Search

Background: Dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel plus low-dose aspirin has not been studied in a broad population of patients at high risk for atherothrombotic events.Methods: We randomly assigned 15,603 patients with either clinically evident cardiovascular disease or multiple risk factors to receive clopidogrel (75 mg per day) plus low-dose aspirin (75 to 162 mg per day) or placebo plus low-dose aspirin and followed them for a median of 28 months. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes.Results: The rate of the primary efficacy end point was 6.8 percent with clopidogrel plus aspirin and 7.3 percent with placebo plus aspirin (relative risk, 0.93; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.05; P=0.22). The respective rate of the principal secondary efficacy end point, which included hospitalizations for ischemic events, was 16.7 percent and 17.9 percent (relative risk, 0.92; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.995; P=0.04), and the rate of severe bleeding was 1.7 percent and 1.3 percent (relative risk, 1.25; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.61 percent; P=0.09). The rate of the primary end point among patients with multiple risk factors was 6.6 percent with clopidogrel and 5.5 percent with placebo (relative risk, 1.2; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.59; P=0.20) and the rate of death from cardiovascular causes also was higher with clopidogrel (3.9 percent vs. 2.2 percent, P=0.01). In the subgroup with clinically evident atherothrombosis, the rate was 6.9 percent with clopidogrel and 7.9 percent with placebo (relative risk, 0.88; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.998; P=0.046).Conclusions: In this trial, there was a suggestion of benefit with clopidogrel treatment in patients with symptomatic atherothrombosis and a suggestion of harm in patients with multiple risk factors. Overall, clopidogrel plus aspirin was not significantly more effective than aspirin alone in reducing the rate of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00050817.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Insulin resistance and visceral adiposity are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In this report, we describe the methods of the IRAS Family Study, which was designed to identify the genetic and environmental risk factors for insulin resistance and visceral adiposity.Methods: Families from two ethnic groups (African American and Hispanic) have been recruited from three clinical sites. Blood samples for DNA as well as other standard measures were collected. A CT scan (visceral adiposity) and a frequently sampled glucose tolerance test (insulin resistance) were performed. Preliminary estimates of heritability for indirect measures related to insulin resistance and visceral adiposity were obtained using a variance components approach in the first 93 families (approximately 1000 individuals).Results: Estimates of heritability ranged from low (0.08) for fasting insulin and HOMA, to moderate (0.28) for fasting glucose, to high (0.54) for BMI. After adjustment for age, gender and ethnicity, all heritability estimates were significantly greater than zero (p < 0.05).Conclusions: These results are consistent with the expectation that intermediate measures of insulin resistance and visceral adiposity are heritable, and that the IRAS Family Study has statistical power to detect these intermediate phenotypes of type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet is inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. Metabolic changes due to DASH adherence and their potential relationship with incident T2DM have not been described. The objective is to determine metabolite clusters associated with adherence to a DASH-like diet in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study cohort and explore if the clusters predicted 5-year incidence of T2DM. The current study included 570 non-diabetic multi-ethnic participants aged 40–69 years. Adherence to a DASH-like diet was determined a priori through an eighty-point scale for absolute intakes of the eight DASH food groups. Quantitative measurements of eighty-seven metabolites (acylcarnitines, amino acids, bile acids, sterols and fatty acids) were obtained at baseline. Metabolite clusters related to DASH adherence were determined through partial least squares (PLS) analysis using R. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to explore the associations between metabolite clusters and incident T2DM. A group of acylcarnitines and fatty acids loaded strongly on the two components retained under PLS. Among strongly loading metabolites, a select group of acylcarnitines had over 50 % of their individual variance explained by the PLS model. Component 2 was inversely associated with incident T2DM (OR: 0·89; (95 % CI 0·80, 0·99), P -value = 0·043) after adjustment for demographic and metabolic covariates. Component 1 was not associated with T2DM risk (OR: 1·02; (95 % CI 0·88, 1·19), P -value = 0·74). Adherence to a DASH-type diet may contribute to reduced T2DM risk in part through modulations in acylcarnitine and fatty acid physiology.

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) improves the discriminatory ability of risk-prediction models in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but is not yet used in clinical practice. We assessed the discriminatory strength of NT-proBNP by itself for death and cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with T2DM. Methods and Results Cox proportional hazards were used to create a base model formed by 20 variables. The discriminatory ability of the base model was compared with that of NT-proBNP alone and with NT-proBNP added, using C-statistics. We studied 5509 patients (with complete data) of 8561 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease who were enrolled in the ALTITUDE (Aliskiren in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints) trial. During a median 2.6-year follow-up period, 469 patients died and 768 had a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure hospitalization). NT-proBNP alone was as discriminatory as the base model for predicting death (C-statistic, 0.745 versus 0.744, P =0.95) and the cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.723 versus 0.731, P =0.37). When NT-proBNP was added, it increased the predictive ability of the base model for death (C-statistic, 0.779 versus 0.744, P <0.001) and for cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.763 versus 0.731, P <0.001). Conclusions In high-risk patients with T2DM, NT-proBNP by itself demonstrated discriminatory ability similar to a multivariable model in predicting both death and cardiovascular events and should be considered for risk stratification. Registration URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00549757.

Aims/hypothesis: The self-administered Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI) is used to diagnose diabetic peripheral neuropathy. We examined whether the MNSI might also provide information on risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes., Methods: In this post hoc analysis of the Aliskiren Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardio-Renal Endpoints (ALTITUDE) trial, we divided 8463 participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD) into independent training (n = 3252) and validation (n = 5211) sets. In the training set, we identified specific questions that were independently associated with a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, non-fatal myocardial infarction/stroke, heart failure hospitalisation). We then evaluated the performance of these questions in the validation set., Results: In the training set, three questions ('Are your legs numb?', 'Have you ever had an open sore on your foot?' and 'Do your legs hurt when you walk?') were significantly associated with the cardiovascular composite outcome. In the validation set, after multivariable adjustment for key covariates, one or more positive responses (n = 3079, 59.1%) was associated with a higher risk of the cardiovascular composite outcome (HR 1.54 [95% CI 1.28, 1.85], p < 0.001), heart failure hospitalisation (HR 1.74 [95% CI 1.29, 2.35], p < 0.001), myocardial infarction (HR 1.81 [95% CI 1.23, 2.69], p = 0.003), stroke (HR 1.75 [95% CI 1.20, 2.56], p = 0.003) and three-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke) (HR 1.49 [95% CI 1.20, 1.85], p < 0.001) relative to no positive responses to all questions. Associations were stronger if participants answered positively to all three questions (n = 552, 11%). The addition of the total number of affirmative responses to existing models significantly improved Harrell's C statistic for the cardiovascular composite outcome (0.70 vs 0.71, p = 0.010), continuous net reclassification improvement (+22% [+10%, +31%], p = 0.027) and integrated discrimination improvement (+0.9% [+0.4%, +2.1%], p = 0.007)., Conclusions/interpretation: We identified three questions from the MNSI that provide additional prognostic information for individuals with type 2 diabetes and CKD and/or CVD. If externally validated, these questions may be integrated into the clinical history to augment prediction of CV events in high-risk individuals with type 2 diabetes.

Recent evidence has documented distinct effects of individual saturated FAs (SFAs) on cardiometabolic outcomes, with potential protective effects from odd- and very long-chain SFAs (VLSFAs). Cross-sectional and prospective associations of individual serum SFAs (12:0, 14:0, 15:0, 16:0, 18:0, 20:0, 22:0, and total SFA) with proinflammatory biomarkers and adiponectin were investigated in 555 adults from the IRAS. Principal component analysis (PCA) of proinflammatory markers yielded three clusters: principal component (PC) 1: fibrinogen, white cell count, C-reactive protein; PC 2: plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), TNF-α, IL-18; PC 3: IL-6 and IL-8. Cross-sectional analyses on proinflammatory PCs and adiponectin, and prospective analyses on 5 year PAI-1 and fibrinogen concentrations were conducted with multiple regression. Total SFA and 16:0 were positively associated with PC 1 and PC 2, and negatively associated with adiponectin. The 14:0 was positively associated with PC 1 and negatively associated with adiponectin. In contrast, 15:0, 20:0, and 22:0 were negatively associated with PC 2, and 20:0 and 22:0 were positively associated with adiponectin. The 18:0 was negatively associated with PC 3. Prospectively, 15:0, 18:0, 20:0, and 22:0 were negatively associated with 5 year PAI-1 concentrations. The results demonstrate that individual SFAs have distinct roles in subclinical inflammation, highlighting the unique metabolic impacts of individual SFAs., (Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.)

