Search

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a climate change mitigation policy in which rich countries provide payments to developing countries for protecting their forests. In 2009, the countries of Norway and Guyana entered into one of the first bilateral REDD+ programs, with Norway offering to pay US$250 million to Guyana if annual deforestation rates remained below 0.056% from 2010 to 2015. To quantify the impact of this national REDD+ program, we construct a counterfactual times-series trajectory of annual tree cover loss using synthetic matching. This analytical approach allows us to quantify tree cover loss that would have occurred in the absence of the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program. We found that the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program reduced tree cover loss by 35% during the implementation period (2010 to 2015), equivalent to 12.8 million tons of avoided CO 2 emissions. Our analysis indicates that national REDD+ payments attenuated the effect of increases in gold prices, an internationally traded commodity that is the primary deforestation driver in Guyana. Overall, we found strong evidence that the program met the additionality criteria of REDD+. However, we found that tree cover loss increased after the payments ended, and therefore, our results suggest that without continued payments, forest protection is not guaranteed. On the issue of leakage, which is complex and difficult to quantify, a multinational REDD+ program for a region could address leakage that results from differences in forest policies between neighboring countries., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

The data regarding resources and environmental carrying capacities (RECC) are not only the basis for realizing regional sustainable development, but also the core links for major function-oriented zoning practices, which include specific partitioning schemes of spatial units with various geographical functions. Previously, relevant studies were mainly based on the evaluations of single factors. However, the realization of regional function-oriented spatial zoning practices based on comprehensive assessments of RECC has been neglected. This study presented an evaluation index system for RECC based on nine aspects, in accordance with the evaluation elements of the major function-oriented zoning programs which were in place and the characteristics of the study area. Then, by using subjective and objective comprehensive weighting methods, the basic elements were finally integrated, and an accurate spatial distribution pattern of the RECC in China's Fengxian County was obtained. In addition, based on the construction of a three-dimensional spatial conceptual model, this study was able to finally obtain four specific types of functional partitions in the study areas, and proposed specific development proposals according to the different types of functional zoning from a systemic perspective. It was observed that the RECC had been decreasing from a central built-up area to the surrounding townships, and the spatial distribution patterns were distinctly scattered. In addition, the townships with smaller land scales had more obvious advantages in the RECC. However, fluctuating upward trends were observed after the lowest thresholds had been reached as for the medium or above medium scales. At the same time, in terms of the correlations between the population levels, and gross values and the RECC, fluctuating characteristics were observed. The correlations with the latter had presented S-shape curves and inverted U-shape curves, respectively. Finally, the optimized expansion zone located in the north-central region had taken the greatest percentage among functional zoning classifications, followed by the basic competitive zone in the southwestern section. However, the main construction zone accounted for the smallest proportion, at only 2.065%. Therefore, based on these results, it was concluded that there were certain fluctuating correlations between the RECC and total population levels, economic levels, and land scales. Moreover, the RECC evaluation results were found to gradually decrease after rising to the thresholds under the comprehensive effects of the various factors. This study combined the data of the conceptual model with the RECC evaluation results, in order to obtain a potential geographical functional zoning program for the study area. The results of this study are expected to provide a new analysis perspective for the scientific and sustainable development of small-scale geographic units. Moreover, on the basis of this study's comprehensive evaluations of the RECC, the directions of regional development can be further clarified., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

According to the number of environmental management practices implemented by the firm and the degree of integration of environmental management with other functions of the firm, this study divides environmental management into two dimensions: environmental management breadth and environmental management depth. We argue that the impact of environmental management breadth on manufacturing performance is moderated by environmental management depth. A survey data including 225 Chinese manufacturing firms is used to test the hypotheses. Results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental management breadth and manufacturing performance; the impact of environmental management depth is positive; meanwhile, environmental management depth moderates the relationship between environmental management breadth and manufacturing performance.

Alternatives to ecologically devastating deforestation land use change trajectories are needed to reduce the carbon footprint of oil palm (OP) plantations in the tropics. Although various land use change options have been proposed, so far, there are no empirical data on their long-term ecosystem carbon pools effects. Our results demonstrate that pasture-to-OP conversion in savanna regions does not change ecosystem carbon storage, after 56 years in Colombia. Compared to rainforest conversion, this alternative land use change reduces net ecosystem carbon losses by 99.7 ± 9.6%. Soil organic carbon (SOC) decreased until 36 years after conversion, due to a fast decomposition of pasture-derived carbon, counterbalancing the carbon gains in OP biomass. The recovery of topsoil carbon content, suggests that SOC stocks might partly recover during a third plantation cycle. Hence, greater OP sustainability can be achieved if its expansion is oriented toward pasture land., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Routinely crossing international borders and/or persisting in populations across multiple countries, species are commonly subject to a patchwork of endangered species legislation. Canada and the United States share numerous endangered species; their respective acts, the Species at Risk Act (SARA) and the Endangered Species Act (ESA), require documents that outline requirements for species recovery. Although there are many priorities for improving endangered species legislation effectiveness, species recovery goals are a crucial component. We compared recovery goal quality, as measured by goal quantitativeness and ambition, for species listed under SARA and ESA. By comparing across ESA and SARA, the intent of the study was to identify differences and similarities that could support the development of stronger species' recovery goals under both legislations. Our results indicated that: (1) overall, only 38% of recovery goals were quantitative, 41% had high ambition, and 26% were both quantitative and with high ambition; (2) recovery goals had higher quantitativeness and ambition under ESA than SARA; (3) recovery goals for endangered species had higher ambition than threatened species under ESA and SARA, and; (4) no recovery goal aimed to restore populations to historic levels. Combined, these findings provide guidance to strengthen recovery goals and improve subsequent conservation outcomes. In particular, species at risk planners should seek to attain higher recovery goal ambition, particularly for SARA-listed species, and include quantitative recovery goals wherever possible., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

