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Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months.

Air temperature fields are required as input to spatial models in ecology, geocryology, and biogeochemistry. Air temperature data from a sparse, irregular meteorological network in the Kuparuk region of north-central Alaska were interpolated spatially and temporally to provide a 13-year (1987-1999) series of thawing degree-day fields at 1 km² resolution. Procedures involved standardizing diverse temperature records and applying topographically and climatologically aided interpolation, using station data and digital elevation models, to incorporate the effects of local topography. The accuracy of the interpolation procedures was assessed using cross validation. Considering the number of data points used for interpolation, their distribution, and the size of the area, the combination of climatologically assisted and topographically informed spatial interpolation procedures provides adequate representation of the annual degree-day fields for the Kuparuk region. Spatially integrated mean absolute error does not exceed 3% in any year. To investigate the spatial distribution of interpolation uncertainties, the cross-validation errors obtained at each station for each year were interpolated spatially to a regular 1 × 1 km grid consistent with the degree-day fields.

The threat to man-made structures across regions in the far north can be monitored. The thawing and disappearance of permafrost has accelerated in recent decades1, damaging buildings and infrastructure and causing public concern2. Here we offer a geographic overview of the hazard potential associated with thawing permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere which indicates that vulnerability to subsidence is widespread. Much of the existing infrastructure erected in northern regions is located in areas of high hazard potential and could be affected by thaw subsidence under conditions of global warming.

Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000). In their recent paper entitled 'An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in Eurasian high latitudes', Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) provided detailed analysis of soil temperature data to assess 1930–2000 trends in seasonal freezing depth. The data were obtained from 387 Soviet non-permafrost meteorological stations. The authors performed systematic, quality-controlled, integrative analysis over the entire former Soviet Union domain. The long-term changes in depth of seasonal freezing were discussed in relation to such forcing variables as air temperature, degree days of freezing/thawing, snow depth and summer precipitation as well as modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatially average approach adopted for the study provides a generalized continental-scale trend. The study greatly improves, expands and extends previous 1956–90 analysis of the ground thermal regime over the Eurasian high latitudes (Frauenfeld et al 2004). Although the work of Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) is the most comprehensive assessment of the continental-scale long-term trends in seasonal freezing available to date, more detailed analysis is needed to determine the effect of climate change on seasonally frozen ground. It should be noted that, in addition to the variables considered for analysis, other non-climatic factors affect the depth of freezing propagation. Unlike the surface, which is influenced by the climate directly, the ground even at shallow depth receives a climatic signal that is substantially modified by edaphic processes, contributing to highly localized thermal sensitivities of the ground to climatic forcing. Subsurface properties, soil moisture, and snow and vegetation covers influence the depth of freezing. Topography also plays an important role in establishing the ground thermal regime. It is an important determinant of the amount of heat received by the ground surface, affects the distribution of snow and vegetation, and influences the surface and subsurface moisture regimes. As a result, the ground temperature and the related depth of freezing propagation are characterized by very high variability over short lateral distances. The data used for analysis by Frauenfeld and Zhang are single-point measurements obtained from a network of stations sparsely distributed over a very large spatial domain. Since no variability in edaphic conditions was considered, the presented results should be interpreted with some degree of caution. In addition, long-term soil observations at a single point using unautomated techniques unavoidably cause site disturbance, which may significantly modify the ground thermal regime over time. I would like to emphasize that the generalized continental trend in the depth of seasonal freezing presented by Frauenfeld and Zhang is very likely associated with changes in atmospheric forcing. However, any long-term continental trends of such a spatially heterogeneous and sensitive parameter as shallow soil temperature potentially include a significant non-climatic component. Although the single-point temperature data used by Frauenfeld and Zhang might not be sufficient to fully evaluate the localized effects on the overall trend, they are a terrific asset for further studies on climate and ground thermal regime. Detailed spatial assessment of the available ground temperature records over relatively homogeneous regions is a necessary next step in the assessment of climate-induced changes in seasonally frozen ground. Such an analysis is likely to show significant regional differences in long-term freeze propagation trends over Northern Eurasia and reveal region-specific sensitivities of the ground thermal regime to climatic forcing. References Brown R D and Robinson D A 2011 Northern hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty Cryosphere 5 219–29 Callaghan T V, Tweedie C E and Webber P J 2011 Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPYBTF) AMBIO 40 555–7 Frauenfeld O W and Zhang T 2011 An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in the Eurasian high latitudes Environ. Res. Lett. 6 044024 Frauenfeld O W, Zhang T, Barry R G and Gilichinsky D 2004 Interdecadal changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths in Russia J. Geophys. Res. 109 D5101 Gilichinsky D A et al 2000 Use of the data of hydrometeorological survey for century history of soil temperature trends in the seasonally frozen and permafrost areas of Russia Earth Cryosp. 4 59–66 (in Russian) Riseborough D, Shiklomanov N I, Etselmuller B and Gruber S 2008 Recent advances in permafrost modeling Permafr. Pereglac. Process. 19 137–56 Romanovsky V E et al 2010 Thermal state of permafrost in Russia Permafr. Periglac. Process. 21 136–55 Schuur E A G et al 2008 Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle Bioscience 58 701–14 Serreze M C and Francis J A 2006 The Arctic amplification debate Clim. Change 76 241–64 Shiklomanov N I, Nelson F E, Streletskiy D A, Hinkel K M and Brown J 2008 The circumpolar active layer monitoring (CALM) program: data collection, management, and dissemination strategies Proc. of the 9th International Conf. on Permafrost (Fairbanks, AK, 29 June–3 July 2008) vol 1, pp 1647–52 Zhao L, Ping C L, Yang D, Cheng G, Ding Y and Liu S 2004 Changes of climate and seasonally frozen ground over the past 30 years in Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China Glob. Planet. Change 43 19–31

We compared 22 pedons derived from silty materials in moist nonacidic tundra (MNT) and moist acidic tundra (MAT) in the arctic foothills of the 9200-km2 Kuparuk River basin in northern Alaska. Soils in MNT have thinner organic horizons, a significantly thicker active layer, and greater cryoturbation than soils in MAT. The quantities of clay and organic-plus-inorganic C in the upper 100 cm are comparable; however, soils in MNT have significantly greater amounts of extractable Ca, Mg, and sum of base cations and significantly lower amounts of exchangeable acidity and Al than soils in MAT. Tissues from forbs, sedges, and woody shrubs in MNT have two to three times as much Ca as the same or similar species in MAT. The area of nonsorted circles was significantly greater in MNT (9.6%) than in MAT (0.9%). Although the existence of nonacidic tundra in the Arctic has been known for some time, its origin and distribution have not been fully explained. Our data link soil and vegetation properties and indicate that cryoturbation plays an important role in maintaining MNT in arctic Alaska.