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We examined the association between serum concentrations of β-alanine, a metabolite of carnosine and anserine, and the risk of dementia in a general population of elderly Japanese persons. In 2007, 1,475 residents of Hisayama, Japan, aged 60–79 years and without dementia were divided into 4 groups according to quartiles of serum β-alanine concentrations (quartile 1, lowest; quartile 4, highest) and followed for a median of 5.3 years. During follow-up, 117 subjects developed all-cause dementia (Alzheimer in 77 cases and vascular dementia in 31). The risk of all-cause dementia decreased with increasing serum β-alanine levels after adjustment for potential confounding factors (quartile 2, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45, 1.18); quartile 3, HR = 0.50 (95% CI: 0.28, 0.89); quartile 4, HR = 0.50 (95% CI: 0.27, 0.92); P = 0.01 for trend). A similar inverse association was observed for Alzheimer disease (quartile 2, HR = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.44, 1.38); quartile 3, HR = 0.53 (95% CI: 0.26, 1.06); quartile 4, HR = 0.53 (95% CI: 0.25, 1.10); P = 0.04 for trend) but not for vascular dementia. We found that higher serum β-alanine levels were significantly associated with lower risks of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease. Because serum β-alanine levels reflect intakes of carnosine/anserine, higher intakes of carnosine/anserine might be beneficial for the prevention of dementia.

OBJECTIVE This study investigated the association between serum ethylamine levels as an indicator of l-theanine consumption and the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 2,253 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40–79 years without diabetes were monitored for 7 years. Serum ethylamine levels were divided into quartiles: ≤0.86, 0.87–2.10, 2.11–5.28, and ≥5.29 ng/mL. Kinetic analysis of serum ethylamine concentrations was performed after ingestion of l-theanine–rich green tea products containing 8 mg of l-theanine by 12 healthy volunteers. RESULTS During follow-up, 282 subjects developed type 2 diabetes. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes decreased significantly with elevating levels of serum ethylamine (P for trend = 0.04). This association remained unchanged after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was significantly lower in the fourth quartile of serum ethylamine than in the first quartile (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49–0.98). This trend of decrease in diabetic risk across serum ethylamine levels was more prominent in middle-aged subjects and in subjects with prediabetes, obesity, or insulin resistance. Kinetic analysis estimated that the minimum concentration at the steady state was >5.90 ng/mL in the case of twice-daily ingestion with an interval of 12 h. CONCLUSIONS Higher serum ethylamine was significantly associated with lower risk of the development of type 2 diabetes in a general Japanese population. The measurement of serum ethylamine concentration would be a useful biomarker for the objective estimation of l-theanine consumption.

Context Although recent genetic studies have identified many susceptibility loci associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), the usefulness of such loci for precision medicine remains uncertain. Objective This study investigated the impact of genetic risk score (GRS) on the development of T2D in a general Japanese population. Participants The current study consists of 1465 subjects aged 40 to 79 years without diabetes who underwent a health examination in 2002. Design The GRS was generated using the literature-based effect size for T2D of 84 susceptibility loci for the Japanese population, and the risk estimates of GRS on the incidence of T2D were computed by using a Cox proportional hazard model in a 10-year follow-up study. The influence of GRS on the predictive ability was estimated with Harrell C statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI). Results During the 10-year follow-up, 199 subjects experienced T2D. The risk of developing T2D increased significantly with elevating quintiles of GRS (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for the fifth vs first quintile, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.83 to 4.44). When incorporating GRS into the multivariable model comprising environmental risk factors, the Harrell C statistics (95% CI) increased from 0.681 (0.645 to 0.717) to 0.707 (0.672 to 0.742) and the predictive ability of T2D was significantly improved (IDI, 0.0376; 95% CI, 0.0284 to 0.0494; cNRI, 0.3565; 95% CI, 0.1278 to 0.5829). GRS was also associated with the risk of T2D independently of environmental risk factors. Conclusions These findings suggest the usefulness of GRS for identifying a high-risk population together with environmental risk factors in the Japanese population.

Summary The aim of the present study was to examine the prevalence and causes of adult epilepsy in a general Japanese population. We examined a total of 3333 Japanese residents in the town of Hisayama aged ≥40 years in 2012‐2013. The examination was performed mainly at the municipal center for health promotion, but some subjects were examined in their homes, hospitals, or nursing homes. Twenty‐three subjects had a diagnosis of epilepsy. The prevalence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of epilepsy per 1000 was 6.9 (4.1‐9.7) in total, 4.9 (1.3‐8.5) in men, and 8.4 (4.3‐12.5) in women (P = 0.23 between sexes). The prevalence of epilepsy was significantly higher in the elderly (aged ≥65 years; 10.3 per 1000 [95% CI 5.4‐15.1]) than in the middle‐aged (aged 40‐64 years; 3.6 per 1000 [95% CI 0.7‐6.4]; P = 0.02). The major cause of epilepsy was cerebrovascular diseases (n = 11; 48% of the epilepsy patients). More than half of the epilepsy patients experienced the first episode of seizure in older age (≥65 years; n = 13; 57%). The findings of this study suggest the clinical importance of the prevention of cerebrovascular diseases to reduce the burden of epilepsy in the future.

Background and Purpose: Little is known about how β-cell dysfunction affects clinical outcome after ischemic stroke. We examined whether β-cell function is associated with clinical outcome after acute ischemic stroke and if so, whether insulin resistance influences this association in a prospective study of patients with acute stroke. Methods: A total of 3590 nondiabetic patients with acute ischemic stroke (mean age, 71 years) were followed up for 3 months. β-Cell function was assessed using the homeostasis model assessment for β-cell function (HOMA-β). Study outcomes were poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score, 3–6) and stroke recurrence at 3 months after stroke onset and neurological deterioration (≥2-point increase in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score) at discharge. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between quintile levels of serum HOMA-β and clinical outcomes. Results: The age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios for poor functional outcome and neurological deterioration increased significantly with decreasing HOMA-β levels ( P for trend, Conclusions: Our findings suggest that β-cell dysfunction is significantly associated with poor short-term clinical outcome independently of insulin resistance in nondiabetic patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Numerous oral indigenous microorganisms are constantly introduced into the stomach via the laryngopharynx, and a portion of these microorganisms irregularly reaches the lower airways and lungs. This study investigated the association between airflow limitation and the status of tongue microbiota, which is a primary source of ingested oral bacterial populations. The study population consisted of 484 community-dwelling adults aged 70–80 years inhabiting Hisayama town, Japan, who underwent a regular health examination including dental examination and spirometry test in 2016. The bacterial density and composition of their tongue microbiota were determined using a previously used 16S rRNA gene to understand their relationship with oral health conditions. The present cross-sectional study compared the tongue microbiota status between elderly individuals with airflow limitation and those with normal airflow. The total bacterial density of the tongue microbiota of individuals with airflow limitation was significantly higher than that of individuals with normal airflow. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a high-biomass tongue microbiota was significantly associated with airflow limitation after adjustment for smoking intensity and other covariates (adjusted OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.01–2.60). Of the predominant commensals, higher amounts of Prevotella melaninogenica and Actinomyces odontolyticus were associated with a higher prevalence of airflow limitation. These results indicate that increased bacterial burden in the tongue microbiota is associated with a higher prevalence of airflow limitation., Bacterial enrichment in the tongue microbiota is associated with airflow limitation characterising COPD in community-dwelling elderly adults https://bit.ly/36qMf6G

