305 results on '"Reyer, Christopher"'
Search Results
52. Institutional factors and opportunities for adapting European forest management to climate change
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Bouriaud, Laura, Marzano, Mariella, Lexer, Manfred, Nichiforel, Liviu, Reyer, Christopher, Temperli, Christian, Peltola, Heli, Elkin, Ché, Duduman, Gabriel, Taylor, Philip, Bathgate, Stephen, Borges, Jose G., Clerkx, Sandra, Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi, Gracia, Carlos, Hengeveld, Geerten, Kellomäki, Seppo, Kostov, Georgi, Maroschek, Michael, Muys, Bart, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Nicoll, Bruce, Palahí, Marc, Rammer, Werner, Ray, Duncan, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, Sing, Louise, Tomé, Margarida, Zell, Juergen, and Hanewinkel, Marc
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- 2015
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53. Forest-based climate change mitigation and adaptation in Europe
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Verkerk, Pieter Johannes, primary, Delacote, Philippe, additional, Hurmekoski, Elias, additional, Kunttu, Janni, additional, Matthews, Robert, additional, Mäkipää, Raisa, additional, Mosley, Fredric, additional, Perugini, Lucia, additional, Reyer, Christopher P.O., additional, Roe, Stephanie, additional, and Trømborg, Erik, additional
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- 2022
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54. A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change
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Grünig, Marc, Rammer, Werner, Albrich, Katharina, André, Frédéric, Augustynczik, Andrey L.D., Bohn, Friedrich, Bouwman, Meike, Bugmann, Harald, Collalti, Alessio, Cristal, Irina, Dalmonech, Daniela, De Caceres, Miquel, De Coligny, Francois, Dobor, Laura, Dollinger, Christina, Forrester, David I., Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi, González, José Ramón, Hiltner, Ulrike, Hlásny, Tomáš, Honkaniemi, Juha, Huber, Nica, Jonard, Mathieu, Maria Jönsson, Anna, Lagergren, Fredrik, Nieberg, Mats, Mina, Marco, Mohren, Frits, Moos, Christine, Morin, Xavier, Muys, Bart, Peltoniemi, Mikko, Reyer, Christopher PO, Storms, Ilié, Thom, Dominik, Toïgo, Maude, and Seidl, Rupert
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- 2024
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55. Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a).
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Frieler, Katja, Volkholz, Jan, Lange, Stefan, Schewe, Jacob, Mengel, Matthias, López, María del Rocío Rivas, Otto, Christian, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Malle, Johanna T., Treu, Simon, Menz, Christoph, Blanchard, Julia L., Harrison, Cheryl S., Petrik, Colleen M., Eddy, Tyler D., Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Novaglio, Camilla, Rousseau, Yannick, and Watson, Reg A.
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TROPICAL cyclones ,TERRITORIAL waters ,DATA modeling ,WATER levels ,WATER management ,SEA level ,DOWNSCALING (Climatology) - Abstract
This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human and managed systems to climate change, rising CH
4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
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56. Forest Productivity Under Environmental Change—a Review of Stand-Scale Modeling Studies
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Reyer, Christopher
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- 2015
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57. Trade-offs in strategies for climate-smart forestry in Europe
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Gregor, Konstantin, primary, Knoke, Thomas, additional, Krause, Andreas, additional, Reyer, Christopher, additional, Lindeskog, Mats, additional, Papastefanou, Phillip, additional, Lansø, Anne-Sofie, additional, Smith, Benjamin, additional, and Rammig, Anja, additional
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- 2022
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58. Improving impact model intercomparison by developing and applying quality control and quality assessment tools – the example of the ISIMIP global water sector
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Müller Schmied, Hannes, primary, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Klar, Jochen, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Dobor, Laura, additional, Nyenah, Emmanuel, additional, and Reyer, Christopher, additional
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- 2022
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59. Roadmap to develop a stress test for forest ecosystem services supply
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Kramer, Koen, primary, Bouriaud, Laura, additional, Feindt, Peter H., additional, van Wassenaer, Lan, additional, Glanemann, Nicole, additional, Hanewinkel, Marc, additional, van der Heide, Martijn, additional, Hengeveld, Geerten M., additional, Hoogstra, Marjanke, additional, Ingram, Verina, additional, Levermann, Anders, additional, Lindner, Marcus, additional, Mátyás, Csaba, additional, Mohren, Frits, additional, Muys, Bart, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Palahi, Marc, additional, Polman, Nico, additional, Reyer, Christopher P.O., additional, Schulze, Ernst-Detlef, additional, Seidl, Rupert, additional, de Vries, Wim, additional, Werners, Saskia E., additional, Winkel, Georg, additional, and Yousefpour, Rasoul, additional
