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La derrota del candidato socialista Salvador Allende (28,9%) ante el derechista Jorge Alessandri (31,6%) en la elección presidencial de 1958 en Chile ha sido atribuida a la presencia de un candidato izquierdista alternativo, el excura de Catapilco, Antonio Zamorano (3,3%). El argumento es que, de no haber competido, Salvador Allende habría ganado la primera mayoría relativa y la presidencia. Después de revisar el contexto de la elección presidencial de 1958 y la fuerza electoral creciente de la izquierda, presentamos la historia política del Cura de Catapilco. Con herramientas estadísticas descriptivas e inferenciales en el ámbito de votación comunal, no encontramos evidencia de que Antonio Zamorano le haya hecho más daño electoral a Salvador Allende que a Jorge Alessandri. La votación de Antonio Zamorano parece haber provenido por igual de las bases electorales de todos los otros candidatos presidenciales. Concluimos que no hay evidencia para sostener que su candidatura evitó la victoria de Salvador Allende en 1958. The defeat of socialist candidate Salvador Allende (28.9%) to rightwing candidate Jorge Alessandri in the 1958 presidential election in Chile has been explained by the presence of an alternative leftwing candidate, the defrocked priest from Catapilco, Antonio Zamorano (3.3%). The belief is that, had Zamorano not entered the race, Allende would have won the first plurality and would have become President. After discussing the context of the 1958 presidential election and the growing electoral strength of the left, we briefly discuss the political trajectory of the Priest of Catapilco. With descriptive and inferential statistics at the municipal level, we fail to find conclusive evidence that Zamorano's support affected Allende more than Alessandri. Zamorano's support seemed to have come equally from the electoral bases of all other presidential candidates. There is no evidence to substantiate the claim that Zamorano was responsible for Allende's defeat in 1958.

The article studies the key approaches to understanding the reputation of one of the key subjects of the political process, i.e. of a political party. The Ukrainian society currently has a growing demand for the reputation of political parties. The author emphasizes that the most citizens of Ukraine choose apolitical party not by their political programs, but rather by their images created by the mass media. There is a solid tendency, that results of the elections depend on the reputation of a political party, which may serve as a guarantor of social stability of the society in general. That is why mass consciousness has a growingly fixed vision of reputation as a certain value, the existence of which determined the success of a political force.The author stresses that certain aspect of the concept of “reputation” have already been studied, primarily in the political leadership theory and during the studies of images of political leaders. The understanding of a reputation has been personalized since ancient times. That is why, the article highlights and explains the personalized approach to this phenomenon. The article shows that Confucius, Laozi, Protagoras, Plato, Titus Livy, Plutarch, N. Machiavelli and others have determined a direct dependency between the welfare of whole nations and the correspondence of the ruler to a certain “ideal image”, which consisted of a number of moral and ethical qualities.It has been determined that, unlike the reputation of a political party, the study of personal reputation is explained by a considerably late appearance of actual political parties. At the start of the process, we may remember the socalled movement of “The Populares” – a sociopolitical coalition, which started to form soon after the end of the second Punic war (218-201 BC). The first prototypes of modern political parties appear only during the periods of bourgeois revolutions and the appearance of parliamentary forms of fighting for power. The concrete examples may be the 16701680-s in England (Tory and Whigs); the 1780-1790-s in France (Jacobins and Girondins). The first parties of a modern type appear in the first half of the 19th century. On the basis of this, a conclusion is drawn that due to objective reasons, namely, the time of party formation, there is a longer history of studying the reputation of a person.The author notes that the concept of a “reputation of a political party” is not used as a fixed term in modern political science. It is rather used in association with such terms as “brand”, “image”, “cognitive image”. At the same time, image and reputation have different purposes – image is aimed exclusively at the consumer of services whereas reputation is aimed at consumers, employees, partners, society etc. The author substantiates that personal reputation (reputation of the leader of a political party) is connected to the reputation of a political party in general. This may be seen on the examples of modern “personalized” political parties of Ukraine. Unlike the image, reputation must be suited in the context of personality, an actual living person as it may not exist separately from its bearer.In the context of understanding the reputation of a political party, the practical contents of the concept of “sustainability of electoral preferences” is revealed. It has been determined that the shift of the reputation of a certain political party may objectively influence the shift of electoral preferences. This, in turn, may signify that a sustainable reputation of apolitical party is a certain guarantee of the sustainability of electoral preferences.The author uses various approaches – economic, legal, sociological, communicative, systemic, socio-philosophic – to reputation analysis. In general, the study concludes that reputation of a political party must be viewed as a phenomenon of public opinion, evaluation of moral, business and professional qualities of the members of a certain party. It should be viewed as a non-material resource or a non-material assets of a political organization.

