analyses, were performed to address elements of uncertainty in the model and to explore the robustness of the results., Results: Over a lifetime time horizon, LEN+OBR was associated with the highest absolute QALYs (9.41) and the greatest number of LYs (12.09) compared with FTR+OBR (QALYs: 8.75; LYs: 11.26) and IBA+OBR (QALYs: 8.36; LYs: 10.78). LEN+OBR was also associated with the lowest total lifetime costs of the 3 interventions (LEN+OBR: $1,441,122 [US dollars]; FTR+OBR: $1,504,986; IBA+OBR: $1,524,396) and therefore was dominant over both comparators in the base case. LEN+OBR remained dominant vs FTR+OBR and IBA+OBR across the range of scenarios tested and LEN+OBR had a 99% probability of being cost-effective compared with FTR+OBR and IBA+OBR in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY., Conclusions: This economic evaluation demonstrated that LEN+OBR provides meaningful increases in QALYs and LYs, and is dominant over a lifetime time horizon, compared with FTR+OBR and IBA+OBR for the treatment of PWH with MDR in the United States.

Purpose: Endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) is a minimally invasive day procedure that the MERIT randomized controlled trial (RCT) has demonstrated to be an effective and safe method of weight loss versus lifestyle modification alone. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ESG from the perspective of a US commercial payer in a cohort of adults with class II and class I obesity with diabetes based on this RCT., Materials: We used a Markov modelling approach with BMI group health states and an absorbing death state. Baseline characteristics, utilities, BMI group transition probabilities, and adverse events (AEs) were informed by patient-level data from the MERIT RCT. Mortality was estimated by applying BMI-specific hazard ratios to US general population mortality rates. We used BMI-based health state utilities to reflect the impact of obesity comorbidities and applied disutilities due to ESG AEs. Costs included intervention costs, AE costs, and BMI-based annual direct healthcare costs to account for costs associated with obesity comorbidities. A willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was assumed., Results: In our base-case analysis over a 5-year time horizon, ESG was cost-effective versus lifestyle modification alone with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $23,432/QALY. ESG remained cost-effective in all sensitivity analyses we conducted and was dominant in analyses with longer time horizons., Conclusion: ESG is a cost-effective treatment option for people living with obesity and should be considered in commercial health plans as an additional treatment option for clinically eligible patients., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tisotumab vedotin to treat recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer in second- or third-line from the U.S. payer perspective., Methods: A Markov model with three-state was employed to simulate recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer patients who were administered either tisotumab vedotin or investigator's choice of chemotherapy based on the phase III, open-labeled innovaTV 301 randomized clinical trial. The data on cost and health preferences were collected from the literature., Results: Tisotumab vedotin generated an additional 0.25 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared to chemotherapy, but at an additional cost of $206,779. This results in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $839,107.88 per QALY. The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that cost of tisotumab vedotin, utility of progressive disease and progression-free survival had the greatest impacts on the outcomes. Probability sensitivity analysis showed that tisotumab vedotin had a 0% chance of being considered cost-effective., Conclusion: Tisotumab vedotin was unlikely cost-effective compared to chemotherapy for recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer patients at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY from the perspective of a U.S. payer. Lowering the prices of tisotumab vedotin could potentially enhance its cost-effectiveness., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported., (© 2024. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology, and Japan Society of Gynecologic Oncology.)

Background: The efficacy of sotagliflozin in patients with diabetes and recent worsening of heart failure was shown in the SOLOIST-WHF trial. However, the cost-effectiveness of sotagliflozin in these patients has not been previously investigated., Objectives: The authors sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of sotagliflozin in patients with diabetes and recent worsening of heart failure., Methods: Based on SOLOIST-WHF trial data (N = 1,222), the authors constructed a Markov model to estimate the lifetime impact of sotagliflozin from a U.S. health care sector perspective. Cost data were sourced from the National Inpatient Sample. Life expectancy was modeled from census data and modified by the mortality rate in SOLOIST-WHF. Fatal and nonfatal event rates were carried forward from the trial data. Utility was assessed from the published reports., Results: Lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 4.43 and 4.04 in the sotagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively, and lifetime costs were $220,113 and $188,198 in the sotagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively. The point estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $81,823 per QALY gained. The probability of being cost-effective was 3.6%, 67.5%, and 89.4% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000, $100,000, and $150,000, respectively, per QALY gained., Conclusions: In patients with diabetes and recent worsening of heart failure, sotagliflozin is cost-effective in the U.S. using commonly accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. (Effect of Sotagliflozin on Cardiovascular Events in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Post Worsening Heart Failure [SOLOIST-WHF]; NCT03521934)., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures This work is supported by an unrestricted grant from Lexicon Pharmaceuticals. Dr Bhatt is the chair and PI of SOLOIST-WHF; has served on advisory boards for AngioWave, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardax, CellProthera, Cereno Scientific, Elsevier Practice Update Cardiology, High Enroll, Janssen, Level Ex, McKinsey, Medscape Cardiology, Merck, MyoKardia, NirvaMed, Novo Nordisk, PhaseBio, PLx Pharma, Regado Biosciences, and Stasys; has served on boards of directors for AngioWave, Boston VA Research Institute, Bristol Myers Squibb, High Enroll, Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care, and TobeSoft; Chair: has served as inaugural chair of the American Heart Association Quality Oversight Committee; has been a consultant for Broadview Ventures and Hims; has served on data monitoring committees for Acesion Pharma, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, the Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute, for the PORTICO trial, funded by St. Jude Medical, now Abbott), Boston Scientific (chair, PEITHO trial), Cleveland Clinic (including for the ExCEED trial, funded by Edwards Lifesciences), Contego Medical (chair, PERFORMANCE 2 trial), Duke Clinical Research Institute, Mayo Clinic, Mount Sinai School of Medicine (for the ENVISAGE trial, funded by Daiichi Sankyo; and for the ABILITY-DM trial, funded by Concept Medical), Novartis, Population Health Research Institute; and Rutgers University (for the National Institutes of Health–funded MINT Trial); has received honoraria from the American College of Cardiology (senior associate editor, Clinical Trials and News, ACC.org, and chair of the ACC Accreditation Oversight Committee), Arnold and Porter law firm (work related to Sanofi/Bristol Myers Squibb clopidogrel litigation), Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute; RE-DUAL PCI clinical trial steering committee funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; AEGIS-II executive committee funded by CSL Behring), Belvoir Publications (Editor-in-Chief, Harvard Heart Letter), Canadian Medical and Surgical Knowledge Translation Research Group (clinical trial steering committees), Cowen and Company, Duke Clinical Research Institute (clinical trial steering committees, including for the PRONOUNCE trial, funded by Ferring Pharmaceuticals), HMP Global (editor in chief, Journal of Invasive Cardiology), Journal of the American College of Cardiology (guest editor; associate editor), K2P (cochair, interdisciplinary curriculum), Level Ex, Medtelligence/ReachMD (CME steering committees), MJH Life Sciences, Oakstone CME (course director, Comprehensive Review of Interventional Cardiology), Piper Sandler, Population Health Research Institute (for the COMPASS operations committee, publications committee, steering committee, and USA national coleader, funded by Bayer), Slack Publications (chief medical editor, Cardiology Today’s Intervention), Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care (secretary/treasurer), WebMD (CME steering committees), and Wiley (steering committee); has other relationships with Clinical Cardiology (deputy editor), NCDR-ACTION Registry Steering Committee (chair), VA CART Research and Publications Committee (chair); has been named on a patent for sotagliflozin assigned to Brigham and Women's Hospital who assigned to Lexicon; neither Dr Bhatt nor Brigham and Women's Hospital receive any income from this patent); has received research funding from Abbott, Acesion Pharma, Afimmune, Aker Biomarine, Amarin, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Beren, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardax, CellProthera, Cereno Scientific, Chiesi, CinCor, Cleerly, CSL Behring, Eisai, Ethicon, Faraday Pharmaceuticals, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Forest Laboratories, Fractyl, Garmin, HLS Therapeutics, Idorsia, Ironwood, Ischemix, Janssen, Javelin, Lexicon, Lilly, Medtronic, Merck, Moderna, MyoKardia, NirvaMed, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Owkin, Pfizer, PhaseBio, PLx Pharma, Recardio, Regeneron, Reid Hoffman Foundation, Roche, Sanofi, Stasys, Synaptic, The Medicines Company, Youngene, and 89Bio; has received royalties from Elsevier (editor, Braunwald’s Heart Disease); has been a site coinvestigator for Abbott, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, CSI, Endotronix, St. Jude Medical (now Abbott), Philips, SpectraWAVE, Svelte, and Vascular Solutions; has been a trustee for the American College of Cardiology; and has performed unfunded research for FlowCo and Takeda. Dr Weintraub has received research support from Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Amarin Corporation, and from the National Institutes of Health; has been a consultant to Amarin Corporation, AstraZeneca, Janssen, SC Pharma, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, and The Medicines Company. Dr Zhang has been a consultant to Amarin via MedStar Health Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Purpose: To simulate patient-level costs, analyze the economic potential of telemedicine-based mobile stroke units for acute prehospital stroke care, and identify major determinants of cost-effectiveness, based on two recent prospective trials from the United States and Germany., Methods: A Markov decision model was developed to simulate lifetime costs and outcomes of mobile stroke unit. The model compares diagnostic and therapeutic pathways of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and stroke mimic patients by conventional care or by mobile stroke units. The treatment outcomes were derived from the B&#95;PROUD and the BEST-mobile stroke unit trials and further input parameters were derived from recent literature. Uncertainty was addressed by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A lifetime horizon based on the US healthcare system was adopted to evaluate different cost thresholds for mobile stroke unit and the resulting cost-effectiveness. Willingness-to-pay thresholds were set at 1x and 3x gross domestic product per capita, as recommended by the World Health Organization., Results: In the base case scenario, mobile stroke unit care yielded an incremental gain of 0.591 quality-adjusted life years per dispatch. Mobile stroke unit was highly cost-effective up to a maximum average cost of 43,067 US dollars per patient. Sensitivity analyses revealed that MSU cost-effectiveness is mainly affected by reduction of long-term disability costs. Also, among other parameters, the rate of stroke mimics patients diagnosed by MSU plays an important role., Conclusion: This study demonstrated that mobile stroke unit can possibly be operated on an excellent level of cost-effectiveness in urban areas in North America with number of stroke mimic patients and long-term stroke survivor costs as major determinants of lifetime cost-effectiveness., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe authors declared the following potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: JSR, MFF, SOS, and FT: The Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine has research agreements with Siemens Healthineers. KS, CH, MN, and KCF: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.JLS: Contracted hourly payments from Medtronic, Cerenovus, Phillips, Neurovasc, Boehringer Ingelheim (prevention only), and Rapid Medical for service on Trial Steering Committee/DSMBs advising on rigorous study design and conduct.

