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AbstractMaintaining human capital at an optimal level is among the important mechanisms for ensuring steady economic growth. This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on Ethiopia’s economic growth. The study used the ARDL model applying annual data for the period 1980 to 2020. The ARDL-bound test was used to evaluate the presence of con-integration between human capital and independent variables. The study also applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to check the stationarity of the variables. The test result presented that almost all variables become stationary after the first difference. Accordingly, the result from the bound test indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables entered into the model. The estimated error correction model with a − 0.9528 coefficient also confirmed the existence of co-integration with a high speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. In the long-run real GDP, education expenditure, health expenditure, labor force, gross capital formation, total government expenditure, official development assistance, secondary school enrolment, consumer price index, drought, and policy change have astable long-run connection. The finding indicates an increasing ratio of health expenditure and secondary school enrollment should be designed, among others, to contain improved human capital in Ethiopia.

The machined surface in the industrial cutting environment is often covered by some interference factors, such as chips or coolant residuals, which make the existing methods have large detection errors. Therefore, the interference factors in the cutting environment seriously affect the sustainability detection and evaluation of the processed surface quality. This paper discusses the relationship between interference factors and roughness to study the sustainability detection of roughness. Firstly, a multidimensional feature parameter matrix with strong correlation with surface roughness is extracted and constructed based on the gray level co-occurrence matrix. On this basis, the adverse effects of interference factors (chips) on image feature parameters are quantitatively analyzed. According to the relationship between chip area and error change rate of feature parameters, an error correction model is constructed to optimize the feature parameters that change due to interference factors. The error correction model greatly reduces the negative influence of chip interference. This is the core of this paper. Further, the BP neural network model and support vector machine (SVM) model are used to predict the surface roughness with the optimized multi-dimensional feature parameters matrix as input, respectively. The above process realizes the sustainable detection of machined surface roughness. At the same time, in order to facilitate industrial applications, this paper uses LabVIEW software and MATLAB software to package the above research into a software system. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the sustainable detection research are verified by practical application in the industrial scene. This study promotes the sustainable development between product safety and environmental impact in the industrial manufacturing process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For curbing the global climate crisis, China has set an ambitious target of peak carbon emissions by 2030. Beijing, the capital of China, has implemented a carbon reduction policy since 2012. Using the reduced and generalized forms of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), we deduce that both the cubic EKC and the genetic algorithm-based EKC have an N-shape. The first turning point of the three-order EKC occurs around 2011, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon reduction policy. However, the time series model predicts that Beijing will reach the second turning point around 2026, when the gross domestic product (GDP) is about CNY 5000 billion and carbon emissions will begin to increase again. Interpretable machine learning is proposed to explore the socio-economic drivers in carbon emissions, indicating that total energy consumption and GDP contribute the most. Therefore, we should accelerate the upgrading of energy consumption and adjust the industrial structure, thus facilitating Beijing to its peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inverse finite element method (iFEM) is a novel method for reconstructing the full-field displacement of structures by discrete measurement strain. In practical engineering applications, the accuracy of iFEM is reduced due to the positional offset of strain sensors during installation and errors in structural installation. Therefore, a coarse and fine two-stage calibration (CFTSC) method is proposed to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction of structures. Firstly, the coarse calibration is based on a single-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (SOPSO) to optimize the displacement–strain transformation matrix related to the sensor position. Secondly, as selecting different training data can affect the training effect of self-constructed fuzzy networks (SCFN), this paper proposes to screen the appropriate training data based on residual analysis. Finally, the experiments of the wing-integrated antenna structure verify the efficiency of the method on the reconstruction accuracy of the structural body displacement field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze price transmission dynamics in the under‐investigated feed supply chain, applying a special case of the Threshold Vector Error Correction model where the cointegrating relationship is interrupted. Weekly