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Many passerine bird populations, particularly those that have open-cup nests, are in decline in agricultural landscapes. Current theory suggests that an increase in habitat generalist predators in response to landscape change is partially responsible for these declines. However, empirical tests have failed to reach a consensus on how and through what mechanisms landscape change affects nest predation. We tested one hypothesis, the Additive Predation Model, with an artificial nest experiment in fragmented landscapes in southern Queensland, Australia. We employed structural equation modelling of the influence of the relative density of woodland and habitat generalist predators and landscape features at the nest, site, patch and landscape scales on the probability of nest predation. We found little support for the Additive Predation Model, with no significant influence of the density of woodland predators on the probability of nest predation, although landscape features at different spatial scales were important. Within woodlands fragmented by agriculture in eastern Australia, the presence of noisy miner colonies appears to influence ecological processes important for nest predation such that the Additive Predation Model does not hold. In the absence of colonies of the aggressive native bird, the noisy miner, the influence of woodland predators on the risk of artificial nest predation was low compared with that of habitat generalist predators. Outside noisy miner colonies, we found significant edge effects with greater predation rates for artificial nests within woodland patches located closer to the agricultural matrix. Furthermore, the density of habitat generalist predators increased with the extent of irrigated land-use, suggesting that in the absence of noisy miner colonies, nest predation increases with land-use intensity at the landscape scale.

Management of damaging invasive plants is often undertaken by multiple decision makers, each managing only a small part of the invader's population. As weeds can move between properties and re‐infest eradicated sites from unmanaged sources, the dynamics of multiple decision makers plays a significant role in weed prevalence and invasion risk at the landscape scale. We used a spatially explicit agent‐based simulation to determine how individual agent behavior, in concert with weed population ecology, determined weed prevalence. We compared two invasive grass species that differ in ecology, control methods, and costs: Nassella trichotoma (serrated tussock) and Eragrostis curvula (African love grass). The way decision makers reacted to the benefit of management had a large effect on the extent of a weed. If benefits of weed control outweighed the costs, and either net benefit was very large or all agents were very sensitive to net benefits, then agents tended to act synchronously, reducing the pool of infested agents available to spread the weed. As N. trichotoma was more damaging than E. curvula and had more effective control methods, agents chose to manage it more often, which resulted in lower prevalence of N. trichotoma. A relatively low number of agents who were intrinsically less motivated to control weeds led to increased prevalence of both species. This was particularly apparent when long‐distance dispersal meant each infested agent increased the invasion risk for a large portion of the landscape. In this case, a small proportion of land mangers reluctant to control, regardless of costs and benefits, could lead to the whole landscape being infested, even when local control stopped new infestations. Social pressure was important, but only if it was independent of weed prevalence, suggesting that early access to information, and incentives to act on that information, may be crucial in stopping a weed from infesting large areas. The response of our model to both behavioral and ecological parameters was highly nonlinear. This implies that the outcomes of weed management programs that deal with multiple land mangers could be highly variable in both space and through time.

In plants where reproduction is fatal, seed-feeding insects may have a major impact on the evolutionarily stable reproductive strategy by altering fecundity schedules in a size-dependent manner. We explored this in Carduus nutans, a facultative biennial native to Europe, using two years of data from the South of France. An integral projection model based on detailed statistical models of the demography of Carduus nutans and characteristics of herbivore attack showed that seed predators select for smaller flowering size. An elasticity analysis showed that changes in the slope relating seed herbivore attack rates to plant total receptacle area had a large effect on lifetime reproductive success relative to most other plant demographic rates. Together, these two results indicate that in the absence of seed predators, as is the case in the exotic range of this invasive species, flowering size could evolve to be larger. Further analysis also showed that subsequent introduction of different species of seed-feeders as biocontrol agents could lead to different evolutionary outcomes dependent on the ecological characteristics of the seed-feeders, allowing the direction and magnitude of evolutionary change in flowering size to be predicted based on what seed predators have been introduced where and when. Such data would allow us to distinguish between the effect of seed predators and other hypotheses for size increase in the invasive habitat. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Pan et al . claim that our results actually support a strong linear positive relationship between productivity and richness, whereas Fridley et al . contend that the data support a strong humped relationship. These responses illustrate how preoccupation with bivariate patterns distracts from a deeper understanding of the multivariate mechanisms that control these important ecosystem properties.

Understanding the impact of herbivory on plant populations is a fundamental goal of ecology. Damage to individual plants can be visually striking and affect the fates of individuals, but these impacts do not necessarily translate into population‐level differences in vital rates (survival, growth, or fecundity) or population growth rates. In biological control of weeds, quantitative assessments of population‐level impacts of released agents on both target invasive plants and native, nontarget plants are needed to inform evaluations of the benefits and risks of releasing agents into new regions. Here we present a 3‐yr experimental demographic field study using the European root‐feeding biocontrol weevil, Mogulones crucifer, first released in Canada in 1997 to control the invasive weed Cynoglossum officinale (Boraginaceae). Mogulones crucifer is an effective “search and destroy” agent in Canada, but sporadically feeds, oviposits, and develops on native nontarget Boraginaceae. We investigated the population‐level impacts of this biocontrol insect on its target weed and a native nontarget plant, Hackelia micrantha (Boraginaceae), by releasing large numbers of weevils into naturally occurring patches of H. micrantha growing isolated from or interspersed with C. officinale. We followed the fates of individual plants on release and nonrelease (control) sites for two transition years, developed matrix models to project population growth rates (λ) for each plant species, and examined the contributions from differences in vital rates to changes in λ using life table response experiments (LTRE). In contrast to studies of the insect–plant interaction in its native range, as a biocontrol agent, M. crucifer increased mortality of C. officinale rosettes in the year immediately following release, depressing the weed's λ to below the population replacement level. However, λ for H. micrantha was never depressed below the replacement level, and any differences between release and nonrelease sites in the nontarget could not be explained by significant contributions from vital rates in the LTRE. This study is the first to simultaneously and experimentally examine target and nontarget population‐level impacts of a weed biocontrol insect in the field, and supports the theoretical prediction that plant life history characteristics and uneven herbivore host preferences can interact to produce differences in population‐level impacts between target and nontarget plant species.

1. The open-access scientific philosophy has been widely adopted and proven to promote considerable progress in the fields of ecology and evolution. Open-access global databases now exist on animal migration, the distribution of species, and conservation status, to mention a few. However, a gap exists for databases on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment. Furthermore, an animal population schedules of reproduction and mortality determine its invasive potential, and its risk of local extinction, which are at the core of conservation biology. 2. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics in terms of reproduction, mortality, and development over the entire life cycle. The results of MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. 3. Thousand of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database version 1.0.0, an open-source online repository containing data on 402 species worldwide, from 272 studies, with a total of 1,575 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. 4. Synthesis: We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. The open access nature of this database, together with its ancillary information will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other traits, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and its integration with other online resources, we encourage animal ecologists to tackle global ecological and evolutionary questions with unprecedented statistical power.

