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Panax notoginseng (P. notoginseng) is a traditional Chinese medicinal material with high economic and medicinal value. There is an urgent need to find new cultivation areas due to continuous cropping barriers and the effects of climate change. This study integrated the geographical environment of Yunnan with the necessary requirements for a suitable habitat for P. notoginseng and comprehensively analyzed climatic, topographical and soil factors. Furthermore, the criteria were weighted and prioritized by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the best worst method (BWM) respectively, and the overlay analysis method was used to present the suitability map in the GIS environment. Two ecological suitability assessment models were established and compared to explore the ecological suitability regionalization of P. notoginseng in Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that:(1) Among the 12 driving factors, precipitation in the hottest season is the most important, followed by average temperature in the coldest season, average temperature in the hottest season, altitude, and annual precipitation. (2) The most suitable, suitable, and unsuitable regions obtained by the AHP-GIS model accounted for respective 17.98%, 33.41%, and 48.61% of the total area of Yunnan. The values for BWM-GIS model were 13.93%, 40.25%, and 45.81%, respectively. (3) The suitable regions obtained by the two models were overlayed and concentrated in Wenshan, Qujing, Kunming, Chuxiong, Baoshan, Dali, Lijiang, Honghe and Yuxi in central Yunnan, while the unsuitable regions were distributed in Xishuangbanna, Puer, Dehong, Diqing, and southwestern Zhaotong. The sensitivity of the assessment model was analyzed, and its reliability was verified by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC). The BWM-GIS model (AUC=0.85) had higher accuracy than AHP-GIS model (AUC=0.822), and was more suitable for ecological suitability analysis of P. notoginseng. Our research results provide a theoretical basis for the rational expansion of cultivation regions of P. notoginseng and agricultural layout planning in Yunnan Province of China. [Display omitted] • BWM, AHP and GIS were integrated together to construct comprehensive evaluation model. • The ecological factors affecting the distribution of Panax notoginseng were finely analyzed. • Sensitivity analysis was used to verify the stability of the model. • Panax notoginseng showed range expansions towards high-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • MaxEnt and AHP-GIS were used to predict potential distribution. • Bio5, Bio6, Bio12, altitude, slope, sand and silt were the most key factors. • Under SSPs370, the most suitable area of Arabica coffee has increased. • Arabica coffee showed range expansions towards higher elevation and latitude. Coffee, as one of three major beverages all over the world, is featured by many functions mainly including refreshment, diuresis, invigorating stomach and stimulating appetite. However, there still lack of studies regarding the potential distribution of suitable planting regions and the important environmental factors that affect the growth and development of Arabica coffee. Based on climate, terrain and soil data, MaxEnt model and AHP-GIS technology were used to evaluate and analyze the increase and decrease range of Arabica coffee ecological suitability planting areas and most suitable areas in different periods, determine the most significant environmental factors affecting ecological suitability, and determine the distribution transformation under climate change scenario (SSPs370). Results showed that the ecological suitability of Arabica coffee plantation was mainly subjected to the climate factors, among which the maximum temperature in the warmest month, minimum temperature in the coldest month and the annual precipitation were particularly important, followed by terrain and soil factors. The model accuracies of MaxEnt and AHP-GIS were 0.925 and 0.833 respectively, indicating that the two methods were reliable in the ecological suitability evaluation of Arabica coffee. MaxEnt predicted that the most and moderately suitable area accounted for 16.26% and 22.59%, and AHP-GIS predicted that they accounted for 13.35% and 41.32% of the total area respectively. The most and moderately suitable areas were mainly concentrated in west, southeast, south and southwest Yunnan. Under the future climate scenario model, MaxEnt and AHP-GIS predicted that the area of the most suitable area would increase by 2.62 × 104–4.42 × 104 km2 and 3.53 × 104–5.44 × 104 km2 respectively from 2021 to 2100, which were mainly concentrated in west, southwest and southeast Yunnan. At the same time, the distribution of the most suitable area migrated northward generally to higher altitude and higher latitude, and the migration distance was 27.44–92.22 km. The predicted potential distribution of Arabica coffee based on MaxEnt model and AHP-GIS model could provide reference for the implementation of long-term planning and development programs so as to alleviate the effects of climate change on the distribution of Arabica coffee. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]