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Freshwater ecosystems support biological communities with high species richness and conservation interest. However, these ecosystems are highly altered by human intervention and threatened worldwide, making them a priority in conservation planning and biodiversity monitoring. Bryophytes, including several conservation-interest taxa, are recognized indicators of ecological status in freshwaters. We aimed to develop a framework for designing monitoring networks to detect trends in aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities, prioritizing high-conservation interest communities in different contexts of human pressure (specifically, resulting from the intersection of two criteria: (i) protection status and (ii) presence of a potential impact area). The framework consists of three steps: (1) Spatial modelling of biodiversity; (2) Spatial conservation prioritization; and (3) Model-assisted monitoring network design. Community-level modelling was used to model the distribution of the main bryophyte assemblages in the study area. A conservation prioritization software was utilized to identify areas with high conservation value. The monitoring network was designed using stratified random sampling and unequal-probability sampling techniques to target high conservation value sites distributed across different contexts of human pressure. We have identified four distinct community types, each characterized both by a small group of common and dominant species, and by small group of rarer, conservation-interest species. This typification of four species assemblages occurring in the study area, also highlighted those with potentially higher conservation-interest. The most valuable areas for the conservation of aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities coincide with specific environmental zones: mountainous areas in Lusitania, large watercourses in the Mediterranean North and some locations in the Mediterranean Mountains. Finally, we obtained a potential monitoring network consisting of 64 monitoring points, unequally distributed across different contexts of human pressure, privileging locations with higher conservation value. The framework presented here illustrates the potential of combining biodiversity modelling, spatial conservation prioritization and monitoring design in the development of monitoring networks. Namely, this framework allowed us to counter data deficiencies, to identify high priority areas to monitor and to design a monitoring network considering different scenarios of human pressure at a regional scale. This framework can also be valuable for conservation efforts as an approach to monitoring conservation-interest biodiversity features in anthropogenically modified riverscapes, which present different degrees of human pressure and the cumulative effects of these different impact elements. Moreover, this approach allows for the comprehensive monitoring of biodiversity values important for management at the national and regional levels. In addition, this framework is one of the first efforts in the development of monitoring networks that target aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities, a long-neglected plant group of high ecological and conservation importance in freshwater ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasion by non-native tree species is an environmental and societal challenge requiring predictive tools to assess invasion dynamics. The frequent scale mismatch between such tools and on-ground conservation is currently limiting invasion management. This study aimed to reduce these scale mismatches, assess the success of non-native tree invasion and determine the environmental factors associated to it. A hierarchical scaling approach combining species distribution models (SDMs) and satellite mapping at very high resolution (VHR) was developed to assess invasion by Acacia dealbata in Peneda-Gerês National Park, the only national park in Portugal. SDMs were first used to predict the climatically suitable areas for A. dealdata and satellite mapping with the random-forests classifier was then applied toWorldView-2 very-high resolution imagery to determine whether A. dealdata had actually colonized the predicted areas (invasion success). Environmental attributes (topographic, disturbance and canopy-related) differing between invaded and non-invaded vegetated areas were then analyzed. The SDM results indicated that most (67%) of the study area was climatically suitable for A. dealbata invasion. The onset of invasion was documented to 1905 and satellite mapping highlighted that 12.6% of study area was colonized. However, this species had only colonized 62.5% of the maximum potential range, although was registered within 55.6% of grid cells that were considerable unsuitable. Across these areas, the specific success rate of invasion was mostly below 40%, indicating that A. dealbata invasion was not dominant and effective management may still be possible. Environmental attributes related to topography (slope), canopy (normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), land surface albedo) and disturbance (historical burnt area) differed between invaded and non-invaded vegetated area, suggesting that landscape attributes may alter at specific locations with Acacia invasion. Fine-scale spatial-explicit estimation of invasion success combining SDM predictions with VHR invasion mapping allowed the scale mismatch between predictions of invasion dynamics and on-ground conservation decision making for invasion management to be reduced. Locations with greater potential to suppress invasions could also be defined. Uncertainty in the invasion mapping needs to be accounted for in the interpretation of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most prominent factors inducing landscape change in the rural regions of south west Europe are depopulation and the associated socio-ecological modifications. The aim of this work was to assess the future