According to the 2017 results of the Special Inspector of Sea Reclamation, a substantial number of idle reclamation zones existed in 11 provinces (cities) along the coast of China. To improve the protection level of coastal wetlands and strictly control reclamation activities, it is necessary to carry out ecological restoration of reclamation projects and adjacent marine ecosystems. The characteristics of Guanghai Bay and its reclamation project are typical in China's coastal areas, making it an optimal representative site for this study. The dissipative structure and entropy theory was used to analyze ecological problems and environmental threats. The analytic hierarchy process was applied to determine the order of the negative entropy flow importance. The entropy increase and decrease mechanism was used to determine an ecological protection and restoration scheme for the reclamation, including the reclamation of wetland resource restoration, shoreline landscape restoration, environmental pollution control, and marine biological resource restoration. Finally, based on system logic, a typical ecological restoration system was constructed east of Guanghai Bay, with the mangrove wetland area as the model in the north and the artificial sandbeach recreation area as the focus in the south., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) projects are increasingly flourishing throughout the globe on the grounds that EbA constitutes a particularly community-friendly solution for adaptation to climate change as it brings about an array of co-benefits. However, the promotion of EbA projects, by development agencies and conservation NGOs, remains blurry as it has not yet been contrasted against evidence on its effectiveness in delivering these benefits. Employing a political ecology perspective, the applied conceptual framework allows for the assessment of the social benefits and costs that EbA projects generate or reinforce and factors that influence the distribution of these social benefits or costs. This research is done in regards to two EbA projects in Colombia: one in the Andes focusing on water provision services from páramos, and the other in a coastal mangrove focusing on regulation services of extreme coastal events. Based on data collected by a qualitative multi-method approach, we find evidence that the assessed EbA projects generate a wide range of perceived social benefits and costs for the local communities living in the vicinity of the project sites. Furthermore, we identify agent-level (i.e., capitals and preferences) as well as structural factors (communication, participation, local and institutional context) that influence the generation and distribution of those social benefits and costs. Finally, this paper illustrates some of the contradictions and tensions in which EbA projects are implemented and how they may end up affecting the adaptive capacity of the communities involved in EbA projects.

The specific case of home gardening practices is particularly relevant when discussing lifestyle habits and ecological transition, due to the wide range of positive and negative environmental externalities private gardens may generate. However, existing studies usually focus on restricted areas, mostly at a city scale. We provide an original empirical contribution to the literature on individual and institutional drivers regarding ecological transition by exploring the variations of individual behavior between European countries with an appropriate econometric approach. Using a European database (Eurobarometer 83.4), we highlight several interesting results regarding Europeans' adoption of sustainable gardening practices, more particularly on the role of socio-demographic drivers, urban or rural residential location and access to trustworthy biodiversity-related information. In conclusion, we provide recommendations for the design of dedicated public policies, specific to a national or local level of decision., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Habitat degradation and hunting have caused the widespread loss of larger vertebrate species (defaunation) from tropical biodiversity hotspots. However, these defaunation drivers impact vertebrate biodiversity in different ways and, therefore, require different conservation interventions. We conducted landscape-scale camera-trap surveys across six study sites in Southeast Asia to assess how moderate degradation and intensive, indiscriminate hunting differentially impact tropical terrestrial mammals and birds. We found that functional extinction rates were higher in hunted compared to degraded sites. Species found in both sites had lower occupancies in the hunted sites. Canopy closure was the main predictor of occurrence in the degraded sites, while village density primarily influenced occurrence in the hunted sites. Our findings suggest that intensive, indiscriminate hunting may be a more immediate threat than moderate habitat degradation for tropical faunal communities, and that conservation stakeholders should focus as much on overhunting as on habitat conservation to address the defaunation crisis., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2019.)

Due to remarkable socioeconomic development, an increasing number of karst rocky desertification areas have been severely affected by human activities in southern China. Effectively analyzing human activities in karst rocky desertification areas is a critical prerequisite for managing and restoring areas with tremendous negative impacts from desertification. At present, a timely and accurate way of quantifying the spatiotemporal variations of human activities in karst rocky desertification areas is still lacking. In this communication, we attempted to quantify human activities from the corrected Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) nighttime light composite data from 2012 to 2018 based on statistical analysis. The results show that a significant increase of night lights could be clearly identified during the study period. The total nighttime lights (TL) related to severe karst rocky desertification (S) were particularly concentrated in Guizhou and Yunnan. The nighttime light intensity (LI) related to the S areas in Chongqing was the strongest due to its rapid socioeconomic development. The annual growth rate of nighttime lights (GL) has been slow or even negative in Guangdong because of its various karst rocky desertification restoration programs. This communication could provide an effective approach for quantifying human activities and provide useful information about where prompt attention is required for policy-making on the restoration of the karst rocky desertification areas., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The exploration of different stakeholders' heterogeneous willingness to pay for farmland ecological value is a fundamental part of understanding the total value of farmland protection and designing a scientific farmland protection policy. Unlike the homogenous assumption used in the previous studies, the mixed logit model of choice experiment method was applied to estimate respondents' heterogeneous willingness to pay for farmland non-market value (represented by farmland area, farmland fertility, water quality, air quality, species richness, and recreational value) in this study. Data came from a sample of 289 farmers in Wuhan, China who were face-to-face interviewed. Results showed that: (1) Farmers were unsatisfied with the status quo of the present farmland ecological environment and were willing to pay to preserve all the attributes of farmland non-market value. (2) Farmers had a heterogeneous preference for the status quo and recreational value-the error variances of these two attributes were both significant at the 1% level, and their willingness to pay for the farmland non-market value in Wuhan was 1141.88 Yuan/hm 2 . (3) Farmers' cognition degree of farmland importance and whether respondents bought medical insurance or not had significant impacts on their willingness to pay. The results can provide the basic foundation for accurate valuation of farmland non-market services, help farmland regulators make the right farmland conversion decisions, and improve the resource allocation efficiency of local financial expenditure during farmland protection in Wuhan., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

In order to address the topic of the tragedy of the commons, more specifically that of tropical forest ecosystems explored as common-pool resources endowed with public-good features and exposed to deforestation risks, we consider game-theoretic population dynamics contingent on various differential equations. We propose an evolutionary model handed down to the Price theorem of selection. In a set of model-players evolving in strategic uncertainty and subject to certain mutation toward cooperation, the Price equation evens out unstructured and structured population replicator dynamics. According to the model outputs, avoiding the tragedy of the commons can be achieved on condition that half of the population temporarily exhibits a cooperative behavior. Furthermore, cooperative model-players ought to be rewarded at a level equivalent to the joint selection of cooperators and competitors issued from the unifying Price identity.

