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The role of genetic heterogeneity within neoplasms is increasingly recognized as important for understanding the dynamics of cancer progression, cancer stem cells, and therapeutic resistance, and there is interest in intratumoral heterogeneity measurements as potential biomarkers for risk stratification. In this issue of the JCI, Park et al. characterize this genetic diversity in carcinoma in situ and in invasive regions from 3 types of human breast cancers and lay the groundwork for translation of these measures to the clinic.

Aneuploidy is a ubiquitous feature of cancer and pre-cancerous lesions, yet its significance is poorly characterized. In this chapter, we review the role oftetraploidy and aneuploidy in progression. We examine how aneuploidy may contribute to the evolutionary dynamics prevalent in neoplastic progression, considering whether aneuploidy itself is selectively neutral or advantageous or if it simply acts as a mechanism for the more rapid accumulation of mutations increasing survival and reproduction of cancer cells. We also review evidence from Barrett's esophagus, a pre-malignant condition, demonstrating that tetraploidy and aneuploidy are correlated with an increased risk of progression to cancer. Ultimately, we aim provide testable hypotheses and methods for understanding the role of aneuploidy in cancer.

Purpose: Chromosomal instability, as assessed by many techniques, including DNA content aneuploidy, loss of heterozygosity, and comparative genomic hybridization, has consistently been reported to be common in cancer and rare in normal tissues. Recently, a panel of chromosome instability biomarkers, including loss of heterozygosity and DNA content, has been reported to identify patients at high and low risk of progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), but required multiple platforms for implementation. Although chromosomal instability involving amplifications and deletions of chromosome regions have been observed in nearly all cancers, copy number alterations (CNA) in premalignant tissues have not been well characterized or evaluated in cohort studies as biomarkers of cancer risk., Experimental Design: We examined CNAs in 98 patients having either BE or EA using Bacterial Artificial Chromosome (BAC) array comparative genomic hybridization to characterize CNAs at different stages of progression ranging from early BE to advanced EA., Results: CNAs were rare in early stages (less than high-grade dysplasia) but were progressively more frequent and larger in later stages (high-grade dysplasia and EA), including high-level amplifications. The number of CNAs correlated highly with DNA content aneuploidy. Patients whose biopsies contained CNAs involving >70 Mbp were at increased risk of progression to DNA content abnormalities or EA (hazards ratio, 4.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-14.8; P = 0.0047), and the risk increased as more of the genome was affected., Conclusions: Genome-wide analysis of CNAs provides a common platform for the evaluation of chromosome instability for cancer risk assessment as well as for the identification of common regions of alteration that can be further studied for biomarker discovery.

There is increasing evidence that Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection provides insights into the etiology and treatment of cancer. On a microscopic scale, neoplastic cells meet the conditions for evolution by Darwinian selection: cell reproduction with heritable variability that affects cell survival and replication. This suggests that, like other areas of biological and biomedical research, Darwinian theory can provide a general framework for understanding many aspects of cancer, including problems of great clinical importance. With the availability of raw molecular data increasing rapidly, this theory may provide guidance in translating data into understanding and progress. Several conceptual and analytical tools from evolutionary biology can be applied to cancer biology. Two clinical problems may benefit most from the application of Darwinian theory: neoplastic progression and acquired therapeutic resistance. The Darwinian theory of cancer has especially profound implications for drug development, both in terms of explaining past difficulties, and pointing the way toward new approaches. Because cancer involves complex evolutionary processes, research should incorporate both tractable (simplified) experimental systems, and also longitudinal observational studies of the evolutionary dynamics of cancer in laboratory animals and in human patients. Cancer biology will require new tools to control the evolution of neoplastic cells.