implications of these processes on land use/land cover and biodiversity in northwest Iberia. To achieve our goal, we developed a virtual spatially explicit dynamic model to simulate regional socio-ecological dynamics. For the period between 1960 and 2040, we tested four different environmental scenarios ranging from small decreases in conifer forest and a stabilization of agricultural areas and shrublands to more radical shifts, substantial decreases in agricultural areas and massive expansion of eucalyptus stands. The model considers also fire, whose role increased significantly in the scenarios of expanded forests. Bird assemblages, which we used as a surrogate for biodiversity, showed complex patterns although with overall decreases in richness and abundance. Species with narrow niche and from Mediterranean open habitats were particularly sensitive to the ongoing changes simulated. Our results suggest that landscape management actions and planning assessments designed for conserving biodiversity should focus on the maintenance of the traditional agricultural mosaic combined with a regulatory legislation limiting the expansion of fast growing tree forests (e.g Eucalyptus stands). This strategy can contribute to maintaining a diversity of land use/land cover in a heterogeneous landscape and the prevention of the occurrence of large wildfires, fundamental for the implementation of national biodiversity strategies and action plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing need of effective monitoring systems for habitat quality assessment. Methods based on remote sensing (RS) features, such as vegetation indices, have been proposed as promising approaches, complementing methods based on categorical data to support decision making. Here, we evaluate the ability of Earth observation (EO) data, based on a new automated, knowledge-driven system, to predict several indicators for oak woodland habitat quality in a Portuguese Natura 2000 site. We collected in-field data on five habitat quality indicators in vegetation plots from woodland habitats of a landscape undergoing agricultural abandonment. Forty-three predictors were calculated, and a multi-model inference framework was applied to evaluate the predictive strength of each data set for the several quality indicators. Three indicators were mainly explained by predictors related to landscape and neighbourhood structure. Overall, competing models based on the products of the automated knowledge-driven system had the best performance to explain quality indicators, compared to models based on manually classified land cover data. The system outputs in terms of both land cover classes and spectral/landscape indices were considered in the study, which highlights the advantages of combining EO data with RS techniques and improved modelling based on sound ecological hypotheses. Our findings strongly suggest that some features of habitat quality, such as structure and habitat composition, can be effectively monitored from EO data combined with in-field campaigns as part of an integrative monitoring framework for habitat status assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas are experiencing increased levels of human pressure. To enable appropriate conservation action, it is critical to map and monitor changes in the type and extent of land cover/use and habitat classes, which can be related to human pressures over time. Satellite Earth observation (EO) data and techniques offer the opportunity to detect such changes. Yet association with field information and expert interpretation by ecologists is required to interpret, qualify and link these changes to human pressure. There is thus an urgent need to harmonize the technical background of experts in the field of EO data analysis with the terminology of ecologists, protected area management authorities and policy makers in order to provide meaningful, context-specific value-added EO products. This paper builds on the DPSIR framework, providing a terminology to relate the concepts of state, pressures, and drivers with the application of EO analysis. The type of pressure can be inferred through the detection of changes in state (i.e. changes in land cover and/or habitat type and/or condition). Four broad categories of changes in state are identified, i.e. land cover/habitat conversion, land cover/habitat modification, habitat fragmentation and changes in landscape connectivity, and changes in plant community structure. These categories of change in state can be mapped through EO analyses, with the goal of using expert judgement to relate changes in state to causal direct anthropogenic pressures. Drawing on expert knowledge, a set of protected areas located in diverse socio-ecological contexts and subject to a variety of pressures are analysed to (a) link the four categories of changes in state of land cover/habitats to the drivers (anthropogenic pressure), as relevant to specific target land cover and habitat classes; (b) identify (for pressure mapping) the most appropriate spatial and temporal EO data sources as well as interpretations from ecologists and field data useful in connection with EO data analysis. We provide detailed examples for two protected areas, demonstrating the use of EO data for detection of land cover/habitat change, coupled with expert interpretation to relate such change to specific anthropogenic pressures. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations and feasibility of using EO data and techniques to identify anthropogenic pressures, suggesting additional research efforts required in this direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:Coastal dunes are dynamic ecosystems, with vegetation seen as a key element in the response to a continuously changing environment. Aims:We explored co-occurrence patterns of plant species within dune ecosystems along a regional climatic and a local sea–inland gradient. Methods:Five habitat types were surveyed along a sea–inland transect at seven sites along a climatic gradient in Portugal. A multistep framework, considering the relevant scales and gradients, provided standardised scores of species co-occurrence (based on presence/absence and abundance data) for the whole study area and along the climatic and sea–inland gradients. Results:Species diversity was primarily related to the local sea–inland gradient. Co-occurrence analyses indicated the prevalence of species segregation, suggesting competition and species sorting across sites. Within each site, segregation prevailed, but tendencies for species aggregation were observed in some habitat types. Conclusions:To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating species co-occurrences considering all habitat types within the whole dune ecosystem, analysing presence/absence and abundance data against regional and local gradients. Results converge with refined theories of community assembly, constituting added values for assessing multiscalar co-occurrence patterns of plant communities, and thus improving reporting of the condition of dune habitats and biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests are among the most important ecosystems for the provision of hydrological services. These include water supply and water damage mitigation, in the dimensions of quantity, timing and quality. Although the hydrological role of forests is well documented in the literature, a conceptual framework integrating these three dimensions is still missing. In this study, a comprehensive conceptual framework to improve the assessment of hydrological services provided by forests was developed. In addition, the framework was tested by an illustration for northern Portugal, a region with both Mediterranean and Atlantic climatic influences. The TEEB (The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity) framework of ecosystem services was adapted to the relation between forests and water. Then, this new framework was complemented with a set of spatially-explicit indicators that quantify the supply and demand of hydrological services. In addition, the implications of the framework were discussed in the context of the social-ecological systems, using the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, and Responses) model. Finally, the framework and the indicators were illustrated for northern Portugal using the water supply (quantity) and soil erosion control as examples. Results show that the proposed conceptual framework is a useful tool to support land planning and forest management, adapting the provision of hydrological services to the regional biophysical and social conditions. The test of the framework across a heterogeneous region suggests that a spatially explicit combination of system property, function, service and benefit indicators can be an effective way of analysing and managing the supply and demand of the hydrological services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Biodiversity, soil, water, air, climate, landscape and other components are typically analyzed in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) when looking for the effects of a given project on the biological and ecological components of the environment. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) tends to follow the same general pattern, when looking for the environmental effects of plans and programs. In both cases, ecosystem services are often not explicitly considered. We developed a framework to analyze environmental assessment (EA) practice and infer about ecosystem services based on existing evidence from EIA and SEA reports and supporting information. Our framework addresses the relations between ecosystem services and the environmental factors assessed in EIA and SEA, considering the relevant conceptual frameworks such as the ES cascade model and the DPSIR framework applied to ES provision. We base our proposals on results from a preliminary meta-analysis of recent EIA and SEA reports from several types of plans and projects in Portugal, in which implicit assessments of ES were clearly predominant. We discuss the implications of those results and the opportunities to infer about ecosystem services, and conclude on the need for more dedicated and explicit efforts to ecosystem services assessment in EIA and SEA. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The joint and independent effects of dominant tree species, forest patch spatial attributes, and forest structure and management as drivers of plant species richness and composition in small forest patches scattered within an intensive agricultural landscape were addressed. In a landscape with scattered urban and intensive dairy agricultural areas in north-west Portugal, within which small forest patches (dominated by pines, eucalypts, or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest patches, with areas ranging between 0.3 and 3ha, were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity, within dairy farming landscape mosaics dominated by annual forage crops. Explanatory variables were composed of three datasets derived either from GIS mapping or field observations: forest type (dominant tree species), forest patch spatial attributes (patch area and shape index), and measures of forest management and structure (diameter at breast height, tree density per hectare, and percentage cover of vegetation strata). Variations in these forest patch attributes were assessed across forest types, and related to measures of plant diversity (total, native, alien, woody, and herbaceous species richness). Redundancy analysis with variance partitioning was applied to evaluate the joint and independent effects of the three sets of variables on species assemblages. The recent shift in canopy dominance from pine to eucalypt observed in the region appears to be related to a (nonsignificant) tendency for the increase of patch area and to the decrease of patch complexity, as well as several changes in forest structure and management, expressed as a trend to denser tree canopies and lower cover of understory plants. Dominant tree species