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Specified dynamics (SD) schemes relax the circulation in climate models toward a reference meteorology to simulate historical variability. These simulations are widely used to isolate the dynamical contributions to variability and trends in trace gas species. However, it is not clear if trends in the stratospheric overturning circulation are properly reproduced by SD schemes. This study assesses numerous SD schemes and modeling choices in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) to determine a set of best practices for reproducing interannual variability and trends in tropical stratospheric upwelling estimated by reanalyses. Nudging toward the reanalysis meteorology as is typically done in SD simulations expectedly changes the model's mean upwelling compared to its free-running state, but does not accurately reproduce upwelling trends present in the underlying reanalysis. In contrast, nudging to anomalies from the climatological winds or from the zonal mean winds and temperatures preserves WACCM's climatology and better reproduces trends in stratospheric upwelling. An SD scheme's performance in simulating the acceleration of the shallow branch of the mean meridional circulation from 1980-2017 hinges on its ability to simulate the downward shift of subtropical lower stratospheric wave momentum forcing. Key to this is not nudging the zonal-mean temperature field. Gravity wave momentum forcing, which drives a substantial fraction of the upwelling in WACCM, cannot be constrained by nudging and presents an upper-limit on the performance of these schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational and modeling studies suggest that Earth's tropical belt has widened over the late 20th century and will continue to widen throughout the 21st century. Yet estimates of tropical width variations differ significantly across studies. This uncertainty, to an unknown degree, is partly due to the large variety of methods used in studies of the tropical width. Here, methods for eight commonly-used metrics of the tropical width are implemented in a Tropical-width Diagnostics code package (TropD) in the MATLAB programming language. To consolidate the various methods, the operations used in each of the implemented methods are reduced to two basic calculations: finding the latitude of a zero crossing, and finding the latitude of a maximum. A detailed description of the methods implemented in the code and of the code syntax is provided, followed by a method sensitivity analysis for each of the metrics. The analysis provides information on how to reduce the methodological component of the uncertainty associated with fundamental aspects of the calculations, such as monthly vs. seasonal averaging biases, grid dependence, sensitivity to noise, and sensitivity to threshold criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the sources and evolution of aerosols is crucial for constraining the impacts that aerosols have on a global scale. An unanswered question in atmospheric science is the source and evolution of the Antarctic aerosol population. Previous work over the continent has primarily utilized low resolution aerosol filters (coupled with off-line ion chromatography) to answer questions about Antarctic aerosols. Bulk aerosol sampling has been useful in identifying seasonal cycles in the aerosol populations, especially in populations that have been attributed to Southern Ocean phytoplankton emissions. However, real-time, high resolution chemical composition data is necessary to identify the mechanisms and exact timing of changes in the Antarctic aerosol populations. The recent 2ODIAC (2-Season Ozone Depletion and Interaction with Aerosols Campaign) field campaign saw the first ever deployment of a real-time, high resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (SP-AMS or AMS) to the continent. Data obtained from the AMS, and a suite of other aerosol, gas-phase, and meteorological instruments, are presented here. In particular, this manuscript focuses on the aerosol population over coastal Antarctica and the evolution of that population in Austral Spring. Results indicate that there exists a sulfate mode in Antarctica that is externally mixed to the rest of the aerosol population with a mass mode vacuum aerodynamic diameter of 250 nm. Springtime increases in sulfate aerosol are observed and attributed to biogenic sources, in agreement with previous research identifying phytoplankton activity as the source of the aerosol. Furthermore, the total Antarctic aerosol population is shown to undergo three distinct phases during the winter to summer transition. The first phase is dominated by highly aged sulfate particles comprising the majority of the aerosol population at low wind speed. The second phase, previously unidentified, is the generation of a sub-250 nm aerosol population of unknown composition. The second phase appears as a transitional phase during the extended polar sunrise. The third phase is marked by an increased importance of biogenically-derived sulfate to the total aerosol population (photolysis of dimethyl sulfate and methanesulfonic acid [DMS and MSA]). The increased importance of MSA is identified both through the direct, real-time measurement of aerosol MSA and through the use of positive matrix factorization on the sulfur containing ions in the high-resolution mass spectral data. Given the importance of sub-250 nm particles, the aforementioned second phase suggests that early Austral spring is the season where new particle formation mechanisms are likely to have the largest contribution to the aerosol population in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, none have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of three in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of intermodel differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally- and hemispherically-asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 15 years, numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth's Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward over the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. Early estimates of this tropical widening from satellite observations and reanalyses varied from 0.25° to 3° latitude per decade, while estimates from global climate models show widening at the lower end of the observed range. In 2016, two working groups, the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project, were formed to synthesize current understanding of the magnitude, causes, and impacts of the recent tropical widening evident in observations. These working groups concluded that the large rates of observed tropical widening noted by earlier studies resulted from their use of metrics that poorly capture changes in the Hadley circulation, or from the use of reanalyses that contained spurious trends. Accounting for these issues reduces the range of observed expansion rates to 0.25°-0.5° latitude decade-1--within the range from model simulations. Models indicate that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere tropical widening is consistent with natural variability, whereas increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone likely played an important role in Southern Hemisphere widening. Whatever the cause or rate of expansion, understanding the regional impacts of tropical widening requires additional work, as different forcings can produce different regional patterns of widening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HT-HH) volcanic eruptions on January 13 and 15, 2022, produced a plume with the highest signal in stratospheric aerosol optical depth observed since the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Suites of balloon-borne instruments on a series of launches from Réunion Island intercepted the HT-HH plume between 7 and 10 d of the eruptions, yielding observations of the aerosol number and size distribution and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and water vapor (H2O) concentrations. The measurements reveal an unexpected abundance of large particles in the plume, constrain the total sulfur injected to approximately 0.2 Tg, provide information on the altitude of the injection, and indicate that the formation of sulfuric acid aerosol was complete within 3 wk. Large H2O enhancements contributed as much as ~30% to ambient aerosol surface area and likely accelerated SO2 oxidation and aerosol formation rates in the plume to approximately three times faster than under normal stratospheric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth's Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models' historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the rapid ozone depletion observed in the stratosphere following the Hunga Tonga Eruption, which injected a significant amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. Topics discussed include the impact of increased humidity, radiative cooling, and the formation of active chlorine species, leading to the rapid destruction of ozone molecules within the volcanic plume.

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K -1 . Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K -1 ) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2023.)