Background Epidemiological evidence has shown that serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations, a diagnostic biomarker for heart failure, are positively associated with cardiovascular risk. Since NT-proBNP in serum is excreted in urine, it is hypothesized that urinary NT-proBNP concentrations are correlated with serum concentrations and linked with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Methods A total of 3060 community-dwelling residents aged ≥ 40 years without history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were followed up for a median of 8.3 years (2007–2015). Serum and urinary concentrations of NT-proBNP at baseline were compared. The hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between NT-proBNP concentrations and the risk of developing CVD were computed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results The median values (interquartile ranges) of serum and urinary NT-proBNP concentrations at baseline were 56 (32–104) pg/mL and 20 (18–25) pg/mL, respectively. There was a strong quadratic correlation between the serum and urinary concentrations of NT-proBNP (coefficient of determination [R2] = 0.72): urinary concentrations of 20, 27, and 43 pg/mL were equivalent to serum concentrations of 55, 125, and 300 pg/mL, respectively. During the follow-up period, 170 subjects developed CVD. The age- and sex-adjusted risk of CVD increased significantly with higher urinary NT-proBNP levels (P for trend < 0.001). This association remained significant after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (P for trend = 0.009). The multivariable-adjusted risk of developing CVD almost doubled in subjects with urinary NT-proBNP of ≥ 43 pg/mL as compared to those with urinary NT-proBNP of ≤ 19 pg/mL (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.20–3.56). Conclusions The present study demonstrated that urinary NT-proBNP concentrations were well-correlated with serum concentrations and were positively associated with cardiovascular risk. Given that urine sampling is noninvasive and does not require specially trained personnel, urinary NT-proBNP concentrations have the potential to be an easy and useful biomarker for detecting people at higher cardiovascular risk.

ObjectiveTo assess the association of regional grey matter atrophy with dementia risk in a general older Japanese population.MethodsWe followed 1158 dementia-free Japanese residents aged ≥65 years for 5.0 years. Regional grey matter volume (GMV) at baseline was estimated by applying voxel-based morphometry methods. The GMV-to-total brain volume ratio (GMV/TBV) was calculated, and its association with dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. We assessed whether the predictive ability of a model based on known dementia risk factors could be improved by adding the total number of regions with grey matter atrophy among dementia-related brain regions, where the cut-off value for grey matter atrophy in each region was determined by receiver operating characteristic curves.ResultsDuring the follow-up, 113 participants developed all-cause dementia, including 83 with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Lower GMV/TBV of the medial temporal lobe, insula, hippocampus and amygdala were significantly/marginally associated with higher risk of all-cause dementia and AD (all p for trend ≤0.08). The risks of all-cause dementia and AD increased significantly with increasing total number of brain regions exhibiting grey matter atrophy (both p for trend ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the total number of regions with grey matter atrophy among the medial temporal lobe, insula, hippocampus and amygdala is a significant predictor for developing dementia, especially AD, in the general older population.

Background The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.Methods and Results:A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years. Conclusions The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

Background Few risk models are available to predict future onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) in workers. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for new-onset AF, using annual health checkup (HC) data with electrocardiogram findings. Methods and Results We retrospectively included 56,288 factory or office workers (mean age = 51.5 years, 33.0% women) who underwent a HC at a medical center and fulfilled the following criteria; age ≥ 40 years, no history of AF, and greater than 1 annual follow-up HC in 2013–2016. Using Cox models with the Akaike information criterion, we developed and compared prediction models for new-onset AF with and without the Minnesota code information. We externally validated the discrimination accuracy of the models in a general Japanese population cohort, the Hisayama cohort. During the median 3.0-year follow-up, 209 (0.37%) workers developed AF. Age, sex, waist circumference, blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and γ-GTP were associated with new-onset of AF. Using the Minnesota code information, the AUC significantly improved from 0.82 to 0.84 in the derivation cohort and numerically improved from 0.78 to 0.79 in the validation cohort, and from 0.77 to 0.79 in the Hisayama cohort. The NRI and IDI significantly improved in all and male subjects in both the derivation and validation cohorts, and in female subjects in both the validation and the Hisayama cohorts. Conclusions We developed useful risk model with Minnesota code information for predicting new-onset AF from large worker population validated in the original and external cohorts, although study interpretation is limited by small improvement of AUC.

Aim We investigated the influence of weight change on concurrent changes in predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and individual CVD risk factors over time. Methods A total of 2,140 community-dwellers aged 40-74 years participated in both 2002 and 2007 health examinations. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2. Weight trajectories were classified as: "stable obese" (obese at both examinations), "obese to nonobese" (obese in 2002 but nonobese in 2007), "nonobese to obese" (nonobese in 2002 but obese in 2007), or "stable nonobese" (nonobese at both examinations). We compared changes in the model-predicted risk for CVD and individual CVD risk factors across weight-change categories. Results The predicted risk for CVD increased during 5 years in all groups; the increment in the predicted risk for CVD was smallest in the obese to nonobese participants and steepest in the nonobese to obese subjects. Compared with the stable obese participants, the obese to nonobese participants had greater favorable changes in waist circumferences, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum triglycerides, and liver enzymes. For all these parameters, opposite trends were observed when comparing the nonobese to obese participants with the stable nonobese group. Conclusions We demonstrated the favorable association of losing weight in obese people and avoiding excessive weight gain in nonobese people with global risk of future CVD and individual CVD risk factors in a real-world setting. The findings could improve behavioral lifestyle interventions that provide information on the health consequences of weight change at health checkups.

