51. Risk factors for COVID-19 progression and mortality in hospitalized patients without pre-existing comorbidities
- Author
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Lijin Lin, Xiao-Jing Zhang, Weifang Liu, Xuewei Huang, Zhi-Gang She, Peng Zhang, Feng Wan, Bing-Hong Zhang, Hongliang Li, Yuan-gao Liao, Lei Wang, Yufeng Yuan, and Chengzhang Yang
- Subjects
Male ,BUN, blood urea nitrogen ,CK, creatine phosphokinase ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 ,HDLs, high-density lipoproteins ,Procalcitonin ,HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ,ULN, upper limit of normal ,Risk Factors ,Interquartile range ,SAA, serum amyloid A ,IL-6, interleukin-6 ,SpO2, oxygen saturation ,COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019 ,LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator ,LDH, lactate dehydrogenase ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Without comorbidities ,ICU, intensive care unit ,Infectious Diseases ,Cohort ,Absolute neutrophil count ,Original Article ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 ,Partial thromboplastin time ,medicine.medical_specialty ,RT-PCR, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction ,ALT, alanine transaminase ,WHO, World Health Organization ,FiO2, inhaled oxygen concentration ,cTnI, cardiac troponin I ,Severity ,PaO2, arterial partial pressure of oxygen ,LLN, lower limit of normal ,PT, prothrombin time ,Internal medicine ,cTnT, cardiac troponin T ,medicine ,Humans ,Mortality ,Risk factor ,APTT, activated partial thromboplastin time ,ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome ,IQR, interquartile range ,Retrospective Studies ,Prothrombin time ,ALP, alkaline phosphatase ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,Retrospective cohort study ,OR, odds ratio ,Oxygen Saturation ,hs-cTnI, high sensitivity cardiac troponin I ,CI, confidence intervals ,SARS-COV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ,hs-cTnT, high-sensitivity troponin T ,business ,ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation ,CT, chest tomography - Abstract
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to escalate intensively worldwide. Massive studies on general populations with SARS-CoV-2 infection have revealed that pre-existing comorbidities were a major risk factor for the poor prognosis of COVID-19. Notably, 49–75% of COVID-19 patients had no comorbidities, but this cohort would also progress to severe COVID-19 or even death. However, risk factors contributing to disease progression and death in patients without chronic comorbidities are largely unknown; thus, specific clinical interventions for those patients are challenging. Methods: A multicenter, retrospective study based on 4806 COVID-19 patients without chronic comorbidities was performed to identify potential risk factors contributing to COVID-19 progression and death using LASSO and a stepwise logistic regression model. Results: Among 4806 patients without pre-existing comorbidities, the proportions with severe progression and mortality were 34.29% and 2.10%, respectively. The median age was 47.00 years [interquartile range, 36.00–56.00], and 2162 (44.99%) were men. Among 51 clinical parameters on admission, age ≥ 47, oxygen saturation < 95%, increased lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophil count, direct bilirubin, creatine phosphokinase, blood urea nitrogen levels, dyspnea, increased blood glucose and prothrombin time levels were associated with COVID-19 mortality in the entire cohort. Of the 3647 patients diagnosed with non-severe COVID-19 on admission, 489(13.41%) progressed to severe disease. The risk factors associated with COVID-19 progression from non-severe to severe illness were increased procalcitonin levels, SpO2 < 95%, age ≥ 47, increased LDH, activated partial thromboplastin time levels, decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, dyspnea and increased D-dimer levels. Conclusions: COVID-19 patients without pre-existing chronic comorbidities have specific traits and disease patterns. COVID-19 accompanied by severe bacterial infections, as indicated by increased procalcitonin levels, was highly associated with disease progression from non-severe to severe. Aging, impaired respiratory function, coagulation dysfunction, tissue injury, and lipid metabolism dysregulation were also associated with disease progression. Once factors for multi-organ damage were elevated and glucose increased at admission, these findings indicated a higher risk for mortality. This study provides information that helps to predict COVID-19 prognosis specifically in patients without chronic comorbidities.
- Published
- 2022
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