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During a biological invasion, we expect that the expanding front will increasingly become dominated by individuals with better dispersal abilities. Over many generations, selection at the invasion front thus will favour traits that increase dispersal rates. As a result of this process, cane toads (Bufo marinus) are now spreading through tropical Australia about 5-fold faster than in the early years of toad invasion; but how have toads changed to make this happen? Here we present data from radio-tracking of free-ranging cane toads from three populations (spanning a 15-year period of the toads’ Australian invasion, and across 1800 km). Our data reveal dramatic shifts in behavioural traits (proportion of nights when toads move from their existing retreat-site to a new one, and distance between those successive retreat-sites) associated with the rapid acceleration of toad invasion. Over a maximum period of 70 years (~50 generations), cane toads at the invasion front in Australia apparently have evolved such that populations include a higher proportion of individuals that make long, straight moves.

An ability to predict the rate at which an organism spreads its range is of growing importance because the process of spread (during invasion by an exotic species) is almost identical to that occurring at the expanding range margins of a native species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. Thus, the methods used for modelling range spread can also be employed to assess the distributional implications of climate change. Here we review the history of research on the spread of cane toads in Australia and use this case study to broadly examine the benefits and pitfalls of various modelling approaches. We show that the problems of estimating the current range, predicting the future range, and predicting the spread rate are interconnected and inform each other. Generally, we argue that correlative approaches to range-prediction are unsuitable when applied to invasive species and suggest that mechanistic methods are beginning to look promising (despite being more difficult to execute), although robust comparisons of correlative versus mechanistic predictions are lacking. Looking to the future, we argue that mechanistic models of range advance (drawing from both population ecology and environmental variation) are the approaches most likely to yield robust predictions. The complexity of these approaches coupled with the steady rise in computing power means that they have only recently become computationally tractable. Thus, we suggest that the field is only recently in a position to incorporate the complexity necessary to robustly model the rate at which species shift their range.

Cane toads (Bufo marinus) are large anurans (weighing up to 2 kg) that were introduced to Australia 70 years ago to control insect pests in sugar-cane fields. But the result has been disastrous because the toads are toxic and highly invasive. Here we show that the annual rate of progress of the toad invasion front has increased about fivefold since the toads first arrived; we find that toads with longer legs can not only move faster and are the first to arrive in new areas, but also that those at the front have longer legs than toads in older (long-established) populations. The disaster looks set to turn into an ecological nightmare because of the negative effects invasive species can have on native ecosystems; over many generations, rates of invasion will be accelerated owing to rapid adaptive change in the invader, with continual 'spatial selection' at the expanding front favouring traits that increase the toads' dispersal.