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Modal shift in freight transport entails moving freight from road to rail, inland waterways, and short sea shipping. In current Dutch and European freight transport policy, modal shift is foreseen to play an important role to mitigate external effects of freight transport. Policy efforts on modal shift are legitimate because the size of the external costs of freight transport are considerable. But can modal shift policies also be effective? In other words, can policy efforts on modal shift result in a decrease of external costs and infrastructure costs due to freight transport? Our research approach falls apart into three steps. In the first step we analyse the transported weight by road on four international freight corridors in North-western Europe that could be transported against at least 10% lower private costs by rail or inland waterways. The share of road transport (transported weight) on the corridors in total road transport in the Netherlands is about 10%. The weight of the cargo that could potentially be shifted on the basis of the transport cost criterium is called the modal shift potential (MSP). We estimate the MSP for the base year 2018 and for the future year 2050. Also in this step, we translate the MSP into changes in transport performance per transport mode. In the second step we determine differences in external costs and user dependent infrastructure costs per unit of transport performance (tonkm) between the transport modes road, rail, and inland waterways. The following external effects are included: greenhouse gas emissions (tank-to-wheel), air pollutant emissions (tank-to-wheel), noise, traffic accidents, congestion, and emissions from fuel and electricity production (well-to-tank) for freight vehicles. Including all these effects, we take a more integral approach than existing studies on the effect of modal shift on the external costs of freight transport. In the third step, we combine the results of steps 1 and 2 and calculate the changes in external costs and infrastructure costs that result from the MSP's. We find MSP's of between 35 and 55%, depending on the market segment (container, or non-container transport, and year). These percentages may seem substantial, but we emphasize that on the freight transport corridors rail and inland waterways are (very) competitive to road. Estimates for the decrease in external- and user dependent infrastructure costs if the MSP's are fully realized point to reductions of €67 million to €150 million for the Netherlands, and €87 million to €136 million abroad for 2018 (considering all countries through which the corridors pass). We emphasize that these are maximum annual savings which can only be achieved if all non-transport cost obstacles for modal shift can be removed. For 2050 estimating a maximum and minimum for the change in external- and infrastructure costs is impossible due to uncertainties in the development of the transport costs and the external costs of freight transport. Because for the year 2018 the MSP's result in a decrease of external costs and infrastructure costs from freight transport on the corridors, we conclude that in the coming years policy efforts on modal shift can be effective. We can however not conclude anything about the efficiency: are the benefits of policy efforts on modal shift larger than the costs? If that is not the case, taking modal shift measures can eventually not be justified from an economic welfare point of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study utilises the ‘natural experiment’ of COVID-19 to explore how disruption affected individuals’ perceptions and experiences of cycling, through semistructured interviews with eight cycle-shop owners and 30 residents in the Liverpool City Region, UK. It provides an account of the rapidly changing conditions that helped to support greater participation in cycling. Primarily this was due to reduced conflict between cyclists and others for road space. This was supported, though less significantly, by the provision of temporary cycling infrastructure as well as diminished competition for an individual’s time and energy from alternative leisure activities which were outlawed through COVID-19-related regulations. By disrupting car-dominated environments, the change in infrastructure and reduction in traffic flows contributed towards reducing the skills and confidence required to begin cycling. Nevertheless, as traffic rebounded to pre-pandemic volumes it was evident that the opportunity offered by disruption failed to be fully realised within the region. Despite this, the period has illustrated the potential for broader participation in cycling, though the paper finds that significant disruption to the infrastructures and traffic flows within the urban environment is required if a long-term modal shift is to occur following the surge in participation in cycling observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, the paper identifies several interventions that can be implemented to imitate the disruption observed in our study, and in doing so support a transition towards a low-carbon mobility system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active mobility projects can potentially initiate paradigm shifts in population and urban planning decision-makers. This paper aims to conduct a social cost-benefit analysis of an active mobility project in a Colombian city. The increase of physical activity, reduction of CO2 emissions, and traffic crashes were measured in an area with suitable slopes to promote bicycles for commuting. A social cost-benefit ratio of 1.14 was found, with physical activity and road safety as the most important outcomes of the active mobility infrastructure. Furthermore, a big room for the increase and promotion of cycling as a mode of transport is addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study aims to analyse the inter-rail modal shift behaviour of suburban rail passengers to examine ridership for the proposed metro extension corridor in Chennai, India. This investigation was conducted in 2019 as part of a feasibility study for the extension of the metro line spanning between Chennai Airport and Kilambakkam, a southern suburb of Chennai. The same origin–destination pair is also served by the suburban rail system. It is an extension of the operating line from Washermenpet to the airport of the Phase I metro project. For this inter-rail competition study, a sample of 272 suburban rail passengers covering work, education and other trip purposes were interviewed using a stated preference questionnaire. Six stated scenarios were considered for analyses which included travel time saving by using the metro along with the fare difference between metro and bus. The study revealed that suburban rail passengers were less concerned about travel time saving and gave priority to fare difference irrespective of trip purpose. This shows the unique metro choice behaviour of suburban rail travellers in the Indian context.