Biological invasions are inherently demographic processes, but trait differences between native and introduced genotypes are rarely linked to population growth rates. Native European Centaurea stoebe occurs as two cytotypes with different life histories (monocarpic diploids, polycarpic tetraploids); however, only tetraploids have been found in its introduced range in North America. In a common garden experiment using artificial populations, we compared the demographic performance of the three geo-cytotypes in the presence and absence of a specialist herbivore using periodic matrix models. We found no difference in population growth rate between the two European cytotypes and no significant effects of herbivory in all geo-cytotypes. However, there was a pronounced increase in population growth rate for North American compared with European tetraploids due to increased seed production and juvenile establishment. These results suggest that genetic drift or rapid evolution, rather than pre-adaptation through polyploidy may explain the invasion success of tetraploids.

Increased or fluctuating resources may facilitate opportunities for invasive exotic plants to dominate. This hypothesis does not, however, explain how invasive species succeed in regions characterized by low resource conditions or how these species persist in the lulls between high resource periods. We compare the growth of three co-occurring C4 perennial bunchgrasses under low resource conditions: an exotic grass, Eragrostis curvula (African lovegrass) and two native grasses, Themeda triandra and Eragrostis sororia. We grew each species over 12 weeks under low nutrients and three low water regimes differentiated by timing: continuous, pulsed, and mixed treatments (switched from continuous to pulsed and back to continuous). Over time, we measured germination rates, time to germination (first and second generations), height, root biomass, vegetative biomass, and reproductive biomass. Contrary to our expectations that the pulsed watering regime would favor the invader, water-supply treatments had little significant effect on plant growth. We did find inherent advantages in a suite of early colonization traits that likely favor African lovegrass over the natives including faster germination speed, earlier flowering times, faster growth rates and from 2 weeks onward it was taller. African lovegrass also showed similar growth allocation strategies to the native grasses in terms of biomass levels belowground, but produced more vegetative biomass than kangaroo grass. Overall our results suggest that even under low resource conditions invasive plant species like African lovegrass can grow similarly to native grasses, and for some key colonization traits, like germination rate, perform better than natives.

Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.

Invasive plants cause substantial economic and environmental damage throughout the world. However, eradication of most invasive species is impossible and, in some cases, undesirable. An alternative is to slow the spread of an invasive species, which can delay impacts or reduce their extent. We identify three main areas where models are used extensively in the study of plant spread and its management: (i) identifying the key drivers of spread to better target management, (ii) determining the role spatial structure of landscapes plays in plant invasions, and (iii) integrating management structures and limitations to guide the implementation of control measures. We show how these three components have been approached in the ecological literature as well as their potential for improving management practices. Particularly, we argue that scientists can help managers of invasive species by providing information about plant invasion on which managers can base their decisions (i and ii) and by modeling the decision process through optimization and agent-based models (iii). Finally, we show how these approaches can be articulated for integrative studies.

Invasive plant species are human-introduced, nonnative, and damaging. They can restructure natural habitats, change community composition, disrupt food webs, and degrade ecosystem services. Global climatic changes are often thought to exacerbate invasions (1), but no consensus exists over the generality of this phenomenon (2). As a consequence, anticipating areas of high invasion risk or decreased impact in the future is still uncertain. By combining experimental biogeography with demographic models, Merow et al. (3) develop climate driven process-based models to predict population growth or decline under current and future climate scenarios for two established and damaging invasive plant species in New England, United States. They find that one invasive species will likely perform better, whereas the other will do worse in areas that are currently occupied. Forecasting the distribution and performance of invasive species under a changing climate comes with particular challenges. Invasive species have not had time to colonize all favorable habitats available in the nonnative range. This nonequilibrium situation is problematic for correlative species distribution models, which may then use incomplete occurrences in the nonnative range as inputs for predicting suitable climatic conditions. However, predictions can be improved by using occurrence data from the native range (4). A more concerning challenge is that invasives may be able to establish in environmental conditions the species has not encountered in the native range (4⇓⇓–7), even if those conditions occur but are unoccupied in the native range (6). Niche … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: buckleyy{at}tcd.ie. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Worldwide, we rely on introduced plants for the essentials of human life; however, intentional plant introductions for commercial benefit have resulted in invaders with negative environmental, economic or social impacts. We argue that plant species of low expected economic value should be less acceptable for introduction than species of high economic value if their other traits are similar; however, key traits such as likelihood of escape and costs of escape are often highly uncertain. Methods do not currently exist which allow decision makers to evaluate costs and benefits of introduction under uncertainty. We developed a cost-benefit analysis for determining plant introduction that incorporates probability of escape, expected economic costs after escape, expected commercial benefits, and the efficiency and cost of containment. We used a model to obtain optimal decisions for the introduction and containment of commercial plants while maximizing net benefit or avoiding losses. We also obtained conditions for robust decisions which take into account severe uncertainty in model parameters using information-gap decision theory. Optimal decisions for introduction and containment of commercial plants depended, not only on the probability of escape and subsequent costs incurred, but also on the anticipated commercial benefit, and the cost and efficiency of containment. When our objective is to maximize net benefit, increasing uncertainty in parameter values increased the likelihood of introduction; in contrast, if our objective is to avoid losses, more uncertainty decreased the likelihood of introduction.

Understanding the mechanisms behind the successful colonization and establishment of introduced species is important for both preventing the invasion of unwanted species and improving release programs for biological control agents. However, it is often not possible to determine important introduction details, such as date, number of organisms, and introduction location when examining factors affecting invasion success. Here we use biological control introduction data to assess the role of propagule pressure, disturbance, and residence time on invasion success of four herbivorous insect species introduced for the control of the invasive wetland plant, Lythrum salicaria, in the Columbia River Estuary. Two sets of field surveys determined persistence at prior release sites, colonization of new sites, and abundance within colonized sites. We quantified propagule pressure in four ways to examine the effect of different measurements. These included three measurements of introduction size (proximity to introduction site, introduction size at a local scale, and introduction size at a regional scale) and one measure of introduction number (number of introduction events in a region). Disturbance was examined along a tidal inundation gradient (distance from river mouth) and as habitat (island or mainland). Statistical models and model averaging were used to determine which factors were driving invasion success. In this study we found: (1) sparse evidence for the positive influence of propagule pressure on invasion success; (2) disturbance can negatively affect the invasion success of herbivorous insects; (3) the effects of disturbance and propagule pressure are species specific and vary among invasion stages, and (4) not all measures of propagule pressure show the same results, therefore single measures and proxies should be used cautiously.

