Search

Background: The EVITE Immunity study investigated the effects of shielding Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people during the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes and healthcare costs in Wales, United Kingdom, to help prepare for future pandemics. Shielding was intended to protect those at highest risk of serious harm from COVID-19. We report the cost of implementing shielding in Wales. Methods: The number of people shielding was extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Resources supporting shielding between March and June 2020 were mapped using published reports, web pages, freedom of information requests to Welsh Government and personal communications (e.g. with the office of the Chief Medical Officer for Wales). Results: At the beginning of shielding, 117,415 people were on the shielding list. The total additional cost to support those advised to stay home during the initial 14 weeks of the pandemic was £13,307,654 (£113 per person shielded). This included the new resources required to compile the shielding list, inform CEV people of the shielding intervention and provide medicine and food deliveries. The list was adjusted weekly over the 3-month period (130,000 people identified by June 2020). Therefore the cost per person shielded lies between £102 and £113 per person. Conclusion: This is the first evaluation of the cost of the measures put in place to support those identified to shield in Wales. However, no data on opportunity cost was available. The true costs of shielding including its budget impact and opportunity costs need to be investigated to decide whether shielding is a worthwhile policy for future health emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the trajectory of wellbeing and psychological distress in a UK sample by comparing data taken from the first and second UK lockdowns. Wellbeing (indexed via the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale) and psychological distress (indexed via the K10) were measured in two surveys in large online samples from Wales, UK. The first survey (n = 12,989) took place 11–16 weeks into the first UK lockdown and the second survey (n = 10,428) took place 4–11 weeks into the second UK lockdown. Levels of wellbeing were lower in the second survey compared to the first survey, which were already low compared to pre-pandemic data (2019). Clinically significant levels of psychological distress were found in 40.4% of participants in the second survey, representing a 9.8% increase in prevalence from the first survey. Poorer mental health was found in women, younger adults, and those from deprived areas. The greatest reduction in mental health was found in the youngest age group (16-24 years old). The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to curb its spread continue to negatively impact the wellbeing of the UK population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Gypsies and Travellers have poorer physical and mental health than the general population, but little is known about mental health service use by Gypsy and Traveller children and young people. Finding this group in routine electronic health data is challenging, due to limited recording of ethnicity. We assessed the feasibility of using geographical markers combined with linked routine datasets to estimate the mental health service use of children and young people living on Traveller sites. Methods: Welsh Government supplied a list of Traveller site postcodes included in Caravan Counts between 2012 and 2020. Using spatial filtering with data from the Adolescent Mental Health Data Platform (ADP) at Swansea University's SAIL Databank, we created a cohort of Traveller site residents aged 11–25 years old, 2010–2019. ADP algorithms were used to describe health service use, and to estimate incidence and prevalence of common mental disorders (CMD) and self-harm. Results: Our study found a subgroup of young Gypsies and Travellers (n = 802). We found no significant differences between our cohort and the general population for rates of CMD or self-harm. The rate of non-attendance for psychiatric outpatient follow-up appointments was significantly higher in our cohort. Rates were higher (but not statistically significant) among Gypsies and Travellers for measures suggesting less well-managed care, including emergency department attendance and prescribed CMD medication without follow-up. The small size of the cohort resulted in imprecise estimates with wide confidence intervals, compared with those for the general population. Conclusions: Gypsies and Travellers are under-represented in routine health datasets, even using geographical markers, which find only those resident in authorised traveller sites. Routine data is increasingly relied upon for needs assessment and service planning, which has policy and practice implications for this underserved group. To address health inequalities effort is required to ensure that health datasets accurately capture ethnicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued to provide care to adults in their own homes throughout the COVID‐19 pandemic. The evidence of the impact of COVID‐19 on health outcomes of DCWs is currently mixed. The OSCAR study will quantify the impact of COVID‐19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, explore causes of variation and extrapolate to the rest of the UK DCW population. An embedded qualitative study aimed to explore DCW experiences during the pandemic, including factors that may have varied risk of exposure to COVID‐19 and adverse health and wellbeing outcomes. Registered DCWs working throughout Wales were invited to participate in a semi‐structured telephone interview. 24 DCWs were interviewed between February and July 2021. Themes were identified through inductive analysis using thematic coding. Several themes emerged relating to risk of exposure to COVID‐19. First, general changes to the role of the DCW during the pandemic were identified. Second, practical challenges for DCWs in the workplace were reported, including staff shortages, clients and families not following safety procedures, initial shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE), DCW criticism of standard use PPE, client difficulty with PPE and management of rapid antigen testing. Third, lack of government/employer preparation for a pandemic was described, including the reorganisation of staff clients and services, inadequate or confusing information for many DCWs, COVID‐19 training and the need for improved practical instruction and limited official standard risk assessments for DCWs. Pressure to attend work and perceptions of COVID‐19 risk and vaccination was also reported. In summary, this paper describes the risk factors associated with working during the pandemic. We have mapped recommendations for each problem using these qualitative findings including tailored training and better support for isolated team members and identified the required changes at several socio‐ecological levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates place the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (autism) at around 1% in the population. New services for adult diagnosis have been set up in Wales, UK, at a time of rising awareness of the spectrum of autism experiences; however, no studies have examined adult autism prevalence in Wales. In this study, we used an anonymised e-cohort comprised of healthcare record data to produce all-age estimates of prevalence and incidence of recorded autism for the years 2001–2016. We found the overall prevalence rate of autism in healthcare records was 0.51%. The number of new)recorded cases of autism increased from 0.188 per 1000 person-years in 2001 to 0.644 per 1000 person-years in 2016. The estimate of 0.51% prevalence in the population is lower than suggested by population survey and cohort studies study methodologies, but comparable to other administrative record study estimates. Rates of new incident diagnoses of autism saw a >150% increase in the years 2008–2016, with a trend towards more diagnoses in those aged over 35years and an eightfold increase in diagnoses in women from 2000 to 2016. This study suggests that while the number of people being diagnosed with autism is increasing, many are still unrecognised by healthcare services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To explore differences in the use of lipid lowering therapy and/or achievement of lipid guideline targets in patients with and without prior depression and influence of sex in very high-risk coronary patients. Methods & findings: A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using individual-level linked electronic health record data in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (2012–2017) in Wales. The cohort comprised of 13,781 patients (27.4% female), with 26.1% having prior depression. Lipid levels were recorded in 10,050 patients of whom 25% had depression. History of depression was independently associated with not having lipids checked (OR 0.79 95%CI 0.72–0.87 p<0.001). Patients with prior depression were less likely to achieve targets for low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C <1.8mmol/l), non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C <2.6mmol/l) and triglycerides (<2.3mmol/l) than patients without depression (OR 0.86 95%CI 0.78–0.96 p = 0.007, OR 0.80 95%CI 0.69–0.92 p = 0.003 & OR 0.69 95CI% 0.61–0.79 p<0.001 respectively). Females were less likely to achieve targets for LDL-C and non-HDL-C than males (OR 0.55 95%CI 0.50–0.61 p<0.001 & OR 0.63 95%CI 0.55–0.73 p<0.001). There was an additive effect of depression and sex; females with depression were not only least likely to be tested (OR 0.74 95%CI 0.65–0.84 p<0.001) but also (where levels were known) less likely to achieve LDL-C (OR 0.47 95%CI 0.41–0.55 p<0.001) and non-HDL-C targets (OR 0.50 95%CI 0.41–0.60 p<0.001). It was not possible to look at the influence of medication adherence on achievement of lipid targets due to limitations of the use of anonymised routinely-held clinical care data. Conclusion: Patients with prior depression were less likely to have their lipids monitored and achieve guideline targets within 1-year. Females with depression are the least likely to be tested and achieve lipid targets, suggesting not only a greater risk of future events, but also an opportunity to improve care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Mental disorder (MD) and substance use (SUD) are associated with poorer than average health and greater mortality. We analysed routine primary care (WLGP) and inpatient admission (PEDW) data to estimate incidence of co-occurring (CC) MD and SUD, and to estimate all-cause mortality and survival with CC, in children and young people in Wales, UK. Methods: A retrospective population-based electronic cohort study using data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Participants