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Objectives: To investigate how changes in frailty status and mortality risk relate to baseline frailty state, mobility performance, age, and sex., Design: Cohort study., Setting: The Yale Precipitating Events Project, New Haven, Connecticut., Participants: Seven hundred fifty-four community-dwelling people aged 70 and older at baseline followed up at 18, 36, and 54 months., Measurements: Frailty status, assessed at 18-month intervals, was defined using a frailty index (FI) as the number of deficits in 36 health variables. Mobility was defined as time in seconds on the rapid gait test, in which participants walked back and forth over a 20-foot course as quickly as possible. Multistate transition probabilities were calculated with baseline frailty, mobility, age, and sex estimated using Poisson and logistic regressions in survivors and those who died, respectively., Results: In multivariable analyses, baseline frailty status and age were significantly associated with changes in frailty status and risk of death, whereas mobility was significantly associated with the frailty but not with mortality. At all values of the FI, participants with better mobility were more likely than those with poor mobility to remain stable or to improve. For example, at 54 months, 20.6% (95% confidence interval (CI)=16-25.2) of participants with poor mobility had the same or fewer deficits, compared with 32.4% (95% CI=27.9-36.9) of those with better mobility., Conclusion: A multistate transition model effectively measured the probability of change in frailty status and risk of death. Mobility, age, and baseline frailty were significant factors in frailty state transitions., (© 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.)

Context: Disability among older persons is a complex and highly dynamic process, with high rates of recovery and frequent transitions between states of disability. The role of intervening illnesses and injuries (ie, events) on these transitions is uncertain., Objectives: To evaluate the relationship between intervening events and transitions among states of no disability, mild disability, severe disability, and death and to determine the association of physical frailty with these transitions., Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study conducted in greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to December 2008 of 754 community-living persons aged 70 years or older who were nondisabled at baseline in 4 essential activities of daily living: bathing, dressing, walking, and transferring. Telephone interviews were completed monthly for more than 10 years to assess disability and ascertain exposure to intervening events, which included illnesses and injuries leading to either hospitalization or restricted activity. Physical frailty (defined as gait speed >10 seconds on the rapid gait test) was assessed every 18 months through 108 months., Main Outcome Measure: Transitions between no disability, mild disability, and severe disability and 3 transitions from each of these states to death, evaluated each month., Results: Hospitalization was strongly associated with 8 of the 9 possible transitions, with increased multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) as high as 168 (95% confidence interval [CI], 118-239) for the transition from no disability to severe disability and decreased HRs as low as 0.41 (95% CI, 0.30-0.54) for the transition from mild disability to no disability. Restricted activity also increased the likelihood of transitioning from no disability to both mild and severe disability (HR, 2.59; 95% CI, 2.23-3.02; and HR, 8.03; 95% CI, 5.28-12.21), respectively, and from mild disability to severe disability (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.14-1.84), but was not associated with recovery from mild or severe disability. For all 9 transitions, the presence of physical frailty accentuated the associations of the intervening events. For example, the absolute risk of transitioning from no disability to mild disability within 1 month after hospitalization for frail individuals was 34.9% (95% CI, 34.5%-35.3%) vs 4.9% (95% CI, 4.7%-5.1%) for nonfrail individuals. Among the possible reasons for hospitalization, fall-related injury conferred the highest likelihood of developing new or worsening disability., Conclusions: Among older persons, particularly those who were physically frail, intervening illnesses and injuries greatly increased the likelihood of developing new or worsening disability. Only the most potent events, ie, those leading to hospitalization, reduced the likelihood of recovery from disability.

