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Introduction: The Department of Defense uses a universal prevention framework for sexual assault prevention, with each branch implementing its own branch-wide programs. Intensive interventions exist, but would be cost effective only if targeted at high-risk personnel. This study developed actuarial models to identify male U.S. Army soldiers at high risk of administratively recorded sexual assault perpetration.Methods: This study investigated administratively recorded sexual assault perpetration among the 821,807 male Army soldiers serving 2004-2009. Administrative data were also used to operationalize the predictors. Penalized discrete-time (person-month) survival analysis (conducted in 2016) was used to select the smallest possible number of stable predictors to maximize number of sexual assaults among the 5% of soldiers with highest predicted risk of perpetration (top-ventile concentration of risk). Separate models were developed for assaults against non-family and intra-family adults and minors.Results: There were 4,640 male soldiers found to be perpetrators against non-family adults, 1,384 against non-family minors, 380 against intra-family adults, and 335 against intra-family minors. Top-ventile concentration of risk was 16.2%-20.2% predicting perpetration against non-family adults and minors and 34.2%-65.1% against intra-family adults and minors. Final predictors consisted largely of measures of prior crime involvement and the presence and treatment of mental disorders.Conclusions: Administrative data can be used to develop actuarial models that identify a high proportion of sexual assault perpetrators. If a system is developed to consolidate administrative predictors routinely, then predictions could be generated periodically to identify those in need of preventive intervention. Whether this would be cost effective, though, would depend on intervention costs, effectiveness, and competing risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe U.S. Army uses universal preventives interventions for several negative outcomes (e.g. suicide, violence, sexual assault) with especially high risks in the early years of service. More intensive interventions exist, but would be cost-effective only if targeted at high-risk soldiers. We report results of efforts to develop models for such targeting from self-report surveys administered at the beginning of Army service.Methods21 832 new soldiers completed a self-administered questionnaire (SAQ) in 2011–2012 and consented to link administrative data to SAQ responses. Penalized regression models were developed for 12 administratively-recorded outcomes occurring by December 2013: suicide attempt, mental hospitalization, positive drug test, traumatic brain injury (TBI), other severe injury, several types of violence perpetration and victimization, demotion, and attrition.ResultsThe best-performing models were for TBI (AUC = 0.80), major physical violence perpetration (AUC = 0.78), sexual assault perpetration (AUC = 0.78), and suicide attempt (AUC = 0.74). Although predicted risk scores were significantly correlated across outcomes, prediction was not improved by including risk scores for other outcomes in models. Of particular note: 40.5% of suicide attempts occurred among the 10% of new soldiers with highest predicted risk, 57.2% of male sexual assault perpetrations among the 15% with highest predicted risk, and 35.5% of female sexual assault victimizations among the 10% with highest predicted risk.ConclusionsData collected at the beginning of service in self-report surveys could be used to develop risk models that define small proportions of new soldiers accounting for high proportions of negative outcomes over the first few years of service. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BackgroundThe stress sensitization theory hypothesizes that individuals exposed to childhood adversity will be more vulnerable to mental disorders from proximal stressors. We aimed to test this theory with respect to risk of 30-day major depressive episode (MDE) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among new US Army soldiers.MethodsThe sample consisted of 30 436 new soldier recruits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (Army STARRS). Generalized linear models were constructed, and additive interactions between childhood maltreatment profiles and level of 12-month stressful experiences on the risk of 30-day MDE and GAD were analyzed.ResultsStress sensitization was observed in models of past 30-day MDE (χ28 = 17.6, p = 0.025) and GAD (χ28 = 26.8, p = 0.001). This sensitization only occurred at high (3+) levels of reported 12-month stressful experiences. In pairwise comparisons for the risk of 30-day MDE, the risk difference between 3+ stressful experiences and no stressful experiences was significantly greater for all maltreatment profiles relative to No Maltreatment. Similar results were found with the risk for 30-day GAD with the exception of the risk difference for Episodic Emotional and Sexual Abuse, which did not differ statistically from No Maltreatment.ConclusionsNew soldiers are at an increased risk of 30-day MDE or GAD following recent stressful experiences if they were exposed to childhood maltreatment. Particularly in the military with an abundance of unique stressors, attempts to identify this population and improve stress management may be useful in the effort to reduce the risk of mental disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Prior studies have documented associations of childhood bullying victimization with suicidal behaviors. However, many failed to adjust for concomitant risk factors and none investigated this relationship in military personnel. This study aimed to estimate independent associations of childhood bullying victimization with suicidal behaviors among U.S. Army soldiers.Methods: Soldiers reporting for basic training completed a cross-sectional survey assessing mental disorders, suicidal behaviors, and childhood adversities including two types of bullying victimization: (1) Physical Assault/Theft and (2) Bullying Comments/Behaviors. Associations of childhood bullying