were 958,603 individuals aged 11– 25 between 2008 and 2017. We estimated first ever incidence of CC, plotted Kaplan–Meier survival curves and carried out Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for risk of death by condition group (CC; MD or SUD only; NC). Results: Higher incidence of CC in WLGP and PEDW was associated with male sex, older age and greater deprivation. Male to female IRRs (95% CI) were 1.18 (1.12– 1.24) in WLGP and 1.17 (1.10– 1.24) in PEDW, oldest to youngest IRRs were 24.80 (21.20– 29.40) in WLGP and 4.50 (4.08– 4.98) in PEDW and most to least deprived IRRs were 3.28 (3.00– 3.58) in WLGP and 2.59 (2.36– 2.84) in PEDW. Incidence in WLGP significantly decreased between 2008 and 2017 (IRR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78– 0.99); the greatest reduction occurred in the most deprived quintile (IRR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54– 0.82). Incidence of hospital admissions remained stable (IRR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.84– 1.08). Risk of death was significantly higher for CC compared with NC (HR = 8.7, 95% CI 7.5– 10.0). Conclusion: Male sex, older age and greater deprivation were associated with higher CC incidence, although the gap between WIMD quintiles has decreased. CC was associated with greater risk of death. Mental health and substance misuse services should be provided in ways that remove barriers, and are acceptable and accessible to all, particularly those at greatest risk, or who are less likely to engage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are negatively associated with a range of child health outcomes. In this study, we explored associations between five individual ACEs and child mental health diagnoses or symptoms. ACEs included living with someone who had an alcohol-related problem, common mental health disorder or serious mental illness, or experienced victimisation or death of a household member.Methods: We analysed data from a population-level electronic cohort of children in Wales, UK, (N = 191,035) between the years of 1998 and 2012. We used Cox regression with discrete time-varying exposure variables to model time to child mental health diagnosis during the first 15 years of life. Child mental health diagnoses include five categories: (i) externalising symptoms (anti-social behaviour), (ii) internalising symptoms (stress, anxiety, depression), (iii) developmental delay (e.g. learning disability), (iv) other (e.g. eating disorder, personality disorders), and (v) any mental health diagnosis, which was created by combining externalising symptoms, internalising symptoms and other. Our analyses were adjusted for social deprivation and perinatal risk factors.Results: There were strong univariable associations between the five individual ACEs, sociodemographic and perinatal factors (e.g. gestational weight at birth) and an increased risk of child mental health diagnoses. After adjusting for sociodemographic and perinatal aspects, there was a remaining conditional increased risk of any child mental health diagnosis, associated with victimisation (conditional hazard ratio (cHR) 1.90, CI 95% 1.34-2.69), and living with an adult with a common mental health diagnosis (cHR 1.63, CI 95% 1.52-1.75). Coefficients of product terms between ACEs and deprivation were not statistically significant.Conclusion: The increased risk of child mental health diagnosis associated with victimisation, or exposure to common mental health diagnoses, and alcohol problems in the household supports the need for policy measures and intervention strategies for children and their families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The risk of dying by alcohol-specific causes in people with epilepsy has seldom been reported from population-based studies. We aimed to estimate the relative risk of alcohol-specific mortality in people with epilepsy, and the extent to which problematic alcohol use was previously identified in the patients' medical records. Method: We delineated cohort studies in two population-based datasets, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) in England (January 01, 2001–December 31, 2014) and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales (January 01, 2001–December 31, 2014), linked to hospitalization and mortality records. People with epilepsy were matched to up to 20 persons without epilepsy on gender, age (±2 years) and registered general practice. We identified alcohol-specific death from Office for National Statistics (ONS) records using specified ICD-10 codes. We further identified prescriptions, interventions and hospitalisations related to alcohol use. Results: In the CPRD GOLD, we identified 9,871 individuals in the incident epilepsy cohort and 185,800 in the comparison cohort and, in the SAIL Databank, these numbers were 5,569 and 110,021, respectively. We identified a five-fold increased risk of alcohol-specific mortality in people with epilepsy vs. those without the condition in our pooled estimate across the two datasets (deprivation-adjusted HR 4.85, 95%CI 3.46–6.79). Conclusions: People with epilepsy are at increased risk of dying by an alcohol-specific cause than those without the disorder. It is plausible that serious alcohol misuse could either contribute to the development of epilepsy or it could commence subsequent to epilepsy being diagnosed. Regardless of the direction of the association, it is important that the risk of dying as a consequence of alcohol misuse is accurately quantified in people affected by epilepsy. Systematically-applied, sensitive assessment of alcohol consumption by healthcare professionals, at opportunistic, clinical contacts, with rapid access to quality treatment services, should be mandatory and play a key role in reduction of health harms and mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Longitudinal studies of patterns of healthcare contacts in those who die by suicide to identify those at risk are scarce.Aims: To examine type and timing of healthcare contacts in those who die by suicide.Method: A population-based electronic case-control study of all who died by suicide in Wales, 2001-2017, linking individuals' electronic healthcare records from general practices, emergency departments and hospitals. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios, adjusted for deprivation. We performed a retrospective continuous longitudinal analysis comparing cases' and controls' contacts with health services.Results: We matched 5130 cases with 25 650 controls (5 per case). A representative cohort of 1721 cases (8605 controls) were eligible for the fully linked analysis. In the week before their death, 31.4% of cases and 15.6% of controls contacted health services. The last point of contact was most commonly associated with mental health and most often occurred in general practices. In the month before their death, 16.6 and 13.0% of cases had an emergency department contact and a hospital admission respectively, compared with 5.5 and 4.2% of controls. At any week in the year before their death, cases were more likely to contact healthcare services than controls. Self-harm, mental health and substance misuse contacts were strongly linked with suicide risk, more so when they occurred in emergency departments or as emergency admissions.Conclusions: Help-seeking occurs in those at risk of suicide and escalates in the weeks before their death. There is an opportunity to identify and intervene through these contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Opioids, such as heroin, kill more people worldwide by overdose than any other type of drug, and death rates associated with opioid poisoning in the UK are at record levels (World Drug Report 2018 [Internet]. [cited 2019 Nov 19]. Available from: http://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/; Deaths related to drug poisoning in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics [Internet]. [cited 2019 Nov 19]. Available from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2018registrations). Naloxone is an opioid antagonist which can be distributed in 'kits' for administration by witnesses in an overdose emergency. This intervention is known as take-home naloxone (THN). We know that THN can save lives on an individual level, but there is currently limited evidence about the effectiveness of THN distribution on an aggregate level, in specialist drug service settings or in emergency service settings. Notably, we do not know whether THN kits reduce deaths from opioid overdose in at-risk populations, if there are unforeseen harms associated with THN distribution or if THN is cost-effective. In order to address this research gap, we aim to determine the feasibility of a fully powered cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of THN distribution in emergency settings. Methods: We will carry out a feasibility study for a RCT of THN distributed in emergency settings at four sites, clustered by Emergency Department (ED) and catchment area within its associated ambulance service. THN is a peer-administered intervention. At two intervention sites, emergency ambulance paramedics and ED clinical staff will distribute THN to adult patients who are at risk of opioid overdose. At two control sites, practice will carry on as usual. We will develop a method of identifying a population to include in an evaluation, comprising people at risk of fatal opioid overdose, who may potentially receive naloxone included in a THN kit. We will gather anonymised outcomes up to 1 year following a 12-month 'live' trial period for patients at risk of death from opioid poisoning. We expect approximately 100 patients at risk of opioid overdose to be in contact with each service during the 1-year recruitment period. Our outcomes will include deaths, emergency admissions, intensive care admissions, and ED attendances. We will collect numbers of eligible patients attended by participating in emergency ambulance paramedics and attending ED, THN kits issued, and NHS resource usage. We will determine whether to progress to a fully powered trial based on pre-specified progression criteria: sign-up of sites (n = 4), staff trained (≥ 50%), eligible participants identified (≥ 50%), THN provided to eligible participants (≥ 50%), people at risk of death from opioid overdose identified for inclusion in follow-up (≥ 75% of overdose deaths), outcomes retrieved for high-risk individuals (≥ 75%), and adverse event rate (< 10% difference between study arms). Discussion: This feasibility study is the first randomised, methodologically robust investigation of THN distribution in emergency settings. The study addresses an evidence gap related to the effectiveness of THN distribution in emergency settings. As this study is being carried out in emergency settings, obtaining informed consent on behalf of participants is not feasible. We therefore employ novel methods for identifying participants and capturing follow-up data, with effectiveness dependent on the quality of the available routine data. Trial registration: ISRCTN13232859 (Registered 16/02/2018) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Linking survey data to administrative records requires informed participant consent. When linkage includes child data, this includes parental and child consent. Little is known of the potential impacts of introducing consent to data linkage on response rates and biases in school-based surveys. This paper assessed: i) the impact on overall parental consent rates and sample representativeness when consent for linkage was introduced and ii) the quality of identifiable data provided to facilitate linkage.Methods: Including an option for data linkage was piloted in a sub-sample of schools participating in the Student Health and Wellbeing survey, a national survey of adolescents in Wales, UK. Schools agreeing to participate were randomized 2:1 to receive versus not receive the data linkage question. Survey responses from consenting students were anonymised and linked to routine datasets (e.g. general practice, inpatient, and outpatient records). Parental withdrawal rates were calculated for linkage and non-linkage samples. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to compare characteristics between: i) consenters and non-consenters; ii) successfully and unsuccessfully linked students; and iii) the linked cohort and peers within the general population, with additional comparisons of mental health diagnoses and health service contacts.Results: The sub-sample comprised 64 eligible schools (out of 193), with data linkage piloted in 39. Parental consent was comparable across linkage and non-linkage schools. 48.7% (n = 9232) of students consented to data linkage. Modelling showed these students were more likely to be younger, more affluent, have higher positive mental wellbeing, and report fewer risk-related behaviours compared to non-consenters. Overall, 69.8% of consenting students were successfully linked, with higher rates of success among younger students. The linked cohort had lower rates of mental health diagnoses (5.8% vs. 8.8%) and specialist contacts (5.2% vs. 7.7%) than general population peers.Conclusions: Introducing data linkage within a national survey of adolescents had no impact on study completion rates. However, students consenting to data linkage, and those successfully linked, differed from non-consenting students on several key characteristics, raising questions concerning the representativeness of linked cohorts. Further research is needed to better understand decision-making processes around providing consent to data linkage in adolescent populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study used individual-level linked data across general practice, emergency departments (EDs), outpatients and hospital admissions to examine contacts across settings and time by sex for self-harm in individuals aged 10-24 years old in Wales, UK.Methods: A whole population-based e-cohort study of routinely collected healthcare data was conducted. Rates of self-harm across settings over time by sex were examined. Individuals were categorised based on the service(s) to which they presented.Results: A total of 937 697 individuals aged 10-24 years contributed 5 369 794 person years of data from 1 January 2003 to 30 September 2015. Self-harm incidence was highest in primary care but remained stable over time (incident rate ratio (IRR)=1.0; 95% CI 0.9 to 1.1). Incidence of ED attendance increased over time (IRR=1.3; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.5) as did hospital admissions (IRR=1.4; 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6). Incidence in the 15-19 years age group was the highest across all settings. The largest increases were seen in the youngest age group. There were increases in ED attendances for both sexes; however, females are more likely than males to be admitted following this. This was most evident in individuals 10-15 years old, where 76% of females were admitted compared with just 49% of males. The majority of associated outpatient appointments were under a mental health specialty.Conclusions: This is the first study to compare self-harm in people aged 10-24 years across primary care, EDs and hospital settings in the UK. The high rates of self-harm in primary care and for young men in EDs highlight these as important settings for intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diagnosing eating disorders can be difficult and few people with the disorder receive specialist services despite the associated high morbidity and mortality. Aims: To examine the burden of eating disorders in the population in terms of incidence, comorbidities and survival. Method: We used linked electronic health records from general practitioner and hospital admissions in Wales, UK within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank to investigate the incidence of new eating disorder diagnoses. We examined the frequency of comorbid diagnoses and prescribed medications in cases and controls in the 2 years before and 3 years after diagnosis, and performed a survival analysis. Results: A total of 15 558 people were diagnosed with eating disorders between 1990 and 2017. The incidence peaked at 24 per 100 000 people in 2003/04. People with eating disorders showed higher levels of other mental disorders (odds ratio 4.32, 95% CI 4.01–4.66) and external causes of morbidity and mortality (odds ratio 2.92, 95% CI 2.44–3.50). They had greater prescription of central nervous system drugs (odds ratio 3.15, 95% CI 2.97–3.33), gastrointestinal drugs (odds ratio 2.61, 95% CI 2.45–2.79) and dietetic drugs (odds ratio 2.42, 95% CI 2.24–2.62) before diagnosis. These excess diagnoses and prescriptions remained 3 years after diagnosis. Mortality was raised compared with controls for some eating disorders, particularly in females with anorexia nervosa. Conclusions: Incidence of diagnosed eating disorders is relatively low in the population but there is a major longer term burden in morbidity and mortality to the individual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: There is a known shortfall in hepatology service resources across England and Wales. Aim: To investigate early and late mortality following unscheduled admissions for severe liver disease, overall and by cause of death, and to determine how mortality is related to admissions to transplant centres, transplant surgery, hospital size, consultant specialty, patient socio‐demographics, seasonal and geographical factors. Methods: Cohorts of people with a first unscheduled admission for severe liver disease across England and Wales from 2004, based on record linkage of national inpatient and mortality data. Findings: Mortality for alcoholic liver disease and hepatic failure was 23.4% and 35.4% respectively at 60 days and 61.8% and 57.1% at 5 years. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were extremely high at 60 days (184 and 117 respectively) and remained highly increased at 5 years (16.7 and 6.3). Mortality at 5 years was most elevated from liver disease, viral hepatitis and varices. The 60‐day mortality was significantly lower for patients seen by consultant hepatologists and gastroenterologists. Both early and late mortality were significantly reduced for patients admitted to transplant centres or larger hospitals, who received a liver transplant, or were resident in London. Early mortality was significantly higher for patients admitted in winter and autumn, while elevated mortality among the most vs least deprived quintile increased with longer follow‐up. Conclusions: The study shows a very poor prognosis for people with unscheduled hospitalisation for severe liver disease. The findings suggest that access to specialist expertise and services improves survival, both in the short and long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients' smoking status is routinely collected by General Practitioners (GP) in UK primary health care. There is an abundance of Read codes pertaining to smoking, including those relating to smoking cessation therapy, prescription, and administration codes, in addition to the more regularly employed smoking status codes. Large databases of primary care data are increasingly used for epidemiological analysis; smoking status is an important covariate in many such analyses. However, the variable definition is rarely documented in the literature.Methods: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank is a repository for a national collection of person-based anonymised health and socio-economic administrative data in Wales, UK. An exploration of GP smoking status data from the SAIL databank was carried out to explore the range of codes available and how they could be used in the identification of different categories of smokers, ex-smokers and never smokers. An algorithm was developed which addresses inconsistencies and changes in smoking status recording across the life course and compared with recorded smoking status as recorded in the Welsh Health Survey (WHS), 2013 and 2014 at individual level. However, the WHS could not be regarded as a "gold standard" for validation.Results: There were 6836 individuals in the linked dataset. Missing data were more common in GP records (6%) than in WHS (1.1%). Our algorithm assigns ex-smoker status to 34% of never-smokers, and detects 30% more smokers than are declared in the WHS data. When distinguishing between current smokers and non-smokers, the similarity between the WHS and GP data using the nearest date of comparison was κ = 0.78. When temporal conflicts had been accounted for, the similarity was κ = 0.64, showing the importance of addressing conflicts.Conclusions: We present an algorithm for the identification of a patient's smoking status using GP self-reported data. We have included sufficient details to allow others to replicate this work, thus increasing the standards of documentation within this research area and assessment of smoking status in routine data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was a highly publicised cluster of at least ten suicides in South Wales, United Kingdom, in 2007–2008. We carried out a qualitative descriptive study using cross-case thematic analysis to investigate the experiences and narratives of eight individuals who lived in the area where the cluster occurred and who survived an episode of near-fatal self-harm at the time of the cluster. Interviews were conducted from 01.01.2015 to 31.12.2015. All interviewees denied that the other deaths in the area had affected their own suicidal behaviour. However, in other sections of the interviews they spoke about the cluster contributing to difficulties they were experiencing at the time, including damage to social relationships, feelings of loss and being out of control. When asked about support, the interviewees emphasized