Objectives: We aimed to compare the associations of directly measured plasma free 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and total 25(OH)D concentrations with insulin sensitivity (SI) and β-cell function in nondiabetic Hispanics and African Americans. We hypothesized that directly measured free 25(OH)D would be more strongly associated with these measures of glucose homeostasis and that associations would differ by race., Design: We studied 1189 nondiabetic participants in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study Family Study using data from baseline examinations from 2000 to 2002. SI, acute insulin response, and disposition index (DI) were determined from frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests. Plasma free and total 25(OH)D concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and radioimmunoassay, respectively., Results: The median concentrations of plasma free 25(OH)D were 3.46 pg/mL for Hispanics and 2.17 pg/mL for African Americans (P < 0.0001), whereas the median concentrations of plasma total 25(OH)D were 16 ng/mL for Hispanics and 10 ng/mL for African Americans (P < 0.0001). Plasma free and total 25(OH)D were both positively associated with SI and DI in generalized estimating equations adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors. After further adjustment with body mass index, the associations were no longer statistically significant, except for a significant association between plasma free 25(OH)D and SI. There was no effect modification by ethnicity on any of the exposure-outcome associations., Conclusions: Our data showed that plasma free 25(OH)D had a slightly stronger association with SI compared with plasma total 25(OH)D, although the difference was modest and there were no marked differences in the associations between Hispanics and African Americans., (Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society)

Aims: To examine the effect of valsartan on kidney outcomes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)., Methods: In a double-blind randomized trial, 9306 patients with IGT were assigned to valsartan (160 mg daily) or placebo. The co-primary endpoints were the development of diabetes and two composite cardiovascular outcomes. Prespecified renal endpoints included: the composite of renal death, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or doubling of serum creatinine; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; hospitalization for renal failure; and progression from normoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria, microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria, and normoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria. The median follow-up was 6.2 years., Results: Valsartan reduced the incidence of diabetes but not cardiovascular events. In the valsartan group, 25/4631 patients (0.5%), vs 26/4675 (0.6%) patients in the placebo group, developed ESRD or experienced doubling of serum creatinine (hazard ratio [HR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-1.66; P  = .87). Few patients in either group developed an eGFR of ≤30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 or had a renal hospitalization. Fewer patients on valsartan (237/4084 [5.8%]) than on placebo (342/4092 [8.4%]) developed microalbuminuria (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.57-0.80; P  < .0001), and fewer valsartan-treated patients developed macroalbuminuria. Overall, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) was 11% lower with valsartan (95% CI 8-13; P  < .0001) and 9% lower (95% CI 6-11; P  < .0001) after adjusting for both glucose and blood pressure., Conclusions: The effect of valsartan on UACR was not wholly explained by change in blood pressure or glucose. Valsartan reduced the incidence of microalbuminuria in IGT without increasing the incidence of hyperkalaemia or renal dysfunction compared with placebo., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aims: Predicting incident diabetes could inform treatment strategies for diabetes prevention, but the incremental benefit of recalculating risk using updated risk factors is unknown. We used baseline and 1-year data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) Trial to compare diabetes risk prediction using historical or updated clinical information., Methods: Among non-diabetic participants reaching 1year of follow-up in NAVIGATOR, we compared the performance of the published baseline diabetes risk model with a "landmark" model incorporating risk factors updated at the 1-year time point. The C-statistic was used to compare model discrimination and reclassification analyses to demonstrate the relative accuracy of diabetes prediction., Results: A total of 7527 participants remained non-diabetic at 1year, and 2375 developed diabetes during a median of 4years of follow-up. The C-statistic for the landmark model was higher (0.73 [95% CI 0.72-0.74]) than for the baseline model (0.67 [95% CI 0.66-0.68]). The landmark model improved classification to modest (<20%), moderate (20%-40%), and high (>40%) 4-year risk, with a net reclassification index of 0.14 (95% CI 0.10-0.16) and an integrated discrimination index of 0.01 (95% CI 0.003-0.013)., Conclusions: Using historical clinical values to calculate diabetes risk reduces the accuracy of prediction. Diabetes risk calculations should be routinely updated to inform discussions about diabetes prevention at both the patient and population health levels., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: N-acetylglucosamine/galactosamine (GlycA) and sialic acid (GlycB) moieties of glycosylated serum proteins are nonspecific measures of inflammation, but conclusive data on their relationship with insulin resistance or insulin secretion are missing. Therefore, we aimed to examine the relation of GlycA, GlycB, and C-reactive protein (CRP) to direct measures of insulin sensitivity (insulin sensitivity index [S I ]) and insulin secretion (acute insulin response [AIR])., Research Design and Methods: This study used cross-sectional analyses and included 1,225 participants with and without type 2 diabetes in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS). S I and AIR were measured using the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test, and GlycA and GlycB were measured using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy., Results: GlycA and GlycB had a strong correlation with CRP ( r = 0.60 [ P < 0.001] and r = 0.46 [ P < 0.001], respectively). In a linear regression model with both GlycA and CRP as independent variables, GlycA (β × 1 SD, -0.04 ± 0.02; P < 0.01) and CRP (-0.06 ± 0.02; P < 0.001) were independently associated with S I even after adjusting for demographics, smoking, physical activity, plasma glucose, and BMI. However, neither CRP nor GlycA had an independent relationship with AIR., Conclusions: GlycA may complement CRP in evaluating the relationship between inflammation, glucose tolerance, and insulin resistance., (© 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: Recent studies using untargeted metabolomics approaches have suggested that plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) are associated with incident diabetes. However, little is known about the role of plasma BCAAs in metabolic abnormalities underlying diabetes and whether these relationships are consistent across ethnic populations at high risk for diabetes. We investigated the associations of BCAAs with insulin sensitivity (SI), acute insulin response (AIR), and metabolic clearance of insulin (MCRI) in a multiethnic cohort., Research Design and Methods: In 685 participants without diabetes of the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS) (290 Caucasians, 165 African Americans, and 230 Hispanics), we measured plasma BCAAs (sum of valine, leucine, and isoleucine) by mass spectrometry and SI, AIR, and MCRI by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests., Results: Elevated plasma BCAAs were inversely associated with SI and MCRI and positively associated with fasting insulin in regression models adjusted for potential confounders (β = -0.0012 [95% CI -0.0018, -0.00059], P < 0.001 for SI; β = -0.0013 [95% CI -0.0018, -0.00082], P < 0.001 for MCRI; and β = 0.0015 [95% CI 0.0008, 0.0023], P < 0.001 for fasting insulin). The association of BCAA with SI was significantly modified by ethnicity, with the association only being significant in Caucasians and Hispanics. Elevated plasma BCAAs were associated with incident diabetes in Caucasians and Hispanics (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio per 1-SD increase in plasma BCAAs: 1.67 [95% CI 1.21, 2.29], P = 0.002) but not in African Americans. Plasma BCAAs were not associated with SI-adjusted AIR., Conclusions: Plasma BCAAs are associated with incident diabetes and underlying metabolic abnormalities, although the associations were generally stronger in Caucasians and Hispanics., (© 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Aims: To examine the incremental usefulness of adding alanine aminotransferase to established risk factors for predicting future diabetes., Methods: The study population of the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study included 724 people aged 40-69 years. We excluded people who had excessive alcohol intake or were treated with lipid-lowering agents. Incident diabetes was assessed after a mean follow-up period of 5.2 years., Results: Alanine aminotransferase had a non-linear relationship with incident diabetes (Wald chi-squared test, P < 0.001; P for linearity = 0.005) independent of demographic variables, family history of diabetes, BMI and fasting glucose; therefore, we used Youden's J statistic to dichotomize alanine aminotransferase [threshold ≥ 0.43 μkat/L ( ≥ 26 IU/l)]. Dichotomized alanine aminotransferase increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.805 vs. 0.823; P = 0.007) of a model that included demographic variables, family history of diabetes, BMI and fasting glucose as independent variables. The net reclassification improvement was 9.6% (95% CI 1.8-17.4; P = 0.016), and the integrated discrimination improvement was 0.031 (95% CI 0.011-0.050; P = 0.002). Dichotomized alanine aminotransferase reclassified a net of 9.6% of individuals more appropriately., Conclusions: Alanine aminotransferase may be useful for classifying individuals who are at risk of future diabetes after accounting for the effect of other risk factors, including family history, adiposity and plasma glucose., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: None declared., (© 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.)