Chromosome copy gain, loss, and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) involving most chromosomes have been reported in many cancers; however, less is known about chromosome instability in premalignant conditions. 17p LOH and DNA content abnormalities have been previously reported to predict progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). Here, we evaluated genome-wide chromosomal instability in multiple stages of BE and EA in whole biopsies. Forty-two patients were selected to represent different stages of progression from BE to EA. Whole BE or EA biopsies were minced, and aliquots were processed for flow cytometry and genotyped with a paired constitutive control for each patient using 33,423 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). Copy gains, losses, and LOH increased in frequency and size between early- and late-stage BE (P < 0.001), with SNP abnormalities increasing from <2% to >30% in early and late stages, respectively. A set of statistically significant events was unique to either early or late, or both, stages, including previously reported and novel abnormalities. The total number of SNP alterations was highly correlated with DNA content aneuploidy and was sensitive and specific to identify patients with concurrent EA (empirical receiver operating characteristic area under the curve = 0.91). With the exception of 9p LOH, most copy gains, losses, and LOH detected in early stages of BE were smaller than those detected in later stages, and few chromosomal events were common in all stages of progression. Measures of chromosomal instability can be quantified in whole biopsies using SNP-based genotyping and have potential to be an integrated platform for cancer risk stratification in BE.

Background: Genomes store information for building and maintaining organisms. Complete sequencing of many genomes provides the opportunity to study and compare global information properties of those genomes., Results: We have analyzed aspects of the information content of Homo sapiens, Mus musculus, Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, Arabidopsis thaliana, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Escherichia coli (K-12) genomes. Virtually all possible (> 98%) 12 bp oligomers appear in vertebrate genomes while < 2% of 19 bp oligomers are present. Other species showed different ranges of > 98% to < 2% of possible oligomers in D. melanogaster (12-17 bp), C. elegans (11-17 bp), A. thaliana (11-17 bp), S. cerevisiae (10-16 bp) and E. coli (9-15 bp). Frequencies of unique oligomers in the genomes follow similar patterns. We identified a set of 2.6 M 15-mers that are more than 1 nucleotide different from all 15-mers in the human genome and so could be used as probes to detect microbes in human samples. In a human sample, these probes would detect 100% of the 433 currently fully sequenced prokaryotes and 75% of the 3065 fully sequenced viruses. The human genome is significantly more compact in sequence space than a random genome. We identified the most frequent 5- to 20-mers in the human genome, which may prove useful as PCR primers. We also identified a bacterium, Anaeromyxobacter dehalogenans, which has an exceptionally low diversity of oligomers given the size of its genome and its GC content. The entropy of coding regions in the human genome is significantly higher than non-coding regions and chromosomes. However chromosomes 1, 2, 9, 12 and 14 have a relatively high proportion of coding DNA without high entropy, and chromosome 20 is the opposite with a low frequency of coding regions but relatively high entropy., Conclusion: Measures of the frequency of oligomers are useful for designing PCR assays and for identifying chromosomes and organisms with hidden structure that had not been previously recognized. This information may be used to detect novel microbes in human tissues.

Clonal expansion of premalignant lesions is an important step in the progression to cancer. This process is commonly considered to be a consequence of sustaining a proliferative mutation. Here, we investigate whether the growth trajectory of clones can be better described by a model in which clone growth does not depend on a proliferative advantage. We developed a simple computer model of clonal expansion in an epithelium in which mutant clones can only colonize space left unoccupied by the death of adjacent normal stem cells. In this model, competition for space occurs along the frontier between mutant and normal territories, and both the shapes and the growth rates of lesions are governed by the differences between mutant and normal cells' replication or apoptosis rates. The behavior of this model of clonal expansion along a mutant clone's frontier, when apoptosis of both normal and mutant cells is included, matches the growth of UVB-induced p53-mutant clones in mouse dorsal epidermis better than a standard exponential growth model that does not include tissue architecture. The model predicts precancer cell mutation and death rates that agree with biological observations. These results support the hypothesis that clonal expansion of premalignant lesions can be driven by agents, such as ionizing or nonionizing radiation, that cause cell killing but do not directly stimulate cell replication.

