60 results on '"Fosser, Giorgia"'
Search Results
52. Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection‐permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom.
- Author
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Fosser, Giorgia, Kendon, Elizabeth, Chan, Steven, Lock, Adrian, Roberts, Nigel, and Bush, Mike
- Subjects
- *
WEATHER forecasting , *CLIMATOLOGY , *CLIMATE change , *ELECTION forecasting , *CLIMATE change forecasts , *CLIMATE change models , *METEOROLOGICAL precipitation - Abstract
Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) provide a better representation of sub‐daily precipitation statistics and convective processes on both climate and weather forecasting timescales. This study aims to establish what horizontal resolution and physical process settings are suitable for the first ensemble of convection‐permitting climate projections for the United Kingdom. For this purpose, 12‐year‐long simulations were run using three different convection‐permitting resolutions (grid spacing of 4 km, 2.2 km and 1.5 km) each with several configurations. The focus is on the ability to represent sub‐daily precipitation due to its potential for high impacts on society through flooding. The analysis shows that the use of a finer grid spacing within the convection‐permitting regime improves the representation of sub‐daily precipitation but the added value decreases as the grid becomes increasingly finer, while the computational costs substantially increase. Changes in the representation of physical processes can have as much impact as the grid spacing and can lead to similar differences in the diurnal cycle as between convection‐parametrized models and CPMs. Although the 4km model shows some key deficiencies that make it unreliable for climate projection, the 2.2km model performs as well as the 1.5km model for most of the metrics examined with considerable benefits in terms of computer cost. The optimal configuration and resolution identified here is being used for an ensemble of simulations run within the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project, which allows, for the first time, an estimate of uncertainty in future changes at convection‐permitting scale and providing more reliable climate change projections at local and hourly scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
53. Pan-European climate at convection-permitting scale: a model intercomparison study
- Author
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Berthou, Ségolène, primary, Kendon, Elizabeth J., additional, Chan, Steven C., additional, Ban, Nikolina, additional, Leutwyler, David, additional, Schär, Christoph, additional, and Fosser, Giorgia, additional
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
54. Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios
- Author
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Drobinski, Philippe, da Silva, Nicolas, Panthou, Geremy, Bastin, Sophie, Muller, Caroline, Ahrens, Bodo, Conte, Dario, Fosser, Giorgia, Giorgi, Filippo, Güttler, Ivan, Kotroni, Vassiliki, Li, Laurent, Morin, Efrat, Önol, Bariş, Quintana Seguí, Pere, Romera, Raquel, Torma, Csaba Zsolt, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'hydrodynamique (LadHyX), École polytechnique (X)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt [Frankfurt/Main] (IAU), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), National Observatory of Athens (NOA), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ), Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics [Istanbul], Istanbul Technical University (ITÜ), Observatori de l'Ebre (OE), Universitat Ramon Llull [Barcelona] (URL)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Environmental Sciences/ Instituto de Ciencias Medioambientales de Toledo (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha = University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universitat Ramon Llull [Barcelona] (URL), and Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM)
- Subjects
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology - Abstract
International audience; Future climate change projections indicate that many temperature and precipitation extremes become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate on a global scale, and concomitantly the risks of severe impacts to society will increase, calling for proactive adaptation measures. In order to support the adaptation decision making process, information on climate extremes is especially needed on a regional to local scale including time scales from sub-seasons to decades.
- Published
- 2016
55. A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges
- Author
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Prein, Andreas F, Langhans, Wolfgang, Fosser, Giorgia, Ferrone, Andrew, Ban, Nikolina, Goergen, Klaus, Keller, Michael, Toelle, Merja, Gutjahr, Oliver, Feser, Frauke, Brisson, Erwan, Kollet, Stefan, Schmidli, Juerg, Van Lipzig, Nicole, and Leung, Ruby
- Subjects
Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering ,Volcanology ,Precipitation ,Review Article ,Convective Processes ,Extreme Events ,ddc:551 ,ddc:550 ,convection-permitting modeling ,Global Change ,nonhydrostatic modeling ,Review Articles ,climate ,high resolution ,Climate Impacts ,Physical Modeling ,convection‐permitting modeling ,Climate Impact ,Atmospheric Processes ,Volcano/Climate Interactions ,Regional Climate Change ,cloud resolving ,Hydrology ,Impacts of Global Change ,Mathematical Geophysics ,Regional Modeling ,Natural Hazards ,added value - Abstract
Regional climate modeling using convection‐permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing 10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs., Reviews of Geophysics, 53 (2), ISSN:8755-1209, ISSN:0096-1043, ISSN:1944-9208
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
56. Precipitation statistics from regional climate model at resolutions relevant for soil erosion
- Author
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Fosser, Giorgia
- Subjects
regional climate model ,atmospheric processes ,convection-permitting scale ,atmosphärische Prozesse ,Konvektion ,climate change signal ,Physics::Fluid Dynamics ,Earth sciences ,Klimawandel-Signal ,ddc:550 ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,convection ,Regionale Klimamodelle - Abstract
A major source of uncertainty in regional climate model simulations arises from the convection parameterisation. Increasing spatial resolution to the so-called convection-permitting scale allows switching off most of the convective parameterisations. Several studies prove the benefits of this spatial scale, but none of them is based on climatological time-scale (i.e. 30 years) as this research.
- Published
- 2014
57. Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios
- Author
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Drobinski, Philippe, primary, Silva, Nicolas Da, additional, Panthou, Gérémy, additional, Bastin, Sophie, additional, Muller, Caroline, additional, Ahrens, Bodo, additional, Borga, Marco, additional, Conte, Dario, additional, Fosser, Giorgia, additional, Giorgi, Filippo, additional, Güttler, Ivan, additional, Kotroni, Vassiliki, additional, Li, Laurent, additional, Morin, Efrat, additional, Önol, Bariş, additional, Quintana-Segui, Pere, additional, Romera, Raquel, additional, and Torma, Csaba Zsolt, additional
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
58. Climatic oscillations influence the flooding of Venice
- Author
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Fagherazzi, Sergio, primary, Fosser, Giorgia, additional, D'Alpaos, Luigi, additional, and D'Odorico, Paolo, additional
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
59. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes.
- Author
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Fowler HJ, Ali H, Allan RP, Ban N, Barbero R, Berg P, Blenkinsop S, Cabi NS, Chan S, Dale M, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans JP, Fosser G, Golding B, Guerreiro SB, Hegerl GC, Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X, O'Gorman PA, Orr HG, Peat KL, Prein AF, Pritchard D, Schär C, Sharma A, Stott PA, Villalobos-Herrera R, Villarini G, Wasko C, Wehner MF, Westra S, and Whitford A
- Abstract
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (6-7% K
-1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
60. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges.
- Author
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Prein AF, Langhans W, Fosser G, Ferrone A, Ban N, Goergen K, Keller M, Tölle M, Gutjahr O, Feser F, Brisson E, Kollet S, Schmidli J, van Lipzig NP, and Leung R
- Abstract
Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable climate information on regional to local scales compared to traditionally used large-scale models (LSMs; horizontal grid spacing >10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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