The article presents the analysis of regional features of populist rhetoric realization as the basis of electorate mobilization. The motivational characteristics of electoral preferences are established, the strategy of populist policy in the Russian Federation is determined. The populist rhetoric defines policy as moral and ethical fight between the people and oligarchy. In electoral political space of modern Russia populism is considered in a negative connotation, it has manipulative impact on public consciousness of Russians, it forms political expectations and electoral preferences. In the analysis of regional electoral process it is necessary to consider a phenomenon of patronclient relations being a factor of electoral preferences which ensures the platform for forming the relations of domination, supremacy and subordination. In Russian electoral political space there are patriarchal, traditional, client-oriented, protest and marginal types of electoral behavior. The patriarchal (Republics of the North Caucasus, Siberia) and traditional (Saint Petersburg, Belgorod region) types create the conditions for populism use as it is easier for populists to win electorate of the senior generation which are committed to traditional values and customs. The political behavior of electorate is characterized by orientation to populist slogans of political leaders which are addressed to the axiological and emotional sphere. Expectations of the median Russian voter stipulate the tendency towards the perception of populism. The populist policy testifies to weakness of democratic institutes and deconsolidation of the public in an assessment of heuristic potential of populism. Populism in modern Russia is not articulated yet, and it does not represent complete ideology or the developed type of subjectivity. This phenomenon is often identified with the national will.

В статье представлены сведения об изменениях политических ориентаций современной молодежи Екатеринбурга в 2015-2016 гг. Показано, насколько политика интересна представителям молодого поколения. Охарактеризована степень поддержки молодежью Екатеринбурга деятельности руководства их города, Свердловской области и России. Описан уровень политического доверия молодых людей по отношению к местным, региональным и федеральным властям. Приведены данные об электоральной активности и предпочтениях екатеринбургской молодежи, в том числе относящиеся к выборам 2016 г. The article presents the data about the changing of modern Yekaterinburg youth political orientations in 2015-2016. The level of young generation representatives interesting to politics is showed. The Yekaterinburg youth supporting degree of their city, Sverdlovsk region and Russia guidance activity is characterized. The level of the young people political credibility to the local, regional and federal authorities is described. The data about Yekaterinburg youth electoral activeness and preferences, including the data concerning to the 2016 election, are presented.

The contemporary world has witnessed technological advances, such as Online Social Networks (OSN), whose influence in almost every action of the human being is remarkable. Among the human activities most significantly impacted by OSNs are: entertainment, human relationships, education, and political activities, including those related to electoral campaigns and electoral preferences prediction. The research contribution of the current paper regards the usefulness of OSNs users generated data to predict the political context. More specifically, 25 Computational Intelligence (CI) algorithms are used to predict voting intentions on the United States primary presidential elections for 2016, taking as input the data sets generated by 1200 users of the YouGov OSN, as well as the answers they gave to an online study run by the American National Election Studies (ANES). The application of the 25 supervised classification algorithms is done over the Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), using a stratified 5-fold cross validation scheme. Also, the experimental results obtained were validated in order to identify significant differences in performance by mean of a non-parametric statistical test (the Friedman test), and a post-hoc test (the Holm test). The hypothesis testing analysis of the experimental results indicates that predicting voting intentions in favour of a democrat or republican candidate is simpler than predicting the particular candidate, given that the prediction performances for a democrat or republican candidate (best performances of 80% and 78%, respectively) are better than those given when predicting a specific candidate (70% for democrat candidates and 56% for republican candidates).

В статье представлены сведения о политических ориентациях современной молодежи Екатеринбурга. Показано, насколько политика интересна представителям молодого поколения. Охарактеризована степень поддержки молодежью Екатеринбурга деятельности руководства их города, Свердловской области и России. Описан уровень политического доверия молодых людей по отношению к местным, региональным и федеральным властям. Приведены данные о политической активности и электоральных предпочтениях екатеринбургской молодежи. The article presents the data about modern Yekaterinburg youth political orientations. The level of young generation representatives interesting to politics is showed. The degree of Yekaterinburg youth supporting of the activity of the guidance of their city, Sverdlovsk region and Russia is characterized. The level of the young people political credibility to the local, regional and federal authorities is described. The data about Yekaterinburg youth political activeness and electoral preferences are presented.

У жовтні-листопаді 2015 року у м. Суми відбулися вибори міського голови. Протягом періоду передвиборчої агітації нами було проведено 4 хвилі замірів рейтингів кандидатів з метою оцінки результативності агітаційних заходів та своєчасного їх коригування у залежності від позиції кандидата.