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites – grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

Invasive plants disrupt ecosystems from local to landscape scales. Reduction or reversal of spread is an important goal of many invasive plant management strategies, but few general guidelines exist on how to achieve this aim. We identified the main drivers of spread, and thus potential targets for management, using a spatially explicit simulation model tested on different life history categories in different spread and landscape scenarios. We used boosted regression trees to determine the parameters that most affected spread. Additionally, we analysed how spread reacted to changes in those parameters over a broad realistic range. From our results we deduce four simple management guidelines: (1) Manage dispersal if possible, as mean dispersal distance was an important driver of spread for all life history categories; (2) short bursts of rapid spread or more usual year on year spread can have different drivers, therefore managers need to decide what type of spread they want to slow; (3) efforts to manage spread will have variable outcomes due to interactions between, and non-linear responses to, key drivers of spread; and (4) the most useful demographic rates to target depend on dispersal ability, life history and how spread is measured. Fecundity was found to be important for driving spread only when reduced to low levels and particularly when the species was short lived. For longer lived species management should target survival, or age of maturity, especially when dispersal ability is limited.

The potential for the pre-zygotic plant growth environment to play a role in determining seed longevity was investigated for a species that inhabits arid to semi-arid Australia. Seed longevity is particularly important for wild populations in fluctuating environments because the longer a seed-lot is able to survive in the soil seed bank the more likely it is to buffer the population from unpredictable environments. Thus Wahlenbergia tumidifructa plants received wet or dry soil moisture within a warm or cool glasshouse until flowering. Seeds subsequently produced by flowers that opened on the day that plants were moved to a common environment were collected at maturity and longevity assessed by controlled ageing at 60% relative humidity and 45 degrees C. Mean seed longevity was similar for seeds produced by plants that grew in warm-wet, warm-dry and cool-dry conditions (P(50) of about 20 days), but extended for plants in cool-wet conditions (P(50) = 41.7 days). Cool temperatures resulted in seeds with a wider distribution of lifespans (sigma = 20 days) than warm conditions (sigma = 12 days); the large sigma caused the extended P(50) for cool-wet plants, but not cool-dry as a result of a concomitant reduction in initial seed germination (K(i)). After moving to the common environment, all plants generated new vegetative material, which went on to produce seeds with similar longevity (P(50) approx. 20 days) irrespective of original environment. Visible phenotypic responses of the parent to environmental conditions correlated with longevity and quality parameters of the progeny seeds, suggesting that a parental effect modified seed longevity. Our study provides novel empirical data showing that environmental conditions expected under climate change scenarios may potentially cause seed longevity to decline for a species that inhabits arid to semi-arid Australia. These negative impacts on population buffering may weaken the storage effect mechanism of species coexistence in fluctuating environments.

Explaining variation in population growth rates is fundamental to predicting population dynamics and population responses to environmental change. In this study, we used matrix population models, which link birth, growth and survival to population growth rate, to examine how and why population growth rates vary within and among 50 terrestrial plant species. Population growth rates were more similar within species than among species; with phylogeny having a minimal influence on among-species variation. Most population growth rates decreased over the observation period and were negatively autocorrelated between years; that is, higher than average population growth rates tended to be followed by lower than average population growth rates. Population growth rates varied more through time than space; this temporal variation was due mostly to variation in post-seedling survival and for a subset of species was partly explained by response to environmental factors, such as fire and herbivory. Stochastic population growth rates departed from mean matrix population growth rate for temporally autocorrelated environments. Our findings indicate that demographic data and models of closely related plant species cannot necessarily be used to make recommendations for conservation or control, and that post-seedling survival and the sequence of environmental conditions are critical for determining plant population growth rate.

Questions: The following hypotheses of neighbourhood effects on drought-induced mortality are evaluated: (A) drought-induced stem death is randomly distributed in space, (B) stems are predisposed to drought-induced death through negative density-dependent effects and (C) stems are predisposed to drought-induced death due to local deficits in plant available resources. Location: Central Queensland, Australia. Methods: Recent mass mortality of woody stems was surveyed and mapped in three 1.21-ha quadrats within Eucalyptus melanophloia-dominated savanna. A multi-faceted analytical approach was adopted including spatial pattern analyses, two logistic regressions of neighbourhood density effects on survival and spatial autocorrelation analyses of model residuals. Results: Mortality was concentrated in stems ≤15-cm diameter at breast height (DBH). Survival was aggregated or random in quadrats 1 and 3 and random o regular in quadrat 2. Small neighbour density had a negative effect on survival in all quadrats. In addition, the second model identified a positive relationship between survival and living neighbour density in quadrat 3 (indicating a resource patch effect), but a negative relationship in quadrat 2 (density effect). Analysis of model residuals showed that neighbour density explained mortality equally well across quadrat 2, but not across quadrats 1 and 3. Conclusions: There was evidence in support of hypotheses B (neighbour density) and C (resource heterogeneity). We found strong support for an interaction between microsite quality and neighbourhood stem densities, and suggest that this interaction is driven by plant available water.

P>1. Restoration thinning involves the selective removal of stems in woody ecosystems to restore historical or ecologically desirable ecosystem structure and processes. Thinning may also accelerate carbon sequestration in dense regenerating forests. This study considers restoration thinning effects on both structural development and carbon sequestration in a regenerating forest ecosystem.

1. Multiple modelling techniques are currently used to describe population dynamics of established invasions, where intraspecific competition is likely to reduce survival, growth and/or fecundity, suppressing population growth rate. To date, it remains unanswered whether these modelling techniques produce similar management recommendations for density-dependent weed populations and how to model density dependence to better inform management. 2. We constructed demographic models for a short-lived weed based on data on multiple manipulated densities in a glasshouse and data from the literature using three germination strategies. We compared management recommendations produced by two main modelling techniques for density-dependent weed populations and examined whether periodic matrix population models constructed from different densities without characterization of density-dependent processes (implicit models) produce management recommendations similar to that of the same models with density dependence explicitly characterized and simulated (explicit models). The use of a periodic matrix population model enabled us to target simulated management on either vital rates or entire life stages, and to examine the role of a weed's germination strategy on model outcomes.

