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Abstract: The use of quantitative rainfall forecasts as input to a rainfall-runoff model, thereby extending the lead-time of flow forecasts, is relatively new. This paper presents results from a study in which real-time river flow forecasts were calculated for the River Uruguay basin lying within southern Brazil, using a method based on observed rainfall, quantitative forecasts of rainfall given by a regional numerical weather-prediction model, and rainfall-runoff simulation by a distributed hydrological model. The performance of discharge forecasts was evaluated over a continuous 167-day period and from one selected flood event, using rainfall forecasts at three spatial resolutions. The performance of these forecasts was also compared with that of forecasts obtained (a) by assuming that no further rain would fall, and (b) by assuming that rainfall forecasts were equal to the rainfall actually recorded, this representing a surrogate for ’perfect’ rainfall forecasts. The results show that for the basin considered, there is plenty of scope for improving usefulness of rainfall forecasts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

One of the main causes of water conflicts in transboundary watersheds all over the world is represented by the increasing water demand due to urban, industrial, and agricultural development. In this context, water scarcity plays a critical role since, during a drought period, water supply is not sufficient to cover the demand of all water uses. In this work, we have conceptualized and developed a new scenario-based framework able to improve the sustainability and equity of water allocation among two or more riparian countries. The proposed approach is in accordance with the United Nations Watercourses Convention. It considers a hydraulic/hydrologic model, a water-management model, and combines them with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and what if scenario analysis (WISA). The suggested framework was applied to the transboundary watershed of Cuareim/Quaraí river (Uruguay/Brazil) to tackle a real water-sharing conflict. It resulted in being very flexible in exploring various policy options and test and quantifying them with different scenarios to reach an objective and impartial decision in a water-sharing issue. This framework can effectively be applied to any other transboundary watershed to resolve any possible conflict related to water-allocation/water-management matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]