Our aim was to compare the contributions of impaired beta cell function (IBF) and insulin resistance with the development of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese community.A total of 2094 residents aged 40-79 years without diabetes underwent a health examination including a 75 g OGTT in 2007. Participants were divided into four groups according to the presence or absence of IBF (insulinogenic index/HOMA-IR ≤28.5) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR ≥1.61) and were followed up for 7 years (2007-2014). Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for type 2 diabetes. The population attributable fractions (PAFs) due to IBF, insulin resistance, and their combination were calculated.At baseline, the prevalence of isolated IBF, isolated insulin resistance, and both IBF and insulin resistance were 5.4%, 24.1% and 9.5%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 272 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) and PAFs (95% CI) for type 2 diabetes were 6.3 (4.3, 9.2) and 13.3% (8.7, 17.7) in the participants with isolated IBF, 1.9 (1.3, 2.7) and 10.5% (4.0, 16.6) in those with isolated insulin resistance, and 8.0 (5.7, 11.4) and 29.3% (23.0, 35.1) in those with both IBF and insulin resistance, respectively, compared with the participants without either.The present study suggests that the combination of IBF and insulin resistance makes the main contribution to the development of type 2 diabetes in Japanese communities.

The identification of individuals at high risk of developing hypertension can be of great value to improve the efficiency of primary prevention strategies for hypertension. The objective of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for incident hypertension based on prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population. A total of 982 subjects aged 40-59 years without hypertension at baseline were followed up for 10 years (2002-12) for the incidence of hypertension. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg, or the use of antihypertensive agents. The risk prediction model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A simple risk scoring system was also established based on the developed model. During the follow-up period (median 10 years, interquartile range 5-10 years), 302 subjects (120 men and 182 women) developed new-onset hypertension. The risk prediction model for hypertension consisted of age, sex, SBP, DBP, use of glucose-lowering agents, body mass index (BMI), parental history of hypertension, moderate-to-high alcohol intake, and the interaction between age and BMI. The developed model demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C statistic=0.812 [95% confidence interval, 0.791-0.834]; optimism-corrected C statistic based on 200 bootstrap samples=0.804) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino χ2 statistic=12.2). This risk prediction model is a useful guide for estimating an individual's absolute risk for hypertension and could facilitate the management of Japanese individuals at high risk of developing hypertension in the future.

Few studies have examined the association between the accumulation of unhealthy eating habits and the likelihood of obesity or central obesity in a general Japanese population. We examined this association in a sample of 1906 community-dwelling Japanese subjects (age: 40&ndash, 74 years) who participated in a health check-up in 2014. A face-to-face questionnaire interview was conducted to collect information about three unhealthy eating habits, i.e., snacking, eating quickly, and eating late-evening meals. Obesity was defined as body mass index &ge, 25 kg/m2 and central obesity was defined as waist circumference &ge, 90 cm in men and &ge, 80 cm in women. The odds ratios (OR) were estimated by using a logistic regression analysis. Subjects with any one of the three eating habits had a significantly higher likelihood of obesity than those without that habit after adjusting for confounding factors. The multivariable-adjusted OR for obesity increased linearly with an increase in the number of accumulated unhealthy eating habits (p for trend &lt, 0.001). Similar associations were observed for central obesity. Our findings suggest that modifying each unhealthy eating habit and avoiding an accumulation of multiple unhealthy eating habits might be important to reduce the likelihood of obesity.

Background Folate and vitamin B-12 are essential nutrients for normal cell growth and replication, but the association of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk remains uncertain. Objective This study was performed to investigate the associations of serum folate and vitamin B-12 concentrations with mortality risk and test whether the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism modifies these associations. Methods A total of 3050 Japanese community residents aged ≥40 y were prospectively followed-up for mortality between 2002 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs of mortality. Results During a median follow-up period of 10.2 y, 336 participants died. Higher serum folate concentrations were associated with lower risks of all-cause mortality [multivariable-adjusted HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96 for the second tertile (8.8-12.2 nmol/L; median 10.4 nmol/L) and HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.80 for the third tertile (≥12.5 nmol/L; median 15.6 nmol/L) serum folate concentrations compared with the first tertile (≤8.6 nmol/L; median 7.0 nmol/L)]. This association remained significant in all sensitivity analyses. Spline analyses showed a steady decline in all-cause mortality risk with increasing serum folate concentrations up to 20-25 nmol/L. This association persisted regardless of the MTHFR C677T genotypes. For serum vitamin B-12, the multivariable-adjusted HR of 1.32 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.79) of all-cause mortality was marginally significantly greater in the first tertile compared with the second tertile. This association was attenuated and nonsignificant after the exclusion of participants with a history of cardiovascular disease or cancer, or participants aged ≥85 y at baseline, or deaths in the first 3 y of follow-up. Conclusions Serum folate concentrations were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in Japanese adults. Serum vitamin B-12 concentrations were not consistently associated with all-cause mortality risk after accounting for reverse-causation bias.

IntroductionTo investigate the associations of 30 min postload plasma glucose (30 mPG) levels during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the risk of future diabetes in a general Japanese population.Research design and methodsA total of 2957 Japanese community-dwelling residents without diabetes, aged 40–79 years, participated in the examinations in 2007 and 2008 (participation rate, 77.1%). Among them, 2162 subjects who received 75 g OGTT in a fasting state with measurements of plasma glucose level at 0, 30, and 120 min were followed up for 7 years (2007–2014). Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs of each index for the development of type 2 diabetes using continuous variables and quartiles with adjustment for traditional risk factors. The influence of 30 mPG on the predictive ability was estimated with Harrell’s C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the continuous net reclassification index (cNRI).ResultsDuring follow-up, 275 subjects experienced type 2 diabetes. Elevated 30 mPG levels were significantly associated with increased risk of developing diabetes (pConclusionsElevated 30 mPG levels were associated with increased risk of diabetes, and inclusion of 30 mPG levels significantly improved the predictive ability for future diabetes, suggesting that 30 mPG may be useful for identifying high-risk populations for type 2 diabetes.

Importance Myopic maculopathy is a leading cause of irreversible visual impairment worldwide. Moreover, the burden of myopic maculopathy has been expected to increase owing to the rising prevalence of myopia globally. However, there is limited epidemiologic evidence regarding the incidence of and risk factors for myopic maculopathy. This study from Japan, with a relatively high prevalence of myopia, could provide valuable information related to these issues. Objective To estimate the incidence of myopic maculopathy and its risk factors in Hisayama in southwestern Japan. Design, Setting, and Participants A population-based prospective cohort study in a Japanese community in Hisayama, Japan. The study included a total of 2164 residents 40 years or older who had no myopic maculopathy at the baseline eye examination in 2012 and underwent follow-up eye examinations in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Incidence of myopic maculopathy. The grades of myopic maculopathy were categorized based on the criteria of the Meta-analysis of Pathologic Myopia Study Group classification system. Results The mean (SD) age of the study participants was 62.4 (10.9) years, and the proportion of men was 42.5% (920 participants). In the follow-up examination in 2017, 24 patients developed myopic maculopathy. The 5-year cumulative incidence of myopic maculopathy was 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6-1.5) overall, 1.4% (95% CI, 0.6-2.2) for men, and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.4-1.4) for women. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that older age (per 1 year; odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11) and longer axial length (per 1 mm; OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 2.19-3.95) were associated with incident myopic maculopathy. Conclusions and Relevance Twenty-four study participants (1%) developed myopic maculopathy during the 5-year study period, which is much higher than the rate in a previous study on a Chinese population. We also confirmed that aging and longer axial length were independent and significant risk factors for myopic maculopathy. These findings should be reviewed among various populations in other parts of the world.