Italian dairy feed and corn prices are used, finding evidence of asymmetric price transmission when the feed industry's margins are squeezed and highly volatile. The proposed Interrupted Threshold Cointegration model represents a valid complement to existing threshold and regime‐switching techniques, allowing for the application of an agile nonstructural error correction model when standard cointegration tests fail to detect any long‐run relationship between price series. [EconLit Citations: Q11, Q13, C24]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism demand modelling is one of the most studied areas in tourism economics, particularly focused on time series and econometric research. In this study, directly interpretable one-equation techniques are utilised, i.e. the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) and the derived error correction model (ECM). To complement the sharing of information and habits in tourism, we apply regressors derived from wages, general prices, and dummies. For the Czech and Austrian data, short-as well as long-run sets of outputs act differently, regarding the specific situation. Such information can straightforwardly be applied to the effective planning of various activities covering the public and private sectors. The results are completed by the standard cointegration testing procedure and residual analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the relationships between the key components of the levels of socioeconomic development of Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The aim of the study is to build a model of intercountry regression of per capita economic growth of both Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to perform a comparative cross-country analysis of the key component of inclusive growth of the two countries under the strong influence of financial and socioeconomic crisis processes and the ongoing war. The study is aimed at an empirical study of the joint movement of both indicators, the identification of cause-and-effect relationships and cointegration dependence, the determination of a long-term integration relationship, allowing to take the necessary steps and measures for the positive mutual impact of trade and economic relations between the two countries on the national socioeconomic development. As the level of economic development, GDP per capita was used, taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP). The analysis of the dynamic relationship of indicators is carried out on the basis of data from January 1990 to December 2022. The study uses econometric methodology, including the extended Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of a single root, the Granger test for causality, the Engle–Johansen tests for cointegration, the vector model of error correction, and standard diagnostic tests. Tests for stationarity, causality, and cointegration were performed at the 10% significance level in the entire sample. The cointegration of the integrated 1st order of non-stationary initial series is revealed, where the preferred variant is the one with a trend, in which the marginal rate of restoration of equilibrium between GDP per capita at PPP of the two countries in the current year after the shock of the independent variable in the previous year is noted. The result, showing that GDP per capita at the PPP of Ukraine is in a slight positive dependence on GDP per capita at the PPP of Azerbaijan, is obtained. The empirical model explains 95% of the variation in the initial levels, and the equation of the vector error correction system 51% explains the differences. Recommendations are provided to ensure a long-term equilibrium of the joint movement of GDP at the PPP of both countries and to reduce the imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new quadratic asymmetric error correction model that comprehensively accounts for both sign and size asymmetries. We also propose a test protocol that allows to rigorously identify different sources of long-run nonlinearity, namely quadratic nonlinearity, size asymmetry and sign asymmetry. We use a nonparametric residual recursive bootstrap technique to report p-values for the long-run tests. Simulation results confirm the consistency of our proposed estimator in finite samples and show that the bootstrapped tests have reasonably good size and power properties. Although our estimation of the Okun's Law for the USA confirms previous findings on the direction of the sign asymmetry, its reveals that the magnitude of the impact of economic downturns on unemployment decreases faster than the impact of upturns. Forecasting results show that our new model performs better than NARDL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs threshold cointegration technique that allows for asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium relationship in order to examine the relationship between international and domestic prices of wheat in Algeria. The short-run adjustments are also examined with asymmetric error correction models. The analysis is based on annual series of international and domestic wheat prices. The time interval for the study runs from 1965 to 2021 using official data from national and international official organizations. The results indicate that the price transmission between the domestic and international price level of wheat is asymmetric, especially in the presence of structural breaks. The asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration provides strong evidence supporting asymmetric price behavior. Increases in the international price of wheat are transmitted more quickly to domestic prices than declines, which exhibit the increased vulnerability of the domestic market to be reconsidered.