Aims: To investigate whether the degree of albuminuria reduction observed in the ALTITUDE trial is associated with renal and cardiovascular protection, and secondly, whether the reduction in albuminuria was too small to afford clinical benefit., Methods: In a post hoc analysis of the ALTITUDE trial in 8561 patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular disease we examined the effect of albuminuria changes at 6 months on renal and cardiovascular outcomes using Cox proportional hazard regression., Results: The median change in albuminuria in the first 6 months in the aliskiren arm of the trial was -12% (25th to 75th percentile: -48.7&#95;to&#95; +41.9%) and 0.0% (25th to 75th percentile: -40.2&#95;to&#95;55%) in the placebo arm. Changes in albuminuria in the first 6 months were linearly associated with renal and cardiovascular endpoints: a >30% reduction in albuminuria in the first 6 months was associated with a 62% reduction in renal risk and a 25% reduction in cardiovascular risk compared with an increase in albuminuria. The association between changes at 6 months in albuminuria and renal or cardiovascular endpoints was similar in the two treatment groups (p for interaction >0.1 for both endpoints)., Conclusions: The addition of aliskiren to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker therapy resulted in albuminuria changes that were associated with renal and cardiovascular risk changes. This did not translate into renal or cardiovascular protection because the overall reduction in albuminuria in the aliskiren arm was too small and nearly similar to that in the placebo arm., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aims/hypothesis: The triacylglycerol (TG)-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio has been shown to detect insulin resistance. However, the added predictive value of a more comprehensive assessment of lipoprotein composition is unknown., Methods: We analysed cross-sectional data from 882 non-diabetic participants in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS). Lipoproteins were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Determined by the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test, insulin resistance was defined as the lowest sex-specific quartile of insulin sensitivity., Results: The AUC of the receiver operating characteristic curve of HDL-cholesterol and TG levels for detecting insulin resistance was similar to that of the TG-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio (0.676 vs 0.673; p = 0.685), but smaller than the AUC of NMR-detected lipoproteins (0.676 vs 0.745; p < 0.001). NMR lipoproteins added discriminative value to HDL-cholesterol and TG levels (net reclassification improvement of 40.0%; p < 0.001; and integrated discrimination improvement of 9.5%; p < 0.001), with net benefit within predicted probabilities of between 10% and 50% by Vickers' decision-curve analysis. We also demonstrated additive value to demographic variables, BMI and levels of fasting glucose, TG, and HDL-cholesterol (net reclassification improvement of 14.0%; p < 0.001; and integrated discrimination improvement of 4.5%; p < 0.001)., Conclusions/interpretation: NMR lipoproteins, which can be measured in the fasting state, add information to the TG and HDL-cholesterol ratio across a broad range on insulin resistance. Depending on the other risk factors of insulin resistance that are incorporated, NMR lipoproteins permit the correct reclassification of an additional 14-40% of individuals.

Aims: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at high risk of developing cardiovascular (CV) and renal disease. We examined the burden of, and risk of death following, CV and renal events in the Aliskiren Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardio-Renal Endpoints (ALTITUDE), a randomized trial of alikiren vs. placebo., Methods and Results: We followed 8561 patients with T2DM and evidence of chronic kidney disease, CV disease, or both in ALTITUDE until the first non-fatal CV or renal event of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD; initiation of dialysis, renal transplantation, or a serum creatinine concentration above 6.0 mg/dL) and then to death or censoring. Time-updated multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the relative risk of death following each event. In total 1008 patients (12%) experienced at least one first non-fatal CV or renal event (4.1% HF, 2.8% MI, 2.8% stroke, and 2.2% ESRD). Death occurred subsequently in 26.4% of those experiencing a first HF event, 29.7% of those experiencing an MI event, 23.7% of those experiencing a stroke, and 14.7% of those experiencing ESRD, and in 6.5% (488) of the 7553 patients (88%) who did not experience a non-fatal CV or renal event. Compared with patients who did not experience a non-fatal event, the adjusted hazard ratio for death was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.6-7.6) after HF, 9.7 (7.5-12.6) after MI, 7.1 (5.3-9.5) after stroke, and 5.8 (3.7-9.0) after ESRD., Conclusion: The majority of deaths occurred in patients who did not experience a non-fatal CV or renal event, although the risk of death was higher following an event. Our findings illustrate continuing opportunities to reduce morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: While bidirectional relationships exist between body weight and physical activity, direction of causality remains uncertain and previous studies have been limited by self-reported activity or weight and small sample size. We investigated the prospective relationships between weight and physical activity., Design: Observational analysis of data from the Nateglinide And Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) study, a double-blinded randomised clinical trial of nateglinide and valsartan, respectively., Setting: Multinational study of 9306 participants., Participants: Participants with biochemically confirmed impaired glucose tolerance had annual measurements of both weight and step count using research grade pedometers, worn for 7 days consecutively. Along with randomisation to valsartan or placebo plus nateglinide or placebo, participants took part in a lifestyle modification programme., Outcome Measures: Longitudinal regression using weight as response value and physical activity as predictor value was conducted, adjusted for baseline covariates. Analysis was then repeated with physical activity as response value and weight as predictor value. Only participants with a response value preceded by at least three annual response values were included., Results: Adequate data were available for 2811 (30%) of NAVIGATOR participants. Previous weight (χ(2)=16.8; p<0.0001), but not change in weight (χ(2)=0.1; p=0.71) was inversely associated with subsequent step count, indicating lower subsequent levels of physical activity in heavier individuals. Change in step count (χ(2)=5.9; p=0.02) but not previous step count (χ(2)=0.9; p=0.34) was inversely associated with subsequent weight. However, in the context of trajectories already established for weight (χ(2) for previous weight measurements 747.3; p<0.0001) and physical activity (χ(2) for previous step count 432.6; p<0.0001), these effects were of limited clinical importance., Conclusions: While a prospective bidirectional relationship was observed between weight and physical activity, the magnitude of any effect was very small in the context of natural trajectories already established for these variables., Trial Registration Number: NCT00097786., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Objective: This study investigated whether fitness changes resulting from lifestyle interventions for weight loss may independently contribute to the improvement of low adiponectin levels in obese individuals with diabetes., Research Design and Methods: Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) randomized overweight/obese individuals with type 2 diabetes to intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) for weight loss or to diabetes support and education (DSE). Total and high-molecular weight adiponectin (adiponectins), weight, and cardiorespiratory fitness (submaximal exercise stress test) were measured in 1,397 participants at baseline and at 1 year, when ILI was most intense. Regression analyses examined the associations of 1-year weight and fitness changes with change in adiponectins., Results: ILI resulted in greater improvements in weight, fitness, and adiponectins at 1 year compared with DSE (P < 0.0001). Weight loss and improved fitness were each associated with changes in adiponectins in men and women (P < 0.001 for all), after adjusting for baseline adiponectins, demographics, clinical variables, and treatment arm. Weight loss contributed an additional 4-5% to the variance of change in adiponectins than did increased fitness in men; in women, the contributions of improved fitness (1% greater) and of weight loss were similar. When weight and fitness changes were both accounted for, weight loss in men and increased fitness in women retained their strong associations (P < 0.0001) with adiponectin change., Conclusions: Improvements in fitness and weight with ILI were favorably but distinctly associated with changes in adiponectin levels in overweight/obese men and women with diabetes. Future studies need to investigate whether sex-specific biological determinants contribute to the observed associations., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Aim: To investigate whether previous physical activity levels are associated with blood glucose levels in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance in the context of an international pharmaceutical trial., Methods: Data were analysed from the NAVIGATOR trial, which involved 9306 individuals with impaired glucose tolerance and high cardiovascular risk from 40 different countries, recruited in the period 2002-2004. Fasting glucose, 2-h post-challenge glucose and physical activity (pedometer) were assessed annually. A longitudinal regression analysis was used to determine whether physical activity levels 2 years (t-2 ) and 1 year (t-1 ) previously were associated with levels of glucose, after adjusting for previous glucose levels and other patient characteristics. Those participants with four consecutive annual measures of glucose and two consecutive measures of physical activity were included in the analysis., Results: The analysis included 3964 individuals. Change in physical activity from t-2 to t-1 and activity levels at t-2 were both associated with 2-h glucose levels after adjustment for previous glucose levels and baseline characteristics; however, the associations were weak: a 100% increase in physical activity was associated with a 0.9% reduction in 2-h glucose levels. In addition, previous physical activity only explained an additional 0.05% of the variance in 2-h glucose over the variance explained by the history of 2-h glucose alone (R(2)  = 0.3473 vs. 0.3468). There was no association with fasting glucose., Conclusions: In the context of a large international clinical trial, previous physical activity levels did not meaningfully influence glucose levels in those with a high risk of chronic disease, after taking into account participants' previous trajectory of glucose control., (© 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.)

