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The paper presents the methodological framework for the analysis of the Drina River basin water resources system under different development and climate scenarios. Within this methodological framework, a water management model of the Drina River basin is developed using the WEAP modelling software. The model describes the Drina River basin as a complex water resources system, which includes the natural water balance components and water demand by the users in the basin (municipal, industrial and agricultural water supply, reservoirs and hydropower facilities). Data on the natural hydrologic input is provided from a separate hydrologic model. The water management model serves as a tool for simulating water balance in the basin and for evaluating the system performance by analysing the effects of different planned facilities under the impact of climate change. Several different development options in terms of new hydropower facilities are considered, as well as two climate change scenarios. The paper describes the development and the application of the Drina River basin water management model, while the results are evaluated by analysing the reliability of water supply, hydroenergy production and reliability of the environmental flow requirements. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the abilities and limitations of modelling the water resources systems using the WEAP tool. U radu je prikazan metodološki okvir za analizu rada vodoprivrednog sistema sliva reke Drine pod pretpostavkom različitih razvojnih i klimatskih scenarija. U okviru ovog metodološkog okvira razvijen je vodoprivredni model sliva Drine korišćenjem softvera WEAP. Model opisuje sliv Drine kao složeni vodoprivredni sistem, u koji su uključeni prirodni hidrološki bilans i potrebe korisnika voda na slivu (snabdevanje stanovništva, industrije i poljoprivrede vodom, akumulacije i hidro-energetske objekte). Podaci o prirodnim protocima na slivu obezbeđuju se iz odvojenog hidrološkog modela. Vodoprivredni model služi kao alat za simulaciju vodoprivrednog bilansa na slivu i vrednovanje sistema, tj. sagledavanje efekata različitih planiranih objekata u uslovima klimatskih promena. Razmatrano je više razvojnih scenarija sa gledišta uključivanja novih hidro-energetskih objekata, kao i dva klimatska scenarija. Rad opisuje razvoj i primenu vodoprivrednog modela Drine, a rezultati se analiziraju kroz obezbeđenost isporuke vode korisnicima, proizvodnju električne energije i obezbeđenost zahtevanih minimalnih ekoloških protoka. Cilj rada je da demonstrira mogućnosti i ograničenja modeliranja vodoprivrednih sistema sa softverom WEAP.

This is the introductory lecture to a Water Resource Systems and Management class from Spring 2017 at the University of Colorado Boulder, by Joseph Kasprzyk. Learning goals include (i) defining integrated water resources management, (ii) identifying Colorado water management issues (ii) identifying how RiverWare simulation and optimization can be used to develop water plans (iii) use the HyMod model to perform rainfall-runoff modeling (iv) generating random parameter samples and understanding how parameter uncertainty affects model results.

Hydrol. Sci. J.-J. Sci. Hydrol.ISI Document Delivery No.: EB2CDTimes Cited: 0Cited Reference Count: 153Ceola, Serena Montanari, Alberto Krueger, Tobias Dyer, Fiona Kreibich, Heidi Westerberg, Ida Carr, Gemma Cudennec, Christophe Elshorbagy, Amin Savenije, Hubert Van der Zaag, Pieter Rosbjerg, Dan Aksoy, Hafzullah Viola, Francesco Petrucci, Guido MacLeod, Kit Croke, Barry Ganora, Daniele Hermans, Leon Polo, Maria J. Xu, Zongxue Borga, Marco Helmschrot, Jorg Toth, Elena Ranzi, Roberto Castellarin, Attilio Hurford, Anthony Brilly, Mitija Viglione, Alberto Bloeschl, Guenter Sivapalan, Murugesu Domeneghetti, Alessio Marinelli, Alberto Di Baldassarre, GiulianoPeople Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union [329762]; IRI THESys; German Excellence Initiative; EU [603587]IW acknowledges the support of the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union's 7th Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013/(grant agreement no. 329762). TK is funded, through IRI THESys, by the German Excellence Initiative. SC, AM, AC, and ET acknowledge financial support from the EU funded project SWITCHON (603587).Taylor & francis ltdAbingdon; We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

