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52. Warming Tropical Indian Ocean Wets the Tibetan Plateau.

Author

Zhou, Aoqi, Yuan, Chaoxia, Luo, Jing‐Jia, and Yamagata, Toshio

Subjects
GENERAL circulation model, OCEAN, ATMOSPHERIC circulation, CLIMATE change, CYCLONES, GLOBAL warming
Abstract

Accurate detection and attribution of past climate change are crucial for projecting future climate change and formulating proper policies. In this study, we show that the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean contributes to the observed wetting trend in the Tibetan plateau. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can lead to more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating triggers the cyclonic atmospheric response in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa. It also causes the enhancement and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The in‐between airflow transports more moisture northward to the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation over the plateau. These large‐scale circulation patterns can be detected from the long‐term trends based on the observations and the large‐ensemble historical simulations. They can also be simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model forced by the observed warming merely in the tropical Indian Ocean. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan plateau, often referred to the "Asian water tower," is the source region of many major rivers in Asia. It has experienced an increasing precipitation trend over the past few decades. In this study, we show that the warming tropical Indian Ocean contributes to this wetting trend. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can cause more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating not only triggers an anomalous cyclone in the lower troposphere around the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa, but also causes the enhancement and westward extension of western North Pacific subtropical high. Consequently, the northward airflow between them transports more moisture to the plateau and causes more precipitation there. Our findings underscore the significant role of the warming tropical Indian Ocean in shaping the changing climate under global warming. Further research efforts are warranted to deepen our understanding of this phenomenon. Key Points: The warming tropical Indian Ocean increases the precipitation over the Arabian SeaThe associated large‐scale circulation anomalies transport more moisture northward to the plateauConsequently, more moisture converges over the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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53. Impacts of Atmospheric Internal Variations on the Variability of Sea Surface Temperature Based on the Hydra‐SINTEX Model.

Author

Zhang, Yi, Wu, Jiye, Zheng, Yongjun, and Luo, Jing‐Jia

Subjects
OCEAN temperature, CLIMATE sensitivity, SHAPE of the earth, LATITUDE, ATMOSPHERICS, ENVIRONMENTAL engineering, OCEAN, OCEAN-atmosphere interaction
Abstract

Ocean–atmosphere interactions largely control the variabilities of the climate system on Earth. However, how much atmospheric internal signals contribute to climate variabilities remains uncertain over many parts of the globe. Here, we develop an interactive ensemble coupled model (called Hydra‐SINTEX) to investigate the influences of atmospheric internal variations (AIVs) on the mean‐states and variability of the climate system. The results show that, while climatological mean‐states are little affected, the AIVs can largely influence climate variabilities over the globe. We pay particular attention to two regions, that is, the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, which is the key area of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the subtropical North Pacific. We found that sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities in these two regions are much reduced without the AIVs but with distinct mechanisms. Without the AIVs, the intensity of the IOD is largely reduced in association with weakened air–sea coupling in the tropics. This indicates the importance of atmospheric noise forcing on the development of the IOD. In contrast, the reduction of SST variability in the subtropical North Pacific is caused by the absence of the AIVs that are generated by both mid‐latitude atmospheric processes and weakened remote influence of the tropical SST in accordance with the reduced SST signals there. Plain Language Summary: Ocean–atmosphere interactions are pivotal in shaping Earth's climate system. However, how much atmospheric internal variations (AIVs) contribute to climate variabilities remains uncertain in many places over the globe. Here, we have devised an interactive ensemble coupled model (called Hydra‐SINTEX), allowing us to explore the impacts of the AIVs on the mean‐states and variabilities of the climate system. The results reveal that, while climatological mean‐states remain little affected, the AIVs significantly influence global climate variabilities. We focus on two specific regions: the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, a critical area for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the subtropical North Pacific. We have observed that SST variabilities in these regions are notably reduced in the absence of the AIVs through distinct mechanisms. In the case of the IOD, the absence of the AIVs leads to a considerable decrease in its intensity. This underscores the significance of atmospheric noise forcing in influencing the development of the IOD. Conversely, the reduction of SST variability in the subtropical North Pacific can be attributed to the absence of the AIVs generated by mid‐latitude atmospheric processes and the diminished influence of tropical SST signals. Key Points: A developed interactive ensemble model is to investigate the impacts of atmospheric internal variations (AIVs) on climate variabilitiesThe results suggest that the AIVs largely impact sea surface temperature (SST) variability but with distinct regional featuresWithout the AIVs, variabilities of the SST in the tropics and extra‐tropics are much reduced [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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60. DYNAMICS AND PREDICTABILITY OF EL NIÑO–SOUTHERN OSCILLATION : An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Author

