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The 'Goodwin pattern' — an anti-clockwise rotation in real activity × wage share space recurring at intervals that correspond roughly to the duration of business cycles — is an enduring feature of high-frequency dynamics in capitalist economies. It is well known that the centre or focus of this rotation shifts over time. More recently, however, the Goodwin pattern seems to have broken down, the wage share no longer increasing as the real economy improves over the course of short-term booms. In this paper, the apparent breakdown of the Goodwin pattern is associated with the consolidation of an 'incomes policy based on fear' that is part-and-parcel of neoliberalism. As a result of this incomes policy based on fear, the institutional structure of the labour market disciplines labour at any rate of unemployment. This decouples wage-share dynamics from the state of the real economy, with the result that as recently witnessed in the US, the wage share is rendered invariant to improvements in economic performance over the course of short-term cyclical booms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As China's economy and the U.S. economy have shown a definite interaction, there is considerable interest in studying the correlation between the Chinese stock market and the US financial markets. This paper uses an Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC)-GARCH to investigate the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) and the U.S. financial markets, including SP500, NASDAQ, and US dollar indexes. The empirical results show that the time-varying daily and the lag-one correlation between China and the US stock markets have different performances during global events and national events. Compared with the complicated effect of negative events on the correlation of the stock market, SHCI and USD are negatively correlated with higher negative correlation during the global negative events. In addition, we found Chinese investors are more contagious to the news than American investors, indicating that the Chinese government's policy are more indicated to Chinese investors. Finally, some policy suggestions are provided, and are beneficial to risk prevention and control, and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the spillover effects of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) actions on foreign economies. It presents several observations on the market-specific content of international spillovers, with a focus on the importance of country-specific mentions in FOMC communication. It further highlights the effects that changes to U.S. monetary policy has on trade balances, global financial conditions, and central bank communication.

An extension of the dynamic capabilities model is evaluated in a rapidly changing and complex context: the global automotive sector. This industry is undergoing significant change to improve sustainable performance (e.g., alternative power train technologies with less pollution and better energy performance) responding to more stringent regulations and changing locus of innovation (i.e., suppliers investing more in R&D). Using a comparative and validated sample of 104 R&D projects in the U.S. and China, five hypotheses are tested and supported: 1) dynamic capabilities are significantly related to R&D project success, mediated by strategic intent (H1); 2) dynamic capabilities and resources operate independently and significantly in a model to predict sustainable R&D project success (H2); 3) for the U.S. data (a mature economy), there is a significant relationship between technology novelty and dynamic capabilities (H3), but not for the Chinese data, as predicted (H4); and 4) the Chinese economy does not experience the slowdown encountered in the U.S. economy (H5), but Chinese R&D is dominated by incremental improvements of existing products. These results sustain and clarify the differences in the dynamic capabilities model in mature and emerging economies for the global automotive industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I argue that a broad reading of the infrastructure landscape of the contemporary United States opens space to see how slavery affects our current geographies. By focusing on infrastructure—the roads, ports, rail lines, and buildings, among other examples—built by enslaved people, we can locate slavery in contemporary landscapes. By focusing on the built environment, we can also understand the centrality of slavery in making the U.S. nation-state. Perhaps most geographically significant, the modern infrastructure landscape built through enslaved labor generates existing wealth for individuals and corporations. If, for instance, the infrastructure built through slavery is still generating income, are there ways to capture that income and redistribute it to individuals or communities through reparative justice frameworks? This approach to addressing inequities within the U.S. economy can serve as a form of reparations and might help address fundamental economic inequities within the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After decades of disuse, antitrust is back. Renewing the United States' longstanding distrust of concentrated economic power, antimonopoly scholars have documented widespread harms of corporate "bigness" and inspired policy initiatives to de-concentrate the U.S. economy. To date, however, the new antitrust movement has largely overlooked a key cause of commercial concentration: the rapid consolidation of the U.S. banking sector. More than thirty thousand banks served local communities a century ago, but today just six financial conglomerates control half of the U.S. banking system. Bank consolidation, in turn, has spurred conglomeration throughout the economy. As the Supreme Court recognized in 1963, "[C]oncentration in banking accelerates concentration generally.". This Article contends that scholars and policymakers have neglected bank antitrust law for the past forty years and thereby encouraged excessive consolidation in the banking sector and the broader economy. It argues that policymakers' current approach to bank antitrust--premised