Summary 1. A seed-feeding biocontrol agent Bruchidius villosus was released in New Zealand (NZ) to control the invasive European shrub, broom Cytisus scoparius, in 1988 but it was subsequently considered unable to destroy sufficient seed to suppress broom populations. We hypothesized that an invasive mite Varroa destructor, which has caused honeybee decline in NZ, may cause pollinator limitation, so that the additional impact of B. villosus might now reach thresholds for population suppression. 2. We performed manipulative pollination treatments and broad-scale surveys of pollination, seed rain and seed destruction by B. villosus to investigate how pollinator limitation and biocontrol interact throughout the NZ range of broom. 3. The effect of reduced pollination in combination with seed-destruction was explored using a population model parameterized for NZ populations. 4. Broom seed rain ranged from 59 to 21 416 seeds m )2 from 2004 to 2008, and was closely correlated with visitation frequency of honeybees and bumblebees. Infestation of broom seeds by B. villosus is expected to eventually reach 73% (the average rate observed at the localities adjacent to early release sites). 5. The model demonstrated that 73% seed destruction, combined with an absence of honeybee pollination, could cause broom extinction at many sites and, where broom persists, reduce the intensity of treatment required to control broom by conventional means. 6. Nevertheless, seed rain was predicted to be sufficient to maintain broom invasions over many sites in NZ, even in the presence of the varroa mite and B. villosus, largely due to the continued presence of commercial beehives that are treated for varroa mite infestation. 7. Synthesis and applications. Reduced pollination through absence of honeybees can reduce broom seed set to levels at which biocontrol can be more effective. To capitalize on the impact of the varroa mite on feral honeybees, improved management of commercial beehives (for example, withdrawal of licences for beekeepers to locate hives on Department of Conservation land) could be used as part of a successful integrated broom management programme at many sites in NZ.

Identifying species boundaries within morphologically indistinguishable cryptic species complexes is often contentious. For the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Aleyrodoidea: Aleyrodidae), the lack of a clear understanding about the genetic limits of the numerous genetic groups and biotypes so far identified has resulted in a lack of consistency in the application of the terms, the approaches used to apply them and in our understanding of what genetic structure within B. tabaci means. Our response has been to use mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase one to consider how to clearly and consistently define genetic separation. Using Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and analysis of sequence pairwise divergence we found a considerably higher number of genetic groups than had been previously determined with two breaks in the distribution, one at 11% and another at 3.5%. At >11% divergence, 11 distinct groups were resolved, whereas at >3.5% divergence 24 groups were identified. Consensus sequences for each of these groups were determined and were shown to be useful in the correct assignment of sequences of unknown origin. The 3.5% divergence bound is consistent with species level separations in other insect taxa and suggests that B. tabaci is a cryptic species composed of at least 24 distinct species. We further show that the placement of Bemesia atriplex (Froggatt) within the B. tabaci in group adds further weight to the argument for species level separation within B. tabaci. This new analysis, which constructs consensus sequences and uses these as a standard against which unknown sequences can be compared, provides for the first time a consistent means of identifying the genetic bounds of each species with a high degree of certainty.

Summary 1. A primary goal of evolutionary ecology is to understand factors selecting for the diversity of life histories. Life-history components, such as time-to-reproduction, adult survivorship and fecundity, might differ among species because of variation in direct and indirect benefits of these life histories in different environments or might have lower-than-expected variability because of phylogenetic constraints. Here, we present a phylogenetic examination of demography and life histories using a data base of 204 terrestrial plant species. 2. Overall, statistical models without phylogeny were preferred to models with phylogeny for vital rates and elasticities, suggesting that they lacked phylogenetic signal and are evolutionarily labile. However, the effect of phylogeny was significant in models including sensitivities, suggesting that sensitivities exhibit greater phylogenetic signal than vital rates or elasticities. 3. Species with a greater age at first reproduction had lower fecundity, consistent with a cost of delayed reproduction, but only in some habitats (e.g. grassland). We found no evidence for an indirect benefit of delayed reproduction via a decrease in variation in fecundity with age to first reproduction. 4. The greater sensitivity and lower variation in survival than in fecundity was consistent with buffering of more important vital rates, as others have also found. This suggests that studies of life-history evolution should include survival, rather than only fecundity, for the majority of species. 5. Synthesis. Demographic matrix models can provide informative tests of life-history theory because of their shared construction and outputs and their widespread use among plant ecologists. Our comparative analysis suggested that there is a cost of delayed reproduction and that more important vital rates exhibit lower variability. The absolute importance of vital rates to population growth rates (sensitivities) exhibited phylogenetic signal, suggesting that a thorough understanding of life-history evolution might require an understanding of the importance of vital rates, not just their means, and the role of phylogenetic history.

Invasive plant species can form dense populations across large tracts of land. Based on these observations of dominance, invaders are often described as competitively superior, despite little direct evidence of competitive interactions with natives. The few studies that have measured competitive interactions have tended to compare an invader to natives that are unlikely to be strong competitors because they are functionally different. In this study, we measured competitive interactions among an invasive grass and two Australian native grasses that are functionally similar and widely distributed. We conducted a pair-wise glasshouse experiment, where we manipulated both biotic factors (timing of establishment, neighbour identity and density) and abiotic factors (nutrients and timing of water supply). We found that the invader significantly suppressed the performance of the natives; but its suppression ability was contingent on resource levels, with pulsed water/low nutrients or continuous watering reducing its competitive effects. The native grasses were able to suppress the performance of the invader when given a 3-week head-start, suggesting the invader may be incapable of establishing unless it emerges first, including in its own understorey. These findings provide insight for restoration, as the competitive effect of a functionally similar invader may be reduced by altering abiotic and biotic conditions in favour of natives.

Climate has an important influence on the distribution and abundance of invasive species. Habitat suitability for invasive plants could shift with a changing climate and management practices may need to shift in response. Anecdotal evidence suggests that groundsel bush (Baccharis halimifolia) has declined in abundance over the past 50 years in Australia, co-incident with the introduction of a suite of biological control agents. While biological control may be responsible for this decline, here we investigate an alternative hypothesis—that long-term change in the favourability of the climate may have changed growth conditions for groundsel bush throughout its Australian range. We also predict what may happen to the future distribution of this species, using a bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX). We found a significant reduction in the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia over the past 50 years at 29 sites in Australia. Under a likely IPCC future climate scenario prediction (decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature), the favourability for growth of B. halimifolia will continue to decrease in Queensland and its distribution may move further south into New South Wales and Victoria. We conclude that climate alone may have had a significant effect on the distribution and abundance of B. halimifolia and future priorities for management of B. halimifolia should focus on its southern distribution. Determining the success of the biological control programme in isolation from the observed climate effects will be difficult. Given the likelihood of future climate change worldwide evaluation of biological control programmes in general will need to also account for climate effects.