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Current urban mobility systems in Europe, characterized by high car mobility shares, have negative environmental and health impacts but struggle to mitigate these for fear of sacrificing accessibility. Ironically, before the car mobility transition (in the 1950s and 1960s in Western countries and the 1990s in Eastern Europe), most cities were accessible by walking, cycling, public transport, and by the few cars there were. Through a longitudinal case study of a medium-sized urban area in Clermont-Ferrand, France (1950–2022), this paper explores the potential to 'de-transition', i.e., to reverse the urban transition process towards 'accessible, low-car cities' by reshaping infrastructures to constrain car use whilst accommodating walking, cycling, and public transport. We answer the following questions: To what extent can cities reverse the urban car mobility transition? How could such a process be further encouraged? Our analysis adopts a social practices perspective and uses a mixed-methods approach by combining semi-structured interviews, a survey, and a document analysis. On the one hand, our findings highlight the difficulty of an urban modality shift to car alternatives: (1) the limited reach of public transformation networks (in Clermont-Ferrand, the tramline); (2) the fact that many feel unsafe or assume they need excellent health conditions to cycle, which is associated with leisure and sports; and (3) strong convictions concerning the usefulness of vehicle ownership, which is believed to maximise comfort. On the other hand, based on a historic analysis, we offer practical recommendations to de-transition to low-car urban areas: (1) the creation of an extensive regional tramway network; (2) the development of a full cycling network; and (3) the promotion of an extensive car-free city centre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This study uses a unique dataset on the cost of motoring in Germany to analyse cost competitiveness of emerging mobility-on-demand (MOD) services. Previous studies have focused on comparing current and projected MOD prices with the average cost of private motoring. This study quantifies which proportion of private car travel would actually turn out to be costlier than MOD given that MOD costs drop below certain levels relative to the cost of private motoring. In this context, not the average but the distribution of the costs of motoring are the key issue. These costs are strongly skewed across the cars in private households when including new and old vehicles: a large proportion of private car kilometres are driven at relatively low cost. The study uses simplified scenario settings with MOD price levels ranging from 0.1 €/km to 1.5 €/km to make predictions of hypothetical modal shifts under the assumption that car user switch to the most economic mode of travel. These modal shifts serve as an indicator of MOD cost competitiveness. The results indicate that MOD prices would have to drop to 0.5 €/km or lower to have a notable impact on use of the private car if cost was the key mode choice criterion. Only if MOD prices drop down to a level of about 0.3 €/km—quite possibly a lower boundary for automated MOD—MOD-enabled mobility packages would be the less costly alternative to the private car for a substantial proportion of mileage. However, even at that MOD price level, the private car would still be the most economic option for the majority of today's car user kilometres. Our findings illustrate that the skewed distribution of the cost of owning and running private cars—where many of those who drive much drive inexpensively—substantially dampens the disruptive potential of MOD. While we use data from Germany to illustrate this, many of our findings are more widely applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth of the car fleet has caused many problems, such as environmental problems, uncontrolled energy consumption, and traffic congestion. To resolve the issues caused by transport-related activities, transportation planners should implement policies that reduce car use and move forward to sustainable transportation. The prerequisite of the efficiency of the policies that reduce car use is the acceptance of them by the entire community members. Previously a few studies have tested individuals’ environmental attitudes using the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory. This research aims to analyze and examine car use reduction policy using a comprehensive VBN and Norm-Activation-model (NAM) theories to consider more variables and provide a model with more analytical capability. To address this issue, 500 questionnaires were filled by travelers’ in Tehran, Iran, in the restricted traffic area to describe their behavior. The result shows that the biospheric value significantly affects car use reduction policy, associated with considerable environmental concerns. Besides, it was found that a high ascription of responsibility (A.R.) appeared as the strongest predictor of the policy. The findings have represented initial support for the VBN theory and revealed that the theory could explain the car use reduction policy’s Intention, according to Tehran’s respondents’ environmental behavior. This study’s findings can assist policymakers in adopting appropriate policies to reduce car use based on environmental advantages and could target biospheric values and ascription of responsibilities.

