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Early detection and rapid response are critical to the successful management of non-indigenous species (NIS) and rely on effective surveillance programmes. Risk-based surveillance, where surveillance targets high risk locations, is the most efficient form of NIS surveillance. However, further research is required on the impact of different levels of emphasis on risk, in sampling designs and on surveillance efficacy. This study implements a theoretical surveillance simulator to model the relative merit of different surveillance strategies with different levels of focus on NIS risk for NIS detection at one or more sites. Three potential surveillance scenarios were modelled: random, risk-based and heavy risk-based surveillance, each with three distributions of combined NIS risks of introduction and establishment: exponential, random and uniform. An example analysis using model derived NIS risk data is also provided. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses were conducted to identify variables which influence model outputs. The interaction between sampling method detection probability and changes in NIS abundance was modelled. It was found that NIS risk distribution influences the relative performance of different surveillance strategies and that risk- and heavy risk-based surveillance have lower times to detections and, generally, higher surveillance probabilities of detection compared to random surveillance at more skewed NIS risk distributions. However, there was a trade-off between short detection time and detection failure in risk-based and particularly heavy risk-based surveillance. Therefore, an over-emphasis on risk-based surveillance could provide suboptimal NIS detection. Sensitivity and elasticity analysis showed that the number of NIS seed sites, mean site visit rate and method detection probability had the largest effects on detection time, highlighting the complexity of designing surveillance programmes. In conclusion, the optimal surveillance strategy is conditional on the risk distribution and this study highlights the value of model-based simulators to guide decision-making in the design of NIS surveillance programmes.

Abstract Background Syndromic surveillance often relies on patients presenting to healthcare. Community cohorts, although more challenging to recruit, could provide additional population-wide insights, particularly with SARS-CoV-2 co-circulating with other respiratory viruses. Methods We estimated the positivity and incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and RSV, and trends in self-reported symptoms including influenza-like illness (ILI), over the 2022/23 winter season in a broadly representative UK community cohort (COVID-19 Infection Survey), using negative-binomial generalised additive models. We estimated associations between test positivity and each of the symptoms and influenza vaccination, using adjusted logistic and multinomial models. Results Swabs taken at 32,937/1,352,979 (2.4%) assessments tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 181/14,939 (1.2%) for RSV and 130/14,939 (0.9%) for influenza A/B, varying by age over time. Positivity and incidence peaks were earliest for RSV, then influenza A/B, then SARS-CoV-2, and were highest for RSV in the youngest and for SARS-CoV-2 in the oldest age groups. Many test positives did not report key symptoms: middle-aged participants were generally more symptomatic than older or younger participants, but still, only ~ 25% reported ILI-WHO and ~ 60% ILI-ECDC. Most symptomatic participants did not test positive for any of the three viruses. Influenza A/B-positivity was lower in participants reporting influenza vaccination in the current and previous seasons (odds ratio = 0.55 (95% CI 0.32, 0.95)) versus neither season. Conclusions Symptom profiles varied little by aetiology, making distinguishing SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV using symptoms challenging. Most symptoms were not explained by these viruses, indicating the importance of other pathogens in syndromic surveillance. Influenza vaccination was associated with lower rates of community influenza test positivity.

Abstract SARS-CoV-2 reinfections increased substantially after Omicron variants emerged. Large-scale community-based comparisons across multiple Omicron waves of reinfection characteristics, risk factors, and protection afforded by previous infection and vaccination, are limited. Here we studied ~45,000 reinfections from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey and quantified the risk of reinfection in multiple waves, including those driven by BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, and BQ.1/CH.1.1/XBB.1.5 variants. Reinfections were associated with lower viral load and lower percentages of self-reporting symptoms compared with first infections. Across multiple Omicron waves, estimated protection against reinfection was significantly higher in those previously infected with more recent than earlier variants, even at the same time from previous infection. Estimated protection against Omicron reinfections decreased over time from the most recent infection if this was the previous or penultimate variant (generally within the preceding year). Those 14–180 days after receiving their most recent vaccination had a lower risk of reinfection than those >180 days from their most recent vaccination. Reinfection risk was independently higher in those aged 30–45 years, and with either low or high viral load in their most recent previous infection. Overall, the risk of Omicron reinfection is high, but with lower severity than first infections; both viral evolution and waning immunity are independently associated with reinfection.

Abstract Following primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, whether boosters or breakthrough infections provide greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection is incompletely understood. Here we investigated SARS-CoV-2 antibody correlates of protection against new Omicron BA.4/5 (re-)infections and anti-spike IgG antibody trajectories after a third/booster vaccination or breakthrough infection following second vaccination in 154,149 adults ≥18 y from the United Kingdom general population. Higher antibody levels were associated with increased protection against Omicron BA.4/5 infection and breakthrough infections were associated with higher levels of protection at any given antibody level than boosters. Breakthrough infections generated similar antibody levels to boosters, and the subsequent antibody declines were slightly slower than after boosters. Together our findings show breakthrough infection provides longer-lasting protection against further infections than booster vaccinations. Our findings, considered alongside the risks of severe infection and long-term consequences of infection, have important implications for vaccine policy.