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- 2022
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60. Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP
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Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Arnell, Nigel W, Ebi, Kristie L, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Raes, Frank, Rapley, Chris, Smith, Mark Stafford, Cramer, Wolfgang, Frieler, Katja, Reyer, Christopher P. O, Schewe, Jacob, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Warszawski, Lila
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Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
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- 2017
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61. Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5
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Mishra, Abhijeet, primary, Humpenöder, Florian, additional, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, additional, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, additional, Sohngen, Brent, additional, P. O. Reyer, Christopher, additional, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, additional, and Popp, Alexander, additional
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- 2021
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62. Comment on bg-2021-191
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Reyer, Christopher, primary
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- 2021
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63. Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
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Thiery, Wim, primary, Lange, Stefan, additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Andrijevic, Marina, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Emanuel, Kerry, additional, Geiger, Tobias, additional, Bresch, David N., additional, Zhao, Fang, additional, Willner, Sven N., additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Dury, Marie, additional, François, Louis, additional, Grillakis, Manolis, additional, Gosling, Simon N., additional, Hanasaki, Naota, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Lutz, Wolfgang, additional, Mengel, Matthias, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Stacke, Tobias, additional, and Wada, Yoshihide, additional
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- 2021
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64. Saturation of Global Terrestrial Carbon Sink Under a High Warming Scenario
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Shi, Hao, primary, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Pan, Naiqing, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Forrest, Matthew, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Fu, Bojie, additional, Gädeke, Anne, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Pan, Shufen, additional, Stevanović, Miodrag, additional, and Yang, Jia, additional
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- 2021
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65. Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide
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Reyer, Christopher, Lasch-Born, Petra, Suckow, Felicitas, Gutsch, Martin, Murawski, Aline, and Pilz, Tobias
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- 2014
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66. CHELSA-W5E5: Daily 1 km meteorological forcing data for climate impact studies.
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Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Lange, Stefan, Hari, Chantal, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Conrad, Olaf, Zimmermann, Niklaus E., and Frieler, Katja
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DOWNSCALING (Climatology) ,METEOROLOGICAL research ,METEOROLOGICAL stations ,WEATHER forecasting ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
Current changes in the world's climate increasingly impact a wide variety of sectors globally, from agriculture, ecosystems, to water and energy supply or human health. Many impacts of climate on these sectors happen at high spatio-temporal resolutions that are not covered by current global climate datasets. Here we present Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth's land surface areas - WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean data (CHELSA-W5E5, https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809.3, Karger et al., 2022): a climate forcing dataset at daily temporal resolution and 30 arcsec spatial resolution for air-temperatures, precipitation rates, and downwelling shortwave solar radiation. This dataset is a spatially downscaled version of the 0.5° W5E5 dataset using the CHELSA V2 topographic downscaling algorithm. We show that the downscaling generally increases the accuracy of climate data by decreasing the bias, and increasing the correlation with measurements from meteorological stations. Bias reductions are largest in topographically complex terrain. Limitations arise for minimum near surface air temperatures in regions that are prone to cold air pooling, or at the upper extreme end of surface downwelling shortwave radiation. We further show that our topographically downscaled climate data compare well with the results of dynamical downscaling using the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), as time series from both sources are similarly well correlated to station observations. This is remarkable given the lower computational cost of the CHELSA V2 algorithm compared to WRF and similar models. Overall, we conclude that the downscaling can provide higher resolution climate data with in- creased accuracy. Hence, the dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global level but also as for applications that cover more than one region and benefit from using a consistent dataset across these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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67. Scaling issues in forest ecosystem management and how to address them with models