From the standpoint of reliability - a key indicator of the probabilistic effectiveness of systems - water resources systems (WRS) belong to the class of the most sensitive system with multiple categories of reliability. This reliability must be analyzed and verified during the planning and the operation of the system. However, some of these important reliability analyzes are not carried out promptly and comprehensively. As a consequence some incidental events occur (floods, surveyor events in the field of water quality, etc.) and they are usually treated as 'force majeure'. That approach does not draw conclusions for the necessary increase in the corresponding category of reliability. The aim of this article is to systematize the categories of reliability which must be analyzed, verified and keep up to date while using WRS. Key categories of reliability discussed here are: • reliability of water supply, • reliability in terms of failures, • operational readiness of the system, • reliability of constructiona and hydraulic structures, • hydrological system reliability, • reliability of the people who manage the systems, • suitability of the system for maintenance, • reliability of the system for monitoring facilities, • reliability from the standpoint of security in the WRS environment. The article discusses key aspects of those categories of reliability, the possibility of their incorporation in the design solutions - from the choice of system configuration and dimensioning of facilities, selection of related equipment, later updated to the reliability of the system during operation. These checks are necessary (but often ignored), because the reliability is dynamic category, which changes over time, and must be checked and increased to the necessary level. Sa stanovišta pouzdanosti - ključnog pokazatelja probabilističke efektivnosti sistema - vodoprivredni sistemi (VS) spadaju u klasu najzahtevnijih sistema, sa brojnim kategorijama pouzdanosti koje treba analizirati i verifikovati tokom projektovanja, ali koje treba ažurno pratiti i tokom eksploatacije sistema. Pri planiranju, a naročito pri eksploataciji sistema neke od tih važnih provera pouzdanosti ne obavljaju se ažurno i celovito, zbog čega i nastupaju neki incidentni događaji (poplave, havarijski događaji na planu kvaliteta voda, itd.) koji se, najčešće, podvedu pod 'višu silu'. A to je loše, jer se ne izvuku zaključci za neophodna povećanja odgovarajuće kategorije pouzdanosti. Cilj članka je da sistematizuju kategorije pouzdanosti koje se moraju analizirati, verifikovati i ažurno pratiti tokom korišćenja VS. Ključne kategorije pouzdanosti koje se ovde razmatraju su: • obezbeđenost isporuke vode potrošačima, • pouzdanost objekata i sistema, • operativna gotovost sistema, • konstrukcijska i hidraulička sigurnost objekata / sistema, • hidrološka pouzdanost sistema, • pouzdanost ljudi koji upravljaju sistemima, • pogodnost sistema sa stanovišta tekućeg i investicionog održavanja, • pouzdanost sistema za osmatranje i praćenje objekata, • pouzdanost sa gledišta bezbednosti iz okruženja i prema okruženju VS. U članku se razmatraju ključni aspekti navedenih kategorija pouzdanosti, mogućnosti njihovog ugrađivanja u projektna rešenja - od izbora konfiguracija sistema i dimenzionisanja objekata, izbora prateće opreme od koje zavisi pouzdanost VS, do kasnijih ažurnih provera pouzdanosti tokom eksploatacije sistema. Te provere su neophodne (a često se prenebregavaju), jer je pouzdanost vodoprivrednih sistema dinamička kategorija, koja se menja tokom vremena, pa se mora proveravati i dovoditi na neophodan nivo.

[EN] Water planning and the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) represent the best way to help decision makers to identify and choose the most adequate alternatives among other possible ones. The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-W) is displayed as a tool for the building of water balances in a river basin, providing a standard approach to achieve comparability of the results between different territories. The target of this paper is to present the building up of a tool that enables the combined use of hydrological models and water resources models to fill in the SEEA-W tables. At every step of the modelling chain, we are capable to build the asset accounts and the physical water supply and use tables according to SEEA-W approach along with an estimation of the water services costs. The case study is the Jucar River Basin District (RBD), located in the eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula in Spain which as in other many Mediterranean basins is currently water-stressed. To guide this work we have used PATRICAL model in combination with AQUATOOL Decision Support System (DSS). The results indicate that for the average year the total use of water in the district amounts to 15,143 hm3/year, being the Total Water Renewable Water Resources 3909 hm3/year. On the other hand, the water service costs in Jucar RBD amounts to 1634 million per year at constant 2012 prices. It is noteworthy that 9% of these costs correspond to non-conventional resources, such as desalinated water, reused water and water transferred from other regions., The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, suggestions and positive feedback. All remaining errors, however, are solely the responsibility of the authors. We would also like to express our gratitude to the Jucar River Basin Authority – Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment) for providing data to develop this study. The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the NUTEGES project (CGL2012-34978). We also value the support provided by the European Community's Seventh Framework Program in financing the projects ENHANCE (FP7-ENV2012, 308438) and IMPREX (H2020-WATER-2014-2015, 641811).