Cell differentiation in multicellular organisms has the obvious function during development of creating new cell types. However, in long-lived organisms with extensive cell turnover, cell differentiation often continues after new cell types are no longer needed or produced. Here, we address the question of why this is true. It is believed that multicellular organisms could not have arisen or been evolutionarily stable without possessing mechanisms to suppress somatic selection among cells within organisms, which would otherwise disrupt organismal integrity. Here, we propose that one such mechanism is a specific pattern of ongoing cell differentiation commonly found in metazoans with cell turnover, which we call "serial differentiation." This pattern involves a sequence of differentiation stages, starting with self-renewing somatic stem cells and proceeding through several (non-self-renewing) transient amplifying cell stages before ending with terminally differentiated cells. To test the hypothesis that serial differentiation can suppress somatic evolution, we used an agent-based computer simulation of cell population dynamics and evolution within tissues. The results indicate that, relative to other, simpler patterns, tissues organized into serial differentiation experience lower rates of detrimental cell-level evolution. Self-renewing cell populations are susceptible to somatic evolution, while those that are not self-renewing are not. We find that a mutation disrupting differentiation can create a new self-renewing cell population that is vulnerable to somatic evolution. These results are relevant not only to understanding the evolutionary origins of multicellularity, but also the causes of pathologies such as cancer and senescence in extant metazoans, including humans.

Objectives: Previous studies that evaluated extent of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) as a risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) in Barrett's esophagus (BE) were conflicting, and no prior study has evaluated extent of low-grade dysplasia (LGD) as a risk factor. The aim of this discovery study was to evaluate the hypothesis that extent of LGD and HGD are risk factors for progression to EA., Methods: We evaluated baseline biopsies from 77 BE patients with dysplasia including 44 who progressed to EA and 33 who did not progress during follow-up. The total numbers of LGD and HGD crypts were determined separately by counting all crypts and the extent of LGD, HGD, and total dysplasia were correlated with EA outcome., Results: Thirty-one and 46 patients had a maximum diagnosis of LGD and HGD, respectively. When the crypts were stratified by dysplasia grade, the mean number of LGD crypts per patient was borderline higher in progressors (93.9) compared with nonprogressors (41.2, P= 0.07), and the mean proportion of LGD crypts per patient was significantly higher in progressors (46.4%vs 26.0%, P= 0.037). Neither the mean number of HGD crypts per patient (P= 0.14) nor the mean proportion of HGD crypts per patient (P= 0.20) was significantly associated with EA outcome., Conclusions: The extent of LGD is a significant risk factor for the development of EA in BE in this study. Although the presence of HGD is significantly associated with a greater relative risk for development of EA, the extent of HGD was not an independent risk factor for progression.

Background: Somatic genetic CDKN2A, TP53, and DNA content abnormalities are common in many human cancers and their precursors, including esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett's esophagus (BE), conditions for which aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been proposed as possible chemopreventive agents; however, little is known about the ability of a biomarker panel to predict progression to cancer nor how NSAID use may modulate progression. We aimed to evaluate somatic genetic abnormalities with NSAIDs as predictors of EA in a prospective cohort study of patients with BE., Methods and Findings: Esophageal biopsies from 243 patients with BE were evaluated at baseline for TP53 and CDKN2A (p16) alterations, tetraploidy, and aneuploidy using sequencing; loss of heterozygosity (LOH); methylation-specific PCR; and flow cytometry. At 10 y, all abnormalities, except CDKN2A mutation and methylation, contributed to EA risk significantly by univariate analysis, ranging from 17p LOH (relative risk [RR] = 10.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2-21.3, p < 0.001) to 9p LOH (RR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.1-6.0, p = 0.03). A panel of abnormalities including 17p LOH, DNA content tetraploidy and aneuploidy, and 9p LOH was the best predictor of EA (RR = 38.7; 95% CI 10.8-138.5, p < 0.001). Patients with no baseline abnormality had a 12% 10-y cumulative EA incidence, whereas patients with 17p LOH, DNA content abnormalities, and 9p LOH had at least a 79.1% 10-y EA incidence. In patients with zero, one, two, or three baseline panel abnormalities, there was a significant trend toward EA risk reduction among NSAID users compared to nonusers (p = 0.01). The strongest protective effect was seen in participants with multiple genetic abnormalities, with NSAID nonusers having an observed 10-y EA risk of 79%, compared to 30% for NSAID users (p < 0.001)., Conclusions: A combination of 17p LOH, 9p LOH, and DNA content abnormalities provided better EA risk prediction than any single TP53, CDKN2A, or DNA content lesion alone. NSAIDs are associated with reduced EA risk, especially in patients with multiple high-risk molecular abnormalities.