Background: Coffee consumption has been associated with reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) however, the mechanism for this association has yet to be elucidated. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) characterizes and predicts T2DM yet the relationship of coffee with this disorder remains unclear. Our aim was to investigate the associations of coffee with markers of liver injury in 1005 multi-ethnic, non-diabetic adults in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study., Methods: Dietary intake was assessed using a validated 114-item food frequency questionnaire. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and fetuin-A were determined in fasting blood samples and the validated NAFLD liver fat score was calculated. Multivariate linear regression assessed the contribution of coffee to variation in markers of liver injury., Results: Caffeinated coffee showed significant inverse associations with ALT (β = -0.08, p = 0.0111), AST (β = -0.05, p = 0.0155) and NAFLD liver fat score (β = -0.05, p = 0.0293) but not with fetuin-A (β = 0.04, p = 0.17). When the highest alcohol consumers were excluded, these associations remained (ALT β = -0.11, p = 0.0037; AST β = -0.05, p = 0.0330; NAFLD liver fat score β = -0.06, p = 0.0298). With additional adjustment for insulin sensitivity, the relationship with ALT remained significant (ALT β = -0.08, p = 0.0400; AST β = -0.03, p = 0.20; NAFLD liver fat score β = -0.03, p = 0.27). There were no significant associations of decaffeinated coffee with liver markers., Conclusions: These analyses indicate a beneficial impact of caffeinated coffee on liver morphology and/or function, and suggest that this relationship may mediate the well-established inverse association of coffee with risk of T2DM.

Context: Determinants of the variance in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) among individuals without type 2 diabetes remain largely unknown., Objective: We investigated the determinants of HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose, and 2-hour glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test and the associations of these glycemic markers with insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion in Finnish men without type 2 diabetes., Design and Setting: The design and setting were the cross-sectional population-based Metabolic Syndrome in Men study including 10 197 Finnish men, aged 45-70 years, and randomly selected from the population register of Kuopio, Eastern Finland., Participants: Participants were a total of 9398 men without type 2 diabetes or with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes at baseline (mean age 57 ± 7 y; body mass index 27.0 ± 4.0 kg/m(2), mean ± SD) in the Metabolic Syndrome in Men study cohort., Interventions: The intervention included an oral glucose tolerance test., Main Outcome Measures: Glycemic and nonglycemic determinants of the variance in HbA1c among participants without type 2 diabetes and the association of HbA1c with insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity were measured., Results: Age, fasting plasma glucose, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were the strongest determinants of HbA1c, explaining 12% of the variance in HbA1c levels in participants without type 2 diabetes. Disposition index (insulin secretion) and the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index (insulin sensitivity) explained only less than 2% of the variance in HbA1c in the participants without type 2 diabetes., Conclusions: The variance in HbA1c among men without type 2 diabetes was largely determined by nonglycemic factors and only weakly by impaired insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion.

Objectives: To examine the specific distribution of liver fat content, visceral and subcutaneous adiposity in normal glucose tolerance (NGT/NGT), isolated impaired fasting glucose (iIFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (iIGT) and combined conditions (IFG+IGT), as well as with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (nT2D)., Design: Multicenter, international observational study: cross-sectional analysis., Subjects: Two thousand five hundred and fifteen patients (50.0% women, 54.5% non-Caucasian) without previously known diabetes were recruited from 29 countries. Abdominal fat distribution was measured by computed tomography (CT). Liver fat was estimated using the CT-liver mean attenuation., Results: Compared with NGT/NGT patients, increased visceral adiposity was found in iIFG, iIGT, IFG+IGT and nT2D; estimated liver fat progressively increased across these conditions. A one-s.d. increase in visceral adiposity was associated with an increased risk of having iIFG (men: odds ratio (OR) 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.74), women: OR 1.62 (1.29-2.04)), iIGT (men: OR 1.59 (1.15-2.01), women: OR 1.30 (0.96-1.76)), IFG+IGT (men: OR 1.64 (1.27-2.13), women: OR 1.83 (1.36-2.48)) and nT2D (men: OR 1.80 (1.35-2.42), women: OR 1.73 (1.25-2.41)). A one-s.d. increase in estimated liver fat was associated with iIGT (men: OR 1.46 (1.12-1.90), women: OR 1.81 (1.41-2.35)), IFG+IGT (men: OR 1.42 (1.14-1.77), women: OR 1.74 (1.35-2.26)) and nT2D (men: OR 1.77 (1.40-2.27), women: OR 2.38 (1.81-3.18)). Subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue showed an inverse relationship with nT2D in women (OR 0.63 (0.45-0.88))., Conclusions: Liver fat was associated with iIGT but not with iIFG, whereas visceral adiposity was associated with both. Liver fat and visceral adiposity were associated with nT2D, whereas subcutaneous adiposity showed an inverse relationship with nT2D in women.

Context: It remains to be established which surrogate marker is the most predictive of insulin resistance., Objective: We evaluated the incremental value of the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index (ISI) to homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for detecting insulin resistance., Design and Setting: This was a cross-sectional analysis of the EUGENE2 Kuopio cohort., Participants: Participants included 266 nondiabetic Finnish offspring of type 2 diabetic individuals (aged 24-50 years)., Main Outcome Measures: Insulin resistance (the lowest whole-body glucose uptake quartile) was measured by the euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, an insensitive method to model improvement. Reclassification was assessed by the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. We generated four strata using, as cut points, the 0.05, 0.25, and 0.70 probabilities of having insulin resistance. These were observed probabilities at body mass index of 20, 27, and 35 kg/m(2), respectively., Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Matsuda ISI based on 5 time points (0, 30, 60, 90, and 120 minutes) did not differ statistically from that of HOMA-IR (0.897 and 0.875, P = .080). However, the Matsuda ISI added incremental value to HOMA-IR for the detection of insulin-resistant individuals (net reclassification improvement, 26.2%, P < .001; integrated discrimination improvement, 6.3%, P < .001). A modified Matsuda ISI based on 4 time points (0, 30, 60, and 120 minutes) yielded similar results., Conclusion: The Matsuda ISI has additional value for the detection of insulin resistance beyond the ability of HOMA-IR. The Matsuda ISI reclassifies a net of 26% of individuals more appropriately.