BACKGROUND Both chronic kidney disease and brain white matter hyperintensities (WMH) are known to be risk factors of dementia and mortality.Methods and Results:In 2012, 1,214 community-dwelling Japanese subjects aged ≥65 years underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans and a comprehensive health examination. This study investigated associations of the urinary albumin : creatinine ratio (UACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with the WMH volume to intracranial volume (WMHV : ICV) ratio, and the association of the combination of UACR and the WMHV : ICV ratio with cognitive decline and mortality risk. The geometric mean of the WMHV : ICV ratio was 0.223% in the entire study population, and increased significantly with higher UACR levels after adjusting for potential confounding factors (0.213% for normoalbuminuria, 0.248% for microalbuminuria, and 0.332% for macroalbuminuria; Ptrend=0.01). In contrast, there was no clear association between eGFR and the WMHV : ICV ratio. Compared with subjects with normoalbuminuria and a smaller WMHV : ICV ratio (

Biomarkers for predicting future development of atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been fully established in general populations. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive ability of serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) for the development of AF.A total of 3126 community-dwelling Japanese subjects aged ≥ 40 years without a history of AF in 2002 were followed up for a median of 10.2 years. Serum NT-proBNP levels at baseline were divided into four categories (≤ 54, 55-124, 125-299, and ≥ 300 pg/mL) according to the current guidelines and prior reports. The hazard ratios for the development of AF were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period, 153 subjects developed new-onset AF. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of AF increased significantly with higher serum NT-proBNP levels (p 0.001 for trend). The association remained significant after adjustment for known risk factors for AF and cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: ≤ 54 pg/mL: 1.00 [reference]; 55-124 pg/mL: 1.72 [1.00-2.97]; 125-299 pg/mL: 3.95 [2.23-6.98]; ≥ 300 pg/mL: 8.51 [4.48-16.17]; p 0.001 for trend). Furthermore, incorporation of serum NT-proBNP levels into the model consisting of known risk factors for AF and cardiovascular disease significantly improved the predictive ability for developing AF (Harrell's c-statistics: 0.828 to 0.844, p = 0.01; continuous net reclassification improvement: 0.41, p 0.001; integrated discrimination improvement: 0.031, p 0.001).Serum NT-proBNP levels can be a risk biomarker for predicting future development of AF in a general Japanese population.

Disruption of the intestinal microbiota caused by intensive chemotherapy, irradiation and antibiotics can result in development of severe gut graft-versus-host disease and infectious complications, leading to poorer outcomes among allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients. Although the oral cavity is also densely colonized by indigenous microorganisms, the bacterial composition in allo-HSCT recipients remains unclear. We determined the tongue microbiota composition of 45 patients with hematological disorders on the day of transplantation and compared them to 164 community-dwelling adults. The V1–V2 regions of the 16S rRNA gene sequences demonstrated that the allo-HSCT recipients had less diverse and distinct microbiota from that of community-dwelling adults. The full-length 16S rRNA gene sequences identified 146 bacterial taxa in the microbiota of allo-HSCT recipients, of which 34 bacterial taxa did not correspond to bacteria primarily inhabiting the oral cavity deposited in the expanded Human Oral Microbiome Database. Notably, the detection of Staphylococcus haemolyticus and/or Ralstonia pickettii was significantly associated with a higher risk of mortality during the follow-up period. These results demonstrate that the oral cavity of allo-HSCT recipients is colonized by a disrupted microbiota on the day of transplantation and suggest that detection of specific nonindigenous taxa could be a predictor of transplant outcome., Author summary Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) recipients are subjected to intensive chemotherapy, irradiation and antibiotics which could affect the intestinal as well as oral microbiota. We employed full-length 16S rRNA gene sequencing analysis with high taxonomic resolution using a third-generation sequencer, PacBio Sequel, and determined the bacterial composition of the tongue microbiota of allo-HSCT recipients after conditioning regimens. This comprehensive molecular approach identified 34 taxa uncommon in the oral cavity, which constituted 0–99.4% (median, 0.27%) of each tongue microbiota. Of them, Staphylococcus haemolyticus and Ralstonia pickettii were frequently found in allo-HSCT recipients, and their detection was significantly associated with a higher risk of mortality during the follow-up period. These results suggest that careful attention should be given to the bacterial composition of the disrupted oral microbiota in allo-HSCT recipients.

Objective To investigate the association between serum soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), a soluble type of an innate immune receptor expressed on the microglia, and the risk of dementia. Methods A total of 1,349 Japanese community residents aged 60 and older without dementia were followed prospectively for 10 years (2002-2012). Serum sTREM2 levels were quantified by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and divided into quartiles. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of serum sTREM2 levels on the risk of dementia. Results During the follow-up, 300 subjects developed all-cause dementia; 193 had Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 85 had vascular dementia (VaD). The age- and sex-adjusted incidences of all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD elevated significantly with higher serum sTREM2 levels (all p for trend 0.11). Interpretation The present findings suggest a significant association between increased serum sTREM2 levels and the risk of developing all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD in the general elderly Japanese population. ANN NEUROL 2019;85:47-58.