Background: Despite the importance of functional status to older persons and their families, little is known about the course of disability at the end of life., Methods: We evaluated data on 383 decedents from a longitudinal study involving 754 community-dwelling older persons. None of the subjects had disability in essential activities of daily living at the beginning of the study, and the level of disability was ascertained during monthly interviews for more than 10 years. Information on the conditions leading to death was obtained from death certificates and comprehensive assessments that were completed at 18-month intervals after the baseline assessment., Results: In the last year of life, five distinct trajectories were identified, from no disability to the most severe disability: 65 subjects had no disability (17.0%), 76 had catastrophic disability (19.8%), 67 had accelerated disability (17.5%), 91 had progressive disability (23.8%), and 84 had persistently severe disability (21.9%). The most common condition leading to death was frailty (in 107 subjects [27.9%]), followed by organ failure (in 82 subjects [21.4%]), cancer (in 74 subjects [19.3%]), other causes (in 57 subjects [14.9%]), advanced dementia (in 53 subjects [13.8%]), and sudden death (in 10 subjects [2.6%]). When the distribution of the disability trajectories was evaluated according to the conditions leading to death, a predominant trajectory was observed only for subjects who died from advanced dementia (67.9% of these subjects had a trajectory of persistently severe disability) and sudden death (50.0% of these subjects had no disability). For the four other conditions leading to death, no more than 34% of the subjects had any of the disability trajectories. The distribution of disability trajectories was particularly heterogeneous among the subjects with organ failure (from 12.2 to 32.9% of the subjects followed a specific trajectory) and frailty (from 14.0 to 27.1% of the subjects followed a specific trajectory)., Conclusions: In most of the decedents, the course of disability in the last year of life did not follow a predictable pattern based on the condition leading to death., (2010 Massachusetts Medical Society)

Background: The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with recovery of prehospital function among older persons admitted to a nursing home with disability after an acute hospitalization., Methods: The analytic sample included 292 participants of an ongoing cohort study who had one or more admissions to a nursing home with disability after an acute hospitalization during nearly 10 years of follow-up, yielding a total of 364 "index" nursing home admissions. Information on nursing home admissions, hospitalizations, and disability in essential activities of daily living was ascertained during monthly telephone interviews. Data on potential predictors of functional recovery were collected during comprehensive assessments, which were completed every 18 months for 90 months. Participants were considered to have recovered if they were discharged home within 6 months of their nursing home admission at (or above) their prehospital level of function., Results: Recovery of prehospital function was observed for 115 (31.6%) of the 364 index nursing home admissions. In the multivariate analysis, the strongest associations were observed for the best category of performance, relative to the poorest category, for gross motor coordination (hazard ratio [HR] 13.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.02-45.0) and manual dexterity (HR 10.0, 95% CI 2.94-34.3). Only two other factors were independently associated with recovery of prehospital function: not cognitively impaired (HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.46-6.14) and no significant weight loss (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.06-3.63)., Conclusions: In the setting of an acute hospitalization leading to a nursing home admission with disability, the likelihood of recovering prehospital function is low. The factors associated with recovery include faster performance on tests of gross motor coordination and manual dexterity and the absence of cognitive impairment and significant weight loss.

Objectives: To identify the factors associated with accurate recall of prior disability., Design: Cohort study., Setting: Greater New Haven, Connecticut., Participants: Ninety-two participants, included in each of two analytical samples, who were nondisabled at the present time in four essential activities of daily living (ADLs; bathing, dressing, transferring, and walking) but who had had at least 1 month of disability during the prior year as determined from monthly telephone interviews., Measurements: Participants who did not need help from another person at the present time were asked to recall whether they had needed help from another person to complete the relevant ADL at any time during the previous 12 months., Results: Forty-five (48.9%) and 46 (50.0%) of the 92 participants accurately recalled having had disability in the prior year in the first and second analytical samples, respectively. Having at least a high school education was the only factor independently associated with accurate recall in the first analytical sample, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 3.03 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.11-8.31), whereas a composite disability scale that considered the timing and severity of prior disability was the only factor independently associated with accurate recall in the second analytic sample (AOR=5.38, 95% CI=1.81-16.1)., Conclusion: The results of the current study, coupled with those of previous studies, suggest potential strategies that could be used to more completely and accurately ascertain the occurrence of disability in older persons.