Despite its well-documented relation with visceral adiposity (VAT) and cardiometabolic risk (CMR), whether waist circumference (WC) should be measured in addition to body mass index (BMI) remains debated. This study tested the relevance of adding WC to BMI for the estimation of VAT and CMR. In the International Study of Prediction of Intra-abdominal Adiposity and Its Relationship with Cardiometabolic Risk/Intra-abdominal Adiposity, 297 physicians recruited 4,504 patients (29 countries). Both BMI and WC were measured, whereas VAT and liver fat were assessed by computed tomography. A composite CMR score was calculated. From the 4,109 patients included in the present analyses (20 ≤ BMI < 40 kg/m(2), 47% women), about 30% displayed discordant values for WC and BMI quintiles, despite a strong correlation between the 2 anthropometric variables (r = 0.87 and r = 0.84 for men and women, respectively, p <0.001). Within each single BMI unit, VAT and WC showed substantial variability between subjects (mean difference between 90th and 10th percentiles: 175 cm(2)/16 cm and 137 cm(2)/18 cm for VAT/WC in men and women, respectively). Within each BMI category, increasing gender-specific WC tertiles were associated with significantly higher VAT, liver fat, and with a more adverse CMR profile. In conclusion, this large international cardiometabolic study highlights the frequent discordance between BMI and WC, driven by the substantial variability in VAT for a given BMI. Within each BMI category, WC was cross-sectionally associated with VAT, liver fat, and CMR factors. Thus, WC allows a further refinement of the CMR related to any given BMI., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Growing evidence suggests that dairy consumption is associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk. However, observational studies have reported inconsistent results, and few have examined dairy's association with the underlying disorders of insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction., Objective: We investigated the association of the dairy fatty acid biomarkers pentadecanoic acid (15:0) and trans-palmitoleic acid (trans 16:1n-7) with type 2 diabetes traits by evaluating 1) prospective associations with incident diabetes after 5 y of follow-up and 2) cross-sectional associations with directly measured insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction., Design: The study analyzed 659 adults without diabetes at baseline from the triethnic multicenter Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS). Diabetes status was assessed by using oral-glucose-tolerance tests. Frequently sampled intravenous-glucose-tolerance tests measured insulin sensitivity (SI) and β-cell function [disposition index (DI)]. Serum fatty acids were quantified by using gas chromatography. Logistic and linear regression models were adjusted for demographic, lifestyle, and dietary variables., Results: Serum 15:0 was a significant biomarker for total dairy intake in the IRAS cohort. It was associated with a decreased incident diabetes risk (OR: 0.73, P = 0.02) and was positively associated with log SI (β: 0.84, P = 0.03) and log DI (β: 2.21, P = 0.02) in fully adjusted models. trans 16:1n-7 was a marker of total partially hydrogenated dietary fat intake and was not associated with outcomes in fully adjusted models., Conclusions: Serum 15:0, a marker of short-term intake of this fatty acid, was inversely associated with diabetes risk in this multiethnic cohort. This study may contribute to future recommendations regarding the benefits of dairy products on type 2 diabetes risk., (© 2014 American Society for Nutrition.)

Increased physical activity is known to be beneficial in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but it is not known whether individuals change their activity levels after T2DM diagnosis. The present Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial, conducted in participants with impaired glucose tolerance at high cardiovascular risk, assessed ambulatory activity annually using research-grade pedometers. Oral glucose tolerance tests were performed annually and repeated to confirm T2DM diagnosis. This observational analysis used general linear models to compare step counts before and after T2DM diagnosis in the 2816 participants with the requisite data. Participants were relatively inactive at baseline, taking a median (interquartile range) of 5488 (3258-8361) steps/day, which decreased after T2DM diagnosis by a mean (s.e.) of 258 (64) steps/day (p < 0.0001); however, after adjusting for background trend for activity, step count after T2DM diagnosis was unchanged [mean (s.e.) of 103 (87) fewer steps/day; p = 0.23]. Awareness of T2DM diagnosis had no impact on the trajectory of activity established before the diagnosis., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) is elevated in obese individuals with type 2 diabetes and may contribute, independently of traditional factors, to increased cardiovascular disease risk. Fiber intake may decrease PAI-1 levels. We examined the associations of fiber intake and its changes with PAI-1 before and during an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) for weight loss in 1,701 Look AHEAD (Action for Health in Diabetes) participants with dietary, fitness, and PAI-1 data at baseline and 1 year. Look AHEAD was a randomized cardiovascular disease trial in 5,145 overweight/obese patients with type 2 diabetes, comparing ILI (goal of ≥7% reduction in baseline weight) with a control arm of diabetes support and education. ILI participants were encouraged to consume vegetables, fruits, and grain products low in sugar and fat. At baseline, median fiber intake was 17.9 g/day. Each 8.3 g/day higher fiber intake was associated with a 9.2% lower PAI-1 level (P=0.008); this association persisted after weight and fitness adjustments (P=0.03). Higher baseline intake of fruit (P=0.019) and high-fiber grain and cereal (P=0.029) were related to lower PAI-1 levels. Although successful in improving weight and physical fitness at 1 year, the ILI in Look AHEAD resulted in small increases in fiber intake (4.1 g/day, compared with -2.35 g/day with diabetes support and education) that were not related to PAI-1 change (P=0.34). Only 31.3% of ILI participants (39.8% of women, 19.1% of men) met daily fiber intake recommendations. Increasing fiber intake in overweight/obese individuals with diabetes interested in weight loss is challenging. Future studies evaluating changes in fiber consumption during weight loss interventions are warranted., (Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We aimed to evaluate disproportional proinsulinemia in the pre-diabetic state by analyzing the cross-sectional differences between proinsulin (PI) ratios across the entire range of fasting and 2-h plasma glucose. The study sample was 1,016 participants in the insulin resistance atherosclerosis study, who had no previous diagnosis of diabetes. Insulin sensitivity index (SI) and acute insulin response (AIR) were measured by the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test. Fasting intact and split PI-to-insulin ratios (PI/I, SPI/I), intact and split PI-to-C-peptide ratios (PI/C-pep, SPI/C-pep), and SI-adjusted AIR were assessed as a function of fasting and 2-h glucose levels. SI-adjusted AIR was decreased (fasting glucose 96-98 mg/dl; 2-h glucose 120-131 mg/dl) and SPI/C-pep increased at modestly elevated fasting glucose and 2-h glucose within the normal glucose tolerance range (fasting glucose 96-98 mg/dl; 2-h glucose 132-142 mg/dl). PI/I was not increased until plasma glucose values were in the diabetic range of fasting glucose (>126 mg/dl) or the impaired glucose tolerance range of 2-h glucose (143-156 mg/dl). SPI/I and PI/C-pep as a function of fasting and 2-h glucose were situated between the curves for SPI/C-pep and PI/I. In conclusion, inappropriate amounts of PI and conversion intermediaries are demonstrated at modestly elevated glucose levels within the normoglycemic range. Ratios that use SPI in the numerator or C-pep in the denominator (and especially SPI/C-pep) are more sensitive to early glycemic excursions than PI/I. Disordered processing of PI may accompany derangements in early insulin secretory response.

Objective: To examine the association between egg consumption and measures of insulin sensitivity (SI), acute insulin response (AIR) and metabolic clearance rate of insulin (MCRI)., Design: Cross-sectional analysis., Settings: Egg consumption, categorized as <1/week, 1 to <3/week, 3 to <5/week and ≥5/week, was measured using a validated FFQ. SI, AIR and MCRI were determined from frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests., Subjects: Non-diabetic participants (n 949) in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS)., Results: Egg consumption was inversely associated with SI and MCRI, and positively associated with fasting insulin in regression models adjusted for demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and dietary factors (β = -0·22, 95 % CI -0·38, -0·045, P = 0·05 for SI; β = -0·20, 95 % CI -0·34, -0·055, P = 0·005 for MCRI; β = 0·35, 95 % CI 0·15, 0·54, P = 0·002 for fasting insulin; all P values for linear trend). These associations remained significant after additionally adjusting for energy intake or dietary saturated fat, although dietary cholesterol and BMI attenuated these associations to non-significance. Egg consumption was not associated with AIR., Conclusions: Dietary cholesterol and BMI appear to mediate the inverse association of egg consumption with insulin sensitivity and clearance. Alternatively, egg consumption may be clustered with other dietary behaviours which increase BMI, hence negatively impacting on insulin sensitivity and clearance.

Aims/hypothesis: Low phosphate and high calcium concentrations have been linked to altered glucose tolerance and reduced insulin sensitivity in non-diabetic individuals. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships of calcium and phosphate levels and the calcium-phosphate product with the development of type 2 diabetes., Methods: Participants were 863 African-Americans, Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study who were free of diabetes at baseline. The mean follow-up period was 5.2 years. The insulin sensitivity index (SI) and acute insulin response (AIR) were directly measured using the frequently sampled IVGTT., Results: Calcium concentration (OR per 1 SD unit increase, 1.26 [95% CI 1.04, 1.53]) and calcium-phosphate product (OR 1.29 [95% CI 1.04, 1.59]) were associated with incident diabetes after adjustment for demographic variables, family history of diabetes, and 2 h glucose. The relationship between phosphate concentration and progression to diabetes was close to statistical significance (OR 1.21 [95% CI 0.98, 1.49]). Calcium concentration (OR 1.37 [95% CI 1.09, 1.72]) and calcium-phosphate product (OR 1.39 [95% CI 1.09, 1.77]) remained associated with incident diabetes after additional adjustment for BMI, plasma glucose, SI, AIR, C-reactive protein, estimated GFR, diuretic drugs and total calcium intake., Conclusions/interpretation: Elevated serum calcium and calcium-phosphate product are associated with increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes independently of measured glucose, insulin secretion and insulin resistance. Future studies need to analyse the role of calcium-phosphate homeostasis in the pathophysiology of diabetes.