Threshold-based harvesting strategies tend to give high yields while protecting the exploited population. A significant drawback, however, is the possibility of harvesting moratoria with their socio-economic consequences, if the population size falls below the threshold and harvesting is not allowed anymore. Proportional threshold harvesting (PTH) is a strategy, where only a fraction of the population surplus above the threshold is harvested. It has been suggested to overcome the drawbacks of threshold-based strategies. Here, we use discrete-time single-species models and rigorously analyze the impact of PTH on population dynamics and stability. We find that the population response to PTH can be markedly different depending on the specific population model. Reducing the threshold and allowing more harvest can be destabilizing (for the Ricker and Hassell map), stabilizing (for the quadratic map), or both (for the generalized Beverton-Holt map). Similarly, management actions in the form of increasing the threshold do not always improve population stability-this can also be due to bistability. Our results therefore emphasize the importance of a rigorous analysis in investigating the impact of PTH on population stability.

Quantifying patterns of deforestation and linking these patterns to potentially influencing variables is a key component of modelling and projecting land use change. Statistical methods based on null hypothesis testing are only partially successful for interpreting deforestation in the context of the processes that have led to their formation. Simplifications of cause-consequence relationships that are difficult to support empirically may influence environment and development policies because they suggest simple solutions to complex problems. Deforestation is a complex process driven by multiple proximate and underlying factors and a range of scales. In this study we use a multivariate statistical analysis to provide contextual explanation for deforestation in the Usumacinta River Basin based on partial pattern matching. Our approach avoided testing trivial null hypotheses of lack of association and investigated the strength and form of the response to drivers. As not all factors involved in deforestation are easily mapped as GIS layers, analytical challenges arise due to lack of a one to one correspondence between mappable attributes and drivers. We avoided testing simple statistical hypotheses such as the detectability of a significant linear relationship between deforestation and proximity to roads or water. We developed a series of informative generalised additive models based on combinations of layers that corresponded to hypotheses regarding processes. The importance of the variables representing accessibility was emphasised by the analysis. We provide evidence that land tenure is a critical factor in shaping the decision to deforest and that direct beam insolation has an effect associated with fire frequency and intensity. The effect of winter insolation was found to have many applied implications for land management. The methodology was useful for interpreting the relative importance of sets of variables representing drivers of deforestation. It was an informative approach, thus allowing the construction of a comprehensive understanding of its causes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Purpose of Review: Loss of biodiversity and globalized environmental degradation result in planetary-scale changes which impact human societies., Recent Findings: This paper highlights the urgency for public health researchers to integrate a global change perspective into their daily work. The public health community needs to answer several questions, e.g., how to weight the health of present and future generations; how to balance between the possible immediate adverse impacts of mitigating climate change vs long-term adverse impacts of global change; how to limit the environmental impacts of public health intervention; and how to allocate resources. Public health practitioners are faced with a moral responsibility to address these challenges. Key elements to ensure long-lasting, innovative global change and health solutions include (i) empowering the population; (ii) tailoring the framing of global change and health impacts for different stakeholders; (iii) adopting less conservative approaches on reporting future scenarios; (iv) increasing accountability about the health impacts of mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (v) recognizing the limits of science.

The purpose of this study was to explore the correlations between land use/cover change and cultivated land ecological security in flatland and mountainous areas. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land use/cover change are described in conjunction with ArcGIS10.5 software based on remote sensing images of 2005 and 2015. Then, by establishing a pressure-support framework as an assessment indicator system and developing an improved BP neural network model via a genetic algorithm with the help of MATLAB2016a, the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of cultivated land ecological security in Yuxi City from 2005 to 2015 are evaluated. The results showed that the transformation of farmland area accounted for a large proportion of increased constructive land and land use/cover spatial variations were significantly different among counties, which manifested the changes in farmland and the construction land in flatland areas but also facilitated a mutual transformation of forest and grass in mountainous areas. Moreover, ecological security status presented a clear difference among counties due to their different land use/cover changes. The ecological security state of the flatland expressed a higher ecological pressure and lower ecological support, so the security grade was IV. Otherwise, the ecological security was superior and the security grade was level II or I in the mountainous areas. Thus, protection strategies for ecological security should be differentiated in the flatland areas and mountainous areas due to their different ecological security status brought by land use/cover change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Many piscivorous fish species are depleted and/or threatened around the world. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are tools for conservation and fisheries management, though there is still controversy regarding the best design for increasing their ecological effectiveness. Here, on the basis of a weighted meta-analytical approach, we have assessed the effect of 32 MPAs, distributed worldwide, on the biomass and density of piscivorous fishes. We analysed the MPA features and the biological, commercial and ecological characteristics of fishes that may affect the response of species to protection. We found a positive effect on the biomass and density of piscivores inside MPAs. This effect was stronger for the biomass of medium-sized fishes (in relation to the maximum size reported for the species) and the density of large and gregarious species. The size of the no-take zone had a significant negative impact on both response variables and differed according to the level of enforcement, with smaller no-take zones having higher levels of enforcement. Thus, MPAs help to protect piscivorous fish species, with smaller, but well enforced reserves being more effective for the protection of the local populations of piscivorous fishes throughout the world., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Protected areas (PAs) are the leading tools to conserve forests. However, given their mixed effectiveness, we want to know when they have impacts internally and, if they do, when they have spillovers. Political economy posits roles for the level of government. One hypothesis is that federal PAs avoid more internal deforestation than state PAs since federal agencies consider gains for other jurisdictions. Such political differences as well as economic mechanisms can cause PA spillovers to vary greatly, even from "leakage," more deforestation elsewhere, to "blockage," less deforestation elsewhere. We examine internal impacts and local spillovers for Brazilian Amazon federal and state agencies. Outside the region's "arc of deforestation," we confirm little internal impact and show no spillovers. In the "arc," we test impacts by state, as states are large and feature considerably different dynamics. For internal impacts, estimates for federal PAs and indigenous lands are higher than for state PAs. For local spillover impacts, estimates for most arc states either are not significant or are not robust; however, for Pará, federal PAs and indigenous lands feature both internal impacts and local spillovers. Yet, the spillovers in Pará go in opposite directions across agencies, leakage for indigenous lands but blockage for federal PAs, suggesting a stronger external signal from the environmental agency. Across all these tools, only federal PAs lower deforestation internally and nearby. Results suggest that agencies' objectives and capacities are critical parts of the contexts for conservation strategies., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Population monitoring of endangered species is essential to the improvement of their management and conservation plans. The black-headed squirrel monkey (Saimiri vanzolinii) is a vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List and has extreme geographical endemism, exhibiting the smallest known distribution among Neotropical primates (ca. 870 km 2 ), over 90% of which occurs in white-water flooded forests within the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR), Brazilian Amazonia. To assess the effectiveness of this protected area in conserving the species, we conducted population monitoring of black-headed squirrel monkeys across five consecutive years (2009-2013) on nine trails 2 km each. Each year samples included both low and high river water periods. We used the distance sampling method, recording the distance to each observed social group as well as counting component individuals. We also calculated annual encounter rates based on the number of individuals sighted every 10 km traveled. Densities ranged from 256 individuals/km 2 (2011) to 453 individuals/km 2 (2013), and no seasonal differences were detected. Population size was estimated to be 147,848 mature individuals. Encounter rates ranged from 100 individuals/10 km (2010) to 179 individuals/10 km (2013); no significant difference among years was found. We found that S. vanzolinii populations remained stable throughout the years, which indicates that the MSDR has been playing an essential role on protecting this species. Due to difficulties of fulfilling assumptions of the distance sampling method, we consider the encounter rate analysis to be more effective for monitoring this and other Saimiri species. Given the critical endemism and worrying conservation status of S. vanzolinii, we suggest that monitoring of the species population should be carried out regularly., (© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