Objective: To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of a new bathing disability scale., Design: Reliability and validity study., Setting: General community., Participants: Two subsets of community-living older persons, selected from an ongoing longitudinal study, who had some degree of bathing disability or were at increased risk for bathing disability, as determined during a comprehensive assessment at 36 (N=199) and 54 (N=213) months, respectively., Interventions: Not applicable., Main Outcome Measures: The bathing disability scale was administered at 36, 54, and 72 months, and changes in scores were assessed between 36 and 54 months and 54 and 72 months, respectively, for the 2 subsets of participants. Convergent construct validity was evaluated by comparisons with changes in activity of daily living (ADL) disability, mobility disability, and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Discriminative construct validity was determined by comparisons according to age and physical frailty. Responsiveness was evaluated by comparisons between participants who had and had not been hospitalized and, subsequently, by plotting correlations according to the timing of these hospitalizations., Results: The test-retest reliability was high, with an intraclass correlation coefficient=0.76 (95% confidence interval=0.59-0.94). The internal consistency reliability was excellent with Cronbach alpha=0.91-0.97. Changes in scores on the bathing disability scale were positively correlated with changes in scores in ADL and mobility disability and inversely correlated with changes in scores on the SPPB. A greater decline in scores was observed among the oldest old and those who were physically frail, but these differences did not consistently achieve statistical significance. The scale was responsive to the occurrence and/or timing of intervening hospitalizations., Conclusions: The bathing disability scale is reliable, valid, and responsive and may be suitable for use in clinical trials to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to enhance independent bathing.

Objectives: To characterize the functional trajectories of older persons admitted to a nursing home with disability after an acute hospitalization., Design: Prospective cohort study of 754 community-living persons aged 70 and older who were initially nondisabled in four essential activities of daily living (ADLs)., Setting: Greater New Haven, Connecticut., Participants: The analytical sample included 296 participants who were newly admitted to a nursing home with disability after an acute hospitalization., Measurements: Information on nursing home admissions, hospitalizations, and disability in essential ADLs was ascertained during monthly telephone interviews for up to 9 years. Disability was defined as the need for personal assistance in bathing, dressing, walking inside one's home, or transferring from a chair., Results: The median time to the first nursing home admission with disability after an acute hospitalization was 46 months (interquartile range 27.5-75.5), and the mean number+/-standard deviation of ADLs that participants were disabled in upon admission was 3.0+/-1.2. In the month preceding hospitalization, 189 (63.9%) participants had no disability. The most common functional trajectory was discharged home with disability (46.3%), followed by continuous disability in the nursing home (27.4%), discharged home without disability (21.6%), and noncontinuous disability in the nursing home (4.4%). Only 96 (32.4%) participants returned home at (or above) their premorbid level of function., Conclusion: The functional trajectories of older persons admitted to a nursing home with disability after an acute hospitalization are generally poor. Additional research is needed to identify the factors responsible for these poor outcomes.

Background: Frailty can be measured in relation to the accumulation of deficits using a frailty index. A frailty index can be developed from most ageing databases. Our objective is to systematically describe a standard procedure for constructing a frailty index., Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study, based in New Haven CT. Non-disabled people aged 70 years or older (n = 754) were enrolled and re-contacted every 18 months. The database includes variables on function, cognition, co-morbidity, health attitudes and practices and physical performance measures. Data came from the baseline cohort and those available at the first 18-month follow-up assessment., Results: Procedures for selecting health variables as candidate deficits were applied to yield 40 deficits. Recoding procedures were applied for categorical, ordinal and interval variables such that they could be mapped to the interval 0-1, where 0 = absence of a deficit, and 1= full expression of the deficit. These individual deficit scores were combined in an index, where 0= no deficit present, and 1= all 40 deficits present. The values of the index were well fit by a gamma distribution. Between the baseline and follow-up cohorts, the age-related slope of deficit accumulation increased from 0.020 (95% confidence interval, 0.014-0.026) to 0.026 (0.020-0.032). The 99% limit to deficit accumulation was 0.6 in the baseline cohort and 0.7 in the follow-up cohort. Multivariate Cox analysis showed the frailty index, age and sex to be significant predictors of mortality., Conclusion: A systematic process for creating a frailty index, which relates deficit accumulation to the individual risk of death, showed reproducible properties in the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study. This method of quantifying frailty can aid our understanding of frailty-related health characteristics in older adults.