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Seidl, Rupert, Eastaugh, Chris S., Kramer, Koen, Maroschek, Michael, Reyer, Christopher, Socha, Jarosław, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Zlatanov, Tzvetan, and Hasenauer, Hubert
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- 2013
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68. Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany
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Reyer, Christopher, Bachinger, Johann, Bloch, Ralf, Hattermann, Fred F., Ibisch, Pierre L., Kreft, Stefan, Lasch, Petra, Lucht, Wolfgang, Nowicki, Christoph, Spathelf, Peter, Stock, Manfred, and Welp, Martin
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- 2012
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69. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales
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Lange, Stefan, Volkholz, Jan, Geiger, Tobias, Zhao, Fang, Vega, Iliusi, Veldkamp, Ted, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Warszawski, Lila, Huber, Veronika, Schewe, Jacob, Bresch, David N., Chang, Jinfeng, Ciais, Philippe, Dury, Marie, Emanuel, Kerry, Folberth, Christian, Gerten, Dieter, Gosling, Simon N., Grillakis, Manolis, Hanasaki, Naota, Henrot, Alexandra?Jane, Hickler, Thomas, Honda, Yasushi, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Liu, Wenfeng, Nishina, Kazuya, Ostberg, Sebastian, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stacke, Tobias, Steinkamp, J?rg, Thiery, Wim, Wada, Yoshihide, Willner, Sven, Yang, Hong, Yoshikawa, Minoru, Yue, Chao, and Frieler, Katja
- Abstract
©2020. The Authors. The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross-category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.
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- 2020
70. Climate change mitigation via afforestation, reforestation and deforestation avoidance: and what about adaptation to environmental change?
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Reyer, Christopher, Guericke, Martin, and Ibisch, Pierre L.
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- 2009
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71. Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models
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Maréchaux, Isabelle, primary, Langerwisch, Fanny, additional, Huth, Andreas, additional, Bugmann, Harald, additional, Morin, Xavier, additional, Reyer, Christopher P.O., additional, Seidl, Rupert, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Dantas de Paula, Mateus, additional, Fischer, Rico, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, Lexer, Manfred J., additional, Lischke, Heike, additional, Rammig, Anja, additional, Rödig, Edna, additional, Sakschewski, Boris, additional, Taubert, Franziska, additional, Thonicke, Kirsten, additional, Vacchiano, Giorgio, additional, and Bohn, Friedrich J., additional
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- 2021
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72. A framework for analysing cross-border climate change impacts, responses and their propagation
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Carter, Timothy R., primary, Benzie, Magnus, additional, Campiglio, Emanuele, additional, Carlsen, Henrik, additional, Fronzek, Stefan, additional, Hildén, Mikael, additional, Reyer, Christopher, additional, and West, Chris, additional
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- 2021
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73. Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
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Gädeke, Anne, primary, Langer, Moritz, additional, Boike, Julia, additional, Burke, Eleanor J, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Head, Melissa, additional, Reyer, Christopher P O, additional, Schaphoff, Sibyll, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, and Thonicke, Kirsten, additional
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- 2021
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74. Review for "Direct and indirect disturbance impacts in forests"
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Reyer, Christopher, primary
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- 2021
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75. Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests
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Ruiz-Benito, Paloma, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Lines, Emily R, Reyer, Christopher P O, Ratcliffe, Sophia, Morin, Xavier, Hartig, Florian, Mäkelä, Annikki, Yousefpour, Rasoul, Chaves, Jimena E, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, Benito-Garzón, Marta, Morales-Molino, Cesar, Julio Camarero, J, and Jump, Alistair S