A horizon scan was used to explore possible impacts of robotics and automated systems on achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Positive effects are likely. Iterative regulatory processes and continued dialogue could help avoid environmental damages and increases in inequality.

Abstract Growing interest in food quality and traceability by regulators as well as consumers demands advances in more rapid, versatile and cost-effective analytical methods. Milk, as most food matrices, is a heterogeneous mixture composed of metabolites, lipids and proteins. One of the major challenges is to have simultaneous, quantitative detection (profiling) of this panel of biomolecules to gather valuable information for assessing food quality, traceability and safety. Here, for milk analysis, atmospheric pressure matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization employing homogenous liquid sample droplets was used on a Q-TOF mass analyzer. This method has the capability to produce multiply charged proteinaceous ions as well as highly informative profiles of singly charged lipids/metabolites. In two examples, this method is coupled with user-friendly machine-learning software. First, rapid speciation of milk (cow, goat, sheep and camel) is demonstrated with 100% classification accuracy. Second, the detection of cow milk as adulterant in goat milk is shown at concentrations as low as 5% with 92.5% sensitivity and 94.5% specificity.

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Kosovo to determine the presence and prevalence of bovine leukemia virus antibodies in cattle. A total of 5,051 serum samples from 315 villages were collected during 2016. Samples were tested using commercial indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. At least one sero-positive animal was found in 55 (17.5%) of the villages sampled, of which 23 had more than one sero-positive detected. Overall individual sero-prevalence, corrected for geographic distribution of samples, was found to be 2.26% (95% c.i. 1.62% to 3.04%). There were no statistically significant associations between serological status and herd size or age of animal, although sero-prevalence in 5-year-old cattle was higher than in the other ages. There was a statistical significant heterogeneity in sero-prevalence between different geographic zones of Kosovo (chi‐square value = 20.68 (4 d.f.); (p=0.0004). Pairwise comparisons showed that sero‐prevalence in the south was significantly higher than in the east and in the north and sero‐prevalence in the west was significantly higher than in the north. The 3.11% aggregated sero-prevalence for the two highest sero-prevalence zones, south and west, was significantly higher than the 1.57% aggregated sero-prevalence for the remaining zones, centre, east and north (Fisher exact p‐value (2‐tail) = 0.0004). The reason for higher prevalence in the south and west of Kosovo is uncertain. These results may serve to enrich the information of bovine leukemia virus distribution in the region, as well as a starting point for the future control and eradication strategy in Kosovo.

This fact sheet provides current, basic information about residential water use in Osceola County, Florida. Written by Nick Taylor, Kaitlin Robb Price, Bradley Spatz, Parker Johnson, and Pierce Jones, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, November 2021.

The United Nations' Development Goals (SDGs) have been criticized but are nonetheless seen by many as an important, if imperfect, international effort to address climate and environmental change, resource depletion and the unsustainability of contemporary life. Many of the Goals need to be implemented at the local level, yet sub-national governments have not been granted any enhanced status at the UN to facilitate this process. As a result, the role and effectiveness of local governments in localizing the SDGs is dependent on multi-level arrangements within respective national contexts. In this paper we present findings on the challenges facing local authorities in England, namely co-dependent ambivalence, partial holism and narrow practices of knowledge governance. We draw on work carried out collaboratively with local authorities and other stakeholders in Greater Manchester and Sheffield, and a UK-wide national workshop. These challenges explain the relatively low uptake and engagement with the SDGs in the context of wider political and economic concerns compared with international comparator cities. Against this background our research found that making the Goals real, relevant, relatable and relational offered a tactical route to localization for English local government.

The objectives of this cross-sectional study were to detect the presence of small ruminant lentiviral infections in Kosovo and estimate the serological prevalence for the year of 2016 . A total of 5.272 sheep and 435 goats were tested using a commercially available indirect enzymelinked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for Maedi-Visna/Caprine Arthritis-Encephalitis, giving an overall individual sero-prevalence in sheep of 34.8% (95% confidence interval 31.8% to 38.0%), and a flock prevalence of 85%, and in goats an overall individual sero-prevalence of 15.6% (95% confidence interval 7.2% to 25.6%) and flock prevalence of 35%. Sero-prevalence in sheep was higher in the South and West of Kosovo, whereas in goats was higher in the East and South. There were no statistically significant differences in sero-prevalence between sheep in different age groups

This fact sheet provides current, basic information about residential water use in Orange County. Written by Nick Taylor, Kaitlin Olander Robb Price, Bradley Spatz, Parker Johnson, and Pierce Jones, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, June 2021.