on a narrow conception of consumer welfare--has failed in two critical respects. First, it has failed on its own terms, as bank mergers have increased the cost and reduced the availability of basic financial services. Second, because of its limited focus on consumer prices, the prevailing standard has ignored numerous nonprice harms stemming from bank consolidation, including diminished product quality, heightened entry barriers, and greater macroeconomic instability. To correct these shortcomings, this Article proposes a roadmap for reviving bank antitrust. It recommends strengthening the analytical tools used to identify anticompetitive bank mergers and rejecting a narrow focus on consumer prices in favor of a more comprehensive analysis of the costs that bank consolidation imposes on society. Reviving bank antitrust in this way is critical to enhancing competition in the financial sector and throughout the U.S. economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does exposure to economic inequality undermine belief in the American dream? Scholarship has long argued that the availability of meritocratic ideologies like the American dream inoculates people against exposure to inequality by leading them to rationalize unequal outcomes by viewing wealth as due to hard work and poverty as due to indolence. The existence of inequality where the "have-nots" are working poor, however, could serve to undermine such a process because their employment status casts them as "deserving poor" and limits the applicability of agency-based explanations for poverty. Across two experiments embedded in national surveys, exposure to inequality alone did not cause significant reductions in belief in the American dream; however, exposure to inequality where the have-nots were working poor significantly reduced belief in the American dream. Moderation and mediation analyses indicate these effects were most pronounced among lower-income Americans and indirectly heightened support for government reduction of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay reviews the efforts of modern historians to explain the rise and development of capitalism in the early United States. Often assumed to be synonymous with democracy and freedom, capitalism as a system of social and economic organization has presented historians with an interpretive dilemma—suggested by the allusion to "the genie and the troll." The rich historiography from the 20th and early 21st centuries is surveyed here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major principal federal economic indicators produced by the BLS is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Interesting findings indicate that income (after-tax and wage/salary), quarterly total expenditures, food expenditures, and housing expenditures are the most important variables. The data set used in the 2017 I Data Challenge i was provided by the I U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) i . 10.1007/s00180-021-01076-5 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (2018) "Consumer Expenditures and Income.". [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates the changing nature of quality employment in the United States, considering the social and economic consequences of neoliberal policies on the quality and availability of good jobs. Neoliberalism and its policies have profoundly influenced the American economy and impaired the socioeconomic landscape. Access to quality employment is a critical component of the future of work, as it shapes worker identities and empowers them to meet household needs. Quality employment can curb rising inequality, reduce job polarization, close urban-rural divides, and halt the corrosion of trust in American social democracy. This paper proposes a new conceptual and analytical approach to evaluating trends and structural changes in quality employment across American industries. The analytical framework involves a composite indicator — the Quality Employment Index (QEI) — that measures industries' capacity to offer quality employment relative to one another. We use the QEI to rank fifteen American manufacturing industries from 2001 to 2018, and evaluate them in the context of the U.S. political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed-frequency Vector AutoRegressions (MF-VAR) model the dynamics between variables recorded at different frequencies. However, as the number of series and high-frequency observations per low-frequency period grow, MF-VARs suffer from the "curse of dimensionality." We curb this curse through a regularizer that permits hierarchical sparsity patterns by prioritizing the inclusion of coefficients according to the recency of the information they contain. Additionally, we investigate the presence of nowcasting relations by sparsely estimating the MF-VAR error covariance matrix. We study predictive Granger causality relations in a MF-VAR for the U.S. economy and construct a coincident indicator of GDP growth. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early 2022, with consumer price inflation already high, a spike in the price of gasoline increased public concerns that the U.S. economy could be in for a repeat of the inflationary spiral that gripped the nation in the 1970s and 1980s. During this period, energy price increases created an environment where rising inflation and rising inflation expectations reinforced one another until a deep economic contraction broke the feedback loop. Nida Çakır Melek, Francis M. Dillon, and A. Lee Smith assess the risk of a similar spiral in the current environment by exploring whether high inflation makes consumers' inflation expectations more responsive to salient price increases--namely, higher gasoline prices. They find that in response to an increase in the national price of gasoline, individuals with higher initial inflation expectations revise up their one-year-ahead inflation forecasts by almost twice as much as those with lower initial inflation expectations. With inflation currently high and consumers' inflation expectations elevated, their results suggest that changes in salient prices could indeed have an amplified effect on inflation expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Recession of 2007–2009 had profound effects on all sectors of the U.S. economy. In this article we assess the relationship between the academic job market in U.S. geography and the business cycle. Specifically, we examine the responsiveness of the job market to the business cycle since the early 1970s, the impacts of the Great Recession on hiring, and how hiring networks changed with the recession. For our analyses we draw on data from American Association of Geographers (AAG) publications, principally the AAG Newsletter (Jobs in Geography) and the Guide to Geography Programs in the Americas. We find that (1) the academic job market in geography is tightly linked to the business cycle and highly vulnerable to recessions, (2) the 2007–2009 recession destabilized demand and supply in the market with impacts on hiring lasting at least ten years, and (3) hiring networks among PhD-granting programs contracted, had lower connectivity, and witnessed a reshuffling of the top-hiring schools postrecession. Overall, the Great Recession dampened the likelihood of securing a tenure-track position in U.S. geography more so than any recession over the past fifty years. The arrival of COVID-19 and the accompanying contraction of gross domestic product are likely to further adversely affect faculty hiring. Key Words: economic recession, employment, higher education, university jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this article is to assess the dynamics of the innovation divide between China and the Triad, as well as to determine the factors that influence its evolution. The Triad consists of three economies traditionally dominating the world economy: the United States, the European Union, and Japan. The methodology involves the decomposition of the innovativeness of the economy into innovation capability, innovation position, and the relationship between them, which indicates the efficiency of the innovation system. The analysis of dynamic indexes and σ-convergence in all these components confirms that the global economy has been gradually losing clear polarization into innovation leaders, found among developed countries and innovation followers, which have traditionally been associated with developing nations. In addition to demonstrating fast improvement in the Summary Innovation Index of China towards the Triad, the paper has a clear contribution by showcasing China's improvement through the decomposed factors of the innovativeness of the economy. In comparison with the Triad, China has a proportionally higher innovation position and efficiency of the innovation system and a lower level of innovation capacity. This demonstrates its dependence on external sources of innovation and international technology transfer, e.g. through foreign direct investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the analyses of disparities frequently focus on income as a social determinant of health.

• Structural change increases the skill premium if the sector absorbing more labor is skill-intensive and decreases the skill premium otherwise. • Capital deepening and sectoral productivity growth may change the skill premium by driving structural change. • Variations in the skill premium along the process of structural change depend on sectoral differences in factor-augmenting technologies, capital-labor substitutability and factor intensity. • Within-sector labor-augmenting technological change significantly influences the skill premium through the mechanism of structural change in the U.S. economy. Unlike existing studies that highlight the role of directed technological change in causing variations in the skill premium, we argue that capital deepening and sectoral productivity growth—even when neither skill-biased nor unskilled-biased—may change the skill premium by driving structural change. Using a standard model of structural change with sectoral differences in factor-augmenting technologies, capital-labor substitutability and factor intensity, we show that a larger fraction of skilled labor may be reallocated to the less capital-intensive sector or the less flexible sector as the capital-labor ratio increases. The process may increase the skill premium if the sector absorbing more labor is skill-intensive and deceases the skill premium otherwise. Capital-augmenting or labor-augmenting technological change within a sector may also cause such changes, even when it is not skill-biased or unskilled-biased. We apply the model to the U.S. economy over the period 1977-2005. While the effects of capital deepening and within-sector capital-augmenting technological change are limited, within-sector labor-augmenting technological change significantly influences the skill premium through the mechanism of structural change. We find that without labor-augmenting technological change in the goods-producing sector, the skill premium decreases by about one quarter because the share of the services sector that is more skill-intensive than the goods-producing sector falls by more than half. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the identification of the structural characteristics of the input-output accounts (IOA) behind the persistent simple behavior of relative production prices and capital intensities as an effect of changes in income distribution. These characteristics of the IOA are statistical in nature and refer to the strong proportionality between (i) the labor-coefficients vector and the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector of the input-coefficients matrix and (ii) the columns of this input matrix. Both statistical characteristics not only reduce the sources of nonlinearity in the price and capital intensity functions of the profit rate but also produce the statistical tendency of industry's capital intensities to cluster around central values with a limited variability irrespectively of the profit rate. The empirical results are based on the U.S. economy for the period 1977-2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant public health and economic challenges worldwide. Various health and non-pharmaceutical policies have been adopted