and attributes related to forest structure and management were the most important factors determining plant diversity. The joint effect of the dominant tree species and forest structure and management resulted in lower levels of plant species richness in eucalypt plantations. These were also more prone to invasion by alien species, probably due to decreased biotic resistance from unsaturated native plant assemblages. Our results draw attention to the importance of dominant tree species and management practices for the maintenance of plant diversity levels (species richness and composition) in dairy landscape mosaics, highlighting the importance of the remnants of semi-natural forests as refuges for plant diversity in the landscape context. Nonetheless, forest plant diversity could further be fostered by promoting naturalness of pine stands and the regeneration of native oak woodlands in some forest areas. This would also diversify the range of ecosystem services that could be provided by forest areas in these peri-urban farmlands. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Maintaining farmland biodiversity in Europe under scenarios of agricultural intensification is a keystone challenge of nature conservation. The recruitment of species from the regional pool to local landscape mosaics and individual patches is known to be determined by multi-scale ecological filters. Here we aimed at clarifying the relative importance of the physical environment, land use and landscape structure, and species traits, as filters of landscape-level plant species diversity in intensive farmland. Vascular plant species diversity was surveyed in 18 dairy farmland mosaics along a gradient of agricultural specialisation in Northern Portugal. Plant species were grouped according to their life strategy, biogeographic origin, and synecological preferences. Species richness was found to be highest in lowland areas, where warmer climate and nutrient-rich soils contribute to balance the potential negative effects of intensive farming. Multiple predictors, related to physical environment (e.g. climate), land use (e.g. crop area), and landscape structure (e.g. mean patch size), were found to influence diversity patterns, even under the homogenizing effects of agricultural intensification. Dissimilarity models discriminated distinct types of responses, with patterns for biogeographic and synecological groups of species being better predicted by landscape based models. In contrast, a dominant role of physical predictors was observed in explaining diversity patterns for plant strategies. Overall, our results confirmed that physical environmental gradients, land use, landscape structure, and species traits interact in determining landscape-level plant diversity patterns. Such patterns may influence agro-ecosystem responses to environmental changes, and thus should be considered in the development of agri-environmental policies and monitoring schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • An integrated regional spatial planning approach for river ecosystems is presented. • Conservation goals and ecosystem services were combined in regional planning. • Mountain areas were identified as key areas for protection of services and habitats. • Riparian forest restoration in river valleys can benefit habitats and soil erosion. • The approach fosters articulation between nature and water directives goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor about monitoring global biodiversity is presented.

Biological invasions are a challenging driver of global environmental change and a fingerprint of the Anthropocene. Remote sensing has gradually become a fundamental tool for understanding invasion patterns, processes and impacts. Nevertheless, a quantitative overview of the progress and extent of remote sensing applications to the management of plant invasions is lacking. This overview is particularly necessary to support the development of more operational frameworks based on remote sensing that can effectively improve the management of invasions. Here, we evaluate and discuss the progress, current state and future opportunities of remote sensing for the research and management of plant invasions. Supported on a systematic literature review, our study shows that, since the 1970s, remote sensing was mainly used to map and identify invasive plants, evolving, around the mid-2000s, towards a tool for assessing invasion impacts. Although remote sensing studies often focus on detecting plant invaders at advanced invasion stages, they can also contribute to the prediction of early invasion stages and to the assessment of their impacts. Despite the growing awareness of technical limitations, remote sensing offers many opportunities to further improve the management of plant invasions. These opportunities relate to the capacity of remote sensing to: (a) detect and evaluate the extent of invasions, assisting on any management option aiming at mitigating plant invasions and their impacts; (b) consider modelling frameworks that anticipate future invasions, supporting the prevention and eradication at early invasion stages and protecting ecosystems and the services they provide; and (c) monitor changes in invasion dominance, as well as the resulting impacts, supporting mitigation, restoration and adaptation actions. Finally, we discuss the way forward to make remote sensing more effective in the scope of invasion management, considering current and future Earth observation missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limitations in the assessment of cultural ecosystem services through quantifiable approaches have constrained our knowledge of how these services can be altered by drivers of global change, such as non-native tree species. Here, we address this caveat by evaluating the effects of non-native tree species, in comparison to native ones, on several categories of cultural services, i.e., recreation and ecotourism, aesthetics, inspiration, and cultural heritage. We propose an indicator-based