Santoso, Agus, Hendon, Harry, Watkins, Andrew, Power, Scott, Dommenget, Dietmar, England, Matthew H., Frankcombe, Leela, Holbrook, Neil J., Holmes, Ryan, Hope, Pandora, Lim, Eun-Pa, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Neske, Sonja, Nguyen, Hanh, Pepler, Acacia, Rashid, Harun, Gupta, Alex Sen, Taschetto, Andréa S., Wang, Guomin, Abellán, Esteban, Sullivan, Arnold, Huguenin, Maurice F., Gamble, Felicity, and Delage, Francois

Published
2019

64. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

Author

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Timmermann, Axel, Luo, Jing-Jia, Mochizuki, Takashi, Kimoto, Masahide, Watanabe, Masahiro, Ishii, Masayoshi, Xie, Shang-Ping, and Jin, Fei-Fei

Abstract

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Published
2015

65. List of Contributors

Author

Behera, Swadhin Kumar, primary, Doi, Takeshi, additional, Engelbrecht, Francois, additional, Feng, Ming, additional, Han, Weiqing, additional, Hirata, Hidetaka, additional, Kamae, Youichi, additional, Karumuri, Ashok, additional, Kido, Shoichiro, additional, Kosaka, Yu, additional, Li, Tim, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Marathe, Shamal, additional, Morioka, Yushi, additional, Nonaka, Masami, additional, Oettli, Pascal, additional, Ratnam, J. Venkata, additional, Richter, Ingo, additional, Takaya, Yuhei, additional, Tokinaga, Hiroki, additional, Tozuka, Tomoki, additional, Wang, Tianyi, additional, Yuan, Chaoxia, additional, and Zhang, Lei, additional

Published
2021
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67. Basin Interactions and Predictability

Author

Keenlyside, Noel, primary, Kosaka, Yu, additional, Vigaud, Nicolas, additional, Robertson, Andrew W., additional, Wang, Yiguo, additional, Dommenget, Dietmar, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, and Matei, Daniela, additional

Published
2020
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68. Atlantic Warming Enhances the Influence of Atlantic Niño on ENSO.

Author

Wang, Ran, He, Jiaying, Luo, Jing‐Jia, and Chen, Lin

Subjects
EL Nino, OCEAN temperature, INTERTROPICAL convergence zone, OCEAN waves, OCEAN circulation, SOUTHERN oscillation
Abstract