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open access ,data accessibility ,harmonisation ,forest responses to climate change ,drivers ,climatic extremes ,data integration - Abstract
Climate change is expected to cause major changes in forest ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. To assess forest impacts from climate change, the existing empirical information must be structured, harmonised and assimilated into a form suitable to develop and test state-of-the-art forest and ecosystem models. The combination of empirical data collected at large spatial and long temporal scales with suitable modelling approaches is key to understand forest dynamics under climate change. To facilitate data and model integration, we identified major climate change impacts observed on European forest functioning and summarised the data available for monitoring and predicting such impacts. Our analysis of c. 120 forest-related databases (including information from remote sensing, vegetation inventories, dendroecology, palaeoecology, eddy-flux sites, common garden experiments and genetic techniques) and 50 databases of environmental drivers highlights a substantial degree of data availability and accessibility. However, some critical variables relevant to predicting European forest responses to climate change are only available at relatively short time frames (up to 10-20 years), including intra-specific trait variability, defoliation patterns, tree mortality and recruitment. Moreover, we identified data gaps or lack of data integration particularly in variables related to local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, dispersal capabilities and physiological responses. Overall, we conclude that forest data availability across Europe is improving, but further efforts are needed to integrate, harmonise and interpret this data (i.e. making data useable for non-experts). Continuation of existing monitoring and networks schemes together with the establishments of new networks to address data gaps is crucial to rigorously predict climate change impacts on European forests.
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- 2020
76. Managing forests in the 21st century: Book of abstracts
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Reyer, Christopher (Ed.), Bilogub, Mariia (Ed.), Mahnken, Mats (Ed.), Gutsch, Martin (Ed.), Krüger, Kirsten (Ed.), Rammig, Anja (Ed.), Reineking, Björn (Ed.), Seidl, Rupert (Ed.), Schelhaas, Mart-Jan (Ed.), Mäkelä, Annikki (Ed.), Verkerk, Hans (Ed.), Reyer, C., Bilogub, M., Mahnken, M., Gutsch, M., Krüger, K., Rammig, A., Reineking, B., Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M., Mäkelä, A., and Verkerk, H.
- Abstract
Forest ecosystems, their products and services play an important role in achieving ambitious climate change mitigation objectives at the same time requiring profound adaptation to climate change. Forest management schemes to support climate action have to be developed within their regional context but also have to be aligned with national or EU-level climate, forest and sustainability policies. The conference on “Managing forests in the 21st century” is the final conference of the FORMASAM, REFORCE and FOREXCLIM research projects. The conference brings together scientific experts on forest management from all over Europe facing very specific management challenges. The aim is to discuss and improve the understanding the role of forests and forest management in the context of climate change. The conference addresses climate change impacts, as well as needs for mitigation and adaptation especially with regard to the following scientific questions: 1. What are the impacts of climate extremes and disturbances? 2. What are the management challenges (and options) for resilient forests? 3. What can we do to increase the contribution of forest management to climate change mitigation?
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- 2020
77. Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C v2.2 at four European forest sites
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Lasch-Born, Petra, primary, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, Kollas, Chris, additional, Badeck, Franz-Werner, additional, Bugmann, Harald K. M., additional, Grote, Rüdiger, additional, Fürstenau, Cornelia, additional, Lindner, Marcus, additional, and Schaber, Jörg, additional
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- 2020
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78. Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints
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Xu, Wenfang, primary, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Guenet, Bertrand, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Reyer, Christopher P. O., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Shi, Hao, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Forrest, Matthew, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Schaphoff, Sibyll, additional, and Hickler, Thomas, additional
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- 2020
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79. The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests
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Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Meesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Babst, Flurin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional
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- 2020
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80. How to upload the revised text?
