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A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.

The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems., funding agencies|European Community|217246|Swedish Environmental Protection Agency|08/381|German Federal Ministry of Education and Research|03F0492A|Russian Fund of Basic Researches|08-05-92421|Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education|06/BONUS/2009|Finnish Academy of Sciences||Danish National Science Foundation||Danish National Research Foundation (Dansk Grundforskningsfond)||Estonian Science Foundation|74677581|Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS), Ecosupport

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.