The influence of Atlantic Niño on the following El Niño–Southern Oscillation becomes significant since mid‐1970s. However, exact mechanisms for this inter‐decadal change are still unclear. Here, we perform a set of model pacemaker experiments to probe the relative contributions of the changes in the Atlantic Niño itself and the mean‐state under global warming. The results suggest that the warmer background of the tropical Atlantic plays an essential role in enhancing local mean precipitation, inducing stronger divergence and low‐level easterlies in the Pacific. Under a favorable condition in the Pacific, even a weak Atlantic Niño‐related warming could promote the development of La Niña through cross‐basin Walker circulation and the Indian Ocean‐relayed Kelvin wave response. In contrast, the Atlantic Niño pattern change itself induces feeble convection anomalies in the western Atlantic, which cannot induce significant atmospheric response in the Pacific. These results imply an important modulation of global warming on the inter‐basin connection. Plain Language Summary: Climate phenomena in the three tropical oceans are tightly inter‐connected through atmospheric and oceanic pathways. The observations show that the influence of equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the evolution of the following El Niño–Southern Oscillation displays a noticeable multi‐decadal change. The inter‐basin influence is negligible in early decades but becomes statistically significant since mid‐1970s. To understand this multi‐decadal change, the changes in the remote impacts of the tropical Atlantic Niño are divided into those related to the changes in the Atlantic Niño itself and the background mean SST. By comparing their relative contributions, we find the warmer climatological mean SST excites incremental precipitation around the western tropical Atlantic and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), amplifying inter‐basin Walker circulation and the Indian Ocean relayed effect, and thus can more easily promote the evolution of La Niña in the following seasons. In contrast, despite the Atlantic Niño pattern broadens westwards in the recent decades, its induced‐feeble positive convection anomalies in the western Atlantic scarcely induce the atmospheric response over the tropical Pacific. Our results stress the vital role of the multi‐decadal SST warming in the tropical Atlantic and provide a plausible explanation for the multi‐decadal strengthening of this inter‐basin connection in recent decades. Key Points: The correlation between summer Atlantic Niño and the following El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) becomes significantly negative since 1976The warming‐induced tropical Atlantic mean‐state change, rather than the Atlantic Niño change itself, dominantly modulates the inter‐basin impact on ENSOThe climatological sea surface temperature/precipitation strengthened in the tropical Atlantic is important to exert the influence on ENSO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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71. The Tropics

Author

Diamond, Howard J., primary, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Allgood, Adam, additional, Becker, Emily J., additional, Blake, Eric S., additional, Bringas, Francis G., additional, Camargo, Suzana J., additional, Chen, Lin, additional, Coelho, Caio A.S., additional, Fauchereau, Nicolas, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Goldenberg, Stanley B., additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Harnos, Daniel S., additional, He, Qiong, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Klotzbach, Philip J., additional, Knaff, John A., additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, L’Heureux, Michelle, additional, Landsea, Chris W., additional, Lin, I-I., additional, Lorrey, Andrew M., additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Magee, Andrew D., additional, Pasch, Richard J., additional, Pezza, Alexandre B., additional, Rosencrans, Matthew, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Trewin, Blair C., additional, Truchelut, Ryan E., additional, Wang, Bin, additional, Wang, Hui, additional, and Wood, Kimberly M., additional

Published
2023
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72. Introduction