The construction of The Three Gorges Reservoir has changed land use structure and reconstituted landscape pattern as imparts significant influence upon the land use structure and ecological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Regions. The ecological safety of reservoir area is extremely dependent on unique location and special geological conditions of Zhongxian County, the center of Three Gorges Reservoir Regions in Chongqing, and therefore, ecological environment of reservoir area will be changed with the transition of land use in Zhongxian County. Based on land use data in 2000, 2005, 2010, this paper chooses influencing factors from aspects of natural topographic and geomorphological conditions, accessibility to economic development and land use expansion, and then establishes Logistic-CA-Markov (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov) and WLC-CA-Markov (Weighted Linear Combination- Cellular Automata- Markov) models so as to simulate spatial pattern of land use of Zhongxian County. The results demonstrate that WLC-CA-Markov model established here has better controllability and higher simulation precision (the kappa coefficient is 0.9295). In the future development of Zhongxian County, the area of grassland and plow land will be reduced continuously, the area of construction land will be expanded obviously mostly because of the added area both near the water and in the north of Zhongxian county, the area of woodland will be increased to a little extent, the area of water area and unused land has gentle change. In the sustainable scenario, the area of grassland will be reduced slightly, the area of water area keeps steady, the area of plow land is reduced but higher than red line of plow land, the area of construction land is increased with significantly smaller increase amplitude than that in the natural development scenario, and the woodland is increased. This scenario coordinates ecological environment with economic development of regional society and turns out to be the best development scenario of land use.

Worldwide, roads are a main driver of deforestation and degradation as they increase forest access along the forest edge. In many tropical areas, unofficial roads go unreported and unrecorded, resulting in inaccurate estimates of intact forested areas. This is the case in central Sumatra, which boasts populations of critically endangered Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatrensis), tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and other endemic flora and fauna that make the area globally unique. However, maps do not reflect the reality of forest loss in the area. Here we present new maps from 2002 and 2016 of digitized and ground-truthed roads in one of Sumatra's unique lowland tropical protected areas, Tesso Nilo National Park. Using our newly created roads dataset, we examine the distribution of forest with respect to distance to roads. Our data show >2,400 km of roads within the national park in 2016 -nearly a 10-fold increase from roads known in 2002. Most forest (82-99%) within Tesso Nilo falls within 100 m, 500 m, and 1000 m of road edges. Length of road increased 157% and road density increased from 1.06 km/km2 to 2.63 km/km2 from 2002-2016. Our results suggest that this endemic ecosystem is facing substantial threat from roads and their associated impacts. Without swift management action, such as road closures and increased enforcements by park management, this ecosystem, and its endemic wildlife, could be lost. It is imperative that protected areas worldwide more rigorously consider roads and road effects on ecosystem fragmentation in their conservation plans., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The sustainable development of the environment and society depends not only on firms' social responsibility initiatives, but also on employees' socially responsible behavior during their daily work life. Hence, it is important to study why and how employees go about the socially responsible behaviors (SRB), such as environmental protection and charitable donations. Although research has been done on the antecedents of employees' SRB from personal, contextual and leadership perspectives, little is known about the mechanism through which they affect these behaviors. Moreover, compared with the other two perspectives, research from the leadership perspective is relatively scarce. In this paper, we aim to fill these research gaps. Based on 936 respondents from 109 corporations, we empirically test the cross-level direct effect of ethical leadership on employees' SRB and the cross-level mediating effect of perceived organizational virtuousness. In our empirical analyses, we adopt statistical methodologies such as hierarchical linear modeling and multilevel mediation analysis. Our results show that perceived organizational virtuousness partly mediates the influence of ethical leadership on employees' environmental protection and charitable donation. In other words, ethical leadership enables employees to form the perception of organizational virtuousness, and therefore employees are more engaged in environmental protection and charitable donations. This research provides important insights for firms and their employees to become more socially and environmentally responsible., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The well-documented value of marine fisheries is threatened by overfishing. Management typically focuses on target populations but lacks effective tools to document or restrain overexploitation of marine ecosystems. Here, we present three indices and accompanying thresholds to detect and delineate ecosystem overfishing (EOF): the Fogarty, Friedland, and Ryther indices. These are based on widely available and readily interpreted catch and satellite data that link fisheries landings to primary production using known limits of trophic transfer efficiency. We propose theoretically and empirically based thresholds for each of those indices; with these criteria, several ecosystems are fished sustainably, but nearly 40 to 50% of tropical and temperate ecosystems exceed even extreme thresholds. Applying these criteria to global fisheries data results in strong evidence for two specific instances of EOF, increases in both pressure on tropical fish and a climate-mediated polar shift. Here, we show that these two patterns represent evidence for global EOF.