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Reyer, Christopher, primary
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- 2020
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81. Reply to Chief-Editor
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Reyer, Christopher, primary
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- 2020
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82. Author response
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Reyer, Christopher, primary
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- 2020
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83. Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation
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Pan, Shufen, primary, Yang, Jia, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Shi, Hao, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Francois, Louis, additional, Frieler, Katja, additional, Fu, Bojie, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Ito, Akihiko, additional, Nishina, Kazuya, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Reyer, Christopher P.O., additional, Schaphoff, Sibyll, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, and Zhao, Fang, additional
- Published
- 2020
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84. ProfoundData: Downloading and Exploring Data from the PROFOUND Database
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Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, primary, Reyer, Christopher, additional, Mats, Mahnken, additional, and Hartig, Florian, additional
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- 2020
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85. No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists
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Persson, Johannes, primary, Blennow, Kristina, additional, Gonçalves, Luísa, additional, Borys, Alexander, additional, Dutcă, Ioan, additional, Hynynen, Jari, additional, Janeczko, Emilia, additional, Lyubenova, Mariyana, additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Merganic, Jan, additional, Merganičová, Katarína, additional, Peltoniemi, Mikko, additional, Petr, Michal, additional, Reboredo, Fernando H., additional, Vacchiano, Giorgio, additional, and Reyer, Christopher P.O., additional
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- 2020
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86. Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
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Ito, Akihiko, primary, Reyer, Christopher P O, additional, Gädeke, Anne, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Chang, Jinfeng, additional, Chen, Min, additional, François, Louis, additional, Forrest, Matthew, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Ostberg, Sebastian, additional, Shi, Hao, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, and Tian, Hanqin, additional
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- 2020
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87. Supplementary material to "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests"
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Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Mesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional
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- 2019
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88. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests
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Reyer, Christopher P. O., primary, Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, additional, Dolos, Klara, additional, Hartig, Florian, additional, Hauf, Ylva, additional, Noack, Matthias, additional, Lasch-Born, Petra, additional, Rötzer, Thomas, additional, Pretzsch, Hans, additional, Mesenburg, Henning, additional, Fleck, Stefan, additional, Wagner, Markus, additional, Bolte, Andreas, additional, Sanders, Tanja G. M., additional, Kolari, Pasi, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, Mammarella, Ivan, additional, Pumpanen, Jukka, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, Trotta, Carlo, additional, Matteucci, Giorgio, additional, D'Andrea, Ettore, additional, Foltýnová, Lenka, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Ibrom, Andreas, additional, Pilegaard, Kim, additional, Loustau, Denis, additional, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, additional, Berbigier, Paul, additional, Picart, Delphine, additional, Lafont, Sébastien, additional, Dietze, Michael, additional, Cameron, David, additional, Vieno, Massimo, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, additional, Cicuendez, Victor, additional, Recuero, Laura, additional, Wiese, Klaus, additional, Büchner, Matthias, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Volkholz, Jan, additional, Kim, Hyungjun, additional, Weedon, Graham P., additional, Sheffield, Justin, additional, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, additional, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Horemans, Joanna A., additional, Martel, Simon, additional, Bohn, Friedrich, additional, Steinkamp, Jörg, additional, Chikalanov, Alexander, additional, Mahnken, Mats, additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, and Frieler, Katja, additional
