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On 1 May 2018, a pertussis outbreak was declared and widespread vaccination recommended at an all-female secondary boarding school in southern England. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to determine the extent of pertussis transmission and identify risk factors in this semi-closed population. Of 504 students and staff assessed before post-exposure vaccination, 48% (n = 240) had evidence of pertussis. A sub-analysis of 409 students found that both residential dormitory (p = 0.05) and school year (p = 0.03) were associated with pertussis, with odds decreasing by 11% for each increase in school year (95% confidence interval: 0.7–20.2). Odds of pertussis were 1.7 times higher in those assumed to have received acellular vaccines for their primary course compared with those assumed to have received whole-cell vaccines (based on date of birth), although this difference was not significant (p = 0.12). Our findings support the need for timely, widespread vaccination following identification of cases among adolescents in a semi-closed United Kingdom (UK) setting and to review the evidence for the introduction of an adolescent pertussis booster to the UK routine vaccination programme.

Campylobacter spp. are the most common bacterial cause of foodborne illness in the UK, with chicken considered to be the most important vehicle for this organism. The UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) agreed with industry to reduce Campylobacter spp. contamination in raw chicken and issued a target to reduce the prevalence of the most contaminated chickens (those with more than 1000 cfu per g chicken neck skin) to below 10 % at the end of the slaughter process, initially by 2016. To help monitor progress, a series of UK-wide surveys were undertaken to determine the levels of Campylobacter spp. on whole UK-produced, fresh chicken at retail sale in the UK. The data obtained for the first four years was reported in FSA projects FS241044 (2014/15) and FS102121 (2015 to 2018). The FSA has indicated that the retail proxy target for the percentage of highly contaminated raw whole retail chickens should be less than 7% and while continued monitoring has demonstrated a sustained decline for chickens from major retailer stores, chicken on sale in other stores have yet to meet this target. This report presents results from testing chickens from non-major retailer stores (only) in a fifth survey year from 2018 to 2019. In line with previous practise, samples were collected from stores distributed throughout the UK (in proportion to the population size of each country). Testing was performed by two laboratories - a Public Health England (PHE) laboratory or the Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute (AFBI), Belfast. Enumeration of Campylobacter spp. was performed using the ISO 10272-2 standard enumeration method applied with a detection limit of 10 colony forming units (cfu) per gram (g) of neck skin. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to selected antimicrobials in accordance with those advised in the EU harmonised monitoring protocol was predicted from genome sequence data in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates The percentage (10.8%) of fresh, whole chicken at retail sale in stores of smaller chains (for example, Iceland, McColl’s, Budgens, Nisa, Costcutter, One Stop), independents and butchers (collectively referred to as non-major retailer stores in this report) in the UK that are highly contaminated (at more than 1000 cfu per g) with Campylobacter spp. has decreased since the previous survey year but is still higher than that found in samples from major retailers. 8 whole fresh raw chickens from non-major retailer stores were collected from August 2018 to July 2019 (n = 1009). Campylobacter spp. were detected in 55.8% of the chicken skin samples obtained from non-major retailer shops, and 10.8% of the samples had counts above 1000 cfu per g chicken skin. Comparison among production plant approval codes showed significant differences of the percentages of chicken samples with more than 1000 cfu per g, ranging from 0% to 28.1%. The percentage of samples with more than 1000 cfu of Campylobacter spp. per g was significantly higher in the period May, June and July than in the period November to April. The percentage of highly contaminated samples was significantly higher for samples taken from larger compared to smaller chickens. There was no statistical difference in the percentage of highly contaminated samples between those obtained from chicken reared with access to range (for example, free-range and organic birds) and those reared under standard regime (for example, no access to range) but the small sample size for organic and to a lesser extent free-range chickens, may have limited the ability to detect important differences should they exist. Campylobacter species was determined for isolates from 93.4% of the positive samples. C. jejuni was isolated from the majority (72.6%) of samples while C. coli was identified in 22.1% of samples. A combination of both species was found in 5.3% of samples. C. coli was more frequently isolated from samples obtained from chicken reared with access to range in comparison to those reared as standard birds. C. jejuni was less prevalent during the summer months of June, July and August compared to the remaining months of the year. Resistance to ciprofloxacin (fluoroquinolone), erythromycin (macrolide), tetracycline, (tetracyclines), gentamicin and streptomycin (aminoglycosides) was predicted from WGS data by the detection of known antimicrobial resistance determinants. Resistance to ciprofloxacin was detected in 185 (51.7%) isolates of C. jejuni and 49 (42.1%) isolates of C. coli; while 220 (61.1%) isolates of C. jejuni and 73 (62.9%) isolates of C. coli isolates were resistant to tetracycline. Three C. coli (2.6%) but none of the C. jejuni isolates harboured 23S mutations predicting reduced susceptibility to erythromycin. Multidrug resistance (MDR), defined as harbouring genetic determinants for resistance to at least three unrelated antimicrobial classes, was found in 10 (8.6%) C. coli isolates but not in any C. jejuni isolates. Co-resistance to ciprofloxacin and erythromycin was predicted in 1.7% of C. coli isolates. 9 Overall, the percentages of isolates with genetic AMR determinants found in this study were similar to those reported in the previous survey year (August 2016 to July 2017) where testing was based on phenotypic break-point testing. Multi-drug resistance was similar to that found in the previous survey years. It is recommended that trends in AMR in Campylobacter spp. isolates from retail chickens continue to be monitored to realise any increasing resistance of concern, particulary to erythromycin (macrolide). Considering that the percentage of fresh, whole chicken from non-major retailer stores in the UK that are highly contaminated (at more than 1000 cfu per g) with Campylobacter spp. continues to be above that in samples from major retailers more action including consideration of interventions such as improved biosecurity and slaughterhouse measures is needed to achieve better control of Campylobacter spp. for this section of the industry. The FSA has indicated that the retail proxy target for the percentage of highly contaminated retail chickens should be less than 7% and while continued monitoring has demonstrated a sustained decline for chickens from major retailer stores, chicken on sale in other stores have yet to meet this target.

Objective To evaluate the relation between diagnosis of covid-19 with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (also known as variant of concern 202012/01) and the risk of hospital admission compared with diagnosis with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variants. Design Retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Community based SARS-CoV-2 testing in England, individually linked with hospital admission data. Participants 839 278 patients with laboratory confirmed covid-19, of whom 36 233 had been admitted to hospital within 14 days, tested between 23 November 2020 and 31 January 2021 and analysed at a laboratory with an available TaqPath assay that enables assessment of S-gene target failure (SGTF), a proxy test for the B.1.1.7 variant. Patient data were stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, region of residence, and date of positive test. Main outcome measures Hospital admission between one and 14 days after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Results 27 710 (4.7%) of 592 409 patients with SGTF variants and 8523 (3.5%) of 246 869 patients without SGTF variants had been admitted to hospital within one to 14 days. The stratum adjusted hazard ratio of hospital admission was 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.57) for patients with covid-19 infected with SGTF variants, compared with those infected with non-SGTF variants. The effect was modified by age (P Conclusions The results suggest that the risk of hospital admission is higher for people infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease. The higher severity may be specific to adults older than 30 years.