Effective assessments of the status of Caribbean fish communities require historical baselines to adequately understand how much fish communities have changed through time. To identify such changes and their causes, we compiled a historical overview using data collected at the beginning (1905-1908), middle (1958-1965) and end (1984-2016) of the 20th century, of the artisanal fishing practices and their effects on fish populations around Curaçao, a small island in the southern Caribbean. We documented historical trends in total catch, species composition, and catch sizes per fisher per month for different types of fisheries and related these to technological and environmental changes affecting the island's fisheries and fish communities. We found that since 1905, fishers targeted species increasingly farther from shore after species occurring closer to shore had become rare. This resulted in surprisingly similar catches in terms of weight, but not composition. Large predatory reef fishes living close to shore (e.g., large Epinephelid species) had virtually disappeared from catches around the mid-20th century, questioning the use of data from this period as baseline data for modern day fish assessments. Secondly, we compared fish landings to in-situ counts from 1969 to estimate the relative contributions of habitat destruction and overfishing to the changes in fish abundance around Curaçao. The decline in coral dominated reef communities corresponded to a concurrent decrease in the abundance and diversity of smaller reef fish species not targeted by fishers, suggesting habitat loss, in addition to fishing, caused the observed declines in reef fish abundance around Curaçao., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Years when the deer population is robust during the autumn hunting season may point toward an elevated risk of Lyme disease (LD) in the human population two summers later. We applied overdispersed Poisson regression models to county-specific data from New Jersey for each year from 2000 to 2014. The average relative risk of LD for each additional hunter-killed deer per square mile was 1.12 (1.10, 1.14) for 2000-2007 and 1.11 (1.09, 1.13) for 2008-2014. The hunting data already collected for conservation and wildlife management purposes may be a relevant component of LD surveillance activities.

This article studies the price competition and cooperation in a duopoly that is subjected to carbon emissions cap. The study assumes that in a departure from the classical Bertrand game, there is still a market for both firms' goods regardless of the product price, even though production capacity is limited by carbon emissions regulation. Through the decentralized decision making of both firms under perfect information, the results are unstable. The firm with the lower maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation and the firm with the higher maximum production capacity both seek market price cooperation. By designing an internal carbon credits trading mechanism, we can ensure that the production capacity of the firm with the higher maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation reaches price equilibrium. Also, the negotiation power of the duopoly would affect the price equilibrium.

Mathematical theory has predicted that populations diffusing in heterogeneous environments can reach larger total size than when not diffusing. This prediction was tested in a recent experiment, which leads to extension of the previous theory to consumer-resource systems with external resource input. This paper studies a two-patch model with diffusion that characterizes the experiment. Solutions of the model are shown to be nonnegative and bounded, and global dynamics of the subsystems are completely exhibited. It is shown that there exist stable positive equilibria as the diffusion rate is large, and the equilibria converge to a unique positive point as the diffusion tends to infinity. Rigorous analysis on the model demonstrates that homogeneously distributed resources support larger carrying capacity than heterogeneously distributed resources with or without diffusion, which coincides with experimental observations but refutes previous theory. It is shown that spatial diffusion increases total equilibrium population abundance in heterogeneous environments, which coincides with real data and previous theory while a new insight is exhibited. A novel prediction of this work is that these results hold even with source-sink populations and increasing diffusion rate of consumer could change its persistence to extinction in the same-resource environments.

In this paper, we propose and study the deterministic and stochastic lake ecosystem models to investigate the impact of terrestrial organic matter upon persistence of the plankton populations. By constructing Lyapunov function and using the LaSalle's Invariance Principle, we establish global properties of the deterministic model. The dynamical behavior of solutions fits well with some experimental results. It is concluded that the terrestrial organic matter plays an important role in influencing interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton. Based on the fluctuations of lake ecosystem, we further develop a stochastically perturbed model. Theoretic analysis implies that the stochastic model exists a stationary distribution which is ergodic. The key point of our analysis is to enhance our knowledge of the factors governing the dynamics of plankton population models.

This paper describes the redesign, field-testing, and convergent validity of a practical tool-Physical Activity Campus Environmental Supports (PACES) audit. Methods. The audit includes two parts: (1) PACES-Programs, which is comprised of questions regarding populations served, fees, programs (recreation/fitness classes and intramurals), proximity, adequacy of facilities, and marketing, and (2) PACES-Facilities, which is comprised of questions regarding built environment (aesthetics, bike racks, stairs, and universal design), recreation equipment, staff, amenities, and access. Each item criterion is specifically scored using a five-point, semantic-differential scale ranging from limited to extensive environmental support. A few questions utilize select all that apply for a summed score. PACES training, interrater reliability, and data collection are all accessible via an online portal. PACES was tested on 76 college campuses. Convergent validity was examined by comparing the PACES-Programs questions to Healthy Campus Initiatives-Programs questions (HCI-Programs) and comparing the PACES-Facilities questions to questions contained in the Physical Activity Resource Assessment (PARA) Instrument. Statistical analyses included Cronbach's alpha, ANOVA, latent profile analysis, and Spearman correlations. Results. The PACES-Programs audit includes 10 items for a potential total of 73 points ( α  = 0.72) and PACES-Facilities audit includes 15 items for a potential total of 77 points ( α  = 0.837). Most (77.8%) of the 153 facilities assessed scored in the most healthful range (20-42), which was mainly due to the extensiveness of the aerobic equipment/amenities and the competence/accessibility of staff. Significant differences in PACES-Total and PACES-Programs scores were associated with campus size and PACES-Facilities across regions. For the paired validation assessments, correlations were significant between PACES-Programs and HCI-Programs (( n =41) r =0.498, p < 0.001) and PACES-Facilities and PARA ( n =29) for both features ( r =0.417, p =0.024) and amenities ( r =0.612, p < 0.001), indicating moderate convergent validity. Conclusion. The PACES audit is a valid, reliable tool for assessing the quality of recreation facilities and programs in a variety of college campus environments.