Author

Boyer, Tim, primary, Bartow-Gillies, Ellen, additional, Abida, A., additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Ahmasuk, Brandon, additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alexe, Mihai, additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Allgood, Adam, additional, Alves, Lincoln. M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Andrade, B., additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Arguez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Atkinson, C., additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Backensto, Stacia A., additional, Bader, Stephan, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Baiman, Rebecca, additional, Ballinger, Thomas J., additional, Banwell, Alison F., additional, Bardin, M. Yu, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Barnes, John E., additional, Barreira, Sandra, additional, Beadling, Rebecca L., additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Becker, Emily J., additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bellido, Guillem Martín, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Benestad, Rasmus, additional, Berne, Christine, additional, Berner, Logan. T., additional, Bernhard, Germar H., additional, Bhatt, Uma S., additional, Bhuiyan, A. E., additional, Bigalke, Siiri, additional, Biló, Tiago, additional, Bissolli, Peter, additional, Bjerke Jarle, W., additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blake, Eric S., additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Blunden, Jessica, additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodenstein, Barbara, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Bozkurt, Deniz, additional, Brettschneider, Brian, additional, Bringas, Francis G., additional, Bringas, Francis, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Camargo, Suzana J., additional, Campbell, Jayaka, additional, Campos, Diego, additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Chan, Duo, additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Chen, Hua, additional, Chen, Lin, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Chomiak, Leah, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Clarke, Leonardo, additional, Clem, Kyle R., additional, Clingan, Scott, additional, Coelho, Caio A.S., additional, Cohen, Judah L., additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Colwell, Steve, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Coy, Lawrence, additional, Créatux, Jean-François, additional, Crhova, Lenka, additional, Crimmins, Theresa, additional, Cronin, Meghan F., additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Culpepper, Joshua, additional, Cunha, Ana P., additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Datta, Rajashree T., additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, De Bock, Veerle, additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, De Laat, Jos, additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Derksen, Chris, additional, Deus, Ricardo, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Diamond, Howard J., additional, Dirkse, S., additional, Divine, Dmitry, additional, Dokulil, Martin T., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Drost Jensen, Caroline, additional, Druckenmiller, Matthew L., additional, Drumond, Paula, additional, du Plessis, Marcel, additional, Dugan, Hilary A., additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, Dunmire, Devon, additional, Dunn, Robert J. H., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dusek, Robert, additional, Dutton, Geoff, additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Ekici, Mithat, additional, Elias Chereque, Alesksandra, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Epstein, Howard E., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Estrella, Nicole, additional, Fauchereau, Nicolas, additional, Fausto, Robert S., additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Fioletov, vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Fogt, Ryan L., additional, Forbes, Bruce C., additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Freeman, Natalie M., additional, Fricker, Helen A., additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Frost, Gerald V. (JJ), additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Gao, Meng, additional, Gardner, Alex S., additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gerland, Sebastian, additional, Gibbes, Badin, additional, Gille, Sarah T., additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Goetz, Scott J., additional, Goldenberg, Stanley B., additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Goto, Atsushi, additional, Grooß, Jens-Uwe, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Gu, Guojun, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, S., additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Bradley D., additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Hanna, Edward, additional, Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, additional, Harnos, Daniel S., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, He, Qiong, additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hemming, Deborah L., additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hicks, J., additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-peng (Ben), additional, Hobbs, W., additional, Holmes, Robert M., additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hu, Guojie, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Huang, Hongjie, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Ialongo, Iolanda, additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jadra, Gerardo, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Johns, W., additional, Johnsen, Bjørn, additional, Johnson, Bryan, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Jones, Timothy, additional, Josey, Simon A., additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaler, Robb S.A., additional, Kaleschke, Lars, additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, additional, Keller, Linda M., additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kendon, Mike, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kim, Mi Ju, additional, Kim, Seong-Joong, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Klotzbach, Philip J., additional, Knaff, John A., additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kraemer, Benjamin M., additional, Kramarova, Natalya A., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Kruger, Andries, additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, L’Heureux, Michelle, additional, La Fuente, Sofia, additional, Laas, Alo, additional, Labe, Zachary M., additional, Lader, Rick, additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Lakkala, Kaisa, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Landsea, Chris W., additional, Lang, Timothy, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lara, Mark J., additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lavers, David A., additional, Lazzara, Matthew A., additional, Leblanc, Thierry, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leibensperger, Eric M., additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Lieser, Jan