Background and aims Predicting cardiovascular events is of practical benefit for disease prevention. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate an updated risk prediction model for cardiovascular diseases and its subtypes. Methods A total of 2462 community residents aged 40–84 years were followed up for 24 years. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, and separately for stroke and coronary heart diseases. The risk assessment ability of the developed model was evaluated, and a bootstrapping method was used for internal validation. The predicted risk was translated into a simplified scoring system. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate clinical usefulness. Results The multivariable model for cardiovascular diseases included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking habits, and regular exercise as predictors. The models for stroke and coronary heart diseases incorporated both shared and unique variables. The developed models showed good discrimination with little evidence of overfitting (optimism-corrected Harrell's C statistics 0.726–0.777) and calibrations (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.44–0.90). The decision curve analysis revealed that the predicted risk-based decision-making would have higher net benefit than either a CVD intervention strategy for all individuals or no individuals. Conclusions The developed risk prediction models showed a good performance and satisfactory internal validity, which may help understand individual risk and setting personalized goals, and promote risk stratification in public health strategies for CVD prevention.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated secular trends in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and prediabetes, and examined potential explanatory factors for these trends in a Japanese community. METHODS: 4 cross-sectional examinations were conducted among subjects aged 40–79 years in 1988 (n = 2,490), 2002 (n = 2,856), 2007 (n = 2,761), and 2012 (n = 2,644). Glucose tolerance status was defined by a 75g oral glucose tolerance test. RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence of T2DM increased significantly in both sexes from 1988 to 2002, and thereafter it remained stable in men, and decreased nonsignificantly in women from 2002 to 2012. The age-standardized prevalence of prediabetes in men increased significantly between 1988 and 2002, but then decreased significantly. A similar trend was observed in women. The age-specific prevalence of T2DM increased greatly in men aged 60–79 years and women aged 70–79 years from 1988 to 2002, and then plateaued at a high level, while a significant decreasing trend was observed in women aged 40–49 years. The mean values of body mass index (BMI) increased steeply in these elderly subjects from 1988 to 2002, and remained at a high level, whereas those in middle-aged women decreased appreciably over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in Japanese, there was no further increase in the prevalence of T2DM or prediabetes in either men or women in the 2000s. Secular change in the BMI level was likely to contribute to trends in the prevalence of T2DM, and thus the management of obesity may be important to reduce the prevalence of T2DM. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13340-018-0380-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Aims/Introduction The present study aimed to examine cross‐sectional associations between objectively measured sedentary time and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in a general Japanese population, and to elucidate possible mediating roles of diet, obesity and insulin resistance in this relationship. Materials and Methods A total of 1,758 community‐dwelling individuals aged 40–79 years wore an accelerometer for ≥7 days and underwent a comprehensive health examination in 2012. Diabetes mellitus was diagnosed by a 75‐g oral glucose tolerance test. The associations of sedentary time with the presence of diabetes mellitus and the levels of the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance were estimated by logistic and linear regression models. Results After adjustment for demographic and lifestyle factors including moderate‐to‐vigorous physical activity, participants who spent ≥10 h in sedentary time had a significantly higher odds ratio of the presence of diabetes than those who spent

Objectives To investigate the association between daily sleep duration and risk of dementia and death in a Japanese elderly population. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The Hisayama Study, Japan. Participants Community‐dwelling Japanese individuals aged 60 and older without dementia. Measurements Self‐reported daily sleep duration was grouped into 5 categories (

Background: The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to describe the patterns and levels of sedentary time and physical activity (PA) in a general Japanese population. Methods: A total of 1,740 community-dwelling Japanese adults aged ≥40 years participated in this study. Sedentary time and PA were assessed for 7 consecutive days using a tri-axial accelerometer. Daily patterns and levels of sedentary time and PA were calculated by sex, age group (40–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years), and body mass index (BMI

Background Whether the intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) or arachidonic acid (AA) affects the risk of cancer remains unclear, and the association between the serum EPA:AA ratio and cancer risk has not been fully evaluated in general populations. Methods A total of 3098 community-dwelling subjects aged ≥40 years were followed up for 9.6 years (2002–2012). The levels of the serum EPA:AA ratio were categorized into quartiles (0.60). The risk estimates were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. The same analyses were conducted for the serum docosahexaenoic acid to arachidonic acid (DHA:AA) ratio and individual fatty acid concentrations. Results During the follow-up period, 121 subjects died of cancer. Age- and sex-adjusted cancer mortality increased with lower serum EPA:AA ratio levels (P trend0.37). With regard to site-specific cancers, lower serum EPA:AA ratio was associated with a higher risk of death from liver cancer. However, no such associations were detected for deaths from other cancers. Conclusions These findings suggest that decreased level of the serum EPA:AA ratio is a significant risk factor for cancer death in the general Japanese population., Highlights • Lower serum EPA:AA ratio was significantly associated with higher cancer mortality. • The risk of death from liver cancer increased with lower serum EPA:AA ratio. • No significant association was found between serum DHA:AA ratio and cancer death.

There have been very few reports of risk score models for the development of gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk assessment tool for discerning future gastric cancer risk in Japanese. A total of 2444 subjects aged 40 years or over were followed up for 14 years from 1988 (derivation cohort), and 3204 subjects of the same age group were followed up for 5 years from 2002 (validation cohort). The weighting (risk score) of each risk factor for predicting future gastric cancer in the risk assessment tool was determined based on the coefficients of a Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. The goodness of fit of the established risk assessment tool was assessed using the c-statistic and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test in the validation cohort. During the follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 90 subjects in the derivation cohort and 35 subjects in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the risk prediction model for gastric cancer was established using significant risk factors: age, sex, the combination of Helicobacter pylori antibody and pepsinogen status, hemoglobin A1c level, and smoking status. The incidence of gastric cancer increased significantly as the sum of risk scores increased (P trend

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Several observational studies have reported that higher visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is a risk factor for cognitive impairment and dementia. However, no studies have investigated the association of day-to-day blood pressure variability assessed by home blood pressure measurement with the development of dementia. Methods: A total of 1674 community-dwelling Japanese elderly without dementia, ≥60 years of age, were followed up for 5 years (2007–2012). Home blood pressure was measured 3 times every morning for a median of 28 days. Day-to-day systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure variabilities, calculated as coefficients of variation (CoV) of home SBP and diastolic blood pressure, were categorized into quartiles. The hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals of the CoV levels of home blood pressure on the development of all-cause dementia, vascular dementia (VaD), and Alzheimer disease (AD) were computed with a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During the follow-up, 194 subjects developed all-cause dementia; of these, 47 had VaD and 134 had AD. The age- and sex-adjusted incidences of all-cause dementia, VaD, and AD increased significantly with increasing CoV levels of home SBP (all P for trend

Background and Purpose— The influence of dietary protein intake on stroke risk is an area of interest. We investigated the association between dietary protein intake and stroke risk in Japanese, considering sources of protein. Methods— A total of 2400 subjects aged 40 to 79 years were followed up for 19 years. Dietary protein intake was estimated using a 70-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. The risk estimates for incident stroke and its subtypes were calculated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results— During the follow-up, 254 participants experienced stroke events; of these, 172 had ischemic stroke, and 58 had intracerebral hemorrhage. Higher total protein intake was significantly associated with lower risks of stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (both P for trend Conclusions— Our findings suggest that higher dietary protein intake is associated with a reduced risk of stroke in the general Japanese population.

