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Agroecosystems can become contaminated by atmospherically released radionuclides. The subsequent concentrations of radionuclides in foods are dependent on numerous environmental, physiological, and management factors. We compared four approaches for estimating the relative importance of several of these factors in determining concentrations of 1 3 1 I and 1 3 7 Cs in milk. A series of sensitivity analyses with Monte Carlo and full-factorial sampling designs was conducted on the PATHWAY model, which simulates radionuclide transport through an agroecosystem. Sensitivity of time-integrated concentrations in milk was estimated as a function of the time of year that fallout was deposited and as a function of time following a spring deposition. The dominant parameters affecting time-integrated concentrations of 1 3 1 I in milk were the initial fraction of radionuclides deposited on vegetation, timing and amount of pasture consumption, and the production rate of milk. For time-integrated concentrations of the longer-lived 1 3 7 Cs in milk, resuspension was a dominant parameter and pasture use was less important. The sampling designs were compared by ranking the parameters to which the model output is sensitive. The three sampling designs based on parameter variances produced sets of ranks that were similar to each other but differed from the ranking produced by the sampling design based on parameter magnitude. The results indicate which data are most crucial for real-time calculations following an accident and how subsequent dose from ingestion can be most effectively reduced, provide insight into model behavior, and help prioritize future research. This paper demonstrates the importance of variance-based sensitivity analysis., (© 1992 by the Ecological Society of America.)

This paper describes the structure of the dynamic food-chain model PATHWAY and its utility for estimating radionuclide ingestion after fallout deposition from nuclear testing in Nevada. Model input requirements are described and output examples are provided. The basic output of PATHWAY is the time-integrated radionuclide ingestion by humans per unit fallout deposition (Bq per Bq m-2). Output specific to sex, age, life-style (diet), location (agricultural practice), event (calendar date), and radionuclide may be generated. Uncertainties of model predictions, based on "Monte Carlo" simulations using parameter value distributions, are described. Results of a sensitivity analysis, based on a ranking of partial correlation coefficients, are reviewed to illustrate the relative importance of parameters and associated transport pathways. Output data for 131I and 137Cs in milk are compared with predictions from several well known food-chain models. Preliminary efforts to validate PATHWAY results with real data sets are described.

Genetic variability at 36 loci was studied in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, on the Savannah River Plant (SRP) in South Carolina. Mean multilocus heterozygosity (H), percentage of polymorphic loci (P) and average number of alleles per locus (A) for white-tailed deer were calculated and compared with values for white-tailed deer from several locations (SRP deer: H = 9.9 per cent, P0.05 = 30.6 per cent, A = 1.89; white-tailed deer overall: H = 10.4 per cent, P0.05 = 32.3 per cent, A = 1.94). Frequency distributions for single locus heterozygosity values (h) and the number of alleles per locus for white-tailed deer were found to be significantly different from those of mammals in general. Analysis of single-locus data based on quaternary structure and functional groups of proteins failed to demonstrate expected differences as predicted from the literature. White-tailed deer have a high level of heterozygosity, but they do not exhibit many of the life history and environmental characteristics associated with high heterozygosity in other animals.

Uncertainty in predictions from the PATHWAY food-chain model was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty estimates, measured by the geometric standard deviation (GSD), were obtained for median values of time-integrated concentrations of 131I, 136Cs, and 137Cs in foods and for the corresponding time-integrated intakes resulting from ingestion of all foods. The GSDs associated with a given food for the two short-lived radionuclides, 131I and 136Cs, were not significantly different, but they differed from the GSDs for the longer-lived radionuclide. The GSDs for integrated concentrations of radionuclides in milk varied with the time of year fallout was deposited, but uncertainty for nondairy products was relatively independent of the date of fallout deposition. The estimated GSDs were applied to other radionuclides of interest based on physical half-life and ranged from 1.7 to 2.7 for time-integrated intake across all foods for radionuclides with physical half-lives less than 30 d, from 1.8 to 2.3 for half-lives ranging from 30 to 500 d, and from 1.9 to 2.1 when half-lives were greater than 500 d.