The goal of this course is to introduce participants to general concepts of systems analysis and systems engineering as they apply to the planning, design and operation of water resources systems. The course focuses on the use of computer-based mathematical models for analyzing water resources systems. Students are exposed to a variety of example applications of systems analysis to water resources problems. Course taught at Colorado State University.

Undergraduate course in environmental systems at University of Illinois, Urbana in Fall 2012.

A new methodology for water resources systems reliability evaluation is presented. The proposed methodology considers both: mechanical reliability (probability of pipe failure) and reliability of hydraulic parameters in the nodes and links (pressure, velocity). On the basis of this methodology the model NETREL was developed. This model is useful for determining reliability of systems with different configurations and complexity. Model was analyzed on a water supply system. U radu je prikazan nov pristup pri određivanju pouzdanosti složenih vodoprivrednih sistema pod pritiskom. Ovaj pristup podrazumeva da se pored pouzdanosti mehaničkih karakteristika elemenata, uzima u obzir i pouzdanost zadovoljavanja hidrauličkih parametara sistema. Metodologija je iskorišćena za formiranje modela NETREL, koji omogućava određivanje pouzdanosti sistema različitih konfiguracija i nivoa složenosti, sa različitim ograničenjima u pogledu hidrauličkih parametara sistema i njihovih vrednosti. Model je analiziran na primeru jednog vodovodnog sistema.

U radu je prikazan nov pristup pri određivanju pouzdanosti složenih vodoprivrednih sistema pod pritiskom. Ovaj pristup podrazumeva da se pored pouzdanosti mehaničkih karakteristika elemenata, uzima u obzir i pouzdanost zadovoljavanja hidrauličkih parametara sistema. Metodologija je iskorišćena za formiranje modela NETREL, koji omogućava određivanje pouzdanosti sistema različitih konfiguracija i nivoa složenosti, sa različitim ograničenjima u pogledu hidrauličkih parametara sistema i njihovih vrednosti. Model je analiziran na primeru jednog vodovodnog sistema. New methodology for water resources systems reliability evaluation is presented. Proposed methodology considers both: mechanical reliability (probability of pipe failure) and reliability of hydraulic parameters in nodes and links (pressure, velocity). On the base of this methodology NETREL and model was developed. This model is useful for determing reliability of systems with different configurations and complexity. Also, it make possible restriction of various hydraulic parameters and their values. Model was analyzed on a water supply system.

One of the key design decisions when planning water resources systems with water storage reservoirs and water intakes is to define environmental flow that should be discharged downstream. Terms: environmental flow, water resources minimal flow, the necessary flow on the section of river, are described and distinction. On the base on hydrological studies of low flows and morphological-ecological analyses of waterways in our country, as well as the existing methods the authors define a new method appropriate for environmental flow in this region of Europe. Advantages of the model are: (a) ease for application, because it is based on the analysis of monthly low flow, (b) adjusted to life activities of biocenosis in the river biotope (flows are different in the warm and cold part of the year), (c) in the low flow periods those flows are higher than natural flows in the river, so they act as protection of aquatic ecosystems. Pri planiranju vodoprivrednih sistema sa akumulacijama i vodozahvatima jedna od ključnih projektnih odluka jeste: koliki protok odabrati kao obavezno ispuštanje iz akumulacije, odnosno nizvodno od vodozahvata. U radu je izvršeno jasno metodološko razgraničenje pojmova: garantovani ekološki protok, protok za vodoprivredne potrebe, potrebno ispuštanje nizvodno od brane ili rečnog vodozahvata. Analizom metoda koje se koriste u svetu, kao i na bazi hidroloških studija malih voda i morfološko-ekoloških analiza koje su urađene na našim vodotocima, autori su definisali novu metodu za izbor garantovanih ekoloških protoka pri planiranju na ovom prostoru Evrope. Prednosti metode su: (a) jednostavnost primene, jer se zasniva na analizi verovatnoća mesečnih malih voda, (b) prilagođenost životnim aktivnostima biocenoza u rečnom biotopu (protoci su različiti u toplom i hladnom delu godine), (c) u malovodnim periodima ti protoci su veći od protoka koji bi bili u prirodnom stanju, tako da predstavljaju najdelotvorniju zaštitu vodenih ekosistema.