the importance of counselling, which they would have found helpful but in most cases did not receive, even in the case of close contacts of individuals who had died. The findings suggest that effective prevention messaging must be subtle, since those affected may not be explicitly aware of or acknowledge the imitative aspects of their behaviour. This could be related to stigma attached to suicidal behaviour in a cluster context. Lessons for prevention include changing the message from asking if people 'have been affected by' the suicide deaths to emphasising the preventability of suicide, and directly reaching out to individuals rather than relying on people to come forward. • Participants' state the cluster did not influence their behaviour. • Evidence of cluster-related stressors, normalisation and social integration effects. • Implications for prevention; people may be less likely to seek help until crisis. • Proactive interventions and carefully worded messaging/signposting to help needed. • Importance of support in hospital following self-harm was also emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To establish which major disorders are susceptible to increased mortality following acute admissions on weekends, compared with week days, and how this may be explained.Methods: Cohorts based on national administrative inpatient and mortality data for 14,168,443 hospitalised patients in England and 913,068 in Wales who were admitted for 66 disorders that were associated with at least 200 deaths within 30 days of acute admission. The main outcome measure was the weekend mortality effect (defined as the conventional mortality odds ratio for admissions on weekends compared with week days).Results: There were large, statistically significant weekend mortality effects (> 20%) in England for 22 of the 66 conditions and in both countries for 14. These 14 were 4 of 13 cancers (oesophageal, colorectal, lung and lymphomas); 4 of 13 circulatory disorders (angina, abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral vascular disease and arterial embolism & thrombosis); one of 8 respiratory disorders (pleural effusion); 2 of 12 gastrointestinal disorders (alcoholic and other liver disease); 2 of 3 ageing-related disorders (Alzheimer's disease and dementia); none of 7 trauma conditions; and one of 10 other disorders (acute renal failure). Across the disorders, 64% of the variation in weekend mortality effects in England and Wales was explained by reductions in admission rates at weekends and the medical disease category.Conclusions: The effect of weekend admission on 30 day mortality is seen mainly for cancers, some circulatory disorders, liver disease and a few other conditions which are mainly ageing- or cancer-related. Most of the increased mortality is associated with reduced admission rates at weekends and the medical disease category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008, the UK entered a period of economic recession followed by sustained austerity measures. We investigate changes in inequalities by area deprivation and urbanicity in incidence of severe mental illness (SMI, including schizophrenia-related disorders and bipolar disorder) between 2000 and 2017. We analysed 4.4 million individuals from primary and secondary care routinely collected datasets (2000–2017) in Wales and estimated the incidence of SMI by deprivation and urbanicity measured by the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) and urban/rural indicator respectively. Using linear modelling and joinpoint regression approaches, we examined time trends of the incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) of SMI by the WIMD and urban/rural indicator adjusted for available confounders. We observed a turning point of time trends of incidence of SMI at 2008/2009 where slope changes of time trends were significantly increasing. IRRs by deprivation/urbanicity remained stable or significantly decreased over the study period except for those with bipolar disorder sourced from secondary care settings, with increasing trend of IRRs (increase in IRR by deprivation after 2010: 1.6 % per year, 95 % CI: 1.0 %–2.2 %; increase in IRR by urbanicity 1.0 % per year, 95 % CI: 0.6 %–1.3 %). There was an association between recession/austerity and an increase in the incidence of SMI over time. There were variations in the effects of deprivation/urbanicity on incidence of SMI associated with short- and long-term socioeconomic change. These findings may support targeted interventions and social protection systems to reduce incidence of SMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parental difficulties, including mental ill health, substance misuse, domestic violence and learning disability have been associated with children entering out-of-home care. There is also evidence that these issues may co-occur within families. Understanding how the co-occurrence of these difficulties is associated with care entry is complex because they may co-occur in the same or different household members and have different impacts on the likelihood of care entry when they occur in mothers, fathers or in single parent households. Administrative data from local authority children's services in Wales were linked with demographic data to identify households in which children lived prior to entering care. Linkage to birth data identified biological mothers. Linkage with primary care, emergency department, hospital admissions and substance misuse services data enabled indicators of substance misuse, mental health, assaults in the home, learning disability and neurodivergence in the adults in those households to be identified. A series of multilevel binary logistic regression models were used to explore the odds of a household having one or more children entering care if risk factors were present. These considered the effects of individual risks, and cumulative risk both in individual adults in the household, and across the whole household. The effects of the number of adults, having adults with no risks and the differential impacts of risks in biological mothers, other women or men were also explored. Additional models explored these factors in single adult households. Cumulative risks increased the likelihood of care entry, however this effect disappeared when individual risks were controlled for. The presence of an individual with no risks in the household acted as a protective factor. Overall, the impact of the risks on the odds of care entry was substantially greater if the risks were present in the biological mother than if they occurred in other adults (men or women) in the household. In single adult households risk factors had a much greater impact when they occurred in households headed by women as opposed to men. Substantial differences in the effects of risk factors in female and male adults are apparent and further research is needed to understand why this is occurring to ensure that parents are treated equally in terms of support and statutory intervention regardless of their sex. 1 1 Throughout this paper we refer to the "sex" of the parents /adults in households, as opposed to their "gender." This is because in the analysis we carried out the sex of these individuals was determined by their GP records. We have chosen to use the term "sex," rather than "gender," as we believe this data is more likely to reflect their biological sex, rather the gender that the individuals identify as. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are growing concerns about the mental health and risk of suicide amongst university students.Aim: To investigate trends in the incidence and characteristics of university student suicides in England & Wales for the academic years 2000/01 to 2016/17.Method: Record linkage between Office for National Statistics mortality data and Higher Education Statistics Agency data for England and Wales. Poisson regression and chi-squared tests were used to investigate secular trends and the characteristics of students dying by suicide.Results: There were 1330 student suicide deaths from 2000/01 to 2016/17; the annual incidence in 2015/16-2016/17 was 4.7 per 100,000 students. There was evidence of a rise in incidence since 2009/10 (incidence rate ratio per year 1.04 ((95%CI 1.00-1.07) p = 0.029). Incidence in 2012/13 to 2016/17 was less than half the rate in the general population of a similar age. Incidence was higher in males than females and amongst undergraduates vs. postgraduates. There was some evidence of a reduced risk amongst black compared to white students (RR 0.53 (95%CI 0.32-0.88). Incidence was highest in January and lowest during the summer holidays (July-September).Limitations: There was no age/sex or sociodemographic breakdown of the overall student population for 2000/01 to 2011/12.Conclusion: Rates of suicide are considerably lower amongst students than the general population. In keeping with trends in young people in the wider population, the incidence of student suicide has increased since 2009/10. To inform prevention, research is needed to understand reasons for the rise in suicide in young people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status., Methods: Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research., Findings: Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority., Interpretation: There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention., Funding: Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests DK reports grants and personal fees from the Wellcome Trust, the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention, and the UK Department of Health and Social Care. DK is a steering group member of the Migration Health and Development Research Initiative and the UK National Suicide Prevention Alliance; she receives no fees for this work. NK reports grants and personal fees from the UK Department of Health and Social Care, the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and the Healthcare Quality and Improvement Partnership, outside the submitted work; and work with NHS England on national quality improvement initiatives for suicide and self-harm. He sits on the Department of Health and Social Care's (England) National Suicide Prevention Strategy Advisory Group. He has chaired and been the Topic Advisor for NICE guideline committees for self-harm and depression. LR is an ONS employee. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Healthcare and support workers play a pivotal role in delivering quality services and support to people seeking sanctuary who have experienced poor physical and mental health linked to previous trauma, relocation and loss of freedoms. However, they often encounter various challenges in their daily work, ranging from communication barriers to resource constraints. This qualitative study seeks to delve into the perspectives of healthcare and support workers' experience of workarounds, employed to overcome barriers to providing care., Aim: This study aims to describe healthcare providers', practitioners' and health and third sector support workers' views on barriers and workarounds to providing care for people seeking sanctuary, to inform policy and practice., Design: A qualitative study was carried out using semi-structured telephone interviews., Setting: This study focused on primary, secondary, community and specialist National Health Service (NHS) support services for people seeking sanctuary in Wales, United Kingdom (2018)., Method: We interviewed 32 healthcare providers, practitioners and support workers employed by primary care and third sector organisations. Our approach involved obtaining verbal informed consent before digitally recording and transcribing all interviews. To analyse the data, we used the Four Levels of Change for Improving Quality model as a guiding framework for interpretation., Results: Our study findings reveal that certain respondents expressed challenges in meeting the needs of people seeking sanctuary; notably, their experience of delivering care differed by care settings. Specifically, those involved in providing specialist NHS care believed that there was room for improvement. Mainstream primary, secondary and community health practitioners faced limitations due to resource constraints and lacked tailored information to address the unique circumstances and needs of sanctuary seekers. To address these gaps, workarounds emerged at both individual and local levels (team/departmental and organisational level). These included establishing informal communication channels between providers, fostering cross service collaboration to fill gaps and adapting existing services to enhance accessibility., Conclusion: Understanding healthcare providers', practitioners' and support workers' perspectives offers invaluable insights into ways to enhance healthcare delivery to sanctuary seekers. Acknowledging challenges and harnessing innovative workarounds can foster a more effective and compassionate service for this vulnerable population., Patient or Public Contribution: The HEAR study actively involved public contributors in the design, delivery and dissemination of the research. Two public contributors (S. M. and G. R.) who had personal experience of seeking asylum served as study co-applicants. They played pivotal roles in shaping the research by participating in its development and securing funding. Alongside other co-applicants, S. M. and G. R. formed the Research Management Group, overseeing study delivery. Their contributions extended to strategic decision-making and specific feedback at critical junctures, including participant recruitment, data collection, analysis and reporting. Additionally, S. M. and G. R. were instrumental in recruiting and supporting a team of peer researchers, enhancing respondent participation among people seeking sanctuary. To facilitate effective public involvement, we provided named contacts for support (A. K. and R. F.), research training, honoraria, reimbursement of expenses and accessible information in line with best practice., (© 2024 The Authors. Health Expectations published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Aims : To compare characteristics of individuals who self-harmed during a suicide cluster in South Wales (∼10 deaths between December 2007 and March 2008) with others who self-harmed prior to the cluster and to evaluate 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Method : Using records from the hospital serving the catchment area of the suicide cluster, enhanced by national routinely collected linked data, we created the following two groups: individuals who self-harmed (a) during the suicide cluster and (b) 1 year before. We compared individuals' characteristics and performed logistic regression to compute odds ratios of 10-year self-harm and mortality outcomes. Results : Individuals who self-harmed during the cluster were less likely to be hospitalized or have a mental health history than those who self-harmed prior to the cluster. No significant group differences were found for 10-year self-harm outcomes, but all-cause mortality was higher for males. Limitations : Sample size was small, and data were lacking on psychological and social proximity to individuals who died during the suicide cluster. Conclusion : Our findings highlight the importance of long-term healthcare follow-up of those who self-harm during a suicide cluster, particularly males.

Objectives: To determine whether clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) children or children living with a CEV person in Wales were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression in primary or secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with children in the general population and to compare patterns of anxiety and depression during the pandemic (23 March 2020-31 January 2021, referred to as 2020/2021) and before the pandemic (23 March 2019-31 January 2020, referred to as 2019/2020), between CEV children and the general population., Design: Population-based cross-sectional cohort study using anonymised, linked, routinely collected health and administrative data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. CEV individuals were identified using the COVID-19 shielded patient list., Setting: Primary and secondary healthcare settings covering 80% of the population of Wales., Participants: Children aged 2-17 in Wales: CEV (3769); living with a CEV person (20 033); or neither (415 009)., Primary Outcome Measure: First record of anxiety or depression in primary or secondary healthcare in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021, identified using Read and International Classification of Diseases V.10 codes., Results: A Cox regression model adjusted for demographics and history of anxiety or depression revealed that only CEV children were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression during the pandemic compared with the general population (HR=2.27, 95% CI=1.94 to 2.66, p<0.001). Compared with the general population, the risk among CEV children was higher in 2020/2021 (risk ratio 3.04) compared with 2019/2020 (risk ratio 1.90). In 2020/2021, the period prevalence of anxiety or depression increased slightly among CEV children, but declined among the general population., Conclusions: Differences in the period prevalence of recorded anxiety or depression in healthcare between CEV children and the general population were largely driven by a reduction in presentations to healthcare services by children in the general population during the pandemic., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AJ is a member of the Welsh Government COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group and is also cochair of the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, which is a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advising the UK government. None of the other authors have any competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic., Design: A population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting trusted research environment., Setting: Registered DCW population in Wales., Participants: Records for all linked DCWs from 1 March 2020 to 30 November 2021., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Our primary outcome was confirmed COVID-19 infection; secondary outcomes included contacts for suspected COVID-19, mental health including self-harm, fit notes, respiratory infections not necessarily recorded as COVID-19, deaths involving COVID-19 and all-cause mortality., Results: Confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection rates increased over the study period to 24% by 30 November 2021. Confirmed COVID-19 varied by sex (males: 19% vs females: 24%) and age (>55 years: 19% vs <35 years: 26%) and were higher for care workers employed by local authority social services departments compared with the private sector (27% and 23%, respectively). 34% of DCWs required support for a mental health condition, with mental health-related prescribing increasing in frequency when compared with the prepandemic period. Events for self-harm increased from 0.2% to 0.4% over the study period as did the issuing of fit notes. There was no evidence to suggest a miscoding of COVID-19 infection with non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. COVID-19-related and all-cause mortality were no greater than for the general population aged 15-64 years in Wales (0.1% and 0.034%, respectively). A comparable DCW workforce in Scotland and England would result in a comparable rate of COVID-19 infection, while the younger workforce in Northern Ireland may result in a greater infection rate., Conclusions: While initial concerns about excess mortality are alleviated, the substantial pre-existing and increased mental health burden for DCWs will require investment to provide long-term support to the sector's workforce., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Although the evidence base on bullying victimization and self-harm in young people has been growing, most studies were cross-sectional, relied on self-reported non-validated measures of self-harm, and did not separate effects of in-person and cyberbullying. This study aimed to assess associations of self-harm following in-person bullying at school and cyberbullying victimization controlling for covariates., Methods: School survey data from 11 to 16 years pupils collected in 2017 from 39 Welsh secondary schools were linked to routinely collected data. Inverse probability weighting was performed to circumvent selection bias. Survival analyses for recurrent events were conducted to evaluate relative risks (adjusted hazard ratios [AHR]) of self-harm among bullying groups within 2 years following survey completion., Results: A total of 35.0% (weighted N = 6813) of pupils reported being bullied, with 18.1%, 6.4% and 10.5% being victims of in-person bullying at school only, cyberbullying only and both in-person bullying at school and cyberbullying respectively. Adjusting for covariates, effect sizes for self-harm were significant after being in-person bullied at school only (AHR = 2.2 [1.1-4.3]) and being both in-person bullied at school and cyberbullied (AHR = 2.2 [1.0-4.7]) but not being cyberbullied only (AHR = 1.2 [0.4-3.3]). Feeling lonely during recent summer holidays was also a robust predictor (AHR = 2.2 [1.2-4.0])., Conclusions: We reaffirm the role of in-person bullying victimization on self-harm. Pupils were twice as likely to self-harm following in-person bullying as their nonvictimised peers. Interventions for young people that minimize the potential impacts of bullying on self-harm should also include strategies to prevent loneliness., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Adolescence published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Foundation for Professionals in Services to Adolescents.)