by different countries to control the spread of the virus. To shed light on the impact of vaccination and social mobilization policies during this wide-ranging crisis, this paper applies a system dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of these two types of policies on pandemic containment and the economy in the United States. Based on the simulation of different policy scenarios, the findings are expected to help decisions and mitigation efforts throughout this pandemic and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency policies can help to reduce energy use and mitigate the effects of climate change. This paper examines the U.S. and Chinese economies by applying HEM to both. Key sectors absorbing more energy from other sectors by purchasing intermediate products from them and, simultaneously, transferring more energy by selling products to the rest of the sectors are identified. This provides insights for decision-making on appropriate energy efficiency policies. It appears that the U.S. economy should focus on the service sector, and the Chinese should focus on the industrial sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computing career opportunities are increasing across all sectors of the U.S. economy, yet there remains a serious shortage of college graduates to fill these jobs. This problem has fueled a nationwide effort to expand and diversify the computing career pipeline. Guided by social cognitive career theory (SCCT), this study used logistic regression to examine college students' interest in a computing career and how that changes over time. Drawing from a multi-institutional, longitudinal sample of introductory computing course students, this study extends prior literature by examining a broad group of potential computing career aspirants (i.e., computing and non-computing majors). Results indicate that, two years after the introductory course, 53.5% of students indicated an interest in a computing career. Notably, this interest changed significantly over time, and our findings indicate that students in this sample were more likely to leave the computing career pipeline than to be recruited to it. Positive predictors of computing career interest include initial computing career interest, family support, and time spent in computing-related student groups. Additional positive predictors such as sense of belonging in computing and computing self-efficacy underscore the importance of psychosocial attributes in shaping this career interest. Beyond individual characteristics, this study reveals key areas where faculty and institutions can better address elements of the college experience to bolster students' interest and confidence in pursuing computing careers. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among natural disasters, hurricanes pose significant threat to port infrastructure in the United States, especially to those along the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The operational continuity of ports is critical because of the growing reliance of domestic and international businesses on ports and their significance in the growth of national and regional economies. While direct physical damages to ports are not rare, a shutdown of port operations is more likely declared by authorities as a precautionary and preparatory measure during hurricanes. Considering the enormous economic importance of ports and their vulnerability to hurricanes, the current study proposes a framework and methodology to analyze the economic risks of such hurricane-related shutdowns using hurricane- and port-related determinants. The risks of shutdowns are modeled using regression analysis based on historical port shutdown data and are combined with extensions of the well-known input–output model to predict the operational and economic risks of ports to hurricanes. The application of the methodology is demonstrated by conducting a case study based on the Texas Port System to evaluate the economic risks of hurricane-related port disruptions on the U.S. economy. • Presents a methodology to estimate economic risks of hurricane-related port shutdowns. • The duration of hurricane-related port shutdowns is predicted using regression models. • Economic impacts of port disruptions are predicted using input-output model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rational investors look into maximizing returns with minimal risk. Since this is highly unlikely, optimizing risk and return is a practical solution. Bitcoin is a new financial product that can be included in an investment portfolio. This paper looks at Bitcoins as a separate asset class and attempts to capture the volatility using the Exponential GARCH (E‐GARCH) as well as to check if Bitcoins can be used as an optimal tool to hedge using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH against four traditional asset classes in the U.S. economy which includes the stock market (S&P 500 index), Bonds (U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), Gold and Crude Oil. The period of study is a little over 7 years. The results suggest that Bitcoin stands as a highly speculative class of asset with extremely high volatility and with respect to hedging, Bitcoin stands as a possible tool of hedge with the U.S. Aggregate Bond index and to a certain extent against Gold but fails to be an optimal hedge against the S&P 500 and Crude Oil in the U.S. economy between April 29, 2013 and October 31, 2019 due to its highly volatile nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expediency of forming the specialized database about industry and the system of their automated collection and usage were justified in this paper. This system allows to provide the information needs of the analysts and the scientists about the problems of industrial development. It provides the automated collection of the information for many countries of the world using any number of sources available as client-server resources on the Internet. The usage of modern data integration algorithms provides a diverse presentation of information, formats for its provision and frequency of updates. In addition, the advanced users of the system are