Despite spending billions of dollars on urban transport infrastructure, Malaysia has a poor reputation for its public transit service. Consequently, the majority of urban residents continue to rely on their cars. Hence, this paper aims to understand commuters’ intention to switch from private vehicles to public transit and spread word-of-mouth (WOM) about its services and assess the roles of satisfaction and service quality as antecedents. A cross-sectional survey of 421 rail and bus passengers was undertaken in Kuala Lumpur's urban and sub-urban areas, and the data was analyzed using SmartPLS. According to the data, empathy is the strongest predictor of satisfaction with transit services. Except for reliability, the service quality characteristics influence satisfaction and yield positive indirect effects on both switching intention and WOM. Transit operators and planners should take into account that providing a pleasant and hassle-free riding experience has a substantial impact on commuter satisfaction and long-term commitment. This study contributed to the body of knowledge by exploring the intervention role of satisfaction in the relationship between service quality and switching intention, as well as WOM.

The carbon footprint of academia has become a prominent concern and a burgeoning research area, with a notable focus on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from research-related travels. Mitigation strategies often promote alternatives, such as developing virtual communication or adopting sustainable transportation modes for short distances. While more ambitious strategies involving the transformation of research practices are increasingly discussed, these mitigation solutions are rarely subjected to rigorous quantitative assessments or meaningful comparisons. This study analyzes a unique database of about 130 000 travel segments by car, train and plane in 159 research entities across a wide array of disciplines in France. We investigate the patterns and associated carbon footprint of these research travels and explore a diversity of mitigation options. Our analysis shows that air travel overwhelmingly outweighs the carbon footprint of research travel, representing more than 96% of GHG emissions. Intercontinental flights are infrequent (less than 10% of all plane trips) but dominate GHG travel emissions, accounting for over 64% of total emissions. In contrast, domestic and continental flights are the most common but their mitigation potential by modal shift to train is limited (e.g. less than 15% for trips under 1000 km). Similar reductions can be achieved by targeting a small subset of travels, for example by modulating the frequency of conference attendance. The greatest and possibly most robust mitigation potential lies in combining modal shift with moderating air mileage (e.g. reducing travelled distance or number of flights). Strategies focusing on electrification or modal shifts for cars, proposed in official guidelines, are found to have negligible impact. In the absence of low-carbon alternatives for long-haul flights, we contend that only comprehensive strategies and policies which include moderating air travel distance or frequency can achieve a robust significant reduction in the GHG emissions from academic travel.

Abstract Background A high proportion of adolescents worldwide are not doing enough physical activity for health benefits. Replacing short motorised trips with walking or cycling has the potential to increase physical activity at the population level. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of short distance motorised trips that could be replaced with walking or cycling, and the potential physical activity gains by sociodemographic and trip characteristics. Methods Data were from a subsample of the NEighbourhood Activity in Youth (NEArbY) study conducted among adolescents in Melbourne. A total of 217 adolescents with at least one motorised trip completed a survey and wore a Global Positioning Systems (GPS) device for eight consecutive days. Classification of travel modes were based on speed. GPS data points were geocoded in ArcGIS. Motorised trips within walkable (1.3 km) and cyclable (4.2 km) distances were identified (threshold based on 80th percentile of walking and cycling trip distances among Victorian adolescents), and the additional physical activity minutes that could be accrued by replacing walkable or cyclable motorised trip to active trips were quantified. Multilevel linear regression was used to assess differences in physical activity minutes gain by sociodemographic and trip characteristics. Results A total of 4,116 motorised trips were made. Of these, 17% were walkable and 61% were cyclable. Replacing motorised trips by walking and cycling resulted in estimated gains of six minutes and 15 min of physical activity per day, respectively. Conclusion The sizable proportion of replaceable trips and potential physical activity gains from this shift calls for attention to improve safe and connected infrastructure to support active travel.

