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Parameter retrieval and model inversion are key problems in remote sensing and Earth observation. Currently, different approximations exist: a direct, yet costly, inversion of radiative transfer models (RTMs); the statistical inversion with in situ data that often results in problems with extrapolation outside the study area; and the most widely adopted hybrid modeling by which statistical models, mostly nonlinear and non-parametric machine learning algorithms, are applied to invert RTM simulations. We will focus on the latter. Among the different existing algorithms, in the last decade kernel based methods, and Gaussian Processes (GPs) in particular, have provided useful and informative solutions to such RTM inversion problems. This is in large part due to the confidence intervals they provide, and their predictive accuracy. However, RTMs are very complex, highly nonlinear, and typically hierarchical models, so that very often a single (shallow) GP model cannot capture complex feature relations for inversion. This motivates the use of deeper hierarchical architectures, while still preserving the desirable properties of GPs. This paper introduces the use of deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) for bio-geo-physical model inversion. Unlike shallow GP models, DGPs account for complicated (modular, hierarchical) processes, provide an efficient solution that scales well to big datasets, and improve prediction accuracy over their single layer counterpart. In the experimental section, we provide empirical evidence of performance for the estimation of surface temperature and dew point temperature from infrared sounding data, as well as for the prediction of chlorophyll content, inorganic suspended matter, and coloured dissolved matter from multispectral data acquired by the Sentinel-3 OLCI sensor. The presented methodology allows for more expressive forms of GPs in big remote sensing model inversion problems., (© 2020 The Authors.)

The availability of satellite optical information is often hampered by the natural presence of clouds, which can be problematic for many applications. Persistent clouds over agricultural fields can mask key stages of crop growth, leading to unreliable yield predictions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides all-weather imagery which can potentially overcome this limitation, but given its high and distinct sensitivity to different surface properties, the fusion of SAR and optical data still remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose the use of Multi-Output Gaussian Process (MOGP) regression, a machine learning technique that learns automatically the statistical relationships among multisensor time series, to detect vegetated areas over which the synergy between SAR-optical imageries is profitable. For this purpose, we use the Sentinel-1 Radar Vegetation Index (RVI) and Sentinel-2 Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series over a study area in north west of the Iberian peninsula. Through a physical interpretation of MOGP trained models, we show its ability to provide estimations of LAI even over cloudy periods using the information shared with RVI, which guarantees the solution keeps always tied to real measurements. Results demonstrate the advantage of MOGP especially for long data gaps, where optical-based methods notoriously fail. The leave-one-image-out assessment technique applied to the whole vegetation cover shows MOGP predictions improve standard GP estimations over short-time gaps (R 2 of 74% vs 68%, RMSE of 0.4 vs 0.44 [ m 2 m -2 ]) and especially over long-time gaps (R 2 of 33% vs 12%, RMSE of 0.5 vs 1.09 [ m 2 m -2 ]). A second assessment is focused on crop-specific regions, clustering pixels fulfilling specific model conditions where the synergy is profitable. Results reveal the MOGP performance is crop type and crop stage dependent. For long time gaps, best R 2 are obtained over maize, ranging from 0.1 (tillering) to 0.36 (development) up to 0.81 (maturity); for moderate time gap, R 2 = 0.93 (maturity) is obtained. Crops such as wheat, oats, rye and barley, can profit from the LAI-RVI synergy, with R 2 varying between 0.4 and 0.6. For beet or potatoes, MOGP provides poorer results, but alternative descriptors to RVI should be tested for these specific crops in the future before discarding synergy real benefits. In conclusion, active-passive sensor fusion with MOGP represents a novel and promising approach to cope with crop monitoring over cloud-dominated areas.

Developing accurate models of crop stress, phenology and productivity is of paramount importance, given the increasing need of food. Earth observation (EO) remote sensing data provides a unique source of information to monitor crops in a temporally resolved and spatially explicit way. In this study, we propose the combination of multisensor (optical and microwave) remote sensing data for crop yield estimation and forecasting using two novel approaches. We first propose the lag between Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from MODIS and Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) derived from SMAP as a new joint metric combining the information from the two satellite sensors in a unique feature or descriptor. Our second approach avoids summarizing statistics and uses machine learning to combine full time series of EVI and VOD. This study considers two statistical methods, a regularized linear regression and its nonlinear extension called kernel ridge regression to directly estimate the county-level surveyed total production, as well as individual yields of the major crops grown in the region: corn, soybean and wheat. The study area includes the US Corn Belt, and we use agricultural survey data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) for year 2015 for quantitative assessment. Results show that (1) the proposed EVI-VOD lag metric correlates well with crop yield and outperforms common single-sensor metrics for crop yield estimation; (2) the statistical (machine learning) models working directly with the time series largely improve results compared to previously reported estimations; (3) the combined exploitation of information from the optical and microwave data leads to improved predictions over the use of single sensor approaches with coefficient of determination R ≥ 2 0.76 ; (4) when models are used for within-season forecasting with limited time information, crop yield prediction is feasible up to four months before harvest (models reach a plateau in accuracy); and (5) the robustness of the approach is confirmed in a multi-year setting, reaching similar performances than when using single-year data. In conclusion, results confirm the value of using both EVI and VOD at the same time, and the advantage of using automatic machine learning models for crop yield/production estimation., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2019 The Authors.)

