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Background: Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. Methods: Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. Results: We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. Conclusions: To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Zimbabwe, cases of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) are caused by the unicellular protozoan Trypanosoma brucei, sub-species T. b. rhodesiense. They are reported from the tsetse-infested area in the northern part of the country, broadly corresponding to the valley of the Zambezi River. Tsetse-transmitted trypanosomes, in particular T. congolense and T. vivax, also cause morbidity and mortality in livestock, thus generating poverty and food insecurity. Two species of tsetse fly, Glossina morsistans morsitans and G. pallidipes, are known to be present in the Zambezi Valley, although their distributional patterns and densities have not been investigated in detail. The present study tries to address this gap by providing some insight into the dynamics of trypanosomiasis in humans and livestock. Methods: Tsetse distribution and trypanosome infections were studied using traps and fixed fly rounds located at 10 km intervals along a 110 km long transect straddling the southern escarpment of the Zambezi Valley. Three km long fly rounds were conducted on 12 sites, and were repeated 11 times over a 7-month period. Additional traps were deployed and monitored in selected sites. Microscopic examination of 2092 flies for trypanosome infections was conducted. Results: Surveys confirmed the presence of G. morsitans morsitans and G. pallidipes in the Zambezi Valley floor. Moving south, the apparent density of tsetse flies appears to peak in the vicinity of the escarpment, then drops on the highlands. Only one fly was caught south of the old game fence separating protected and settled areas. A trypanosome infection rate of 6.31% was recorded in tsetse flies dissected. Only one infection of the T. brucei-type was detected. Conclusions: Tsetse fly distribution in the study area appears to be driven by ecological factors such as variation in land use and altitude-mediated climatic patterns. Although targeted control of tsetse flies have played a role in determining distribution, no major control operations have been implemented in the area for 15 years. Trypanosome infections in tsetse flies are consistent with HAT epidemiological data, which considers the situation to be generally 'low risk'. Nonetheless, underreporting is likely to conceal the true epidemiological picture, and efforts are needed to strengthen the diagnostic capacities of health facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]