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[1] In the paper ‘‘Evaluation of ERA-40, NCEP-1, and NCEP-2 reanalysis air temperatureswith ground-basedmeasurements in China’’ by L. Ma et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D15115, doi:101.1029/2007JD009549), a printer error was introduced in the abstract, giving an incorrect year. The first sentence of the abstract should read as follows: We assess the correspondence of reanalysis air temperatures from ERA-40, NCEP-1, and NCEP-2 with homogenized observational data from China for 1958–2001 and 1979–2001. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, D18199, doi:10.1029/2008JD010981, 2008

[1] We assess the correspondence of reanalysis air temperatures from ERA-40, NCEP-1, and NCEP-2 with homogenized observational data from China for 1958–2001 and 1979–2001. Results indicate that climatologies for annual ERA-40, NCEP-1, and NCEP-2 air temperatures are lower than observations by −0.93°C, −2.78°C, and −2.27°C, respectively. Large negative differences for most of western China primarily contribute to this cool bias. Error analysis indicates that the internal coherence of ERA-40 data is better than NCEP-1 or NCEP-2. Although NCEP-2 air temperatures represent an improvement over NCEP-1, biases of NCEP-1 and NCEP-2 data relative to observations are still much larger than for ERA-40. Areas with positive/negative air temperature differences (dT) between reanalysis and observational data correspond to negative/positive elevation differences (dH). The high correlation coefficients of −0.94, −0.88, and −0.85 between dT and dH for ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and observations, respectively, illustrate that the air temperature differences between reanalysis data and observations are primarily related to elevation differences. Furthermore, a spatial and temporal comparison of trends also indicates that ERA-40 temperature changes correspond most closely to observed trends in China. In general, our comprehensive analysis of the three global reanalysis products indicates that, both on a seasonal and annual basis, ERA-40 temperatures correspond most closely to observations, and biases are due mainly to the elevation differences.

Spatial variability and temporal trends of the shallow ground thermal regime and permafrost active-layer thickness (ALT) were estimated over 1963–2013 using daily soil temperature data available from stations of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service. Correlation analysis was used to evaluate the role of changing climatic conditions on the ground thermal regime. ALT data collected by the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring program in Russia were used to expand the geography of ALT observations over 1999–2013, and to identify 'hot spots' of soil temperature and ALT change. Results indicate that a substantially higher rate of change in the thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils prevailed during 1999–2013, relative to the last fifty years. Results indicate that the thermal regime of the upper permafrost in western Russia is strongly associated with air temperature, with much weaker relationships in central and eastern Russia. The thermal regime of permafrost-affected soils shows stronger dependence on climatic conditions over the last fifteen years relative to the historical 50-year period. Geostatistical analysis revealed that the cities of Norilsk and Susuman are hot spots of permafrost degradation. Of six settlements selected for detailed analysis in various parts of the permafrost regions, all but one (Chukotka), show substantial changes in the shallow ground thermal regime. Northern locations in the continuous permafrost region show thickening of the active layer, while those farther south experienced development of residual thaw layers above the permafrost and decreases in the duration of the freezing period.

[1] Soil temperature is an important indicator of frozen ground status, driven at least partly by air temperature variability. In this study we apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to detect trends and oscillations in annual and seasonal time series of surface air temperature (SAT) and soil temperature (ST). We investigate soil temperatures at depths of 0.4, 1.6, and 3.2 m for five permafrost-occupied regions in Russia. We use SAT data for 1902–1995 and ST data for 1960–1990. The trends show an increase in annual SAT and ST from the end of the 1960s across all five regions, and this warming exceeds that of the preceding period in the Central Siberian Plateau and Transbaikalia. Oscillations in annual SAT and ST time series are coincident in the West Siberian Plain (7.7 year period) and in the western Central Siberian Plateau and Transbaikalia (2.7 year period). In general, on a seasonal basis, 2–3 year oscillations in ST and SAT are coincident during winter, spring, and autumn across the regions and are also evident in the annual ST time series in the Central Siberian Plateau and Transbaikalia. We also find a decadal oscillation (9.8 year period), which is coincident for winter SAT and ST, over the western Central Siberian Plateau only. Although summer SAT and ST oscillations (5–8 year periods) are coincident for all investigated territories (except to the east of the Lena River), in the annual ST time series they are identified only for the West Siberian Plain. We document the degree to which SAT controls ST in each region and explore the causative factors for some of the dominant periods. The maximum effect of SAT increases on permafrost may be observed in the Central Siberian Plateau and Transbaikalia, while elsewhere the observed ST increases do not threaten permafrost areas.