Background: To advance the field of disability assessment, additional developmental work is needed. The objective of this study was to determine the potential value of participant recall when evaluating disability over discrete periods of time., Methods: We studied 491 residents of greater New Haven, Connecticut, who were 76 years old or older. Participants completed a comprehensive assessment that included several new questions on disability in four essential activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, transferring, and walking). Participants were also assessed for disability in the same activities during monthly telephone interviews before and after the comprehensive assessment. Chronic disability was defined as a new disability that was present for at least three consecutive months., Results: We found that up to half of the incident disability episodes, which would otherwise have been missed, can be ascertained if participants are asked to recall whether they have had disability "at any time" since the prior assessment; that these disability episodes, which are ascertained by participant recall, confer high risk for the subsequent development of chronic disability, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-5.8); and that participant recall for the absence of disability becomes increasingly inaccurate as the duration of the assessment interval increases, with 2.2%, 6.0%, 6.9%, and 9.1% of participants having inaccurate recall at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively., Conclusions: Our results demonstrate both the promise and limitations of participant recall and suggest that additional strategies are needed to more completely and accurately ascertain the occurrence of disability among older persons.

Objectives: To determine whether peak expiratory flow (PEF), when expressed by a validated method using standardized residual (SR) percentile, is associated with subsequent disability and death in older persons., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: New Haven, Connecticut., Participants: Seven hundred fifty-four initially nondisabled, community-living persons aged 70 and older., Measurements: PEF was assessed at baseline along with chronic conditions and smoking history. The onset of persistent disability in activities of daily living (ADLs), continuous mobility disability, and death were ascertained during monthly interviews over a 5-year period., Results: Participants' mean age was 78.4, 63.7% had a smoking history, and 17.4% reported chronic lung disease. The incidence rates per 100 person-months were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.90-1.12) for ADL disability, 0.80 (95% CI=0.70-0.93) for mobility disability, and 0.44 (95% CI=0.38-0.51) for death. At a PEF less than 10(th) SR percentile, identifying nearly one-quarter of the cohort, hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for multiple confounders, including age, smoking, and chronic lung disease, demonstrated a greater risk of ADL disability (HR=1.79, 95% CI=1.23-2.62), mobility disability (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.15-3.10), and death (HR=2.31, 95% CI=1.29-4.12)., Conclusion: In an elderly cohort, it was found that low PEF, when expressed as an SR percentile, is independently associated with subsequent disability and death. These results support the use of PEF as a potentially valuable risk assessment tool in community-living older persons.

Background: Peak expiratory flow ("peak flow") predicts important outcomes in older persons. Nevertheless, its clinical application is uncertain because prior strategies for reporting peak flow may not be valid. We thus determined the frequency distribution of peak flow by the conventional strategy of percent predicted (%predicted) and by an alternative method termed standardized residual (SR) percentile, and evaluated how these two metrics relate to health status in older persons., Methods: Participants included 754 community-dwelling persons aged >/= 70 years. Data included chronic conditions, frailty indicators, and peak flow., Results: Mean age was 78.4 years, with 63.7% reporting a smoking history, 17.4% chronic lung disease, and 77.1% having one or more frailty indicators. Peak flow >/= 80 %predicted was recorded in 67.5% of participants, whereas peak flow >/= 80th SR percentile was only noted in 15.9%. A graded relationship was observed between peak flow and health status, but %predicted yielded health risk at peak flows currently considered normal (80-100 %predicted), whereas SR percentile conferred health risk only at severely reduced peak flows (< 50th SR percentile)., Conclusions: Peak flow expressed as SR percentile attains a frequency distribution more consistent with the characteristics of our elderly cohort, and establishes health risk at more appropriate levels of reduced peak flow. These findings establish the need for longitudinal studies based on SR percentile to further evaluate the use of peak flow as a risk assessment tool in older persons and to determine if pulmonary function, in general, is better reported in older persons as SR percentile, rather than as %predicted.