experiences with suicidal behaviors were estimated using discrete-time survival analysis of person-year data from 30,436 soldiers. Models adjusted for sociodemographic factors, childhood maltreatment by adults, and mental disorders.Results: After comprehensive adjustment for other risk factors, more frequent Physical Assault/Theft by peers during childhood was associated with increased odds of lifetime suicidal ideation (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.11-1.26, P < .001) and attempt (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.13-1.50, P < .001). More frequent Bullying Comments/Behaviors were associated with increased risk of ideation (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.26-1.35, P < .001), plan (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.35-1.54, P < .001), attempt (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.15-1.33, P < .001), and onset of plan among ideators (AOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.15, P = .002). Relative to no bullying victimization, exposure to the most persistent bullying was associated with two- to fourfold increase in risk for suicidal behaviors.Conclusions: Childhood bullying victimization is associated with lifetime suicidal behaviors among new soldiers. Exposure to Bullying Comments/Behaviors during childhood is associated with progression from suicidal ideation to plan. Improved recognition of these relationships may inform risk mitigation interventions for soldiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To examine associations of administratively recorded sexual assault victimization during military service with subsequent mental health and negative career outcomes among US Army women controlling for nonrandom victimization exposure. Methods. We used data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers to apply propensity score methods to match all 4238 female Regular Army soldiers with administratively recorded sexual assault victimization during 2004 to 2009 to 5 controls per case with similar composite victimization risk. We examined associations of this victimization measure with administratively recorded mental health treatment, suicide attempt, and Army career outcomes over the subsequent 12 months by using survival analysis for dichotomous outcomes and conditional generalized linear models for continuous outcomes. Results. Women with administratively recorded sexual assault had significantly elevated odds ratios (ORs) of subsequent mental health treatment (any, OR= 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4,2.6; specialty, OR= 3.1;95%CI = 2.9,3.3; inpatient, OR= 2.8;95%CI = 2.5,3.1), posttraumatic stress disorder treatment (any, OR= 6.3; 95% CI = 5.7, 6.9; specialty, OR= 7.7; 95% CI = 6.8, 8.6; inpatient, OR= 6.8; 95% CI = 5.4, 8.6), suicide attempt (OR= 3.0; 95% CI = 2.5, 3.6), demotion (OR= 2.1; 95% CI = 1.9, 2.3), and attrition (OR= 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.2). Conclusions. Sexual assault victimization is associated with considerable suffering and likely decreased force readiness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To derive job condition scales for future studies of the effects of job conditions on soldier health and job functioning across Army Military Occupation Specialties (MOSs) and Areas of Concentration (AOCs) using Department of Labor (DoL) Occupational Information Network (O*NET) ratings.Methods: A consolidated administrative dataset was created for the "Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers" (Army STARRS) containing all soldiers on active duty between 2004 and 2009. A crosswalk between civilian occupations and MOS/AOCs (created by DoL and the Defense Manpower Data Center) was augmented to assign scores on all 246 O*NET dimensions to each soldier in the dataset. Principal components analysis was used to summarize these dimensions.Results: Three correlated components explained the majority of O*NET dimension variance: "physical demands" (20.9% of variance), "interpersonal complexity" (17.5%), and "substantive complexity" (15.0%). Although broadly consistent with civilian studies, several discrepancies were found with civilian results reflecting potentially important differences in the structure of job conditions in the Army versus the civilian labor force.Conclusions: Principal components scores for these scales provide a parsimonious characterization of key job conditions that can be used in future studies of the effects of MOS/AOC job conditions on diverse outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers., Method: A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004-2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011-2013 sample., Results: Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80-0.82 in 2004-2009 and 0.77 in the 2011-2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2-33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004-2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011-2013 validation sample., Conclusions: Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.

Background: Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate., Method: The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009., Results: There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2-39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2-22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-1.8). Adjustment for a differential 'healthy warrior effect' cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status., Conclusions: Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.

Background: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment., Method: Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004-2009 (n = 975,057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders., Results: The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100,000 person-years) was 3.1-3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100,000 person-years) was 0.9-1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9-2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables., Conclusions: These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.