Researchers Jennifer Firn and Yvonne M. Buckley focus on impacts of invasive plants on Australian rangeland biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Many of the exotic invasive species within rangelands were intentionally introduced for pasture improvement, soil stabilization, and ornamental purposes. When compared to pastures dominated by native perennial grasses, Gamba grass has been found to use three times the amount of water and to reduce the amount of water available through the soil profile. Dominance by non-native plant species is altering the natural fire regimens of Australian rangelands. Fire is a key driver of species diversity, nutrient cycling, and vegetation dynamics within Australian landscapes. Many species are adapted to fire, relying on heat, and smoke as cues for germination. There is an urgent need for restoration efforts to be re-focused on the present and the future. Invasive species are abundant and widely distributed in the rangelands. © Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

P>Seed longevity has a major influence on the success of weed management and eradication programmes. A correlation between responses to a controlled aging test performed at 45 degrees C, 60% relative humidity (RH) and seed persistence in the field has recently been suggested. Here we investigated whether collections of differing quality of two closely related invasive weeds, Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. monilifera and ssp. rotundata (boneseed and bitou bush, respectively), had different seed longevity using the controlled aging test. Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. monilifera fruits were collected from across five Australian states, and C. monilifera ssp. rotundata from one state, covering their invasive ranges. Seed quality was assessed visually and using tetrazolium staining, and a series of germination tests established appropriate germination conditions. The controlled aging test was run for a subset of collections. Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. rotundata seeds died more quickly (time to lose 50% viability, P(50) = 16 days) than the C. monilifera ssp. monilifera collections (P(50) = 47 days) when aged at 45 degrees C and 60% RH. This difference was significant even considering the large differences in longevity between C. monilifera ssp. monilifera populations (P(50) = 35-61 days; probably due to differences in maturity at collection). Based on a published correlation, we predict that mature C. monilifera ssp. monilifera may have a long-lived (> 3 years) seed bank and C. monilifera ssp. rotundata may have a transient (< 1 year) seed bank. This suggests the two sub-species should be considered separately when designing effective control measures.

1. Identifying the mechanisms that facilitate invasion is crucial for the design of preventative measures and understanding the invasion process, but not necessarily for the design of effective control strategies.

Summary 1. Testing the comparative strength and influence of age and area of islands, proximity of source propagules and disturbances on community assembly, species diversity and vegetation structure has proved difficult at large scales. The little-studied rain forests in the Tropical South Pacific (TSP) provide a unique study area to investigate determinants of community dynamics, with islands varying in age, isolation, area and cyclone frequency. We tested the effects of biogeographical factors and cyclone frequency on the species composition, species diversity and forest structure of oldgrowth rain forest using 1-ha inventory plots on 12 islands between New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. 2. As predicted by the General Dynamic Model of Oceanic Island Biogeography, the biogeographical variables of archipelago age and island area are the most important factors affecting species richness and diversity, with older and larger islands having higher richness and diversity. There is no significant effect of cyclone frequency on species diversity. 3. The theory that diversity drives endemism is not supported in this system as endemism is not correlated with species diversity. Instead, age and isolation of an island best explain patterns of endemism, with the latter suggesting dispersal limitations between archipelagos. 4. Proximity to source area influences species composition of lowland tropical rain forests in the TSP, which is also supported by a strong correlation between geographic distance and floristic similarity. Vector-fitting onto non-metric multidimensional scaling suggests that archipelago age and cyclone frequency may, in addition to proximity to source area, influence species composition. This implies that a species’ tolerance to cyclones affects its abundance at different cyclone frequencies. 5. Synthesis. Both biogeographical variables (island area and isolation) and cyclone frequency appear to affect community assembly in lowland rain forests in the TSP. While species are hence not ecologically equivalent, interspecific ecological differences do not seem to affect the overall patterns of species diversity, which are mostly determined by biogeographical variables, as predicted by the neutral theory.

Woody regrowth is extensive on abandoned agricultural lands and developed pastures worldwide. Regrowth is actively controlled in working pastures, but it could be managed to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other emitting industries with supplementary benefits for biodiversity conservation. This paper explores the case of Brigalow regrowth in the extensive pastoral landscape of north-eastern Australia. By synthesising current ecological knowledge with relevant socio-economic and policy considerations, it examines the potential of the Brigalow regrowth ecosystem to provide dual carbon/biodiversity benefits. Brigalow regrowth sequesters large amounts of carbon, especially when compared to other ecosystems from similar sub-humid climates. In addition, restoring regrowth is likely to have benefits for a wide range of native flora and fauna, including the endangered bridled nailtail wallaby. However, there are knowledge gaps relating to the landscape ecology of Brigalow regrowth and the impacts of management and climate change on carbon/restoration potential. Also, a conflict exists between short-term carbon sequestration and long-term restoration goals and we suggest a role for restoration thinning to resolve this. Regional demand for high biomass regrowth as a carbon offset is likely to be high but ambiguities in carbon policy threaten to diminish the use of natural regrowth for reforestation projects.

We review key issues, available approaches and analyses to encourage and assist practitioners to develop sound plans to evaluate the effectiveness of weed biological control agents at various phases throughout a program. Assessing the effectiveness of prospective agents before release assists the selection process, while post-release evaluation aims to determine the extent that agents are alleviating the ecological, social and economic impacts of the weeds. Information gathered on weed impacts prior to the initiation of a biological control program is necessary to provide baseline data and devise performance targets against which the program can subsequently be evaluated. Detailed data on weed populations, associated plant communities and, in some instances ecosystem processes collected at representative sites in the introduced range several years before the release of agents can be compared with similar data collected later to assess agent effectiveness. Laboratory, glasshouse and field studies are typically used to assess agent effectiveness. While some approaches used for field studies may be influenced by confounding factors, manipulative experiments where agents are excluded (or included) using chemicals or cages are more robust but time-consuming and expensive to implement. Demographic modeling and benefit–cost analyses are increasingly being used to complement other studies. There is an obvious need for more investment in long-term post-release evaluation of agent effectiveness to rigorously document outcomes of biological control programs.

Summary 1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets. 2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data. 3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (k). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for k than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of k estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.