The decline in natural rubber farmgate prices in recent years directly impacted Indonesia’s natural rubber market. In response to this phenomenon, the government plans to increase natural rubber domestic consumption to raise Indonesia’s rubber price. This study aimed to determine the effect of increasing natural rubber domestic consumption on natural rubber farmgate prices and analyze other factors those influence it. The Error Correction Model was used to identify the variables that significantly affect Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price. The data used in this study were monthly data from January 2012 to December 2017. Results showed that natural rubber domestic consumption did not significantly affect the Indonesia natural rubber farmgate price. However, in the long run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, world crude oil prices, and exchange rates. While in the short run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, and exchange rate.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of Indonesian coffee exports, coffee export prices, Indonesian coffee production and consumption, the rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) in the international market, and analyze the factors that influence the supply of Indonesian coffee exports. The data analysis method used is descriptive method and quantitative method. The quantitative method used to analyze the factors that affect the volume of Indonesian coffee exports in the short term is the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. The result of showed that the development of Indonesian coffee exports in 1990-2020 showed fluctuations in both the volume, value, and price of Indonesian coffee exports. Based on the results of the analysis using ECM, it was found that the supply of Indonesian coffee exports in the short term was significantly influenced by coffee production and had a positive effect. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coffee export supply in the long term is significantly influenced by coffee production and international coffee prices and the effect is positive. Meanwhile, only in the long term, coffee export prices have a significant negative impact on Indonesia's coffee export supply. The implications of policies that can be taken by the government to maintain or increase market share in conditions of increasingly fierce competition are that coffee productivity must be increased (reduce production costs) so that the relative price of Indonesian coffee is cheaper and in the end the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee exports can increase. In addition, there is a need for a policy of diversifying coffee products into processed coffee through the use of post-harvest technology so as to create added value for coffee to overcome fluctuations in domestic and international coffee prices.

Copyright of Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness / Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia is the property of IPB University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management / Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We investigate the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Black Sea Wheat Futures. Black Sea Wheat Futures are cointegrated with the Kansas City Wheat Futures, the global standard for wheat prices; however, the relationship between these two series significantly changes as a reaction to the main geopolitical events in the region. A significant drop in open interest after the invasion is also documented. The results of this study are relevant to many market participants, such as Ukrainian farmers and consumers in developing countries, including the World Food Program, which buys about forty percent of its wheat supplies from Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palm oil is a product of full benefits and has many economic contributions. The prospect of palm oil in the international market of vegetable oil trade is up-and-coming, prompting the Indonesian government to spur export palm oil development. Indonesian palm oil exports to Egypt are expected to fulfill the strong demand for various food and non-food applications of palm oil for Egyptian domestic market needs. This article describes the most crucial determinant influencing the Indonesian palm oil export supply to Egypt. The current study overcomes the problem of time series data; such as spurious regression and non-stationary data through cointegration. The research involves testing the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables and estimating an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables. The findings show that the Indonesian palm oil export supply to Egypt is significantly influenced by international prices, domestic production volume, interest rates, and the Rupiah exchange rate against the Egyptian Pound. The policy recommendation to maintain the exchange rate at a reasonable level needs to be carried out to increase Indonesian palm oil exports to Egypt. On the other hand, a low-interest rate can be an alternative to promoting policies to increase exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of the study. Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Materials and methods. In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.Conclusion. The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.

The outburst of the Covid-19 brought anxiety that led to social distancing, staying at home, restrictions in traveling locally and internationally, and finally, the financial instability globally as many economic activities shut down. Consequently, the study examined the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on exchange rate volatility from February 29, 2020, to March 31, 2021. The study utilized two-time series data which were sourced from daily reports on covid-19 from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and daily exchange rates US$/Nigerian₦ from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The study used Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze the data. The bound test was used in the survey to establish a level of association between the independent variables and the regressor set. The findings revealed that daily reported COVID-19 instances, daily death cases, and cumulative death cases had a positive effect on Nigerian exchange rate volatility. Conversely, confirmed cumulative coronavirus cases do not impact the exchange rate in Nigeria in the short run. Coronavirus significantly affected all macroeconomic indices, including the exchange rate. The study will be helpful to the government and its agencies in the determination of the palliatives for the needy citizens. It will also help the policymakers to develop strategies that can stabilize the economy and health sector to reduce the effect of the pandemic on the citizenry.

We investigate the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Black Sea Wheat futures. We find that the Black Sea Wheat futures are cointegrated with the Kansas City Wheat futures, the global standard for wheat prices. However, the relationship between these two series significantly changes as a reaction to the main geopolitical events in the region. We also document a significant drop in open interest after the invasion. Our results are relevant to many market participants, such as Ukrainian farmers and consumers in developing countries, including the World Food Program, which buys about forty percent of its wheat supplies from Ukraine.