Policymakers require consistent and accessible tools to monitor the progress of an epidemic and the impact of control measures in real time. One such measure is the Estimated Dissemination Ratio (EDR), a straightforward, easily replicable, and robust measure of the trajectory of an outbreak that has been used for many years in the control of infectious disease in livestock. It is simple to calculate and explain. Its calculation and use are discussed below together with examples from the current COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. These applications illustrate that EDR can demonstrate changes in transmission rate before they may be clear from the epidemic curve. Thus, EDR can provide an early warning that an epidemic is resuming growth, allowing earlier intervention. A conceptual comparison between EDR and the commonly used reproduction number is also provided.

Background: South African schooling is caught in a vicious cycle, characterised by weak initial teacher education (ITE) and weaker-than-average learning outcomes, resulting in low teacher status and attempts to reform schooling by means of continuous professional development (CPD). Aim: The paper attempts to understand the reasons for poor performance in mathematics and to explore avenues for improvement. Setting: Teaching in South African schools. Method: Three mechanisms for improving teaching and learning are identified: ITE, CPD and the management of and support to teachers. Drawing on the research literature, the paper examines the potential of each for reforming the system. Results: Tests based on the school curriculum indicate that final-year BEd students are quite unprepared to teach mathematics in primary schools, revealing very significant shortcomings in ITE curricula. CPD, where it is well designed and rigorously evaluated, has been shown to have small effects on both teacher knowledge and learner performance. However, unless ITE is reformed at the same time, CPD becomes a never ending task of making marginal differences to the shortcomings of each successive cohort of qualified but incompetent teachers emerging from the universities. Conclusion: While the weak state of governance in the civil service remains a major obstacle to improved schooling, and while every effort must be made to raise the capacity of inservice teachers, maximal leverage in boosting teacher capacity sits firmly with the universities. While CPD has, at most a few hours a month to bridge huge gaps in teacher knowledge, ITE has at its disposal four years of full-time study with young, plastic minds.

This 6-page fact sheet discusses basics about water consumption for single-family, detached homes served by Gainesville Regional Utilities, information about the highest water users, and impacts of irrigation on water consumption. Written by Nick Taylor, Kaitlin Olander Robb Price, Bradley Spatz, Tricia Kyzar, and Pierce Jones, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, September 2020.

The Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda recognise the role of cities in achieving sustainable development. However, these agendas were agreed and signed by national governments and thus implementing them at the local level requires a process of adaptation or localisation. In this paper, we analyse five aspects that practitioners and researchers need to consider when localising them: (1) delimitation of the urban boundary; (2) integrated governance; (3) actors; (4) synergies and trade-offs and (5) indicators. These considerations are interrelated, and while not exhaustive, provide an important initial step for reflection on the challenges and opportunities of working with these global agendas at the local level. The paper draws on the inception phase of an international comparative transdisciplinary research project in seven cities on four continents: Buenos Aires (Argentina), Cape Town (South Africa), Gothenburg (Sweden), Kisumu (Kenya), Malmö (Sweden), Sheffield (UK) and Shimla (India).

Interest in understanding water use and irrigation costs has risen in recent years. This case study is a 5-page evaluation of water use and associated costs for residential landscape irrigation in Osceola County and Orange County, Florida. Homeowners in central Florida can use the results to assess their water consumption and bills in relation to similar homes in the area. Written by Nick Taylor, Tricia Kyzar, Pierce Jones, and Kaitlin O. Robb Price, and published by the UF/IFAS Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, December 2019. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ae536

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a holistic and ambitious agenda for transforming the world towards societal well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. Achieving the SDGs is, however, challenged by the performance of interconnected sectors and the complexity of their interactions which drive non-linear system responses, tipping points, and spillover effects. Systems modelling, as an integrated way of thinking about and modelling multisectoral dynamics, can help explain how feedback interactions within and among different sectors can lead to broader system transformation and progress towards the SDGs. Here, we review how system dynamics, as a prominent systems modelling approach, can inform and contribute to sustainability research and implementation, framed by the SDGs. We systematically analyse 357 system dynamics studies undertaken at the local scale where the most important SDG impacts and their initiators are often located, published between 2015 (i.e. SDGs’ inception) and 2020. We analyse the studies to illuminate strengths and limitations in four key areas: diversity of scope; interdisciplinarity of the approaches; the role of stakeholder participation; and the analysis of SDG interactions. Our review highlights opportunities for a better consideration of societal aspects of sustainable development (e.g. poverty, inequality) in modelling efforts; integrating with new interdisciplinary methods to leverage system dynamics modelling capabilities; improving genuine stakeholder engagement for credibility and impacts on the ground; and a more in-depth analysis of SDG interactions (i.e. synergies and trade-offs) with the feedback-rich structure of system dynamics models.