provided with a wide range of options for creating search criteria and data acquisition format. The system is built as a client-server technology and is available for seamless integration with similar systems as a source and storage of information. In order to build a system, the analysis of existing in the world and popular in use statistical databases was carried out, their features, advantages and disadvantages were deafined. It has been established that most of the existing statistical systems do not provide statistical data for Ukraine, and where they are, there is no detail data by type of economic activity and industry, and especially in industry. In addition, there are certain technical difficulties in working with data for users, the personalization of access is almost non-existent. The possibilities of the integrating existing databases with the systems that use information for modeling and forecasting both in query mode and especially in real time are rather limited. The structure of the statistical database about the development of industry has been formed, the indicators have been selected for its filling. The indicators were distributed by the sectors of the economy (the raw material production sector, the processing sector, the macrostatistics, other sectors). The sectors were disclosed by the key types of economic activity in accordance with the classification of economic activities in 2010 (CEA-2010), providing the predominant part of the creation of the added value of the economy of Ukraine. Each specific type of economic activity is disclosed by groups of industries and industries. In addition, the formation of the statistical database was carried out on the basis of assigning to each of the indicators other characteristics necessary for the automation: code, units of measurement, period, base (distribution of the indicators into the separate groups for the possibility of modeling), source (the statistical bases and sources from which the indicators and the data were collected). The modern relational database was used to store information, which allows solving optimization issues for working with the most powerful, but not yet large data, taking into account the features of wide data, allows horizontal and vertical scaling, including in the PostgreSQL open source database system. The methodology for the formation and the technology for filling the statistical database automatically from a large number of sources, the access mode to which is set by the system configuration parameters has been created. The technology has been developed for data migrations available in flexible formats, including text, in particular Excel. The implementation of the developed automated information system integration of industrial statistics allows you to select the necessary indicators for the analysis of economic processes in industry, use the statistical data collected in a single information space for 130 countries of the world (including Ukraine) for conducting scientific researches, building economic and mathematical models and making managerial decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses that the war in Ukraine has been fought with the conventional and economic weapon of diverse mechanisms of economic and financial coercion. The language of economic coercion and submission highlights the connection between sanctions and other forms of economic pressure that are central to the operation of the world economy, from debt conditionality to the silent compulsion of economic relations.

In November 1774, as many as 500 of Virginia's merchants gathered at a meeting of merchants and signed the Continental Association, agreeing to its ban on imports from Britain, on exports to Britain, and on the consumption of British goods. By appealing to merchants' wallets, not just their hearts, Virginia Patriots induced even conservative merchants to comply.38 Delayed nonexport was understood as accommodating merchants. Yet, the predominant merchant response to the Association was driven not by planter-merchant or Patriot-Tory conflict, but by merchants' tolerance of risk. If Norton, perhaps the most well-connected merchant trading to Virginia from Britain, was to be denied a cargo (and, therefore, the ability to collect debts), no merchant could expect to be spared. [Extracted from the article]

This paper makes the case for why we believe that the Russia-Ukraine crisis signals the end of a global era defined by globalisation. Even though Russia's economy is only a fraction of the US, EU or China, its role in the world is much more relevant and the events in Ukraine are triggering a cascade of effects that will redefine the political, social and economic thinking and interactions among nations long into the future. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the "peace dividend" of recent decades is gone as military budgets are increasing significantly around the world. Energy and raw material dependency on other countries is considered a strategic weakness. The war has disrupted global supply chains and nations are now shunning the exposure to other countries, especially ones that do not share similar values. The macroeconomic environment has changed as growth prospects are depressed and inflation is on the rise. The world is moving to a period of reorganisation and instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their ambitious article, Joshua Alley and Matthew Fuhrmann ask how "alliance commitments affect US military spending." This does not mean alliances are ineffective instruments of deterrence; it shows that the substantive relationship between alliance commitments and spending remains strong even after accounting for any cost savings that alliances generate by deterring military disputes - at least in this sample.[79] We must be circumspect in interpreting this evidence. Reviewing the (Budgetary) Costs of US Alliances Applying a host of statistical analyses to data on US alliance commitments and US military expenditures from 1947 to 2019, Alley and Fuhrmann find that one new alliance commitment adds between $11 billion and $21 billion annually to the defense budget. [Extracted from the article]