International trade has created more economic growth opportunities in the agriculture sector. The agricultural sector remains key to the South African economy, with a vibrant international market becoming available as the country's agriculture exports grow. However, the impacts of human-caused global warming have intensified as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO2), which negatively affects agricultural productivity and the economy. Considering the future energy resource demands for agricultural productivity due to the expected population growth and the emphasis on environmental remedial actions, the following question presents itself: what impact will a clean energy supply have on the agricultural economy and the environment, notwithstanding that agriculture, as a sector, also has a huge potential to contribute to renewable energy production? This study examines the effect of the nexus of South Africa's renewable energy supply, CO2 emissions and trade openness on agricultural economic growth from 1990 to 2021. The nexus provides crucial insights into policies targeted at promoting renewable energy in the agricultural sector by isolating key areas of priority. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) test, a dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) test and a canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) econometric analysis were used to estimate the nexus. The results showed that growth in the agricultural sector leads to deterioration in the environment, while international trade benefits the sector. The scale of renewable energy supply slowed down the agricultural economy. The study makes a new contribution in providing empirical evidence for the links between renewable energy supply and agricultural GDP, which can drive policy on renewable energy use in the agricultural sector in South Africa. The paper recommends intentional renewable energy production research and development (R&D) finance focusing on renewable energy human development planning and investments in vocational programmes in higher learning institutes, agricultural renewable energy policy and the creation of green incentive schemes for feedstock producers, especially in rural areas in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines how trade influences the environment via the effects of scale, composition, and technique. The study is conducted for Pakistan based on yearly data between 1980 and 2020. The study takes into both symmetric and asymmetric analyses of trade and environment. The symmetric analysis is carried out through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. ARDL ignores the nonlinear association between the variables and captures only the linear relationship among variables whereas nonlinear ARDL captures the asymmetry. Results of the symmetric analysis show that scale and composition effect positively contribute to CO2 emission while technique effect is inversely related to CO2 release. Openness to trade accelerates the CO2 discharge. The findings also confirm the presence of the pollution haven proposition. Moreover, natural resource abundance increases emissions while better governance reduces the emission. The asymmetric analysis illustrates that there is a nonlinear association between trade openness and carbon dioxide emission. The rise and decline in trade are found to be positive and insignificant respectively. Moreover, the findings of asymmetric analysis follow the findings of the symmetric analysis in direction. The study suggests that emissions can be reduced by using environment-friendly technology and by improving governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To obtain an accurate prediction model of surface roughness on the premise of low experimental cost in precision machining processes, this paper proposes two error correction models of the subsection theoretical model of arithmetic mean height roughness (Ra) in turning. The prediction performance of the two error correction models was evaluated by 25 groups of turning data of AISI1045 steel. The determination coefficient (R2) of the 10 random runs of the two correction models are both above 0.9, the mean squared error (MSE) is lower than 0.05, and the standard deviations (StdDev) of R2 and MSE are 0.01. The experimental results show that the two error correction models significantly improve the prediction accuracy and stability of the subsection theoretical model. Moreover, the influence of turning parameters and tool geometry on Ra based on the two correction models and the subsection theoretical model as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the three models is analysed, which provide an effective guidance for the selection of parameters and the prediction model in actual machining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), based on arbitrage theory, emphasizes that a market can rebalance itself After the occurrence of an arbitrage opportunity. This capability of financial markets confirms the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. This study tests the validity of APT on the Istanbul Stock Exchange between the period of January 2009 and March 2020 on BIST100. Purposing to determine the relationship between security returns and other macroeconomic factor, it will serve as a compass for other emerging countries. With stock return factor as independent variable, this study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (from the VAR family model) with five macro-economic factors: GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and the countries' production indexes. The resulting model depicts a negative Error Correction Term (ECT) which indicates the validity of the model in the Turkish stock exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Menoufia Journal of Agricultural Economic & Social Science is the property of Egyptian National Agricultural Library (ENAL) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Market integration is a metric for market efficiency, notably pricing efficiency. This paper examined the type and degree of market integration in Bangladesh using the latest available weekly rice market price data from the six district markets in