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

Although a key driver of Earth's climate system, global land-atmosphere energy fluxes are poorly constrained. Here we use machine learning to merge energy flux measurements from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers with remote sensing and meteorological data to estimate global gridded net radiation, latent and sensible heat and their uncertainties. The resulting FLUXCOM database comprises 147 products in two setups: (1) 0.0833° resolution using MODIS remote sensing data (RS) and (2) 0.5° resolution using remote sensing and meteorological data (RS + METEO). Within each setup we use a full factorial design across machine learning methods, forcing datasets and energy balance closure corrections. For RS and RS + METEO setups respectively, we estimate 2001-2013 global (±1 s.d.) net radiation as 75.49 ± 1.39 W m -2 and 77.52 ± 2.43 W m -2 , sensible heat as 32.39 ± 4.17 W m -2 and 35.58 ± 4.75 W m -2 , and latent heat flux as 39.14 ± 6.60 W m -2 and 39.49 ± 4.51 W m -2 (as evapotranspiration, 75.6 ± 9.8 × 10 3 km 3 yr -1 and 76 ± 6.8 × 10 3 km 3 yr -1 ). FLUXCOM products are suitable to quantify global land-atmosphere interactions and benchmark land surface model simulations.

Machine learning approaches are increasingly used to extract patterns and insights from the ever-increasing stream of geospatial data, but current approaches may not be optimal when system behaviour is dominated by spatial or temporal context. Here, rather than amending classical machine learning, we argue that these contextual cues should be used as part of deep learning (an approach that is able to extract spatio-temporal features automatically) to gain further process understanding of Earth system science problems, improving the predictive ability of seasonal forecasting and modelling of long-range spatial connections across multiple timescales, for example. The next step will be a hybrid modelling approach, coupling physical process models with the versatility of data-driven machine learning.

Physically based radiative transfer models (RTMs) are widely used in Earth observation to understand the radiation processes occurring on the Earth's surface and their interactions with water, vegetation, and atmosphere. Through continuous improvements, RTMs have increased in accuracy and representativity of complex scenes at expenses of an increase in complexity and computation time, making them impractical in various remote sensing applications. To overcome this limitation, the common practice is to precompute large lookup tables (LUTs) for their later interpolation. To further reduce the RTM computation burden and the error in LUT interpolation, we have developed a method to automatically select the minimum and optimal set of input-output points (nodes) to be included in an LUT. We present the gradient-based automatic LUT generator algorithm (GALGA), which relies on the notion of an acquisition function that incorporates: 1) the Jacobian evaluation of an RTM and 2) the information about the multivariate distribution of the current nodes. We illustrate the capabilities of GALGA in the automatic construction and optimization of MODTRAN-based LUTs of different dimensions of the input variables space. Our results indicate that when compared with a pseudorandom homogeneous distribution of the LUT nodes, GALGA reduces:1) the LUT size by >24%; 2) the computation time by 27%; and 3) the maximum interpolation relative errors by at least 10%. It is concluded that an automatic LUT design might benefit from the methodology proposed in GALGA to reduce interpolation errors and computation time in computationally expensive RTMs.

An unprecedented spectroscopic data stream will soon become available with forthcoming Earth-observing satellite missions equipped with imaging spectroradiometers. This data stream will open up a vast array of opportunities to quantify a diversity of biochemical and structural vegetation properties. The processing requirements for such large data streams require reliable retrieval techniques enabling the spatiotemporally explicit quantification of biophysical variables. With the aim of preparing for this new era of Earth observation, this review summarizes the state-of-the-art retrieval methods that have been applied in experimental imaging spectroscopy studies inferring all kinds of vegetation biophysical variables. Identified retrieval methods are categorized into: (1) parametric regression, including vegetation indices, shape indices and spectral transformations; (2) nonparametric regression, including linear and nonlinear machine learning regression algorithms; (3) physically based, including inversion of radiative transfer models (RTMs) using numerical optimization and look-up table approaches; and (4) hybrid regression methods, which combine RTM simulations with machine learning regression methods. For each of these categories, an overview of widely applied methods with application to mapping vegetation properties is given. In view of processing imaging spectroscopy data, a critical aspect involves the challenge of dealing with spectral multicollinearity. The ability to provide robust estimates, retrieval uncertainties and acceptable retrieval processing speed are other important aspects in view of operational processing. Recommendations towards new-generation spectroscopy-based processing chains for operational production of biophysical variables are given.