Negative density dependence resulting from intraspecific competition can regulate plant populations by limiting demographic rates (survival, growth, fecundity). However, the strength of intraspecific competition can vary within and among populations due to spatial or temporal environmental heterogeneity, or genetic differences. Quantification of variation under a relatively constant environment is needed to assess the inherent potential for density dependence to vary. This knowledge will help adjust data collection effort required for parameterisation of density dependence. Our review of published plant demographic studies revealed that only half of the studies included the whole life-cycle in the analysis of density dependence. Approximately half of the studies manipulated density, while the rest examined density dependence from observed densities in the field. Regardless of the design used, density dependence was estimated from a small number of replicates. To investigate inherent variation in density dependence during the life-cycle, and the effect of low replication on density dependence estimates, we combined an experimental approach with simulations for an invasive herb Senecio madagascariensis. We found significant negative density dependence for five out of six examined demographic rates in a constant environment, with the strength of density dependence increasing during the life-cycle. An exception was plant growth, in which the direction of density dependence varied from positive to negative depending on the life stage. Simulations showed substantial deviation for density dependence parameterised from a small number of replicates even when environmental variation was minimal. This suggests that data collection procedures currently used to assess the effect of density on plant demographic rates may produce inaccurate estimates, increasing uncertainty in demographic models. Due to variation in the direction and strength of density dependence during the life-cycle, multiple life stages with multiple replicated density levels are required to parameterise density dependence for demographic rates.

The intensity and type of damage exerted by a biological control agent on an invasive plant is often influenced by plant architecture or size, density, distribution and phenology as well as microhabitat. Here, herbivore and pathogen damage thought to be caused by seven biological control agents introduced up to 40 years ago for control of groundsel bush (Baccharis halimifolia) is examined. Sampling was conducted throughout the known introduced range of groundsel bush in Australia to determine how damage type and intensity were influenced by rainfall, temperature, elevation, population density, average plant size and variability in plant size. Sori abundance score (characteristic of the introduced rust fungus) was higher on large plants at high rainfall. Leaf skeletonization was negatively correlated with elevation and leaf miner damage was lower in high density plant populations. Leaf hole damage increased with rainfall particularly on large plants in homogeneous sized populations. Stem-borer damage increased with plant size, but this relationship was influenced by rainfall and plant population density. There was less stem-boring in large populations but the strength of the relationship was influenced by temperature and variation in plant size. Overall considerable variation in intensity of herbivore and pathogen damage was found throughout the range of groundsel bush. If herbivore and pathogen damage impact on plant vital rates and demography it would be expected that biological control success for this species would be patchy and depend on plant size, population density and site location.

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Summary 1. General guidelines for invasive plant management are currently lacking. Population declines may be achieved by focusing control on demographic processes (survival, growth, fecundity) with the greatest impact on population growth rate. However, we often have little demographic information on populations in the early stages of an invasion when control can be most effective. Here we determine whether synthesis of existing demographic data on invasive and native plant populations can address this knowledge problem. 2. We compared population dynamics between invasive and native species using published matrix population models for 21 invasive and 179 native plant species. We examined whether the population growth rate responsiveness to survival, growth and fecundity perturbations varied between invasive and native species, and determined which demographic processes of invaders to target for reductions in population growth rate. 3. Invaders had higher population growth rates ( λ ) than natives, resulting in differences in demographic processes. Perturbations of growth and fecundity transitions (elasticities) were more important for population growth of invaders, whereas perturbations of survival had greater importance for population growth of natives. 4. For both invasive and native species, elasticities of λ to survival increased with life span and decreased with λ ; while elasticities to growth and fecundity decreased with life span and increased with λ . 5. For long-lived invaders, simulated reductions in either survival, growth or fecundity transitions were generally insufficient to produce population declines, whereas multiple reductions in either survival + growth or survival + fecundity were more effective. For short-lived invaders, simulated reductions in growth or fecundity and all pairwise multiple reductions produced population declines. 6. Synthesis and applications . Life history and population growth rate of invasive species are important in the selection of control targets. For rapidly growing populations of short-lived invaders, growth and fecundity transitions should be prioritized as control targets over survival transitions. For long-lived invaders, simultaneous reductions in more than one demographic process, preferably survival and growth, are usually required to ensure population decline. These general guidelines can be applied to rapidly growing new plant invasions and at the invasion front where detailed demographic data on invasive species are lacking.

Invaded landscapes and ecosystems are composed of multiple interacting networks and feed-back loops, sometimes leading to unexpected effects of management actions. In order to plan management for invaded systems we need to explicitly consider management goals before putting actions in place. Actions taken must be justified in terms of their amelioration of impacts of invaders, contribution to the management goals and the costs incurred. # 2. This Special Profile brings together papers on the management of invasive plants, transgenes, animals and diseases, leading to conclusions with clear policy and management relevance and contributing to some of the hottest current topics in invasion ecology: unexpected impacts of invaders, restoration of invasion resistance, distribution mapping, spatial epidemiology, escape of transgenes, community interactions and complex effects of management. # 3. As papers in this Special Profile demonstrate, management for amelioration of the impacts of invasive species will include a wide range of manipulations, not just of the invader itself but of both abiotic and biotic components of the system. In fact, several papers in this Special Profile show that indirect management of the community may be more effective than removal of the invader alone. # 4. As little information is generally available at the beginning of a management programme, an adaptive approach should be taken and the management objectives/goals revised throughout the management process. New methods are emerging for adaptive management; an example is presented in this Special Profile where a Bayesian model used for assessing eradication goals can be updated throughout the management process leading to refinement of management. # 5. Synthesis and applications. Applied research should be directed at providing decision support for managers throughout the management process and can be used to provide predictive tools for risk assessment of new invaders. The science of invasion ecology has much to contribute to the new challenge of natural or enhanced movement of organisms in relation to climate change. Methods and information from invasion ecology can be used to assess management goals, management actions and the risks of potential translocations before they are put in place.

