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Forestry – including afforestation (the planting of trees on land where they have not recently existed), reforestation, avoided deforestation, and forest management – can lead to increased sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. However, forestry also influences land-surface properties, including albedo (the fraction of incident sunlight reflected back to space), surface roughness, and evapotranspiration, all of which affect the amount and forms of energy transfer to the atmosphere. In some circumstances, these biophysical feedbacks can result in local climate warming, thereby counteracting the effects of carbon sequestration on global mean temperature and reducing or eliminating the net value of climate-change mitigation projects. Here, we review published and emerging research that suggests ways in which forestry projects can counteract the consequences associated with biophysical interactions, and highlight knowledge gaps in managing forests for climate protection. We also outline several ways in which biophysical effects can be incorporated into frameworks that use the maintenance of forests as a climate protection strategy.

Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earths top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated., Author(s): Patrick T. Brown (corresponding author) [1]; Ken Caldeira [1] Many relevant impacts of global climate change are expected to scale with the change in global mean surface air temperature [...]

In this commentary, we provide additional context for Ocko and Hamburg (2022) related to the climate consequences of replacing fossil fuels with clean hydrogen alternatives. We first provide a tutorial for the derivations of underlying differential equations that describe the radiative forcing of hydrogen emissions, which differ slightly from equations relied on by previous studies. Ocko and Hamburg (2022) defined a metric based on time-integrated radiative forcing from continuous emissions. To complement their analysis, we further present results for temperature and radiative forcing over the next centuries for unit pulse and continuous emissions scenarios. Our results are qualitatively consistent with previous studies, including Ocko and Hamburg (2022). Our results clearly show that for the same quantity of emissions, hydrogen shows a consistently smaller climate impact than methane. As with other short-lived species, the radiative forcing from a continuous emission of hydrogen is proportional to emission rates, whereas the radiative forcing from a continuous emission of carbon dioxide is closely related to cumulative emissions. After a cessation of hydrogen emissions, the Earth cools rapidly, whereas after a cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth continues to warm somewhat and remains warm for many centuries. Regardless, our results support the conclusion of Ocko and Hamburg (2022) that, if methane were a feedstock for hydrogen production, any possible near-term consequences will depend primarily on methane leakage and secondarily on hydrogen leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately one-quarter of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere each year is absorbed by the global oceans, causing measurable declines in surface ocean pH, carbonate ion concentration ([C[O.sub.3.sup.2-]), [...]

In this commentary, we provide additional context for Ocko and Hamburg (2022) related to the climate consequences of replacing fossil fuels with clean hydrogen alternatives. To develop a better understanding of the climate impact from atmospheric hydrogen additions, we first provide a step-by-step tutorial for the derivations of underlying differential equations that describe radiative forcing of hydrogen emissions, which differ slightly from equations relied on by previous studies. Ocko and Hamburg (2022) used a time-integrated metric on radiative forcing and considered a continuous emission scenario, while we present both the time-evolving radiative forcing and global mean temperature response results under a unit pulse and continuous emissions scenarios. Our analysis covers timescales of 500 years and results on short-term timescales (e.g., 20 years) are qualitatively consistent with previous studies. Some qualitative results are clear: radiative forcing from hydrogen emission is smaller compared to the same quantity of methane emission, both of which decay with time and show less long-term influence than carbon dioxide. On the time scale of a few decades, the radiative forcing from a continuous emission of hydrogen or methane is proportional to emission rates, whereas the radiative forcing from a continuous emission of carbon dioxide is closely related to cumulative emissions. After a cessation of clean hydrogen consumption, the earth cools rapidly, whereas after a cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, the earth continues to warm somewhat and remains warm for many centuries. These longer-term differences may be important to consider in a policy context. Hydrogen leakage has the potential to reduce near-term climate benefits of hydrogen use, but methane is likely to play a more substantial role. In our analysis, consideration of methane emission associated with fossil fuel combustion is a critical factor for determining the relative short-term climate benefits of clean hydrogen alternatives. In the main cases, consideration of methane leakage substantially increases the climate impacts of fossil fuels and could result in net climate benefits for blue hydrogen even in the near-term. Regardless, our results support the conclusion of Ocko and Hamburg (2022) that, if methane were a feedstock for hydrogen production, any possible near-term consequences will depend critically on the issue of methane leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]