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This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

The 13th International Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Measurements from Space (IWGGMS) will be held on 6-8 June, 2017, at the University of Helsinki in Helsinki, Finland. The workshop is organised by the Finnish Meteorological Institute with support from the University of Helsinki. The workshop gathers together more than 160 scientists from the EU, USA, Japan, China, Australia, Canada, and Russia. This report is the official abstract book of the workshop. Background. Success in space-based global measurement of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, is critical for advancing the understanding of carbon cycle. The recent developments in observations and in interpreting the data are very promising. Space-based greenhouse gas measurement, however, poses a wide array of challenges, many of which are complex and thus demand close international cooperation. The goal of the workshop is to review the state of the art in remote sensing of CO 2 , CH 4 , and other greenhouse gases from space including the current satellite missions, missions to be launched in the near future, emission hot spots on regional and global scales, process studies and interactions of carbon cycle and climate, pre-flight and on-orbit instrument calibration techniques, retrieval algorithms and uncertainty quantification, validation methods and instrumentation, related ground-based, shipboard, and airborne measurements, and flux inversion from space based measurements. The workshop is part of the programme for the centenary of Finland's independence in 2017. The workshop is also one of the activities arranged by the Finnish Meteorological Institute to support Finland's chairmanship of the Arctic Council, 2017 - 2019. The workshop is sponsored by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the University of Helsinki, the European Space Agency, the City of Helsinki, the Federation of Finnish Learned Societies, and ABB Inc.

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3d Chemistry Transport model (3dCTM), the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modeling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20%. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models’ gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa) being likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. On the other hand, upper mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too slow descent and hence too low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367

International audience; European Space Agency’s GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) instrument on-board Envisat satellite operated during 2002 - 2012. During the ten years of the mission, GOMOS instrument successfully measured vertical profiles of O3, NO2, NO3 and aerosols, including polar mesospheric clouds and polar stratospheric clouds, using UV-VIS channel and O2 and H2O using two near--IR channels. The best quality of data was obtained during the night time, but recently also the data processing of the day time observations have been improved. The two photometers of GOMOS have been used to retrieve high vertical resolution temperature profiles as well as for studying turbulence and gravity waves. Constituents with weak spectral signatures, such as OClO and Na, can be detected using temporal averaging. GOMOS measurements provide global coverage with about 200-400 daily profile measurements. Vertically the measurements extend from 5 km to 100 km with varying valid altitude range depending on constituent. Stellar occultation technique ensures high vertical resolution of 2-4 km, very accurate altitude registration and relatively simple data retrieval. The self-calibrating feature of the occultation technique is particularly suitable for long term trend analysis and therefore useful for studying climate-chemistry interactions. In particular, the high quality night time observations of ozone, NO2 and NO3 have been used in several time series analysis and studies related to middle atmosphere chemistry and dynamics including effects of the energetic particles. The joint SAGE II and GOMOS ozone profile time series have shown upper stratospheric ozone recovery at most latitudes outside the polar regions.In this presentation we discuss the highlights of GOMOS measurements and introduce the recent improvements on the data quality, including, in particular, day time measurements and ozone profiles in the very interesting upper troposphere - lower stratosphere region.

This study focuses on meteor smoke particle (MSP) induced effects on the D region ion chemistry. Hereby, MSPs, represented with an 11 bin size distribution, have been included as an active component into the Sodankyä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model. By doing that, we model the diurnal variation of the negatively and positively charged MSPs as well as ions and the electron density under quiet ionospheric conditions. Two distinct points in time are studied in more detail, i.e., one for sunlit conditions (Solar zenith angle is 72∘) and one for dark conditions (Solar zenith angle is 103∘). We find nightly decrease of free electrons and negative ions, the positive ion density is enhanced at altitudes above 80 km and reduced below. During sunlit conditions the electron density is enhanced between 60 and 70 km altitude, while there is a reduction in negative and positive ions densities.