Background: Tamoxifen (TAM) is recommended as the first-line strategy for men with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer who are candidates for adjuvant endocrine therapy in ASCO guideline. Our study aims to analyze the cost-effectiveness of receiving adjuvant endocrine therapy with TAM compared to no TAM, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of using TAM with high adherence over low adherence for ER-positive early male breast cancer in the USA., Methods: Two Markov models comprising three mutually exclusive health states were constructed: (1) the first Markov model compared the cost-effectiveness of adding TAM with not using TAM (TAM versus Not-TAM); (2) the second model compared the cost-effectiveness of receiving TAM with high adherence and low adherence (High-adherence-TAM versus Low-adherence-TAM). The simulation time horizon for both models was the lifetime of patients. The efficacy and safety data of two models were elicited from the real-world studies. Model inputs were derived from the US website and published literature. The main outcomes of two models both included the total cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs)., Results: In the first model, TAM yielded an ICER of $5707.29 per QALY compared to Not-TAM, which was substantially below the WTP threshold of $50,000.00 per QALY in the USA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results demonstrated a 100.00% probability of cost-effectiveness for this strategy. In the second model, High-adherence-TAM was dominated absolutely compared to Low-adherence-TAM. The High-adherence-TAM was cost-effective with a 99.70% probability over Low-adherence-TAM when WTP was set as $50,000.00/QALY. All of these parameters within their plausible ranges did not reversely change the results of our models., Conclusions: Our study will offer valuable guidance for physicians or patients when making treatment decisions and provide an effective reference for decision-making to consider the appropriate allocation of funds to this special group., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to The Japanese Breast Cancer Society.)

Background: With coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward., Methods: We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine., Results: For an 18-49 year old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64 year old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1278 and $119-$1706 for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% preexisting protection against infection (eg, vaccinated 9 months earlier)., Conclusions: There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest . P. J. H., M. E. B., and U. S. are coinventors of a COVID-19 recombinant protein vaccine technology owned by Baylor College of Medicine (BCM) that was recently licensed by BCM nonexclusively and with no patent restrictions to several companies committed to advance vaccines for low- and middle-income countries. The coinventors have no involvement in license negotiations conducted by BCM. Similar to other research universities, a long-standing BCM policy provides its faculty and staff, who make discoveries that result in a commercial license, a share of any royalty income, according to BCM policy. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Multiple factors, such as less complex U.S. adult pneumococcal recommendations that could increase vaccination rates, childhood pneumococcal vaccination indirect effects that decrease adult vaccination impact, and increased vaccine hesitancy (particularly in underserved minorities), could diminish the cost-effectiveness of programs to increase pneumococcal vaccination in older adults. Prior analyses supported the economic favorability of these programs., Methods: A Markov model compared no vaccination and current recommendations (either 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV20] alone or 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine plus the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine [PCV15/PPSV23]) without or with programs to increase vaccine uptake in Black and non-Black 65-year-old cohorts. Pre-pandemic population- and serotype-specific pneumococcal disease risk and illness/vaccine costs came from U.S., Databases: Program costs were $2.19 per vaccine-eligible person and increased absolute vaccination likelihood by 7.5%. Delphi panel estimates and trial data informed vaccine effectiveness values. Analyses took a healthcare perspective, discounting at 3%/year over a lifetime time horizon., Results: Uptake programs decreased pneumococcal disease overall. In Black cohorts, PCV20 without program cost $216,805 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained compared with no vaccination; incremental cost-effectiveness was $245,546/QALY for PCV20 with program and $425,264/QALY for PCV15/PPSV23 with program. In non-Black cohorts, all strategies cost >$200,000/QALY gained. When considering the potential indirect effects from childhood vaccination, all strategies became less economically attractive. Increased vaccination with less complex strategies had negligible effects. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, current recommendations with or without programs were unlikely to be favored at thresholds <$200,000/QALY gained., Conclusion: Current U.S. pneumococcal vaccination recommendations for older adults were unlikely to be economically reasonable with or without programs to increase vaccine uptake. Alternatives to current pneumococcal vaccines that include pneumococcal serotypes associated with adult disease should be considered., (© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Three medications are now guideline-recommended treatments for heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFmrEF/HFpEF), however, the cost-effectiveness of these agents in combination has yet to be established., Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA), angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNIs), and sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) in individuals with HFmrEF/HFpEF., Methods: Using a 3-state Markov model, we performed a cost-effectiveness study using simulated cohorts of 1,000 patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF. Treatment with 1-, 2-, and 3-drug combinations was modeled. Based on a United States health care sector perspective, outcome data was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2023 United States dollars based on a 30-year time horizon., Results: Treatment with MRA, MRA+SGLT2i, and MRA+SGLT2i+ARNI therapy resulted in an increase in life years of 1.04, 1.58, and 1.80 in the HFmrEF subgroup, respectively, and 0.99, 1.54, and 1.77 in the HFpEF subgroup, respectively, compared with placebo. At a yearly cost of $18, MRA therapy resulted in ICERs of $10,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in both subgroups. The ICER for the addition of SGLT2i therapy ($4,962 per year) was $113,000 per QALY in the HFmrEF subgroup and $141,000 in the HFpEF subgroup. The addition of ARNI therapy ($5,504 per year) resulted in ICERs >$250,000 per QALY in both subgroups. If SGLT2i and ARNI were available at generic pricing the ICERs become <$10,000 per QALY in both EF subgroups. Outcomes were highly sensitive to assumed benefit in cardiovascular death., Conclusions: For patients with heart failure, MRA was of high value, SGLT2i was of intermediate value, and ARNI was of low value in both HFmrEF and HFpEF subgroups. For patients with HFmrEF/HFpEF increased use of MRA and SGLT2i therapies should be encouraged and be accompanied with efforts to lower the cost of SGLT2i and ARNI therapies., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures Dr Fonarow has consulted for Abbott, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Cytokinetics, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Medtronic, Merck, Novartis, and Pfizer. Dr Vaduganathan has received research grant support, served on advisory boards, or has had speaker engagements with American Regent, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Baxter Healthcare, Boehringer Ingelheim, Chiesi, Cytokinetics, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pharmacosmos, Relypsa, Roche Diagnostics, Sanofi, and Tricog Health; and participates on clinical trial committees for studies sponsored by AstraZeneca, Galmed, Novartis, Bayer AG, Occlutech, and Impulse Dynamics. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Ultrasound (US) is associated with severe visualization limitations (US Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System visualization score C) in one-third of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cirrhosis undergoing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening. Data suggest abbreviated MRI (aMRI) may improve HCC screening efficacy. This study analyzed the cost-effectiveness of HCC screening strategies, including an US visualization score-based approach with aMRI, in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis., Methods: We constructed a Markov model simulating adults with compensated NAFLD cirrhosis in the United States undergoing HCC screening, comparing strategies of US plus visualization score, US alone, or no surveillance. We modeled aMRI in patients with visualization score C and negative US, while patients with scores A/B did US alone. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing US plus visualization score with US plus alpha fetoprotein or no surveillance. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Sensitivity analyses were performed for all variables., Results: US plus visualization score was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of $59,005 relative to no surveillance. The ICER for US alone to US plus visualization score was $822,500. On sensitivity analysis, screening using US plus visualization score remained preferred across several parameters. Even with alpha fetoprotein added to US, the US plus visualization score strategy remained cost-effective, with an ICER of $62,799 compared with no surveillance., Discussion: HCC surveillance using US visualization score-based approach, using aMRI for visualization score C, seems to be the most cost-effective strategy in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis., (Copyright © 2024 by The American College of Gastroenterology.)