[1] Changes in active layer thickness (ALT) over northern high-latitude permafrost regions have important impacts on the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface, plant growth, and ecosystems as a whole. This study examines the 20th century variations of ALT for the Ob, Yenisey, and Lena River basins. ALT is estimated from historical soil temperature measurements from 17 stations (1956–1990, Lena basin only), an annual thawing index based on both surface air temperature data (1901–2002) and numerical modeling (1980–2002). The latter two provide spatial fields. Based on the thawing index, the long-term average (1961–1990) ALT is about 1.87 m in the Ob, 1.67 in the Yenisey, and 1.69 m in the Lena basin. Over the past several decades, ALT over the three basins shows positive trends, but with different magnitudes. Based on the 17 stations, ALT increased about 0.32 m between 1956 and 1990 in the Lena. To the extent that results based on the soil temperatures represent ground “truth,” ALT obtained from both the thawing index and numerical modeling is underestimated. It is widely believed that ALT will increase with global warming. However, this hypothesis needs further refinement since ALT responds primarily to summer air temperature while observed warming has occurred mainly in winter and spring. It is also shown that ALT exhibits complex and inconsistent responses to variations in snow cover.

[1] Surface air temperature measurements from meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau are compared to 2-m temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40) to assess the accuracy of this reanalysis product. We focus on ERA-40 grid cells containing at least four stations. The reanalysis temperatures are consistently lower, by as much as 7°C. However, temporal correlations are high, indicating that ERA-40 captures the interannual variability very well. The temperature bias is almost exclusively due to differences between the grid cell and the station elevations. We conclude that the ERA-40 temperatures provide better spatial fields of temperature than is possible with stations in this topographically complex, data-sparse area. Using this spatially and temporally continuous data set, we provide a temperature climatology and assess long-term climate trends. The high elevations of the western plateau are generally 10°C cooler than the eastern plateau. During winter, 2-m temperatures are below 0°C on the entire plateau, with summer values of only 0°C in the west and 10°C in the east. While station records point to a long-term climate warming trend, no trends are observed in ERA-40. This could be due to inadequacies of the reanalysis data, although we see no evidence of anomalous nonclimatic shifts. The significant trends in station data may reflect the extensive land use change and industrialization that has occurred on the Tibetan Plateau. Reanalysis data are less influenced by these local effects.

[1] Seasonal freezing and thawing processes in cold regions play a major role in ecosystem diversity, productivity, and the Arctic hydrological system. Long-term changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths are also important indicators of climate change. Only sparse historical measurements of seasonal freeze and thaw depths are available for permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. Using mean monthly soil temperature data for 1930–1990 for 242 stations located throughout Russia, we employed a linear interpolation method to determine the depth of the 0°C isotherm based on soil temperature data measured between 0.2 m and 3.2 m depth. The relationship between available observed annual maximum freeze and thaw depths and our interpolated values indicates a perfect correlation. A comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in these new interpolated data for Russia indicates that in permafrost regions, active layer depths have been steadily increasing. In the period 1956–1990 the active layer exhibited a statistically significant deepening by approximately 20 cm. The changes in the seasonally frozen ground areas are even greater: The depth of the freezing layer decreased 34 cm between 1956 and 1990. Potential forcings of the observed changes include air temperature, freezing and thawing index, and snow depth. Correlation and multiple regression reveal that active layer depth is most strongly related to snow depth. Air temperature, both mean annual and thawing index, is also significantly related to changes in the active layer. Freeze depth is influenced most strongly by the freezing index and mean annual air temperature, although snow depth is also a significant contributor. Air temperature and snow depth have been changing less in the seasonally frozen ground regions of Russia compared to permafrost regions, although observed changes in freeze depth are greater than changes in active layer depth for 1930–1990. This indicates that the seasonally frozen ground regions of the Russian high latitudes are more susceptible to climate change than the Russian permafrost. However, as temperatures have been rising, especially in the high-latitude continental regions, both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions are being greatly impacted. These changes can potentially result in increased river runoff and changes in discharge throughout the Russian Arctic drainage basin, as well as changes in high-latitude ecosystems.

