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Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with increased vulnerability towards tropical cyclones because of population growth and new coastal infrastructure developments, there is possible increased exposure to tropical cyclones due to global warming and its effect on landfall rates and intensity. The Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in Mexico so that the characterization of tropical cyclones hazards from global warming is a critical issue for strategic planning. We present an assessment of the global warming effect on tropical cyclones at the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and five different General Circulation Models-GCMs). Using such events, we provide an assessment of the future climate of tropical cyclones making landfall in the Yucatan peninsula, under the climate change scenario RCP 8.5. Results show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to tropical cyclone landfalls in the future climate, with stronger intensities and more frequent events undergoing rapid intensification, having important risk implications. The results indicate the need to consider the public policy implications for Mexico and Yucatan, to provide the mechanisms to cope with this future scenario. As the current status quo of coastal development in Yucatan increases the vulnerability to the future scenario, an awareness campaign is needed to enforce regulations and implement policies that build resilience towards climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]