Introduction: Shielding aimed to protect those predicted to be at highest risk from COVID-19 and was uniquely implemented in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinically extremely vulnerable people identified through algorithms and screening of routine National Health Service (NHS) data were individually and strongly advised to stay at home and strictly self-isolate even from others in their household. This study will generate a logic model of the intervention and evaluate the effects and costs of shielding to inform policy development and delivery during future pandemics., Methods and Analysis: This is a quasiexperimental study undertaken in Wales where records for people who were identified for shielding were already anonymously linked into integrated data systems for public health decision-making. We will: interview policy-makers to understand rationale for shielding advice to inform analysis and interpretation of results; use anonymised individual-level data to select people identified for shielding advice in March 2020 and a matched cohort, from routine electronic health data sources, to compare outcomes; survey a stratified random sample of each group about activities and quality of life at 12 months; use routine and newly collected blood data to assess immunity; interview people who were identified for shielding and their carers and NHS staff who delivered healthcare during shielding, to explore compliance and experiences; collect healthcare resource use data to calculate implementation costs and cost-consequences. Our team includes people who were shielding, who used their experience to help design and deliver this study., Ethics and Dissemination: The study has received approval from the Newcastle North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (IRAS 295050). We will disseminate results directly to UK government policy-makers, publish in peer-reviewed journals, present at scientific and policy conferences and share accessible summaries of results online and through public and patient networks., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RL, SJ, AJ and AE are members of the Welsh Government COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group. AJ is also co-chair of the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, which is a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advising the UK government. SJ is also a member of the Welsh Government Testing Technical Advisory Group and Cardiff University COVID Strategic Advisory Board., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Lay Abstract: Autism spectrum disorders (autism) are thought to be relatively common, with analyses estimating 1% in the population could meet diagnostic criteria. New services for adult diagnosis have been set up in Wales, UK; however, no studies have examined for the proportion of adults with autism in Wales. In this study, we take anonymised healthcare record data from more than 3.6 million people to produce a national estimate of recorded autism diagnoses. We found the overall prevalence rate of autism in healthcare records was 0.51%. The number of new-recorded cases of autism increased from 0.188 per 1000 person-years in 2001 to 0.644 per 1000 person-years in 2016. The estimate of 0.51% prevalence in the population is lower than suggested by population survey and cohort studies, but comparable to other administrative records. From 2001 to 2016, the number of autism services for adults has increased, and autism is more widely known in society, while concurrently in healthcare records, there was a >150% increase autism diagnoses in the years 2008-2016. An increasing number of diagnoses were among women and those aged over 35 years. This study suggests that while the number of people being diagnosed with autism is increasing, many are still unrecognised by healthcare services.

Introduction: Under section 31 of the Children Act 1989, public law care proceedings can be issued if there is concern a child is subject to, or at risk of significant harm, which can lead to removal of a child from parents. Appropriate and effective health and social support are required to potentially prevent some of the need for these proceedings. More comprehensive evidence of the health needs and vulnerabilities of parents will enable enhanced response from family courts and integrated other services., Objective: To examine health vulnerabilities of parents involved in care proceedings in the two-year period prior to involvement., Methods: Family court data provided by Cafcass Cymru were linked to population-based health records held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Linked data were available for 8,821 parents of children involved in care proceedings between 2011 and 2019. Findings were benchmarked with reference to a comparison group of parents matched on sex, age, and deprivation (n = 32,006), not subject to care proceedings. Demographic characteristics, overall health service use, and health profiles of parents were examined. Descriptive and statistical tests of independence were used., Results: Nearly half of cohort parents (47.6%) resided in the most deprived quintile. They had higher levels of healthcare use compared to the comparison group across multiple healthcare settings, with the most pronounced differences for emergency department attendances (59.3% vs 37.0%). Health conditions with the largest variation between groups were related to mental health (43.6% vs 16.0%), substance use (19.4% vs 1.6%) and injuries (41.5% vs 23.6%)., Conclusion: This study highlights the heightened socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities of parents who experience care proceedings concerning a child. Better understanding of the needs and vulnerabilities of this population may provide opportunities to improve a range of support and preventative interventions that respond to crises in the community., Competing Interests: Statement on conflicts of interest: None to declare.

Background: Poor attendance at school, whether due to absenteeism or exclusion, leads to multiple social, educational, and lifelong socioeconomic disadvantages. We aimed to measure the association between a broad range of diagnosed neurodevelopmental and mental disorders and recorded self-harm by the age of 24 years and school attendance and exclusion., Methods: In this nationwide, retrospective, electronic cohort study, we drew a cohort from the Welsh Demographic Service Dataset, which included individuals aged 7-16 years (16 years being the school leaving age in the UK) enrolled in state-funded schools in Wales in the academic years 2012/13-2015/16 (between Sept 1, 2012, and Aug 31, 2016). Using the Adolescent Mental Health Data Platform, we linked attendance and exclusion data to national demographic and primary and secondary health-care datasets. We identified all pupils with a recorded diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD and autism spectrum disorder [ASD]), learning difficulties, conduct disorder, depression, anxiety, eating disorders, alcohol or drugs misuse, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, other psychotic disorders, or recorded self-harm (our explanatory variables) before the age of 24 years. Outcomes were school absence and exclusion. Generalised estimating equations with exchangeable correlation structures using binomial distribution with the logit link function were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) for absenteeism and exclusion, adjusting for sex, age, and deprivation., Findings: School attendance, school exclusion, and health-care data were available for 414 637 pupils (201 789 [48·7%] girls and 212 848 [51·3%] boys; mean age 10·5 years [SD 3·8] on Sept 1, 2012; ethnicity data were not available). Individuals with a record of a neurodevelopmental disorder, mental disorder, or self-harm were more likely to be absent or excluded in any school year than were those without a record. Unadjusted ORs for absences ranged from 2·1 (95% CI 2·0-2·2) for those with neurodevelopmental disorders to 6·6 (4·9-8·3) for those with bipolar disorder. Adjusted ORs (aORs) for absences ranged from 2·0 (1·9-2·1) for those with neurodevelopmental disorders to 5·5 (4·2-7·2) for those with bipolar disorder. Unadjusted ORs for exclusion ranged from 1·7 (1·3-2·2) for those with eating disorders to 22·7 (20·8-24·7) for those with a record of drugs misuse. aORs for exclusion ranged from 1·8 (1·5-2·0) for those with learning difficulties to 11·0 (10·0-12·1) for those with a record of drugs misuse., Interpretation: Children and young people up to the age of 24 years with a record of a neurodevelopmental or mental disorder or self-harm before the age of 24 years were more likely to miss school than those without a record. Exclusion or persistent absence are potential indicators of current or future poor mental health that are routinely collected and could be used to target assessment and early intervention. Integrated school-based and health-care strategies to support young peoples' engagement with school life are required., Funding: The Medical Research Council, MQ Mental Health Research, and the Economic and Social Research Council., Translation: For the Welsh translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AJ is a trustee of the Samaritans. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Multimorbidity is widely recognised as the presence of two or more concurrent long-term conditions, yet remains a poorly understood global issue despite increasing in prevalence.We have created the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC) to provide an accessible research ready data asset to further the understanding of multimorbidity. Our objectives are to create a platform to support research which would help to understand prevalence, trajectories and determinants in multimorbidity, characterise clusters that lead to highest burden on individuals and healthcare services, and evaluate and provide new multimorbidity phenotypes and algorithms to the National Health Service and research communities to support prevention, healthcare planning and the management of individuals with multimorbidity., Methods and Analysis: The WMC has been created and derived from multisourced demographic, administrative and electronic health record data relating to the Welsh population in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The WMC consists of 2.9 million people alive and living in Wales on the 1 January 2000 with follow-up until 31 December 2019, Welsh residency break or death. Published comorbidity indices and phenotype code lists will be used to measure and conceptualise multimorbidity.Study outcomes will include: (1) a description of multimorbidity using published data phenotype algorithms/ontologies, (2) investigation of the associations between baseline demographic factors and multimorbidity, (3) identification of temporal trajectories of clusters of conditions and multimorbidity and (4) investigation of multimorbidity clusters with poor outcomes such as mortality and high healthcare service utilisation., Ethics and Dissemination: The SAIL Databank independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study (SAIL Project: 0911). Study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: The emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to prevent serious health outcomes. We aim to provide an accessible research platform to determine demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for infection, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, to