L., additional, Likso, Tanja, additional, Lin, I-I., additional, Lindsey, Jackie, additional, Liu, Yakun, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loomis, Bryant D., additional, Lorrey, Andrew M., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Lumpkin, Rick, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Luojus, Kari, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Maberly, Stephen C., additional, Macander, Matthew J., additional, MacFerrin, Michael, additional, MacGilchrist, Graeme A., additional, MacLennan, Michelle L., additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Magee, Andrew D., additional, Magnin, Florence, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Mankoff, Ken D., additional, Manney, Gloria L., additional, Marcinonienė, Izolda, additional, Marengo, Jose A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, Massom, Robert A., additional, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro, additional, May, Linda, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Mazloff, Matthew R., additional, McAfee, Stephanie A., additional, McBride, C., additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McClelland, James W., additional, McPhaden, Michael J., additional, Mcvicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Meier, Walter N., additional, Mekonnen, A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Meyer, Michael F., additional, Meyers, Tristan, additional, Mikolajczyk, David E., additional, Miller, John B., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Mishonov, Alexey, additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Moesinger, Leander, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Monet, Ghislaine, additional, Montzka, Stephan A., additional, Moon, Twila A., additional, Moore, G. W. K., additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Morán, Johnny, additional, Morehen, Claire, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mostafa, A. E., additional, Mote, Thomas L., additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Mudryk, Lawrence, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Müller, Rolf, additional, Nance, David, additional, Nash, Eric R., additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Newman, Paul A., additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, Norton, Taylor, additional, Nyland, Kelsey E., additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Ochwat, Naomi, additional, Oikawa, Yoshinori, additional, Okunaka, Yuka, additional, Osborn, Timothy J., additional, Overland, James E., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Parrington, Mark, additional, Parrish, Julia K., additional, Pasch, Richard J., additional, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, additional, Pellet, Cécile, additional, Pelto, Mauri S., additional, Perčec Tadić, Melita, additional, Perovich, Donald K., additional, Petersen, Guðrún Nína, additional, Petersen, Kyle, additional, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, additional, Petty, Alek, additional, Pezza, Alexandre B., additional, Pezzi, Luciano P., additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Phoenix, Gareth K., additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Pires, Vanda, additional, Pitts, Michael, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Pogliotti, Paolo, additional, Poinar, Kristin, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Qiu, Bo, additional, Quisbert, Kenny, additional, Quispe, Willy R., additional, Rajeevan, M., additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rantanen, Mika, additional, Raphael, Marilyn N., additional, Reagan, James, additional, Recalde, Cristina, additional, Reid, Phillip, additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Ricker, Robert, additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Rocha, Willy, additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Rosencrans, Matthew, additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Rösner, Benjamin, additional, Rösner, Henrieke, additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Rubek, Frans, additional, Rusanovskaya, Olga O., additional, Rutishauser, This, additional, Sabeerali, C. T., additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Santee, Michelle L., additional, Santini, Marcelo, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Sayouri, A., additional, Scambos, Theodore, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schimanke, Semjon, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Schmid, Martin, additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Schultz, Cristina, additional, _, _, additional, Segele, Z. T., additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Serbin, Shawn P., additional, Serreze, Mark C., additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Sezaki, Fumi, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Sharp, Jonathan D., additional, Sheffield, Gay, additional, Shi, Jia-Rui, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Shiklomanov, Alexander I., additional, Shiklomanov, Nikolay I., additional, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., additional, Shukla, R., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Silow, Eugene A., additional, Sima, F., additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Smith, Matthew M., additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Souza, Everaldo, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, additional, Spencer, Robert G. M., additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stammerjohn, Sharon, additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stella, Jose L., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Strahan, Susan E., additional, Streletskiy, Dmitry A., additional, Surendran, Divya E., additional, Suslova, Anya, additional, Svendby, Tove, additional, Sweet, William, additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Takemura, Kazuto, additional, Tank, Suzanne E., additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Tedesco, Marco, additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thiaw, W. M., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Thoman, Richard L., additional, Thompson, Andrew F., additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Timofeyev, Maxim A., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Tømmervik, Hans, additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Tretiakov, Mikhail, additional, Trewin, Blair C., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Trotman, Adrian, additional, Truchelut, Ryan E., additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, Van Hemert, Caroline, additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, van vliet, Arnold J.H., additional, Vazife, Ahad, additional, Verburg, Piet, additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastián, additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Walker, Donald (Skip) A., additional, Walsh, John E., additional, Wang, Bin, additional, Wang, Hui, additional, Wang, Muyin, additional, Wang, Ray H. 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Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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76. Deep learning for multi-year ENSO forecasts

