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Detailed analysis of technological learning of energy technologies is scarce. For floating wind, this is missing altogether. In this study, we applied experience curve and bottom-up cost modeling methodologies and assessed the long-term cost reduction potential and contribution factors of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind in their mature markets. Further, to emphasize the role of strongly varying site characteristics of offshore wind farms and their influences, the grid connection cost is separately discussed from the total technology costs (Capital Expenditure and LCOE). Our assessment shows that, excluding grid connection costs, fixed-bottom offshore wind LCOE is 40 €/MWh at 31 GW cumulative capacity (2023–2024) and decline to 28 ± 3 €/MWh by 100 GW. Floating wind LCOE is 123 €/MWh at 1 GW cumulative capacity (2027 – 2030) but decline to 33 ± 6 €/MWh by 100 GW. Moreover, floating wind can achieve cost parity (i.e., 40 €/MWh, excl. grid connection cost) by deploying 21 GW, requiring 44 billion € of learning investment in the form of subsidies to compensate the price gap for the technology in the energy system. We also conclude that grid cost forms a substantial portion of total offshore wind cost, and an integrated offshore grid can efficiently future wind farms and reduce costs. Lastly, we compared our assessment with literature and found that fixed-bottom cost developments are commonly underestimated and the near-term developments for floating wind are overestimated due to limited understanding of component-level cost developments and developing financing conditions.

The electrification of naphtha cracking for ethylene production could reduce the associated CO2 emissions but would require significantly larger electricity consumption. Within this context, the flexible operation of electric crackers opens opportunities for improved integration with the future electricity system. In this work, we developed a computationally efficient mixed-integer linear programming model to investigate flexibility in electric crackers, exploring the effect of operational parameters, such as operating envelope, ramping time, and start-up/shut-down time, on costs and emissions. We optimized three electric cracker systems: two with grid electricity consumption (with/without batteries) and one with electricity supply from dedicated renewable technologies. We find that the operating envelope of the cracker has the strongest impact on cost savings, enabling up to 5.5% reduction when using flexible electricity from the grid and 58% for systems with direct coupling to renewables. Moreover, the flexible operation of electric crackers relying on the electricity grid enhances the CO2 emission savings, achieving a 90.4% emission reduction against 54.6% of the constant operation case. Finally, we find that for direct coupling with renewables, electric crackers need to be flexible to avoid suboptimal oversizing of renewable technologies and especially unrealistic battery capacities.

Introduction: Cities are taking up services of social importance under the (re)municipalisation movement. The Dutch government embarked on an ambitious heat transition and proposed in 2022 to make all district heating projects public or semi-public, with a majority public share. This proposal has sparked intense debates among groups in favour of and against a shift to public ownership. Methods: This study assessed 16 public projects through qualitative research and uncovered the arguments for and against public ownership among key public and private stakeholders. Results: While public ownership is deemed necessary to meet social objectives and address the shortcomings of private models, critical views question the economic performance and inappropriate political choices in some public projects. These critical views propose alternative ways to safeguard public values, such as ensuring affordability and meeting climate goals. Despite disagreements, public and private actors recognise the shared responsibility and the importance of the other's role. They agree that the central government's proposed mandate for public ownership may limit flexibility at the local level and prevent other effective configurations like public-private partnerships with equal public-private shares. Discussion: Reflecting on the study findings, it is debatable whether mandating public ownership nationwide, as proposed by the Dutch government, should become the approach to tackle current challenges instead of allowing more flexibility. The upcoming Heat Act may reduce key issues justifying public ownership, such as affordability, cherry-picking and the lack of transparency of private projects. Further research is needed to determine whether public ownership would enhance citizens' support and speed up realisation. Public ownership may still be necessary if social and cost benefits outweigh those from other configurations or long-term concession contracts are too risky. Implementing regulatio

The Loess Plateau, with a large area of marginal land, holds the potential to produce 62–106 Tg per year of switchgrass biomass; however, the economic feasibility of producing bioenergy in the region is unclear. The farm-gate feedstock production (FGFP) cost of switchgrass was calculated in a spatially explicit way by taking the geographic variation in crop yield, soil properties, land quality, and input costs into consideration in order to evaluate the economic performance of bioenergy production. Cost–supply curves were constructed to explore the energy supply potential of switchgrass feedstock. The calculations were conducted using ArcGIS in a 1 km grid and all the evaluations were conducted under different agricultural management practice (AMP) scenarios in parallel. The FGFP costs showed significant spatial variation ranging from 95 to 7373 CNY (Chinese Yuan) per tonne−1 and that the most economically desirable areas are scattered in the south and southeast region. The weighted average FGFP costs are 710, 1125, and 1596 CNY per tonne−1 for small bale (SB), large bale (LB), and chipping (CP) harvest methods, respectively. The projected energy supply potential is 1927 PJ (Petajoules) per year−1, of which 30–93% can be supplied below the market prices of different fossil fuels according to feedstock formats. Compared to current biomass residual pricing, 50–66 Tg (Teragrams) switchgrass feedstock is competitive. The results demonstrated that the Loess Plateau holds the potential to produce bioenergy that is economically feasible. This study provides a methodological framework for spatially explicit evaluation of the economic performance of perennial energy crops. Detailed information obtained from this study can be used to select the optimal locations and AMPs to produce feedstock production at minimum cost.

Whether the use of industrial wood pellets for bioenergy is part of the problem of climate change or part of the solution to climate change has been heavily debated in the academic and political arena. The uncertainty around this topic is impeded by contradicting scientific assessments of carbon impacts of wood pellet use. Spatially explicit quantification of the potential carbon impacts of increased industrial wood pellet demand, including both indirect market and land-use change effects, is required to understand potential negative impacts on carbon stored in the landscape. Studies that meet these requirements are scarce. This study assesses the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape in the Southern US spatially explicitly and includes the effects of demand for other wood products and land-use types. The analysis is based on IPCC calculations and highly detailed survey-based biomass data for different forest types. We compare a trend of increased wood pellet demand between 2010 and 2030 with a stable trend in wood pellet demand after 2010, thereby quantifying the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape. This study shows that modest increases in wood pellets demand (from 0.5 Mt in 2010 to 12.1 Mt in 2030), compared to a scenario without increase in wood pellet demand (stable demand at 0.5 Mt), may result in carbon stock gains of 103-229 Mt in the landscape in the Southern US. These carbon stock increases occur due to a reduction in natural forest loss and an increase in pine plantation area compared to a stable-demand scenario. Projected carbon impacts of changes in wood pellet demand were smaller than carbon effects of trends in the timber market. We introduce a new methodological framework to include both indirect market and land-use change effects into carbon calculations in the landscape.

Participatory energy planning at the local level engages citizens, builds legitimacy and trust, and increases successful implementation of renewable energies. In the context of heat planning, technology choices highly vary depending on the local context and social conditions and including social input therefore benefits the planning process. This research adds to the current literature, which lacks concrete examples and verified approaches that clarify what the guiding principles of participatory energy planning are and how the opportunities and challenges can be dealt with. This paper elaborates on these opportunities and challenges and proposes a process design, using multiple tools (a survey, an Information-choice Questionnaire, and workshops) to collect the social input that is necessary to make technology choices in a participatory manner. The process design is applied and tested in a case study of a Dutch neighbourhood and lessons learned are drafted as a basis for further research.