Governments advocate for a modal shift from motorized transport modes to active modes. Various political approaches can be adopted to affect travel behavior and patterns. However, interventions spread across the entire population offer limited opportunities to achieve behavioral change. Furthermore, attitude has been shown to cut across demographic characteristics and strongly influence the conducted travel behavior. Therefore, a latent class analysis including significant sociodemographic variables and value-based attitudes concerning factors influencing transport, settlement, and additional priorities was performed. The study objectively identified five classes of Danish commuters with the same preconditions in terms of commuting distance but with clear differences in attitude and transport modes. Each latent class represents a unique combination of characteristics, which indicates the need to design target group-specific interventions to optimize the chances of influencing travel behavior. In particular, a group of malcontented motorists demonstrating a high intention to change exhibit negative feelings toward car travel and thus appear to act in contravention of their attitudes. In contrast, a class of immovable motorists was found, a class of beneficial commuters and finally two cycling dominated classes of passionate cyclists and environmentalist cyclists. Finally, this study has emphasized that similar attitudes can lead to dissimilar behaviors and that the same behavior can be exhibited for various reasons. We deduced how transport mode choice is influenced by various factors, with habit as one of the strongest, as those with strong habits seem disinclined to information about alternatives and call for “harder” policy interventions. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions tailored to specific commuter groups to encourage modal shifts towards sustainable transportation.

We propose a mathematical programming model aimed to design a bicycle network which maximizes modal shift from a given potential demand. Urban planners face the problem of promoting sustainable mobility practices, including the use of bicycle for daily trips. One of the main factors which influence modal shift toward the bicycle is the existence of specialized infrastructure, which includes the network, i.e., a set of dedicated and interconnected lanes which can be used in combination with the existing street network for traveling from different origins to different destinations. The bicycle network can be built over different street sections using different infrastructure technologies, e.g., quality of pavement, which impact on the perceived travel cost and have different construction cost. In this context, the better is the network built from the point of view of travel cost, the more people currently using a different transport mode are willing to shift toward the bicycle mode. Our proposed model takes a street network, both travel and construction costs on every segment, an origin-destination matrix of potential bicycle trips and a given construction budget, and determines the segments where bicycle lanes should be built and the technology of infrastructure on each segment, so as to maximize the modal shift from the potential demand to the bicycle mode. The methodology is applied to a real case related to the city of Montevideo, Uruguay, for which we conduct sensitivity analysis and comparison with the current system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to analyse the inter-rail modal shift behaviour of suburban rail passengers to examine ridership for the proposed metro extension corridor in Chennai, India. This investigation was conducted in 2019 as part of a feasibility study for the extension of the metro line spanning between Chennai Airport and Kilambakkam, a southern suburb of Chennai. The same origin–destination pair is also served by the suburban rail system. It is an extension of the operating line from Washermenpet to the airport of the Phase I metro project. For this inter-rail competition study, a sample of 272 suburban rail passengers covering work, education and other trip purposes were interviewed using a stated preference questionnaire. Six stated scenarios were considered for analyses which included travel time saving by using the metro along with the fare difference between metro and bus. The study revealed that suburban rail passengers were less concerned about travel time saving and gave priority to fare difference irrespective of trip purpose. This shows the unique metro choice behaviour of suburban rail travellers in the Indian context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the wider effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health is needed to respond sufficiently to the impacts and facilitate recovery. We studied the secondary health impacts of COVID-19 through the changes in transportation using a ripple effect mode. Three ripples are defined to reflect the impacts of COVID-19 on (1) transportation and the systems behind it, (2) transportation-related health risk factors, and (3) public health. COVID-19 impacts on transportation are synthesized through six areas: transportation demand, transportation mode, traffic safety, land use and built environment, transportation jobs, and transportation equity. These changes are further associated with decreased transportation-related air pollution, greenhouse gases, noise, heat, and stress. Higher rates of road casualties were observed in the area of COVID-19. Social exclusion and limitations in accessibility to healthcare and healthy food were identified as negative consequences of changes in transportation. There are uncertainties in the rate of active transportation (i.e., walking and cycling) and related crashes that require further investigation. The findings of this study