Objective:To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner.Methods:Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years.Results:The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8% in 1985, 4.6% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998, 8.4% in 2005, and 11.3% in 2012, p for trend p for trend p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38–2.06; for AD: aHR 2.07, 95% CI 1.59–2.70; for VaD: aHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.83–1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3% to 65.2%; for AD: 50.7% to 75.1%; all p < 0.01).Conclusions:The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.

Objectives To clarify the effect of tooth loss on development of all-cause dementia and its subtypes in an elderly Japanese population. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The Hisayama Study, Japan. Participants Community-dwelling Japanese adults without dementia aged 60 and older (N = 1,566) were followed for 5 years (2007–2012). Measurements Participants were classified into four categories according to baseline number of remaining teeth (≥20, 10–19, 1–9, 0). The risk estimates of the effect of tooth loss on the development of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD) were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results During follow-up, 180 (11.5%) subjects developed all-cause dementia; 127 (8.1%) had AD, and 42 (2.7%) had VaD. After adjusting for potential confounders, there was a tendency for the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of all-cause dementia to increase with decrease in number of remaining teeth (P for trend = .04). The risk of all-cause dementia was 1.62 times as great in subjects with 10 to 19 teeth, 1.81 times as great in those with one to nine teeth, and 1.63 times as great in those with no teeth as in those with 20 teeth or more. An inverse association was observed between number of remaining teeth and risk of AD (P for trend = .08), but no such association was observed with risk of VaD (P for trend = .20). Conclusion Tooth loss is associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia and AD in the Japanese population.

BACKGROUND Few studies have investigated the association between serum vitamin D levels and mortality in general Asian populations.Methods and Results:We examined the association of serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) levels with the risk of all-cause and cause-specific death in an average 9.5-year follow-up study of 3,292 community-dwelling Japanese subjects aged ≥40 years (2002-2012). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause death increased significantly with lower serum 1,25(OH)2D levels (HR 1.54 [95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.01] for the lowest quartile, 1.31 [0.99-1.73] for the 2nd quartile, 0.94 [0.70-1.25] for the 3rd quartile, 1.00 [Ref.] for highest quartile; P for trend

Aim: It is not clear whether elevated serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) levels are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in subjects with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. Methods: A total of 2,630 community-dwelling Japanese subjects (1,107 men and 1,523 women) without history of CVD and aged ≥ 40 years were prospectively followed up for an average of 19 years, and the association between serum non-HDL-C levels and the incidence of type-specific CVD was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or proteinuria (≥ 1 + on dipstick). Results: At baseline, 357 subjects had CKD. During the follow up, 186 coronary heart disease (CHD) and 277 stroke events occurred. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of CHD was significantly higher in subjects with higher non-HDL-C levels, both in those with and without CKD. In the CKD group, the risk of CHD was significantly higher in those with non-HDL-C levels of 150–189 mg/dL [adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 2.23; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04–4.77] and those with levels ≥ 190 mg/dL (adjusted HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.46–7.03) than in those with levels < 150 mg/dL. In the non-CKD group, the risk of CHD was significantly higher only in those with non-HDL-C levels ≥ 190 mg/dL (adjusted HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.33 –3.38). However, no such association was observed for the risk of stroke. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that higher serum non-HDL-C levels are associated with greater risk of CHD in subjects with and without CKD and that this association is greater in subjects with CKD than in those without CKD.

BACKGROUND The association of morning and evening home blood pressures (HBPs) with carotid atherosclerosis has been uncertain in general populations, so we aimed to investigate it in a general Japanese population.Methods and Results:We performed a cross-sectional survey of 2,856 community-dwelling individuals aged ≥40 years to examine the association of morning and evening HBPs with carotid mean intima-media thickness (IMT). The age- and sex-adjusted geometric averages of carotid mean IMT increased significantly with increasing morning HBP (optimal: 0.67 mm; normal: 0.69 mm; high normal: 0.72 mm; grade 1 hypertension: 0.74 mm; and grade 2+3 hypertension: 0.76 mm) and with increasing evening HBP (0.68 mm, 0.71 mm, 0.73 mm, 0.76 mm, and 0.78 mm, respectively) (both P for trend

Aims: This study aims to investigate the association between serum small dense low-density lipoprotein (sdLDL) cholesterol level and the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a Japanese community. Methods: A total of 3,080 participants without prior cardiovascular disease, aged 40 years or older, were followed up for 8 years. The participants were divided into the quartiles of serum sdLDL cholesterol levels. The risk estimates were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During the follow-up period, 79 subjects developed CHD. Subjects in the highest quartile had a 5.41-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.12–13.82) higher risk of CHD than those in the lowest quartile after controlling for confounders. In the analysis classifying the participants into four groups according to the levels of serum sdLDL cholesterol and serum low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels, the risk of CHD almost doubled in subjects with sdLDL cholesterol of ≥ 32.9 mg/dL (median), regardless of serum LDL cholesterol levels, as compared with subjects with serum sdLDL cholesterol of < 32.9 mg/dL and serum LDL cholesterol of < 120.1 mg/dL (median). When serum sdLDL cholesterol levels were incorporated into a model with known cardiovascular risk factors, c-statistics was significantly increased (from 0.77 to 0.79; p = 0.02), and the net reclassification improvement was also significant (0.40; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The present findings suggest that the serum sdLDL cholesterol level is a relevant biomarker for the future development of CHD that offers benefit beyond the serum LDL cholesterol level and a possible therapeutic target to reduce the burden of CHD in a Japanese community.

Background Epidemiological studies have reported a link between serum LBP (lipopolysaccharide‐binding protein) levels and lifestyle‐related diseases. However, there have been no longitudinal studies investigating the association of serum LBP levels and the incidence of cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) in general populations. Methods and Results A total of 2568 community‐dwelling Japanese individuals 40 years and older without prior CVD were followed for 10 years (2002–2012). Serum LBP levels were divided into quartiles (quartile 1: 2.20–9.68 μg/mL; quartile 2: 9.69–10.93 μg/mL; quartile 3: 10.94–12.40 μg/mL; quartile 4: 12.41–24.34 μg/mL). The hazard ratios ( HR s) and their 95% CI s for the incidence of CVD were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow‐up period, 180 individuals developed CVD . The age‐ and sex‐adjusted cumulative incidence of CVD increased significantly with higher serum LBP levels ( P for trend=0.005). Individuals with higher serum LBP levels had a significantly greater risk of the development of CVD after adjusting for conventional cardiovascular risk factors (quartile 1: HR, 1.00 [reference]; quartile 2: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.60–1.78]; quartile 3: HR, 1.52 [95% CI, 0.92–2.51]; and quartile 4: HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.17–3.09]; P for trend=0.01). This association remained significant after additional adjustment for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance ( P for trend=0.01). However, when additional adjustment was made for high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein, the association was attenuated to the nonsignificant level ( P for trend=0.08). Conclusions The present findings suggest that higher serum LBP levels are associated with increased risk of the development of CVD in the general Japanese population. Low‐grade endotoxemia may contribute to the pathogenesis of CVD through chronic systemic inflammation.