The multistage carcinogenesis of esophageal adenocarcinoma is a process of clonal evolution within Barrett's esophagus neoplasms. The initiating event for Barrett's esophagus is unknown, but is associated with chronic gastric reflux which probably also promotes progression. Inactivation of both alleles of CDKN2A appear to be early events causing clonal expansion. Clones with TP53 inactivated expand if they have already inactivated CDKN2A. After TP53 has been inactivated, tetraploid and aneuploid clones tend to develop. The final events that lead to invasion and metastasis are unknown. Evolutionary biology provides important tools to understand clonal evolution in progression and cancer prevention.

Neoplasms are microcosms of evolution. Within a neoplasm, a mosaic of mutant cells compete for space and resources, evade predation by the immune system and can even cooperate to disperse and colonize new organs. The evolution of neoplastic cells explains both why we get cancer and why it has been so difficult to cure. The tools of evolutionary biology and ecology are providing new insights into neoplastic progression and the clinical control of cancer.

Background: Defects in DNA damage recognition and repair have been associated with a wide variety of cancers. We conducted a prospective study to determine whether mutagen sensitivity, as determined by an in vitro assay, was associated with the future development of cancer in patients with Barrett's esophagus, which is associated with increased risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma., Methods: We measured sensitivity to bleomycin in peripheral blood lymphocytes in a cohort of 220 patients with Barrett's esophagus. We followed these patients for 1,230 person-years (range, 3 months to 10.1 years; median, 6.4 years), using development of cancer and aneuploidy as end points. A subset of these patients was evaluated for inactivation of tumor-suppressor genes CDKN2A/p16 and TP53 [by mutation and loss of heterozygosity (LOH)] in their Barrett's segments at the time of, or before, the bleomycin test, and the patients were stratified by CDKN2A/p16 and TP53 status in an analysis of mutagen sensitivity and progression., Results: Bleomycin-sensitive patients were found to be at significantly greater risk of developing aneuploidy (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.44-9.53) and nonsignificantly greater risk of cancer (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-3.75). Among patients with detectable LOH at the TP53 locus (on chromosome 17p), increasing bleomycin sensitivity was associated with increased risk of developing cancer (P(trend) < 0.001) and aneuploidy (P(trend) = 0.005)., Conclusions: This study supports the hypothesis that sensitivity to mutagens increases the risk of neoplastic progression in persons with Barrett's esophagus, particularly those with 17p LOH including TP53.

This article reviews progress in chemopreventive drug development, especially data and concepts that are new since the 2002 AACR report on treatment and prevention of intraepithelial neoplasia. Molecular biomarker expressions involved in mechanisms of carcinogenesis and genetic progression models of intraepithelial neoplasia are discussed and analyzed for how they can inform mechanism-based, molecularly targeted drug development as well as risk stratification, cohort selection, and end-point selection for clinical trials. We outline the concept of augmenting the risk, mechanistic, and disease data from histopathologic intraepithelial neoplasia assessments with molecular biomarker data. Updates of work in 10 clinical target organ sites include new data on molecular progression, significant completed trials, new agents of interest, and promising directions for future clinical studies. This overview concludes with strategies for accelerating chemopreventive drug development, such as integrating the best science into chemopreventive strategies and regulatory policy, providing incentives for industry to accelerate preventive drugs, fostering multisector cooperation in sharing clinical samples and data, and creating public-private partnerships to foster new regulatory policies and public education.

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). Therefore, the presence of BE identifies a high-risk group of patients who may be followed-up for early detection of EA and treated to reduce the risk for its progression. The initiating event for BE is unknown, although it is associated with chronic gastric reflux. Many of the genetic lesions involved in BE neoplastic progression are known, including loss of CDKN2A (p16) and TP53 (p53) and the development of tetraploidy and aneuploidy. Intensive endoscopic surveillance has been shown to improve survival although it can be difficult to implement in practice. Several exposures may be altered to reduce the risk for progression, including weight, diet, and the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. However, most of these results should be confirmed in additional cohorts before they are used to change clinical practice.