BackgroundHow SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission sources despite imperfect sensitivity is unknown.MethodsWe combined SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing data from England between 01-September-2020 and 28-February-2021. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate relationships between PCR-confirmed infection in contacts of community-diagnosed cases and index case viral load, S gene target failure (proxy for B.1.1.7 infection), demographics, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, social deprivation, and contact event type. We used LFD performance to simulate the proportion of cases with a PCR-positive contact expected to be detected using one of four LFDs.Results231,498/2,474,066 (9%) contacts of 1,064,004 index cases tested PCR-positive. PCR-positive results in contacts independently increased with higher case viral loads (lower Ct values) e.g., 11.7%(95%CI 11.5-12.0%) at Ct=15 and 4.5%(4.4-4.6%) at Ct=30. B.1.1.7 infection increased PCR-positive results by ∼50%, (e.g. 1.55-fold, 95%CI 1.49-1.61, at Ct=20). PCR-positive results were most common in household contacts (at Ct=20.1, 8.7%[95%CI 8.6-8.9%]), followed by household visitors (7.1%[6.8-7.3%]), contacts at events/activities (5.2%[4.9-5.4%]), work/education (4.6%[4.4-4.8%]), and least common after outdoor contact (2.9%[2.3-3.8%]). Contacts of children were the least likely to test positive, particularly following contact outdoors or at work/education. The most and least sensitive LFDs would detect 89.5%(89.4-89.6%) and 83.0%(82.8-83.1%) of cases with PCR-positive contacts respectively.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies by case viral load, contact event type, and age. Those with high viral loads are the most infectious. B.1.1.7 increased transmission by ∼50%. The best performing LFDs detect most infectious cases.Key pointsIn 2,474,066 contacts of 1,064,004 SARS-CoV-2 cases, PCR-positive tests in contacts increased with higher index case viral loads, the B.1.1.7 variant and household contact. Children were less infectious. Lateral flow devices can detect 83.0-89.5% of infections leading to onward transmission.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 antibody tests are used for population surveillance and might have a future role in individual risk assessment. Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) can deliver results rapidly and at scale, but have widely varying accuracy.MethodsIn a laboratory setting, we performed head-to-head comparisons of four LFIAs: the Rapid Test Consortium’s AbC-19™Rapid Test, OrientGene COVID IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette, SureScreen COVID-19 Rapid Test Cassette, and Biomerica COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test. We analysed blood samples from 2,847 key workers and 1,995 pre-pandemic blood donors with all four devices.FindingsWe observed a clear trade-off between sensitivity and specificity: the IgG band of the SureScreen device and the AbC-19™device had higher specificities but OrientGene and Biomerica higher sensitivities. Based on analysis of pre-pandemic samples, SureScreen IgG band had the highest specificity (98.9%, 95% confidence interval 98.3 to 99.3%), which translated to the highest positive predictive value across any pre-test probability: for example, 95.1% (95%CI 92.6, 96.8%) at 20% pre-test probability. All four devices showed higher sensitivity at higher antibody concentrations (“spectrum effects”), but the extent of this varied by device.InterpretationThe estimates of sensitivity and specificity can be used to adjust for test error rates when using these devices to estimate the prevalence of antibody. If tests were used to determine whether an individual has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, in an example scenario in which 20% of individuals have antibodies we estimate around 5% of positive results on the most specific device would be false positives.FundingPublic Health England.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched for evidence on the accuracy of the four devices compared in this study: OrientGene COVID IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette, SureScreen COVID-19™ Rapid Test Cassette, Biomerica COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test and the UK Rapid Test Consortium’s AbC-19™ Rapid Test. We searched Ovid MEDLINE (In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and Daily), PubMed, MedRxiv/BioRxiv and Google Scholar from January 2020 to 16thJanuary 2021. Search terms included device names AND ((SARS-CoV-2) OR (covid)). Of 303 records assessed, data were extracted from 24 studies: 18 reporting on the accuracy of the OrientGene device, 7 SureScreen, 2 AbC-19™ and 1 Biomerica. Only three studies compared the accuracy of two or more of the four devices. With the exception of our previous report on the accuracy of the AbC-19™ device, which the current manuscript builds upon, sample size ranged from 7 to 684. For details, see Supplementary Materials.The largest study compared OrientGene, SureScreen and Biomerica. SureScreen was estimated to have the highest specificity (99.8%, 95% CI 98.9 to 100%) and OrientGene the highest sensitivity (92.6%), but with uncertainty about the latter result due to small sample sizes. The other two comparative studies were small (n = 65, n = 67) and therefore provide very uncertain results.We previously observed spectrum effects for the AbC-19™ device, such that sensitivity is upwardly biased if estimated only from PCR-confirmed cases. The vast majority of previous studies estimated sensitivity in this way.Added value of this studyWe performed a large scale (n = 4,842), head-to-head laboratory-based evaluation and comparison of four lateral flow devices, which were selected for evaluation by the UK Department of Health and Social Care’s New Tests Advisory Group, on the basis of a survey of test and performance data available. We evaluated the performance of diagnosis based on both IgG and IgM bands, and the IgG band alone. We found a clear trade-off between sensitivity and specificity across devices, with the SureScreen and AbC-19™ devices being more specific and OrientGene and Biomerica more sensitive. Based on analysis of 1,995 pre-pandemic blood samples, we are 99% confident that SureScreen (IgG band reading) has the highest specificity of the four devices (98.9%, 95% CI 98.3, 99.3%).We found evidence that all four devices have reduced sensitivity at lower antibody indices, i.e. spectrum effects. However, the extent of this varies by device and appears to be less for other devices than for AbC-19.Our estimates of sensitivity and specificity are likely to be higher than would be observed in real use of these devices, as they were based on majority readings of three trained laboratory personnel.Implications of all the available evidenceWhen used in epidemiological studies of antibody prevalence, the estimates of sensitivity and specificity provided in this study can be used to adjust for test errors. Increased precision in error rates will translate to increased precision in seroprevalence estimates. If lateral flow devices were used for individual risk assessment, devices with maximum specificity would be preferable. However, if, for an example, 20% of the tested population had antibodies, we estimate that around 1 in 20 positive results on the most specific device would be incorrect.

Introduction This study aimed to (1) report the rates of resistance against a variety of antibiotics for pure Staphylococcal infections, and (2) examine the impact of ALBC use at primary surgery has on resistance patterns for patients undergoing first-time revision of primary hip and knee arthroplasty for indication of infection. Materials and methods Data from the National Joint Registry database for England and Wales were linked to microbiology data held by Public Health England to identify a consecutive series of 258 primary hip and knee arthroplasties performed between April 2003 and January 2014 that went on to have a revision for Staphylococcal deep periprosthetic infection. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to study predictors of microorganism resistance to a range of antimicrobials. Results After adjusting for patient and surgical factors, multivariate analysis showed the use of gentamicin-loaded bone cement at the primary surgery was associated with a significant increase in the risk of Staphylococcal gentamicin resistance (odds ratio 8.341, 95% CI 2.297–30.292, p = 0.001) and methicillin resistance (odds ratio 3.870, 95% CI 1.319–11.359, p = 0.014) at revision for infection. Conclusions Clinicians must anticipate the possibility of antibiotic resistance to ALBC utilised at primary surgery.

Background How severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission sources despite imperfect clinical sensitivity is unknown. Methods We combined SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing data from England between 1 September 2020 and 28 February 2021. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate relationships between polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed infection in contacts of community-diagnosed cases and index case viral load, S gene target failure (proxy for B.1.1.7 infection), demographics, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, social deprivation, and contact event type. We used LFD performance to simulate the proportion of cases with a PCR-positive contact expected to be detected using 1 of 4 LFDs. Results In total, 231 498/2 474 066 (9%) contacts of 1 064 004 index cases tested PCR-positive. PCR-positive results in contacts independently increased with higher case viral loads (lower cycle threshold [Ct] values), for example, 11.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.5–12.0%) at Ct = 15 and 4.5% (95% CI 4.4–4.6%) at Ct = 30. B.1.1.7 infection increased PCR-positive results by ~50%, (eg, 1.55-fold, 95% CI 1.49–1.61, at Ct = 20). PCR-positive results were most common in household contacts (at Ct = 20.1, 8.7% [95% CI 8.6–8.9%]), followed by household visitors (7.1% [95% CI 6.8–7.3%]), contacts at events/activities (5.2% [95% CI 4.9–5.4%]), work/education (4.6% [95% CI 4.4–4.8%]), and least common after outdoor contact (2.9% [95% CI 2.3–3.8%]). Contacts of children were the least likely to test positive, particularly following contact outdoors or at work/education. The most and least sensitive LFDs would detect 89.5% (95% CI 89.4–89.6%) and 83.0% (95% CI 82.8–83.1%) of cases with PCR-positive contacts, respectively. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies by case viral load, contact event type, and age. Those with high viral loads are the most infectious. B.1.1.7 increased transmission by ~50%. The best performing LFDs detect most infectious cases.

Background\ud Screening for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is under way in some key worker groups; how this adds to self-reported COVID-19 illness is unclear. In this study, we investigate the association between self-reported belief of COVID-19 illness and seropositivity. \ud \ud Methods\ud Cross-sectional study of three key worker streams comprising (A) Police and Fire & Rescue (2 sites) (B) healthcare workers (1 site) and (C) healthcare workers with previously positive PCR result (5 sites). We collected self-reported signs and symptoms of COVID-19 and compared this with serology results from two SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays (Roche Elecsys® and EUROIMMUN). \ud \ud Results\ud Between 01 and 26 June, we recruited 2847 individuals (Stream A: 1,247, Stream B: 1,546 and Stream C: 154). Amongst those without previous positive PCR tests, 687/2,579 (26%) reported belief they had COVID-19, having experienced compatible symptoms; however, only 208 (30.3%) of these were seropositive on both immunoassays. Both immunoassays had high sensitivities relative to previous PCR positivity (>93%); there was also limited decline in antibody titres up to 110 days post symptom onset. Symptomatic but seronegative individuals had differing symptom profiles and shorter illnesses than seropositive individuals. \ud \ud Conclusion\ud Non-COVID-19 respiratory illness may have been mistaken for COVID-19 during the outbreak; laboratory testing is more specific than self-reported key worker beliefs in ascertaining past COVID-19 disease.