Background Epidemiological evidence implies a link between heart disease and dementia. However, few prospective studies have assessed the association between serum NT ‐pro BNP (N‐terminal pro–B‐type natriuretic peptide) levels and dementia. Methods and Results A total of 1635 community‐dwelling Japanese elderly aged ≥60 years without dementia (57% women, mean age±SD 70.8±7.7 years) were followed up for 10 years. Serum NT ‐pro BNP levels were divided into 4 categories (≤54, 55‐124, 125‐299, and ≥300 pg/mL). The hazard ratios were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow‐up period, 377 subjects developed all‐cause dementia, 247 Alzheimer disease, and 102 vascular dementia. The age‐ and sex‐adjusted incidence of all‐cause dementia was 31.5 per 1000 person‐years and increased significantly with higher serum NT ‐pro BNP levels, being 16.4, 32.0, 35.7, and 45.5, respectively ( P for trend NT ‐pro BNP levels of ≥300 pg/mL had a significantly higher risk of all‐cause dementia (hazard ratio=2.46, 95% CI 1.63‐3.71) than those with serum NT ‐pro BNP levels of ≤54 pg/ mL after adjusting for confounders. Similar risks were observed for Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia. Incorporation of the serum NT ‐pro BNP level into a model with known risk factors for dementia significantly improved the predictive ability for incident dementia (c‐statistics 0.780‐0.787, P =0.02; net reclassification improvement 0.189, P =0.001; integrated discrimination improvement 0.011, P =0.003). Conclusions Higher serum NT ‐pro BNP levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia. Serum NT ‐pro BNP could be a novel biomarker for predicting future risk of dementia in the general elderly population.

Purpose To examine trends in the prevalence of myopia and myopic maculopathy in a general Japanese population. Methods Residents of a Japanese community aged 40 years and older participated in surveys conducted in 2005, 2012, and 2017. Each participant underwent comprehensive eye examinations that included measurements of refractive error, axial lengths, and color fundus photography. Myopic maculopathy was defined according to the criteria of the Meta-analysis of Pathologic Myopia Study Group classification system. Trends in the prevalence of myopia and myopic maculopathy were tested by using a logistic regression analysis fitted by generalized estimating equations to account for individuals submitting to repeated examination. Results The age-adjusted frequencies of myopia increased significantly from 2005 to 2017 (myopia, 37.7%-45.8%; high myopia 5.8%-9.5%; all P for trend

Background: Cholesterol uptake capacity (CUC) is a novel index of the functionality of serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL), which has been reported to be associated with insulin resistance and the cardiovascular risk. However, only a few studies investigated the association of CUC with the development of diabetes. Herein, we assessed the association of CUC with incident type 2 diabetes in a general Japanese population. Methods: A total of 2,162 subjects aged 40-79 years without diabetes underwent comprehensive health examination including 75g OGTT and were followed-up prospectively for a median of 6.0 years. The amount of HDL-contained cholesterol per apolipoprotein A1 levels after incubating the participants’ HDL with cholesterol as CUC were measured at baseline. CUC levels were categorized into quartiles (Q1: Results: During the follow-up period, 219 subjects experienced diabetes. The multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) was significantly decreased with elevating levels of CUC: 1.00 (reference) in Q1, 0.83 (0.57, 1.20) in Q2, 0.77 (0.52, 1.14) in Q3 and 0.64 (0.42, 0.98) in Q4 (p=0.04 for trend). In the analysis combined serum HDL cholesterol level (≤50mg/dl [25 percentile value] vs. >51 mg/dl) and CUC (Q1-Q3 vs. Q4), HRs (95% CIs) for the incident diabetes compared to both low group were 0.72 (0.36, 1.45) in isolated high CUC group, 0.73 (0.50, 1.06) in isolated high HDL cholesterol group, and 0.56 (0.34, 0.93) in both high group (p=0.88 for interaction). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the risk of diabetes decreased with elevating CUC levels independent of HDL cholesterol levels in the general Japanese population. Disclosure Y. Hirakawa: None. R. Toh: Other Relationship; Self; Sysmex Corporation. M. Higashioka: None. M. Yoshinari: None. T. Honda: None. D. Yoshida: None. J. Hata: None. U. Nakamura: None. T. Kitazono: None. T. Ninomiya: Research Support; Self; Asahi Kasei Corporation, Denka Company Limited, DeSC Healthcare, Inc, Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Suntory Beverage & Food Limited, Sysmex Corporation. Funding Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

Objective: Impaired insulin secretion (IIS) and insulin resistance (IR) are the two main mechanisms for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but IIS has been reported to contribute to incident T2D more than IR in Asian populations. However, we assumed that the impact of IR on the incident T2D was being greater in the recent Japanese population, because the burden of obesity increased. Herein, we addressed the magnitude of the contribution of IIS and IR to the development of T2D in a Japanese community. Methods: In 2007, a total of 2,108 residents aged 40-79 years (participation rate 77.1%) without diabetes at baseline underwent health examination including 75g OGTT, insulinogenic index (IGI), and HOMA-IR. Subjects were divided into 4 groups according to the presence or absence of IIS (IGI ≤ 0.4) and IR (1.6 ≤ HOMA-IR) and were followed-up prospectively for a median of 6.9 years. A Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidential intervals (CIs) for incident T2D with adjustment for confounders. The population attributable fraction (PAF) for the development of diabetes due to IS, IR and their combination were calculated. Result: At baseline, the proportions of subjects with neither of IIS nor IR, isolated IIS, isolated IR, and both IIS and IR were 45.5%, 21.0%, 28.7%, and 4.8%, respectively. During follow-up period, 273 subjects developed T2D. The risk of incident T2D was 5.3 (95% CI 3.6-7.9) times higher in subjects with isolated IIS, 4.1 (2.8-6.2) times higher in subjects with isolated IR, and 13.5 (8.5-21.5) times higher in subjects with both IIS and IR than subjects with neither of IIS nor IR. The PAFs on the excess risk of T2D among subjects with isolated IIS, isolated IR and both IIS and IR were 25.8%, 29.1%, and 15.9%, respectively. Conclusion: Our finding suggests that IIS and IR contributed equally to the development of T2D in the recent general Japanese population. Disclosure M. Yoshinari: None. Y. Hirakawa: None. J. Hata: None. M. Higashioka: None. T. Honda: None. D. Yoshida: None. N. Mukai: None. U. Nakamura: None. T. Kitazono: None. T. Ninomiya: Research Support; Self; Asahi Kasei Corporation, Denka Company Limited, DeSC Healthcare, Inc, Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Suntory Beverage & Food Limited, Sysmex Corporation.