As Sustainable development, a widely used but poorly understood term, challenges traditional scientific values such as prediction and control, scientists have tried to manipulate the concept to promote their own particular agendas. Thus, it has suffered from misrepresentation which has prevented the concept from being fully implemented at a practical level. It is asserted that traditional fragmented and mechanistic science is unable to cope with sustainability issues, and that there is no equilibrium or optimal point for an evolving system since the optimum is also moving. Therefore, approaches advocating engineering, linear, and mechanistic paradigms to define sustainability do not make much sense. Instead, we need to resort to non-linear thinking, more commonly referred to as systems thinking. Thus, System Dynamics, one branch of systems thinking which operates in a whole-system fashion, is put forward as a powerful methodology to deal with the issue. Using a system dynamics approach, the thesis introduces the idea of Viability Loops, the balancing loops in a dynamic system that serve to check the reinforcing mechanisms. It is also argued that sustainability is neither a system state nor a static goal to be achieved. It is an ideal of development efforts in a system. Ideals come from ethics and values, and they are indeed non-quantifiable. Sustainable development is perceived as a dynamic process evolving through a learning process, and not as any kind of optimum or end-state of a system. Neither is it adoptable to strategies based on command and control, fixed goals, and predictability. It, therefore, refers to the goal of fostering adaptive capabilities to respond to changes while simultaneously creating opportunities for the next generation to find a variety of options to meet their needs. The thesis argues that sustainable development is a process in which the Viability Loops are kept healthy. This process deals with evolutionary changes where the end point is not known in advance. According to this perception, measuring sustainable development does not make sense. Rather, systems should be monitored for sustainable development by means of process indicators. Principles are required to be fostered to deal with the issue of sustainable development and to fulfill the normative level of the society ?known as morality? as well as the natural rules ?identified as god given causal relations. In the thesis, principles of sustainable development adapted for water resources systems are suggested based on the principles of The Natural Steps (TNS) to address physical relations of nature, and system basic orientors to treat both environmental and humanitarian aspects of the issue respectively. It is argued that triggering a social learning process would be the most suitable strategy for sustainable development. To this end, backcasting is recommended as a suitable tool, and model building is regarded as a promotion of the learning process rather than a means of forecasting. Hållbar utveckling är ett ofta använt begrepp, som många inte riktigt förstår eftersom det går på tvärs mot traditionella vetenskapliga begrepp som förutsägelse och styrning. Många vetenskapsmän har tolkat begreppet på sätt som gynnar den egna agendan. Dessa vantolkningar har lett till att begreppet inte kommit till användning i praktisk planering. Avhandlingen hävdar att traditionell, fragmenterad och mekanistisk vetenskap inte kan hantera frågor kring hållbar utveckling eftersom det inte finns något jämviktstillstånd eller någon optimal trajektoria i ett dynamiskt system. Det handlar om en process, som ständigt utvecklas. Angreppssätt, som bygger på ingenjörstekniska, lineära eller mekanistiska paradigm blir inte meningsfulla. Istället måste vi ta till icke-lineär metodik dvs systemanalys. I avhandlingen utnyttjas System Dynamics, en variant av systemanalys, som möjliggör arbete utifrån ett helhetsperspektiv Utifrån detta perspektiv definieras loopar för livskraft. De är de negativa återkopplingar, som ger ett system en balanserad utveckling. Vidare hävdas att hållbar utveckling varken kan definieras som något specifikt systemtillstånd eller som något statiskt mål. Det är ett ouppnåeligt ideal, som systemet bör sträva att utvecklas mot. Idealet utvecklas också i takt med att arbetet hela tiden ger nya kunskaper och nya världsbilder. Eftersom idealen hämtas från ett etiskt förhållningssätt är de kvalitativa och inte kvantitativa. Hållbar utveckling behandlas som en dynamisk process, som utvecklas genom en kontinuerlig lärandeprocess. Det är således inte något, som kan kommenderas fram. Hållbar utveckling handlar om att skapa en anpassningsförmåga, som gör att systemet kan reagera på förändringar och samtidigt skapa förutsättningar för nya och bättre handlingsalternativ. I avhandlingen hävdas att hållbar utveckling handlar om en process där man ser till att hålla looparna för livskraft i gott skick. Denna process är evolutionär, vilket gör att man inte kan göra några förutsägelser rörande olika framtida tillstånd. Utifrån denna ståndpunkt blir det meningslöst att försöka mäta hållbarhet. Snarare bör man utnyttja processindikatorer för att se om utvecklingen går åt rätt håll. Det finns principer, som man måste följa för att kunna skapa en hållbar utveckling. Det handlar dels om grundläggande naturlagar, dels om samhällets grundläggande moraliska och etiska värderingar. Avhandlingen förordar principer för hållbar vattenhantering, som grundar sig på Det Naturliga Stegets formuleringar om vad naturen tål och några etiska principer för hantering av sociala och miljömässiga aspekter. Det hävdas att tillskapandet av sociala läroprocesser är den viktigaste strategiska frågan i arbetet för hållbar utveckling. Planering bör bygga på önskvärda framtida scenarier och analyser av hur man kan tänkas ha tagit sig dit. Detta resonemang leder till att modeller mer ses som intressanta verktyg för lärandeprocesser än som instrument för förutsägelser om framtida tillstånd.