Background. Spontaneous regression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a rare event, although it has been described by numerous groups. The long-term fate of individuals experiencing an SR is not well described, and the underlying mechanism(s) of SR are unknown. Case Presentation: A 79-year-old Asian female with metastatic HCC taking only valsartan for hypertension had a marked reduction in tumor dimension in the primary tumor and the pulmonary metastases. Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) decreased from 17,833 μg/L to 26 μg/L. Her disease progressed after 71 months, and she died shortly after. In a review of 66 patients with SR reported in the English literature, median survival was 83 months. Median survival in 37 cases that underwent resection after SR was 108 months. Conclusions. The case and a review of the literature illustrate that SR is often durable and associated with an excellent prognosis. Understanding the underlying mechanism of SR may point to novel therapeutic strategies.

Norovirus is a major cause of viral gastroenteritis, with shellfish consumption being identified as one potential norovirus entry point into the human population. Minimising shellfish norovirus levels is therefore important for both the consumer's protection and the shellfish industry's reputation. One method used to reduce microbiological risks in shellfish is depuration; however, this process also presents additional costs to industry. Providing a mechanism to estimate norovirus levels during depuration would therefore be useful to stakeholders. This paper presents a mathematical model of the depuration process and its impact on norovirus levels found in shellfish. Two fundamental stages of norovirus depuration are considered: (i) the initial distribution of norovirus loads within a shellfish population and (ii) the way in which the initial norovirus loads evolve during depuration. Realistic assumptions are made about the dynamics of norovirus during depuration, and mathematical descriptions of both stages are derived and combined into a single model. Parameters to describe the depuration effect and norovirus load values are derived from existing norovirus data obtained from U.K. harvest sites. However, obtaining population estimates of norovirus variability is time-consuming and expensive; this model addresses the issue by assuming a 'worst case scenario' for variability of pathogens, which is independent of mean pathogen levels. The model is then used to predict minimum depuration times required to achieve norovirus levels which fall within possible risk management levels, as well as predictions of minimum depuration times for other water-borne pathogens found in shellfish. Times for Escherichia coli predicted by the model all fall within the minimum 42 hours required for class B harvest sites, whereas minimum depuration times for norovirus and FRNA+ bacteriophage are substantially longer. Thus this study provides relevant information and tools to assist norovirus risk managers with future control strategies.

Can providing learner support materials, particularly custom-designed workbooks, improve primary mathematics achievement more cost effectively than providing conventional textbooks? To contribute to this debate, this paper reports on the findings of a study conducted in 2010 by a consortium of educational researchers at JET Education Services and University of the Witwatersrand. Between January and June 2010, the consortium undertook a randomised control trial of learning support materials in Grade 6 classes in 44 primary schools serving low income communities in Gauteng province. The study shows that Grade 6 learners exhibit the same degree of learning improvement in mathematics, whether they use a conventional textbook or a workbook specifically customised to address the problems exhibited by South African learners. From a policy perspective, no warrant can be issued on the relative effectiveness of the specific workbooks considered in the study.

Initial teacher education (ITE) serves as a bridge between prospective teachers exiting the school system to enrol in teacher education faculties, on the one hand and newly qualified teachers (NQTs) who are embarking on a career in schooling on the other. The present paper describes the language and thinking skills student teachers bring to their ITE programmes and the conditions faced by NQTs when they enter schools on the other side of the chalk face. This is the context within which we ask the question: To what extent are the universities providing the teachers required by the school system? While a review of the literature, together with new evidence emerging from the Initial Teacher Education Research Project (ITERP) study, indicates that the answer to this question is by no means unequivocally positive, the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) has issued new regulations aimed at addressing the gap between current programmes and the demands of schooling. We conclude by arguing that the quality of ITE will only be improved once teacher educators move their practices closer to those of practitioners in the strong professions, which are characterised by the development of a strong theoretical knowledge base, from which effective protocols of practice may be derived and which is continuously interrogated by the practitioners themselves. We suggest that the place to start on this quest is the instruction of prospective primary school teachers in early literacy and numeracy.

There is a friendly conflict between field broadcast journalists and broadcast journalism instructors. The conflict centers on the development of best instructional practices for the student journalists. This qualitative study is an attempt to bridge the gap between field journalists and journalism instructors. To accomplish this goal, first, a review of the academic literature was conducted to establish a research base. Then, interviews were conducted with field broadcast journalists ( n = 4) to answer the following guiding research question: According to field broadcast journalists, what knowledge, skills, and training are required when transitioning from MC student into professional broadcast journalist? This study presents the findings of these interviews. Areas of focus are technology, internships, and student motivation. The study concludes with a discussion of academic advisory groups. However, the ultimate goal of the study is to get the two groups talking rather than scowling at each other from across the news desk.

No abstract available.