Observations have shown that mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) is affected by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) at magnetic latitudes connected to the outer radiation belt. It is not clear, however, if the current satellite-based electron flux observations can be used to accurately describe EEP in atmospheric models. We use the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry (SIC) model to reproduce the changes in OH and ozone observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS/Aura) during four strong EEP events. The daily mean electron energy-flux spectrum, needed for ionization rate calculations, is determined by combining the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector fluxes and spectral form from the instrument for the detection of particles high-energy electron detector on board the DEMETER satellite. We show that in general SIC is able to reproduce the observed day-to-day variability of OH and ozone. In the lower mesosphere, the model tends to underestimate the OH concentration, possibly because of uncertainties in the electron spectra for energies >300 keV. The model predicts OH increases at 60–80 km, reaching several hundred percent at 70–80 km during peak EEP forcing. Increases in OH are followed by ozone depletion, up to several tens of percent. The magnitude of modeled changes is similar to those observed by MLS and comparable to effects of individual solar proton events. Our results suggest that the combined satellite observations of electrons can be used to model the EEP effects above 70 km during geomagnetic storms, without a need for significant adjustments. However, for EEP energies >300 keV impacting altitudes

Energetic particle precipitation leads to enhancement of odd hydrogen (HOx) below 80 km altitude through water cluster ion chemistry. Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS/Aura) and Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED/POES) between 2004–2009, we study variations of nighttime OH caused by radiation belt electrons at geomagnetic latitudes 55–65°. For those months with daily mean 100–300 keV electron count rate exceeding 150 counts/s in the outer radiation belt, we find a strong correlation (r ≥ 0.6) between OH mixing ratios at 70–78 km (0.046–0.015 hPa) and precipitating electrons. Correlations r ≥ 0.35, corresponding to random chance probability p ≤ 5%, are observed down to52 km (0.681 hPa), while no clear correlation is observed at altitudes below. This suggests that the fluxes of ≥3 MeV electrons were not high enough to cause observable changes in OH mixing ratios. At 75 km, in about 34% of the 65 months analyzed we find a correlation r ≥ 0.35. Although similar results are obtained for both hemispheres in general, in some cases the differences in atmospheric conditions make the OH response more difficult to detect in the South. Considering the latitude extent of electron forcing, we find clear effects on OH at magnetic latitudes 55–72°, while the lower latitudes are influenced much less. Because the time period 2004–2009 analyzed here coincided with an extended solar minimum, and the year 2009 was anomalously quiet, it is reasonable to assume that our results provide a lower-limit estimation of the importance of energetic electron precipitation at the latitudes considered.

Using ground-based subionospheric radio wave propagation data from two very low frequency (VLF) receiver sites, riometer absorption data, and THEMIS satellite observations, we examine in detail energetic electron precipitation (EEP) characteristics associated with two substorm precipitation events that occurred on 28 May 2010. In an advance on the analysis undertaken by Clilverd et al. (2008), we use phase observations of VLF radio wave signals to describe substorm-driven EEP characteristics more accurately than before. Using a >30 keV electron precipitation flux of 5.6 X 107 el. cm-2 sr-1 s-1 and a spectral gradient consistent with that observed by THEMIS, it was possible to accurately reproduce the peak observed riometer absorption at Macquarie Island (L = 5.4) and the associated NWC radio wave phase change observed at Casey, Antarctica, during the second, larger substorm. The flux levels were near to 80% of the peak fluxes observed in a similar substorm as studied by Clilverd et al. (2008). During the initial stages of the second substorm, a latitude region of 5 < L < 9 was affected by electron precipitation. Both substorms showed expansion of the precipitation region to 4 < L < 12 more than 30 min after the injection. While both substorms occurred at similar local times, with electron precipitation injections into approximately the same geographical region, the second expanded in an eastward longitude more slowly, suggesting the involvement of lower-energy electron precipitation. Each substorm region expanded westward at a rate slower than that exhibited eastward. This study shows that it is possible to successfully combine these multi-instrument observations to investigate the characteristics of substorms.