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- 2019
- Full Text
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89. Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change
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Merganičová, Katarína, primary, Merganič, Ján, additional, Lehtonen, Aleksi, additional, Vacchiano, Giorgio, additional, Sever, Maša Zorana Ostrogović, additional, Augustynczik, Andrey L D, additional, Grote, Rüdiger, additional, Kyselová, Ina, additional, Mäkelä, Annikki, additional, Yousefpour, Rasoul, additional, Krejza, Jan, additional, Collalti, Alessio, additional, and Reyer, Christopher P O, additional
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
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90. Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
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Bugmann, Harald, Seidl, Rupert, Hartig, Florian, Bohn, Friedrich, Brůna, Josef, Cailleret, Maxime, François, Louis, Heinke, Jens, Henrot, Alexandra-Jane, Hickler, Thomas, Hülsmann, Lisa, Huth, Andreas, Jacquemin, Ingrid, Kollas, Chris, Lasch-Born, Petra, Lexer, Manfred J., Merganic, Jan, Merganicova, Katarina, Metter, Tobias, Miranda, Brian R., Nadal‐Sala, Daniel, Rammer, Werner, Rammig, Anja, Reineking, Björn, Roedig, Edna, Sabaté, Santi, Steinkamp, Jörg, Suckow, Felicitas, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Wild, Jan, Xu, Chonggang, Reyer, Christopher P.O., ETHZ ZURICH CHE, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), UNIVERSITY OF REGENSBURG DEU, UFZ HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LEIPZIG DEU, Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS), UNIVERSITY OF LIEGE BEL, PIK POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH POTSDAM DEU, BIK SENCKENBERG BIODIVERISTY AND CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER FRANCKFURT DEU, Technical University in Zvolen (TUZVO), LWF BAVARIAN STATE INSTITUTE OF FORESTRY FREISING DEU, USDA WINCONSIN USA, UNIVERSITAT DE BARCELONA ESP, Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO ITA, and LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY NEW MEXICO USA
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forest dynamics ,Earth sciences ,model comparison ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,ddc:550 ,climate change impacts ,Articles ,mortality modeling ,succession ,Article - Abstract
International audience; Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10-40% per century under current climate and 20-170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.
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- 2019
91. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests
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Reyer, Christopher P. O., Silveyra Gonzalez, Ramiro, Dolos, Klara, Hartig, Florian, Hauf, Ylva, Noack, Matthias, Lasch-Born, Petra, Rötzer, Thomas, Pretzsch, Hans, Mesenburg, Henning, Fleck, Stefan, Wagner, Markus, Bolte, Andreas, Sanders, Tanja G. M., Kolari, Pasi, Mäkelä, Annikki, Vesala, Timo, Mammarella, Ivan, Pumpanen, Jukka, Collalti, Alessio, Trotta, Carlo, Matteucci, Giorgio, D'Andrea, Ettore, Foltýnová, Lenka, Krejza, Jan, Ibrom, Andreas, Pilegaard, Kim, Loustau, Denis, Bonnefond, Jean-Marc, Berbigier, Paul, Picart, Delphine, Lafont, Sebastien, Dietze, Michael, Cameron, David, Vieno, Massimo, Tian, Hanqin, Palacios-Orueta, Alicia, Cicuendez, Victor, Recuero, Laura, Wiese, Klaus, Büchner, Matthias, Lange, Stefan, Volkholz, Jan, Kim, Hyungjun, Weedon, Graham P., Sheffield, Justin, Vega del Valle, Iliusi, Suckow, Felicitas, Horemans, Joanna A., Martel, Simon, Bohn, Friedrich, Steinkamp, Jörg, Chikalanov, Alexander, Mahnken, Mats, Gutsch, Martin, and Frieler, Katja
- Abstract
Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand-level, as well as remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction, and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a SQLite relational database or ASCII flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.008). The data policies of the individual, contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R-package (https://github.com/COST-FP1304-PROFOUND/ProfoundData), which provides basic functions to explore, plot, and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.
