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51. Time for change: transitions between HIV risk levels and determinants of behavior change in men who have sex with men

Author

Cardiovasculaire Epi Team 7a, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Basten, Maartje G J, van Wees, Daphne A, Matser, Amy, Boyd, Anders, Rozhnova, Ganna, den Daas, Chantal, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E E, Heijne, Janneke C M, Cardiovasculaire Epi Team 7a, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Basten, Maartje G J, van Wees, Daphne A, Matser, Amy, Boyd, Anders, Rozhnova, Ganna, den Daas, Chantal, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E E, and Heijne, Janneke C M

Published
2021

52. Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Viana, João, van Dorp, Christiaan H., Nunes, Ana, Gomes, Manuel C., van Boven, Michiel, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Veldhoen, Marc, Rozhnova, Ganna, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Viana, João, van Dorp, Christiaan H., Nunes, Ana, Gomes, Manuel C., van Boven, Michiel, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Veldhoen, Marc, and Rozhnova, Ganna

Published
2021

54. Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten, MMB, Rozhnova, Ganna, van Dorp, Christiaan H, Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia, Bootsma, Martin C J, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, Bonten, Marc J M, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten, MMB, Rozhnova, Ganna, van Dorp, Christiaan H, Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia, Bootsma, Martin C J, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, Bonten, Marc J M, and Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

Published
2021

55. The rhythm of risk: sexual behaviour, PrEP use and HIV risk perception between 1999 and 2018 among men who have sex with men in Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Basten, Maartje, den Daas, Chantal, Heijne, Janneke C M, Boyd, Anders, Davidovich, Udi, Rozhnova, Ganna, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Matser, Amy, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Basten, Maartje, den Daas, Chantal, Heijne, Janneke C M, Boyd, Anders, Davidovich, Udi, Rozhnova, Ganna, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, and Matser, Amy

Published
2021

56. Modelling the impact of preventive measures on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in secondary schools in the Netherlands

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Rozhnova, Ganna, Westerhof, Ilse, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Bruijning-Verhagen, P., Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Rozhnova, Ganna, Westerhof, Ilse, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, and Bruijning-Verhagen, P.

Published
2021

57. Derde rapport modellering SARS-CoV-2 infecties in het voortgezet onderwijs

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Westerhof, Ilse, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Bruijning-Verhagen, P., Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Westerhof, Ilse, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, and Bruijning-Verhagen, P.

Published
2021

58. Impact van preventieve maatregelen op de overdracht van SARS-CoV-2 in het voortgezet onderwijs - een model-studie

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Rozhnova, Ganna, Westerhof, Ilse, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Bootsma, Martin, Bruijning-Verhagen, P., Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Rozhnova, Ganna, Westerhof, Ilse, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Bootsma, Martin, and Bruijning-Verhagen, P.

Published
2021

59. Tweede rapport modellering SARS-CoV-2 infecties in het voortgezet onderwijs

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Westerhof, Ilse, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Bruijning-Verhagen, P., Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Child Health, Pham, Thi Mui, Westerhof, Ilse, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, and Bruijning-Verhagen, P.

Published
2021

63. Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study

Author

Teslya, Alexandra, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Bootsma, Martin C J, Rozhnova, Ganna, Sub Mathematical Modeling, and Mathematical Modeling