Objective: The cardiometabolic risk cluster metabolic syndrome (MS) includes ≥3 of elevated fasting glucose, hypertension, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and increased waist circumference. Each can be affected by physical activity and diet. Our objective was to determine whether determine whether baseline physical activity and/or diet behavior impact MS in the course of a large pharmaceutical trial., Materials/methods: This was an observational study from NAVIGATOR, a double-blind, randomized (nateglinide, valsartan, both, or placebo), controlled trial between 2002 and 2004. We studied data from persons (n=9306) with impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or CVD risk factors; 7118 with pedometer data were included in this analysis. Physical activity was assessed with 7-day pedometer records; diet behavior was self-reported on a 6-item survey. An MS score (MSSc) was calculated using the sum of each MS component, centered around the Adult Treatment Panel III threshold, and standardized according to sample standard deviation. Excepting HDL-c, assessed at baseline and year 3, MS components were assessed yearly. Follow-up averaged 6 years., Results: For every 2000-step increase in average daily steps, there was an associated reduction in average MSSc of 0.29 (95% CI (-)0.33 to (-)0.25). For each diet behavior endorsed, there was an associated reduction in average MSSc of 0.05 (95% CI (-)0.08 to (-)0.01). Accounting for the effects of pedometer steps and diet behavior together had minimal impact on parameter estimates with no significant interaction. Relations were independent of age, sex, race, region, smoking, family history of diabetes, and use of nateglinide, valsartan, aspirin, antihypertensive, and lipid-lowering agent., Conclusions: Baseline physical activity and diet behavior were associated independently with reductions in MSSc such that increased attention to these lifestyle elements provides cardiometabolic benefits. Thus, given the potential to impact outcomes, assessment of physical activity and diet should be performed in pharmacologic trials targeting cardiometabolic risk., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objective: The GUARDIAN (Genetics UndeRlying DIAbetes in HispaNics) consortium is described, along with heritability estimates and genetic and environmental correlations of insulin sensitivity and metabolic clearance rate of insulin (MCRI)., Methods: GUARDIAN is comprised of seven cohorts, consisting of 4,336 Mexican-American individuals in 1,346 pedigrees. Insulin sensitivity (SI ), MCRI, and acute insulin response (AIRg) were measured by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test in four cohorts. Insulin sensitivity (M, M/I) and MCRI were measured by hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp in three cohorts. Heritability and genetic and environmental correlations were estimated within the family cohorts (totaling 3,925 individuals) using variance components., Results: Across studies, age, and gender-adjusted heritability of insulin sensitivity (SI , M, M/I) ranged from 0.23 to 0.48 and of MCRI from 0.35 to 0.73. The ranges for the genetic correlations were 0.91 to 0.93 between SI and MCRI; and -0.57 to -0.59 for AIRg and MCRI (all P < 0.0001). The ranges for the environmental correlations were 0.54 to 0.74 for SI and MCRI (all P < 0.0001); and -0.16 to -0.36 for AIRg and MCRI (P < 0.0001-0.06)., Conclusions: These data support a strong familial basis for insulin sensitivity and MCRI in Mexican Americans. The strong genetic correlations between MCRI and SI suggest common genetic determinants., (Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.)

Background: The extent to which change in physical activity can modify the risk of cardiovascular disease in individuals at high cardiovascular risk is uncertain. We investigated whether baseline and change in objectively-assessed ambulatory activity is associated with the risk of a cardiovascular event in individuals at high cardiovascular risk with impaired glucose tolerance., Methods: We assessed prospective data from the NAVIGATOR trial involving 9306 individuals with impaired glucose tolerance who were recruited in 40 countries between January, 2002, and January, 2004. Participants also either had existing cardiovascular disease (if age ≥50 years) or at least one additional cardiovascular risk factor (if age ≥55 years). Participants were followed-up for cardiovascular events (defined as cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal stroke, or myocardial infarction) for 6 years on average and had ambulatory activity assessed by pedometer at baseline and 12 months. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models quantified the association of baseline and change in ambulatory activity (from baseline to 12 months) with the risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event, after adjustment for each other and potential confounding variables. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.govNCT00097786., Findings: During 45,211 person-years follow-up, 531 cardiovascular events occurred. Baseline ambulatory activity (hazard ratio [HR] per 2000 steps per day 0·90, 95% CI 0·84-0·96) and change in ambulatory activity (0·92, 0·86-0·99) were inversely associated with the risk of a cardiovascular event. Results for change in ambulatory activity were unaffected when also adjusted for changes in body-mass index and other potential confounding variables at 12 months., Interpretation: In individuals at high cardiovascular risk with impaired glucose tolerance, both baseline levels of daily ambulatory activity and change in ambulatory activity display a graded inverse association with the subsequent risk of a cardiovascular event., Funding: Novartis Pharmaceuticals., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Context: The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) associated with obesity appears to be influenced by the coexistence of other metabolic abnormalities., Objective: We examined the risk of developing CVD and DM in metabolically healthy obese (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUH-NW) individuals., Design and Setting: We analyzed prospective data of the San Antonio Heart Study, a population-based study among Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites (median follow-up, 7.4 y)., Participants: Incident DM and CVD were assessed in 2814 and 3700 participants aged 25 to 64 years, respectively., Main Measures: MHO was defined as obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) with no more than one metabolic abnormality, and MUH-NW was defined as body mass index <25 kg/m(2) with two or more abnormalities., Results: In logistic regression models, BMI was associated with incident DM after controlling for demographics, family history of DM, and fasting glucose (odds ratio × 1 SD, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.5-2.0]). Both MUH-NW and MHO individuals had an increased DM risk (2.5 [1.1-5.6] and 3.9 [2.0-7.4], respectively). Similarly, BMI was related to incident CVD after adjusting for demographics and Framingham risk score (1.3 [1.1-1.6]). Incident CVD was also increased in MUH-NW and MHO individuals (2.9 [1.3-6.4] and 3.9 [1.9-7.8], respectively). Results were consistent across gender and ethnic categories., Conclusion: The risk of developing DM and CVD is increased in MUH-NW and MHO individuals. Screening for obesity and other metabolic abnormalities should be routinely performed in clinical practice to institute appropriate preventive measures.

Aims/hypothesis: White cell count has been shown to predict incident type 2 diabetes, but differential white cell count has received scant attention. We examined the risk of developing diabetes associated with differential white cell count and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio and the effect of insulin sensitivity and subclinical inflammation on white cell associations., Methods: Incident diabetes was ascertained in 866 participants aged 40-69 years in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study after a 5 year follow-up period. The insulin sensitivity index (SI) was measured by the frequently sampled IVGTT., Results: C-reactive protein was directly and independently associated with neutrophil (p < 0.001) and monocyte counts (p < 0.01) and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (p < 0.001), whereas SI was inversely and independently related to lymphocyte count (p < 0.05). There were 138 (15.9%) incident cases of diabetes. Demographically adjusted ORs for incident diabetes, comparing the top and bottom tertiles of white cell (1.80 [95% CI 1.10, 2.92]), neutrophil (1.67 [1.04, 2.71]) and lymphocyte counts (2.30 [1.41, 3.76]), were statistically significant. No association was demonstrated for monocyte count (1.18 [0.73, 1.90]) or neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (0.89 [0.55, 1.45]). White cell and neutrophil associations were no longer significant after further adjusting for family history of diabetes, fasting glucose and smoking, but the OR comparing the top and bottom tertiles of lymphocyte count remained significant (1.96 [1.13, 3.37]). This last relationship was better explained by SI rather than C-reactive protein., Conclusions/interpretation: A lymphocyte association with incident diabetes, which was the strongest association among the major white cell types, was partially explained by insulin sensitivity rather than subclinical inflammation.

Objective: To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes., Design: Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial., Setting: NAVIGATOR trial., Participants: Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control., Main Outcome Measures: Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment., Results: During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively)., Conclusions: Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00097786.

