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Nowadays, the reorganization of rural land-use space exhibits a dynamic process of expansion and shrinkage. Taking the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, this study used the InVEST model to quantitatively assess changes in rural built-up land between 1995 and 2020 and its impact on regional carbon storage. Combined with the PLUS model, further simulations were carried out to predict the heterogeneous mechanisms of shrinkage and expansion of rural habitable space under three scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that the area of rural built-up land in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area showed an overall increasing trend, with shrinkage mainly concentrated in the Wuhan-Ezhou border, Tianmen, and southern Xiantao, while expansion displayed a decentralized point distribution. The PLUS model predicts that, in the scenario of rural built-up land expansion, a significant amount of cropland is encroached upon. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of rural habitat changes on the carbon cycle. Future land management and planning should pay more attention to maintaining ecosystem services and considering the environmental effects of changes in rural built-up land layout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of an urban growth boundary (UGB) can effectively control urban sprawl and promote efficient land use, which is crucial for future urban development. However, most of existing studies overlook the reuse of existing idle and inefficient land within the city in the delineation of UGBs. With China's urban construction shifting from incremental development to stock development, this study focuses on Wuhan and presents a set of technical approaches for delineating UGBs with a stock development orientation. First, a built-up area composite index (POI&ISA) is constructed based on point of interest (POI) kernel density analysis and impervious surface index extraction to evaluate constructive levels in 2010 and 2020 and identify the urban vitality zone. Then, we combine the current land use status and control policies to divide the urban spatial development potential into five categories: urban vitality land, urban non-vitality land, other vitality land, other non-vitality land, and restricted development land. Finally, the PLUS model is applied in the analysis of the driving forces of land use change in Wuhan, simulating the UGBs in three stages of incremental development (2020–2030), incremental and stock development (2030–2040), and stock development (2040–2050). Finally, the PLUS model simulation projects the UGB areas to be 436.436 km2, 474.617 km2, and 520.396 km2 for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The predicted timespan of urban development extends up to 30 years, serving as a reliable reference for Wuhan's long-term and near-term planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use conversion is not only an indispensable component of human socio-economic activities but also an important factor that brings about the change in carbon storage of land resources. It is of great practical significance to study the carbon storage of regional land use conversion in the process of achieving the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality in China. Based on land use conversion data over five periods from 2000 to 2020 in Hubei Province, this study applied the InVEST and PLUSmodels to study the spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage of land resources resulting from land use conversion in the region. The results showed that the carbon storage of land resources in Hubei Province had a noticeable downward trend in the study period, decreasing by approximately 10.6×107 t from 2000 to 2020. Among the different land use types, woodland carbon storage accounted for the largest proportion, reaching 70.68% of the total carbon storage of land resources. In spatial terms, the highest carbon storage valueof land resources in Hubei Province was primarily concentrated in the four mountainous areas, with Wuhan metropolitan area experiencing the most serious carbon storage loss. The results predicted by the PLUS model showed that by 2030, the carbon storage value of landresources would reach a maximum of 7.32×109 t in all regions of Hubei Province under the priority state of ecological conservation, surpassing the 7.02×109 t under the priority state of natural development and 6.76×109 t under the priority state of arable land conservation. The study concludes that the total carbon storage of land resources in Hubei province showed a significant decline from 2000 to2020, mainly due to rapid urbanization leading to the rapid expansion of construction land and the massive encroachment on cultivatedland, woodland, and grassland. The 2030 land use conversion trends in Hubei Province would vary considerably between the three different projected states of natural development, priority of cultivated land conservation, and priority of ecological conservation. The carbon storage value of land resources would increase the most under the priority state of ecological protection, with forest land being themost important source of carbon storage growth for land resources in all regions of Hubei Province. The carbon storage value of land resources would decrease the most under the priority state of arable land protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Construction land development suitability (CLDS) assessment holds paramount importance in contemporary urban planning and management. Previous CLDS studies have faced challenges such as insufficient evaluation indicators, model complexity, and limited interpretability. To address these gaps, this study applies three simplistic yet mature models from the field of geological hazard assessment - Weight of Evidence (WOE), Information Value (IV), and Frequency Ratio (FR) - to evaluate the CLDS in Wuhan, China, and examine their feasibility. In parallel, a comparative analysis with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was conducted. The WOE, IV, and FR models demonstrate a gradual decrease in CLDS from the city center and the Yangtze and Han rivers towards the periphery. Conversely, the PLUS model indicates the highest suitability around the city's development boundaries, followed by the city center, with suburbs displaying lower suitability. In terms of accuracy, the PLUS model's CARS module outperforms others, particularly for micro-level urban expansion simulations. The IV and WOE models follow closely, manifesting a preference for macro-level urban planning. Additionally, this study pinpoints key drivers influencing CLDS, notably population density, distance to social service Points of Interest (POI) and proximity to road networks. The cross-validation of the WOE, IV, and FR models underscores their reliability, with their straightforward principles positioning them as valuable tools in urban development planning. This comparative study validates the application of geological hazard models in urban contexts and diversifies CLDS assessment methodologies. [Display omitted] • Transplantation and Application of Geological Hazard Models. • Comprehensive Indicator System Incorporating Multivariate Driving Factors. • Multi-Model Assessment of Construction Land Development Suitability. • Spatial Prediction of Construction Land under Quantity Constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies on future scenario simulations lacked research regarding the driving factors of changes in carbon storages within urban expansion, and the economic value accounting for changes in carbon storages. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China, and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that (1) Wuhan's urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km2 and is expected to continuously expand to 1349–1945.01 km2 by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12 × 106 t during 1980–2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15 × 106 t, 4.7 × 106 t and 4.05 × 106 t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as BS > CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dramatic land cover changes related to the accelerated urbanization process have led to habitat fragmentation and loss, resulting in biodiversity loss. Ecological Networks (ENs) have been seen as an effective solution for ecological conservation targeting habitat connectedness and ecosystem functions. The EN research is, however, generally depicted by current or historical landscape data, devoid of the potential future disturbances, which is detrimental to maintaining EN's stability and sustainability. This study combines the system dynamics (SD) model and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) to simulate land use patterns in Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA), China. The simulated land use data were incorporated into EN modeling to assess the long-term dynamics of EN in WUA, considering two scenarios related to human activities and climate change. In parallel, a landscape graphs approach is used to estimate the spatial priority of EN for conservation in landscape dynamics. The results show that: (1) The grassland decreased from 2000 to 2020 and is expected to increase from 2020 to 2035. The area of construction land would reach its peak in 2035 while cultivated land would hit a low point. (2) Analysis of EN reveals habitat fragmentation and reduced connectivity from 2000 to 2020. From 2020 to 2035, an increase in EN connectivity is expected to be observed in the SSP5–8.5 scenario, while SSP2–4.5 is the reduced scenario. (3) Southern and eastern WUA exhibit high conservation priority. The hotspots of local landscape changes are mainly the corridors that traverse through human activity areas and the edges of core habitats, which is critical to conserving. (4) The impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on EN exhibits spatial heterogeneity. This paper provides new insights to protect habitats and biodiversity to mitigate the challenge of human activities and climate change. [Display omitted] • Scenario simulation evaluates the impacts of human and climate change on ecological network. • The SSP5-8.5 indicates an increase in connectivity of the ecological networks. • The impact of urban development on the ecological network varies depending on urban structures. • More emphasis should be focused on the hotspot areas where the local landscape changes. • A scenario of increased connectivity does not imply that it should be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]