COVID-19 is reported to have been brought under control in China. To understand the COVID-19 outbreak in China and provide potential lessons for other parts of the world, in this study we apply a mathematical model with multiple datasets to estimate the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the severity of the illness associated with the infection, and how both were affected by unprecedented control measures. Our analyses show that before 19th January 2020, 3.5% (95% CI 1.7–8.3%) of infected people were detected; this percentage increased to 36.6% (95% CI 26.1–55.4%) thereafter. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 2.33 (95% CI 1.96–3.69) before 8th February 2020; then the effective reproduction number dropped to 0.04(95% CI 0.01–0.10). This estimation also indicates that control measures taken since 23rd January 2020 affected the transmissibility about 2 weeks after they were introduced. The confirmed case fatality rate is estimated at 9.6% (95% CI 8.1–11.4%) before 15 February 2020, and then it reduced to 0.7% (95% CI 0.4–1.0%). This shows that SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly transmissible but may be less severe than SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV. We found that at the early stage, the majority of R0 comes from undetected infectious people. This implies that successful control in China was achieved through reducing the contact rates among people in the general population and increasing the rate of detection and quarantine of the infectious cases.

BackgroundThere is an urgent need to better understand whether individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from future SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsA large multi-centre prospective cohort was recruited from publicly funded hospital staff in the UK. Participants attended regular SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing (every 2-4 weeks) and completed fortnightly questionnaires on symptoms and exposures. At enrolment, participants were assigned to either the positive cohort (antibody positive or prior PCR/antibody test positive) or negative cohort (antibody negative, not previously known to be PCR/antibody positive). Potential reinfections were clinically reviewed and classified according to case definitions (confirmed, probable, possible (subdivided by symptom-status)) depending on hierarchy of evidence. Individuals in the primary infection were excluded from this analysis if infection was confirmed by antibody only. Reinfection rates in the positive cohort were compared against new PCR positives in the negative cohort using a mixed effective multivariable logistic regression analysis.FindingsBetween 18 June and 09 November 2020, 44 reinfections (2 probable, 42 possible) were detected in the baseline positive cohort of 6,614 participants, collectively contributing 1,339,078 days of follow-up. This compares with 318 new PCR positive infections and 94 antibody seroconversions in the negative cohort of 14,173 participants, contributing 1,868,646 days of follow-up. The incidence density per 100,000 person days between June and November 2020 was 3.3 reinfections in the positive cohort, compared with 22.4 new PCR confirmed infections in the negative cohort. The adjusted odds ratio was 0.17 for all reinfections (95% CI 0.13-0.24) compared to PCR confirmed primary infections. The median interval between primary infection and reinfection was over 160 days.InterpretationA prior history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 83% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed five months following primary infection. This is the minimum likely effect as seroconversions were not included.FundingDepartment of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.

Background: The emergence of VOC202012/01 in England, known as B.1.1.7 or informally as the ‘UK variant’, has coincided with rapid increases in the number of PCR-confirmed positive cases in areas where the variant has been concentrated. Methods: To assess whether infection with SARS-CoV-2 variant VOC202012/01 is associated with more severe clinical outcomes compared to wild-type infection, genomically sequenced and confirmed variant and wild-type cases were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. Two statistical analyses were conducted to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of test between variant and wild-type cases: a case-control study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. Differences in severity of disease were assessed by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death. Results: Of 63,609 genomically sequenced COVID-19 cases tested in England between October and December 2020 6,038 were variant cases. In the matched cohort analysis 2,821 variant cases were matched to 2,821 to wild-type cases. In the time to event analysis we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with the variant compared to wild-type cases, however, no significant difference in the risk of mortality was observed. Conclusion: We found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increase infection severity associated with this variant. Follow-up studies are needed to assess potential longer-term differences in the clinical outcomes of people infected with the VOC-202012/01 variant.

Background Candida auris is an emerging multidrug-resistant fungal pathogen associated with bloodstream, wound and other infections, especially in critically ill patients. C. auris carriage is persistent and is difficult to eradicate from the hospital environment. Aim We aimed to pilot admission screening for C. auris in intensive care units (ICUs) in England to estimate prevalence in the ICU population and to inform public health guidance. Methods Between May 2017 and April 2018, we screened admissions to eight adult ICUs in hospitals with no previous cases of C. auris, in three major cities. Swabs were taken from the nose, throat, axilla, groin, perineum, rectum and catheter urine, then cultured and identified using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Patient records were linked to routine ICU data to describe and compare the demographic and health indicators of the screened cohort with a national cohort of ICU patients admitted between 2016 and 2017. Results All C. auris screens for 921 adults from 998 admissions were negative. The upper confidence limit of the pooled prevalence across all sites was 0.4%. Comparison of the screened cohort with the national cohort showed it was broadly similar to the national cohort with respect to demographics and co-morbidities. Conclusion These findings imply that C. auris colonisation among patients admitted to ICUs in England is currently rare. We would not currently recommend widespread screening for C. auris in ICUs in England. Hospitals should continue to screen high-risk individuals based on local risk assessment.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is highly transmissible and spreading globally but a detailed understanding of community transmission risks in highly vaccinated populations is lacking. Methods: Between September 2020 and August 2021, we recruited 510 community contacts of 422 UK COVID-19 cases to a cohort study. A total of 7194 upper respiratory tract (URT) samples were tested from sequential daily sampling of participants for up to 20 days. We analysed transmission risk by vaccination status for 139 contacts exposed to the Delta variant. We compared viral load (VL) trajectories from fully-vaccinated cases of Delta infection (n=19) with unvaccinated Delta (n=10), Alpha (n=39) and pre-Alpha (n=49) infections. Findings: The household secondary attack rate for fully-vaccinated contacts exposed to Delta was 19.7% (95%CI:11.6-31.3%), compared with 35.7% (95%CI:16.4-61.2%) in the unvaccinated. One third of infections in Delta-exposed contacts arose from fully-vaccinated index cases and one half of infected contacts were also fully-vaccinated. Seven transmission events between fully vaccinated index-contact pairs occurred. Genomic analysis confirmed transmission pathways between fully-vaccinated individuals within three households. Peak VL was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with Delta variant infection but vaccinated Delta cases saw significantly faster VL decline than unvaccinated Alpha or Delta cases. Within infected individuals, faster VL growth was correlated with higher peak VL and slower decline. Interpretation: Although vaccination reduces the risk of Delta infection and causes some changes to viral kinetics, fully-vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak URT VL similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (Award:NIHR200927) Declaration of Interest: The authors declare no relevant conflicts. Ethical Approval: The study was approved by the Health Research Authority (Research Ethics Committee reference: 20/NW/0231).

Background There is an urgent need to better understand whether individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from future SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods A large multi-centre prospective cohort was recruited from publicly funded hospital staff in the UK. Participants attended regular SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing (every 2-4 weeks) and completed fortnightly questionnaires on symptoms and exposures. At enrolment, participants were assigned to either the positive cohort (antibody positive or prior PCR/antibody test positive) or negative cohort (antibody negative, not previously known to be PCR/antibody positive). Potential reinfections were clinically reviewed and classified according to case definitions (confirmed, probable, possible (subdivided by symptom-status)) depending on hierarchy of evidence. Individuals in the primary infection were excluded from this analysis if infection was confirmed by antibody only. Reinfection rates in the positive cohort were compared against new PCR positives in the negative cohort using a mixed effective multivariable logistic regression analysis. Findings Between 18 June and 09 November 2020, 44 reinfections (2 probable, 42 possible) were detected in the baseline positive cohort of 6,614 participants, collectively contributing 1,339,078 days of follow-up. This compares with 318 new PCR positive infections and 94 antibody seroconversions in the negative cohort of 14,173 participants, contributing 1,868,646 days of follow-up. The incidence density per 100,000 person days between June and November 2020 was 3.3 reinfections in the positive cohort, compared with 22.4 new PCR confirmed infections in the negative cohort. The adjusted odds ratio was 0.17 for all reinfections (95% CI 0.13-0.24) compared to PCR confirmed primary infections. The median interval between primary infection and reinfection was over 160 days. Interpretation A prior history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 83% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed five months following primary infection. This is the minimum likely effect as seroconversions were not included. Funding Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.