Objective: Some obese individuals appear to be protected from developing type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This has led to characterizing body size phenotypes based on cardiometabolic risk factors specifically as obese or overweight, and as metabolically healthy (MH) or metabolically abnormal (MA) based upon blood pressure, lipids, glucose homeostasis, and inflammatory parameters. The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence of and describe fat distribution across these phenotypes in a minority population., Design and Methods: Hispanic participants (N = 1054) in the IRAS Family Study were categorized into different body size phenotypes. Computed tomography (CT) abdominal scans were evaluated for measures of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and abdominal fat distribution. Statistical models adjusting for familial relationships were estimated., Results: Seventy percent (70%) of the Hispanic cohort was overweight (32%) or obese (38%). Forty-one percent (n = 138) of overweight participants and 19% (n = 74) of obese participants met criteria for MH. Adjusted analyses showed the MH phenotype was associated with lower visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and higher liver density (indicating lower fat content) in obese participants (p = 0.0005 and p = 0.0002, respectively), and lower VAT but not liver density in overweight participants (p = 0.008 and p = 0.162, respectively) compared to their MA counterparts. Odds of NAFLD were reduced in MH obese (OR = 0.34, p = 0.0007) compared to MA obese. VAT did not differ between MH obese or overweight and normal weight groups., Conclusions: These findings suggest that lower levels of visceral and liver fat, despite overall increased total body fat, may be a defining feature of MH obesity in Hispanic Americans., (Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.)

Background: The role of dysglycemia as an additional risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) is controversial. Therefore, it was of interest to assess risk factors for incident AF in a large, representative population of patients with cardiovascular risk factors and impaired glucose tolerance but not overt diabetes in NAVIGATOR., Methods: Predictors of incident AF were analyzed in 8,943 patients without AF at baseline by Cox proportional hazards regression. Study treatments (valsartan vs no valsartan and nateglinide vs no nateglinide) and the time-dependent covariate for progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus were added separately to the model., Results: The median age of the 8,943 patients included in the present analysis of the NAVIGATOR trial was 63 years. Half of those patients were men, 6,922 (77.4%) had a history of hypertension, and 255 (2.9%) had heart failure. The median glycated hemoglobin was 6%. During the study, 613 of the 8,943 patients without AF at baseline presented with at least 1 episode of AF (6.9% 5-year incidence). Besides established predictors of incident AF, a 1 mmol/L increment of baseline fasting glucose, but not progression to diabetes, was found to be associated with a 33% increased risk of incident AF. Neither valsartan nor nateglinide affected AF incidence., Conclusions: In a trial population with impaired glucose tolerance, fasting plasma glucose and well-known risk factors (age, hypertension, and elevated body weight), but not progression to diabetes, predict risk of AF., (© 2013.)

Context: β-Cell function (BCF) declines over the course of type 2 diabetes, but little is known about BCF changes across glucose tolerance status (GTS) categories, and comparisons of direct vs surrogate measures., Objective: To assess longitudinal changes in BCF across GTS., Design: The Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study is a multicenter, observational, epidemiologic study., Setting: Four clinical centers in the US that could identify subjects likely to have impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)., Patients: We compared longitudinal changes in BCF in 1052 subjects over 5 years. Subjects were categorized according to baseline GTS: normal glucose tolerance (NGT: n = 547), impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance (IFG/IGT: n = 341), and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (n = 164)., Interventions: None., Main Outcome Measures: BCF was assessed from a frequently sampled iv glucose tolerance test (AIR, acute insulin response), and the homeostasis model assessment of BCF (HOMA B)., Results: NGT and IFG/IGT subjects increased their insulin secretion over time, whereas those with type 2 diabetes experienced either decline or little change in BCF. After adjustment for demographic variables and change in insulin resistance, change in HOMA B underestimated the magnitude of changes in BCF, as assessed by change in AIR. Relative to NGT, the 5-year change in insulin secretion in IFG/IGT and type 2 diabetes was 31% and 70% lower (by HOMA B) and 50% and 80% lower (by AIR)., Conclusions: The decline in BCF over time in IFG/IGT and type 2 diabetes may be more pronounced than previously estimated; HOMA B may underestimate this decline significantly.

Background and Purpose: Risk factors for stroke are well-established in general populations but sparsely studied in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance., Methods: We identified predictors of stroke among participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were constructed using baseline variables, including the 2 medications studied, valsartan and nateglinide., Results: Among 9306 participants, 237 experienced a stroke over 6.4 years. Predictors of stroke included classical risk factors such as existing cerebrovascular and coronary heart disease, higher pulse pressure, higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, older age, and atrial fibrillation. Other factors, including previous venous thromboembolism, higher waist circumference, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, lower heart rate, and lower body mass index, provided additional important predictive information, yielding a C-index of 0.72. Glycemic measures were not predictive of stroke. Variables associated with stroke were similar in participants with no prior history of cerebrovascular disease at baseline., Conclusions: The most powerful predictors of stroke in patients with impaired glucose tolerance included a combination of established risk factors and novel variables, such as previous venous thromboembolism and elevated waist circumference, allowing moderately effective identification of high-risk individuals.

We used baseline data from the NAVIGATOR trial to (1) identify risk factors for diabetes progression in those with impaired glucose tolerance and high cardiovascular risk, (2) create models predicting 5-year incident diabetes, and (3) provide risk classification tools to guide clinical interventions. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models estimated 5-year incident diabetes risk and simplified models examined the relative importance of measures of glycemia in assessing diabetes risk. The C-statistic was used to compare models; reclassification analyses compare the models' ability to identify risk groups defined by potential therapies (routine or intensive lifestyle advice or pharmacologic therapy). Diabetes developed in 3,254 (35%) participants over 5 years median follow-up. The full prediction model included fasting and 2-hour glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) values but demonstrated only moderate discrimination for diabetes (C = 0.70). Simplified models with only fasting glucose (C = 0.67) or oral glucose tolerance test values (C = 0.68) had higher C statistics than models with HbA1c alone (C = 0.63). The models were unlikely to inappropriately reclassify participants to risk groups that might receive pharmacologic therapy. Our results confirm that in a population with dysglycemia and high cardiovascular risk, traditional risk factors are appropriate predictors and glucose values are better predictors than HbA1c, but discrimination is moderate at best, illustrating the challenges of predicting diabetes in a high-risk population. In conclusion, our novel risk classification paradigm based on potential treatment could be used to guide clinical practice based on cost and availability of screening tests., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and liver fat (LF) are strongly associated with type 2 diabetes. It is not known, however, how diabetes treatment and/or risk factor management modulates the association between VAT, LF and diabetes. The aim was to determine the level of VAT and LF in patients with type 2 diabetes according to their treatment status and achievement of the American Diabetes Association's (ADA) diabetes management goals., Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the baseline data of the International Study of the Prediction of Intra-Abdominal Adiposity and its Relationship with Cardiometabolic risk/Intra-Abdominal Adiposity (INSPIRE ME IAA), a 3-year prospective cardiometabolic imaging study conducted in 29 countries. Patients (n = 3991) were divided into four groups: (i) those without type 2 diabetes (noT2D n = 1003 men, n = 1027 women); (ii) those with type 2 diabetes but not treated with diabetes medications (T2Dnomeds n = 248 men, n = 198 women); (iii) those with type 2 diabetes and treated with diabetes medications but not yet using insulin (T2Dmeds-ins n = 591 men, n = 484 women) and (iv) those with type 2 diabetes and treated with insulin (T2Dmeds+ins n = 233 men, n = 207 women). Abdominal and liver adiposity were measured by computed tomography., Results: Fewer patients with high VAT or LF achieved the ADA's goals for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or triglycerides compared to patients with low VAT or LF. Visceral adiposity (p = 0.02 men, p = 0.003 women) and LF (p = 0.0002 men, p = 0.0004 women) increased among patients who met fewer of the ADA treatment criteria, regardless of type 2 diabetes treatment., Conclusion: Residual cardiometabolic risk exists among patients with type 2 diabetes characterized by elevated VAT and LF., (© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Objective: Cardiovascular risk remains high despite statin use. Overweight/obese diabetic persons usually have normal/low LDL-cholesterol but high C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. We aimed to examine the effects of intensive lifestyle intervention for weight loss (ILI) on CRP levels in overweight/obese diabetic individuals by statin use., Design and Methods: Look AHEAD was a randomized trial in overweight/obese type 2 diabetic individuals testing whether ILI would reduce cardiovascular mortality, when compared to usual care. CRP changes in 1,431 participants with biomarker levels, who remained on or off statin treatment for 1 year, were evaluated., Results: The reduction in CRP levels with ILI at 1 year in men and women on statins was -44.9 and -42.3%, respectively, compared to -13.7 and -21.0% for those on statins and usual care (P < 0.0001). At 1 year, median CRP levels were: 1.8 mg L(-1) in participants randomized to ILI on statin therapy; 2.6 mg L(-1) for those on statins randomized to usual care and 2.9 mg L(-1) for participants not on statins but randomized to ILI. Weight loss was associated with 1-year CRP reduction (P < 0.0001) in statin and nonstatin users., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that in overweight/obese diabetic persons, ILI and statin therapy may have substantial additive anti-inflammatory benefits., (Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.)