Subjects
Models, Statistical, Time Factors, Community Participation, Epidemics/prevention & control, Masks, Public Policy, Communicable Disease Control/methods, Awareness, Betacoronavirus, Government, Quarantine, Humans, Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology, Pandemics/prevention & control, Health Education, Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology, Hand Disinfection
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread to nearly every country in the world since it first emerged in China in December 2019. Many countries have implemented social distancing as a measure to "flatten the curve" of the ongoing epidemics. Evaluation of the impact of government-imposed social distancing and of other measures to control further spread of COVID-19 is urgent, especially because of the large societal and economic impact of the former. The aim of this study was to compare the individual and combined effectiveness of self-imposed prevention measures and of short-term government-imposed social distancing in mitigating, delaying, or preventing a COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 in a population stratified by disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious with mild or severe disease, diagnosed, and recovered) and disease awareness status (aware and unaware) due to the spread of COVID-19. Self-imposed measures were assumed to be taken by disease-aware individuals and included handwashing, mask-wearing, and social distancing. Government-imposed social distancing reduced the contact rate of individuals irrespective of their disease or awareness status. The model was parameterized using current best estimates of key epidemiological parameters from COVID-19 clinical studies. The model outcomes included the peak number of diagnoses, attack rate, and time until the peak number of diagnoses. For fast awareness spread in the population, self-imposed measures can significantly reduce the attack rate and diminish and postpone the peak number of diagnoses. We estimate that a large epidemic can be prevented if the efficacy of these measures exceeds 50%. For slow awareness spread, self-imposed measures reduce the peak number of diagnoses and attack rate but do not affect the timing of the peak. Early implementation of short-term government-imposed social distancing alone is estimated to delay (by at most 7 months for a 3-month intervention) but not to reduce the peak. The delay can be even longer and the height of the peak can be additionally reduced if this intervention is combined with self-imposed measures that are continued after government-imposed social distancing has been lifted. Our analyses are limited in that they do not account for stochasticity, demographics, heterogeneities in contact patterns or mixing, spatial effects, imperfect isolation of individuals with severe disease, and reinfection with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that information dissemination about COVID-19, which causes individual adoption of handwashing, mask-wearing, and social distancing, can be an effective strategy to mitigate and delay the epidemic. Early initiated short-term government-imposed social distancing can buy time for healthcare systems to prepare for an increasing COVID-19 burden. We stress the importance of disease awareness in controlling the ongoing epidemic and recommend that, in addition to policies on social distancing, governments and public health institutions mobilize people to adopt self-imposed measures with proven efficacy in order to successfully tackle COVID-19.

Published
2020

64. Time is of the essence: impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing for COVID-19

Author

Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, van Boven, Michiel E, van de Wijgert, Janneke, and Bonten, Marc

Abstract

Summary Background With confirmed cases of COVID-19 declining in many countries, lockdown measures are gradually being lifted. However, even if most social distancing measures are continued, other public health measures will be needed to control the epidemic. Contact tracing either via conventional methods or via mobile app technology is central to control strategies during de-escalation of social distancing. It is therefore essential to identify key factors for a contact tracing strategy (CTS) to be successful. Methods We evaluated the impact of timeliness and completeness in various steps of a CTS using a stochastic mathematical model with explicit time delays between time of infection, symptom onset, diagnosis by testing, and isolation. The model also includes tracing of close contacts (e.g. household members) and casual contacts with different delays and coverages. We computed effective reproduction numbers of a CTS (Rcts) for a population with social distancing measures and various scenarios for isolation of index cases and tracing and quarantine of its contacts. Findings In the best-case scenario (testing and tracing delays of 0 days and tracing coverage of 100%) the effective reproduction number will be reduced with 50% from 1.2 (with social distancing only) to 0.6 (Rcts) by contact tracing. A testing delay of 3 days requires tracing delay or coverage to be at most 1 day or at least 80% to keep Rcts below 1, with the Rcts reduction being 15% and 17%, respectively. With a testing delay of 4 days, even the most efficient CTS cannot reach Rcts values below 1. The effect of minimizing tracing delay (e.g., with app-based technology) declines with declining coverage of app use, but app-based tracing remains more effective than conventional contact tracing even with 20% coverage. The proportion of transmissions per index case that can be prevented depending on testing and tracing delay and isolation of index cases ranges from above 80% in the best-case scenario (testing and tracing delays of 0 days) to 40% and 17% with testing delays of 3 and 5 days, respectively. Interpretation Minimizing testing delay is of key importance for the effectiveness of CTS. Optimizing testing and tracing coverage and minimizing tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology further enhances effectiveness of CTS, with a potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions. The process of conventional contact tracing should be reviewed and streamlined, while mobile app technology may offer a tool for gaining speed in the process.

Published
2020
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65. Regular universal screening for SARS-CoV-2 infection may not allow reopening of society after controlling a pandemic wave

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten, Medische Microbiologie, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heesterbeek, Hans, Kluytmans, Jan, Bonten, Marc, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten, Medische Microbiologie, Bootsma, Martin, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heesterbeek, Hans, Kluytmans, Jan, and Bonten, Marc

Published
2020

67. Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study

Author

Sub Mathematical Modeling, Mathematical Modeling, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin C J, van Boven, Michiel, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, Bonten, Marc J M, Sub Mathematical Modeling, Mathematical Modeling, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin C J, van Boven, Michiel, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, and Bonten, Marc J M