In order to make best use of the opportunities provided by space missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, we determine the response of complementary subionospheric radiowave propagation measurements (VLF), riometer absorption measurements (CNA), and GPS-produced total electron content (vTEC) to different energetic electron precipitation (EEP). We model the relative sensitivity and responses of these instruments to idealised monoenergetic beams of precipitating electrons, and more realistic EEP spectra chosen to represent radiation belts and substorm precipitation. In the monoenergetic beam case, we find riometers are more sensitive to the same EEP event occurring during the day than during the night, while subionospheric VLF shows the opposite relationship, and the change in vTEC is independent. In general, the subionospheric VLF measurements are much more sensitive than the other two techniques for EEP over 200 keV, responding to flux magnitudes two-three orders of magnitude smaller than detectable by a riometer. Detectable TEC changes only occur for extreme monoenergetic fluxes. For the radiation belt EEP case, clearly detectable subionospheric VLF responses are produced by daytime fluxes that are ~10 times lower than required for riometers, while nighttime fluxes can be 10,000 times lower. Riometers are likely to respond only to radiation belt fluxes during the largest EEP events and vTEC is unlikely to be significantly disturbed by radiation belt EEP. For the substorm EEP case both the riometer absorption and the subionospheric VLF technique respond significantly, as does the change in vTEC, which is likely to be detectable at ~3-4 TECu.