measure the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation and long-term health, and to enable the evaluation of natural experiments of policy interventions., Methods and Analysis: Two privacy-protecting population-level cohorts have been created and derived from multisourced demographic and healthcare data. The C20 cohort consists of 3.2 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2020 with follow-up until 31 May 2020. The complete cohort dataset will be updated monthly with some individual datasets available daily. The C16 cohort consists of 3 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2016 with follow-up to 31 December 2019. C16 is designed as a counterfactual cohort to provide contextual comparative population data on disease, health service utilisation and mortality. Study outcomes will: (a) characterise the epidemiology of COVID-19, (b) assess socioeconomic and demographic influences on infection and outcomes, (c) measure the impact of COVID-19 on short -term and longer-term population outcomes and (d) undertake studies on the transmission and spatial spread of infection., Ethics and Dissemination: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study. The study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Electronic health record (EHR) data are available for research in all UK nations and cross-nation comparative studies are becoming more common. All UK inpatient EHRs are based around episodes, but episode-based analysis may not sufficiently capture the patient journey. There is no UK-wide method for aggregating episodes into standardised person-based spells. This study identifies two data quality issues affecting the creation of person-based spells, and tests four methods to create these spells, for implementation across all UK nations., Methods: Welsh inpatient EHRs from 2013 to 2017 were analysed. Phase one described two data quality issues; transfers of care and episode sequencing. Phase two compared four methods for creating person spells. Measures were mean length of stay (LOS, expressed in days) and number of episodes per person spell for each method., Results: 3.5% of total admissions were transfers-in and 3.1% of total discharges were transfers-out. 68.7% of total transfers-in and 48.7% of psychiatric transfers-in had an identifiable preceding transfer-out, and 78.2% of total transfers-out and 59.0% of psychiatric transfers-out had an identifiable subsequent transfer-in. 0.2% of total episodes and 4.0% of psychiatric episodes overlapped with at least one other episode of any specialty. Method one (no evidence of transfer required; overlapping episodes grouped together) resulted in the longest mean LOS (4.0 days for all specialties; 48.5 days for psychiatric specialties) and the fewest single episode person spells (82.4% of all specialties; 69.7% for psychiatric specialties). Method three (evidence of transfer required; overlapping episodes separated) resulted in the shortest mean LOS (3.7 days for all specialties; 45.8 days for psychiatric specialties) and the most single episode person spells; (86.9% for all specialties; 86.3% for psychiatric specialties)., Conclusions: Transfers-in appear better recorded than transfers-out. Transfer coding is incomplete, particularly for psychiatric specialties. The proportion of episodes that overlap is small but psychiatric episodes are disproportionately affected. The most successful method for grouping episodes into person spells aggregated overlapping episodes and required no evidence of transfer from admission source/method or discharge destination codes. The least successful method treated overlapping episodes as distinct and required transfer coding. The impact of all four methods was greater for psychiatric specialties.

The prevalence of schizophrenia among high risk opioid users was investigated as part of a wider investigation into opioid-related deaths. We found that over 6% of our sample of 312 decedents of opioid overdose had received a schizophrenia related diagnosis over a 36 month period prior to their death. This represents a near 8× increase on previously estimated period prevalence of schizophrenia in the general population. Though not conclusive, our findings raise questions about the extent to which opioid drugs are used by people with schizophrenia, and about how to best address high risk opioid use in people with schizophrenia., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Importance: People with epilepsy are at increased risk of mortality, but, to date, the cause-specific risks of all unnatural causes have not been reported., Objective: To estimate cause-specific unnatural mortality risks in people with epilepsy and to identify the medication types involved in poisoning deaths., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used 2 electronic primary care data sets linked to hospitalization and mortality records, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England (from January 1, 1998, to March 31, 2014) and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales (from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2014). Each person with epilepsy was matched on age (within 2 years), sex, and general practice with up to 20 individuals without epilepsy. Unnatural mortality was determined using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes V01 through Y98 in the Office for National Statistics mortality records. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated in each data set using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model, and meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models. The analysis was performed from January 5, 2016, to November 16, 2017., Exposures: People with epilepsy were identified using primary care epilepsy diagnoses and associated antiepileptic drug prescriptions., Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) for unnatural mortality and the frequency of each involved medication type estimated as a percentage of all medication poisoning deaths., Results: In total, 44 678 individuals in the CPRD and 14 051 individuals in the SAIL Databank were identified in the prevalent epilepsy cohorts, and 891 429 (CPRD) and 279 365 (SAIL) individuals were identified in the comparison cohorts. In both data sets, 51% of the epilepsy and comparison cohorts were male, and the median age at entry was 40 years (interquartile range, 25-60 years) in the CPRD cohorts and 43 years (interquartile range, 24-64 years) in the SAIL cohorts. People with epilepsy were significantly more likely to die of any unnatural cause (HR, 2.77; 95% CI, 2.43-3.16), unintentional injury or poisoning (HR, 2.97; 95% CI, 2.54-3.48) or suicide (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.51-3.07) than people in the comparison cohort. Particularly large risk increases were observed in the epilepsy cohorts for unintentional medication poisoning (HR, 4.99; 95% CI, 3.22-7.74) and intentional self-poisoning with medication (HR, 3.55; 95% CI, 1.01-12.53). Opioids (56.5% [95% CI, 43.3%-69.0%]) and psychotropic medication (32.3% [95% CI, 20.9%-45.3%)] were more commonly involved than antiepileptic drugs (9.7% [95% CI, 3.6%-19.9%]) in poisoning deaths in people with epilepsy., Conclusions and Relevance: Compared with people without epilepsy, people with epilepsy are at increased risk of unnatural death and thus should be adequately advised about unintentional injury prevention and monitored for suicidal ideation, thoughts, and behaviors. The suitability and toxicity of concomitant medication should be considered when prescribing for comorbid conditions.

Background: Mental disorders and alcohol misuse are common in families but their effects on the physical health of children are not known. We investigated the risk of emergency hospital admissions during childhood associated with living with an adult who has a mental health disorder, or who had an alcohol-related hospital admission., Methods: We did this cohort study in a total population electronic child cohort in Wales, UK, which includes all children who live in Wales or with a mother who is resident in Wales. We used Cox regression to model time to first emergency hospital admission during the first 14 years of life associated with living with an adult who has a mental health disorder, or who had an alcohol-related hospital admission. We adjusted our results for social deprivation and perinatal risk factors., Findings: We included data for 253 717 children with 1 015 614 child-years of follow-up. Living with an adult with a mental disorder was associated with an increased risk of emergency admission for all causes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·17, 95% CI 1·16-1·19), for injuries and external causes (1·14, 1·11-1·18), and childhood victimisation (1·55, 1·44-1·67). Children living with a household member who had an alcohol-related hospital admission had a significantly higher risk of emergency admissions for injuries and external causes (aHR 1·13, 95% CI 1·01-1 ·26) and victimisation (1·39, 1·00-1·94), but not for all-cause emergency admissions (1·01, 0·93-1·09)., Interpretation: The increased risk of emergency admissions in children associated with mental disorders and alcohol misuse in the household supports the need for policy measures to provide support to families that are affected., Funding: Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, Alcohol Research UK, Public Health Wales., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Antipsychotics are licensed for psychosis and are also prescribed for behavior control. This study aims to examine characteristics and outcomes of children prescribed antipsychotics., Methods: A cohort study using general practice and hospital records linked with education records for 1,488,936 children living in Wales between 1999 and 2015. The characteristics of the children who were prescribed antipsychotics are presented using descriptive statistics and outcomes such as respiratory illness, diabetes, and injury were analyzed using multilevel logistic regression and the prior event rate ratio (PERR)., Results: Children with intellectual difficulty/autism were more likely to be prescribed antipsychotics (2.8% have been prescribed an antipsychotic [75% with autism] compared with 0.15% of children without intellectual difficulty). Those with intellectual disabilities/autism were prescribed antipsychotics at a younger age and for a longer period. Antipsychotic use was associated with a higher rate of respiratory illness for all (PERR of hospital admission: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.51-1.598] or increase in rate of 2 per 100 per year in those treated), and for those with intellectual difficulty/autism, there was a higher rate of injury and hospitalized depression. However, among those without intellectual difficulty/autism, there were lower rates of depression (PERR: 0.55 [95% CI: 0.51-0.59])., Conclusions: This work shows real-world use of antipsychotics and provides information on the rate of possible adverse events in children treated. Antipsychotics are predominantly used for those with intellectual difficulty/autism rather than those with a psychotic diagnosis. There is evidence that rates of respiratory disease, epilepsy, and diabetes are also higher postantipsychotic use for all. In those with intellectual difficulty/autism, hospital-admitted depression and injury are higher postantipsychotic use. The use of antipsychotics for behavioral management is likely to have increased cost implications to the healthcare system.