Background & Aims: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation., Methods: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMS min ) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses., Results: CMS min reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMS min cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMS min would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation., Conclusions: CMS min could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only., (Copyright © 2024 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a digital diabetes prevention programme (d-DPP) compared with a diabetes prevention programme (DPP) for preventing type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals with prediabetes in the United States., Methods: A Markov cohort model was constructed, simulating a 10-year period starting at the age of 45 years, with a societal and healthcare sector perspective. The effectiveness of the d-DPP intervention was evaluated using a meta-analysis, with that of the DPP as the comparator. The initial cycle represented the treatment period, and transition probabilities for the post-treatment period were derived from a long-term lifestyle intervention meta-analysis. The onset of T2D complications was estimated using microsimulation. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated based on health utility measured by short form (SF)-12 scores, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained was applied., Results: The d-DPP intervention resulted in cost savings of $3,672 from a societal perspective and $2,990 from a healthcare sector perspective and a gain of 0.08 QALYs compared with the DPP. The dropout rate was identified as a significant factor influencing the results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the d-DPP intervention was preferred in 85.8% in the societal perspective and 85.2% in the healthcare sector perspective., Conclusions: The d-DPP is a cost-effective alternative to in-person lifestyle interventions for preventing the development of T2D among individuals with prediabetes in the United States., (© 2024 The Author(s). Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Breast cancer is one of the tumors with the highest prevalence rate among women in the world, and its BRCA1/2 gene is a common mutation site. Talazoparib, as a targeted PARP inhibitor, can effectively control the occurrence and development of breast cancer with BRCA1/2 gene mutation, and play a therapeutic role. Based on the findings from the Phase III EMBRACE trial (NCT01945775 clinical trial), our analysis reveals that the talazoparib group demonstrated a significant extension in progression-free survival, along with improved response markers and patient-reported outcomes when compared to conventional therapies. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of talazoparib for treating advanced breast cancer with germline BRCA1/2 mutations and HER2 negativity, considering the perspectives of health services in China and the United States. The results obtained will serve as a valuable reference for promoting rational drug utilization and enhancing medical resource efficiency. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Talazoparib more scientifically and provide clinicians with chemotherapy options, this paper developed a Markov model based on the EMBRACA clinical trial (clinical Trails.gov No., NCT01945775) to simulate the survival events of breast cancer patients in the Talazoparib group and the standard treatment group. The state transition probability and clinical data of breast cancer patients during treatment were extracted from the phase III EMBRACA clinical trial. The cost data generated during the treatment process comes from local hospital pricing, other references, and expert consultation. This article uses US dollars to calculate the treatment cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Health outcomes are expressed in Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). In addition, Outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which robustness was evaluated by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. This article establishes a Markov model for single-item sensitivity analysis. The results show that the economic benefits of using Talazoparib as a new treatment strategy in both China and the United States are higher than other drugs, and it is cost-effective. Compared to the control group, the incremental cost incurred by the Talazoparib treatment group in China was $2484.48/QALY, with an incremental QALY of 1.5. However, Talazoparib in the United States holds a dominant position, saving costs of $10,223.43 and increasing QALYs by 1.5. The clinical treatment effect of Talazoparib group in BRCA1/2 mutant advanced breast cancer patients is better than that of the standard treatment group, and the progression free survival period is significantly prolonged. From the perspective of medical and health services in China and the United States, the Talazoparib group is more economical than the standard treatment group in treating patients with BRCA1/2 mutant advanced breast cancer., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background and Aims: Familial hypercholesterolemia is an underdiagnosed genetic metabolic condition limiting the clearance of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and increasing lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. Population genetic screening in unselected individuals could quickly identify cases of familial hypercholesterolemia and enable early prevention, but the economic impact of widespread screening on patients has not been studied., Methods: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening for familial hypercholesterolemia in 20 and 35-year-old adults in the United States from the perspective of patients. We developed a decision tree Markov hybrid model to examine diagnoses, cardiovascular disease, cardiac events, quality of life, and costs under population genetic screening compared to family-based cascade testing., Results: While population genetic screening increased diagnoses and reduced incidence of cardiovascular disease, population genetic screening was not cost-effective compared to cascade testing at current levels of willingness to pay. Lower genetic testing costs, combined screening with other genetic conditions, and support to maintain lipid-lowering therapy use over time could improve the cost-effectiveness of population genetic screening., Conclusions: Future research is needed to examine how cost-sharing strategies may affect the cost-effectiveness of screening to patients and how families and providers experience the clinical and economic outcomes of population screening., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest LEH received predoctoral fellowship funding from Bristol Myers Squibb. MCR's spouse holds stock in Merck and Thermo Fisher Scientific. LPS has received salary support paid to her institution for an unrelated study from AstraZeneca. CT, DMC, and KCT have no conflicts of interest to report., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: This study assesses the impact of expanding pneumococcal vaccination to all 50-year-olds to decrease racial disparities by estimating from the societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) and 15-valent conjugate vaccine followed by 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PCV15/PPSV23) for 50-year-olds., Methods: A Markov model compared the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 or PCV15/PPSV23 in all general population 50- and 65-years-olds compared with current US recommendations and with no vaccination in US Black and non-Black cohorts. US data informed model parameters. Pneumococcal disease societal costs were estimated using direct and indirect costs of acute illness and of pneumococcal-related long-term disability and mortality. Hypothetical 50-year-old cohorts were followed over their lifetimes with costs and effectiveness discounted 3% per year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed model uncertainty., Results: In Black cohorts, PCV20 for all at ages 50 and 65 was the least costly strategy and had greater effectiveness than no vaccination and current recommendation strategies, whereas PCV15/PPSV23 at 50 and 65 cost more than $1 million per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained compared with PCV20 at 50 and 65. In non-Black cohorts, PCV20 at 50 and 65 cost $62 083/QALY and PCV15/PPSV23 at 50 and 65 cost more than $1 million/QALY with current recommendations, again being more costly and less effective. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, PCV20 at 50 and 65 was favored in 85.7% (Black) and 61.8% (non-Black) of model iterations at a $100 000/QALY gained willingness-to-pay threshold., Conclusions: When considering the societal costs of pneumococcal disease, PCV20 at ages 50 and 65 years in the general US population is a potentially economically viable strategy, particularly in Black cohorts., Competing Interests: Author Disclosures Author disclosure forms can be accessed below in the Supplemental Material section., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objective: To compare the cost-utility of initial management of high-grade T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HGT1 NMIBC) with intravesical BCG vs immediate radical cystectomy. High-risk NMIBC patients may climb a costly ladder of treatments, culminating in radical cystectomy for oncologic or symptomatic benefit in up to one-third. This high healthcare resource utilization presents a challenging dilemma in balancing sufficiently aggressive management with cost, toxicity, and quality-of-life., Methods: Cost-utility of initially managing HGT1 with intravesical BCG and early radical cystectomy with ileal conduit urinary diversion was compared using decision-analytic Markov models. Five-year oncologic outcomes, adverse event rates, and published utility values were extracted from literature. Costs were calculated from a US Medicare perspective in 2021 US dollars. Sensitivity analysis identified drivers of cost and break-even points for recurrence and progression., Results: Mean costs were $26,093 for intravesical BCG and $39,720 for immediate radical cystectomy, though cystectomy generated a gain of 2.2 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to intravesical BCG. Immediate cystectomy was a more cost-effective management strategy for HGT1 NMIBC with an incremental CE ratios (ICER) of $7120/QALY. The costs associated with cystectomy, TURBT, and BCG toxicity had the greatest impact on ICER. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that intravesical BCG became a cost-effective management strategy if the 5-year recurrence rate of HG T1 was less than 56% or the 5-year progression rate to MIBC was less than 4%., Conclusion: At current prices, treatment of high-grade T1 NMIBC with early radical cystectomy is more cost-effective management strategy than initial treatment with intravesical BCG., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The cement industry is among the top three polluters among all industries and the examination of the nonlinear and cointegration dynamics between cement production and CO 2 emissions has not been explored. Focusing on this research gap, the study employs a novel Markov-switching autoregressive distributed lag (MS-ARDL) model and its generalization to vector error correction, the MS-VARDL model, for regime-dependent causality testing. The new method allows the determination of nonlinear long-run and short-run relations, regime duration, and cement-induced-CO 2 emission cycles in the USA for a historically long dataset covering 1900-2021. Empirical findings point to nonlinearity in all series and nonlinear cointegration between cement production and cement-induced CO 2 emissions. The phases of regimes coincide closely with NBER's official economic cycles for the USA. The second regime, characterized by expansions, lasts twice as long relative to the first, the contractionary regime, which contains severe economic recessions, as well as economic crises, the 1929 Great Depression, the 1973 Oil Crisis, the 2009 Great Recession, and the COVID-19 Shutdown and Wars, including WWI and II. In both regimes, the adverse effects of cement production on CO 2 emissions cannot be rejected with varying degrees both in the long and the short run. Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive distributed lag (MS-VARDL) causality tests confirm unidirectional causality from cement production to CO 2 emissions in both regimes. The traditional Granger causality test produces an over-acceptance of causality in a discussed set of cases. Industry-level policy recommendations include investments to help with the shift to green kiln technologies and energy efficiency. National-level policies on renewable energy and carbon capture are also vital considering the energy consumption of cement production., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Studies show that medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) reduce illicit opioid use, emergency healthcare services, opioid-related overdose, and death. However, few studies have investigated the long-term cost-effectiveness of MOUD in office-based opioid treatment (OBOT) and opioid treatment program (OTP) settings. We aimed to estimate the cost, utility, quality-adjusted life years gained (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of three MOUD compared to each other and counseling without medication from a US healthcare sector perspective., Methods: Our study developed a Markov model to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of counseling and three MOUD in the OBOT and OTP settings: sublingual buprenorphine/naloxone (BUPNX), buprenorphine extended-release (XR-BUP) injection, and oral methadone. The model included five health states representing combinations of receiving or off treatment while either using or not actively using illicit opioids, and death. The cycle length was one month; the time-horizon was ten years. The study obtained model inputs from systematic reviews of published literature and public data. A 3 % annual discount rate was applied to cost and utility calculation. The primary outcomes included total costs, life-years (LYs), QALYs, and ICERs. We also conducted a scenario analysis using a hypothetical OBOT outpatient setting with methadone., Results: In the base-case OBOT setting, the total costs and QALYs, respectively, were counseling $22,848, 5.60; BUPNX $29,875, 5.82; and XR-BUP $63,936, 5.87. ICERs were $32,345/QALY (BUPNX vs. counseling) and $625,858/QALY (XR-BUP vs BUPNX). In the OTP setting, the total costs of counseling, methadone, BUPNX, and XR-BUP were $20,124, $27,000, $33,500, and $75,272, respectively. QALYs of methadone were 5.86. QALYs of counseling, BUPNX, and XR-BUP remained the same as in the OBOT setting. Incremental ICERs were $26,714/QALY (methadone vs counseling) and $3,337,623/QALY (XR-BUP vs methadone). BUPNX was dominated by methadone. In the scenario analysis, BUPNX was also dominated by methadone., Conclusions: Outpatient MOUD resulted in important gains in quality of life and life expectancy. In both OBOT and OTP settings, XR-BUP was not cost-effective. BUPNX was cost-effective in the OBOT setting, while it was dominated by methadone in the OTP setting. The cost-effectiveness of BUPNX and XR-BUP could be enhanced if the costs of these medications were reduced., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest DRT is the Senior Scientific Advisor for Monument Analytics, a consultant for Astra Zeneca, and has received research funding from AbbVie, Inc. and Takeda awarded to the University of Illinois at Chicago for work unrelated to this study. SAC is a post-doctoral fellow at Takeda and the University of Illinois at Chicago. CHY is an employee of AbbVie, Inc. and may own stocks/shares of the company. All other authors have no conflict of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Emergency Medicaid is a restricted benefits program for individuals who have low-income status and who are immigrants., Objective: This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 2 strategies of pregnancy coverage for Emergency Medicaid recipients: the federal minimum of covering the delivery only vs extended coverage to 60 days after delivery., Study Design: A decision analytical Markov model was developed to evaluate the outcomes and costs of these policies, and the results in a theoretical cohort of 100,000 postpartum Emergency Medicaid recipients were considered. The payor perspective was adopted. Health outcomes and cost-effectiveness over a 1- and 3-year time horizon were investigated. All probabilities, utilities, and costs were obtained from the literature. Our primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the competing strategies., Results: Extending Emergency Medicaid to 60 days after delivery was determined to be a cost-saving strategy. Providing postpartum and contraceptive care resulted in 33,900 additional people receiving effective contraception in the first year and prevented 7290 additional unintended pregnancies. Over 1 year, it resulted in a gain of 1566 quality-adjusted life year at a cost of $10,903 per quality-adjusted life year. By 3 years of policy change, greater improvements were observed in all outcomes, and the expansion of Emergency Medicaid became cost saving and the dominant strategy., Conclusion: The inclusion of postpartum care and contraception for immigrant women who have low-income status resulted in lower costs and improved health outcomes., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Standard of care for unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) involves definitive chemoradiotherapy followed by maintenance therapy with durvalumab. However, the cost of durvalumab has been cited as a barrier to its use in various health systems., Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of durvalumab vs placebo as maintenance therapy in patients with unresectable stage III NSCLC from 4 international payer perspectives (US, Brazil, Singapore, and Spain)., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, a Markov model was designed to compare the lifetime cost-effectiveness of maintenance durvalumab for unresectable stage III NSCLC with that of placebo, using 5-year outcomes data from the PACIFIC randomized placebo-controlled trial. Individual patient data were extracted from the PACIFIC, KEYNOTE-189, ADAURA, ALEX, and REVEL randomized clinical trials to develop a decision-analytic model to determine the cost-effectiveness of durvalumab compared with placebo maintenance therapy over a 10-year time horizon. Direct costs, adverse events, and patient characteristics were based on country-specific payer perspectives and demographic characteristics. The study was conducted from June 1, 2022, through December 27, 2023., Main Outcomes and Measures: Life-years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated at country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds ([data reported in US$] US: $150 000 per QALY; Brazil: $22 251 per QALY; Singapore: $55 288 per QALY, and Spain: $107 069 per QALY). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for parameters of uncertainty. A cost-threshold analysis was also performed., Results: The US base-case model found that treatment with durvalumab was associated with an increased cost of $114 394 and improved effectiveness of 0.50 QALYs compared with placebo, leading to an ICER of $228 788 per QALY. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, according to base-case models, were $141 146 for Brazil, $153 461 for Singapore, and $125 193 for Spain. Durvalumab price adjustments to the PACIFIC data improved cost-effectiveness in Singapore, with an ICER of $45 164. The model was most sensitive to the utility of durvalumab., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cost-effectiveness analysis of durvalumab as maintenance therapy for unresectable stage III NSCLC, the therapy was found to be cost-prohibitive from the perspective of various international payers according to country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds per QALY. The findings of the study suggest that discounted durvalumab acquisition costs, as possible in Singapore, might improve cost-effectiveness globally.