[1] Trends in the Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex at 700, 500, and 300 hPa are examined to assess the relationship between circulation variability and air temperature. A vortex climatology is developed for the period 1949–2000. At each pressure level, three geopotential height contours are used to quantify the size and position of the vortex at 5° longitude resolution within and both north and south of the primary hemispheric baroclinic zone. This combination of spatial specificity and the long temporal record makes this the most comprehensive vortex climatology to date. The overall and seasonal vortex time series for the Northern Hemisphere are created for northern, middle, and southern contours at each of the three levels in the atmosphere. From the beginning of the record until 1970, the vortex exhibits a statistically significant expansion, but the vortex has been contracting significantly since then at all levels. The pre-1970 expansion and subsequent contraction is strongest in the lower latitudes and weakest in the higher latitudes. The trends are also stronger in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere. Spatial examination of the vortex indicates that the pre-1970 expansion and post-1970 contraction were driven primarily by expansion/contraction over Asia, Europe, and North America with little change over the Northern Hemisphere oceans. Although significant climate change debate focuses on the discrepancy between positive trends in surface air temperature and little or no trends in Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite temperatures, contraction of the circumpolar vortex at every level of the atmosphere implies that the atmosphere is warming at depth since 1970. Comparisons with the MSU temperature history indicate that the Northern Hemisphere circulation as a whole, as represented by the circumpolar vortex, accounts for almost two thirds of the interannual variability in midlatitude MSU temperature, indicating that vortex size and position are coupled strongly to atmospheric temperature and could be a good indicator of climate change. On a latitude-by-latitude and level-by-level basis, the lower latitudes are associated most strongly with MSU temperature in the midtroposphere while the middle and higher latitudes are more closely associated with MSU temperature in the upper troposphere. The vortex trends are also similar to observed surface warming trends.

In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in high-latitude areas, particularly to the cryosphere. Sea ice extent and thickness have declined. In land areas, glaciers and ice sheets are experiencing negative mass balance changes, and there is substantial regional snow cover variability. Subsurface changes are also occurring in northern soils. This study focuses on these changes in the soil thermal regime, specifically the seasonally frozen ground region of Eurasia. We use a database of soil temperatures at 423 stations and estimate the maximum annual soil freezing depth at the 387 sites located on seasonally frozen ground. Evaluating seasonal freeze depth at these sites for 1930–2000 reveals a statistically significant trend of −4.5 cm/decade and a net change of −31.9 cm. Interdecadal variability is also evident such that there was no trend until the late 1960s, after which seasonal freeze depths decreased significantly until the early 1990s. From that point forward, likely through at least 2008, no change is evident. These changes in the soil thermal regime are most closely linked with the freezing index, but also mean annual air temperatures and snow depth. Antecedent conditions from the previous warm season do not appear to play a large role in affecting the subsequent cold season’s seasonal freeze depths. The strong decrease in seasonal freeze depths during the 1970s to 1990s was likely the result of strong atmospheric forcing from the North Atlantic Oscillation during that time period.

[1] The exact nature of the interaction between the Pacific Ocean and the climate of the Northern Hemisphere is still in large part uncertain. To investigate these interactions, canonical correlation analysis is applied to relate midlatitude atmospheric circulation variability with Pacific Ocean SST variability. The leading mode corresponds closely to decadal PDO-like variability and the second mode is comparable to ENSO. Consequently, we identified different atmospheric circulation patterns related to the spatially similar, but temporally different modes of SST variability. Circulation variability over Eurasia is linked with the decadal SST variability, while the interannual SST variability is linked to circulation variability over the eastern Pacific. This suggests that decadal SST variability, in part, could be forced by the atmosphere. Furthermore, while the PDO switched back into its negative phase in the late 1990s, the decadal SST variability as related to circulation did not. Instead, the interannual mode has shifted into a negative phase, indicating a change in the nature of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the late 1990s.