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In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impacts remain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. These processes occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities. For each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches for modelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data and computational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integrated framework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling efforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius--a relatively new invasive wood wasp in eastern North America. Key words: invasive species, integrated modelling, risk assessment, impact assessment, Sirex noctilio. Les auteurs presentent le survol d'une approche integree pour la modelisation des risques et des impacts associes aux pestes foreslieres non indigenes. II s'agit d'un sujet large et important, compte lenu de l'echelle el des consequences economiques associees aux especes non indigenes, en Amerique du Nord et ailleurs. Les evaluations de risques el d'impacis demeureni diffieiles a cause de la complexity el des inieraclions avec plusieurs facteurs responsables des invasions el de leurs consequences. Ces processus s'effectuent selon differences echelles spatio-temporelles, et sont souvent influences et compliques par les activites humaines. Pour chaque composante d'une invasion ecologique (c.-a-d. arrivee, etablissement et diffusion), les auteurs passent en revue les approches generates pour la modelisation du phenomene ainsi que I'identification des donnees et les manques de connaissance. Avec la disponibilite accrue de diverses donnees spatiales et des capacites informatiques, les auteurs suggerent la possibilite de lier les modeles de chaque composante dans un cadre plus integre, permettant ainsi de mieux incorporer les interactions et les retroactions entre les composantes dans les efforts de modelisation des risques. On illustre cette approche en utilisant des exemples provenant du travail actuel sur le Sirex noctilio Fabricius, une guepe perce-bois envahissante relativement nouvelle dans l'est de l'Amerique du Nord. Mots-cles : especes envahissantes, modelisation integree, evaluation des risques, evaluation des impacts, Sirex noctilio. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The management of non-indigenous species is complex, but critical given potentially large economic and ecological impacts. Gross annual economic losses and control costs in agricultural and forestry sectors due [...]

This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 x 106 and 115 x 106 m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease shortterm losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 x 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information. Cette etude presente un modele qui evalue l'impact potentiel d'une nouvelle espece d'insecte exotique, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, sur les stocks de bois de pin et les activites de recolte dans l'est du Canada. Les auteurs ont integre la propagation de S. noctilio a un modele de croissance a grande echelle et d'allocation de la recolte. Les projections concernant la mortalite du pin varient de 25 x [10.sup.6] and 115 x [10.sup.6] sur 20 ans selon les hypotheses de propagation et d'impact de S. noctilio. Leur modele indique que l'Ontario pourrait subir les pertes les plus elevees tres tot (78 % des pertes potentielles de tout l'est du Canada) et le Quebec, presque toutes les pertes a venir au cours de la periode s'etendant sur les 20 prochaines annees. Les pertes annuelles pourraient atteindre 86-254 millions $ apres 20 ans. La valeur actualisee nette des pertes totales de recolte apres 28 annees d'epidemie varie de 0,7 a 2,1 milliards $. Des strategies d'adaptation diminueraient les pertes a court terme de 46-55 % et retarderaient les pires recoltes de 9-11 ans. Sans adaptation de la recolte, l'incapacite a maintenir les niveaux de possibilite annuelle de coupe pourrait survenir lorsque la superficie totale infestee depassera 15 x [10.sup.6] ha. Bien que d'importants efforts restent a faire pour mieux comprendre et representer le comportement de S. noctilio, il y a une forte demande de la part des decideurs pour ce type d'informations. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The impact of alien invasive species on timber supply and harvest activities has been identified as one of the most immediate and potentially damaging threats to Canadian forests (Natural [...]

Abstract: We have developed a spatial cost-benefit afforestation model that includes the tracking of five carbon pools. In this application we represent three possible afforestation strategies that could be implemented [...]

Abstract: We established 480 remeasurement plots in plantations originally laid out by F.W. von Althen in the 1970s and 1980s for his pioneering work on hardwood planting in southern Ontario. [...]

The Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) continues to pose a significant risk to deciduous forests around the world. We assess Asian longhorned beetle-related risks in eastern Canada by generating current and future climate suitability maps, import-based likelihood of introduction estimates for each urban center in our study area, and potential economic impacts in both urban and natural settings. For the current period, climatic suitability for Asian longhorned beetle was highest in southern Ontario, but was projected to expand significantly northward and eastward by midcentury. High likelihood of Asian longhorned beetle introduction was associated with large urban centers, but also smaller centers with high levels of pest-associated imports. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of Asian longhorned beetle-impacted street trees ranged from CDN$8.6 to $12.2 billion, with the exact amount and city-level ranking depending on the method used to calculate risk. Potential losses of merchantable maple (Acer) timber were estimated at CDN$1.6 billion using provincial stumpage fees and CDN$431 million annually when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. The gross value of edible maple products, which could potentially be affected by Asian longhorned beetle, was estimated at CDN$358 million annually. These values can help inform the scale of early detection surveys, potential eradication efforts, and research budgets in the event of future Asian longhorned beetle introductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is the most challenging issue of our time. While climate change is often portrayed as a global phenomenon, the real impacts of climate change are felt at the local level. Changes in climatic conditions directly affect the level of precipitation which is very important for crop production in Ontario. How do changes in climate affect corn and soybean yields at the county level in Ontario? This question is addressed in this paper by estimating the effects of climatic and economic factors on yields of grain corn and soybean in three selected counties in Southwestern Ontario employing data from 1950 to 2013. The results demonstrate that the effect of precipitation during growing season on yield is positive and statistically significant and it is consistent across the selected counties. The effects of solar energy on crop yields vary across counties. Yields of both crops increase as crop price increases and decline as the price of fertilizer increases. Finally, developments in technology have a strong effect on enhancing yield for both crops. The climatic factors have a larger impact than the effects of economic factors on corn yields at the county level. The reverse, however, appears to be true for soybean production at the county level in Ontario. The policy implications of the results are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study integrates net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce regeneration-both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent financial attractiveness. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3·ha-1. A baseline case with the stumpage price set to $20 m-3, stand establishment cost $500 ha-1, and the discount rate 4%, was used with wide-ranging sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. These values represent the wide range of choices and outcomes possible with black spruce regeneration investments. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in economic attractiveness, with higher forest productivity and NPVs in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce regeneration was not economically attractive unless regeneration costs were very low (representing something closer to a natural regeneration type scenario) and/or carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton-1 CO2 were realized. In general, the optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. Results of this study highlight the importance of future price and yield expectations and establishment costs in evaluating forest investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]