Bangladesh from January 2014 to December 2018. The findings demonstrated that the wholesale price series of rice are stationary at first difference, but non-stationary at levels. The vector error correction model is then implemented after the Johansen-Juselius approach has been used to examine the cointegrating relationship between the various district markets. The negative and statistically significant coefficients of error correction term for the rice markets in the Barishal, Chattogram, and Sylhet districts show that short-run dynamics are convergent with longterm equilibrium. According to the estimated results of the error correction model, there is an equilibrium relationship between the rice markets in Dhaka with rice markets in Barishal, Chattogram, Dinajpur, and Khulna over the long run. In the short run, the calculated coefficient values, however, indicate that there is only a weak transmission of price changes from one district market to another within the same week. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining human capital at an optimal level is among the important mechanisms for ensuring steady economic growth. This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on Ethiopia's economic growth. The study used the ARDL model applying annual data for the period 1980 to 2020. The ARDL-bound test was used to evaluate the presence of con-integration between human capital and independent variables. The study also applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to check the stationarity of the variables. The test result presented that almost all variables become stationary after the first difference. Accordingly, the result from the bound test indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables entered into the model. The estimated error correction model with a − 0.9528 coefficient also confirmed the existence of co-integration with a high speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. In the long-run real GDP, education expenditure, health expenditure, labor force, gross capital formation, total government expenditure, official development assistance, secondary school enrolment, consumer price index, drought, and policy change have astable long-run connection. The finding indicates an increasing ratio of health expenditure and secondary school enrollment should be designed, among others, to contain improved human capital in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial stability is one of the main factors for a country's economic sustainability nowadays. Financial instability has adverse effects on the economy which can lead to the financial crisis. This research tries to answer how monetary policy related to Indonesian financial stability in the short and long term, how specific the relations between its parts such as money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate to indonesian financial stability, and which one of these parts that have ways more effective to influence Indonesian financial stability. This research data use time series quarterly as quantitative data in Indonesia. By employing econometric models of error correction on quarter data that consist of the stationary stochastic process, long-run model and cointegration approach and error correction model, this model can indicate how quickly the effect of the money supply, interest rate or exchange rate is fully accepted by the financial stability in the short term. The finding of this study showed that the increase in interest rate began to be able to improve indonesian financial stability responsively in four times the period, namely an increase of one percent in interest rate could increase 0.4161 percent of financial stability in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Semestre Económico is the property of Sello Editorial de la Universidad de Medellin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The present study is conducted to check the effect of the collection of macroeconomic variables on Indian sustainability indices. The independent variables adopted are Industrial Index, Wholesale Price Index, Economy Money Supply (M3), Crude Oil Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), while dependent variables are S&P BSE GREENEX and S&P BSE CARBONEX. The study uses monthly data (converted into natural log form) from April 2012 to March 2021. Our study shows that GREENEX is linked with the index of Industrial Production, Wholesale Price Index, M3, Crude Oil Prices, and (REER) and CARBONEX is linked with the index of Industrial Production, M3, Crude Oil Prices, and REER while it is not linked with wholesale prices index. There is no association of interest rates with any of the indices taken (GREENEX and CARBONEX). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs threshold cointegration technique that allows for asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium relationship in order to examine the relationship between international and domestic prices of wheat in Algeria. The short-run adjustments are also examined with asymmetric error correction models. The analysis is based on annual series of international and domestic wheat prices. The time interval for the study runs from 1965 to 2021 using official data from national and international official organizations. The results indicate that the price transmission between the domestic and international price level of wheat is asymmetric, especially in the presence of structural breaks. The asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration provides strong evidence supporting asymmetric price behavior. Increases in the international price of wheat are transmitted more quickly to domestic prices than declines, which exhibit the increased vulnerability of the domestic market to be reconsidered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For countries that participate in international trade, exchange rate management is crucial as the exchange rate affects the competitiveness of the country in international trade. This affects the country’s balance of payments (BOP) position and economic growth. This paper, therefore, set out to find out how Covid-19 containment measures have affected the Malawi Kwacha-US Dollar exchange