Background: Little is known about the natural course of frailty. We performed a prospective study to determine the transition rates between frailty states and to evaluate the effect of the preceding frailty state on subsequent frailty transitions., Methods: We studied 754 community-living persons, aged 70 years or older, who were nondisabled in 4 essential activities of daily living. Frailty, assessed every 18 months for 54 months, was defined on the basis of weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, muscle weakness, and slow walking speed. Participants were classified as frail if they met 3 or more of these criteria, as prefrail if they met 1 or 2 of the criteria, and as nonfrail if they met none of the criteria., Results: Of the 754 participants, 434 (57.6%) had at least 1 transition between any 2 of the 3 frailty states during 54 months. The rates were 36.8%, 21.5%, and 9.2% for 1, 2, and 3 transitions, respectively. During the 18-month intervals, transitions to states of greater frailty were more common (rates up to 43.3%) than transitions to states of lesser frailty (rates up to 23.0%), and the probability of transitioning from being frail to nonfrail was very low (rates, 0%-0.9%), even during an extended period. The likelihood of transitioning between frailty states was highly dependent on one's preceding frailty state., Conclusions: Frailty among older persons is a dynamic process, characterized by frequent transitions between frailty states over time. Our findings suggest ample opportunity for the prevention and remediation of frailty.

Background: Although there is no generally accepted definition for the term short-term disability, chronic disability has been defined as disability lasting or expected to last at least 90 days according to a protocol that was established by the National Long-Term Care Survey. We evaluated the validity of the established protocol and determined the accuracy of prevalence estimates of chronic disability among elderly persons in the United States., Methods: Chronic disability was ascertained during a comprehensive assessment using the established protocol. Participants were subsequently classified as having chronic disability (the gold standard) based on the presence of disability during consecutive monthly interviews immediately before or after the comprehensive assessment., Results: Of the 552 participants, 120 (21.7%) met criteria for chronic disability according to the established protocol. Of these, 30 (25.0%) and 39 (32.5%) did not meet criteria according to the gold standard under assumptions that were favorable and unfavorable (ie, stringent) to the established protocol, respectively. Conversely, of the 95 participants (17.2%) who met the gold standard criteria for chronic disability according to the favorable strategy and the 89 (16.1%) who met the criteria according to the stringent strategy, 5 (5.3%) and 8 (9.0%), respectively, did not meet criteria for chronic disability according to the established protocol. Relative to the established estimate of 7.0 million, our projections yielded about 2.0 million fewer chronically disabled elderly Americans in 1999., Conclusion: Our results threaten the validity of the currently established protocol for ascertaining chronic disability and suggest that the burden of chronic disability among elderly Americans has been substantially overestimated.

Objectives: To describe the development and implementation of a preventive, home-based physical therapy program (PREHAB) and to provide evidence for the safety and interrater reliability of the PREHAB protocol., Design: Demonstration study., Setting: General community., Participants: Ninety-four physically frail, community-living persons, aged 75 years or older, who were randomized to the PREHAB program in a clinical trial., Interventions: The PREHAB program built on the physical therapy component of 2 previous home-based protocols. A total of 223 assessment items were linked to 28 possible interventions, including progressive balance and conditioning exercises, by using detailed algorithms and decisions rules that were automated on notebook computers., Main Outcomes Measures: The percentages of participants who were eligible for and who completed each intervention, the extent of progress noted in the balance and conditioning exercises, adherence to the training program, and adverse events., Results: Participants who completed the PREHAB program and those who ended it prematurely received an average of 9.7 and 7.2 interventions during an average of 14.9 and 9.5 home visits, respectively. With few exceptions, the completion rate and interrater reliability for the specific interventions were high. Despite high self-reported adherence to the training program, the majority of participants did not advance beyond the initial Thera-Band level for the upper- and lower-extremity conditioning exercises, and only about a third advanced to the highest 2 levels of the balance exercises. Adverse events were no more common in the PREHAB group than in the educational control group., Conclusion: Our results support the feasibility and safety of the PREHAB program, but also show the special challenges and pitfalls of such a strategy when it is implemented among persons of advanced age and physical frailty., (Copyright 2003 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation)