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- 2019
92. Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change
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Merganičová, Katarína, Merganič, Ján, Lehtonen, Aleksi, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Sever, Maša Zorana Ostrogović, Augustynczik, Andrey L D, Grote, Rüdiger, Kyselová, Ina, Mäkelä, Annikki, Yousefpour, Rasoul, Krejza, Jan, Collalti, Alessio, Reyer, Christopher P O, Department of Forest Sciences, Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences), Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), and Forest Modelling Group
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model calibration ,4112 Forestry ,Climate Change ,natural disturbances ,education ,fixed ratio ,mycorrhiza ,Review ,Forests ,Carbon ,Carbon Cycle ,reproduction ,Earth sciences ,carbon partitioning, fixed ratio, model calibration, mycorrhiza, natural disturbances, natural resources, nonstruc-tural carbohydrates, repair and defence function, reproduction, temporal resolution ,non-structural carbohydrates ,repair and defence function ,ddc:550 ,carbon partitioning ,natural resources ,nonstructural carbohydrates ,temporal resolution ,Ecosystem ,1172 Environmental sciences - Abstract
Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in dynamic vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is implemented in 31 dynamic vegetation models to identify the main gaps compared to our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. We found that a hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in examined models. The analysis revealed that although the number of carbon allocation studies over the last 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood, and some issues in models are frequently oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilisation of non-structural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge to mechanistic description of carbon allocation in models that would integrate the impact of environmental conditions, disturbances, and seasonal variation in carbon allocation, or (iii) to improve more simplistic models by accounting for the impact of crucial factors affecting carbon allocation in particular environment.
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- 2019
93. Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
- Author
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Bugmann, Harald, Seidl, Rupert, Hartig, Florian, Bohn, Friedrich, Brůna, Josef, Cailleret, Maxime, François, Louis, Heinke, Jens, Henrot, Alexandra-Jane, Hickler, Thomas, Hülsmann, Lisa, Huth, Andreas, Jacquemin, Ingrid, Kollas, Chris, Lasch-Born, Petra, Lexer, Manfred J., Merganič, Ján, Merganičová, Katarína, Mette, Tobias, Miranda, Brian R., Nadal-Sala, Daniel, Rammer, Werner, Rammig, Anja, Reineking, Björn, Roedig, Edna, Sabaté, Santi, Steinkamp, Jörg, Suckow, Felicitas, Vacchiano, Giorgio, Wild, Jan, Xu, Chonggang, and Reyer, Christopher P. O.
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ddc - Published
- 2018
94. Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming.
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Hao Shi, Hanqin Tian, Lange, Stefan, Jia Yang, Shufen Pan, Bojie Fu, and Reyer, Christopher P. O.
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VELOCITY ,VEGETATION greenness ,BIODIVERSITY ,NATURE reserves ,CITIES & towns - Abstract
Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO
2 . Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr-1 (no CO2 effects/with CO2 effects; "+" denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr-1 ("-" denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr-1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr-1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr-1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO2 emissions [C. R. Schwalm et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656-19657 (2020)]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2021
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95. 4C Model description
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Lasch-Born, Petra, Suckow, Felicitas, Badeck, Franz-W., Schaber, Jörg, Bugmann, Harald, Fürstenau, Cornelia, Gutsch, Martin, Kollas, Chris, and Reyer, Christopher P. O.
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- 2018
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96. Evaluating changes of biomass in global vegetation models: the role of turnover fluctuations and ENSO events
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Cantú, Anselmo García, Frieler, Katja, Reyer, Christopher, Ciais, Philippe, Chang, Jinfeng, Ito, Akihiko, Nishina, Kazuya, François, Louis, Henrot, Alexandra-Jane, Hickler, Thomas, Steinkamp, Jörg, Rafique, Rashid, Zhao, Fang, Ostberg, Sebastian, SCHAPHOFF, SIBYLL, Tian, Hanqin, Pan, Shufen, Yang, Jia, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Betts, Richard, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Global Centre for Environmental Research (GCER), University of Newcastle (UoN), Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques (UMCCB), Université de Liège, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Auburn University (AU), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,vegetation optical depth ,ENSO ,terrestrial ecosystems ,ISIMIP2a ,interannual variability ,biomass ,global vegetation models ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS - Abstract