Background: The historical size threshold for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is widely accepted to be 5.5 cm for men and 5.0 cm for women. However, contemporary AAA rupture risks may be lower than historical benchmarks, which has implications for when AAAs should be repaired. Our objective was to use contemporary AAA rupture rates to inform optimal size thresholds for AAA repair., Methods: We used a Markov chain analysis to estimate life expectancy for patients with AAA. The primary outcome was AAA-related mortality. We estimated survival using Social Security Administration life tables and published contemporary AAA rupture estimates. For those undergoing repair, we modified survival estimates using data from the Vascular Quality Initiative and Medicare on complications, late rupture, and open conversion. We used this model to estimate the AAA repair size threshold that minimizes AAA-related mortality for 60-year-old average-health men and women. We performed a sensitivity analysis of poor-health patients and 70- and 80-year-old base cases., Results: The annual risk of all-cause mortality under surveillance for a 60-year-old woman presenting with a 5.0 cm AAA using repair thresholds of 5.5 cm, 6.0 cm, 6.5 cm, and 7.0 cm was 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.7%, and 2.8%, respectively. The corresponding risk for a man was 2.3%, 2.9%, 3.3%, and 3.4% for the same repair thresholds, respectively. For a 60-year-old average-health woman, an AAA repair size of 6.1 cm was the optimal threshold to minimize AAA-related mortality. Life expectancy varied by <2 months for repair at sizes from 5.7 cm to 7.1 cm. For a 60-year-old average-health man, an AAA repair size of 6.9 cm was the optimal threshold to minimize AAA-related mortality. Life expectancy varied by <2 months for repair at sizes from 6.0 cm to 7.4 cm. Women in poor health, at various age strata, had optimal AAA repair size thresholds that were >6.5 cm, whereas men in poor health, at all ages, had optimal repair size thresholds that were >8.0 cm., Conclusions: The optimal threshold for AAA repair is more nuanced than a discrete size. Specifically, there appears to be a range of AAA sizes for which repair is reasonable to minmized AAA-related mortality. Notably, they all are greater than current guideline recommendations. These findings would suggest that contemporary AAA size thresholds for repair should be reconsidered., (Copyright © 2024 Society for Vascular Surgery. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To introduce 2 R-packages that facilitate conducting health economics research on OMOP-based data networks, aiming to standardize and improve the reproducibility, transparency, and transferability of health economic models., Materials and Methods: We developed the software tools and demonstrated their utility by replicating a UK-based heart failure data analysis across 5 different international databases from Estonia, Spain, Serbia, and the United States., Results: We examined treatment trajectories of 47 163 patients. The overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for telemonitoring relative to standard of care was 57 472 €/QALY. Country-specific ICERs were 60 312 €/QALY in Estonia, 58 096 €/QALY in Spain, 40 372 €/QALY in Serbia, and 90 893 €/QALY in the US, which surpassed the established willingness-to-pay thresholds., Discussion: Currently, the cost-effectiveness analysis lacks standard tools, is performed in ad-hoc manner, and relies heavily on published information that might not be specific for local circumstances. Published results often exhibit a narrow focus, central to a single site, and provide only partial decision criteria, limiting their generalizability and comprehensive utility., Conclusion: We created 2 R-packages to pioneer cost-effectiveness analysis in OMOP CDM data networks. The first manages state definitions and database interaction, while the second focuses on Markov model learning and profile synthesis. We demonstrated their utility in a multisite heart failure study, comparing telemonitoring and standard care, finding telemonitoring not cost-effective., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Aims: Use of gene expression signatures to predict adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in women with early-stage breast cancer is increasing. However, high cost, limited access, and eligibility for these tests results in the adoption of less precise assessment approaches. This study evaluates the cost impact of PreciseDx Breast (PDxBr), an AI-augmented histopathology platform that assesses the 6-year risk of recurrence in early-stage invasive breast cancer patients to help improve informed use of adjuvant chemotherapy., Materials and Methods: A decision-tree Markov model was developed to compare the costs of treatment guided by standard of care (SOC) risk assessment (i.e. clinical diagnostic workup with or without Oncotype DX) versus PDxBr with SOC in a hypothetical cohort of U.S. women with early-stage invasive breast cancer. A commercial payer perspective compares costs of testing, adjuvant therapy, recurrence, adverse events, surveillance, and end-of-life care., Results: PDxBr use in prognostic evaluation resulted in savings of $4 million (M) in year one compared to current SOC in 1 M females members. Over 6-years, savings increased to $12.5 M. The per-treated patient costs in year one amounted to $19.5 thousand (K) for SOC and $16.9K for PDxBr., Limitations: For simplicity, recurrence was not specified. We performed scenario analyses to account for variations in rates for local, regional, and distant recurrence. Second, a recurrent patient incurs the total cost of treated recurrence in the first year and goes back to remission or death. Third, CDK4/6i treatment is only incorporated in the recurrence costs but not in the first line of treatment for early-stage breast cancer due to limited data., Conclusions: Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robust overall savings to changes in all variables in the model. The use of PDxBr to assess breast cancer recurrence risk has the potential to fill gaps in care and reduce costs when gene expression signatures are not available.

Background: The post-acute patient standardized functional items (Section GG) include non-response options such as refuse, not attempt and not applicable. We examined non-response patterns and compared four methods to address non-response functional data in Section GG at nation-wide inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRF)., Methods: We characterized non-response patterns using 100% Medicare 2018 data. We applied four methods to generate imputed values for each non-response functional item of each patient: Monte Carlo Markov Chains multiple imputations (MCMC), Fully Conditional Specification multiple imputations (FCS), Pattern-mixture model (PMM) multiple imputations and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) approach. We compared changes of Spearman correlations and weighted kappa between Section GG and the site-specific functional items across impairments before and after applying four methods., Results: One hundred fifty-nine thousand six hundred ninety-one Medicare fee-for-services beneficiaries admitted to IRFs with stroke, brain dysfunction, neurologic condition, orthopedic disorders, and debility. At discharge, 3.9% (self-care) and 61.6% (mobility) of IRF patients had at least one non-response answer in Section GG. Patients tended to have non-response data due to refused at discharge than at admission. Patients with non-response data tended to have worse function, especially in mobility; also improved less functionally compared to patients without non-response data. Overall, patients coded as 'refused' were more functionally independent in self-care and patients coded as 'not applicable' were more functionally independent in transfer and mobility, compared to other non-response answers. Four methods showed similar changes in correlations and agreements between Section GG and the site-specific functional items, but variations exist across impairments between multiple imputations and the CMS approach., Conclusions: The different reasons for non-response answers are correlated with varied functional status. The high proportion of patients with non-response data for mobility items raised a concern of biased IRF quality reporting. Our findings have potential implications for improving patient care, outcomes, quality reporting, and payment across post-acute settings., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Creating local population health measures from administrative data would be useful for health policy and public health monitoring purposes. While a wide range of options--from simple spatial smoothers to model-based methods--for estimating such rates exists, there are relatively few side-by-side comparisons, especially not with real-world data. In this paper, we compare methods for creating local estimates of acute myocardial infarction rates from Medicare claims data. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain estimator that incorporated spatial and local random effects performed best, followed by a method-of-moments spatial Empirical Bayes estimator. As the former is more complicated and time-consuming, spatial linear Empirical Bayes methods may represent a good alternative for non-specialist investigators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the economic evaluation of margetuximab plus chemotherapy over trastuzumab plus chemotherapy for women with pretreated ERBB2-positive advanced breast cancer in the United States (US) and China., Methods: Based on the SOPHIA trial, a three-state Markov model was developed to compare the cost and efficacy of margetuximab to trastuzumab for previously treated women with ERBB2-positive advanced breast cancer. The model inputs were derived from existing literature and the US life table. Primary outcomes included lifetime costs in US dollars, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of uncertainty., Results: The base case analyses demonstrated that margetuximab plus chemotherapy had an increasing cost of $68,132 and $20,540 over trastuzumab plus chemotherapy in the US and China, respectively, with a gain of 0.11 and 0.09 QALYs both favored margetuximab. The ICERs for two treatment strategies were $260,176 in the US and $630,777 in China, resulting in a poor cost-effectiveness at their respective threshold of willingness to play. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results to be most sensitive to the price of margetuximab and that of trastuzumab. And an 11 and 82% price reduction of margetuximab would make this regimen cost-effective in the US and China, respectively., Conclusion: In the US and China, margetuximab plus chemotherapy is not likely to be cost-effective for women with pretreated ERBB2-positive advanced breast cancer, whereas price reduction effectively improves insufficient cost-effectiveness., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Tang, Xu, Gao, Chen, Zhu, Wang, Yan, Chen and Zhu.)