uncover the complex and relatively unknown impacts of COVID-19 on public health through changes in transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess changes in mobility and modal shift caused by COVID-19 travel restrictions among the residents of Gdańsk Bay Metropolis (Poland). Measurement’s moments were assumed in periods differing in the level of restrictions. The computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) was carried out in November and December 2020. The results did not confirm the expected modal shift. However, significant changes in the number of trips between periods were observed. Restrictions in the first period of the pandemic resulted in a greater decrease in mobility than the restrictions at the end of the year. Moreover, significant associations were found between transport behaviour and place of residence. Nevertheless, possible negative changes in the modal split after the pandemic ends should be counteracted by improving the quality of public transport services. As the most important attributes of public transport attracting passengers after the pandemic respondents recognized: high frequency of vehicles, low cost of travel, not overcrowded vehicles. However, some residents declared they will not use public transport regardless of service improvements. Consequently, to meet the objectives of sustainable mobility policy, it can be necessary to increase the share in the modal split of other sustainable modes of travel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has long been evidence of the benefit of a modal shift toward cycling can bring to meeting several pressing urban challenges including ill-health, climate change, and poor air quality. In the wake of COVID-19, policy-makers have identified a modal shift toward cycling as part of the solution to mobility challenges introduced by social distancing measures. However, beyond exemplar areas, cycling has been largely characterized by a stubbornly-low modal share. In this paper, we use the 'ordinary city' – in cycling terms – of Liverpool as a case study to understand this. We apply practice theory in doing so, finding the provision of materials for cycling is the key factor in supporting a modal shift. Not only do they provide the means to support the practice of cycling in the city, but they also have a key role in shaping individuals perceptions of, and the skills required to cycle. We then reflect upon the utility of practice theory in understanding the patterns of everyday life, finding it was particularly well suited in understanding the interactions between different factors which influence modal choice. We go on to identify practical challenges in its application within our analysis raising questions around an inconsistent analysis of influential factors including 'driver behavior' and 'political commitment'. We suggest how this might be overcome, through the isolation of such factors within a category of 'action of others', this we argue means the findings in this paper have broad relevance to researchers and policy-makers alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing population and car dependency in developing countries have led to congestion that adversely affects the environment, travel time, trip cost, accidents, and public transportation reliability. Through implementation of travel demand management (TDM) policies, governments and policymakers aim to reduce private vehicle dependency and encourage people to use public transportation. Light rail transit is an important part of an attractive public transport. Rail transportation systems, though offer many potential benefits, are a major financial challenge for governments because of the high capital and operation costs. Therefore, passenger behavior must be determined before a new system is introduced. Using a stated preference (SP) questionnaire, private car users' behavior in Tehran's universities has been investigated to determine the explanatory factors affecting the modal shift to urban light rail transit (LRT). A binary logit model estimation results showed that men are less likely than women to shift toward LRT because they rely more on their private cars. It was the provision of free on-street parking at destinations and the frequency of using private cars on a weekly basis that had the most negative effect on LRT modal shift, demonstrating the critical role that implementation of TDM policies could play. Moreover, reduction in travel time by LRT has the most positive impact on modal shift toward LRT among private car users. As an interesting finding, marginal effect values indicate that a 10% reduction in travel time (0.32) has a greater impact than the possibility of sitting 50% of the travel time (0.25) on the likelihood of modal shift to LRT. Furthermore, the probability of modal shift to LRT will be reduced by 0.12 units for each unit increase in car ownership. In addition, owning a driver's license was also negatively correlated with LRT modal shift and decreased the likelihood by 0.27. This research will facilitate the decision-making and planning for future transportation systems to increase LRT's utility for potential users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Moreover, certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of these trends on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their implementation in transport sector modeling thus far. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Our analysis of the related effects reveals their importance to the transportation sector of the future. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification. However, other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. The coupling of the different types of models and collaboration among researchers from the different fields is recommended for filling this gap.