In the polar atmosphere, significant chemical and ionization changes occur during solar proton events (SPE). The access of solar protons to this region is limited by the dynamically changing geomagnetic field. In this study we have used riometer absorption observations to investigate the accuracy of a model to predict Kp-dependent geomagnetic rigidity cutoffs, and hence the changing proton fluxes. The imaging riometer at Halley, Antarctica is ideally situated for such a study, as the rigidity cutoff sweeps back and forth across the instrument's field of view, providing a severe test of the rigidity cutoff model. Using observations from this riometer during five solar proton events, we have confirmed the basic accuracy of this rigidity model. However, we find that the model can be improved by setting a lower Kp limit (i.e., Kp=5 instead of 6) at which the rigidity modeling saturates. We also find that for L>4.5 the apparent L-shell of the beam moves equatorwards. In addition, the Sodankyla Ion and Neutral Chemistry model is used to determine an empirical relationship between integral proton precipitation fluxes and nighttime ionosphere riometer absorption, in order to allow consideration of winter time SPEs. We find that during the nighttime the proton flux energy threshold is lowered to include protons with energies of >5 MeV in comparison with >10 MeV for the daytime empirical relationships. In addition, we provide an indication of the southern and northern geographic regions inside which SPEs play a role in modifying the neutral chemistry of the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Among the most striking natural phenomena affecting ozone are solar proton events (SPE), during which high-energy protons precipitate into the middle atmosphere in the polar regions. Ionisation caused by the protons results in changes in the lower ionosphere, and in production of neutral odd nitrogen and odd hydrogen species which then destroy ozone in well-known catalytic chemical reaction chains. Large SPEs are able to decrease the ozone concentration of upper stratosphere and mesosphere, but are not expected to significantly affect the ozone layer at 15--30~km altitude. In this work we have used the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) in studies of the short-term effects caused by SPEs. The model results were found to be in a good agreement with ionospheric observations from incoherent scatter radars, riometers, and VLF radio receivers as well as with measurements from the GOMOS/Envisat satellite instrument. For the first time, GOMOS was able to observe the SPE effects on odd nitrogen and ozone in the winter polar region. Ozone observations from GOMOS were validated against those from MIPAS/Envisat instrument, and a good agreement was found throughout the middle atmosphere. For the case of the SPE of October/November 2003, long-term ozone depletion was observed in the upper stratosphere. The depletion was further enhanced by the descent of odd nitrogen from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex, until the recovery occurred in late December. During the event, substantial diurnal variation of ozone depletion was seen in the mesosphere, caused mainly by the the strong diurnal cycle of the odd hydrogen species. In the lower ionosphere, SPEs increase the electron density which is very low in normal conditions. Therefore, SPEs make radar observations easier. In the case of the SPE of October, 1989, we studied the sunset transition of negative charge from electrons to ions, a long-standing problem. The observed phenomenon, which is controlled by the amount of solar radiation, was successfully explained by considering twilight changes in both the rate of photodetachment of negative ions and concentrations of minor neutral species. Changes in the magnetic field of the Earth control the extent of SPE-affected area. For the SPE of November 2001, the results indicated that for low and middle levels of geomagnetic disturbance the estimated cosmic radio noise absorption levels based on a magnetic field model are in a good agreement with ionospheric observations. For high levels of disturbance, the model overestimates the stretching of the geomagnetic field and the geographical extent of SPE-affected area. This work shows the importance of ionosphere-atmosphere interaction for SPE studies. By using both ionospheric and atmospheric observations, we have been able to cover for the most part the whole chain of SPE-triggered processes, from proton-induced ionisation to depletion of ozone. Avaruusmyrskyjen aikana Auringon korkeaenergiset protonit tunkeutuvat Maan ilmakehään napa-alueilla ja ionisoivat ilmakehän kaasuja. Myrskyn seurauksena ionosfäärissä tapahtuu muutoksia, jotka käynnistävät otsonia tuhoavia kemiallisia reaktioita. Ylästratosfäärissä sekä mesosfäärissä protonimyrskyt aiheuttavat huomattavia muutoksia otsonin määrään, mikä saattaa vaikuttaa mm. ilmakehän säteilytasapainoon ja yleiseen kiertoliikkeeseen. Myrskyjen aiheuttamat muutokset sekä myrskyn jälkeinen palautuminen normaalitilaan ovat tärkeä tutkimuskohde, kun halutaan ymmärtää paremmin keski-ilmakehän fysikaalisia ja kemiallisia prosesseja sekä Auringon vaikutusta niihin. Suurtenkaan protonimyrskyjen ei ole havaittu vaikuttavan merkittävästi otsonikerrokseen 15 30 kilometrin korkeudella, joten UV-säteilyn voimakkuus maan pinnan tasolla ei myrskyn seurauksena merkittävästi kasva. Väitöstyössä tutkittiin Sodankylän ioni- ja neutraalikemiamallilla protonimyrskyjen aiheuttamia otsonimuutoksia. Käytetyn tietokonemallin sekä satelliittihavaintojen yhdistelmä on ainutlaatuinen protonimyrskytutkimuksessa. Hyödyntämällä mallia sekä ionosfääri- että ilmakehämittauksia voitiin tutkia koko myrskyjen laukaisemaa prosessiketjua aina otsonin vähenemiseen saakka. Mallin tulosten todettiin vastaavan hyvin eri tavoin tehtyjä mittauksia sekä Envisat-satelliitin GOMOS-mittalaitteen avulla tehtyjä havaintoja. GOMOSin avulla voitiin ensimmäistä kertaa havaita protonimyrskyn aiheuttamat otsonimuutokset pohjoisella napa-alueella talviaikaan. Loka-marraskuussa 2003 tapahtuneiden avaruusmyrskyjen jälkeen havaittiin pitkäaikainen otsonin väheneminen ylä-stratosfäärissä. Vaikutus oli suurin marraskuun puolivälissä, noin kuukausi protonimyrskyn päättymisen jälkeen, koska epätavallisen pysyvä polaaripyörre esti ilman sekoittumisen. Myrskyn aikana mesosfäärin otsonin vähenemisessä todettiin myös selkeää vuorokausivaihtelua siten, että suurin suhteellinen muutos tapahtui auringonlaskun ja -nousun aikaan. Otsonin määrän palautui ennalleen joulukuun lopulla polaaripyörteen hajottua.