Background: BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 nCOV-19 adenoviral vector vaccines have been rapidly rolled out in the UK. We determined the factors associated with vaccine coverage for both vaccines and documented the vaccine effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in our healthcare worker (HCW) cohort study of staff undergoing regular asymptomatic testing. Methods: The SIREN study is a prospective cohort study among staff working in publicly funded hospitals. Baseline risk factors, vaccination status (from 8/12/2020-5/2/2021), and symptoms are recorded at 2 weekly intervals and all SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and antibody test results documented. A mixed effect proportional hazards frailty model using a Poisson distribution was used to calculate hazard ratios to compare time to infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated participants to estimate the impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine on all (asymptomatic and symptomatic) infection. Findings: Vaccine coverage was 89% on 5/2/2021. Significantly lower coverage was associated with prior infection (aOR 0.59 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.64), female (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82), aged under 35 years, being from minority ethnic groups (especially Black, aOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.21-0.32), porters/security guards (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.90),or midwife (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97), and living in more deprived neighbourhoods (IMD 1 (most) vs. 5 (least) (aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.87). A single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine demonstrated vaccine effectiveness of 72% (95% CI 58-86) 21 days after first dose and 86% (95% CI 76-97) seven days after two doses in the antibody negative cohort. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that the BNT162b2 vaccine effectively prevents both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection in working age adults; this cohort was vaccinated when the dominant variant in circulation was B1.1.7 and demonstrates effectiveness against this variant. Trial Registration: IRAS ID 284460, REC reference 20/SC/0230 Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, Health Research Authority and Health and Care Research Wales approval granted 22 May 2020. Trial registered with ISRCTN, Trial ID: ISRCTN11041050. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN11041050 Funding: The study is funded by the United Kingdom’s Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments. Funding is also provided by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) as an Urgent Public Health Priority Study (UPHP). SH, VH are supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at the University of Oxford in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (NIHR200915). AC is supported by NIHR HealthProtection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation at University of Bristol in partnership with Public Health England. MR, NA, AC are supported by NIHR HealthProtection Research Unit in Immunisation at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England. Conflict of Interest: The Immunisation and Countermeasures Division has provided vaccine manufacturers(including Pfizer) with post-marketing surveillance reports on pneumococcal andmeningococcal infection which the companies are required to submit to the UK Licensing authority in compliance with their Risk Management Strategy. A cost recovery charge is made for these reports. Ethical Approval: The study was approved by the Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, Health Research Authority (IRAS ID 284460, REC reference 20/SC/0230) on 22 May 2020; the vaccine amendment was approved on 12/1/2021.

Two London care homes experienced a second COVID-19 outbreak, with 29/209 (13.9%) SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive cases (16/103 residents, 13/106 staff). In those with prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure, 1/88 (1.1%) individuals (antibody positive: 87; RT-PCR-positive: 1) became PCR-positive compared with 22/73 (30.1%) with confirmed seronegative status. After four months protection offered by prior infection against re-infection was 96.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 72.7–99.5%) using risk ratios from comparison of proportions and 96.1% (95% CI: 78.8–99.3%) using a penalised logistic regression model.

BackgroundThe evidence on risk factors for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in community settings is sparse, yet this information is key to inform public health action. We investigated factors associated with being a COVID-19 case using data collected through contact tracing.MethodsWe conducted three retrospective, frequency-matched case-control studies between August 2020 and October 2020 using case data from the NHS Test and Trace programme. Controls were obtained through Market Research Panels. Multivariable analyses provided adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for multiple community exposure settings. We analysed the results in meta-analyses using random effects models to obtain pooled odds ratios (pORs).ResultsAcross all study periods, there was strong statistical evidence that working in healthcare (pOR 2.87, aOR range 2.72-3.08), social care (pOR 4.15, aOR range 2.46-5.41) or hospitality (pOR 2.36, aOR range 2.01-2.63) were associated with increased odds of being a COVID-19 case. There was also evidence that working in warehouse setting was associated with increased odds (pOR 3.86, aOR range 1.06-14.19), with a substantial increase in odds observed over the study periods. A similar pattern was also observed in education and construction.ConclusionsThe studies indicate that some workplace settings are associated with increased odds of being a case. However, it is not possible to determine how much of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 took place within the workplace, and how much was associated with social, household or transport exposures.

BackgroundThe overall risk of reinfection in individuals who have previously had COVID-19 is unknown. To determine if prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (as determined by at least one positive commercial antibody test performed in a laboratory) in healthcare workers confers future immunity to reinfection, we are undertaking a large-scale prospective longitudinal cohort study of healthcare staff across the United Kingdom.MethodsPopulation and Setting: staff members of healthcare organisations working in hospitals in the UKAt recruitment, participants will have their serum tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 at baseline and using these results will be initially allocated to either antibody positive or antibody negative cohorts. Participants will undergo antibody and viral RNA testing at 1-4 weekly intervals throughout the study period, and based on these results may move between cohorts. Any results from testing undertaken for other reasons (e.g. symptoms, contact tracing etc.) or prior to study entry will also be included. Individuals will complete enrolment and fortnightly questionnaires on exposures and symptoms. Follow-up will be for at least 12 months from study entry.OutcomeThe primary outcome of interest is a reinfection with SARS -CoV-2 during the study period. Secondary outcomes will include incidence and prevalence (both RNA and antibody) of SARS-CoV-2, viral genomics, viral culture, symptom history and antibody/neutralising antibody titres.ConclusionThis large study will help us to understand the impact of the presence of antibodies on the risk of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2; the results will have substantial implications in terms of national and international policy, as well as for risk management of contacts of COVID-19 cases.Trial RegistrationIRAS ID 284460, HRA and Health and Care Research Wales approval granted 22 May 2020.

ObjectivesTo identify key predictors of general practitioner (GP) consultations for allergic rhinitis (AR) using meteorological and environmental data.DesignA retrospective, time series analysis of GP consultations for AR.SettingA large GP surveillance network of GP practices in the London area.ParticipantsThe study population was all persons who presented to general practices in London that report to the Public Health England GP in-hours syndromic surveillance system during the study period (3 April 2012 to 11 August 2014).Primary measureConsultations for AR (numbers of consultations).ResultsDuring the study period there were 186 401 GP consultations for AR. High grass and nettle pollen counts (combined) were associated with the highest increases in consultations (for the category 216-270 grains/m3, relative risk (RR) 3.33, 95% CI 2.69 to 4.12) followed by high tree (oak, birch and plane combined) pollen counts (for the category 260–325 grains/m3, RR 1.69, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.15) and average daily temperatures between 15°C and 20°C (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.81). Higher levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) appeared to be associated with increased consultations (for the category 70–85 µg/m3, RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.71), but a significant effect was not found with ozone. Higher daily rainfall was associated with fewer consultations (15–20 mm/day; RR 0.812, 95% CI 0.674 to 0.980).ConclusionsChanges in grass, nettle or tree pollen counts, temperatures between 15°C and 20°C, and (to a lesser extent) NO2 concentrations were found to be associated with increased consultations for AR. Rainfall has a negative effect. In the context of climate change and continued exposures to environmental air pollution, intelligent use of these data will aid targeting public health messages and plan healthcare demand.

Background C-reactive protein (CRP) testing can be used as a point-of-care test (POCT) to guide antibiotic use for acute cough. Aim We wanted to determine feasibility and effect of introducing CRP POCT in general practices in an area with high antibiotic prescribing for patients with acute cough and to evaluate patients’ views of the test. Methods We used a McNulty–Zelen cluster pragmatic randomised controlled trial design in general practices in Northern England. Eight intervention practices accepted CRP testing and eight control practices maintained usual practice. Data collection included process evaluation, patient questionnaires, practice audit and antibiotic prescribing data. Results Eight practices with over 47,000 patient population undertook 268 CRP tests over 6 months: 78% of patients had a CRP 100 mg/L, where 90%, 22% and 100%, respectively, followed National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) antibiotic prescribing guidance. Patients reported that CRP testing was comfortable (88%), convenient (84%), useful (92%) and explained well (85%). Patients believed CRP POCT aided clinical diagnosis, provided quick results and reduced unnecessary antibiotic use. Intervention practices had an estimated 21% reduction (95% confidence interval: 0.46–1.35) in the odds of prescribing for cough compared with the controls, a non-significant but clinically relevant reduction. Conclusions In routine general practice, CRP POCT use was variable. Non-significant reductions in antibiotic prescribing may reflect small sample size due to non-use of tests. While CRP POCT may be useful, primary care staff need clearer CRP guidance and action planning according to NICE guidance.