Published
2020

68. Voorspellen van het aantal opnames van patiënten met COVID-​19

Author

Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, van der Roest, Bastiaan, Godijk, Noortje Grejanne, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, van der Roest, Bastiaan, Godijk, Noortje Grejanne, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Rozhnova, Ganna, and Bootsma, Martin

Published
2020

69. Forecasting the pandemic: the role of mathematical models

Author

Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Gomes, Manuel Carmo, Nunes, Ana, Nogueira, João, Rebelo, Carlota, Viana, João, Rozhnova, Ganna, Infection & Immunity, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Gomes, Manuel Carmo, Nunes, Ana, Nogueira, João, Rebelo, Carlota, Viana, João, and Rozhnova, Ganna

Published
2020

71. Short- and long-term impact of vaccination against cytomegalovirus: a modeling study

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, CTI Research, Rozhnova, Ganna, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Van Der Klis, Fiona, Van Baarle, Debbie, Korndewal, Marjolein, C. Vossen, Ann, Van Boven, Michiel, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, CTI Research, Rozhnova, Ganna, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Van Der Klis, Fiona, Van Baarle, Debbie, Korndewal, Marjolein, C. Vossen, Ann, and Van Boven, Michiel

Published
2020

72. Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Teslya, Alexandra, Pham, Thi Mui, Godijk, Noortje G., Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Bootsma, Martin C.J., Rozhnova, Ganna, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Teslya, Alexandra, Pham, Thi Mui, Godijk, Noortje G., Kretzschmar, Mirjam E., Bootsma, Martin C.J., and Rozhnova, Ganna

Published
2020

73. Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Epi Infectieziekten, MMB, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin C J, van Boven, Michiel, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, Bonten, Marc J M, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectious Diseases, Epi Infectieziekten Team 1, Epi Infectieziekten, MMB, Kretzschmar, Mirjam E, Rozhnova, Ganna, Bootsma, Martin C J, van Boven, Michiel, van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M, and Bonten, Marc J M

Published
2020

85. Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heijne, Janneke C.M., Basten, Maartje, den Daas, Chantal, Matser, Amy, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heijne, Janneke C.M., Basten, Maartje, den Daas, Chantal, Matser, Amy, and Kretzschmar, Mirjam

Published
2019

86. Antigenic evolution of viruses in host populations

Author

Rouzine, Igor, Rozhnova, Ganna, Institut de Biologie Paris Seine (IBPS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Biologie Computationnelle et Quantitative = Laboratory of Computational and Quantitative Biology (LCQB), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Biologie Paris Seine (IBPS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität zu Köln, Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, and University Medical Center [Utrecht]

Subjects
[SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology, [SDV.IMM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Immunology, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
Abstract

International audience; To escape immune recognition in previously infected hosts, viruses evolve genetically in immunologically important regions. The host's immune system responds by generating new memory cells recognizing the mutated viral strains. Despite recent advances in data collection and analysis, it remains conceptually unclear how epidemiology, immune response, and evolutionary factors interact to produce the observed speed of evolution and the incidence of infection. Here we establish a general and simple relationship between long-term cross-immunity, genetic diversity, speed of evolution, and incidence. We develop an analytic method fusing the standard epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered approach and the modern virus evolution theory. The model includes the factors of strain selection due to immune memory cells, random genetic drift, and clonal interference effects. We predict that the distribution of recovered individuals in memory serotypes creates a moving fitness landscape for the circulating strains which drives antigenic escape. The fitness slope (effective selection coefficient) is proportional to the reproductive number in the absence of immunity R 0 and inversely proportional to the cross-immunity distance a, defined as the genetic distance of a virus strain from a previously infecting strain conferring 50% decrease in infection probability. Analysis predicts that the evolution rate increases linearly with the fitness slope and logarithmically with the genomic mutation rate and the host population size. Fitting our analytic model to data obtained for influenza A H3N2 and H1N1, we predict the annual infection incidence within a previously estimated range, (4-7)%, and the antigenic mutation rate of U b = (5 − 8) � 10 −4 per transmission event per genome. Our prediction of the cross-immunity distance of a = (14 − 15) aminoacid substitutions agrees with independent data for equine influenza.