The Bharathapuzha river basin, once endowed with dense vegetation and abundant water, has been experiencing acute water shortage and extreme climatic conditions in recent times. To understand the influence of human interventions on the natural environmental conditions, including the problems mentioned above, it is essential to critically examine the changes in land use/cover over these years. The objective of this study is to assess land use/cover change in the Bharathapuzha river basin, Kerala during the period 1990-2017 using LANDSAT series satellite images. The dynamics of land use/cover change were quantified and mapped using geospatial techniques. The multi-temporal LANDSAT images were classified by supervised maximum likelihood method to generate the corresponding land use/cover maps; changes in land use/cover in the river basin were subsequently detected by the post-classification technique. Results of the study revealed a drastic change in land use/cover in the period 1990-2017; the primary causes of this were deforestation and urbanization. The near- and long-term future land use/cover maps of the basin for 2020 and 2035 were generated from the historically retrieved land use/cover change pattern. Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov chain techniques were used to generate future land use/cover maps. These maps reveal that the predominant land use/cover class in the basin will be barren land and about 46.13% of the existing (in 2017) dense vegetation will diminish by 2035. The efficiency of sustainable watershed management activities in the river basin can be improved based on the critical observations from this study.

Continual, historical, and accurate information about the land use/land cover (LULC) changes of the earth's surface is extremely important for sustainable management of natural resources. In this study, historical topographic sheets, IRS P6 LISS-III, and LANDSAT TM images were used to provide recent and historical LULC conditions of the Eastern Ghats Highlands of east India. The supervised classification results were further improved by employing image enhancement and visual interpretation. Ratio Vegetation Index with fuzzy-based possibilistic c-means classification approach has improved the classification accuracy of the shifting cultivated area. Post-classification comparisons of the classified images indicated that the major change consisted of barren land and forestland changing into agricultural land and scrubland. Between 1931 and 2008, forest cover was decreased from 52.7% to 29.6% of total area. There was an increase in the scrub area from 874 (10.4%) to 1269 km 2 (15.2%), and agricultural land from 978 (11.7%) to 2864 km 2 (34.2%) during the same period. The rate of deforestation was found to be 0.65 km 2 per year for reserve forest and 24.50 km 2 per year for mixed forest. The shifting cultivated area in the district was 308.7 km 2 during 2004, and that has been reduced since then and now is stabilized to 186.4 km 2 area. Among this 186.4 km 2 area, nearly half is covered by abandoned shifting cultivation. The decadal rate of decrease of shifting cultivated area is 0.15% per year. The shifting cultivated areas were mainly distributed at elevations 580-810 and 810-907 m and slopes 20-30 and 30-40%. Southeast and south facing slopes were preferred for shifting cultivation. Based on the identified causes of the change in shifting cultivation, policy recommendations for their better management were made.

We characterize the ecological, economic, and community performance of 21 major tuna fisheries, accounting for at least 77% of global tuna production, using the Fishery Performance Indicators. Our analysis reveals that the biggest variations in performance among tuna fisheries are driven by the final markets that they target: international sashimi market tuna fisheries considerably outperform a comparison set of 62 non-tuna fisheries in the Fishery Performance Indicator database, international canned tuna market fisheries perform similarly to the comparison set, and tuna fisheries supplying local markets in coastal states considerably underperform the comparison set. Differences among regional fishery management organizations primarily reflect regional species composition and market access, despite stark variation in governance, management, and other enabling conditions. With a legacy of open access, tuna's harvest sector performance is similar across all fisheries, reflecting only a normal return on the capital and skill invested: industrial vessels slightly outperform semi-industrial and artisanal vessels. Differences emerge in the post-harvest sector however, as value chains able to preserve quality and transport fish to high value markets outperform others.

The adaptability of ISO 14001 is considered as one of the most useful tools for environmental sustainability and worldwide competitive advantage; however, the future of ISO 14001 certification faces some uncertainties because of its uneven acceptance in various countries. These uncertainties, if not properly managed, can hinder the implementation of business management systems in these countries. In order to guide policymakers in better management of ISO 14001 in future with certainty, this study aims to forecast the ISO 14001 certifications for 10 years for China, India, the USA, Italy, Japan, and Germany, the top six certified countries, through advanced mathematical modeling, namely grey models, even GM (1,1), discrete GM (1,1), and non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM). The benefits of mentioned models are ensured accuracy in assessment using small samples and poor information. Moreover, current research is a pioneer in the certifications growth analysis using the Synthetic Relative Growth Rate and Synthetic Doubling Time models. Finally, the empirical analysis indicated that China is constantly leading in terms of its ISO 14001 certifications till 2026 and the performance of developing countries was spectacular. Furthermore, the article has proposed some suggestions for the policymakers to make the environment more sustainable.