Purpose: To assess the cost effectiveness of microwave ablation (MWA) and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for patients with inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)., Materials and Methods: A literature search was performed in MEDLINE with broad search clusters. A decision-analytic model was constructed over a 5-year period. The model incorporated treatment-related complications and long-term recurrence. All clinical parameters were derived from the literature with preference to long-term prospective trials. A healthcare payers' perspective was adopted. Outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) extracted from prior studies and U.S. dollars from Medicare reimbursements and prior studies. Base case calculations, probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and multiple 1- and 2-way sensitivity analyses were performed., Results: MWA yielded a health benefit of 2.31 QALYs at a cost of $195,331, whereas SBRT yielded a health benefit of 2.33 QALYs at a cost of $225,271. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $1,480,597/QALY, indicating that MWA is the more cost-effective strategy. The conclusion remains unchanged in probabilistic sensitivity analysis with MWA being the optimal cost strategy in 99.84% simulations. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that MWA remains cost effective when its annual recurrence risk is <18.4% averaged over 5 years, when the SBRT annual recurrence risk is >1.44% averaged over 5 years, or when MWA is at least $7,500 cheaper than SBRT., Conclusions: MWA appears to be more cost effective than SBRT for patients with inoperable stage I NSCLC., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This paper analyzes the co-evolution of two major determinants of social welfare, namely, income and carbon emissions. In particular, by using a distribution dynamics approach based on Markov chains, we investigate the shape and behavior of the joint distribution of per-capita income and carbon dioxide emissions. We arrive at several interesting conclusions, especially in the context of international negotiations on climate change. First, evidence does not support theoretical models predicting the existence of a poverty-environment trap. Specifically, in the long-run two main groups of countries will emerge: poor versus polluting countries. Second, the typical development path leads initially to high emission levels and, subsequently, to high income. Third, the convergence process towards the stationary distribution is very slow. Finally, for carbon emissions, whenever it is observed, the environmental Kuznets curve seems to be only a transitory phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-state models can capture the different patterns of disease evolution. In particular, the illness-death model is used to follow disease progression from a healthy state to an intermediate state of the disease and to a death-related final state. We aim to use those models in order to adapt treatment decisions according to the evolution of the disease. In state-of-the art methods, the risks of transition between the states are modeled via (semi-) Markov processes and transition-specific Cox proportional hazard (P.H.) models. The Cox P.H. model assumes that each variable makes a linear contribution to the model, but the relationship between covariates and risks can be more complex in clinical situations. To address this challenge, we propose a neural network architecture called illness-death network (IDNetwork) that relaxes the linear Cox P.H. assumption within an illness-death process. IDNetwork employs a multi-task architecture and uses a set of fully connected subnetworks in order to learn the probabilities of transition. Through simulations, we explore different configurations of the architecture and demonstrate the added value of our model. IDNetwork significantly improves the predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on a simulated data set, on two clinical trials for patients with colon cancer and on a real-world data set in breast cancer., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Abstract: The paper proposes in a regime-shift framework, an arbitrage-free term structure model based on the target and Fed Funds Rates. Empirical observations suggest that a three-state regime-shift environment associated with FOMC monetary actions is justified. Then, a closed-form solution for zero-coupon bonds is derived where regime-shift risk is priced. The solution is flexible enough to incorporate additional state variables. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A statistical argument was presented quite recently, as an Op-Ed in The Los Angeles Times, purporting to conclude that the US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals should be split. A corresponding statistical counterargument and critique are introduced in the present paper, by making use of some combinatorial formulas and by proposing an alternative empirical approach. In addition, with this issue of the Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference dedicated to Ted Anderson, I also include here comments on his contributions to both statistical inference about Markov chains and to statistical inference about latent classes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of universal screening for hepatitis B immunity and vaccination among pregnant women in the United States., Methods: We designed a decision-analytic model to evaluate the outcomes, costs, and cost effectiveness associated with universal hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunity screening in pregnancy with vaccination of susceptible individuals compared with no screening. A theoretical cohort of 3.6 million women, the approximate number of annual live births in the United States, was used. Outcomes included cases of HBV, hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplant and death, in addition to cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Model inputs were derived from the literature, and the willingness-to-pay threshold was $50,000 per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation models were performed to evaluate the robustness of the results., Results: In a theoretical cohort of 3.6 million women, universal HBV immunity screening and vaccination resulted in 1,702 fewer cases of HBV, seven fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis, four fewer liver transplants, and 11 fewer deaths over the life expectancy of a woman after pregnancy. Universal screening and vaccination were found to be cost effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1,890 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the model was robust even when the prevalence of HBV immunity was high and the annual risk of HBV acquisition low., Conclusion: Among pregnant women in the United States, universal HBV immunity screening and vaccination of susceptible persons is cost effective compared with not routinely screening and vaccinating., Competing Interests: Financial Disclosure Laura E. Riley received funding from UpToDate and donated to Maven (donation in her name to SMFM). The other authors did not report any potential conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Severe posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent and debilitating condition in the United States. and globally. Using pooled efficacy data from six phase 2 trials, therapy using 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) appeared cost-saving from a payer's perspective. This study updates the cost-effectiveness analysis of this novel therapy using data from a new phase 3 trial, including the incremental cost-effectiveness of the more intensive phase 3 regimen compared with the shorter phase 2 regimen., Methods: We adapted a previously-published Markov model to portray the costs and health benefits of providing MDMA-assisted therapy (MDMA-AT) to patients with chronic, severe, or extreme PTSD in a recent phase 3 trial, compared with standard care. Inputs were based on trial results and published literature. The trial treated 90 patients with a clinician administered PTSD scale (CAPS-5) total severity score of 35 or greater at baseline, and duration of PTSD symptoms of 6 months or longer. The primary outcome was assessed 8 weeks after the final experimental session. Patients received three 90-minute preparatory psychotherapy sessions, three 8-hour active MDMA or placebo sessions, and nine 90-minute integrative psychotherapy sessions. Our model calculates the per-patient cost of MDMA-AT, net all-cause medical costs, mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We reported results from the U.S. health care payer's perspective for multiple analytic time horizons, (base-case is 30 years), and conducted extensive sensitivity analyses. Costs and QALYs were discounted by 3% annually. Costs were adjusted to 2020 U.S. dollars according to the medical component of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI)., Results: MDMA-AT as conducted in the phase 3 trial costs $11,537 per patient. Compared to standard of care for 1,000 patients, MDMA-AT generates discounted net health care savings of $132.9 million over 30 years, accruing 4,856 QALYs, and averting 61.4 premature deaths. MDMA-AT breaks even on cost at 3.8 years while delivering 887 QALYs. A third MDMA session generates additional medical savings and health benefits compared with a two-session regimen. Hypothetically assuming no savings in health care costs, MDMA-AT has an ICER of $2,384 per QALY gained., Conclusions: MDMA-AT provided to patients with severe or extreme chronic PTSD is cost-saving from a payer's perspective, while delivering substantial clinical benefit., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Importance: Lifelong immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) is standard-of-care treatment for congenital agammaglobulinemia but accrues high annual costs ($30 000-$90 000 per year) and decrements to quality of life over patients' life spans. Hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) offers an alternative 1-time therapy, but has high morbidity and mortality., Objective: To evaluate the cost utility of IRT vs matched sibling donor (MSD) and matched unrelated donor (MUD) HSCT to treat patients with agammaglobulinemia in the US., Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used Markov analysis to model the base-case scenario of a patient aged 12 months with congenital agammaglobulinemia receiving lifelong IRT vs MSD or MUD HSCT. Costs, probabilities, and quality-of-life measures were derived from the literature. Microsimulations estimated premature deaths for each strategy in a virtual cohort. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated uncertainty around parameter estimates performed from a societal perspective over a 100-year time horizon. The threshold for cost-effective care was set at $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). This study was conducted from 2020 across a 100-year time horizon., Exposures: Immunoglobulin replacement therapy vs MSD or MUD HSCT for treatment of congenital agammaglobulinemia., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed in 2020 US dollars per QALY gained and premature deaths associated with each strategy., Results: In this economic evaluation of patients with congenital agammaglobulinemia, lifelong IRT cost more than HSCT ($1 512 946 compared with $563 776 [MSD] and $637 036 [MUD]) and generated similar QALYs (20.61 vs 17.25 [MSD] and 17.18 [MUD]). Choosing IRT over MSD or MUD HSCT yielded ICERs of $282 166 per QALY gained over MSD and $255 633 per QALY gained over MUD HSCT, exceeding the US willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. However, IRT prevented at least 2488 premature deaths per 10 000 microsimulations compared with HSCT. When annual IRT price was reduced from $60 145 to below $29 469, IRT became the cost-effective strategy. Findings remained robust in sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Conclusions and Relevance: In the US, IRT is more expensive than HSCT for agammaglobulinemia treatment. The findings of this study suggest that IRT prevents more premature deaths but does not substantially increase quality of life relative to HSCT. Reducing US IRT cost by 51% to a value similar to IRT prices in countries implementing value-based pricing may render it the more cost-effective strategy.