Published
2018

89. Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis

Author

Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heijne, Janneke, Bezemer, Daniela, van Sighem, Ard, Presanis, Anne, De Angelis, Daniela, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Rozhnova, Ganna, Heijne, Janneke, Bezemer, Daniela, van Sighem, Ard, Presanis, Anne, De Angelis, Daniela, and Kretzschmar, Mirjam

Published
2018

91. Impact of heterogeneity in sexual behavior on effectiveness in reducing HIV transmission with test-and-treat strategy

Author

JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, Rozhnova, Ganna, van der Loeff, Maarten F Schim, Heijne, Janneke C M, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, JC onderzoeksprogramma Infectieziekten, Epi Infectieziekten Team 2, Infection & Immunity, Rozhnova, Ganna, van der Loeff, Maarten F Schim, Heijne, Janneke C M, and Kretzschmar, Mirjam

Published
2016

98. Impact of varying pre-exposure prophylaxis programs on HIV and Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission among MSM in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

Author

Reitsema M, Wallinga J, van Sighem AI, Bezemer D, van der Valk M, van Aar F, Maria Heijne JC, Hoornenborg E, Rozhnova G, van Benthem B, and Xiridou M

Abstract

Background: In 2019, a five-year pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program started in the Netherlands, in which up to 8,500 men who have sex with men (MSM) can obtain PrEP and 3-monthly consultations with HIV/STI testing., Setting: We assessed the impact of the PrEP program on transmission of HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands and examined prospective variations of the program after 2024., Methods: We used an agent-based model to estimate the effect of the PrEP program. For prospective PrEP programs from 2024, we varied the capacity (8,500; 12,000; 16,000 participants) and consultation frequency (3-monthly; 6-monthly; 70% 3-monthly and 30% 6-monthly) for t., Results: At a capacity of 8,500 participants and 3-monthly consultations, the PrEP program could lead to 3,140 (95%CrI 1,780 - 4,780) and 27,930 (95%CrI 14,560 - 46,280) averted HIV and NG infections; requiring 316,050 (95%CrI 314,120 - 317,580) consultations. At a capacity of 16,000 participants the programs with 3-monthly consultations and 6-monthly consultations could lead to comparable numbers of averted HIV (3,940 (95%CrI 2,420 - 5,460), and 3,900 (2,320 - 5,630) respectively) and NG infections (29,970 (95%CrI 15,490 - 50,350), and 29,960 (95%CrI 13,610 - 50,620) respectively), while requiring substantially different numbers of consultations: 589,330 (95%CrI 586,240 - 591,160) and 272,590 (95%CrI 271,770 - 273,290) respectively., Conclusion: Continuation of a PrEP program could lead to a substantial reduction in HIV and NG transmission. More infections could be averted if the number of participants is increased. In turn, the consultations frequency could be reduced without reducing the number of averted infections if capacity is increased., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Published
2024
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99. Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 2 years of the pandemic.

Author

Boldea O, Alipoor A, Pei S, Shaman J, and Rozhnova G

Abstract

During its first 2 years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding how the age-specific epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 has evolved throughout the pandemic is crucial for informing policy decisions. In this article, we aimed to develop an inference-based modeling approach to reconstruct the burden of true infections and hospital admissions in children, adolescents, and adults over the seven waves of four variants (wild-type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1) during the first 2 years of the pandemic, using the Netherlands as the motivating example. We find that reported cases are a considerable underestimate and a generally poor predictor of true infection burden, especially because case reporting differs by age. The contribution of children and adolescents to total infection and hospitalization burden increased with successive variants and was largest during the Omicron BA.1 period. However, the ratio of hospitalizations to infections decreased with each subsequent variant in all age categories. Before the Delta period, almost all infections were primary infections occurring in naive individuals. During the Delta and Omicron BA.1 periods, primary infections were common in children but relatively rare in adults who experienced either reinfections or breakthrough infections. Our approach can be used to understand age-specific epidemiology through successive waves in other countries where random community surveys uncovering true SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are absent but basic surveillance and statistics data are available., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)

Published
2024
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100. [Forecasting the Pandemic: The Role of Mathematical Models].

Author

Gomes MC, Nunes A, Nogueira J, Rebelo C, Viana J, and Rozhnova G

Subjects
Age Factors, COVID-19, Coronavirus Infections mortality, Coronavirus Infections prevention & control, Coronavirus Infections transmission, Humans, Pandemics prevention & control, Pneumonia, Viral mortality, Pneumonia, Viral prevention & control, Pneumonia, Viral transmission, Portugal epidemiology, Reproducibility of Results, SARS-CoV-2, Schools, Betacoronavirus, Coronavirus Infections epidemiology, Forecasting methods, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral epidemiology
Published
2020
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