Autorka analizuje ewolucję układów partyjno-politycznych w Niemczech wschodnich oraz wyniki kolejnych wyborów do parlamentów związkowych (Landtagi) i do Bundestagu, od zjednoczenie do ostatnich wyborów z 22 września 2013 r. Przedstawia proces kształtowania się systemu partyjnego w nowych krajach federacji oraz przyczyny odmienności, którą utrwalały kolejne wyborami. Następnie przeprowadza analizę wyników głosowania w Niemczech Wschodnich w wyborach do Bundestagu, porównując je z preferencjami w zachodniej części kraju. Podczas ostatnich wyborów miało miejsce zarówno zbliżenie wyników wyborów do ogólnoniemieckiej tendencji (zwycięstwo CDU), ale i zachowanie dotychczasowych preferencji, gdyż mimo strat, drugą zwycięską partia w wyborach była Lewica, a SPD i FDP ponownie utraciły część wyborców. O tym jednak, czy mamy do czynienia z postępującym wyrównywaniem postaw wyborczych w obu częściach RFN, zadecydują wybory do parlamentów związkowych w 2014 i 2016 roku. The author analyzes the evolution of party-political systems in Eastern Germany and the results of subsequent elections to the State Diets (Landtag) and the Bundestag from the unification to the latest elections of 22 September 2013. She presents the process of the shaping of the party system in the new federal states and the causes of their differences, solidified by consecutive elections. Next she undertakes an analysis of the polling results in Eastern Germany in elections to the Bundestag, comparing them to the electoral preferences in the Western part of the country. During the last elections there occurred both an approximation of the polling results to the overall German trend (victory of the CDU) but also the continuation of hitherto preferences, since in spite of losses The Left came second, while SPD and FDP again lost a part of the voters. However, whether this means a progressive leveling of electoral attitudes in both parts of the FRG will be decided in the elections to the State Diets in 2014 and 2016.

The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyze the regional differentiation in Serbia with regards to the question of the country's accession to the European Union (EU). The analysis is based on a voting preferences of pro-European or Eurosceptic political parties and leaders. The prerequisite is a north-south polarization of these preferences correlating with socio-economic maturity of the region. Thesis uses electoral geography to determine if this correlation exists and if so, how stable it is in the time period. The first part of the thesis discusses a general theory of regional differentiation of electoral results, the emergence and development of nationalism in Serbia and Serbia's relations and cooperation with the EU. The second part of the thesis attempts to provide an objective image of the Serbian political scene, its electoral history and main political affairs. These two parts, in which the thematic literature is discussed, serve as a theoretical framework for the third part of the thesis which deals with the analysis of electoral results in socio-economic frame and also contains a discussion of the results of correlation. Key words Serbia, electoral preferences, regional differentiation, European Union

This diploma thesis focuses on political-business cycle which is a theme frequently omitted in discussions about economic situation in the Czech Republic. Theoretical part of the work will provide readers with the topic of political-business cycle and its basic models which will serve as a support to the statistical research in the analytical part. Is fiscal policy in hands of Czech politicians an efficient tool to manipulate voters? The aim of the work is to answer this question and thus give a detailed look of political-business cycle on example of four regular electoral periods of Czech Parliament. To reach the goal of diploma thesis, we used regressive analysis to examine hypothesis if the date of elections influences certain folders of income and expenses of government budget. This hypothesis was not accepted on the significance level of 5 per cent. The reasons are mainly short time series of tested indicators.

У статті досліджуються основні теорії формування електоральних уподобань виборців. Аналізується актуальність цих концепцій для електоральної ситуації в Україні. Досліджуються мотиви вибору українських громадян. This article examines the basic theory of the formation of the electoral preferences of voters. The author analyzed the relevance of these concepts to the electoral situation in Ukraine and explored the motives of Ukrainian citizens’ choice.

En este artículo se analiza el impacto que ejercen los medios de comunicación en la formación de las opiniones de los votantes acerca de las campañas electorales y de los candidatos en la ciudad de Monterrey durante la elección presidencial de 2012. Para llevar a cabo la investigación se utilizan los resultados de 7 grupos de discusión realizados con habitantes de la ciudad en el marco del Proyecto de Observación Electoral 2012. En la primera parte se revisan algunos conceptos fundamentales para el desarrollo de la investigación. En la segunda, se detalla la metodología de grupos de enfoque utilizada y se aclaran algunas especificaciones técnicas del trabajo de campo llevado a cabo. En la tercera, se presentan los resultados de la investigación. Finalmente, se comparten algunas reflexiones a modo de conclusión en tanto que los hallazgos redimensionan el significado que algunos le atribuyen a los medios de comunicación en la formación de las preferencias durante las campañas electorales. Esto abre espacio para realizar nuevos estudios, más específicos y enfocados, en un tema donde la investigación académica aún tiene interrogantes de importancia que resolver., This article analyzes the impact of the media on the formation of voters' opinions on the electoral campaigns and on the candidates in the city of Monterrey during the presidential election of 2012. For this research, the results of 7 discussion groups among the residents of the city in the framework of the Project on Electoral Observation 2012 were used. In the first part, some fundamental concepts for the development of the research are reviewed. In the second part, the methodology of the focus groups used is detailed and some technical specifications of the field work are explained. In the third part, the results of the investigation are presented. Finally, some reflections are presented as a sort of tentative conclusions, as the findings resize the importance attributed to the media in the formation of preferences during electoral campaigns. This opens new opportunities for new studies, more specific and focused, on a subject in which academic research still has some important questions that are to be answered.