Background: The anti-fibrotic medications nintedanib and pirfenidone were approved in the United States for use in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis several years ago. While there is a growing body of evidence surrounding their clinical effectiveness, these medications are quite expensive and no prior cost-effectiveness analysis has been performed in the United States., Methods: A previously published Markov model performed in the United Kingdom was replicated using United States data to project the lifetime costs and health benefits of treating idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with: (1) symptom management; (2) pirfenidone; or (3) nintedanib. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, strategies were ranked by increasing costs and then checked for dominating treatment strategies. Then an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated for the dominant therapy., Results: The anti-fibrotic medications were found to cost more than $110,000 per year compared to $12,291 annually for symptom management. While pirfenidone was slightly more expensive than nintedanib and provided the same amount of benefit, neither medication was found to be cost-effective in this U.S.-based analysis, with an average cost of $1.6 million to gain one additional quality-adjusted life year over symptom management., Conclusions: Though the anti-fibrotics remain the only effective treatment option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and the data surrounding their clinical effectiveness continues to grow, they are not considered cost-effective treatment strategies in the United States due to their high price., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: An ongoing debate exists over the optimal management of low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. The American Thyroid Association supports the concept of active surveillance to manage low-risk papillary thyroid cancer; however, the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance has not yet been established. We sought to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing active surveillance versus surgical intervention for patients in the United States., Methods: A Markov decision tree model was developed to compare active surveillance and thyroid lobectomy. Our reference case is a 40-year-old female who was diagnosed with unifocal (<15 mm), low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Probabilistic outcomes, costs, and health utilities were determined using an extensive literature review. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $50,000/quality-adjusted life year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainty in the model's variables., Results: Lobectomy provided a final effectiveness of 21.7/quality-adjusted life years, compared with 17.3/quality-adjusted life years for active surveillance. Furthermore, incremental cost effectiveness ratio for lobectomy versus active surveillance was $19,560/quality-adjusted life year (

Purpose: Tumor molecular analyses in endometrial cancer (EC) includes 4 distinct subtypes: (1) POLE-mutated, (2) mismatch repair protein (MMR) deficient, (3) p53 mutant, and (4) no specific molecular profile. Recently, a sub-analysis of PORTEC-3 demonstrated notable differences in treatment response between molecular classification (MC) groups. Cost of testing is one barrier to widespread adoption of MC. Therefore, we sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of MC in patients with stage I and II high-risk EC., Methods: A Markov decision model was developed to compare tumor molecular classification (TMC) vs. no testing (NT). A healthcare payor's perspective and 5-year time horizon were used. Base case data were abstracted from PORTEC-3 and the molecular sub-analysis. Cost and utility data were derived from public databases, peer-reviewed literature, and expert input. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with effectiveness in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and evaluated with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness., Results: When compared to NT, TMC was cost effective with an ICER of $25,578 per QALY gained; incremental cost was $1780 and incremental effectiveness was 0.070 QALYs. In one-way sensitivity analyses, results were most sensitive to the cost of POLE testing, but TMC remained cost-effective over all parameter ranges., Conclusions: TMC in early-stage high-risk EC is cost-effective, and the model results were robust over a range of parameters. Given that MC can be used to guide adjuvant treatment decisions, these findings support adoption of TMC into routine practice., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Dr. Buckanovich is a co-founder for Tradewinds Biosciences. Dr. Beriwal is a consultant for Elsevier Pathway and a member of the Data Safety Monitoring Board for Xoft. Dr. Beriwal was a faculty member in the Department of Radiation Oncology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center at the time that this project was conceived and conducted; he is now employed at Varian Medical Systems., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Molecular testing is now commonly used to refine the diagnosis of indeterminate thyroid nodules. The purpose of this study is to compare the costs of a reflexive molecular testing strategy to a selective testing strategy for indeterminate thyroid nodules., Methods: A Markov model was constructed to estimate the annual cost of diagnosis and treatment of a real-world cohort of patients with cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules, comparing a reflexive testing strategy to a selective testing strategy. Model variables were abstracted from institutional clinical trial data, literature review, and the Medicare physician fee schedule., Results: The average cost per patient in the reflexive testing strategy was $8,045, compared with $6,090 in the selective testing strategy. In 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, diagnostic thyroid lobectomy for benign nodules was performed in 2,440 patients in the reflexive testing arm, compared with 3,389 patients in the selective testing arm, and unintentional observation for malignant nodules occurred in 479 patients in the reflexive testing arm, compared with 772 patients in the selective testing arm. The cost of molecular testing had the greatest impact on overall costs, with $1,050 representing the cost below which the reflexive testing strategy was cost saving compared with the selective testing strategy., Conclusion: In this cost-modeling study, reflexive molecular testing for indeterminate thyroid nodules enabled patients to avoid unnecessary thyroid lobectomy at an estimated cost of $20,600 per surgery avoided., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The cost-effectiveness of screening mammography beyond age 75 years remains unclear., Objective: To estimate benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending mammography to age 80, 85, or 90 years according to comorbidity burden., Design: Markov microsimulation model., Data Sources: SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium., Target Population: U.S. women aged 65 to 90 years in groups defined by Charlson comorbidity score (CCS)., Time Horizon: Lifetime., Perspective: National health payer., Intervention: Screening mammography to age 75, 80, 85, or 90 years., Outcome Measures: Breast cancer death, survival, and costs., Results of Base-Case Analysis: Extending biennial mammography from age 75 to 80 years averted 1.7, 1.4, and 1.0 breast cancer deaths and increased days of life gained by 5.8, 4.2, and 2.7 days per 1000 women for comorbidity scores of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Annual mammography beyond age 75 years was not cost-effective, but extending biennial mammography to age 80 years was ($54 000, $65 000, and $85 000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained for women with CCSs of 0, 1, and ≥2, respectively). Overdiagnosis cases were double the number of deaths averted from breast cancer., Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Costs per QALY gained were sensitive to changes in invasive cancer incidence and shift of breast cancer stage with screening mammography., Limitation: No randomized controlled trials of screening mammography beyond age 75 years are available to provide model parameter inputs., Conclusion: Although annual mammography is not cost-effective, biennial screening mammography to age 80 years is; however, the absolute number of deaths averted is small, especially for women with comorbidities. Women considering screening beyond age 75 years should weigh the potential harms of overdiagnosis versus the potential benefit of averting death from breast cancer., Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute and National Institutes of Health.