Background Immune correlates of protection from COVID-19 are important, but incompletely understood. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study in 2,826 participants working in hospitals and Fire and Police services in England, UK during the pandemic(ISRCTN5660922). Of these, 2,672 were unselected volunteers recruited irrespective of previous SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results, and 154 others were recruited separately specifically because they previously tested positive. At recruitment in June 2020, we measured numbers of interferon-γ secreting, SARS-CoV-2 responsive T cells using T-SPOT®Discovery SARS-CoV-2 kits (Oxford Immunotec Ltd), and antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 proteins using commercial immunoassays. We then described time to microbiologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, stratified by immunological parameters. Results T cells responsive to the spike (S), nuclear (N) and membrane proteins (M) dominated the responses measured. Using the sum of the spots (responsive cells within each well of 250,000 peripheral blood mononuclear cells) for S, N and M antigens minus the control, the 2,672 unselected participants were divided into those with higher responses (n=669, 25.4%; median 30 spots (IQR 18,54)) and those with low responses (n=2016, 76.7%, median 3 (IQR 1,6)), the cutoff we derived being 12 spots. Of the participants with higher T cell responses, 367 (53%) had detectable antibodies against the N or S proteins. During a median of 118 days follow-up, 20 participants with lower T cell responses developed COVID-19, compared with none in the population with high T cell responses (log-rank test, p=6×10−3). Conclusions Peripheral blood SARS-CoV-2 responsive T cell numbers are associated with risk of developing COVID-19.

BackgroundDried blood spot samples (DBS) provide an alternative sample type to venous blood samples for antibody testing. DBS are used by NHS for diagnosing HCV and by PHE for large scale HIV and Hepatitis C serosurveillance; the applicability of DBS based approaches to SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection is uncertain.ObjectiveTo compare antibody detection in dried blood spot eluates using the Roche Elecsys ® immunoassay (index test) with antibody detection in paired plasma samples, using the same assay (reference test).SettingOne Police and one Fire & Rescue facility in England.Participants195 participants within a larger sample COVID-19 serodiagnostics study of keyworkers, EDSAB-HOME.Outcome MeasuresSensitivity and specificity of DBS (the index test) relative to plasma (the reference test), at an experimental cut-off; quality of DBS sample collected; estimates of relative sensitivity of DBS vs. plasma immunoassay in a larger population.Results18/195 (9.2%) participants tested positive using plasma samples. DBS sample quality varied markedly by phlebotomist, and low sample volume significantly reduced immunoassay signals. Using a cut-off of ten median absolute deviations above the immunoassay result with negative samples, sensitivity and specificity of DBS were 89.0% (95% CI 67.2, 96.9%) and 100.0% (95% CI 97.9, 100%) respectively compared with using plasma. The limit of detection for DBS is about 30 times higher than for plasma.ConclusionDBS use for SARS-CoV-2 serology, though feasible, is insensitive relative to immunoassays on plasma. Sample quality impacts on assay performance. Alternatives, including the collection of capillary blood samples, should be considered for screening programs.

Background Increased incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) attributable to non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) has been reported in several countries following introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 vaccines, concurrently with a reduction in vaccine-type IPD. Such serotype replacement has, importantly, emerged in England, offsetting the benefit of PCV introduction. We scrutinise most recent findings to assess if the estimated increase in NVT disease might result from surveillance artefacts. Methods Using IPD surveillance for 2000-2018, we estimate the impact of PCV7 and PCV13 introduction on age-serotype-specific incidence rates through a synthetic control regression model, building counterfactuals by combining age-specific incidences reported for pathogens unaffected by PCVs. Results Following the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 (pre-2006 vs post-2011), total IPD incidence declined by 57% and by 76% in children younger than 5. PCV7-IPD decreased by 93% in all age groups, whereas PCV13-IPD declined by 68% since PCV13 was introduced. Importantly, NVT-IPD increased by 43% after PCV7, with non-significant statistical increases in most age groups. Conclusions Through appropriate statistical modelling, we disentangled the impact of vaccine and improved surveillance on the changes in IPD incidence rates. By controlling for the confounding effects of improved surveillance, we are able to estimate a lower serotype replacement. Key messages Pneumococcal vaccine has been beneficial despite serotype replacement. Adequate statistical methods are needed to disentangle the two phenomena.

BackgroundHouseholds appear to be the highest risk setting for transmission of COVID-19. Large household transmission studies were reported in the early stages of the pandemic in Asia with secondary attack rates ranging from 5–30% but few large scale household transmission studies have been conducted outside of Asia.MethodsA prospective case ascertained study design based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol was undertaken in the UK following the detection of the first case in late January 2020. Household contacts of cases were followed using enhanced surveillance forms to establish whether they developed symptoms of COVID-19, became confirmed cases and their outcomes. Household secondary attack rates and serial intervals were estimated. Individual and household basic reproduction numbers were also estimated. The incubation period was estimated using known point source exposures that resulted in secondary cases.ResultsA total of 233 households with two or more people were included with a total of 472 contacts. The overall household SAR was 37% (95% CI 31–43%) with a mean serial interval of 4.67 days, an R0 of 1.85 and a household reproduction number of 2.33. We find lower secondary attack rates in larger households. SARs were highest when the primary case was a child. We estimate a mean incubation period of around 4.5 days.ConclusionsHigh rates of household transmission of COVID-19 were found in the UK emphasising the need for preventative measures in this setting. Careful monitoring of schools reopening is needed to monitor transmission from children.

ObjectiveTo measure the association between self-reported signs and symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.DesignCross-sectional study of three key worker groups.SettingSix acute NHS hospitals and two Police and Fire and Rescue sites in England.ParticipantsIndividuals were recruited from three streams: (A) Police and Fire and Rescue services (n = 1147), (B) healthcare workers (n = 1546) and (C) healthcare workers with previously positive virus detection (n = 154).Main outcome measuresDetection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in plasma.Results943 of the 2847 participants (33%) reported belief they had had COVID-19, having experienced compatible symptoms (including 152 from Stream C). Among individuals reporting COVID-19 compatible symptoms, 466 (49%) were seronegative on both Nucleoprotein (Roche) and Spike-protein (EUROIMMUN) antibody assays. However, among the 268 individuals with prior positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, of whom 96% reported symptoms with onset a median of 63 days (IQR 52 – 75 days) prior to venesection, Roche and EUROIMMUN assays had 96.6% (95% CI 93.7% – 98.2%) and 93.3% (95% CI 89.6% – 95.7%) sensitivity respectively. Symptomatic but seronegative individuals had significantly earlier symptom onset dates than the symptomatic seropositive individuals, shorter illness duration and a much lower anosmia reporting frequency.ConclusionsSelf-reported belief of COVID-19 was common among our frontline worker cohort. About half of these individuals were seronegative, despite a high sensitivity of serology in this cohort, at least in individuals with previous positive PCR results. This is compatible with non-COVID-19 respiratory disease during the COVID-19 outbreak having been commonly mistaken for COVID-19 within the key worker cohort studied.What is already known on this topicScreening for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is under way in some key worker groups; however, how this adds to self-reported COVID-19 illness is unclear. There are limited studies that investigate the association between self-reported belief of COVID-19 illness and seropositivity.What this study addsAbout one third of a large cohort of key frontline workers believed they had had COVID-19 infection. In around half of these there was no serological evidence of infection. Individuals who believed they had previous infection, but were seronegative, differed systematically from the seropositive individuals: disordered sense of taste and smell was less common, illness duration was shorter, and reported onset of illness commonly predated the main COVID-19 epidemic in the UK.Although some individuals with previous COVID-19 may be seronegative, among symptomatic individuals who had PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 within our cohort, sensitivity of the two immunoassays used (Roche Elecsys ® and EUROIMMUN) exceeded 90%. Together, these data indicate that many key workers may falsely believe, based on symptomatic illness experienced during 2020, that they have had COVID-19. Further research investigating the relationship between antibody detection and protection from future infection, with and without a history of COVID-19 disease, will help define the role serological testing can play in clinical practice.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract peaks around symptom onset and infectious virus persists for 10 days in mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (n = 324 samples analysed). RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values correlate strongly with cultivable virus. Probability of culturing virus declines to 8% in samples with Ct > 35 and to 6% 10 days after onset; it is similar in asymptomatic and symptomatic persons. Asymptomatic persons represent a source of transmissible virus.