approach that includes the use of a meta-analysis statistics, the odds ratio, to evaluate photographic, internet and catalogue data, and to infer on the effects of non-native trees on cultural services. We apply our approach to the Iberian Peninsula, exploring potential environmental and socio-economic predictors of non-native tree effects across NUTS-2 administrative regions. Overall, non-native tree effects differed among categories of cultural services and varied with the data type. Non-native trees increased recreation and ecotourism services, when considering data from official tourism entities, but not from nature route users. Data from inventories of urban parks and catalogues of ornamental plant dealers suggested that non-native trees decreased aesthetics services, particularly in Spain, but not in Portugal. Non-native trees also increased cultural heritage services, but no significant effects were observed on inspiration services. Overall, non-native trees showed higher increases in cultural services across regions with lower levels of development (in terms of income, employment and education) and life satisfaction. We suggest that management should emphasise awareness on non-native trees, including the risks involved in promoting the expansion of potentially invasive species. Efforts to raise awareness should prioritise official tourism entities and ornamental plant dealers, with a special focus on less developed regions. Our proposed approach represents a pioneer assessment of the relations between non-native trees and cultural ecosystem services, supporting strategic management in Iberia. The focus on widely available data sources enables reproducibility and application in assessments worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001–2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire disturbances can profoundly impact many aspects of both ecosystem functioning and resilience. This study proposes a satellite-based approach to assess ecosystem resilience to wildfires based on post-fire trajectories of four key functional dimensions of ecosystems related to carbon, water, and energy exchanges: (i) vegetation primary production; (ii) vegetation and soil water content; (iii) land surface albedo; and (iv) land surface sensible heat. For each dimension, several metrics extracted from satellite image time-series, at the short, medium and long-term, describe both resistance (the ability to withstand environmental disturbances) and recovery (the ability to pull back towards equilibrium). We used MODIS data for 2000–2018 to analyze trajectories after the 2005 wildfires in NW Iberian Peninsula. Primary production exhibited low resistance, with abrupt breaks immediately after the fire, but rapid recoveries, starting within six months after the fire and reaching stable pre-fire levels two years after. Loss of water content after the fire showed slightly higher resistance but slower and more gradual recoveries than primary production. On the other hand, albedo exhibited varying levels of resistance and recovery, with post-fire breaks often followed by increases to levels above pre-fire within the first two years, but sometimes with effects that persisted for many years. Finally, wildfire effects on sensible heat were generally more transient, with effects starting to dissipate after one year and overall rapid recoveries. Our approach was able to successfully depict key features of post-fire processes of ecosystem functioning at different timeframes. The added value of our multi-indicator approach for analyzing ecosystem resilience to wildfires was highlighted by the independence and complementarity among the proposed indicators targeting four dimensions of ecosystem functioning. We argue that such approaches can provide an enhanced characterization of ecosystem resilience to disturbances, ultimately upholding promising implications for post-fire ecosystem management and targeting different dimensions of ecosystem functioning. [Display omitted] • Resilience metrics were extracted from satellite-based post-fire trajectories • Abrupt breaks in primary production were usually followed by rapid recovery • Effects on water content were lagged, and its recovery is slower • Surface albedo showed complex responses, while effects on sensible heat were transient • An integrative and comprehensive satellite-based approach to ecosystem resilience was proposed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme ("Core area", "Buffer zone" and "Transition area") to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions. • Biodiversity, ecosystem services and fire intensity were integrated in multi-zoning conservation planning. • A redesign of management zones is required to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services in coming decades. • Core areas are under high fire hazard and require urgent changes in management. • Both climate- and fire-smart policies can enhance protected areas' effectiveness and resiliency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire simulation models are useful to advance fire research and improve landscape management. However, a better understanding of these tools is crucial to increase their reliability and expansion into research fields where their application remains limited (e.g., ecosystem services). We evaluated several components of the BFOLDS Fire Regime Module and then tested its ability to simulate fire regime attributes in a Mediterranean mountainous landscape. Based on model outputs, we assessed the landscape fire regulation capacity over time and its implications for supporting the climate regulation ecosystem service. We found that input data quality and the adjustment of fuel and fire behaviour parameters are crucial to accurately emulating key fire regime attributes. Besides, the high predictive capacity shown by BFOLDS-FRM allows to reliably inform the planning and sustainable management of fire-prone mountainous areas of the Mediterranean. Moreover, we identified and discussed modelling limitations