Fraser et al. (Reports, 17 July 2015, p. 302) report a unimodal relationship between productivity and species richness at regional and global scales, which they contrast with the results of Adler et al. (Reports, 23 September 2011, p. 1750). However, both data sets, when analyzed correctly, show clearly and consistently that productivity is a poor predictor of local species richness. EEA Santa Cruz Fil: Tredennick, Andrew T. Utah State University. Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Adler, Peter B. Utah State University. Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Grace, James B. U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Harpole, W. Stanley. Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research – UFZ. Department of Physiological Diversity; Alemania Fil: Borer, Elizabeth T. University of Minnesota. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior; Estados Unidos Fil: Seabloom, Eric W. University of Minnesota. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior; Estados Unidos Fil: Anderson, T. Michael. Wake Forest University. Department of Biology; Estados Unidos Fil: Bakker, Jonathan D. University of Washington. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Biederman, Lori A. lowa State University Ecology. Evolution and Organismal Biology; Estados Unidos Fil: Brown, Cynthia S. Colorado State University. Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management; Estados Unidos Fil: Buckley, Yvonne M. University of Dublin. School of Natural Sciences. Trinity College Dublin. Zoology; Irlanda. Fil: Chu, Chengjin. Sun Yat-sen University. School of Life Sciences; China. Fil: Collins, Scott L. University of New Mexico. Department of Biology; Estados Unidos Fil: Crawley, Michael J. Imperial College London. Department of Biology; Reino Unido Fil: Fay, Philip A. USDA-ARS. Grassland, Soil, and Water Research Laboratory; Estados Unidos Fil: Firn, Jennifer. Queensland University of Technology. School of Earth, Environmental and Biological Sciences; Australia. Fil: Gruner, Daniel S. University of Maryland. Department of Entomology. Plant Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Hagenah, Nicole. University of KwaZulu-Natal. School of Life Sciences; Sudáfrica Fil: Hautier, Yann. Utrecht University. Department of Biology, Ecology and Biodiversity group; Países Bajos Fil: Hector, Andy. University of Oxford. Department of Plant Sciences; Reino Unido Fil: Hillebrand, Helmut. Carl-von-Ossietzky University. Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment; Alemania Fil: Kirkman, Kevin. University of KwaZulu-Natal. School of Life Sciences; Sudáfrica Fil: Knops, Johannes M. H. University of Nebraska. School of Biological Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Laungani, Ramesh. Doane College. Biology Department; Estados Unidos Fil: Lind, Eric M. University of Minnesota. Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior; Estados Unidos. Fil: MacDougall, Andrew S. University of Guelph. Department of Integrative Biology; Canadá. Fil: McCulley, Rebecca L. University of Kentucky. Department of Plant and Soil Science; Estados Unidos Fil: Mitchell, Charles E. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Department of Biology; Estados Unidos Fil: Moore, Joslin L. Monash University. School of Biological Sciences; Australia. Fil: Morgan, John W. La Trobe University. Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution; Australia. Fil: Orrock, John L. University of Wisconsin. Department of Zoology; Estados Unidos Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina. Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral; Argentina. Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Prober, Suzanne M. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Land and Water; Australia. Fil: Risch, Anita C. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research. Community Ecology; Suiza Fil: Schütz, Martin. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research. Community Ecology; Suiza Fil: Speziale, Karina L. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente (INIBIOMA). Universidad Nacional del Comahue; Argentina. Fil: Standish, Rachel J. Murdoch University. School of Veterinary and Life Sciences; Australia. Fil: Sullivan, Lauren L. University of Minnesota. Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior; Estados Unidos Fil: Wardle, Glenda M. University of Sydney. School of Biological Sciences; Australia. Fil: Williams, Ryan J. Iowa State University. Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering; Estados Unidos Fil: Yang, Louie H. University of California. Department of Entomology and Nematology; Estados Unidos

The identification of patterns in life-history strategies across the tree of life is essential to our prediction of population persistence, extinction, and diversification. Plants exhibit a wide range of patterns of longevity, growth, and reproduction, but the general determinants of this enormous variation in life history are poorly understood. We use demographic data from 418 plant species in the wild, from annual herbs to supercentennial trees, to examine how growth form, habitat, and phylogenetic relationships structure plant life histories and to develop a framework to predict population performance. We show that 55% of the variation in plant life-history strategies is adequately characterized using two independent axes: the fast-slow continuum, including fast-growing, short-lived plant species at one end and slow-growing, long-lived species at the other, and a reproductive strategy axis, with highly reproductive, iteroparous species at one extreme and poorly reproductive, semelparous plants with frequent shrinkage at the other. Our findings remain consistent across major habitats and are minimally affected by plant growth form and phylogenetic ancestry, suggesting that the relative independence of the fast-slow and reproduction strategy axes is general in the plant kingdom. Our findings have similarities with how life-history strategies are structured in mammals, birds, and reptiles. The position of plant species populations in the 2D space produced by both axes predicts their rate of recovery from disturbances and population growth rate. This life-history framework may complement trait-based frameworks on leaf and wood economics; together these frameworks may allow prediction of responses of plants to anthropogenic disturbances and changing environments.

The study was undertaken at Bulli State Forest, in the eastern Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia. The State Forest includes a minor area (65 ha) of sedentary cracking clay in the western portion with limited gilgai development. This area supports remnant (undisturbed) open forest of Brigalow and Belah (Casuarina cristata Miq.) (Regional Ecosystem 11.9.5, Young et al. 1999) and adjacent regrowth Brigalow communities of two ages (39 and 27 years old). Clearing permits indicate that the 39-year old regrowth (herein referred to as ‘old regrowth’) was originally cleared by ringbarking in 1968 and has been allowed to regenerate without subsequent clearing or thinning. The 27-year-old regrowth (herein referred to as ‘young regrowth’) was first cleared in 1968 by pulling and was later re-pulled in the early 1980s. Mean annual rainfall is 578 mm, with December, the wettest month, receiving 76.5 mm on average.

Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is widely accepted to be nutrient limited. Although nitrogen is deemed a key determinant of aboveground net primary production, the prevalence of co-limitation by nitrogen and phosphorus is increasingly recognized. However, the extent to which terrestrial productivity is co-limited by nutrients other than nitrogen and phosphorus, such as potassium and micronutrients, has remained unclear. Here, we report results from a standardized factorial nutrient addition experiment, in which we added nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium combined with a selection of micronutrients (K+μ), alone or in concert, to 42 grasslands spanning five continents, and monitored aboveground net primary production. Nutrient availability limited productivity at 31 of the 42 grassland sites studied. Pairwise combinations of N, P, and K+μ co-limited aboveground net primary production at 24 of the 42 sites, and nitrogen limitation peaked in cool, high latitude sites. Our findings indicate widespread variation in the combination of nutrients that limit aboveground grassland productivity, and highlight the importance of potassium and micronutrients, and an apparent absence of limitation by the nutrients we considered at some sites. This variation in nutrient limitation must be considered when assessing the ecosystem-scale consequences of nutrient enrichment.

Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands., It remains unclear whether exotic and native species are functionally different. Using a global grassland experiment, Seabloom et al. show that native and exotic species respond differently to two globally pervasive environmental changes, addition of mineral nutrients and alteration of herbivore density.

