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Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic, known as the warming hole, is receiving much attention because of its relationship with the climate sensitivity in the Earth System Models (ESMs). However, the impact of its future projection on the global climate remains unclear due to large uncertainties. Here, we show that the future warming hole changes will affect the interhemispheric asymmetry of temperature and precipitation by modulating the Northern Hemisphere (NH) warming. Models with a weaker warming hole in the future project stronger NH warming by injecting more non‐radiative fluxes to the atmosphere. This leads to an asymmetric warming contrast between the two hemispheres, resulting in a meridional shift of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone and more precipitation increases in the NH. Our study implies that the future warming hole controls the interhemispheric heat exchanges and associated changes in the global temperature and precipitation, suggesting that its improved simulation is essential. Plain Language Summary: The simulation of future warming hole intensity remains a major uncertainty in the Earth system models (ESMs) and its climatic impact is unclear. Here, using the ESMs, we show that future changes in the warming hole cause the interhemispheric asymmetry of temperature and precipitation. The warming of the warming hole injects non‐radiative fluxes into the atmosphere, amplifying more warming in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. Concurrently, this creates an energy imbalance between two hemispheres that leads to a northward shift of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone, resulting in the interhemispheric asymmetry of precipitation. Key Points: Future warming hole changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 models affect the interhemispheric asymmetry of temperatureGreater warming in the warming hole increases the non‐radiative fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to an increase in the interhemispheric asymmetryThe warming hole affects future global precipitation by modulating the location of the ITCZ [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) is not only vital for local livelihoods, but also influences atmospheric circulation in tropical and extra‐tropical regions. The warm (cold) phase of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation usually leads to dry (wet) condition around the MC in boreal winter. This study unravels that extreme precipitation occurs in Borneo during both El Niño and La Niña winters. Extreme precipitation in Borneo is associated with tripole and dipole anomalous vertical motion pattern, respectively, over the MC‐tropical Pacific in El Niño and La Niña years. A parallel analysis reveals that weak precipitation in Borneo in El Niño and La Niña years occurs with dipole and tripole anomalous vertical motion pattern, respectively, over the MC‐tropical Pacific. The amplitude of the equatorial central‐eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies may be a factor in the change of anomalous vertical motion pattern over the MC‐tropical Pacific. Further analysis identifies a tendency of extreme precipitation in late December to early−mid January and weak precipitation in February in Borneo. This suggests a critical role of seasonal change in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST in the occurrence of extreme precipitation in Borneo. Plain Language Summary: Extreme precipitation in the Maritime Continent (MC) is crucial for local communities and weather and climate beyond. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation is a mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with its warm phase (El Niño) leading to dry condition in the MC during boreal winter. This study reveals that extreme precipitation occurs in Borneo during both El Niño and La Niña winters with distinct anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over the MC‐tropical Pacific. There is a tendency for extreme precipitation in Borneo to occur from late December to early−mid January and for weak precipitation in February. This study illustrates the modulation of El Niño and La Niña on Borneo's winter extreme precipitation and the role of seasonal sea surface temperature change in the equatorial eastern Pacific in shaping precipitation in Borneo. Key Points: Extreme precipitation occurs in Borneo during both El Niño and La Niña wintersExtreme precipitation is associated with distinct anomalous vertical circulation over tropical Pacific during El Niño and La Niña wintersSeasonal sea surface temperature change in the eastern equatorial Pacific has a crucial role in extreme precipitation in Borneo [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO2-induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO2 removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved determination of ENSO predictability, teleconnections, and impacts requires a better understanding of event-to-event differences in ENSO spatial patterns and evolution.

Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west dipole structure along the equator. ELT is usually defined by the first EOF mode of subsurface temperature, of which the spatial structure is similar to ENSO. Generally, this mode is insignificantly correlated with the decadal modulation of ENSO. EIT closely interacts with the residuals induced by ENSO asymmetries, both of which show similar spatial structures. On the other hand, ELT is controlled by slowly varying ocean adjustments analogous to a recharge oscillator of ENSO. Both types of TPDV have similar spectral peaks on a decadal-to-interdecadal time scale. Interestingly, the variances of both types of TPDV depend on the strength of connection between El Niño–La Niña residuals and EIT, such that the strong two-way feedback between them enhances EIT and reduces ELT. The strength of the two-way feedback is also related to ENSO variability. The flavors of El Niño–La Niña with respect to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state tend to be well simulated when ENSO variability is larger in CGCMs. As a result, stronger ENSO variability leads to intensified interactive feedback between ENSO residuals and enhanced EIT in CGCMs.