Background: Serum Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel biomarker of chronic liver disease including liver fibrosis. Chronic liver disease has been acknowledged to cause glucose intolerance. However, few studies have addressed the association between serum M2BPGi levels and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: A total of 2,143 participants aged 40-79 years without diabetes were followed-up for a median of 7.0 years. Serum M2BPGi levels were measured at baseline and were categorized into quartiles: ≤ 0.40; 0.41-0.55; 0.56-0.75; and ≥0.76 (cut-off index). A Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% CIs for the incident T2D with the adjustment for confounders-namely age, sex, family history of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive agents, serum total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglyceride, use of lipid-modifying agents, BMI, smoking, drinking, regular exercise, and fasting plasma glucose. The impact of serum M2BPGi levels on the predictive ability of incident T2D was evaluated with Harrell’s C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: During follow-up periods, 219 subjects developed T2D. The multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) of developing T2D increased significantly with higher serum M2BPGi levels (p for trend=0.03), being 1.00 (reference) in Q1, 1.38 (0.89-2.15) in Q2, 1.51 (0.95-2.39) in Q3, 1.70 (1.07-2.70) in Q4. The predictive ability of incident T2D was improved by adding serum M2BPGi level to the model comprising aforementioned confounders: Harrell’s c-statistics from 0.787 to 0.795 (p=0.03), cNRI 0.19 (p=0.03), and IDI 0.004 (p=0.07). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that higher serum M2BPGi level was a significant risk factor for T2D in the general Japanese population. Measuring serum M2BPGi level may be effective to detect the high-risk population of T2D. Disclosure M. Higashioka: None. Y. Hirakawa: None. M. Yoshinari: None. T. Honda: None. S. Sakata: None. M. Shibata: None. D. Yoshida: None. J. Hata: None. T. Kitazono: None. H. Osawa: None. T. Ninomiya: Research Support; Self; Asahi Kasei Corporation, Denka Company Limited, DeSC Healthcare, Inc, Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Suntory Beverage & Food Limited, Sysmex Corporation.

Although they are known to share pathophysiological processes, the relationship between periodontitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is not fully understood. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that periodontitis is associated with a greater risk of development of COPD, when smoking is taken into account. The analysis in a 5-y follow-up population-based cohort study was based on 900 community-dwelling Japanese adults (age: 68.8 ± 6.3 [mean ± SD], 46.0% male) without COPD aged 60 or older with at least 1 tooth. Participants were classified into 3 categories according to baseline periodontitis severity (no/mild, moderate, and severe). COPD was spirometrically determined by a fixed ratio of 1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) and by FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal. Poisson regression was used to calculate the relative risk (RR) of developing COPD according to the severity of periodontitis. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was also calculated. During follow-up, 22 (2.4%) subjects developed COPD. Compared with no/mild periodontitis subjects, a significantly increased risk of COPD occurred among severe periodontitis subjects (RR = 3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18 to 10.67), but no significant differences were observed between the no/mild and moderate categories (RR = 1.48; 95% CI, 0.56 to 3.90). After adjustment for potential confounders, including smoking intensity, the relationship between severe periodontitis and risk of COPD remained significant (RR = 3.51; 95% CI, 1.15 to 10.74). Likewise, there was a positive association of periodontitis severity with risk of COPD ( P for trend = 0.043). The PAF for COPD due to periodontitis was 22.6%. These data highlight the potential importance of periodontitis as a risk factor for COPD.

ObjectivesChronic obstructive airway disease, which is characterised by airflow limitation, is a major burden on public health. Reductions in environmental pollution in the atmosphere and workplace and a decline in the prevalence of smoking over recent decades may have affected the prevalence of airflow limitation in Japan. The present epidemiological study aimed to evaluate trends in the prevalence of airflow limitation and in the influence of risk factors on airflow limitation in a Japanese community.DesignTwo serial cross-sectional surveys.SettingData from the Hisayama Study, a population-based prospective study that has been longitudinally conducted since 1961.ParticipantsA total of 1842 and 3033 residents aged ≥40 years with proper spirometric measurements participated in the 1967 and 2012 surveys, respectively.Main outcome measuresAirflow limitation was defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity ResultsThe age-standardised prevalence of airflow limitation decreased from 1967 to 2012 in both sexes (from 26.3% to 16.1% in men and from 19.8% to 10.5% in women). Smoking was significantly associated with higher likelihood of airflow limitation in both surveys, although the magnitude of its influence was greater in 2012 than in 1967 (the multivariable-adjusted OR was 1.63 (95% CI 1.19 to 2.24) in 1967 and 2.26 (95% CI 1.72 to 2.99) in 2012; p=0.007 for heterogeneity). Accordingly, the population attributable fraction of smoking on airflow limitation was 33.5% in 2012, which was 1.5-fold higher than that in 1967 (21.1%).ConclusionsThe prevalence of airflow limitation was decreased over 45 years in Japan, but the influence of smoking on airflow limitation increased with time.

To assess the association between axial length (AL) and the prevalence of myopic maculopathy in a general Japanese population.Population-based cross-sectional study.A total of 2790 Hisayama residents 40 years of age or older who consented to participate and had available data of AL and fundus photographs for the right eyes were enrolled in this study.Myopic maculopathy was defined as the presence of diffuse chorioretinal atrophy, patchy chorioretinal atrophy, or macular degeneration. The optimal cutoff values of axial length for identifying myopic maculopathy were estimated from the receiver operating characteristic curve. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a logistic regression analysis.Odds ratios of AL for prevalent myopic maculopathy and the optimal cutoff values of AL for detecting myopic maculopathy.Longer AL was associated significantly with prevalence of myopic maculopathy in both genders. The optimal cutoff values of AL for identifying myopic maculopathy were 25.9 mm in men and 25.3 mm in women. Participants with ALs of these values or longer showed a significantly higher OR for myopic maculopathy than those with AL of less than these values (men: OR, 21.23; 95% CI, 8.74-51.57; women: OR, 38.49; 95% CI, 18.03-86.49).The present study found that there was a positive association between AL and the likelihood of myopic maculopathy, and the cutoff levels of AL for identifying myopic maculopathy were 25.9 mm in men and 25.3 mm in women. Our findings suggest that patients with AL close to or longer than these values should undergo intensive treatment and detailed ophthalmic follow-up.