51. ABC 2 -SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores.
- Author
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Marcolino MS, Pires MC, Ramos LEF, Silva RT, Oliveira LM, Carvalho RLR, Mourato RLS, Sánchez-Montalvá A, Raventós B, Anschau F, Chatkin JM, Nogueira MCA, Guimarães-Júnior MH, Vietta GG, Duani H, Ponce D, Ziegelmann PK, Castro LC, Ruschel KB, Cimini CCR, Francisco SC, Floriani MA, Nascimento GF, Farace BL, Monteiro LS, Souza-Silva MVR, Sales TLS, Martins KPMP, Borges do Nascimento IJ, Fereguetti TO, Ferrara DTMO, Botoni FA, Etges APBS, Schwarzbold AV, Maurílio AO, Scotton ALBA, Weber AP, Costa ASM, Glaeser AB, Madureira AAC, Bhering AR, de Castro BM, da Silva CTCA, Ramos CM, Gomes CD, de Carvalho CA, Silveira DV, Cezar E, Pereira EC, Kroger EMS, Vallt FB, Lucas FB, Aranha FG, Bartolazzi F, Crestani GP, Bastos GAN, Madeira GCC, Noal HC, Vianna HR, Guimarães HC, Gomes IM, Molina I, Batista JDL, de Alvarenga JC, Guimarães JDSS, de Morais JDP, Rugolo JM, Pontes KCJR, Dos Santos KAM, de Oliveira LS, Pinheiro LS, Pacheco LS, Sousa LD, Couto LSF, Kopittke L, de Moura LCS, Santos LEA, Cabral MAS, Souza MD, Tofani MGT, Carneiro M, Ferreira MAP, Bicalho MAC, Lima MCPB, Godoy MF, Cardoso MMA, Figueiredo MP, Sampaio NCS, Rangel NL, Crespo NT, de Oliveira NR, Assaf PL, Martelli PJL, Almeida RSC, Martins RC, Lutkmeier R, Valacio RA, Finger RG, Cardoso RB, Pozza R, Campos RX, Menezes RM, de Abreu RM, Silva RF, Guimarães SMM, Araújo SF, Pereira SA, Oliveira TF, Kurtz T, de Oliveira TC, Araújo TSMA, Diniz THO, Dos Santos VB, Gomes VMR, do Vale VAL, Ramires YC, Boersma E, and Polanczyk CA more...
- Subjects
- Aged, Hospital Mortality, Hospitalization, Humans, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19
- Abstract
Objectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones., Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients., Results: Median (25-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO
2 /FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829-0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833-0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870-0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/)., Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.) more...- Published
- 2021
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