and made recommendations to improve future model applications. • Model evaluation supports the application of BFOLDS-FRM to Mediterranean landscapes. • The model adequately emulates key fire regime attributes in mountain landscapes. • Model outputs allow estimation of fire- and climate-related functions and services. • BFOLDS-FRM can support fire-smart management of Mediterranean mountain landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Primary productivity drives habitat dynamics of top predators. • Remotely sensed ecosystem functioning improves spatial conservation prioritization. • New indicators of adequacy, stability and legacy of conservation areas were proposed. • The indicators can be computed for other ecosystem functioning attributes and taxa. The need to incorporate habitat dynamics into spatial conservation prioritization is increasingly recognized but often limited by the lack of available temporal data. To overcome this limitation, model-assisted monitoring has been advocated and developed over the last decade. However, predictive modelling often relies on static habitat features or interpolated climate data, failing to consider other relevant ecological processes such as primary productivity and its dynamics. The importance of primary productivity relies on its key role in determining the availability of food resources via trophic cascades. This study aims to assess how the spatiotemporal variation in the habitat quality for top predators (using raptors as case study) can be affected by temporal fluctuations in primary productivity, and whether its incorporation into habitat modelling improves predictions in space and time. Through model predictions we then incorporate interannual habitat-quality dynamics into spatial conservation planning to identify priority areas for raptor conservation based on a new set of dynamic priority-area indices. Using raptor occurrence data from two surveys (2001 and 2014), we found high model performance and transferability for all species (AUC 2001 = 0.89 ± 0.10 and Boyce's Index 2001 of 0.78 ± 0.20; AUC 2014 = 0.89 ± 0.12 and Boyce's Index 2014 of 0.87 ± 0.06). Annual mean and minimum values of EVI (indicators of productivity and phenology, respectively) and elevation were the most important predictor variables for most raptor species. However, the standard deviation of EVI (an indicator of seasonality) was also found to be an important predictor for migratory species breeding in shrublands and croplands. Interannual model predictions showed a large interannual variation in habitat availability across species, partially associated with regional land-use changes. Interannual habitat-quality dynamics was translated into marked changes in the priority areas for raptor conservation —areas mostly associated with deciduous forest and water environments (rivers and dams) in our study area. Our results shed light on the role of intra- and interannual dynamics of primary productivity in driving habitat quality for top predators. They also confirm the potential of remotely sensed ecosystem functioning attributes to inform about habitat-quality dynamics in a cost-effective, standardized and repeatable way. Incorporating interannual dynamics of primary productivity in habitat modelling supports raptor conservation prioritization by informing about adequacy, stability and legacy of raptor conservation areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rewilding has been proposed as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation in abandoned landscapes. However, rewilding is challenged by the increasing fire risk associated with more flammable landscapes, and the loss of open-habitat specialist species. Contrastingly, supporting High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) has been also highlighted as a valuable option, but the effective implementation of agricultural policies often fails leading to uncertain scenarios wherein the effects of wildfire management remain largely unexplored. Herein, we simulated fire-landscape dynamics to evaluate how fire suppression scenarios affect fire regime and biodiversity (102 species of vertebrates) under rewilding and HNVf policies in the future (2050), in a transnational biosphere reserve (Gerês-Xurés Mountains, Portugal-Spain). Rewilding and HNVf scenarios were modulated by three different levels of fire suppression effectiveness. Then, we quantified scenario effects on fire regime (burned and suppressed areas) and biodiversity (habitat suitability change for 2050). Simulations confirm HNVf as a long-term opportunity for fire suppression (up to 30,000 ha of additional suppressed areas between 2031 and 2050 in comparison to rewilding scenario) and for conservation (benefiting around 60% of species). Rewilding benefits some species (20%), including critically endangered, vulnerable and endemic taxa, while several species (33%) also profit from open habitats created by fire. Although HNVf remains the best scenario, rewilding reinforced by low fire suppression management may provide a nature-based solution when societal support through agricultural policies fails. Unlabelled Image • HNVf is a long-term opportunity for fire suppression and biodiversity conservation. • HNVf management would benefit the majority of species (more than 60%). • Rewilding benefits up to 20% of species, including endangered/endemic taxa. • Up to 33% of species profit from open habitats created by fire. • Fire-mediated rewilding is a nature-based solution when agricultural policies fail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how non-material benefits from ecosystems, known as cultural services, are shaped by non-native biota is paramount to manage biological invasions and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite recent advances, assessments of cultural services still lack an explicit temporal dimension, which is relevant for developing monitoring systems. Here, we evaluate the spatiotemporal contributions of non-native trees to landscape aesthetics and nature