Background: A pediatric field triage strategy that meets the national policy benchmark of ≥95% sensitivity would likely improve health outcomes but increase heath care costs. Our objective was to compare the cost-effectiveness of current pediatric field triage practices to an alternative field triage strategy that meets the national policy benchmark of ≥95% sensitivity., Study Design: We developed a decision-analysis Markov model to compare the outcomes and costs of the two strategies. We used a prospectively collected cohort of 3507 (probability weighted, unweighted n = 2832) injured children transported by 44 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to 28 trauma and non-trauma centers in the Northwestern United States from 1/1/2011 to 12/31/2011 to derive the alternative field triage strategy and to populate model probability and cost inputs for both strategies. We compared the two strategies by calculating quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs over a time horizon from the time of injury until death. We set an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio threshold of less than $100,000 per QALY for the alternative field triage to be a cost-effective strategy., Results: Current pediatric field triage practices had a sensitivity of 87.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71.9 to 95.0%) and a specificity of 82.3% (95% CI 81.0 to 83.5%) and the alternative field triage strategy had a sensitivity of 97.3% (95% CI 82.6 to 99.6%) and a specificity of 46.1% (95% CI 43.8 to 48.4%). The alternative field triage strategy would cost $476,396 per QALY gained compared to current pediatric field triage practices and thus would not be a cost-effective strategy. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated similar findings., Conclusion: Current field triage practices do not meet national policy benchmarks for sensitivity. However, an alternative field triage strategy that meets the national policy benchmark of ≥95% sensitivity is not a cost-effective strategy., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors report no conflicts of interests., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The phase III KEYNOTE-604 study confirmed the benefit of pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC). Taken into account the clinical benefits of pembrolizumab and its high cost, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to standard first-line etoposide-platinum (EP) for patients with ES-SCLC from the US payer perspective., Methods: A Markov model was developed to compare the cost and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of pembrolizumab plus EP and placebo plus EP over a 10-year time horizon. Clinical efficacy and safety data were pooled from the KEYNOTE-604 trial. Utilities were obtained from published resources. Costs were mainly collected from Medicare in 2020. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of our model., Results: Adding pembrolizumab to standard first-line EP resulted in the better effectiveness than EP chemotherapy alone for ES-SCLC by 0.22 QALYs. Pembrolizumab plus EP was dominated economically by placebo plus EP, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $334,373/ QALY. Deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated that the uncertainty in model parameters exerted no substantial effect on our results. Probability sensitivity analysis indicated that probabilities for pembrolizumab plus EP being cost-effective within a wide range of willingness to pay were modest., Conclusion: From the US payer perspective, the first-line treatment for ES-SCLC with pembrolizumab plus EP was not cost-effective compared with placebo plus EP. Although pembrolizumab combination chemotherapy was beneficial to the survival of ES-SCLC, price reduction may be the necessary to improve its cost-effectiveness., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated gene therapy is a novel treatment promising to reduce morbidity associated with hemophilia. Although multiple clinical trials continue to evaluate efficacy and safety, limited cost-effectiveness data have been published. This study compared the potential cost-effectiveness of AAV-mediated factor IX (FIX)-Padua gene therapy for patients with severe hemophilia B in the United States vs on-demand FIX replacement and primary FIX prophylaxis, using either standard or extended half-life FIX products. A microsimulation Markov model was constructed, and transition probabilities between health states and utilities were informed by using published data. Costs were aggregated by using a microcosting approach. A time horizon from 18 years old until death, from the perspective of a third-party payer in the United States, was conducted. Gene therapy was more cost-effective than both alternatives considering a $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. The price for gene therapy was assumed to be $2 000 000 in the base case scenario; however, one of the 1-way sensitivity analyses was conducted by using observed manufacturing, administration, and 5-year follow-up costs of $87 198 for AAV-mediated gene therapy vector as derived from the manufacturing facility and clinical practice at St Jude Children's Research Hospital. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed 10 of 102 scenarios in which gene therapy was not cost-effective compared with alternative treatments. Notably, gene therapy remained cost-effective in a hypothetical scenario in which we estimated that the discounted factor concentrate price was 20% of the wholesale acquisition cost in the United States. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimated gene therapy to be cost-effective at 92% of simulations considering a $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. In conclusion, based on detailed simulation inputs and assumptions, gene therapy was more cost-effective than on-demand treatment and prophylaxis for patients with severe hemophilia B., (© 2021 by The American Society of Hematology.)

Objective: To perform a cost-effectiveness evaluation comparing the management options for mid-size (1-2cm) renal stones including percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS), and shockwave lithotripsy (SWL)., Methods: A Markov model was created to compare cost-effectiveness of PCNL, mini-PCNL, RIRS, and SWL for 1-2cm lower pole (index patient 1) and PCNL, RIRS, and SWL for 1-2 cm non-lower pole (index patient 2) renal stones. A literature review provided stone free, complication, retreatment, secondary procedure rates, and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Medicare costs were used. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was compared with a willingness-to-pay(WTP) threshold of $100,000/QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed., Results: At 3 years, costs for index patient 1 were $10,290(PCNL), $10,109(mini-PCNL), $5,930(RIRS), and $10,916(SWL). Mini-PCNL resulted in the highest QALYs(2.953) followed by PCNL(2.951), RIRS(2.946), and SWL(2.943). This translated to RIRS being most cost-effective followed by mini-PCNL(ICER $624,075/QALY) and PCNL(ICER $946,464/QALY). SWL was dominated with higher costs and lower effectiveness. For index patient 2, RIRS dominated both PCNL and SWL. For index patient 1: mini-PCNL and PCNL became cost effective if cost ≤$5,940 and ≤$5,390, respectively. SWL became cost-effective with SFR ≥75% or cost ≤$1,236. On probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the most cost-effective strategy was RIRS in 97%, mini-PCNL in 2%, PCNL in 1%, and SWL in 0% of simulations., Conclusion: For 1-2cm renal stones, RIRS is most cost-effective. However, mini and standard PCNL could become cost-effective at lower costs, particularly for lower pole stones., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is associated with low median overall survival. Combination chemotherapy regimens FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine with nab-paclitaxel (GemNab) are the new adjuvant treatment standards for resectable pancreatic cancer. PRODIGE-24 and APACT trials demonstrated superior clinical outcomes with FOLFIRINOX and GemNab, each vs gemcitabine monotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of FOLFIRINOX vs GemNab for resectable pancreatic cancer in adults from the U.S. payer perspective, in order to inform decision makers about which of these treatments is optimal. METHODS: A Markov model with 3 disease states (relapse free, progressive disease, and death) was developed. Cycle length was 1 month, and time horizon was 10 years. Transition probabilities were derived from PRODIGE-24 and APACT survival data. All cost and utility input parameters were obtained from published literature. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to obtain total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years (LYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). A 3% annual discount rate was applied to costs and outcomes. The effect of uncertainty on model parameters was assessed with 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). RESULTS: Our analysis estimated that the cost for FOLFIRINOX was $40,831 higher than GemNab ($99,669 vs. $58,837). Despite increased toxicity, FOLFIRINOX was associated with additional 0.18 QALYs and 0.25 LYs compared with GemNab (QALY: 1.65 vs. 1.47; LY: 2.09 vs. 1.84). The ICER for FOLFIRINOX vs GemNab was $226,841 per QALY and $163,325 per LY. FOLFIRINOX was not cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $200,000 per QALY, and this was confirmed by the PSA. CONCLUSIONS: Total monthly cost for FOLFIRINOX was approximately 1.7 times higher than GemNab. If the WTP threshold increases to or above $250,000 per QALY, FOLFIRINOX then becomes a cost-effective treatment option. DISCLOSURES: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

We construct a recursive Bayesian smoother, termed EpiFilter, for estimating the effective reproduction number, R, from the incidence of an infectious disease in real time and retrospectively. Our approach borrows from Kalman filtering theory, is quick and easy to compute, generalisable, deterministic and unlike many current methods, requires no change-point or window size assumptions. We model R as a flexible, hidden Markov state process and exactly solve forward-backward algorithms, to derive R estimates that incorporate all available incidence information. This unifies and extends two popular methods, EpiEstim, which considers past incidence, and the Wallinga-Teunis method, which looks forward in time. We find that this combination of maximising information and minimising assumptions significantly reduces the bias and variance of R estimates. Moreover, these properties make EpiFilter more statistically robust in periods of low incidence, where several existing methods can become destabilised. As a result, EpiFilter offers improved inference of time-varying transmission patterns that are advantageous for assessing the risk of upcoming waves of infection or the influence of interventions, in real time and at various spatial scales., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.