Background: Mental disorders in children and adolescents have an impact on educational attainment. Aims To examine the temporal association between attainment in education and subsequent diagnosis of depression or self-harm in the teenage years., Method: General practitioner, hospital and education records of young people in Wales between 1999 and 2014 were linked and analysed using Cox regression., Results: Linked records were available for 652 903 young people and of these 33 498 (5.1%) developed depression and 15 946 (2.4%) self-harmed after the age of 12 but before the age of 20. Young people who developed depression over the study period were more likely to have achieved key stage 1 (age 7 years) but not key stage 2 (age 11) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.84) milestones, indicating that they were declining in academic attainment during primary school. Conversely, those who self-harmed were achieving as well as those who did not self-harm in primary school, but showed a severe decline in their attainment during secondary school (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.78)., Conclusions: Long-term declining educational attainment in primary and secondary school was associated with development of depression in the teenage years. Self-harm was associated with declining educational attainment during secondary school only. Incorporating information on academic decline with other known risk factors for depression/self-harm (for example stressful life events, parental mental health problems) may improve risk profiling methods. Declaration of interest None.

PsyCymru was initially established as a proof of concept to investigate the feasibility of linking a prospectively ascertained, well-characterised (linked clinical cohort) of people with psychosis in Wales, UK with large amounts of anonymised routinely collected health record data. We are now additionally linking genetic data. PsyCymru aims to create a research platform and infrastructure for psychosis research in Wales by the establishment of two cohorts. The first is a well characterised clinically-assessed cohort of 490 individuals aged 16 and over, including genetic data. Consented individuals underwent a structured interview using a series of well-validated questionnaires and gave blood for the purpose of DNA extraction for sequencing and candidate gene identification. This data was linked to routinely collected health and social datasets with identity encryption used to protect privacy. The second is a much larger (12,097 individuals) but less well characterised population-based e-cohort of prevalent psychosis cases created using a previously validated algorithm applied to anonymised routine data. Both cohorts can be tracked prospectively and retrospectively using anonymised routinely collected electronic health and administrative data in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. This unique platform pools data together from multiple sources; linking clinical, psychological, biological, genetic and health care factors to address a wide variety of research questions. This resource will continue to expand over the coming years in size, breadth and depth of data, with continued recruitment and additional measures planned., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Introduction: Recent systematic reviews have highlighted the dearth of evidence on the effectiveness of regeneration on health and health inequalities. 'Communities First' is an area-wide regeneration scheme to improve the lives of people living in the most deprived areas in Wales (UK). This study will evaluate the impact of Communities First on residents' mental health and social cohesion., Methods and Analysis: A prospective controlled quasi-experimental study of the association between residence in Communities First regeneration areas in Caerphilly county borough and change in mental health and social cohesion. The study population is the 4226 residents aged 18-74 years who responded to the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study in 2001 (before delivery) and 2008 (after delivery of Communities First). Data on the location, type and cost of Communities First interventions will be extracted from records collected by Caerphilly county borough council. The primary outcome is the change in mental health between 2001 and 2008. Secondary outcomes are changes: in common mental disorder case status (using survey and general practice data), social cohesion and mental health inequalities. Multilevel models will examine change in mental health and social cohesion between Communities First and control areas, adjusting for individual and household level confounding factors. Further models will examine the effects of (1) different types of intervention, (2) contamination across areas, (3) length of residence in a Communities First area, and (4) population migration. We will carry out a cost-consequences analysis to summarise the outcomes generated for participants, as well as service utilisation and utility gains., Ethics and Dissemination: This study has had approval from the Information Governance Review Panel at Swansea University (Ref: 0266 CF). Findings will be disseminated through peer-review publications, international conferences, policy and practice partners in local and national government, and updates on our study website (http://medicine.cardiff.ac.uk/clinical-study/communities-first-regeneration-programme/)., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Burn injuries are associated with depression. Patients show variable incidence of postburn depression. The purpose of this study was to use anonymized, routinely collected health-related data in Wales (United Kingdom) to estimate the incidence of depression postburns. The incidence of postburn depression was estimated using routinely collected health data of complete years (1999-2007) from all general practitioner surgeries in Swansea and all National Health Service hospitals in Wales. This had been collected, double encrypted, and stored at the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank of the Health Information Research Unit for Wales at College of Medicine, Swansea University. The incidence of depression within 5 years after the burn injury was 5.9% in patients registered with general practitioner surgeries in Swansea. The incidence was 7.4% in female patients and 4.3% in male patients. The incidence of depression within 5 years after the burn was 3.2% in patients admitted to National Health Service hospitals in Wales. The incidence was 4.5% in female patients and 2.6% in male patients. The advantages of using the anonymized, routinely collected data were avoiding bias, protecting patients' confidentiality, including all patients thus minimizing attrition and greatly reduced costs. It is concluded that anonymized, routinely collected, health-related data may have value in monitoring postburn depression in Wales.

Background: Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits., Methods and Findings: The analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides). The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27(th) December 2007 to 19(th) February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related., Conclusions: There was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.

Objectives: To examine the incidence of Campylobacter and Salmonella infection in patients prescribed proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) compared with controls., Methods: Retrospective cohort study using anonymous general practitioner (GP) data. Anonymised individual-level records from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system between 1990 and 2010 in Wales were selected. Data were available from 1,913,925 individuals including 358,938 prescribed a PPI. The main outcome measures examined included incidence of Campylobacter or Salmonella infection following a prescription for PPI., Results: The rate of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections was already at 3.1-6.9 times that of non-PPI patients even before PPI prescription. The PPI group had an increased hazard rate of infection (after prescription for PPI) of 1.46 for Campylobacter and 1.2 for Salmonella, compared with baseline. However, the non-PPI patients also had an increased hazard ratio with time. In fact, the ratio of events in the PPI group compared with the non-PPI group using the prior event rate ratio was 1.17 (95% CI 0.74-1.61) for Campylobacter and 1.00 (0.5-1.5) for Salmonella., Conclusions: People who go on to be prescribed PPIs have a greater underlying risk of gastrointestinal (GI) infection beforehand and they have a higher prevalence of risk factors before PPI prescription. The rate of diagnosis of infection is increasing with time regardless of PPI use, and there is no evidence that PPI is associated with an increase in diagnosed GI infection. It is likely that factors associated with the demographic profile of the patient are the main contributors to increased rate of GI infection for patients prescribed PPIs.

Background: The relationship between the Mental Illness Needs Index (MINI) and the common mental disorders is not known., Aims: To investigate associations between the small-area MINI score and common mental disorder at individual level., Method: Mental health status was measured using the Mental Health Inventory of the Short Form 36 instrument (SF-36). Data from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs population survey were analysed in multilevel models of 10 653 individuals aged 18-74 years nested within the 2001 UK census geographies of 110 lower super output areas and 33 wards., Results: The MINI score was significantly associated with common mental disorder after adjusting for individual risk factors. This association was stronger at the smaller spatial scale of the lower super output area and for individuals who were permanently sick or disabled., Conclusions: The MINI is potentially useful for small-area needs assessment and service planning for common mental disorder in community settings.