Ecologically sensitive suburban areas provide important ecosystem services and protect urban ecological security because of their multiple functions in natural and human systems. The research on the ecological environment effects of land use activities in ecologically sensitive suburban areas is important in guiding the healthy and sustainable development of cities. Taking the west suburbs of Hangzhou in China as a case study, we quantified land use changes from Landsat satellite imagery and calculated the value of ecosystem services using the well-established equivalent factor table for land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem services value (ESV). The impacts of LUCC on the ecological environment were analyzed using the transfer matrix of land use and coefficient of elasticity. Results revealed the following. (1) The total ESV in the western suburban area of Hangzhou decreased from $109.95 million in 2000 to $87.09 million in 2016. Moreover, the ESV of gas regulation, climate regulation, soil formation and protection, as well as biodiversity conservation presented a large decrease of more than 25%, especially between 2010 and 2016. (2) The spatial distribution of ESV was high in the west and low in the east. The regions with a significant reduction in ESV were mainly distributed in the eastern town of Wuchang and in Jincheng Town located in the midwest valley. (3) Industrial agglomeration activities in the ecologically sensitive suburban area emerged as the primary factor influencing ESV for various land uses. The elasticity indicator for assessing the responses to ESV changes relative to LUCC showed that 1% of the land conversion in this area resulted in average changes in ESV of 4.1% after the establishment of the industrial agglomeration area. (4) The increase in construction land was associated with a significant decrease in forest area because of the policy of cultivated land requisition⁻compensation balance and development strategies for low-slope hilly lands. Consequently, the ESV in the ecologically sensitive suburban areas rapidly declined.

The complexity of trade networks is a major challenge to controlling wildlife trafficking and illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. These networks may not be modern inventions, but have developed over centuries, from integrated global markets that preceded modern regulatory policies. To understand these linkages, we curated 150 years of tortoiseshell transactions and derived biologically informed harvest models to estimate the trade in critically endangered hawksbill sea turtles ( Eretmochelys imbricata ). We find that trade networks concentrated in Southeast Asia harvested 9 million turtles, over six times previous estimates. These networks spread from within the Pacific, to the Indian and Atlantic basins, and became markedly more complex after 1950. Our results further indicate that the magnitude and extent of the coastally restricted hawksbill exploitation parallel current patterns of IUU fishing. Policies to combat these interlinked illegal practices should assimilate the important role of small-scale, coastal fisheries in these increasingly complex global networks.

Future climate change will impose increased variability on food production and food trading networks. However, the effect of climate variability and sudden shocks on resource availability through trade and its subsequent effect on population growth is largely unknown. Here we study the effect of resource variability and network topology on access to resources and population growth, using a model of population growth limited by resource availability in a trading network. Resources are redistributed in the network based on supply and the distance between nodes (i.e. cities or countries). Resources at nodes vary over time with wave parameters that mimic changes in biomass production arising from known climate variability. Random perturbations to resources are applied to study resilience of individual nodes and the system as a whole. The model demonstrates that redistribution of resources increases the maximum population that can be supported (carrying capacity) by the network. Fluctuations in carrying capacity depend on the amplitude and frequency of resource variability: fluctuations become larger for increasing amplitude and decreasing frequency. Our study shows that topology is the key factor determining the carrying capacity of a node. In larger networks the carrying capacity increases and the distribution of resources in the network becomes more equal. The most central nodes achieve a higher carrying capacity than nodes with a lower centrality. Moreover, central nodes are less susceptible to long-term resource variability and shocks. These insights can be used to understand how worldwide equitable access to resources can be maintained under increasing climate variability., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Natural capital will be depleted rapidly and excessively if the long-term, offsite impacts of depletion are ignored. By examining the case of tropical forest burning, we illustrate such myopia: Pursuit of short-term economic gains results in air pollution that causes long-term, irreversible health impacts. We integrate longitudinal data on prenatal exposure to the 1997 Indonesian forest fires with child nutritional outcomes and find that mean exposure to air pollution during the prenatal stage is associated with a half-SD decrease in height-for-age z score at age 17, which is robust to several statistical checks. Because adult height is associated with income, this implies a loss of 4% of average monthly wages for approximately one million Indonesian workers born during this period. To put these human capital losses in the context of policy making, we conduct social cost-benefit analyses of oil palm plantations under different scenarios for clearing land and controlling fires. We find that clearing for oil palm plantations using mechanical methods generates higher social net benefits compared with clearing using fires. Oil palm producers, however, would be unwilling to bear the higher private costs of mechanical clearing. Therefore, we need more effective fire bans, fire suppression, and moratoriums on oil palm in Indonesia to protect natural and human capital, and increase social welfare., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The particularities of agriculture, as a sector which ensures food supply, result from many factors, including the multilateral interaction between the environment and human activity. The extent of human intervention in the food production process is usually measured with the amount of capital expenditure. Therefore, the food production potential and the resulting food security depend on both natural and economic factors. This paper identifies the current status of food security in different countries around the world, considering both aspects (physical and economic availability) combined together. The variables published by FAO were used together with a variable estimated based on the author's own methodology to identify 8 groups of countries characterized by economic development level, net trade in agricultural products, and selected variables related to agriculture and food situation. As shown by this study, the degree to which food security is ensured with domestic supply varies strongly across the globe. Domestic production provides a foundation for food security in wealthy countries, usually located in areas with favorable conditions for agriculture (including North America, Australia, New Zealand, Kazakhstan) and in countries which, though characterized by a relatively small area of arable land per capita, demonstrate high production intensity (mainly European countries). International trade largely contributes to food security in Middle East and North African countries as well as in selected South American countries which are net importers of food products. The most problematic food situation continues to affect Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higher densities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue that detailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variables are indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchers working in land change science with important insights into urban densification process modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify the current trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed action to promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanization definitely., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Phenology plays an important role in many human-nature interactions, but these seasonal patterns are often overlooked in conservation. Here, we provide the first broad exploration of seasonal patterns of interest in nature across many species and cultures. Using data from Wikipedia, a large online encyclopedia, we analyzed 2.33 billion pageviews to articles for 31,751 species across 245 languages. We show that seasonality plays an important role in how and when people interact with plants and animals online. In total, over 25% of species in our data set exhibited a seasonal pattern in at least one of their language-edition pages, and seasonality is significantly more prevalent in pages for plants and animals than it is in a random selection of Wikipedia articles. Pageview seasonality varies across taxonomic clades in ways that reflect observable patterns in phenology, with groups such as insects and flowering plants having higher seasonality than mammals. Differences between Wikipedia language editions are significant; pages in languages spoken at higher latitudes exhibit greater seasonality overall, and species seldom show the same pattern across multiple language editions. These results have relevance to conservation policy formulation and to improving our understanding of what drives human interest in biodiversity., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The expanding human global footprint and growing demand for freshwater have placed tremendous stress on inland aquatic ecosystems. Aichi Target 10 of the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to minimize anthropogenic pressures affecting vulnerable ecosystems, and pressure interactions are increasingly being incorporated into environmental management and climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore how climate change, overfishing, forest disturbance, and invasive species pressures interact to affect inland lake walleye (Sander vitreus) populations. Walleye support subsistence, recreational, and commercial fisheries and are one of most sought-after freshwater fish species in North America. Using data from 444 lakes situated across an area of 475 000 km 2 in Ontario, Canada, we apply a novel statistical tool, R-INLA, to determine how walleye biomass deficit (carrying capacity-observed biomass) is impacted by multiple pressures. Individually, angling activity and the presence of invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were positively related to biomass deficits. In combination, zebra mussel presence interacted negatively and antagonistically with angling activity and percentage decrease in watershed mature forest cover. Velocity of climate change in growing degree days above 5°C and decrease in mature forest cover interacted to negatively affect walleye populations. Our study demonstrates how multiple pressure evaluations can be conducted for hundreds of populations to identify influential pressures and vulnerable ecosystems. Understanding pressure interactions is necessary to guide management and climate change adaptation strategies, and achieve global biodiversity targets., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Reef sharks are vulnerable predators experiencing severe population declines mainly due to overexploitation. However, beyond direct exploitation, human activities can produce indirect or sub-lethal effects such as behavioral alterations. Such alterations are well known for terrestrial fauna but poorly documented for marine species. Using an extensive sampling of 367 stereo baited underwater videos systems, we show modifications in grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) occurrence and feeding behavior along a marked gradient of isolation from humans across the New Caledonian archipelago (South-Western Pacific). The probability of occurrence decreased by 68.9% between wilderness areas (more than 25 hours travel time from the capital city) and impacted areas while the few individuals occurring in impacted areas exhibited cautious behavior. We also show that only large no-entry reserves (above 150 km²) can protect the behavior of grey reef sharks found in the wilderness. Influencing the fitness, human linked behavioral alterations should be taken into account for management strategies to ensure the persistence of populations.