Computationally expensive radiative transfer models (RTMs) are widely used to realistically reproduce the light interaction with the earth surface and atmosphere. Because these models take long processing time, the common practice is to first generate a sparse look-up table (LUT) and then make use of interpolation methods to sample the multidimensional LUT input variable space. However, the question arise whether common interpolation methodsperform most accurate. As an alternative to interpolation, this paper proposes to use emulation, i.e., approximating the RTM output by means of the statistical learning. Two experiments were conducted to assess the accuracy in delivering spectral outputs using interpolation and emulation: at canopy level, using PROSAIL; and at top-of-atmosphere level, using MODTRAN. Various interpolation (nearest-neighbor, inverse distance weighting, and piece-wice linear) and emulation [Gaussian process regression (GPR), kernel ridge regression, and neural networks] methods were evaluated against a dense reference LUT. In all experiments, the emulation methods clearly produced more accurate output spectra than classical interpolation methods. The GPR emulation performed up to ten times more accurately than the best performing interpolation method, and this with a speed that is competitive with the faster interpolation methods. It is concluded that emulation can function as a fast and more accurate alternative to commonly used interpolation methods for reconstructing RTM spectral data.

This brief addresses two main issues of the standard kernel entropy component analysis (KECA) algorithm: the optimization of the kernel decomposition and the optimization of the Gaussian kernel parameter. KECA roughly reduces to a sorting of the importance of kernel eigenvectors by entropy instead of variance, as in the kernel principal components analysis. In this brief, we propose an extension of the KECA method, named optimized KECA (OKECA), that directly extracts the optimal features retaining most of the data entropy by means of compacting the information in very few features (often in just one or two). The proposed method produces features which have higher expressive power. In particular, it is based on the independent component analysis framework, and introduces an extra rotation to the eigen decomposition, which is optimized via gradient-ascent search. This maximum entropy preservation suggests that OKECA features are more efficient than KECA features for density estimation. In addition, a critical issue in both the methods is the selection of the kernel parameter, since it critically affects the resulting performance. Here, we analyze the most common kernel length-scale selection criteria. The results of both the methods are illustrated in different synthetic and real problems. Results show that OKECA returns projections with more expressive power than KECA, the most successful rule for estimating the kernel parameter is based on maximum likelihood, and OKECA is more robust to the selection of the length-scale parameter in kernel density estimation.

Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

The wealth of sensory data coming from different modalities has opened numerous opportunities for data analysis. The data are of increasing volume, complexity and dimensionality, thus calling for new methodological innovations towards multimodal data processing. However, multimodal architectures must rely on models able to adapt to changes in the data distribution. Differences in the density functions can be due to changes in acquisition conditions (pose, illumination), sensors characteristics (number of channels, resolution) or different views (e.g. street level vs. aerial views of a same building). We call these different acquisition modes domains, and refer to the adaptation problem as domain adaptation. In this paper, instead of adapting the trained models themselves, we alternatively focus on finding mappings of the data sources into a common, semantically meaningful, representation domain. This field of manifold alignment extends traditional techniques in statistics such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to deal with nonlinear adaptation and possibly non-corresponding data pairs between the domains. We introduce a kernel method for manifold alignment (KEMA) that can match an arbitrary number of data sources without needing corresponding pairs, just few labeled examples in all domains. KEMA has interesting properties: 1) it generalizes other manifold alignment methods, 2) it can align manifolds of very different complexities, performing a discriminative alignment preserving each manifold inner structure, 3) it can define a domain-specific metric to cope with multimodal specificities, 4) it can align data spaces of different dimensionality, 5) it is robust to strong nonlinear feature deformations, and 6) it is closed-form invertible, which allows transfer across-domains and data synthesis. To authors' knowledge this is the first method addressing all these important issues at once. We also present a reduced-rank version of KEMA for computational efficiency, and discuss the generalization performance of KEMA under Rademacher principles of stability. Aligning multimodal data with KEMA reports outstanding benefits when used as a data pre-conditioner step in the standard data analysis processing chain. KEMA exhibits very good performance over competing methods in synthetic controlled examples, visual object recognition and recognition of facial expressions tasks. KEMA is especially well-suited to deal with high-dimensional problems, such as images and videos, and under complicated distortions, twists and warpings of the data manifolds. A fully functional toolbox is available at https://github.com/dtuia/KEMA.git.

This paper presents a new framework for manifold learning based on a sequence of principal polynomials that capture the possibly nonlinear nature of the data. The proposed Principal Polynomial Analysis (PPA) generalizes PCA by modeling the directions of maximal variance by means of curves, instead of straight lines. Contrarily to previous approaches, PPA reduces to performing simple univariate regressions, which makes it computationally feasible and robust. Moreover, PPA shows a number of interesting analytical properties. First, PPA is a volume-preserving map, which in turn guarantees the existence of the inverse. Second, such an inverse can be obtained in closed form. Invertibility is an important advantage over other learning methods, because it permits to understand the identified features in the input domain where the data has physical meaning. Moreover, it allows to evaluate the performance of dimensionality reduction in sensible (input-domain) units. Volume preservation also allows an easy computation of information theoretic quantities, such as the reduction in multi-information after the transform. Third, the analytical nature of PPA leads to a clear geometrical interpretation of the manifold: it allows the computation of Frenet-Serret frames (local features) and of generalized curvatures at any point of the space. And fourth, the analytical Jacobian allows the computation of the metric induced by the data, thus generalizing the Mahalanobis distance. These properties are demonstrated theoretically and illustrated experimentally. The performance of PPA is evaluated in dimensionality and redundancy reduction, in both synthetic and real datasets from the UCI repository.