Public transport (PT) systems face the challenge of retaining users and preventing a shift towards individual transport modes. While satisfaction is recognized as a key factor in user loyalty, there is a need to understand the specific PT attributes that contribute to passenger satisfaction and foster loyalty. This study aims to assess the impact of PT service attributes on user loyalty, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Data from an online survey conducted in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, a country with high car dependency, were analysed using logistic regression models. The findings highlight the importance of attributes such as reliable service, in-vehicle travel time, number of transfers, and feeling safe, while also identifying differences in attribute importance between bus and train loyalty. The study provides valuable insights for transport agencies and policymakers to enhance user loyalty and develop effective ridership retention strategies. These findings are particularly relevant in the post-pandemic scenario and can contribute to addressing car dependency challenges in diverse metropolitan areas. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to improve PT services based on the identified attributes.

The issue of shifting loads from road to rail is always vivid when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions from transport. Practically not every load transported by road vehicles over a long distance can be transferred to rail. Additionally, the potential of the railway lines is limited, which means that the network is not able to accept huge amounts of loads from road transport. In the article, attention was paid to the typology of cargo susceptible to changing the means of transport. The article discusses the factors influencing the real possibility of CO2 reduction by changing the mode of transport. The analysis and calculation example of the selected region in Poland is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., COVID-19 impact, Entities response , Health risk , Life related activities comfort and Subjective well-being), two COVID-19 related attributes (i.e. , new cases and deaths), two trip attributes (i.e., cost savings and time), and six socio-demographic attributes (i.e. , age, civil status, household characteristics, income level , occupation and gender) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern European countries such as Portugal still have a low bicycle share (up to 1%). Therefore, it is fundamental to research the potential benefits and drawbacks of modal shifts. This work analyses the implementation of a bike-sharing system (BSS) and its expected implications in emission reductions from road traffic for the case study of Coimbra city, Portugal. Although many different pollutants result from road traffic, we focused on small Particulate Matter (PM2.5) due to its harmful effects on human health. The methodology considers an integrated set of models for a) estimation of potential demand for the use of bike-sharing; b) mobility studies for the analysis of travel behavior; c) optimization modeling for the location of the bike-sharing stations and d) traffic emission modeling, to estimate the reduction of emissions due to bike-sharing modal shift. We considered two different potential scenarios for the location of bike stations. A modal share shift from car use toward bicycle in each is assumed, and the consequent traffic reduction and the associated emissions reduction are analyzed. The results show a non-homogeneous relation between traffic reduction and emission reduction across the urban space, achieving 12.5% of daily PM2.5 emissions in some urban roads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inland container shipping is confronted with significant challenges, both on the demand and supply side. In line with the 2019 Green Deal's ambitious goals and 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the European Commission presented an 'Inland Waterway Transport Action plan 2021-2027' with the target of shifting more freight across inland waterways. However, the COVID-19 pandemic together with the low water level raise interest in how these could impact the throughput for container transport on the inland waterways. In this research, the scope is on the container throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine. This study first identifies the market drivers for containerized inland navigation in the medium run and then selects the SARIMAX method to analyse Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) volumes. The model application shows that the throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine is impacted on by periods of low water and the weakening of the economy caused by COVID-19. The results of the study suggest that if the IWT container market is impacted by the identified factors, the throughput for containerized IWT is expected to decline by 8.9% in 2023 relative to the volumes in 2020. The research might act as a decision support tool for analysis, management and planning for policymakers and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2002, the Turkish government has increased its interest in rail transport after neglecting it for more than half a century. The government invested significant sums in the high-speed network and allocated substantial funds for the modernization of conventional rail infrastructure, the expansion of the network, and the construction of logistics centers. In addition, in 2013, the government restructured the rail market and opened it to competition. This paper examines recent rail policy in terms of modal shift to determine whether there is a radical shift in national transportation policy, which has been dominated by road programs. Despite significant steps to help rail achieve a breakthrough, our analysis does not show a strong shift in investment priorities that would lead to modal shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted a strategy to reduce emissions from international shipping that sets very ambitious targets. The first set of