Callander D, McManus H, Gray RT, Grulich AE, Carr A, Hoy J, Donovan B, Fairley CK, Holt M, Templeton DJ, Liaw ST, McMahon JH, Asselin J, Petoumenos K, Hellard M, Pedrana A, Elliott J, Keen P, Costello J, Keane R, Kaldor J, Stoové M, and Guy R
Background: Although HIV treatment-as-prevention reduces individual-level HIV transmission, population-level effects are unclear. We aimed to investigate whether treatment-as-prevention could achieve population-level reductions in HIV incidence among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in Australia's most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria., Methods: TAIPAN was a longitudinal cohort study using routine health record data extracted from 69 health services that provide HIV diagnosis and care to GBM in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Data from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2019, were linked within and between services and over time. TAIPAN collected data from all cisgender GBM who attended participating services, resided in New South Wales or Victoria, and were 16 years or older. Two cohorts were established: one included HIV-positive patients, and the other included HIV-negative patients. Population prevalence of viral suppression (plasma HIV viral load <200 RNA copies per μL) was calculated by combining direct measures of viral load among the HIV-positive cohort with estimates for undiagnosed GBM. The primary outcome of HIV incidence was measured directly via repeat testing in the HIV-negative cohort. Poisson regression analyses with generalised estimating equations assessed temporal associations between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence among the subsample of HIV-negative GBM with multiple instances of HIV testing., Findings: At baseline, the final sample (n=101 772) included 90 304 HIV-negative and 11 468 HIV-positive GBM. 59 234 patients in the HIV-negative cohort had two or more instances of HIV testing and were included in the primary analysis. Over the study period, population prevalence of viral suppression increased from 69·27% (95% CI 66·41-71·96) to 88·31% (86·37-90·35), while HIV incidence decreased from 0·64 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·55-0·76) to 0·22 per 100 person-years (0·17-0·28). Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, treatment-as-prevention achieved significant population-level reductions in HIV incidence among GBM: a 1% increase in population prevalence of viral suppression corresponded with a 6% decrease in HIV incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·93-0·96; p<0·0001). PrEP was introduced in 2016 with 17·60% uptake among GBM that year, which increased to 36·38% in 2019. The relationship between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence was observed before the availability of PrEP (IRR 0·98, 95% CI 0·96-0·99; p<0·0001) and was even stronger after the introduction of PrEP (0·80, 0·70-0·93; p=0·0030)., Interpretation: Our results suggest that further investment in HIV treatment, especially alongside PrEP, can improve public health by reducing HIV incidence among GBM., Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AC has received research funding from Gilead Sciences, MSD, and ViiV Healthcare; lecture and travel sponsorships from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare; and has served on advisory boards for Gilead Sciences, MSD, and ViiV Healthcare. JH's institution received reimbursement for her participation in Advisory Boards for Gilead Sciences, Merck Sharp & Dohme, and ViiV Healthcare. JC's affiliated organisation received reimbursement for her participation in advisory boards and for consultancy services from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare. AEG reports non-financial support from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from ViiV Healthcare for an educational course. RG is a co-investigator on projects that have received non-financial and research support from Gilead Sciences. PK has received payment for consultancy services from Gilead Sciences. AP received funding from Gilead Sciences and AbbVie for research activities unrelated to this work. MHe and MS received funding from Gilead Sciences and AbbVie for investigator-initiated research unrelated to this study. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)