Aims: Cross-sectional evidence indicates that abdominal adiposity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and glycaemia are associated with reduced metabolic clearance rate of insulin (MCRI). Little is known about the progression of MCRI and whether components of metabolic syndrome are associated with the change in MCRI. In this study, we examined the association between components of metabolic syndrome and the 5-year change of MCRI., Methods: At baseline and 5-year follow-up, we measured fasting plasma triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) in 784 non-diabetic participants in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study. MCRI, insulin sensitivity (SI ) and acute insulin response (AIR) were determined from frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests., Results: We observed a 29% decline of MCRI at follow-up. TG, systolic BP and WC at baseline were inversely associated with a decline of MCRI regression models adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol consumption, energy expenditure, family history of diabetes, BMI, SI and AIR [β = -0.057 (95% confidence interval, CI: -0.11, -0.0084) for TG, β = -0.0019 (95% CI: -0.0035, -0.00023) for systolic BP and β = -0.0084 (95% CI: -0.013, -0.0039) for WC; all p < 0.05]. Higher HDL cholesterol at baseline was associated with an increase in MCRI [multivariable-adjusted β = 0.0029 (95% CI: 0.0010, 0.0048), p = 0.002]. FBG at baseline was not associated with MCRI at follow-up [multivariable-adjusted β = 0.0014 (95% CI: -0.0026, 0.0029)]., Conclusions: MCRI declined progressively over 5 years in a non-diabetic cohort. Components of metabolic syndrome at baseline were associated with a significant change in MCRI., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Aims/hypothesis: Markers of liver injury, such as alanine aminotransferase (ALT), have been associated with atherogenic lipoprotein changes. We examined the extent to which this association was explained by insulin resistance, adiposity, glucose tolerance and chronic inflammation., Methods: In this analysis we included 824 non-diabetic participants (age 40-69 years) in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study. No participants reported excessive alcohol intake or treatment with lipid-lowering medications. Lipoproteins and apolipoproteins were measured by conventional methods and lipoprotein heterogeneity by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy., Results: ALT had a positive relationship with triacylglycerols, LDL-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) after adjusting for demographic variables (p < 0.001 for all three relationships). ALT was also associated with the following NMR lipoproteins: positively with large VLDL (p < 0.001), intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL) (p < 0.001) and small LDL subclass particles (p < 0.001), and VLDL particle size (p < 0.001); and negatively with large LDL subclass particles (p < 0.05) and LDL (p < 0.001) and HDL particle sizes (p < 0.01). ALT remained associated with IDL and small LDL subclass particles and ApoB after adjusting for glucose tolerance, adiposity, directly measured insulin sensitivity and C-reactive protein., Conclusions/interpretation: ALT is associated with a wide range of atherogenic lipoprotein changes, which are partially explained by insulin resistance, adiposity, glucose tolerance and chronic inflammation. Because of the significant variability in the relationship between ALT and liver fat, further studies are needed to assess the extent of the lipoprotein changes using a direct measure of liver fat.

Context: Cardiovascular risk is increased in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG); however, those with IGT appear to be at greater risk. Lipoprotein abnormalities occur also in the prediabetic state., Objective: The authors examined lipoprotein composition in IGT and IFG., Design and Setting: Cross-sectional analysis of a large epidemiological study was done., Participants: The Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study had a total of 1107 participants., Main Measures: Lipoproteins and apolipoproteins were measured by conventional methods and lipoprotein composition by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy., Results: Compared with normal glucose tolerance, apolipoprotein B (105.2 vs 99.8 mg/dL, P < .05) was high in isolated IFG, triglyceride (1.48 vs 1.16 mmol/L, P < .001) was high in isolated IGT, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was low in combined IFG/IGT (1.12 vs 1.26 mmol/L, P < .001). Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy revealed additional changes: increased total low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles (1190 vs 1096 nmol/L, P < .01) in isolated IFG; increased large very-low-density lipoprotein (3.61 vs 2.47 nmol/L, P < .01) and small LDL subclass particles (665 vs 541 nmol/L, P < .05) and decreased large LDL subclass particles (447 vs 513 nmol/L, P < .01) in isolated IGT; and decreased large high-density lipoprotein subclass particles in combined IFG/IGT (4.24 vs 5.39 μmol/L, P < .001)., Conclusions: Isolated IFG is characterized by increased apolipoprotein B and total LDL particles, whereas isolated IGT is associated with increased triglycerides, large very-low-density lipoprotein subclass particles, and structural remodeling of LDL particles. These results may help to explain differences in cardiovascular disease risk in the prediabetic state.

Objective: We aimed to identify factors that are independently associated with the metabolic clearance rate of insulin (MCRI) and to examine the association of MCRI with incident type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic Hispanics and African Americans., Research Design and Methods: We investigated 1,116 participants in the Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study (IRAS) Family Study with baseline examinations from 2000 to 2002 and follow-up examinations from 2005 to 2006. Insulin sensitivity (S(I)), acute insulin response (AIR), and MCRI were determined at baseline from frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests. MCRI was calculated as the ratio of the insulin dose over the incremental area under the curve of insulin. Incident diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or antidiabetic medication use by self-report., Results: We observed that S(I) and HDL cholesterol were independent positive correlates of MCRI, whereas fasting insulin, fasting glucose, subcutaneous adipose tissue, visceral adipose tissue, and AIR were independent negative correlates (all P < 0.05) at baseline. After 5 years of follow-up, 71 (6.4%) participants developed type 2 diabetes. Lower MCRI was associated with a higher risk of incident diabetes after adjusting for demographics, lifestyle factors, HDL cholesterol, indexes of obesity and adiposity, and insulin secretion (odds ratio 2.01 [95% CI 1.30-3.10], P = 0.0064, per one-SD decrease in loge-transformed MCRI)., Conclusions: Our data showed that lower MCRI predicts the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Background: Impaired glucose tolerance and metabolic syndrome are associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF). However, predictors associated with the increased risk of incident HF have not been well characterized. We aimed to identify independent predictors of incident HF hospitalization among patients with impaired glucose tolerance., Methods and Results: In Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR), 9306 research participants with impaired glucose tolerance and ≥1 cardiovascular risk factors were randomized to valsartan versus placebo and nateglinide versus placebo in a 2×2 factorial manner, with a median follow-up of 6.5 years. Using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, we analyzed the relationships among baseline clinical factors and the outcome of incident HF hospitalization in patients without history of HF. Significant predictors were identified by forward selection. Increasing age, history of coronary heart disease, and atrial fibrillation or flutter were among several known independent predictors of incident HF hospitalization. Increased waist circumference (hazard ratio per 10 cm, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.55; P<0.001) and increased urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (P<0.001) were identified as novel predictors. The predictive model for incident HF hospitalization showed good discrimination, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.79., Conclusions: Among research participants with impaired glucose tolerance, there are several easily identifiable predictors of incident HF hospitalization, including traditional risk factors and novel indices of central adiposity and increased urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, which enable further risk stratification and help distinguish patients who could benefit from more aggressive risk factor management.

Objective: To determine the prevalence of a negative insulinogenic index (change in plasma insulin/change in plasma glucose from 0 to 30 min) from an oral glucose tolerance test according to glucose tolerance category., Materials and Methods: Data from the San Antonio Heart Study (n=2494), Japanese American Community Diabetes Study (JACDS; n=594) and Genetics of NIDDM Study (n=1519) were examined. Glucose tolerance was defined by ADA criteria., Results: In the combined cohort, the prevalence of a negative insulinogenic index was significantly higher in diabetes 20/616 (3.2%) compared to normal glucose tolerance 43/2667 (1.6%) (p<0.05). Longitudinally, in the JACDS cohort, the prevalence did not change from baseline (3/594; 0.5%) to 5 (4/505; 0.7%) and 10 years (8/426; 1.9%) (p=0.9) and no subject had a repeat negative insulinogenic index., Conclusions: A negative insulinogenic index occurs at a low prevalence across glucose tolerance categories although more often in diabetes, but without recurrence over time., (Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.)