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Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, including 14 US studies from 1981-2010, to develop HNC risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop the risk prediction models; the remaining 30% were used to validate the models. We used competing-risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity, and/or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute risk of HNC was 7.61% for a 60-year-old woman who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for over 20 years, consumed 3 or more alcoholic drinks per day, was a high school graduate, had a family history of HNC, and was non-Hispanic white. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85%. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. Statistics for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.70 or higher, except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. This HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation or in aiding persons with a family history of HNC to evaluate their risks., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

There have been few published studies on differences between Blacks and Whites in the estimated effects of alcohol and tobacco use on the incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in the United States. Previous studies have been limited by small numbers of Blacks. Using pooled data from 13 US case-control studies of oral, pharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium, this study comprised a large number of Black HNC cases (n = 975). Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for several tobacco and alcohol consumption characteristics. Blacks were found to have consistently stronger associations than Whites for the majority of tobacco consumption variables. For example, compared to never smokers, Blacks who smoked cigarettes for > 30 years had an OR 4.53 (95% CI 3.22-6.39), which was larger than that observed in Whites (OR 3.01, 95% CI 2.73-3.33; p interaction  < 0.0001). The ORs for alcohol use were also larger among Blacks compared to Whites. Exclusion of oropharyngeal cases attenuated the racial differences in tobacco use associations but not alcohol use associations. These findings suggest modest racial differences exist in the association of HNC risk with tobacco and alcohol consumption.

Food and nutrition play an important role in head and neck cancer (HNC) etiology; however, the role of carotenoids remains largely undefined. We explored the relation of HNC risk with the intake of carotenoids within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. We pooled individual-level data from 10 case-control studies conducted in Europe, North America, and Japan. The analysis included 18,207 subjects (4414 with oral and pharyngeal cancer, 1545 with laryngeal cancer, and 12,248 controls), categorized by quintiles of carotenoid intake from natural sources. Comparing the highest with the lowest quintile, the risk reduction associated with total carotenoid intake was 39 % (95 % CI 29-47 %) for oral/pharyngeal cancer and 39 % (95 % CI 24-50 %) for laryngeal cancer. Intakes of β-carotene equivalents, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, and lutein plus zeaxanthin were associated with at least 18 % reduction in the rate of oral and pharyngeal cancer (95 % CI 6-29 %) and 17 % reduction in the rate of laryngeal cancer (95 % CI 0-32 %). The overall protective effect of carotenoids on HNC was stronger for subjects reporting greater alcohol consumption (p < 0.05). The odds ratio for the combined effect of low carotenoid intake and high alcohol or tobacco consumption versus high carotenoid intake and low alcohol or tobacco consumption ranged from 7 (95 % CI 5-9) to 33 (95 % CI 23-49). A diet rich in carotenoids may protect against HNC. Persons with both low carotenoid intake and high tobacco or alcohol are at substantially higher risk of HNC.

Evidence of associations between single nutrients and head and neck cancer (HNC) is still more limited and less consistent than that for fruit and vegetables. However, clarification of the protective mechanisms of fruit and vegetables is important to our understanding of HNC etiology. We investigated the association between vitamin C intake from natural sources and cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx and larynx using individual-level pooled data from ten case-control studies (5,959 cases and 12,248 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. After harmonization of study-specific exposure information via the residual method, adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional multiple logistic regression models on quintile categories of 'non-alcohol energy-adjusted' vitamin C intake. In the presence of heterogeneity of the estimated ORs among studies, we derived those estimates from generalized linear mixed models. Higher intakes of vitamin C were inversely related to oral and pharyngeal (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.45-0.65, for the fifth quintile category versus the first one, p for trend<0.001) and laryngeal cancers (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40-0.68, p for trend = 0.006), although in the presence of heterogeneity among studies for both sites. Inverse associations were consistently observed for the anatomical subsites of oral and pharyngeal cancer, and across strata of age, sex, education, body mass index, tobacco, and alcohol, for both cancer sites. The inverse association of vitamin C intake from foods with HNC may reflect a protective effect on these cancers; however, we cannot rule out other explanations., (© 2014 UICC.)