Summary The term metagenomics refers to the use of sequencing methods to simultaneously identify genomic material from all organisms present in a sample, with the advantage of greater taxonomic resolution than culture or other methods. Applications include pathogen detection and discovery, species characterisation, antimicrobial resistance detection, virulence profiling, and study of the microbiome and microecological factors affecting health. However, metagenomics involves complex and multistep processes and there are important technical and methodological challenges that require careful consideration to support valid inference. We co-ordinated a multidisciplinary, international expert group to establish reporting guidelines that address specimen processing, nucleic acid extraction, sequencing platforms, bioinformatics considerations, quality assurance, limits of detection, power and sample size, confirmatory testing, causality criteria, cost, and ethical issues. The guidance recognises that metagenomics research requires pragmatism and caution in interpretation, and that this field is rapidly evolving.

Interest in an aetiopathogenic role for Helicobacter in neuropsychiatric diseases started with idiopathic parkinsonism (IP), where the cardinal signs can be assessed objectively. This systematic review, using an EMBASE database search, addresses Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine based questions on the inter-relationship of Helicobacter and IP, the benefits of eradicating Helicobacter in IP and the outcome of not treating. The search strategy was based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines: 21 of 204 articles met the inclusion criteria. The results show that the assumption that any benefit of Helicobacter eradication results from improved levodopa bioavailability is unjustified. The inter-relationship between Helicobacter and IP is well-established. H. pylori virulence markers (associated with autoimmunity and immune tolerance) influence the risk, severity and progression of IP. The birth cohort effect for virulence marker antibodies, seen in controls, is obliterated in IP, suggesting causality. Successful H. pylori eradication in IP is disease-modifying (even in anti-parkinsonian treatment-naïve patients) but not preventive. Hypokinesia regresses with eradication and overall motor severity lessens. Eradication may influence gastrointestinal microbiota adversely, unlocking the next stage in the natural history, the development of rigidity. Failed eradication worsens hypokinesia, as does the presence/persistence of H. pylori at molecular level only. Adequate prognostic assessment of the consequences of not treating Helicobacter, for IP, is prevented by a short follow-up. We conclude that Helicobacter is a pathophysiological driver of IP.

Depression is associated with constipation within and outside Parkinson&rsquo, s disease (PD). Since inefficient cognitive-processing (bradyphrenia) features in PD and an enterokinetic agent improved cognitive performance in healthy individuals, bradyphrenia may be associated with constipation. We aim to define the archetypical bowel function of PD, and its association with cognition, mood, and motor features within and outside PD. We assessed colonic transit time (oral radio-opaque markers over 6 days), bowel function and psychometric questionnaires and measures of PD facets, including bradyphrenia, in 58 participants with diagnosed PD, and 71 without (controls). The best abdominal X-ray (day 7) predictors of PD status were total retained marker count and transverse colon segmental delay. However, Rome functional constipation status complemented segmental delay better, giving good specificity (85%) but low sensitivity (56%). Transverse colon marker count appeared to be age-associated only in PD. In PD, those correctly classified by bowel dysfunction had higher depression scores (p = 0.02) and longer cognitive-processing times than the misclassified (p = 0.05). Controls misclassified as PD by bowel dysfunction had higher depression and anxiety scores than the correctly classified (p = 0.002 and 0.003, respectively), but not slower cognitive processing. Measures of motor features were independent of sub-classification by bowel function in PD and in controls. In conclusion, constipation in PD has distinct localized pathophysiology, and is associated with bradyphrenia.

Objectives To assess whether resistance estimates obtained from sentinel surveillance for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in community-acquired urinary tract infections (UTIs) differ from routinely collected laboratory community UTI data. Methods All patients aged ≥18 years presenting to four sentinel general practices with a suspected UTI, from 13 November 2017 to 12 February 2018, were asked to provide urine specimens for culture and susceptibility. Specimens were processed at the local diagnostic laboratory. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was conducted using automated methods. We calculated the proportion of Escherichia coli isolates that were non-susceptible (according to contemporaneous EUCAST guidelines) to trimethoprim, nitrofurantoin, cefalexin, ciprofloxacin and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, overall and by age group and sex, and compared this with routine estimates. Results Sentinel practices submitted 740 eligible specimens. The specimen submission rate had increased by 28 specimens per 1000 population per year (95% CI 21–35). Uropathogens were isolated from 23% (169/740) of specimens; 67% were E. coli (113/169). Non-susceptibility of E. coli to trimethoprim was 28.2% (95% CI 20.2–37.7) on sentinel surveillance (33.4%; 95% CI 29.5–37.6 on routine data) and to nitrofurantoin was 0.9% (95% CI 0–5.7) (1.5%; 95% CI 0.7–3.0 on routine data). Conclusions Routine laboratory data resulted in a small overestimation in resistance (although the difference was not statistically significant) and our findings suggest that it provides an adequate estimate of non-susceptibility to key antimicrobials in community-acquired UTIs in England. This study does not support the need for ongoing local sentinel surveillance.

Objectives: Following detection of the first virologically-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Great Britain, an enhanced surveillance study was initiated by Public Health England to describe the clinical presentation, course of disease and identify risk factors for infection of the first few hundred cases. Methods: Information was collected on the first COVID-19 cases according to the First Few X WHO protocol. Case-control analyses of the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of symptoms and risk factors for infection were conducted. Point prevalences of underlying health conditions among the UK general population were presented. Findings: The majority of FF100 cases were imported (51.4%), of which the majority had recent travel to Italy (71.4%). 24.7% were secondary cases acquired mainly through household contact (40.4%). Children had lower odds of COVID-19 infection compared with the general population. The clinical presentation of cases was dominated by cough, fever and fatigue. Non-linear relationships with age were observed for fever, and sensitivity and specificity of symptoms varied by age. Conditions associated with higher odds of COVID-19 infection (after adjusting for age and sex) were chronic heart disease, immunosuppression and multimorbidity. Conclusion: This study presents the first epidemiological and clinical summary of COVID-19 cases in Great Britain. The FFX study design enabled systematic data collection. The study was able to characterize the risk factors for infection with population prevalence estimates setting these relative risks into a public health context. It also provides important evidence for generating case definitions to support public health risk assessment, clinical triage and diagnostic algorithms.

Summary A problem that is frequently encountered in many areas of scientific research is that of estimating the effect of a non-randomized binary intervention on an outcome of interest by using time series data on units that received the intervention (‘treated’) and units that did not (‘controls’). One popular estimation method in this setting is based on the factor analysis (FA) model. The FA model is fitted to the preintervention outcome data on treated units and all the outcome data on control units, and the counterfactual treatment-free post-intervention outcomes of the former are predicted from the fitted model. Intervention effects are estimated as the observed outcomes minus these predicted counterfactual outcomes. We propose a model that extends the FA model for estimating intervention effects by jointly modelling the multiple outcomes to exploit shared variability, and assuming an auto-regressive structure on factors to account for temporal correlations in the outcome. Using simulation studies, we show that the method proposed can improve the precision of the intervention effect estimates and achieve better control of the type I error rate (compared with the FA model), especially when either the number of preintervention measurements or the number of control units is small. We apply our method to estimate the effect of stricter alcohol licensing policies on alcohol-related harms.

Results from monitoring of the microbiological quality of 2,721 samples of ready-to-eat cooked chicken collected between 2013 to 2017 in England were reviewed: 70% of samples were from retail, catering or manufacture and 30% were imported and collected at English ports. Samples were tested for a range of bacterial pathogens and indicator organisms. Six samples (1%) had unsatisfactory levels of pathogens which were potentially injurious to health. Neither Salmonella nor Campylobacter were recovered from any sample. Two samples from catering settings contained either an unsatisfactory level of Bacillus cereus (5 x 10 6 CFU/g) or an unsatisfactory level of coagulase positive staphylococci (1.6 x 10 4 CFU/g). Listeria monocytogenes was recovered from 36 samples (one at manufacture, 26 at catering and nine at retail) and in four instances, unsatisfactory levels (≥10 2 CFU/g) were detected (three samples collected at catering and one at retail). For L. monocytogenes there were no significant differences between the rates of contamination with between the samples collected from ports, manufacture, retail supermarkets and other retailers (p = 0.288). There were no differences between the rates of contamination for other potential pathogens detected between samples from different settings. The prevalence of hygiene indicators ( Escherichia coli , Enterobacteriaceae and Aerobic Colony Counts) at import was significantly lower than in samples collected from manufacturers, retail or catering (p0.01). Samples collected from catering gave poorer results than all other settings. Regardless of the stage in the food chain, samples from Thailand and from other non-EU countries were of significantly better microbiological quality with respect to indicator organisms than those from the UK or from other EU countries (p =0.001).