recreation in a National Park in Portugal. We use a multimodel framework to understand how those cultural services (evaluated from social media photos) relate to the environmental context (physical and visual accessibility, and wilderness; derived from ancillary GIS data) and landscape visual-sensory features (colour diversity, landscape heterogeneity, and vegetation functioning). The latter were computed from satellite imagery (MODIS and Sentinel-2 MSI sensors) for the four seasons of the year: Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn. We found that, during Autumn, contributions of non-native trees prevailed mostly in landscapes with greater colour diversity (green-band, Sentinel 2). During Spring, their contributions prevailed in landscapes with lower wilderness and heterogeneous levels. In Winter, those contributions were less evident in more remote areas. As for Summer, no significant relations were found for those cultural contributions. These results are congruent with the phenology of dominant tree species: deciduous natives occurring with coniferous non-natives and evergreen invaders, leading to higher colour diversity in Autumn, versus the dominance of blooming invaders in accessible areas during Spring. Results also seem to match the seasonal dynamics of touristic demand in the National Park: the pursuit of wilder areas for ecotourism in Winter, versus the experience of popular recreational activities in Summer. We discuss the usefulness of Earth observations in the research of cultural services and, particularly, for supporting SDG targets 15.8 (on invasive species), 8.9 (touristic revenues) and 12.8 (nature awareness). Unlabelled Image • We assessed the contributions of non-native trees to cultural ecosystem services. • Contributions were analysed from social media across a national park in Portugal. • Satellite-based visual-sensory and spectral variables were used as model predictors. • Contributions differed according to tree phenology and tourism seasonal dynamics. • Insights contribute to Sustainable Development Targets 8.9, 12. 8 and 15.8. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land-use changes are contributing to impacts on global ecosystem functioning. These effects are particularly severe in areas undergoing land abandonment and extreme wildfire events, such as the Mediterranean regions of the Iberian Peninsula. Previous studies have evaluated the impacts of land management on fire mitigation and biodiversity (species distribution and species richness), but how such strategies influence functional diversity remains unexplored. This study investigates how alternative land-fire management strategies may affect functional diversity. We modeled for 2050 for the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés (Portugal-Spain). Land-use scenarios simulated processes of land abandonment ("business-as-usual"-BAU) and the implementation of EU rural policies ("high nature value farmlands"-HNVf), and were combined with three fire suppression levels. Species distribution models (102 vertebrates) were projected to each scenario, and functional diversity indices were consequently calculated. The highest functional richness was predicted for BAU scenarios, probably representing the benefits to unique species that deliver singular functions. The HNVf scenarios provided the highest functional divergence, probably indicating a high niche differentiation and low resource competition amongst agricultural communities. HNVf was the most beneficial scenario for ecosystem functioning, while fire suppression did not affect functional diversity. Despite the proneness to burn of our study area and the effects of firefighting on its fire regime, land-use policies are expected to have greater influence than fire suppression effects on functional diversity. These findings suggest that different facets of functional diversity will be unevenly influenced by fire-landscape dynamics driven by the land-use policies to be implemented in the upcoming decades., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate  = 0.947; AUC LC  = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Invasive species are increasing in number, extent and impact worldwide. Effective invasion management has thus become a core socio-ecological challenge. To tackle this challenge, integrating spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion processes with modelling approaches is a promising approach. The inclusion of dynamic processes in such modelling frameworks (i.e. dynamic or hybrid models, here defined as models that integrate both dynamic and static approaches) adds an explicit temporal dimension to the study and management of invasions, enabling the prediction of invasions and optimisation of multi-scale management and governance. However, the extent to which dynamic approaches have been used for that purpose is under-investigated. Based on a literature review, we examined the extent to which dynamic modelling has been used to address invasions worldwide. We then evaluated how the use of dynamic modelling has evolved through time in the scope of invasive species management. The results suggest that modelling, in particular dynamic modelling, has been increasingly applied to biological invasions, especially to support management decisions at local scales. Also, the combination of dynamic and static modelling approaches (hybrid models with a spatially explicit output) can be especially effective, not only to support management at early invasion stages (from prevention to early detection), but also to improve the monitoring of invasion processes and impact assessment. Further development and testing of such hybrid models may well be regarded as a priority for future research aiming to improve the management of invasions across scales., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social-ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social-ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social-ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.