Neoplasms are thought to progress to cancer through genetic instability generating cellular diversity and clonal expansions driven by selection for mutations in cancer genes. Despite advances in the study of molecular biology of cancer genes, relatively little is known about evolutionary mechanisms that drive neoplastic progression. It is unknown, for example, which may be more predictive of future progression of a neoplasm: genetic homogenization of the neoplasm, possibly caused by a clonal expansion, or the accumulation of clonal diversity. Here, in a prospective study, we show that clonal diversity measures adapted from ecology and evolution can predict progression to adenocarcinoma in the premalignant condition known as Barrett's esophagus, even when controlling for established genetic risk factors, including lesions in TP53 (p53; ref. 6) and ploidy abnormalities. Progression to cancer through accumulation of clonal diversity, on which natural selection acts, may be a fundamental principle of neoplasia with important clinical implications.

Background and Aims: 17p (TP53) loss of heterozygosity (LOH) has been reported to be predictive of progression from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma, but the mechanism by which TP53 LOH develops is unknown. It could be (a) DNA deletion, (b) LOH without copy number change, or (c) tetraploidy followed by genetic loss. If an alternative biomarker assay, such as fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), provided equivalent results, then translation to the clinic might be accelerated, because LOH genotyping is presently limited to research centers., Methods: We evaluated mechanisms of TP53 LOH to determine if FISH and TP53 LOH provided equivalent results on the same flow-sorted samples (n = 43) representing established stages of clonal progression (diploid, diploid with TP53 LOH, aneuploid) in 19 esophagectomy specimens., Results: LOH developed by all three mechanisms: 32% had DNA deletions, 32% had no copy number change, and 37% had FISH patterns consistent with a tetraploid intermediate followed by genetic loss. Thus, FISH and LOH are not equivalent (P < 0.000001)., Conclusions: LOH develops by multiple chromosome mechanisms in Barrett's esophagus, all of which can be detected by genotyping. FISH cannot detect LOH without copy number change, and dual-probe FISH is required to detect the complex genetic changes associated with a tetraploid intermediate. Alternative biomarker assay development should be guided by appreciation and evaluation of the biological mechanisms generating the biomarker abnormality to detect potential sources of discordance. FISH will require validation in adequately powered longitudinal studies before implementation as a clinical diagnostic for esophageal adenocarcinoma risk prediction.

Neoplasms progress to cancer through a process of natural selection. The rate of evolution, and thus progression is determined by three parameters: mutation rate, population size of the evolving neoplastic cells, and intensity of selection or rate of clonal expansion. All three parameters are reviewed in the context of Barrett's esophagus, a pre-malignant neoplasm. Although Barrett's esophagus is an ideal model for the study of neoplastic clonal evolution, similar studies may be carried out in a wide variety of human neoplasms. Evolutionary analyses provide insights for clinical management, including rates of progression to cancer and emergence of resistance to interventions.

Chronic proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy may lead to partial regression of Barrett's esophagus (BE), resulting in the development of reepithelialized islands of squamous mucosa that may cover the underlying BE. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical, histologic, and biologic characteristics of BE that is situated underneath squamous islands (BUSI). A total of 97 mucosal biopsies from 44 BE patients with BUSI were evaluated for a variety of histologic features (eg, type of epithelium, anatomic relationship of the underlying glands to the luminal surface, presence of adjacent mucosal glands or ducts, and the presence and degree of dysplasia), and immunostained for Ki-67, cyclin D1, and p53. BUSI was compared with adjacent areas of BE for all parameters. A clinical control group consisting of 50 BE patients without microscopic evidence of BUSI was selected for comparison of clinical and endoscopic features. The study group (34 males, 10 females; mean age, 67 years; mean length of BE, 5.5 cm) consisted of 27 (61%) and 12 (27%) patients on low- and high-dose PPI, respectively. On endoscopy, visible islands of squamous mucosa were noted in only 43% of study group patients (despite the presence of BUSI microscopically in all cases); one island was noted in 2%, multiple islands in 27%, and extensive islands in 14% of patients. The extent of squamous islands was unrelated to PPI dose. The study group was significantly more likely to have endoscopic evidence of extensive squamous islands compared with the control group (P = 0.009). Histologically, 89% of biopsies with BUSI showed intestinal-type, and 11% showed cardia-type, epithelium. Low- and high-grade dysplasia was noted in 4 (4%) and 5 (5%) biopsies, respectively. All patients with dysplasia in BUSI also showed dysplasia in other areas of the esophagus as well. Interestingly, BUSI reached the mucosal surface either by penetrating directly through, or by wrapping around, islands of squamous epithelium, in 68% of biopsies. Twenty-one percent of biopsies showed BUSI adjacent to submucosal glands or ducts. BUSI showed a significantly lower Ki-67 proliferation rate (29% vs. 49%, P < 0.001), and a lower, albeit nonsignificant, degree of cyclin D1 (16% vs. 29%) and p53 (4% vs. 17%) positivity in comparison to adjacent areas of BE. Furthermore, significantly lower proliferation rates were observed in BUSI that did not reveal an opening to the mucosal surface in comparison to foci that did. BUSI is phenotypically similar to typical surface BE but shows less severe proliferative abnormalities, particularly in buried glands that have no detectable connection to the esophageal lumen. Reduced proliferation may be due either to decreased exposure to luminal contents or to disruption of sloughing of surface epithelial cells into the crypt lumen. Prospective studies of large numbers of patients with BUSI will be required to determine the magnitude of its risk of progression to cancer.