Failure of water resources systems, particularly water supply systems, may cause serious consequences in economical and social environment. So these systems have to fulfill high requirements of their functional safety. Although very important, that aspect of safety is not treated adequately in the phases of planning water distribution systems. That is why the aspects of overall water resources systems reliability evaluation, as well as the problems of allocation and reliability optimal system configuration, are considered. New methodology for water resources systems reliability evaluation is presented. Proposed methodology considers both: mechanical reliability (probability of pipe failure) and reliability of hydraulic parameters in nodes and links (pressure, velocity). On the base of this methodology NETREL and 2PFREL models were developed. These models are useful for determing reliability of systems with different configurations and complexity. Also, they make possible restriction of various hydraulic parameters and their values. Models were analyzed and verified on different water supply systems: regional and distribution, and gravity and pumping systems. Another important task, considered in the thesis, was problem of optimal reliability allocation. Different methods were analyzed, but particular point was focused on genetic algorithms. That method, coupled with the reliability evaluation methods, is an efficient tool for problems of water resources systems optimal reliability allocation. This methodology provides performing optimization in real time and results that are usually the global optimum of the considered problem. Mechanical characteristics of pipes, failure and repair rates, are very important for system's overall reliability. These rates were considered and critically analyzed. Methods for planning operative monitoring-information system are proposed. Such a system allows better monitoring and management, reduction of repair time, which leads to higher values of system's overall reliability. Pipes failure and repair rates for Belgrade water supply system were analyzed and used as the base for evaluation of presented models.

U radu se razmatra mogućnost primene metode stabla otkaza za praćenje pouzdanosti složenih hidrotehničkih sistema. Daju se principi formiranja stabla otkaza, a zatim se analitički aparat Teorije pouzdanosti povezuje sa ovom metodom, korišćenjem elementarnih pravila Bulove algebre. Preporučuje se da se za sve složene hidrotehničke sisteme još u fazi projektovanja formiraju grafovi stabla otkaza, kako bi se unapred definisale slabe tačke sistema i našla odgovarajuća rešenja za njihovo ojačavanje u pogledu pouzdanosti funkcionisanja. This article deals with application of the fault tree concepts and technique to reliability analysis of water resources systems. Many aspects of the probabilistic effectiveness of water resources system (Operational readiness, assignment reliability, functional suitability) were analysed in Introduction. This three categories of the probabilistic effectiveness can be defined shortly by posing the following three questions: (1) Is water resources system ready for operation, when it is expected to function? (2) Will the system function normally for a given time period, if the answer to the first question was positive? (3) Can the system fulfil the required goals if the answer to the first two questions were positive? Concepts and techniques of fault tree analysis, and basic principles and a formal methodology for fault tree graphics construction of WRS is shown in chapter two. Chapter three systematise certain principal categories of reliability theory, used in WRS planning: reliability and unreliability functions, failure density function, failure - rate function , mean time between failures (MTBF), reliability and availability of restorable systems, repair rate , stationary coefficient of availability A, etc. Methods of the utilisation of fault tree graphics (Boolean indicated cut sets) for quantification of the reliability functions, failure - rate functions, MTBF, availability functions are presented. Some interesting example of fault tree construction and calculation of reliability of complex WRS is considered.