rate, as well as money supply. Previous studies have assessed the short-term impacts of Covid-19 on the Malawian economy in general, without considering how they have affected the exchange rate and money supply. This study adds to the literature by analyzing how the Covid-19 containment measures have affected the exchange rate, and consequently, the money supply in Malawi. The study employs the dummy variables approach and the vector error correction (VEC) model to find out if there is a structural change in the exchange rate regression over time and whether that structural change in the exchange rates affects the money supply. Regression results indicate that there is a structural break in the regression over time and that the Malawi Kwacha appreciated following the breakout of the pandemic. Additionally, the results from the Error Correction Model have indicated that the appreciation of the Malawi Kwacha, positively, affected the money supply in Malawi. As a policy implication arising from this study, policymakers are encouraged to take advantage of the prevailing donor goodwill and ensure that the various donations received are put to good use so that the Malawi Kwacha should continue being relatively strong against the United States Dollar. If this is not done, the Malawi Kwacha could, greatly, depreciate, a thing that can make the economy experience inflation thereby making people experience a lot of hardships caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Exports are a determining variable of the national product so the objective is to perform quantitative estimations, first taking them in an aggregate manner, then by group of products and finally by the main destination market, considering here the four main ones constituted by the US, Chile, Peru and Colombia. Then, the elasticities are found by co-integration models ARDL and VECM, while for the cases of absence of a common stochastic trend the short-term coefficients are obtained through VAR models. At the end, short and long-term ARDL estimates are also made with variables that present a different order of integration, according to the methodology of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001), based on the bounds testing approach. The main findings show that in the short term most coefficients are not significant. On the contrary, in the long-term foreign income and the price index are always significant except for Peru. The variables of real exchange rate and volatility are significant only in certain regressions depending on the model considered, although sometimes with unexpected signs. Finally, the regression involving Colombia is totally inconclusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a Markov switching error correction model to describe the single most important real exchange rate (Deutsche mark versus US dollar) over the flexible exchange rates period from 1973 to 2004. We show an alternative way of modelling non-linear adjustment to the purchasing power parity (PPP) besides standard threshold models. The model merges the two possible sources of non-linearity by additionally allowing the probability of a mean-reverting regime to increase with the distance from PPP. The interest rate differential as an additional determinant of real exchange rate behaviour in a Markov switching framework is introduced in the model. The study finds that the real dollar exchange rate during the post-Bretton Woods era is well described by a Markov switching error correction model with (PPP) as long-run equilibrium. There is one mean reversion regime where PPP and the interest parity condition are valid. Contrary, the second regime is characterised by persistent mean aversion, where a regime switch does not become more likely with increasing distance from PPP. The unconditional half-life of shocks is about 1.5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and Colombian financial portfolio quality institutions during the second decade of the 21st century for forecasting purposes, by means of an econometric error correction model using quarterly information for the period between 2011-I and 2020-III, both of gross domestic product and of the gross and past-due portfolio of financial institutions. The estimation of the model was executed using the econometric program Eviews 10 with the intervention of two variables. The first one consists of the seasonally natural logarithm adjusted gross domestic product [LPIBD] and the second corresponds to the portfolio quality indicator defined as the ratio of the past-due portfolio to the gross portfolio [INCALID]. The results reveal that the variables are integrated of order 1 and are co-integrated, making it possible to estimate the model with three lags, which added to the unidirectional causality in the Granger sense, allowed predicting the portfolio quality of financial institutions for the fourth quarter of 2020 and establishing the short- and long-term dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences is the property of Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences Editorial Department and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper demonstrates a significant long-run relationship between the area and production of food grain crops grown in India during the period of 1950-2018. The stability of the estimated model parameters is studied. To assess the consistency of the model parameters, the cumulative sum of recursive residuals test and the cumulative sum of recursive residual squares tests are used. Additionally, cointegration equations such as the fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and canonical cointegration regression are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a Bayesian spatio‐temporal model to study pre‐industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio‐temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric 'price ripples' that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long‐run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out‐of‐equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of National Education / Millî Eğitim Dergisi is the property of Milli Egitim Bakanligi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)