There is debate in the literature over the relative importance of genetic instability and clonal expansion during progression to cancer. Barrett's esophagus is a uniquely suited model to investigate neoplastic progression prospectively because periodic endoscopic biopsy surveillance is recommended for early detection of esophageal adenocarcinoma. We hypothesized that expansion of clones with genetic instability would predict progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma. We measured p16 (CDKN2A/INK4A) lesions (loss of heterozygosity, mutations, and CpG island methylation), p53 (TP53) lesions (loss of heterozygosity, mutation) and ploidy abnormalities (aneuploidy, tetraploidy) within each Barrett's esophagus segment of a cohort of 267 research participants, who were followed prospectively with cancer as an outcome. We defined the size of a lesion as the fraction of cells with the lesion multiplied by the length of the Barrett's esophagus segment. A Cox proportional hazards regression indicates that the sizes of clones with p53 loss of heterozygosity (relative risk = 1.27(x) for an x cm clone; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.50) or ploidy abnormalities (relative risk = 1.31(x) for an x cm clone; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.60) predict progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma better than the mere presence of such clones (likelihood ratio test, P < 0.01). Controlling for length of the Barrett's esophagus segment had little effect. The size of a clone with a p16 lesion is not a significant predictor of esophageal adenocarcinoma when we controlled for p53 loss of heterozygosity status. The combination of clonal expansion and genetic instability is a better predictor of cancer outcome than either alone. This implies that interventions that limit expansion of genetically unstable clones may reduce risk of progression to cancer.

Cells in neoplasms evolve by natural selection. Traditional cytotoxic chemotherapies add further selection pressure to the evolution of neoplastic cells, thereby selecting for cells resistant to the therapies. An alternative proposal is a benign cell booster. Rather than trying to kill the highly dysplastic or malignant cells directly, a benign cell booster increases the fitness of the more benign cells, which may be either normal or benign clones, so that they may outcompete more advanced or malignant cells in a neoplasm. In silico simulations of benign cell boosters in neoplasms with evolving clones show benign cell boosters to be effective at destroying advanced or malignant cells and preventing relapse even when applied late in progression. These results are conditional on the benign cell boosters giving a competitive advantage to the benign cells in the neoplasm. Furthermore, the benign cell boosters must be applied over a long period of time in order for the benign cells to drive the dysplastic cells to extinction or near extinction. Most importantly, benign cell boosters based on this strategy must target a characteristic of the benign cells that is causally related to the benign state to avoid relapse. Another promising strategy is to boost cells that are sensitive to a cytotoxin, thereby selecting for chemosensitive cells, and then apply the toxin. Effective therapeutic and prevention strategies will have to alter the competitive dynamics of a neoplasm to counter progression toward invasion, metastasis, and death.