actions, so-called short-term measures, are expected to be implemented by 2023 and result in a reduction of emission intensity by at least 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels. Compliance may be achieved through a reduction in sailing speeds, but certain countries have raised concerns on the ramifications of longer transit times on their exports, particularly for perishable products. In this paper, we present a methodology to assess the impacts of various short-term measures on perishable products. We use an extension of a nested modal split model to examine shifts towards other modes of transport. We demonstrate our methodology with a transpacific case study carrying perishable products from South America to China. We compare the short-term measures currently under discussion, in one of the first academic studies to explore these issues. These include a speed limit approach, a power limit, and a goal-based measure. Our results show that a power limit or a goal-based measure would offer some advantages to liner shipping operators using more efficient vessels, unlike a speed limit. Using 2008 as the benchmark year has resulted in small speed reductions required by the liner shipping sector to reach its targets. For perishable cargoes, small speed reductions can be tolerated by the shippers without significant modal shift. Choosing the right short-term strategy is of utmost importance to promote clean shipping practices in the following years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A high proportion of adolescents worldwide are not doing enough physical activity for health benefits. Replacing short motorised trips with walking or cycling has the potential to increase physical activity at the population level. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of short distance motorised trips that could be replaced with walking or cycling, and the potential physical activity gains by sociodemographic and trip characteristics.Methods: Data were from a subsample of the NEighbourhood Activity in Youth (NEArbY) study conducted among adolescents in Melbourne. A total of 217 adolescents with at least one motorised trip completed a survey and wore a Global Positioning Systems (GPS) device for eight consecutive days. Classification of travel modes were based on speed. GPS data points were geocoded in ArcGIS. Motorised trips within walkable (1.3 km) and cyclable (4.2 km) distances were identified (threshold based on 80th percentile of walking and cycling trip distances among Victorian adolescents), and the additional physical activity minutes that could be accrued by replacing walkable or cyclable motorised trip to active trips were quantified. Multilevel linear regression was used to assess differences in physical activity minutes gain by sociodemographic and trip characteristics.Results: A total of 4,116 motorised trips were made. Of these, 17% were walkable and 61% were cyclable. Replacing motorised trips by walking and cycling resulted in estimated gains of six minutes and 15 min of physical activity per day, respectively.Conclusion: The sizable proportion of replaceable trips and potential physical activity gains from this shift calls for attention to improve safe and connected infrastructure to support active travel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continued urbanization continues to pose one of the greatest challenges to the environmental, economic and social sustainability of society. The modal split between transport modes has remained relatively unchanged in recent decades. This suggests that the level of private car use will lead to even more congestion in urban areas. Therefore, a modal shift from private to public transport should be further encouraged. One of the decisive quality characteristics for preferring public transport over private car use, such as passenger railway transportation, is the level of comfort. However, one of the main challenges for railway operators is the change in demand for capacity during peak hours and the demand for comfort during off-peak hours. The purpose of this study is to investigate the applicability of adaptable design in rolling stock interior to facilitate adaptations using case study research. The proposed design concept was evaluated and compared with current coach interior configurations using grey relational analysis. The case results showed that the design concept was adaptive by providing more options to meet the different needs of comfort and capacity. In addition, three new guidelines were identified that can generally serve as functional guidelines in the development of more adaptable assets in use to further encourage a modal shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite high ambitions, policies for a modal shift in Europe have largely been unsuccessful. Part of the explanation relates to the inelasticity of freight transport demand. Understanding the demand elasticity of freight transport is important to design and appraise policies for external cost reductions in the transport sector. There have been many studies focused on estimating the elasticity of demand for short-sea shipping, a mode which policy makers have often aimed to strengthen to facilitate a modal shift from road freight. The objective of this review is to build upon the available literature by presenting and comparing estimated elasticities and to demonstrate the state of evidence through the application of two methodological approaches. Our review shows that there is a surprising degree of variation in elasticity estimates, part of which can likely be explained by differing methodological approaches. Applying a deterministic cost-minimising freight transport model and a stochastic multinomial logit approach based on responses from the Swedish Cargo Flow Survey, we demonstrate the inelasticity of Swedish maritime freight flows and provide suggestions for future research and policy discussions. For future studies of maritime transport demand elasticities to arrive at reliable and policy-relevant results, we highlight the need for combined and pluralistic methodological approaches and an