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In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R0. Without self-isolation, when R0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4-50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R0 = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4-75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid and effective detection and identification of emerging microbiological threats and potential biowarfare agents is very challenging when using traditional culture-based methods. Contemporary molecular techniques, relying upon reverse transcription and/or polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR/PCR) provide a rapid and effective alternative, however, such assays are generally designed and optimized to detect only a limited number of targets, and seldom are capable of differentiation among variants of detected targets. To meet these challenges, we have designed a broad-range resequencing pathogen microarray (RPM) for detection of tropical and emerging infectious agents (TEI) including biothreat agents: RPM-TEI v 1.0 (RPM-TEI). The scope of the RPM-TEI assay enables detection and differential identification of 84 types of pathogens and 13 toxin genes, including most of the class A, B and C select agents as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, Atlanta, GA). Due to the high risks associated with handling these particular target pathogens, the sensitivity validation of the RPM-TEI has been performed using an innovative approach, in which synthetic DNA fragments are used as templates for testing the assay's limit of detection (LOD). Assay specificity and sensitivity was subsequently confirmed by testing with full-length genomic nucleic acids of selected agents. The LOD for a majority of the agents detected by RPM-TEI was determined to be at least 104 copies per test. Our results also show that the RPM-TEI assay not only detects and identifies agents, but is also able to differentiate near neighbors of the same agent types, such as closely related strains of filoviruses of the Ebola Zaire group, or the Machupo and Lassa arenaviruses. Furthermore, each RPM-TEI assay results in specimen-specific agent gene sequence information that can be used to assess pathogenicity, mutations, and virulence markers, results that are not generally available from multiplexed RT-PCR/PCR-based detection assays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature has documented positive announcement effects for privately placed seasoned equity issues. This study shows positive announcement effects not only for private but also for public placements in Hong Kong. Our unique data offer new insights not obtainable from U.S. data as we examine the cross-sections of the announcement effects. Most importantly, we find that the announcement effect is more likely to be positive for smaller issuers, such as private placing firms and some public issuers where asymmetric information arises more from growth than from assets in place. This finding is consistent with the generalized Myers-Majluf model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of house pricing has been of constant interest in real estate literature. Significant effort has been devoted to testing the efficiency of the housing market. Three types of efficiency based on the information content have been defined. What is relevant to this article is the weak efficiency. In a weakly efficient market, the excess return is zero when past prices and returns are available. Previous research, in general, rejected the weakly efficient hypothesis. Both house prices and excess returns exhibit serial correlation, which makes it possible to predict future prices and excess returns using historical prices and returns. In this paper, the factors that have an impact on the weak efficiency have also been studied. Instead of directly modeling those factors, a special market for the study has been chosen. This market lacks some of the attributes that were cited by researchers in explaining market inefficiency. The logic behind the methodology is that, if the weakly efficient hypothesis is rejected in this market, then attributes that have been cited in previous studies but do not present in this market may not be as important as those presented in this market.

Purpose We investigated the correlation between the number of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) and correct staging and long-term survival in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using large databases and determined the minimal threshold for the ELN count. Methods Data from a Chinese multi-institutional registry and the US SEER database on stage I to IIIA resected NSCLC (2001 to 2008) were analyzed for the relationship between the ELN count and stage migration and overall survival (OS) by using multivariable models. The series of the mean positive LNs, odds ratios (ORs), and hazard ratios (HRs) were fitted with a LOWESS smoother, and the structural break points were determined by Chow test. The selected cut point was validated with the SEER 2009 cohort. Results Although the distribution of ELN count differed between the Chinese registry (n = 5,706) and the SEER database (n = 38,806; median, 15 versus seven, respectively), both cohorts exhibited significantly proportional increases from N0 to N1 and N2 disease (SEER OR, 1.038; China OR, 1.012; both P < .001) and serial improvements in OS (N0 disease: SEER HR, 0.986; China HR, 0.981; both P < .001; N1 and N2 disease: SEER HR, 0.989; China HR, 0.984; both P < .001) as the ELN count increased after controlling for confounders. Cut point analysis showed a threshold ELN count of 16 in patients with declared node-negative disease, which were examined in the derivation cohorts (SEER 2001 to 2008 HR, 0.830; China HR, 0.738) and validated in the SEER 2009 cohort (HR, 0.837). Conclusion A greater number of ELNs is associated with more-accurate node staging and better long-term survival of resected NSCLC. We recommend 16 ELNs as the cut point for evaluating the quality of LN examination or prognostic stratification postoperatively for patients with declared node-negative disease.