The Brazilian Cerrado, a hotspot and the largest savannah in the world, has been undergoing intense changes in land use for urbanization. The creation and maintenance of urban parks and public squares is one efficient biodiversity conservation strategy in urbanized landscapes. In this study, our objective was to evaluate the potential of urban parks with native vegetation for conservation of flower chafer beetles (Coleoptera: Cetoniinae), a beetle group usually used as a bioindicator in African landscapes, in Brazilian Cerrado. We sampled Cetoniinae beetles using aerial fruit-baited traps, every 2 wk from January to December 2014 in 10 areas of Cerrado in Aquidauana, MS, Brazil. We compared the species richness, abundance, biomass, and species composition between six 'natural reserve' areas (outside the urban matrix) and four 'urban park' areas (within the urban matrix), and identified specialist species of each habitat type. A total 508 individuals of nine species were captured. The abundance, species richness, and biomass were similar between natural reserve and urban park. However, species composition differed among the habitats. Gymnetis flava (Weber) was classified as an urban park specialist, while Euphoria lurida (Fabricius), and Hoplopyga liturata (Olivier) were classified as natural reserve specialists. Our results demonstrate that urban parks conserve the abundance, biomass and species richness of flower chafer beetles in the Brazilian Cerrado. In this context, our results suggest that the maintenance of the urban park with native vegetation can be an efficient strategy for the conservation of Cetoniinae beetles in the urban matrix in the Brazilian Cerrado.

Urbanization has brought notable benefits for cities, but has also resulted in severe and diverse challenges in China. Previous studies have contributed to the definitions and evaluation of urbanization. However, there remain a great deal of ambiguities regarding urban comprehensive carrying capacity, and its measurable indicators still need further exploration given the urban development. This study aims to explore a model for evaluating urban comprehensive carrying capacity and thus to promote urban development. A total of 48 indicators which fell into 8 subsystems were identified to evaluate the urban comprehensive carrying capacity through literature reviews and interviews. The indicator set was developed for evaluation indicator selecting. Meanwhile, the dynamic system was explored, and an evaluation model based on the entire array polygon method was designed to evaluate urban comprehensive carrying capacity. Finally, a case study was conducted to provide suggestions for the decision-maker to implement the evaluation model. The results of this study show that the evaluation indicator system was dynamic due to urban development. Meanwhile, the model of the entire array polygon method was able to effectively evaluate urban comprehensive carrying capacity through the case study. Furthermore, this study found that there is an imbalance among subsystems in urban development according to the standard deviation. The findings are useful for setting up a benchmark framework for urban sustainability and providing an evaluation and monitoring model for decision maker to improve the urban carrying capacity., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Tropical forests continue to undergo a rapid transformation. The expansion of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations has been reported as a major driver of forest loss, linked to a boom in market demand. Distant commodity markets have spurred a surge of large-scale economic land concessions granted throughout tropical Southeast Asia. Using satellite imagery, we show the impact of rubber tree plantations on Cambodian forest cover and analyse how annual forest-to-rubber conversion rates relate to global rubber prices from 2001 to 2015. We found that 23.5 ± 1.8% of national forest cover was cleared in this period, with 23.2 ± 3.6% of cleared forest converted to rubber plantations. Annual forest-to-rubber conversion rates closely correlated with global rubber prices, with a time lag of 8-9 months (Pearson's r = 0.93). Our results reveal a strong link between global commodity markets and tropical forest loss, particularly in countries with land policies geared towards rapid development.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)