Author

Ham, Yoo-Geun, Kim, Jeong-Hwan, and Luo, Jing-Jia

Subjects
Cable News Network, Cable television broadcasting industry -- Analysis, Ecosystems -- Analysis, Neural networks -- Analysis, Neural network, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are associated with a wide array of regional climate extremes and ecosystem impacts.sup.1. Robust, long-lead forecasts would therefore be valuable for managing policy responses. But despite decades of effort, forecasting ENSO events at lead times of more than one year remains problematic.sup.2. Here we show that a statistical forecast model employing a deep-learning approach produces skilful ENSO forecasts for lead times of up to one and a half years. To circumvent the limited amount of observation data, we use transfer learning to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) first on historical simulations.sup.3 and subsequently on reanalysis from 1871 to 1973. During the validation period from 1984 to 2017, the all-season correlation skill of the Nino3.4 index of the CNN model is much higher than those of current state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems. The CNN model is also better at predicting the detailed zonal distribution of sea surface temperatures, overcoming a weakness of dynamical forecast models. A heat map analysis indicates that the CNN model predicts ENSO events using physically reasonable precursors. The CNN model is thus a powerful tool for both the prediction of ENSO events and for the analysis of their associated complex mechanisms. A statistical forecast model using a deep-learning approach produces useful forecasts of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events with lead times of up to one and a half years., Author(s): Yoo-Geun Ham [sup.1] , Jeong-Hwan Kim [sup.1] , Jing-Jia Luo [sup.2] [sup.3] Author Affiliations: (1) Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea (2) Institute for Climate and [...]

Published
2019
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84. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity

Author

Timmermann, Axel, An, Soon-Il, Kug, Jong-Seong, Jin, Fei-Fei, Cai, Wenju, Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Lengaigne, Matthieu, McPhaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Stein, Karl, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Yun, Kyung-Sook, Bayr, Tobias, Chen, Han-Ching, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Dewitte, Boris, Dommenget, Dietmar, Grothe, Pamela, Guilyardi, Eric, Ham, Yoo-Geun, Hayashi, Michiya, Ineson, Sarah, Kang, Daehyun, Kim, Sunyong, Kim, WonMoo, Lee, June-Yi, Li, Tim, Luo, Jing-Jia, McGregor, Shayne, Planton, Yann, Power, Scott, Rashid, Harun, Ren, Hong-Li, Santoso, Agus, Takahashi, Ken, Todd, Alexander, Wang, Guomin, Wang, Guojian, Xie, Ruihuang, Yang, Woo-Hyun, Yeh, Sang-Wook, Yoon, Jinho, Zeller, Elke, and Zhang, Xuebin

Published
2018
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92. Synoptic characteristics of heatwave events in Australia during austral summer of 1950/1951–2019/2020.

Author

Wei, Jinghua, Wang, Bin, Luo, Jing‐Jia, Li, Chao, and Yuan, Chaoxia

Subjects
HEAT waves (Meteorology), ORTHOGONAL functions, ANTICYCLONES, HEAT flux, HEAT radiation & absorption, CYCLONES
Abstract

Australia has experienced increasing number of heatwave events (HWEs) in recent decades. This study aims to examine key synoptic features of austral summer HWEs over Australia during 1950/1951–2019/2020. Based on ERA5‐reanalysis and rotated empirical orthogonal functions, HWEs in Australia are categorized into four types according to where they often occur together: East Australia (EA), North Australia (NA), West Australia (WA) and Southeast Australia (SEA). Our results reveal that while anomalous anticyclones at 500 hPa level are the typical synoptic circulations responsible for HWEs of each subregion, their specific mechanisms differ between subregions. The atmospheric heat budget at 850 hPa level shows that anomalous diabatic heating promotes the onset of HWEs in each subregion. While anomalous vertical advection and adiabatic heating due to the anomalous subsidence play an important role in maintaining HWEs till their demise in NA, they only help trigger HWEs in EA, SEA and WA. Our results also suggest that anomalous advection of climatological mean temperature is important to both the onset and persistence of HWEs in EA and SEA, while it only helps sustain (trigger) HWEs in NA (WA). The advection of anomalous temperature also acts to trigger HWEs in EA, SEA and WA. On the surface, upward long‐wave radiation and sensible heat flux contribute to the development of HWEs, whereas both of them are reduced in SEA due to the enhanced anomalous cyclones near the surface and the decreased land–air temperature difference. These findings help improve understanding of the synoptic characteristics and distinctive mechanisms of HWEs in different subregions of Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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