Background: Restricted activity is a potentially important indicator of health and functional status. Yet, relatively little is known about the incidence, precipitants, or health care utilization associated with restricted activity among older persons., Objective: To more accurately estimate the rate of restricted activity among community-living older persons, to identify the health-related and non-health-related problems that lead to restricted activity, and to determine whether restricted activity is associated with increased health care utilization., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: New Haven, Connecticut., Participants: 754 nondisabled members of a large health plan, 70 years of age or older, who were categorized according to their risk for disability (low, intermediate, or high)., Measurements: Occurrence of restricted activity (defined as having stayed in bed for at least half a day or having cut down on one's usual activities because of an illness, injury, or another problem), problems leading to restricted activity, and health care utilization were ascertained during monthly telephone interviews for up to 2 years., Results: In median follow-up of 15 months, 76.6% of participants reported restricted activity during at least 1 month and 39.3% reported restricted activity during 2 consecutive months. The rates of restricted activity per 100 person-months were 19.0 episodes for all participants and 16.9, 27.3, and 22.7 episodes for participants at low, intermediate, and high risk for disability, respectively. Of the 24 prespecified health-related and non-health-related problems, the rates per 100 person-months of restricted activity ranged from 0.1 episode for "problem with alcohol" to 65.5 episodes for "been fatigued." On average, participants identified 4.5 different problems as a cause for their restricted activity. Health care utilization was substantially greater during months with restricted activity than months without restricted activity. The corresponding rates per 100 person-months were 63.8 and 45.1 for physician office visits, 12.5 and 1.0 for emergency department visits, 14.1 and 0.3 for hospital admissions, and 67.6 and 45.1 for any health care utilization (P < 0.001 for each pairwise comparison)., Conclusions: Restricted activity is common among community-living older persons, regardless of risk for disability, and it is usually attributable to several concurrent health-related problems. Although restricted activity is associated with a substantial increase in health care utilization, older persons with restricted activity often do not seek medical attention.

Objectives: To compare the efficiency and cost of two distinct but complementary recruitment strategies for a clinical trial of physically frail, community-living persons, age 75 and older., Design: In the first recruitment strategy, potential participants were identified and screened for physical frailty during office visits to their primary care physicians; in the second, potential participants were identified from the patient rosters of primary care physicians and were screened for physical frailty in their home. Physical frailty was defined on the basis of slow gait speed and inability to stand from a chair with one's arms folded., Setting: General community in greater Bridgeport, Connecticut., Participants: Community-living persons, age 75 and older, who met criteria for physical frailty., Measurements: Measures of efficiency included the number of persons screened for each participant randomized, the number of persons eligible for each participant randomized, and the refusal rate. Costs were calculated per randomized participant., Results: One hundred eighty-eight participants, with a mean age of 83.2 years, were enrolled over 22 months. One hundred and one participants were enrolled via the office-based strategy; 87 were enrolled via the roster-based strategy. Participants in each group had considerable quadriceps weakness and performed poorly on objective measures of gait and upper- and lower-extremity function. For each participant randomized, the number of persons screened, number of persons eligible, and cost were 15.2, 1.2, and $868, respectively, for the office-based strategy and 11.6, 1.1, and $764, respectively, for the roster-based strategy. The corresponding refusal rates for the two strategies were 14.9% and 10.1%, respectively (P < .001)., Conclusions: Although each recruitment strategy successfully identified older persons who were physically frail, the roster-based strategy was less expensive and performed modestly better on each measure of efficiency than the office-based strategy.