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

1. Some of the most damaging invasive plants are dispersed by frugivores and this is an area of emerging importance in weed management. It highlights the need for practical information on how frugivores affect weed population dynamics and spread, how frugivore populations are affected by weeds and what management recommendations are available. 2. Fruit traits influence frugivore choice. Fruit size, the presence of an inedible peel, defensive chemistry, crop size and phenology may all be useful traits for consideration in screening and eradication programmes. By considering the effect of these traits on the probability, quality and quantity of seed dispersal, it may be possible to rank invasive species by their desirability to frugivores. Fruit traits can also be manipulated with biocontrol agents. 3. Functional groups of frugivores can be assembled according to broad species groupings, and further refined according to size, gape size, pre- and post-ingestion processing techniques and movement patterns, to predict dispersal and establishment patterns for plant introductions. 4. Landscape fragmentation can increase frugivore dispersal of invasives, as many invasive plants and dispersers readily use disturbed matrix environments and fragment edges. Dispersal to particular landscape features, such as perches and edges, can be manipulated to function as seed sinks if control measures are concentrated in these areas. 5. Where invasive plants comprise part of the diet of native frugivores, there may be a conservation conflict between control of the invasive and maintaining populations of the native frugivore, especially where other threats such as habitat destruction have reduced populations of native fruit species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Development of functional groups of frugivore-dispersed invasive plants and dispersers will enable us to develop predictions for novel dispersal interactions at both population and community scales. Increasingly sophisticated mechanistic seed dispersal models combined with spatially explicit simulations show much promise for providing weed managers with the information they need to develop strategies for surveying, eradicating and managing plant invasions. Possible conservation conflicts mean that understanding the nature of the invasive plant-frugivore interaction is essential for determining appropriate management.

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

1. Coupled plant-herbivore models, allowing feedback from plant to herbivore populations and vice versa, enable us to predict the impact of biocontrol agents on their target weed populations; however, they are rarely used in biocontrol studies. We describe the population biology of the invasive plant Echium plantagineum and the weevil Mogulones larvatus, a biocontrol agent, in Australia. In order to understand the dynamics of this plant-herbivore system, a series of coupled models of increasing complexity was developed. 2. A simple model was extended to include a seed bank, density-dependent plant fecundity, competition between weevil larvae and plant tolerance of herbivory, where below a threshold plants could compensate for larval feeding. Parameters and functional forms were estimated from experimental and field data. 3. The plant model, in the absence of the weevil, exhibited stable dynamics and provided a good quantitative description of field densities before the weevil was introduced. 4. In the coupled plant-herbivore model, density dependence in both plant fecundity and weevil larval competition stabilized the dynamics. Without larval competition the model was unstable, and plant tolerance of herbivory exacerbated this instability. This was a result of a time delay in plant response to herbivore densities. 5. Synthesis and applications. The coupled plant-herbivore model allowed us to predict whether stable coexistence of target plant and biocontrol agents was achievable at an acceptable level. We found this to be the case for the Echium-Mogulones system and believe that similar models would be of use when assessing new agents in this and other invasive plant biocontrol systems. Density dependence in new biocontrol agents should be assessed in order to determine whether it is likely to result in the aims of classical biocontrol: low, stable and sustainable populations of plant and herbivore. Further work should be done to characterize the strength of density dependence according to the niche occupied by the biocontrol agent, for example the strength and functional form of density dependence in stem borers may be quite different to that of defoliators.

1. Most invasive plant species are not well controlled and where biocontrol programs are in place only one third are fully successful. Integrated weed management (IWM) emphasises the use of several complementary control measures. Choosing which combinations will yield control and how biocontrol fits within the strategy requires detailed knowledge of the dynamics of the target and its ecosystem. 2. We used models of increasing complexity to determine which parameters affect site occupancy of an invasive shrub, Mimosa pigra L. in tropical Australia. Two introduced biocontrol agents have spatial effects on both plant fecundity and the probability of recolonisation after senescence. We incorporated biocontrol effects into IWM models with disturbance, mechanical control, herbicide and fire. The models were parameterised from experimental and field data. 3. Models indicate that the reduction in fecundity is not the most important impact of biocontrol; rather it is through defoliation at the edges of stands allowing grasses to out-compete M. pigra seedlings. We demonstrate that biocontrol alone is only successful at low disturbance and seedling survival and even then, current biocontrol agents would take decades to reduce a stand to

1. Hypericum perforatum , St John's wort, is an invasive perennial herb that is especially problematic on waste ground, roadsides, pastures and open woodland in south-eastern Australia. We use detailed data from a long-term observational study to develop quantitative models of the factors affecting growth, survival and fecundity of H. perforatum individuals. 2. Multi-level or hierarchical mixed-effects statistical models are used to analyse how environmental and intrinsic plant variables affect growth and reproduction within a complex nested spatial and temporal context. These techniques are relatively underused in ecology, despite the prevalence of multi-level and repeated-measures data generated from ecological studies. 3. We found that plant size (rosette or flowering stems) was strongly correlated with all life stages studied (growth, probability of flowering, asexual reproduction, survival and fruit production). Environmental variables such as herbivory, ground cover and rainfall had significant effects on several life stages. 4. Significant spatial variation at the quadrat level was found in the probability of flowering, flowering stem growth and fruit production models; variation at all other spatial levels in all models was non-significant. Yearly temporal variation was significant in all models where multi-year data were available. 5. Plants in shaded habitats were smaller but had higher survival probabilities than plants in open habitats. They are therefore likely to have slightly different population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. Analysis of these models for H. perforatum has provided insights into which plant traits and environmental factors determine how populations increase and persist in exotic ecosystems, enabling population management strategies to be most effectively targeted. Spatially and temporally correlated data are often collected in long-term ecological studies and multi-level models are a way in which we can fully exploit the wealth of data available. Without these tools data are either underexploited or crucial assumptions of independence on which many statistics are based are contravened

We compared the general ecology and population profiles of Jatropha standleyi and J. chamelensis, two ecologically similar, dioecious forest trees in order to illuminate why they differ in range size, an important measure of relative commonness and rarity. Jatropha standleyi is widespread throughout the tropical deciduous forest in Mexico and the endangered J. chamelensis is restricted to a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Using data collected over the same time period from a site central to the distributions of both species, we found significant differences in population size distributions and seedling mortality, but no discernible differences in seedling or adult growth rates, local abundance or local distribution. The observed difference in relative rarity could be explained by a number of hypotheses depending on whether the populations are at a stable equilibrium or not. The high ratio of pre-reproductive individuals may indicate a growing, rather than stable, population for J. chamelensis. Jatropha standleyi is more widespread and has a significantly lower ratio of pre-reproductive to mature individuals. Alternatively, both populations may be at equilibrium with J. chamelensis restricted to its limited range by large-scale environmental constraints or niche differences not elucidated in this study. In either case however, the greater and less variable seed output of the J. standleyi population will also mean a greater number of rare long-distance dispersal events and a better chance of establishing a persistent remote population for J. standleyi than for J. chamelensis. The dioecy to be found in both these species would exacerbate the limiting effects of low seed production on the ability of a species to ‘travel’ successfully. A more extensive field investigation of mortality and factors contributing to mortality in sub-canopy and pre-reproductive individuals would allow more light to be shed on relative population processes in these species.