This paper evaluates the ability of eight global vegetation models to reproduce recent trends and inter-annual variability of biomass in natural terrestrial ecosystems. For the purpose of this evaluation, the simulated trajectories of biomass are expressed in terms of the relative rate of change in biomass (RRB), defined as the deviation of the actual rate of biomass turnover from its equilibrium counterpart. Cumulative changes in RRB explain long-term changes in biomass pools. RRB simulated by the global vegetation models is compared with its observational equivalent, derived from vegetation optical depth reconstructions of above-ground biomass (AGB) over the period 1993–2010. According to the RRB analysis, the rate of global biomass growth described by the ensemble of simulations substantially exceeds the observation. The observed fluctuations of global RRB are significantly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation events (ENSO), but only some of the simulations reproduce this correlation. However, the ENSO sensitivity of RRB in the tropics is not significant in the observation, while it is in some of the simulations. This mismatch points to an important limitation of the observed AGB reconstruction to capture biomass variations in tropical forests. Important discrepancies in RRB were also identified at the regional scale, in the tropical forests of Amazonia and Central Africa, as well as in the boreal forests of north-western America, western and central Siberia. In each of these regions, the RRBs derived from the simulations were analyzed in connection with underlying differences in net primary productivity and biomass turnover rate ̶as a basis for exploring in how far differences in simulated changes in biomass are attributed to the response of the carbon uptake to CO2 increments, as well as to the model representation of factors affecting the rates of mortality and turnover of foliage and roots. Overall, our findings stress the usefulness of using RRB to evaluate complex vegetation models and highlight the importance of conducting further evaluations of both the actual rate of biomass turnover and its equilibrium counterpart, with special focus on their background values and sources of variation. In turn, this task would require the availability of more accurate multi-year observational data of biomass and net primary productivity for natural ecosystems, as well as detailed and updated information on land-cover classification.
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- 2018
97. Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C at four European forest sites
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Lasch-Born, Petra, primary, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Reyer, Christopher O. P., additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, Kollas, Chris, additional, Badeck, Franz-Werner, additional, Bugmann, Harald K. M., additional, Grote, Rüdiger, additional, Fürstenau, Cornelia, additional, and Schaber, Jörg, additional
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- 2019
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98. Supplementary material to "Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C at four European forest sites"
- Author
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Lasch-Born, Petra, primary, Suckow, Felicitas, additional, Reyer, Christopher O. P., additional, Gutsch, Martin, additional, Kollas, Chris, additional, Badeck, Franz-Werner, additional, Bugmann, Harald K. M., additional, Grote, Rüdiger, additional, Fürstenau, Cornelia, additional, and Schaber, Jörg, additional
- Published
- 2019
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99. Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave
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Schewe, Jacob, Zhao, Fang, Reyer, Christopher, Breuer, Lutz, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, Eddy, Tyler D., Wright Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis M., Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gosling, Simon, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Huber, Veronika, Kim, Hyungjun, Lotze, Heike K., Orth, René, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Tittensor, Derek P., Vautard, Robert, van Vliet, Michelle, Wada, Yoshihide, and ISIMIP2a modeling team
- Abstract
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New Orleans, Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral >super-ensemble> of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts
- Published
- 2017
100. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
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Frieler, Katja, Lange, Stefan, Piontek, Franziska, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Schewe, Jacob, Warszawski, Lila, Zhao, Fang, Chini, Louise, Denvil, Sebastien, Emanuel, Kerry, Geiger, Tobias, Halladay, Kate, Hurtt, George, Mengel, Matthias, Murakami, Daisuke, Ostberg, Sebastian, Popp, Alexander, Riva, Riccardo, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Volkholz, Jan, Burke, Eleanor, Ciais, Philippe, Ebi, Kristie, Eddy, Tyler D., Elliott, Joshua, Galbraith, Eric, Gosling, Simon N., Hattermann, Fred, Hickler, Thomas, Hinkel, Jochen, Hof, Christian, Huber, Veronika, Krysanova, Valentina, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Pierson, Don, Tittensor, Derek P., Vautard, Robert, van Vliet, Michelle, Biber, Matthias F., Betts, Richard A., Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Deryng, Delphine, Frolking, Steve, Jones, Chris D., Lotze, Heike K., Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Sahajpal, Ritvik, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, and Yamagata, Yoshiki
- Abstract
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
- Published
- 2017
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