Background The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE) have successfully worked together on the surveillance of influenza and other infectious diseases for over 50 years, including three previous pandemics. With the emergence of the international outbreak of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19), a UK national approach to containment has been established to test people suspected of exposure to COVID-19. At the same time and separately, the RCGP RSC’s surveillance has been extended to monitor the temporal and geographical distribution of COVID-19 infection in the community as well as assess the effectiveness of the containment strategy. Objectives The aims of this study are to surveil COVID-19 in both asymptomatic populations and ambulatory cases with respiratory infections, ascertain both the rate and pattern of COVID-19 spread, and assess the effectiveness of the containment policy. Methods The RCGP RSC, a network of over 500 general practices in England, extract pseudonymized data weekly. This extended surveillance comprises of five components: (1) Recording in medical records of anyone suspected to have or who has been exposed to COVID-19. Computerized medical records suppliers have within a week of request created new codes to support this. (2) Extension of current virological surveillance and testing people with influenza-like illness or lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI)—with the caveat that people suspected to have or who have been exposed to COVID-19 should be referred to the national containment pathway and not seen in primary care. (3) Serology sample collection across all age groups. This will be an extra blood sample taken from people who are attending their general practice for a scheduled blood test. The 100 general practices currently undertaking annual influenza virology surveillance will be involved in the extended virological and serological surveillance. (4) Collecting convalescent serum samples. (5) Data curation. We have the opportunity to escalate the data extraction to twice weekly if needed. Swabs and sera will be analyzed in PHE reference laboratories. Results General practice clinical system providers have introduced an emergency new set of clinical codes to support COVID-19 surveillance. Additionally, practices participating in current virology surveillance are now taking samples for COVID-19 surveillance from low-risk patients presenting with LRTIs. Within the first 2 weeks of setup of this surveillance, we have identified 3 cases: 1 through the new coding system, the other 2 through the extended virology sampling. Conclusions We have rapidly converted the established national RCGP RSC influenza surveillance system into one that can test the effectiveness of the COVID-19 containment policy. The extended surveillance has already seen the use of new codes with 3 cases reported. Rapid sharing of this protocol should enable scientific critique and shared learning. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/18606

Background Since the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Public Health England have developed a suite of real-time statistical models utilising enhanced pandemic surveillance data to nowcast and forecast a future pandemic. Their ability to track seasonal influenza and predict heightened winter healthcare burden in the light of high activity in Australia in 2017 was untested. Methods Four transmission models were used in forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England: a stratified primary care model using daily, region-specific, counts and virological swab positivity of influenza-like illness consultations in general practice (GP); a strain-specific (SS) model using weekly, national GP ILI and virological data; an intensive care model (ICU) using reports of ICU influenza admissions; and a synthesis model that included all data sources. For the first 12 weeks of 2018, each model was applied to the latest data to provide estimates of epidemic parameters and short-term influenza forecasts. The added value of pre-season population susceptibility data was explored. Results The combined results provided valuable nowcasts of the state of the epidemic. Short-term predictions of burden on primary and secondary health services were initially highly variable before reaching consensus beyond the observed peaks in activity between weeks 3–4 of 2018. Estimates for R0 were consistent over time for three of the four models until week 12 of 2018, and there was consistency in the estimation of R0 across the SPC and SS models, and in the ICU attack rates estimated by the ICU and the synthesis model. Estimation and predictions varied according to the assumed levels of pre-season immunity. Conclusions This exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable.

For outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease, rapid identification of the source is crucial to enable public health intervention and prevent further cases. Outbreak investigation comprises analyses of exposure information from cases and, if required, undertaking analytical epidemiological studies. Hypothesis generation has been reliant on empirical knowledge of exposures historically associated with a given pathogen. Epidemiology studies are resource-intensive and prone to bias, one of the reasons being the difficulties in recruiting appropriate controls. For this paper, the information from cases was compared against pre-defined background exposure information. As exemplars, three past outbreaks were used, one of common and two of rare exposures. Information from historical case trawling questionnaires was used to define background exposure having removed any exposures implicated with the outbreak. The case-background approach showed good sensitivity and specificity, identifying correctly all outbreak-related exposures. One additional exposure related to a retailer was identified and four food items where all cases had been exposed. In conclusion, the case-background method, a development of the case-case design, can be used to assist with hypothesis generation or when a case-control study may not be possible to carry out.

Background Health care planners need to predict demand for hospital beds to avoid deterioration in health care. Seasonal demand can be affected by respiratory illnesses which in England are monitored using syndromic surveillance systems. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between syndromic data and daily emergency hospital admissions. Methods We compared the timing of peaks in syndromic respiratory indicators and emergency hospital admissions, between 2013 and 2018. Furthermore, we created forecasts for daily admissions and investigated their accuracy when real-time syndromic data were included. Results We found that syndromic indicators were sensitive to changes in the timing of peaks in seasonal disease, especially influenza. However, each year, peak demand for hospital beds occurred on either 29th or 30th December, irrespective of the timing of syndromic peaks. Most forecast models using syndromic indicators explained over 70% of the seasonal variation in admissions (adjusted R square value). Forecast errors were reduced when syndromic data were included. For example, peak admissions for December 2014 and 2017 were underestimated when syndromic data were not used in models. Conclusion Due to the lack of variability in the timing of the highest seasonal peak in hospital admissions, syndromic surveillance data do not provide additional early warning of timing. However, during atypical seasons syndromic data did improve the accuracy of forecast intensity.

Introduction One of the leading challenges in the 2013–2016 West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak was how best to quickly identify patients with EVD, separating them from those without the disease, in order to maximise limited isolation bed capacity and keep health systems functioning. Methodology We performed a systematic literature review to identify all published data on EVD clinical symptoms in adult patients. Data was dual extracted, and random effects meta-analysis performed for each symptom to identify symptoms with the greatest risk for EVD infection. Results Symptoms usually presenting late in illness that were more than twice as likely to predict a diagnosis of Ebola, were confusion (pOR 3.04, 95% CI 2.18–4.23), conjunctivitis (2.90, 1.92–4.38), dysphagia (1.95, 1.13–3.35) and jaundice (1.86, 1.20–2.88). Early non-specific symptoms of diarrhoea (2.99, 2.00–4.48), fatigue (2.77, 1.59–4.81), vomiting (2.69, 1.76–4.10), fever (1.97, 1.10–4.52), muscle pain (1.65, 1.04–2.61), and cough (1.63, 1.24–2.14), were also strongly associated with EVD diagnosis. Conclusions The existing literature fails to provide a unified position on the symptoms most predictive of EVD, but highlights some early and late stage symptoms that in combination will be useful for future risk stratification. Confirmation of these findings across datasets (or ideally an aggregation of all individual patient data) will aid effective future clinical assessment, risk stratification tools and emergency epidemic response planning., Author summary Ebola is a rare but deadly virus, found mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. People can get it through direct contact with an infected animal (bat or nonhuman primate) or a sick or dead person infected with Ebola virus. The virus can cause a host of different symptoms that overlap with many other diseases, making diagnosis a challenge for doctors, particularly with a lack of available rapid diagnostic tests or laboratory facilities. This meta-analysis of predictive symptoms for Ebola virus shows that patients initially presenting with symptoms usually found late in illness, including confusion, conjunctivitis, dysphagia and jaundice were significantly more likely to end up with a diagnosis of Ebola. Early symptoms (typically not thought to be specific to Ebola), including diarrhoea, fatigue, vomiting, fever, muscle pain and cough were also found to be more predictive of a diagnosis of Ebola virus. The existing literature fails to provide a unified position on the symptoms most predictive of Ebola. Confirmation of our findings will aid effective future clinical assessment, risk stratification tools and emergency epidemic response planning.

ObjectivesHaemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) following Shiga toxin-producingEscherichia coli(STEC) infection is the the most common cause of acute renal failure among children in the UK. This study explored differential progression from STEC to HUS by social, demographic and clinical risk factors.MethodsWe undertook a retrospective cohort study linking two datasets. We extracted data on paediatric STEC and HUS cases identified in the Public Health England National Enhanced Surveillance System for STEC and British Paediatric Surveillance Unit HUS surveillance from 1 October 2011 to 31 October 2014. Using logistic regression, we estimated the odds of HUS progression by risk factors.Results1059 paediatric STEC cases were included in the study, of which 207 (19.55%, 95% CI 17% to 22%) developed HUS. In the fully adjusted model, the odds of progression to HUS were highest in those aged 1–4 years (OR 4.93, 95% CI 2.30 to 10.56, compared with 10–15 years), were infected with an Shiga toxin (stx)2-only strain (OR 5.92, 95% CI 2.49 to 14.10), were prescribed antibiotics (OR 8.46, 95% CI 4.71 to 15.18) and had bloody diarrhoea (OR 3.56, 95% CI 2.04 to 6.24) or vomiting (OR 4.47, 95% CI 2.62 to 7.63), but there was no association with progression to HUS by socioeconomic circumstances or rurality.ConclusionCombining data from an active clinical surveillance system for HUS with the national enhanced STEC surveillance system suggests that 20% of diagnosed paediatric STEC infections in England resulted in HUS. No relationship was found with socioeconomic status or rurality of cases, but differences were demonstrated by age,stxtype and presenting symptoms.

Background Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral–bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups. Methods and findings We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t−1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%–39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%–63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15–44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%–28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%–9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%–3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%–3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates. Conclusions Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups., Using surveillance data from England between 2009 and 2017, Chiara Chiavenna and colleagues estimate the contribution of influenza infection on invasive pneumococcal disease., Author summary Why was this study done? Since the deadly 1918 Spanish flu, pandemic preparedness has been crucial for many governments: in the United Kingdom, a pandemic is high on the government's national risk register of civil emergencies [1]. Previous research has shed light on the central role of secondary bacterial infections, suggesting a synergistic interplay of influenza virus and S. pneumoniae, a bacterium that infects the lungs. Quantifying the magnitude of such interaction at the population level is of central importance to inform public health policy: in England, current decision-making on required sizes of an antibiotic stockpile for use in a future pandemic lacks scientific evidence. What did the researchers do and find? We analysed routinely collected population-level counts of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases. We decomposed the incidence of IPD in terms of endemic pneumococcal circulation, a seasonal contribution, and an influenza-driven component. We proposed a novel multivariate age-stratified modelling framework to assess the contribution of influenza across seasons and age groups. What do these findings mean? We found that influenza played a more important role towards explaining IPD during the 2009 pandemic than during seasonal epidemics. This role was particularly prominent in school-age children. These results are valuable to quantify the possible contribution of influenza to the burden of IPD in a future pandemic of influenza with similar characteristics to the 2009 pandemic.

Aims To investigate the microbiological quality of imported fresh leaves on retail sale during 2017 with respect to Salmonella, Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and levels of E. coli. Methods and results Two hundred and seventy-nine samples of imported edible leaves (69 banana, 77 betel, 118 curry and 15 other types) were tested. Salmonella spp. were confirmed by whole-genome sequencing and isolated from 44 samples, 26% from curry leaves, 14% from betel and 2·4% from all other leaf types: 80% of all samples contained ≥102 , 44% ≥103 and 22% ≥104 CFU of E. coli CFU per g. All samples where Salmonella were detected also yielded ≥20 CFU of E. coli/g. 54 samples were tested for STEC which was detected in six samples and isolated from three: one was identified as STEC O157:H7. Conclusions This report further highlights an ongoing problem of Salmonella contamination of imported fresh edible leaves. Significance and impact of the study Among all food tested by Public Health England (approximately 11 000 per annum), curry leaves were the herb most commonly contaminated with Salmonella, and betel leaves were the most commonly contaminated ready-to-eat food. The high proportion with unsatisfactory E. coli levels and the detection of STEC suggests risks of contamination by multiple enteric pathogens.

SummaryRecent cases of acute kidney injury due to Seoul hantavirus infection from exposure to wild or pet fancy rats suggest this infection is increasing in prevalence in the UK. We conducted a seroprevalence study in England to estimate cumulative exposure in at-risk groups with contact with domesticated and wild rats to assess risk and inform public health advice. From October 2013 to June 2014, 844 individual blood samples were collected. Hantavirus seroprevalence amongst the pet fancy rat owner group was 34.1% (95% CI 23·9–45·7%) compared with 3·3% (95% CI 1·6–6·0) in a baseline control group, 2·4% in those with occupational exposure to pet fancy rats (95% CI 0·6–5·9) and 1·7% with occupational exposure to wild rats (95% CI 0·2–5·9). Variation in seroprevalence across groups with different exposure suggests that occupational exposure to pet and wild rats carries a very low risk, if any. However incidence of hantavirus infection among pet fancy rat owners/breeders, whether asymptomatic, undiagnosed mild viral illness or more severe disease may be very common and public health advice needs to be targeted to this at-risk group.

INTRODUCTION We present the long-term outcome of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) at a District General Hospital set against the increasing numbers of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). METHODS Data were collected prospectively over 37 years. Comparison of GORD without Barrett's (NoBO) versus BO was performed from 1/1/1977 to 31/12/2001 when the NoBO database closed and outcomes of all cases of BO diagnosed until 31/12/2011 and followed up until 31/12/2013 have been reported. RESULTS During the period 1977-2001 the number of GORD NoBO cases was 11 610, and that of BO cases was 764 (6.2% of all GORD); total number of BO cases in 1977-2011 was 1468. NoBO patients were younger than BO patients: 52.2 versus 61.6 years. There was a male predominance in both groups: NoBO 55% and BO 62% (P

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection can cause serious illness including haemolytic uraemic syndrome. The role of socio-economic status (SES) in differential clinical presentation and exposure to potential risk factors amongst STEC cases has not previously been reported in England. We conducted an observational study using a dataset of all STEC cases identified in England, 2010–2015. Odds ratios for clinical characteristics of cases and foodborne, waterborne and environmental risk factors were estimated using logistic regression, stratified by SES, adjusting for baseline demographic factors. Incidence was higher in the highest SES group compared to the lowest (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19–2.00). Odds of Accident and Emergency attendance (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10–1.75) and hospitalisation (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.36–2.15) because of illness were higher in the most disadvantaged compared to the least, suggesting potential lower ascertainment of milder cases or delayed care-seeking behaviour in disadvantaged groups. Advantaged individuals were significantly more likely to report salad/fruit/vegetable/herb consumption (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.16–2.17), non-UK or UK travel (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.40–2.27; OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.35–2.56) and environmental exposures (walking in a paddock, OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.22–2.70; soil contact, OR 1.52, 95% CI 2.13–1.09) suggesting other unmeasured risks, such as person-to-person transmission, could be more important in the most disadvantaged group.

Background Peer support can enable patient engagement with healthcare services, particularly for marginalised populations. In this randomised controlled trial, the efficacy of a peer support intervention at promoting successful engagement with clinical services for chronic hepatitis C was assessed. Methods In London, UK, potential participants were approached through outreach services for problematic drug use and homelessness. Individuals positive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) after confirmatory testing were randomised using an online service to the intervention (peer support) or standard of care. The primary outcome of interest was successful engagement with clinical hepatitis services. The study was non-blinded. Absolute differences were calculated using a generalised linear model and the results compared to logistic regression. Results Three hundred sixty-four individuals consented to participate. One hundred one had chronic hepatitis C and were randomised, 63 to receive the intervention (peer support). A successful outcome was achieved by 23 individuals in this arm (36.5%) and seven (18.4%) receiving the standard of care, giving an absolute increase of 18.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0–35.2%, p value = 0.04). This was mirrored in the logistic regression (odds ratio 2.55 (0.97–6.70), p = 0.06). No serious adverse events were reported. Conclusions Peer support can improve the engagement of patients with chronic HCV with healthcare services. Trial registration ISRCTN24707359. Registered 19th October 2012. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1300-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R0, they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune R0 is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has privilege over least squares. We obtained the appropriate posterior distributions of parameters and the estimate of R0 ranges from 1.38 to 2.89, indicating a critical immunity of 65%. The reduction in critical immunity and outbreak probabilities predicts the absence of outbreaks in Australian MSMs since 1996. Our study shows the importance of using appropriate methods to provide reliable and accurate estimates of the model parameters especially the transmissibility.