increased use of real-world data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing direct carbon emissions in the transport sector is crucial for carbon neutrality. It is a considerable challenge to achieve substantial CO2 emissions reductions while satisfying rapidly growing traffic demands. Previous studies cannot be applied directly in long-term planning for the transport sector with rapid demand growth. To bridge this gap, a multi-regional model is proposed in this paper to quantify the optimal decarbonisation path for the transport sector in order to save costs. Considering modal shift and infrastructure construction, this model regards the transport sector as a whole and China is taken as a case study. The results show that electricity and hydrogen will be the major fuels of the transport sector in the future, accounting for 45 percent and 25 percent of fuel demands in 2060. This means that the electricity used by the transport sector accounts for 10 percent of the electricity consumed by the whole of society. The results reflect that freight transport has reached a CO2 emissions peak, while passenger transport will reach its own CO2 emissions peak around 2041. Giving priority to decarbonisation in freight transport can save 5 percent of the transition cost. The results also suggest that modal shift can save at most 7 percent of the transition cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the competitiveness of Brazilian maritime container cabotage within a multimodal transportation super network, employing an adapted All Pairs Shortest Path (APSP) algorithm to solve the All Pairs Minimum Cost Path problem. The research analyzes cost structures, environmental impacts, and operational efficiencies across 637 cities, 18 container terminals, 8 barge terminals, and 301 maritime routes. Key metrics, including freight rates, in-transit inventory costs, and CO 2 equivalent emissions, are incorporated into the network's impedance values, enabling a comprehensive comparison between maritime cabotage and road transportations modes. Results indicate that maritime cabotage holds a significant cost advantage over road transportation mode for long-haul routes, particularly when distances exceed 1.800 km. Additionally, maritime cabotage offers substantial environmental benefits, with CO 2 equivalent emission reductions of up to 41,3 %, depending on the route and cabotage shipping company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in improving energy consumption efficiency and reducing the emission level in the urban transport sector. ICT-based mobility services like ridesourcing provide smart tools and algorithms for matching travel demand and supply and more convenient door to door services. However, there is a concern that the convenience and competitive service fares of these new mobility modes encourage people to make more car travel or shift from more sustainable mobility modes like public transport to car travels. Therefore, it is necessary to study the frequency use and modal shift to this new mobility mode, particularly in the cities (like Cairo), where the ICT-based mobility services contain more ridesourcing of fossil fuel cars than other modes like online bikes/scooter sharing. A survey was conducted in Cairo, and logit models were developed to analyze the associations of socioeconomic, travel behavior variables with the frequency use and modal shift to ridesourcing. The results of ordinal logistic regression indicate that people who live near a metro station, with higher income, and with more non-work trips per week are more likely to be high-frequent users of ridesourcing. Moreover, women are more likely to use ridesourcing frequently than men in Cairo. The findings indicate that the most replaced mode by ridesourcing is traditional taxis (by 33 %), and the second and third shifted modes are private cars and public transport by 30% and 24 %, respectively. The results of multinomial logistic regression show that the socioeconomic parameters have significant associations with the probability of modal shift from public transport, taxis, and private cars to ridesourcing services.

Transportation demand management policies are among the most important ways to reduce traffic congestion in cities and make transport infrastructures more efficient. One of the important policies in this field is congestion pricing that has been considered by various researchers to estimate and predict its effects including modal shift. In the present study, the effects of a new pricing policy on the traffic area of Tehran city, namely the acquisition of hourly basis tolls from personal vehicles entering this area, are studied. In this regard, the stated preference information was received through in-person interviews from 1588 users of this city-wide area who use personal vehicles for traffic in the area. In order to model their behavior in the face of the new pricing policy (hourly basis), multiple logit model was used. According to the results of the calibrated models, following the implementation of the 2000-Tomans hourly scenario, about 22% of the people entering the area by personal vehicles are going to shift their traveling mode to other modes including public (metro / bus), taxi, snap, and motorcycle. Of this, about 12% of people prefer the public transportation and will increase the share of this mode on daily trips. The Traffic Estimator's Elasticity Analysis showed that with a 1% increase in the average cost of the traffic plan in the utility function of the alternatives to change the way of travelling and other changes (cancellation of travel, change of destination to outside the range, and travel deferring to the weekend), the probability of choosing these alternatives increases by 0.77% and 0.61%, respectively. Furthermore, based on the analysis of the marginal effects of the traffic plan price variable, with the increase of 1,000 Tomans to the average cost of the traffic plan in the utility function of alternatives to change the way of travel and other changes, the probability of choosing these alternatives increases by 0.013 and 0.005, respectively.