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Dynamic functional connectivity, as measured by the time-varying covariance of neurological signals, is believed to play an important role in many aspects of cognition. While many methods have been proposed, reliably establishing the presence and characteristics of brain connectivity is challenging due to the high dimensionality and noisiness of neuroimaging data. We present a latent factor Gaussian process model which addresses these challenges by learning a parsimonious representation of connectivity dynamics. The proposed model naturally allows for inference and visualization of connectivity dynamics. As an illustration of the scientific utility of the model, application to a data set of rat local field potential activity recorded during a complex non-spatial memory task provides evidence of stimuli differentiation.

Several important applications, such as streaming PCA and semidefinite programming, involve a large-scale positive-semidefinite (psd) matrix that is presented as a sequence of linear updates. Because of storage limitations, it may only be possible to retain a sketch of the psd matrix. This paper develops a new algorithm for fixed-rank psd approximation from a sketch. The approach combines the Nyström approximation with a novel mechanism for rank truncation. Theoretical analysis establishes that the proposed method can achieve any prescribed relative error in the Schatten 1-norm and that it exploits the spectral decay of the input matrix. Computer experiments show that the proposed method dominates alternative techniques for fixed-rank psd matrix approximation across a wide range of examples.

Tensor decomposition is positioned to be a pervasive tool in the era of big data. In this paper, we resolve many of the key algorithmic questions regarding robustness, memory efficiency, and differential privacy of tensor decomposition. We propose simple variants of the tensor power method which enjoy these strong properties. We propose the first streaming method with a linear memory requirement. Moreover, we present a noise calibrated tensor power method with efficient privacy guarantees. At the heart of all these guarantees lies a careful perturbation analysis derived in this paper which improves up on the existing results significantly.

We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach which models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our proposed method is therefore able to synthesize multiple possible next frames using the same model. Solving this challenging problem involves low- and high-level image and motion understanding for successful image synthesis. Here, we propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network, that encodes images as feature maps and motion information as convolutional kernels to aid in synthesizing future frames. In experiments, our model performs well on both synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold video data. We show that our model can also be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present analysis of the learned network representations.

We identify a unique viewpoint on the collective behaviour of intelligent agents. We first develop a highly general abstract model for the possible future lives these agents may encounter as a result of their decisions. In the context of these possibilities, we show that the causal entropic principle, whereby agents follow behavioural rules that maximize their entropy over all paths through the future, predicts many of the observed features of social interactions among both human and animal groups. Our results indicate that agents are often able to maximize their future path entropy by remaining cohesive as a group and that this cohesion leads to collectively intelligent outcomes that depend strongly on the distribution of the number of possible future paths. We derive social interaction rules that are consistent with maximum entropy group behaviour for both discrete and continuous decision spaces. Our analysis further predicts that social interactions are likely to be fundamentally based on Weber's law of response to proportional stimuli, supporting many studies that find a neurological basis for this stimulus-response mechanism and providing a novel basis for the common assumption of linearly additive 'social forces' in simulation studies of collective behaviour.

We study accelerated mirror descent dynamics in continuous and discrete time. Combining the original continuous-time motivation of mirror descent with a recent ODE interpretation of Nesterov's accelerated method, we propose a family of continuous-time descent dynamics for convex functions with Lipschitz gradients, such that the solution trajectories converge to the optimum at a O(1/t2) rate. We then show that a large family of first-order accelerated methods can be obtained as a discretization of the ODE, and these methods converge at a O(1/k2) rate. This connection between accelerated mirror descent and the ODE provides an intuitive approach to the design and analysis of accelerated first-order algorithms.

Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.

Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects., Retraction in: PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY Volume: 9 Issue: 3 Article Number: e1002961 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002961