Neoplastic progression is an evolutionary process characterized by genomic instability and waves of clonal expansions carrying genetic and epigenetic lesions to fixation (100% of the cell population). However, an evolutionarily neutral lesion may also reach fixation if it spreads as a hitchhiker on a selective sweep. We sought to distinguish advantageous lesions from hitchhikers in the premalignant condition Barrett's esophagus. Patients (211) had biopsies taken at 2-cm intervals in their Barrett's segments. Purified epithelial cells were assayed for loss of heterozygosity and microsatellite shifts on chromosomes 9 and 17, sequence mutations in CDKN2A/MTS1/INK4a (p16) and TP53 (p53), and methylation of the p16 promoter. We measured the expanse of a lesion in a Barrett's segment as the proportion of proliferating cells that carried a lesion in that locus. We then selected the lesion having expanses >90% in the greatest number of patients as our first putative advantageous lesion. We filtered out hitchhikers by removing all expanses of other lesions that did not occur independent of the advantageous lesion. The entire process was repeated on the remaining expanses to identify additional advantageous lesions. p16 loss of heterozygosity, promoter methylation, and sequence mutations have strong, independent, advantageous effects on Barrett's cells early in progression. Second lesions in p16 and p53 are associated with later selective sweeps. Virtually all of the other lesion expansions, including microsatellite shifts, could be explained as hitchhikers on p16 lesion clonal expansions. These techniques can be applied to any neoplasm.

We previously used simulations of gene expression to demonstrate that rapid activation and deactivation rates stabilized outcomes in stochastic systems. We hypothesized that transient single allele inactivation of an autosomal gene during gametogenesis or very early embryogenesis could have a selective advantage if it permits the functional sampling of each allele and precludes committing maternal effort to an embryo with a deleterious mutation. To test this hypothesis, we simulated the evolution of gene expression activation and deactivation rates and imposed two different selective pressures on the populations: (a). late selection against individuals that cannot maintain a threshold level of gene product that occurs after the investment of maternal effort (i.e., after birth); or (b). early selection: in addition to late selection, maintenance of the gene product above a threshold level was necessary for early development prior to commitment of maternal effort. We found that the opportunity to save reproductive effort from early selection caused the evolution of higher deactivation rates and lower activation rates than in the late selection condition. Thus, we predict that in the special case where early selection can save maternal investment in non-viable offspring, gene expression activation rates and deactivation rates might be selected to permit sampling of the product from each allele.

The transformation of normal cells into cancerous cells is an evolutionary process. Populations of precancerous cells reproduce, mutate, and compete for resources. Some of these mutations eventually lead to cancer. We calculate the probability of developing cancer under a set of simplifying assumptions and then elaborate these calculations, culminating in a simple simulation of the cell dynamics. The agent-based model allows us to examine the interactions of mutations critical for the development of cancer that are either evolutionarily neutral or selective. We can also examine the interaction of these mutations with a "mutator phenotype" derived from mutations that raise the mutation rate for the entire cell. The simulations suggest that there must be at least two selectively neutral mutations necessary for the development of cancer and that preventive treatments will be most effective when they increase this number. The model also suggests that selective mutations facilitate the development of cancer, so that the more selective mutations necessary for the development of cancer, the greater the chance of developing it.

L. M. Adleman launched the field of DNA computing with a demonstration in 1994 that strands of DNA could be used to solve the Hamiltonian path problem for a simple graph. He also identified three broad categories of open questions for the field. First, is DNA capable of universal computation? Second, what kinds of algorithms can DNA implement? Third, can the error rates in the manipulations of the DNA be controlled enough to allow for useful computation? In the two years that have followed, theoretical work has shown that DNA is in fact capable of universal computation. Furthermore, algorithms for solving interesting questions, like breaking the Data Encryption Standard, have been described using currently available technology and methods. Finally, a few algorithms have been proposed to handle some of the apparently crippling error rates in a few of the common processes used to manipulate DNA. It is thus unlikely that DNA computation is doomed to be only a passing curiosity. However, much work remains to be done on the containment and correction of errors. It is far from clear if the problems in the error rates can be solved sufficiently to ever allow for general-purpose computation that will challenge the more popular substrates for computation. Unfortunately, biological demonstrations of the theoretical results have been sadly lacking. To date, only the simplest of computations have been carried out in DNA. To make significant progress, the field will require both the assessment of the practicality of the different manipulations of DNA and the implementation of algorithms for realistic problems. Theoreticians, in collaboration with experimentalists, can contribute to this research program by settling on a small set of practical and efficient models for DNA computation.